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reds44
05-19-2008, 07:51 PM
It seems to me that the majority of threads on redszone have been about how he gets a free pass and is "overrated." My question is, why?

His numbers:
.293/.339/.524
.863 OPS
8 HR
24 RBI
86 TB (leads team)
10 2B
2 3B
6 SB

1 error
.994 Fielding%

Why the hate for BP on redszone?

reds44
05-19-2008, 07:55 PM
Fixed. Sorry about that.

OnBaseMachine
05-19-2008, 08:02 PM
Phillips seems to be improving his plate discipline a bit, though he still swings at quite a few bad pitches. He walked only 35 times in 536 atbats in 2006, 33 times in 650 atbats last season, but this season he's already walked 12 times in 164 atbats and is on pace for 46 walks in 625 atbats. He's already a good player but if he can continue to improve his walk and get his OBP up over .340 then he could really take his game to another level.

Joseph
05-19-2008, 08:05 PM
Simple.

The team is losing.

As long as the team is losing, it doesn't matter. Everyone is and will continue to be fair game.

BP is a good player. I saw how excited he was to sweep the Indians [personal vendetta plays in I'm sure] but he was thrilled to get an RBI groundout I noticed. Doesn't matter though until this team starts to win. Once they do, he'll be a little more revered.

Redhook
05-19-2008, 08:06 PM
I like BP a lot. I don't think he gets a free pass or is overrated. I do think he is miscast in the 4th spot. That's a huge problem, but it's not BP's fault. It's Dusty's. BP really should be batting 6th in this lineup.

The other problem is desire to take a walk. If BP could become a little less of a hacker up there and learn to draw a walk more often he would become an amazing player, someone that could bat anywhere in the order.

That being said, in a few years if he's producing the same and making over $10 million the "free pass" for BP will no longer exist.

coachw513
05-19-2008, 08:10 PM
IMHO it is yet another example of being mis-cast by Dusty...I think much less angst would be directed at Phillips were he not hitting 4th against RH pitching...

As for me, I'm thrilled we have a GG-caliber middle IF with pop and speed locked up for the prime of his career...occasional free-swinging ways and all...

RedsManRick
05-19-2008, 08:22 PM
For me it's not about hate, just proper understanding. Phillips is a very valuable and overall productive player -- I don't think anybody has disagreed with that point. The problem is I see it is in the application. He's a great overall player, but he's got weaknesses in his game. You simply cannot talk about his offensive production without looking at his split stats.

2008
vR: 125 PA, .241/.288/.353 (.641 OPS)
vL: 52 PA, .417/.462/.938 (1.400 OPS)

Career:
vR: 1380 PA, .249/.293/.394 (.688 OPS)
vL: 548 PA, .304/.350/.516 (.866 OPS)

What does this mean? Against right handed pitching, Phillips is Neifi Perez (.672 OPS). Against left handed pitcher, he's Jeff Kent (.858 OPS). And unfortunately, 70% of his at bats are against right handed pitching. In 70% of his plate appearances, he's a replacement level player. In the other 30%, he's a hall-of-famer. Again, on balance, he's a very good player.

The problem as I mentioned earlier is in the application. Why is he batting clean-up versus right handed pitching? It's ridiculous. And not only is he batting up there versus righties, but his presence up there prevents better hitters from getting those at bats.

Here are the Reds starters versus right handed pitching in their careers:



BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Griffey .297 .386 .570 .956
2 Dunn .251 .389 .535 .925
3 Votto .298 .344 .574 .919
4 Encarnacion .272 .336 .456 .792
5 Freel .276 .359 .375 .735
6 Patterson .263 .305 .427 .732
7 Keppinger .291 .339 .386 .725
8 Ross .214 .294 .420 .714
9 Gonzalez .249 .295 .399 .693
10 Phillips .249 .293 .394 .688
11 Bako .245 .321 .330 .651

Starting with this knowledge, how can you possibly justify Phillips batting cleanup against a righty starter in any lineup configuration. It's really indefensible. The problem isn't with Phillips per se', it's frustration that he's being hailed as the new face of the Reds who can do everything while while a MAJOR hole in his game goes completely ignored. At the same time, other Reds get nitpicked to death for every single thing they do (or don't do) -- as if they can do no wrong.

It's the disproportionate lavishing of praise on him while Dunn and Encarnacion in particular get beat up.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-19-2008, 08:35 PM
The problem as I mentioned earlier is in the application. Why is batting clean-up versus right handed pitching? It's ridiculous. And not only is he batting up there versus righties, but his presence up there prevents better hitters from getting those at bats.

The same logic that has Phillips inexplicably hitting 4th vs. RHP's has Griffey hitting 3rd against LHP's when he's hit .671, .735, and .533 against LHP's the last three years.

It simply boggles the noggin.

WMR
05-19-2008, 08:38 PM
The biggest issue I have with Phillips isn't really an issue with Phillips at all: It's Dusty's asinine usage of him.

Will M
05-19-2008, 08:39 PM
I like Phillips.

His main weakness is being OBP challenged.

I would like to see him hitting 6th or 7th. The higher OBP guys like Dunn,Votto,EE can hit ahead of him. Then he drives them in with his power. When he does get on base his speed can help create runs. ie he can try to steal when the catcher or pinch hitter or leadoff guy is at the plate whereas you wouldn't want him trying to steal if a power hitter was up.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-19-2008, 08:39 PM
The biggest issue I have with Phillips isn't really an issue with Phillips at all: It's Dusty's asinine usage of him.

As with Patterson hitting lead off.

WMR
05-19-2008, 08:41 PM
As with Patterson hitting lead off.

+1

M2
05-19-2008, 08:48 PM
It seems to me that the majority of threads on redszone have been about how he gets a free pass and is "overrated." My question is, why?

His numbers:
.293/.339/.524
.863 OPS
8 HR
24 RBI
86 TB (leads team)
10 2B
2 3B
6 SB

1 error
.994 Fielding%

Why the hate for BP on redszone?

I've got nothing but love for him - deep, abiding love. He's my favorite Reds player. In fact, he's my favorite Reds player since Barry Larkin. He's worth watching all nine innings of the game and he threatens to make the Reds a complete baseball team. He's the best player on the team and I don't care where he bats. The dude will score runs and drive them in where you hit him.

At this moment in time, Brandon Phillips IS Reds baseball. Maybe Jay Bruce will change that in the future, but Phillips deserves nothing but pure adoration from Reds nation at this moment in history.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-19-2008, 08:50 PM
I've got nothing but love for him - deep, abiding love. He's my favorite Reds player. In fact, he's my favorite Reds player since Barry Larkin. He's worth watching all nine innings of the game and he threatens to make the Reds a complete baseball team. He's the best player on the team and I don't care where he bats. The dude will score runs and drive them in where you hit him.

At this moment in time, Brandon Phillips IS Reds baseball. Maybe Jay Bruce will change that in the future, but Phillips deserves nothing but pure adoration from Reds nation at this moment in history.

Amen.

Highlifeman21
05-19-2008, 09:17 PM
Only on pace for 19 Phillips (formerly the Casey), and on pace for 46 BB (which would shatter his seasonal career number of 35 BB).

I'll happily eat crow if he has double the BB as he will GIDP (the Phillips).

Patrick Bateman
05-19-2008, 09:30 PM
I've got nothing but love for him - deep, abiding love. He's my favorite Reds player. In fact, he's my favorite Reds player since Barry Larkin. He's worth watching all nine innings of the game and he threatens to make the Reds a complete baseball team. He's the best player on the team and I don't care where he bats. The dude will score runs and drive them in where you hit him.

At this moment in time, Brandon Phillips IS Reds baseball. Maybe Jay Bruce will change that in the future, but Phillips deserves nothing but pure adoration from Reds nation at this moment in history.

I remember reading one of the old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and seeing Brandon Phillips as the Expo's #1 prospect. I was always drawn to him because firstly, he had a cool name and attitude, and additonally admired Barry Larkin (my favorite back in the day too). Like Josh Hamilton, I always dreamed of him becoming a Red someday while having the torch passed to him by Larkin, and when he was ranked so high, that didn't look like much of a realistic possiblity.

Of course, he didn't quite become a Barry Larkin, and he took an interesting road to get here, but his entertainment level is top notch. Plus the added bonus of pissing off Keith Hernandez everytime the Reds play the Mets should never be overlooked. Phillips does a ton of things at the plate that bug me, but at the same time, he does a ton of stuff the rest of the team is completely inept at. Overall, it's exceedingly hard to dislike the overall package.

GAC
05-19-2008, 09:34 PM
I've got nothing but love for him - deep, abiding love. He's my favorite Reds player. In fact, he's my favorite Reds player since Barry Larkin. He's worth watching all nine innings of the game and he threatens to make the Reds a complete baseball team. He's the best player on the team and I don't care where he bats. The dude will score runs and drive them in where you hit him.

At this moment in time, Brandon Phillips IS Reds baseball. Maybe Jay Bruce will change that in the future, but Phillips deserves nothing but pure adoration from Reds nation at this moment in history.

Double Amen.

And aren't BP's number's batting in the #4 spot pretty impressive so far this season?

WMR
05-19-2008, 09:36 PM
Double Amen.

And aren't BP's number's batting in the #4 spot pretty impressive so far this season?

Versus lefties or righties?

*BaseClogger*
05-19-2008, 09:37 PM
I like Phillips.

His main weakness is being OBP challenged.

I would like to see him hitting 6th or 7th. The higher OBP guys like Dunn,Votto,EE can hit ahead of him. Then he drives them in with his power. When he does get on base his speed can help create runs. ie he can try to steal when the catcher or pinch hitter or leadoff guy is at the plate whereas you wouldn't want him trying to steal if a power hitter was up.

Hey-oh! :thumbup:

MartyFan
05-19-2008, 09:52 PM
For me it's not about hate, just proper understanding. Phillips is a very valuable and overall productive player -- I don't think anybody has disagreed with that point. The problem is I see it is in the application. He's a great overall player, but he's got weaknesses in his game. You simply cannot talk about his offensive production without looking at his split stats.

2008
vR: 125 PA, .241/.288/.353 (.641 OPS)
vL: 52 PA, .417/.462/.938 (1.400 OPS)

Career:
vR: 1380 PA, .249/.293/.394 (.688 OPS)
vL: 548 PA, .304/.350/.516 (.866 OPS)

What does this mean? Against right handed pitching, Phillips is Neifi Perez (.672 OPS). Against left handed pitcher, he's Jeff Kent (.858 OPS). And unfortunately, 70% of his at bats are against right handed pitching. In 70% of his plate appearances, he's a replacement level player. In the other 30%, he's a hall-of-famer. Again, on balance, he's a very good player.

The problem as I mentioned earlier is in the application. Why is he batting clean-up versus right handed pitching? It's ridiculous. And not only is he batting up there versus righties, but his presence up there prevents better hitters from getting those at bats.

Here are the Reds starters versus right handed pitching in their careers:



BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Griffey .297 .386 .570 .956
2 Dunn .251 .389 .535 .925
3 Votto .298 .344 .574 .919
4 Encarnacion .272 .336 .456 .792
5 Freel .276 .359 .375 .735
6 Patterson .263 .305 .427 .732
7 Keppinger .291 .339 .386 .725
8 Ross .214 .294 .420 .714
9 Gonzalez .249 .295 .399 .693
10 Phillips .249 .293 .394 .688
11 Bako .245 .321 .330 .651

Starting with this knowledge, how can you possibly justify Phillips batting cleanup against a righty starter in any lineup configuration. It's really indefensible. The problem isn't with Phillips per se', it's frustration that he's being hailed as the new face of the Reds who can do everything while while a MAJOR hole in his game goes completely ignored. At the same time, other Reds get nitpicked to death for every single thing they do (or don't do) -- as if they can do no wrong.

It's the disproportionate lavishing of praise on him while Dunn and Encarnacion in particular get beat up.

Is his recent history any different that his overall career numbers?

I don't have any real reason or argument for him batting clean up against righties with those numbers.

MWM
05-19-2008, 09:56 PM
I've never seen any hate for BP on this site. Ever! Like M2, he's noe of my favorite players.

I think what people were referring to was a few weeks ago when he was struggling along with the rest of the team, but all the criticism from our favorite broadcaster and some others was being heaped on other players for not hitting, without any going BP's way, even though he was sruggling as well.

vaticanplum
05-19-2008, 10:02 PM
I've got nothing but love for him - deep, abiding love. He's my favorite Reds player. In fact, he's my favorite Reds player since Barry Larkin. He's worth watching all nine innings of the game and he threatens to make the Reds a complete baseball team. He's the best player on the team and I don't care where he bats. The dude will score runs and drive them in where you hit him.

At this moment in time, Brandon Phillips IS Reds baseball. Maybe Jay Bruce will change that in the future, but Phillips deserves nothing but pure adoration from Reds nation at this moment in history.

Agreed, and I think he gets that adoration for the most part. I've seen nothing but love for him. Every place I've ever seen him, on the field or off, he's just kind of bouncing around leaving a trail of joy in his wake. In a parallel universe somewhere, Brandon Phillips is surrounded by sassy pink unicorns at all times. That's just the kind of kid he is.

RedsManRick
05-19-2008, 10:18 PM
Agreed, and I think he gets that adoration for the most part. I've seen nothing but love for him. Every place I've ever seen him, on the field or off, he's just kind of bouncing around leaving a trail of joy in his wake. In a parallel universe somewhere, Brandon Phillips is surrounded by sassy pink unicorns at all times. That's just the kind of kid he is.

Brandon Phillips = Rainbow Brite?

redsrule2500
05-19-2008, 10:30 PM
I'll never buy into Phillips being overrated. He's a key to our offense and defense.

vaticanplum
05-19-2008, 11:23 PM
Brandon Phillips = Rainbow Brite?

I smell Photoshop!

dougdirt
05-19-2008, 11:36 PM
I'll never buy into Phillips being overrated. He's a key to our offense and defense.

There is a difference between overrated and not good. Brandon Phillips is good, but I think he is overrated offensively by quite a few.

Topcat
05-20-2008, 04:20 AM
It seems to me that the majority of threads on redszone have been about how he gets a free pass and is "overrated." My question is, why?

His numbers:
.293/.339/.524
.863 OPS
8 HR
24 RBI
86 TB (leads team)
10 2B
2 3B
6 SB

1 error
.994 Fielding%

Why the hate for BP on redszone?


no hate from me ever. he came literally for free and has been beyond any expectation a Reds fan could have dreamed of. His play in the filed alone makes him valuable the rest is gravy, and so far its been one serious sweet condiment lol.

Jpup
05-20-2008, 12:30 PM
Brandon Phillips makes me proud to be a Reds fan. He's the face of the franchise right now. He will be an All-Star this year and likely win a gold glove. Everyone seems to love him. I don't see the hate.

The only hate I see is for Adam Dunn and Ryan Freel. I like 'em both.

dfs
05-20-2008, 12:52 PM
I guess you can put me in the hater camp.

Phillips free swinging ways and his troubles against right handers are very real flaws in his game that have already been mentioned.

I will point out that Phillips career high seasonal OPS+ was last year where he "achieved" a 105 at the age of 26, a mark that would not cause anybody to lift an eyebrow if it was done by D'Angelo Jiminez, Felipe Lopez or Chris Stynes. Now, I DO think Phillips is a better player than those guys, but a don't think he's an order of magnitude better and that's what gets me.

Who popped off publicly about Josh Hamilton being a distraction in the club house?
Who won't talk to the media if the team wins and he has a bad game?
Who was rewarded with a "buy out" type contract after exactly one above average season? That's exactly the kind of thing that has bitten this franchise in the rear how many times?
After signing said contract who compared himself to Barry Larkin and Joe Morgan?

I don't hate Phillips as a player, but I don't much care for some of the things he says and does in the locker room. As a player, he's an asset, but as his contract demands escalate I'm not convinced he'll remain an asset long.

I hope I'm wrong about all that and I'm just being a grumpy old guy who "can't tolerate the new breed of ballplayer," but that's my take.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 12:54 PM
I must say I was happy to see BP handle right handed pitching last night. His swing-for-the-fences approach still scares me and his splits are still ridiculously one-sided, but it is definitely hard not to like the guy.

I'll reiterate, I hate the effusive praise he gets in the media when juxtaposed against the way other Reds are treated. Just last night, Vin Scully couldn't help talking about 2 things:

1. Brandon Phillips is underrated and among the best players in the NL.
2. Adam Dunn is 6'6", 275 lbs and is an all-or-nothing player who only strikes out and hits homers.

If somebody had suggested to Vin that Dunn is the more productive offensive player due to his power and making fewer outs than Phillips, he might have had a heart attack. It was a perfect example of my frustration. Phillips is very good and deserves praise. But the praise he receives often highlights the bias towards certain types of performance, not based on actual productivity.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-20-2008, 01:03 PM
Look at the back of Brandon's baseball card, dfs.

He is increasing in every statistical category.

I agree he's a free swinger and his AB's can be frustrating at times, but it's so worth it for everything else he brings to the table.

Cedric
05-20-2008, 01:12 PM
I must say I was happy to see BP handle right handed pitching last night. His swing-for-the-fences approach still scares me and his splits are still ridiculously one-sided, but it is definitely hard not to like the guy.

I'll reiterate, I hate the effusive praise he gets in the media when juxtaposed against the way other Reds are treated. Just last night, Vin Scully couldn't help talking about 2 things:

1. Brandon Phillips is underrated and among the best players in the NL.
2. Adam Dunn is 6'6", 275 lbs and is an all-or-nothing player who only strikes out and hits homers.

If somebody had suggested to Vin that Dunn is the more productive offensive player due to his power and making fewer outs than Phillips, he might have had a heart attack. It was a perfect example of my frustration. Phillips is very good and deserves praise. But the praise he receives often highlights the bias towards certain types of performance, not based on actual productivity.

Vin is god though and Marty is a devil.

redsfan30
05-20-2008, 01:17 PM
Brandon Phillips is by far the best overall player this team has and he will be the face of this franchise for many years to come.

Jpup
05-20-2008, 01:17 PM
Brandon Phillips is by far the best overall player this team has and he will be the face of this franchise for many years to come.

Adam Dunn & Aaron Harang are the best players on the team, but I agree with the rest.

westofyou
05-20-2008, 01:19 PM
Vin is god though and Marty is a devil.

Vin is a pleasant listen, no venom, no amazement at the failures that occur daily, just a nice listen.

He can get repetitive though with the game notes over a 3 game series.

dougdirt
05-20-2008, 01:30 PM
Adam Dunn & Aaron Harang are the best players on the team, but I agree with the rest.

Dunn, no. Defense hurts him too much. Harang, yes.

Jpup
05-20-2008, 01:31 PM
Dunn, no. Defense hurts him too much. Harang, yes.

I guess I think more of Dunn's defense than most folks. I don't think he really hurts the club out there and he makes all the routine plays. I look at it like this. If you were starting a team that had to win that day. Who would you pick as the first 2 guys. Harang and Dunn would be mine.

WMR
05-20-2008, 01:34 PM
Dunn, no. Defense hurts him too much. Harang, yes.

Dunn is the best player on this team and it isn't even remotely close. I love Phillips, but he's nowhere near as valuable to this team as Dunn.

BTW: Dunn has been pretty much a league-average LFer this season.

dougdirt
05-20-2008, 01:34 PM
I guess I think more of Dunn's defense than most folks. I don't think he really hurts the club out there and he makes all the routine plays. I look at it like this. If you were starting a team that had to win that day. Who would you pick as the first 2 guys. Harang and Dunn would be mine.

Harang and Volquez and its not close for me. You can't get that type of pitching on the FA market for anywhere near what we are paying for it.

As for Dunn's defense.... its downright terrible even compared to most of his peers at one of the easiest positions on the field. He doesn't make the routine play.... most of the routine plays are ones that land 3 feet from him.

Jpup
05-20-2008, 01:37 PM
Harang and Volquez and its not close for me. You can't get that type of pitching on the FA market for anywhere near what we are paying for it.

As for Dunn's defense.... its downright terrible even compared to most of his peers at one of the easiest positions on the field. He doesn't make the routine play.... most of the routine plays are ones that land 3 feet from him.


I don't see that, but that's why we all have opinions. Compare him to the rest out there and you might be surprised.

Jpup
05-20-2008, 01:37 PM
Dunn is the best player on this team and it isn't even remotely close. I love Phillips, but he's nowhere near as valuable to this team as Dunn.

BTW: Dunn has been pretty much a league-average LFer this season.

:beerme:

dougdirt
05-20-2008, 01:42 PM
Dunn is the best player on this team and it isn't even remotely close. I love Phillips, but he's nowhere near as valuable to this team as Dunn.

BTW: Dunn has been pretty much a league-average LFer this season.

When you factor in defense, Adam Dunn is still a very good player, but its pushing it to say Phillips isn't close to as valuable as Dunn. Last year the difference, just defensively between the two was about 2.5-3 wins. Thats a whole lot. Its early this season still, so the defense is going to be up in the air for a while still..... but I don't think Dunn is getting all that much better out there. He is also having a down offensive season compared to last year. I think they are much closer than you are giving credit for.

dougdirt
05-20-2008, 01:45 PM
I don't see that, but that's why we all have opinions. Compare him to the rest out there and you might be surprised.

I have.... he still sucks and every metric available over the last few years backs that up big time. He gets to fewer balls in his zone, he gets to fewer balls out of his zone and he makes his fair share of errors. Now, this year he is doing much better, I will give him that. I just don't think he does it over the full season. I will gladly eat crow if he does, but I just don't see it.

M2
05-20-2008, 01:46 PM
Dunn can carry the offense, but in terms of overall value, I'll take Phillips. Brandon leads the team in OPS at the moment too. It won't last, but it speaks to his all-around value.

redsfan30
05-20-2008, 01:50 PM
I know I'll get torn apart for this, but with the game on the line in the 9th inning, who do you have more confidence in that they're going to get the job done? Brandon Phillips or Adam Dunn?

Answer's pretty easy.

(PS. I like Adam Dunn and I stay so far away from 99.9% of the Dunn related threads on this board because I don't think he's nearly as bad as some make him out to be but I also don't think he's nearly as good as the other half makes him out to be. Ok, back to my hiding spot.)

MWM
05-20-2008, 01:53 PM
I know I'll get torn apart for this, but with the game on the line in the 9th inning, who do you have more confidence in that they're going to get the job done? Brandon Phillips or Adam Dunn?


Depends on how you define "the job."

Jpup
05-20-2008, 01:55 PM
I know I'll get torn apart for this, but with the game on the line in the 9th inning, who do you have more confidence in that they're going to get the job done? Brandon Phillips or Adam Dunn?

Answer's pretty easy.

yes, you are right. It's Adam Dunn.

lollipopcurve
05-20-2008, 01:56 PM
Phillips plays solid D in the middle of the diamond and is a very good baserunner. Dunn is weak in leftfield both in terms of range and arm. He is an average baserunner at best. Then, if you want to evaluate them as future assets, Dunn is older, has had a knee operation and has a body type that's unlikely to age well. Phillips is younger and has had no injuries.

If it's me throwing the $$$ around, and it can only go to one or the other, it goes to Phillips.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 02:08 PM
I know I'll get torn apart for this, but with the game on the line in the 9th inning, who do you have more confidence in that they're going to get the job done? Brandon Phillips or Adam Dunn?

Answer's pretty easy.

(PS. I like Adam Dunn and I stay so far away from 99.9% of the Dunn related threads on this board because I don't think he's nearly as bad as some make him out to be but I also don't think he's nearly as good as the other half makes him out to be. Ok, back to my hiding spot.)

If "the job" is doing something which increases the Reds chance of winning, I'll put my money on Adam Dunn every time.

M2
05-20-2008, 02:28 PM
If "the job" is doing something which increases the Reds chance of winning, I'll put my money on Adam Dunn every time.

Dunn beat Phillips in Win Shares last year 21-18. Phillips leads 4-3 this year. It's fairly close. For the record, I like Dunn plenty and would like him to stay with the Reds, but I place a higher value on a multi-faceted middle IF. I actually think they complement each other nicely. I only wish the Reds had more appealing options like those two to put into "who's better" debates. The real answer is they're different and valuable.

westofyou
05-20-2008, 02:41 PM
The real answer is they're different and valuable.

Yep, and both bring facets to the game that don't have to be viewed as separate alien entities in a world that consists of only predestined incidents and solutions.

Both cause the other team to have to react to their game and that is the beauty of having both types of players on your team, because it hopefully will thin the options down as the game progresses.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 02:51 PM
Dunn beat Phillips in Win Shares last year 21-18. Phillips leads 4-3 this year. It's fairly close. For the record, I like Dunn plenty and would like him to stay with the Reds, but I place a higher value on a multi-faceted middle IF. I actually think they complement each other nicely. I only wish the Reds had more appealing options like those two to put into "who's better" debates. The real answer is they're different and valuable.

I agree completely. I also wish our manager knew how better to utilize their skills. Corey Patterson getting an at bat in the 9th, and Dunn not getting one, is a perfect example.

Rojo
05-20-2008, 02:52 PM
Some people loose the forest through the secondary-average trees.

M2
05-20-2008, 03:03 PM
I agree completely. I also wish our manager knew how better to utilize their skills. Corey Patterson getting an at bat in the 9th, and Dunn not getting one, is a perfect example.

Agreed there. Yet one problem Baker has at the moment is he's really only got two top-four hitters at his disposal (at least against RHPs) - Dunn and Votto. That neither hit in the top four is an indictment of his lineups, but it means that two non-ideal hitters would need to be in that mix even if he better deployed Dunn and Votto. My take is, with this roster, Brandon Phillips needs to be one of those two other guys.

wheels
05-20-2008, 03:40 PM
Agreed there. Yet one problem Baker has at the moment is he's really only got two top-four hitters at his disposal (at least against RHPs) - Dunn and Votto. That neither hit in the top four is an indictment of his lineups, but it means that two non-ideal hitters would need to be in that mix even if he better deployed Dunn and Votto. My take is, with this roster, Brandon Phillips needs to be one of those two other guys.

You don't think EE's a top four guy yet?

WMR
05-20-2008, 03:41 PM
I was going to suggest that EE isn't too far off at all from being neck and neck with Phillips in terms of overall importance/value to this team.

wheels
05-20-2008, 03:42 PM
Yep, and both bring facets to the game that don't have to be viewed as separate alien entities in a world that consists of only predestined incidents and solutions.

Both cause the other team to have to react to their game and that is the beauty of having both types of players on your team, because it hopefully will thin the options down as the game progresses.

Yow!

Couldn't agree more.

Where have you been lately?

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 03:46 PM
You don't think EE's a top four guy yet?

The top 4 by career numbers, as posted earlier.


BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Griffey .297 .386 .570 .956
2 Dunn .251 .389 .535 .925
3 Votto .298 .344 .574 .919
4 Encarnacion .272 .336 .456 .792

I think he's clearly top 4 vR on the Reds as of today, and you were inclined to remove Junior, you likely could replace him with Bruce. Freel was 5th.

That said, until Dusty gets it out of his head that speed is characteristic #1 for a leadoff guy, we'll never get the right guys up there.

Here's a top 5 that even Dusty should be able to stomach, but I still doubt we'll see on any regular basis thanks to his lefty-right obsession.

Freel
Votto
Grifffey
Dunn
EE

M2
05-20-2008, 05:53 PM
You don't think EE's a top four guy yet?

Nyet, more of a 5-6 guy, which is a perfectly fine hitter. Phillips is really that sort of guy too, but I put him ahead of EE due mainly to consistency. Phillips will probably spend most of the year hitting north of .280 and he's more sluggy.

M2
05-20-2008, 05:54 PM
Here's a top 5 that even Dusty should be able to stomach, but I still doubt we'll see on any regular basis thanks to his lefty-right obsession.

Freel
Votto
Grifffey
Dunn
EE

Phillips is going to out-OPS three guys on that list, maybe four.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 05:56 PM
Phillips is going to out-OPS three guys on that list, maybe four.

Against righties? That's where I was pulling my top 4 list. Platoon splits are real and predictive after sufficient plate appearances. Phillips can't hit righties well at all. As far as I'm concerned, he's not an .850 OPS guy. He's a 70% .700 OPS and 30% .925 OPS guy. You always get one or the other depending on whose pitching.

Take EE by contrast, for example. You called him inconsistent, but I have no idea how you've arrived on that idea. By what measure? Looking at handedness splits, EE is .792 vR and .814 vR. Handedness splits are MUCH more predictive than time of the year splits, be it month or pre-post ASB. If you're going to assert that EE goes on more streaks than BP, both hot and cold, I'd have to ask for some evidence. Given our tendencies to see patterns where we're looking for them, I'd be skeptical about an observational assessment of player streakiness.

FWIW, I do not know EE to not be more streaky, but think a fair null assumption is that he isn't unusually streaky, absent evidence to the contrary. I've seen a number of studies, but have not read them. There are a number of models out there including one discussed here (http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:E9wnWxs690sJ:www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/papers/streak.ps+measuring+player+streakiness&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us&client=firefox-a). However, I know we won't find any happy ground any time soon.

I'll fully admit the possibility that EE is more inconsistent than BP. However, without any way to measure it, I simply don't feel comfortable putting such a claim ahead of the very measurable extreme variability BP displays based on the handedness of the pitcher and EE's comparative consistency.


Agreed there. Yet one problem Baker has at the moment is he's really only got two top-four hitters at his disposal (at least against RHPs) - Dunn and Votto.

Phillips has both a career and 2008 OPS versus righties under .700. Even after last night he's at .686 on the season. For his career, worse than Patterson, worse than Ross, worse than every single Reds regular except Paul Bako.

Perhaps I've misunderstood your comment, but overall OPS (as the basis for your top 4 comment) isn't really the relevant measure once you breach the handedness split issue. Phillips is HoF good versus lefties, and AAA good versus righties. I think Phillips is great as an overall package, but it's fair to call a spade a spade. If he's not facing a lefty, he's a liability at the plate.

wheels
05-20-2008, 06:21 PM
Nyet, more of a 5-6 guy, which is a perfectly fine hitter. Phillips is really that sort of guy too, but I put him ahead of EE due mainly to consistency. Phillips will probably spend most of the year hitting north of .280 and he's more sluggy.

Fair enough.

Consistency might come with further maturation though.

Either way, the future of the offense looks pretty good with EE/Phillips/Votto/Bruce.

wheels
05-20-2008, 06:35 PM
Against righties? That's where I was pulling my top 4 list. Platoon splits are real and predictive after sufficient plate appearances. Phillips can't hit righties well at all. As far as I'm concerned, he's not an .850 OPS guy. He's a 70% .700 OPS and 30% .925 OPS guy. You always get one or the other depending on whose pitching.

Take EE by contrast, for example. You called him inconsistent, but I have no idea how you've arrived on that idea. By what measure? Looking at handedness splits, EE is .792 vR and .814 vR. Handedness splits are MUCH more predictive than time of the year splits, be it month or pre-post ASB. If you're going to assert that EE goes on more streaks than BP, both hot and cold, I'd have to ask for some evidence. Given our tendencies to see patterns where we're looking for them, I'd be skeptical about an observational assessment of player streakiness.

FWIW, I do not know EE to not be more streaky, but think a fair null assumption is that he isn't unusually streaky, absent evidence to the contrary. I've seen a number of studies, but have not read them. There are a number of models out there including one discussed here (http://64.233.167.104/search?q=cache:E9wnWxs690sJ:www-math.bgsu.edu/~albert/papers/streak.ps+measuring+player+streakiness&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4&gl=us&client=firefox-a). However, I know we won't find any happy ground any time soon.

I'll fully admit the possibility that EE is more inconsistent than BP. However, without any way to measure it, I simply don't feel comfortable putting such a claim ahead of the very measurable extreme variability BP displays based on the handedness of the pitcher and EE's comparative consistency.



Phillips has both a career and 2008 OPS versus righties under .700. Even after last night he's at .686 on the season. For his career, worse than Patterson, worse than Ross, worse than every single Reds regular except Paul Bako.

Perhaps I've misunderstood your comment, but overall OPS (as the basis for your top 4 comment) isn't really the relevant measure once you breach the handedness split issue. Phillips is HoF good versus lefties, and AAA good versus righties. I think Phillips is great as an overall package, but it's fair to call a spade a spade. If he's not facing a lefty, he's a liability at the plate.

I don't think he's saying EE's necessarily streaker than Phillips.

He even went on to mention that he thinks Brandon's probably a #5 guy too.

Oh yeah, and I totally agree with your take on handedness and the like. Good stuff.

I think Edwin's gonna eventually bridge the gap between Dunn and Phillips. He's kind of the middle ground between those two types of hitter.

I've been saying it all day, but it bears repeating that if they hold onto this corps of young hitters and cobble together a decent bench, and employ them properly (this is where Dusty freaks me out), they could have a pretty balanced and exciting offensive ballclub in a couple of years.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 07:00 PM
I don't think he's saying EE's necessarily streaker than Phillips.

Looking back, I can't even find the streaky/consistent comment. It's quite possible I pulled it magically from some other thread. But the general conversation stands on its own, I think.

M2
05-20-2008, 08:13 PM
Against righties? That's where I was pulling my top 4 list.

Against everyone. One of the nice things about Phillips mixed in between LHBs is it feeds him southpaws later in the game. We're actually seeing it work this season. Apparently Dusty is all about TPA.

The lineup's got to work for 9 innings and I would submit that you will get more out of Phillips overall than most of the guys you listed in a similar role. FWIW, I would move Phillips down the lineup against particularly vicious RHPs (e.g. Zambrano and Webb). Phillips is a guy I want getting extra ABs.

Yachtzee
05-20-2008, 08:21 PM
There was a time when I felt the Reds were best served in trading Phillips. My logic was that he had at that point had a career year that far exceeded his past performance at the major league level. He didn't do so well with the Indians and it wasn't a sure thing that he would continue to perform, so I felt like the Reds should sell high. Also, his batting ave. dependent OBP is more prone to the ups and downs that come with the luck of "hitting it where they ain't" and he has a penchant for hitting into double plays. However, I now feel that the Reds are well served in keeping him. It's nice once again having a player who can provide offense and still provide competent defense up the middle. However, I agree with those who say he should hit lower in the order, primarily against righties.

Ron Madden
05-21-2008, 03:46 AM
I could be wrong, but I think the majority of Edwins AB's have come from the bottom third of the batting order. While the majority of Brandons AB's have come near the top of the batting order.

I'm not sure, but could this make any difference?

Highlifeman21
05-21-2008, 08:34 PM
I have.... he still sucks and every metric available over the last few years backs that up big time. He gets to fewer balls in his zone, he gets to fewer balls out of his zone and he makes his fair share of errors. Now, this year he is doing much better, I will give him that. I just don't think he does it over the full season. I will gladly eat crow if he does, but I just don't see it.

Defensive WinShares disagrees with you.

Dunn's defensive WinShares aren't negative, last time I checked.

TRF
05-21-2008, 09:00 PM
Phillips is going to out-OPS three guys on that list, maybe four.

I'd bet you anything he won't out-OPS EE this year.

jojo
05-23-2008, 10:28 AM
Defensive WinShares disagrees with you.

Dunn's defensive WinShares aren't negative, last time I checked.

Even James doesn't talk about defensive win shares when he discusses defensive metrics....

Just sayin'

westofyou
05-23-2008, 10:32 AM
Even James doesn't talk about defensive win shares when he discusses defensive metrics....

Just sayin'

You mean the same Bill James who said this?


We havenít figured out anything yet. A hundred years from now, we wonít have begun to have the game figured out.

jojo
05-23-2008, 10:37 AM
You mean the same Bill James who said this?

That sounds like something he'd say-which might explain why he references better metrics when discussing defense???????? :cool:

Highlifeman21
05-23-2008, 01:26 PM
So why does James calculate defensive WinShares if he doesn't believe in them himself?

jojo
05-23-2008, 01:47 PM
So why does James calculate defensive WinShares if he doesn't believe in them himself?

That's kind of like asking why did BMW stick iDrive in their 7-series during '02.... The answer is that even BMW has it's share of clunkers.

fearofpopvol1
05-30-2008, 07:30 PM
Is it me, or has Brandon Phillips (so far) this season started taking a few extra pitches? And hacking a little less? Maybe it's a figment of my imagination, but everytime I've watched him bat recently, he seemingly has toned down the hacking a little bit. Not totally, but a little bit.

Patrick Bateman
05-30-2008, 08:15 PM
2007 BB%: 4.8%
2008 BB%: 7.2%

Looks like the eyes and the stats are jivin'

M2
05-30-2008, 08:40 PM
2007 BB%: 4.8%
2008 BB%: 7.2%

Looks like the eyes and the stats are jivin'

Pitches per PA:

2007 - 3.56
2008 - 3.83

CrackerJack
05-30-2008, 10:17 PM
Against righties? That's where I was pulling my top 4 list. Platoon splits are real and predictive after sufficient plate appearances. Phillips can't hit righties well at all. As far as I'm concerned, he's not an .850 OPS guy. He's a 70% .700 OPS and 30% .925 OPS guy. You always get one or the other depending on whose pitching.

Phillips has both a career and 2008 OPS versus righties under .700. Even after last night he's at .686 on the season. For his career, worse than Patterson, worse than Ross, worse than every single Reds regular except Paul Bako.



BP has a .735 OPS versus righties during his 3 years as a Red so far, if he raised that specifically to .800 or .825, he'd basically be another Dunn offensively, and will also be hard to keep financially, if he isn't going to be already when he's up for his next contract.

I see a player improving (his OBP is going up every year), becoming more consistent, and one in-line for some hopefully better OPS/OBP years in his late 20's and early 30's, with little if any decline in what is already excellent defense during that time.

I think BP is an ideal player for a model in a market like the Reds.

No doubt he needs to improve vs RH's, and increase his OBP in general, but will take what he's doing now for as long as it's affordable and of value, which he certainly is.

Highlifeman21
05-31-2008, 10:16 AM
So here's a hypothetical (and it's not bashing BP).

Say Larry Jones fields BP's ball cleanly, instead of missing it allowing to Bruce to score to end the game. Does that ball end up being a Phillips, with the fleet of foot Griffey going to 2B, and Phillips getting down the line to 1B, or does Larry get KGJ at 2B and they don't turn it as BP beats it to 1B?

We're either looking at Bruce @ 3B with 2 outs, or Bruce @ 3B and BP @ 1B with 1 out, and Dunn at the plate.

How does the game end from that point?



For the record, I think if Larry fields that ball cleanly, he turns the Phillips b/c of how hard it was hit to him. I don't think BP would have a chance beating it out @ 1B.

jojo
05-31-2008, 11:16 AM
How does the game end from that point?

They probably walk Dunn and bring in Soriano to blow away EE then onto the 12th and all bets are off.