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OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:13 PM
Pitcher A:

51.2 IP, 49 H, 12 HR, 13 BB/53 K, 1.20 WHIP, 5.75 ERA

Pitcher B:

60 IP, 52 H, 11 HR, 15 BB/57 K, 1.12 WHIP, 3.30 ERA

Can anyone guess who those two pitchers are and then I'll tell you what the point of my post is.

BRM
05-20-2008, 03:16 PM
Pitcher A is Johnny Cueto. Pitcher B is Johan Santana.

bucksfan2
05-20-2008, 03:17 PM
Cueto and Beckett?

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:18 PM
One pitcher has the ability to strand baserunners, while the other one comes apart at the seams by pitch 80 and can never make it through the 6th inning (but likely will be able to by next season).

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 03:18 PM
A is Johnny Cueto.
B is ???

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:24 PM
Pitcher A is Johnny Cueto. Pitcher B is Johan Santana.

Nice.

If you look at those numbers, the peripherals are similar. You wouldn't expect two pitchers with similar peripherals like that to have a near 2.5 run differential in ERA. It all comes down to the defense IMO. The Mets are 9th in baseball in defense efficiency while the Reds are last. Obviously Cueto has given up his share of homeruns with 12, but nine of those have been solo. Santana has given up one less homerun in 8.1 more innings, but he pitches half his games in a pitchers park while Cueto pitches in a homerun friendly park. But it all comes down to defense. If the Reds had a better defender at SS and RF then I suspect Cueto's ERA would be closer to 3.30 than 5.75 right now.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:28 PM
Nice.

If you look at those numbers, the peripherals are similar. You wouldn't expect two pitchers with similar peripherals like that to have a near 2.5 run differential in ERA. It all comes down to the defense IMO. The Mets are 9th in baseball in defense efficiency while the Reds are last. Obviously Cueto has given up his share of homeruns with 12, but nine of those have been solo. Sanatana has given up one less homerun in 8.1 more innings, but he pitches half his games in a pitchers park while Cueto pitches in a homerun friendly park. But it all comes down to defense. If the Reds had a better defender at SS and RF then I suspect Cueto's ERA would be closer to 3.30 than 5.75 right now.


Santana has an OPSA of .715, while Cueto's is .803. I realize that OPSA is a defense-dependent stat, but I'm not at all convinced that defense alone makes up that gulf in their OPSA. I suspect bullpens come into play in stranding starters' runners, too, though.

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:30 PM
Santana has an OPSA of .715, while Cueto's is .803. I realize that OPSA is a defense-dependent stat, but I'm not at all convinced that defense alone makes up that gulf in their OPSA. I suspect bullpens come into play in stranding starters' runners, too, though.

Ballpark too.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-20-2008, 03:31 PM
Great stuff, OBM.

Very interesting.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:33 PM
Ballpark too.

Could be. Though Cueto (so far) has shown himself to be more of a flyball pitcher than Santana. So while more of Cueto's flyballs are likely to leave in GAB versus Shea, he still puts himself in worse shape in terms of likelihood of hurting himself with the homer.

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:36 PM
Could be. Though Cueto (so far) has shown himself to be more of a flyball pitcher than Santana. So while more of Cueto's flyballs are likely to leave in GAB versus Shea, he still puts himself in worse shape in terms of likelihood of hurting himself with the homer.

But not by much. Over his career Santana has a 0.89 G/F ratio whereas Cueto is at 0.80 in a small sample size.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 03:40 PM
Another area which might matter is bullpen quality. When the starting pitcher leaves the game with men on base, how often are those runners coming around to score? That can have a significant affect on the SP's ERA.

That said, let's not ignore the innings pitched difference here. Those rate stats vary a bit, particularly for HR.



H/9 BB/9 K/9 HR/9 LOB% FIP
Cueto 8.53 2.26 9.23 2.10 61.4 4.85
Santana 7.80 2.25 8.55 1.65 85.6 4.28

Notice that Santana has a FIP over half a run lower than Cueto. To me, the real story is in those strand rates. Of the 41 pitchers with 50 or more IP, Santana is 2nd, Cueto is 40th. FWIW, Volquez is #1 and Arroyo #39. Not allowing HR is a very powerful thing.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:40 PM
But not by much. Over his career Santana has a 0.89 G/F ratio whereas Cueto is at 0.80 in a small sample size.

True. Though I think we're both dealing with the problem that faces this kind of comparison: comparing 9 starts between a Cy Young winner in the prime of his career and a 22 year old rookie.

Over the course of the summer Santana will distance himself well away from Cueto in both rate and counting stats. Because one has a skill set and physical and mental ability to do something the other doesn't yet. And the comparison will become less and less meaningful.

Will M
05-20-2008, 03:42 PM
the Reds need to get serious above improving their defense. i feel sorry for Reds pitchers. the defensive lineup for last nights game was a joke.

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:43 PM
True. Though I think we're both dealing with the problem that faces this kind of comparison: comparing 9 starts between a Cy Young winner and a 22 year old rookie.

Over the course of the summer Santana will distance himself well away from Cueto in both rate and counting stats. Because one has a skill set and physical and mental ability to do something the other doesn't yet. And the comparison will become less and less meaningful.

Oh I definitely think Santana will have better stats than Cueto at the end of the season...I just thought it was interesting how similar their peripherals were and yet Cueto's ERA is 2.5 runs worse. Cueto definitely has some things he needs to work on like all young pitchers do, specifically keeping the ball down more but he seems like a determined kid who will make the adjustments needed.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-20-2008, 03:45 PM
the Reds need to get serious above improving their defense. i feel sorry for Reds pitchers. the defensive lineup for last nights game was a joke.


Very true.

You can hide one bad glove out there, but when there are three or four are out there at once, it can get ugly real fast.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:46 PM
the Reds need to get serious above improving their defense. i feel sorry for Reds pitchers. the defensive lineup for last nights game was a joke.

I think the defense's impact has become the catch-all for the Reds' problems (along with Dusty).

OnBaseMachine
05-20-2008, 03:47 PM
I think the defense's impact has become the catch-all for the Reds' problems (along with Dusty).

Defense isn't the Reds only problem but it's clearly the biggest weakness on the team IMO.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:48 PM
Defense isn't the Reds only problem but it's clearly the biggest weakness on the team IMO.

I think it's pitching. But what do I know?

BRM
05-20-2008, 03:51 PM
I think it's pitching. But what do I know?

Do you think a good defense would at least make this pitching staff servicable?

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 03:55 PM
Do you think a good defense would at least make this pitching staff servicable?

I think you can make an 86 Cavalier serviceable with a good mechanic. Doesn't mean it's a good car.

I genuinely believe that if you want to do damage over the course of the season, you have to have the pitching first. A good defense can mask okay pitching for a while, but not forever.

Pitching first. Defense second.

BRM
05-20-2008, 03:57 PM
I think you can make an 86 Cavalier serviceable with a good mechanic. Doesn't mean it's a good car.

:laugh:

For the record, I agree with you. A good defense would definitely make the pitching somewhat better (obviously) but it would still be a bad pitching staff overall.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 03:59 PM
I think you can make an 86 Cavalier serviceable with a good mechanic. Doesn't mean it's a good car.


And even a great car is going to give you some bumps if you drive on a road filled with potholes.

Will M
05-20-2008, 03:59 PM
1. 5th starter
2. Jr
3. defense

Bruce for Jr removes an anemic bat and improves the defense.
Janish at SS instead of Hairston helps the defense.
These are easy in house fixes.

The 5th starter issue is tougher. Most posters and the Reds brass want Bailey to pitch more in AAA. I personally don't want to see any more of Belisle or Fogg. I'd rather try Lehr if Bailey isn't ready yet.
Belisle goes tonight. I hope he pitches great but so far this year he has been extremely hittable ( or very unlucky :D )

BuckeyeRedleg
05-20-2008, 04:04 PM
The 5th starter issue is tougher. Most posters and the Reds brass want Bailey to pitch more in AAA. I personally don't want to see any more of Belisle or Fogg. I'd rather try Lehr if Bailey isn't ready yet.
Belisle goes tonight. I hope he pitches great but so far this year he has been extremely hittable ( or very unlucky :D )

I'll take Maloney right now over Lehr or Bailey.

blumj
05-20-2008, 04:10 PM
I think you can make an 86 Cavalier serviceable with a good mechanic. Doesn't mean it's a good car.

I genuinely believe that if you want to do damage over the course of the season, you have to have the pitching first. A good defense can mask okay pitching for a while, but not forever.

Pitching first. Defense second.
I think it's just the opposite, that it's almost impossible to accumulate enough pitching good enough to mask a poor defense.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 04:10 PM
And even a great car is going to give you some bumps if you drive on a road filled with potholes.

Yeah, the defense isn't good at two positions right now. But I fail to see how a good defense keeps Cueto's pitches from leaving the park. Or Belisle's pitches from dead-red center of the plate. Or turn back the clock on David Weathers' or Kent Mercker's lives.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 04:11 PM
I think it's just the opposite, that it's almost impossible to accumulate enough pitching good enough to mask a poor defense.

That begs the question: is the Reds defense truly "poor?"

membengal
05-20-2008, 04:15 PM
Yes.

Particularly because Jr. is an absolute statue in RF.

And if Hairston continues to start at SS, that is a huge negative.

When CP is in CF, that's fine by me, but when Freel is out there? I don't see that as a positive. And Freel at 3b was brutal last night. I still cannot believe he didn't throw out Kemp on that easy ground ball.

Dunn in left field, despite being improved, is below average.

That leaves, what, 2b? And Votto has been decent at 1b. And EE, who is rapidly improving, manning 3b capably?

This is a bad defense. It really is.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 04:17 PM
Yeah, the defense isn't good at two positions right now. But I fail to see how a good defense keeps Cueto's pitches from leaving the park. Or Belisle's pitches from dead-red center of the plate. Or turn back the clock on David Weathers' or Kent Mercker's lives.

I agree you with on Cueto. The HR is his problem and defense doesn't help that.

But downplaying the effect of defense doesn't help us understand anything. You say two positions, I say worst DER in baseball. Bad defense leads to more hits, more runs, and more pitches -- which also leads to more runs by forcing you to use your lesser pitchers more often.

A 5.00 ERA pitcher isn't going to be an ace, but a good defense can make him a 4.75 ERA pitcher instead of a 5.50 ERA one. Matt Belisle isn't a good pitcher. But on a team with a good defense, he's serviceable; on the Reds, he isn't. He is who he is and I won't deny that. But the Reds defense brings out the worst in its pitchers by forcing them to be perfect.

FWIW, the Reds as a team have a FIP of 4.26 (assuming a 3.20 constant) and an ERA 4.58. So one could argue that their defense is costing them something on the order of .3 runs per game in earned runs. That's 50+ runs over the season -- 5 wins. Obviously that's back-of-the-envelope math, but I think it suggests we shouldn't just give it lip service.

wheels
05-20-2008, 04:18 PM
I'll take Maloney right now over Lehr or Bailey.

Seriously.

What about Maloney? I might be biased, but the guy is lights out right now, and he's a lefty.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 04:20 PM
Yes.

I don't see the Reds' defense being much worse than most teams now. Now that Janish has joined the roster. In fact, with Janish, Phillips, Patterson, and Bako up the middle, the defense is likely to be at least okay moving forward--close to great with Bruce in right.

Jeff Suppan, a guy who doesn't K many, hasn't been destroyed by a defense that's even worse than the Reds. The Marlins haven't been undone by a defense equally as bad as the Reds.

membengal
05-20-2008, 04:22 PM
Well, IF dusty would play Janish, I would agree with you.

Votto/Phillip/Janish/EE with CP in CF is a huge step forward. But if he runs out further left side of infield stuff like Hairston/Freel, this team will continue to suffer.

And, of course, getting Jr. out of RF and slotting in Bruce would be the rest of the defensive puzzle. That remains a pipe dream.

bucksfan2
05-20-2008, 04:23 PM
Yeah, the defense isn't good at two positions right now. But I fail to see how a good defense keeps Cueto's pitches from leaving the park. Or Belisle's pitches from dead-red center of the plate. Or turn back the clock on David Weathers' or Kent Mercker's lives.

I kinda agree with this. It suprises me because I hardly ever agree with FCB but I do here. How many runs does a good defense save Cueto? ERA won't really fluctuate when dealing with errors. So were basically talking about lack of range and poor baseball decisions. I would think outside of Jr and maybe Freel or Dunn the reds rate around league average at every other position. Lets assume that you can replace Bruce's D in right over Jr's and how many actual runs would that have prevented?

Will M
05-20-2008, 04:28 PM
C Bako/Ross
C Votto
A Phillips
A? Janish
C+ EE
D Dunn
A Patterson
B Bruce

B- Overall

The Reds D can actually be pretty good with the players we have IF they are on the roster and Dusty uses them properly.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 04:30 PM
I kinda agree with this. It suprises me because I hardly ever agree with FCB but I do here. How many runs does a good defense save Cueto? ERA won't really fluctuate when dealing with errors. So were basically talking about lack of range and poor baseball decisions. I would think outside of Jr and maybe Freel or Dunn the reds rate around league average at every other position. Lets assume that you can replace Bruce's D in right over Jr's and how many actual runs would that have prevented?

The overlooked portion of this is how many runs you lose by having to replace Cueto in the middle of the inning with Mike Lincoln because of the extra batter or two the defense caused him to face. The wasted pitches have value too because you end up needing another pitcher (likely a worse one) to get you those outs you gave away. It takes plate appearances away from your current pitcher and pushes them down the line, increasing the work load of the pitchers who should pitch the least.

wheels
05-20-2008, 04:34 PM
Well, IF dusty would play Janish, I would agree with you.

Votto/Phillip/Janish/EE with CP in CF is a huge step forward. But if he runs out further left side of infield stuff like Hairston/Freel, this team will continue to suffer.

And, of course, getting Jr. out of RF and slotting in Bruce would be the rest of the defensive puzzle. That remains a pipe dream.

That group of guys you mentioned would make up the most defensively gifted Reds club since 1999.

Patterson and Janish can't hit (is Janish the next Adam Everrett? If so, play him every day.), and Dusty would surely bat them 1-2 in the lineup, but that run supression potential makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

wheels
05-20-2008, 04:37 PM
C Bako/Ross
C Votto
A Phillips
A? Janish
C+ EE
D Dunn
A Patterson
B Bruce

B- Overall

The Reds D can actually be pretty good with the players we have IF they are on the roster and Dusty uses them properly.


Votto's better than advertised defensively. He makes young player mistakes, but there are times when he's looked absolutely slick out there.

Good athlete with a good body and glovework. I'm digging him more and more every day.

Falls City Beer
05-20-2008, 04:37 PM
The overlooked portion of this is how many runs you lose by having to replace Cueto in the middle of the inning with Mike Lincoln because of the extra batter or two the defense caused him to face. The wasted pitches have value too because you end up needing another pitcher (likely a worse one) to get you those outs you gave away. It takes plate appearances away from your current pitcher and pushes them down the line, increasing the work load of the pitchers who should pitch the least.

Would you know how many "missed outs" (errors + failure to record out due to range or whatever) have occurred because of the defense?

It's an honest question.

bucksfan2
05-20-2008, 04:46 PM
The overlooked portion of this is how many runs you lose by having to replace Cueto in the middle of the inning with Mike Lincoln because of the extra batter or two the defense caused him to face. The wasted pitches have value too because you end up needing another pitcher (likely a worse one) to get you those outs you gave away. It takes plate appearances away from your current pitcher and pushes them down the line, increasing the work load of the pitchers who should pitch the least.

Actually so far this year Cueto has been removed 3 times in the middle of innings and from what I have looked out the relief pitcher stranded all runners on base at the time.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 04:48 PM
Actually so far this year Cueto has been removed 3 times in the middle of innings and from what I have looked out the relief pitcher stranded all runners on base at the time.

I was using a specific imagined scenario to illustrate the general point. That's not necessarily an excuse for Cueto this year, but the general effect shouldn't be forgotten.

bucksfan2
05-20-2008, 04:57 PM
I was using a specific imagined scenario to illustrate the general point. That's not necessarily an excuse for Cueto this year, but the general effect shouldn't be forgotten.

I understand but it in this particular case it doesn't matter. In every game but 3 Cueto has pitched much better than his overall era dictates. However it is what it is. His era is largely inflated due to his struggles in a few games. In all reality I blame it more on being a rookie and the things that go along with his first few starts over poor defense or relief pitchers not stranding runners.

PuffyPig
05-20-2008, 05:15 PM
Would you know how many "missed outs" (errors + failure to record out due to range or whatever) have occurred because of the defense?

It's an honest question.


I believe I read somewhere here that the Reds defense this year was dead last in the majors in turning BIP into outs.

THat would be the truest test of bad defense.

Perhaps who posted that stat can confirm it?

Rojo
05-20-2008, 05:33 PM
I believe I read somewhere here that the Reds defense this year was dead last in the majors in turning BIP into outs.

THat would be the truest test of bad defense.

Perhaps who posted that stat can confirm it?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204024

IslandRed
05-20-2008, 05:54 PM
Would you know how many "missed outs" (errors + failure to record out due to range or whatever) have occurred because of the defense?

It's an honest question.

The Reds' "reached on errors" number is pretty much average, and of course walks, Ks and homers don't figure into defensive efficiency. Just doing the most basic math -- keeping the numbers of balls in play constant and subtracting hits to get the Reds' DER from the current .677 to .700, which is a typical league-median baseline most years -- the defense should have turned 28 more hits into outs than they have.

RedsManRick
05-20-2008, 06:31 PM
Would you know how many "missed outs" (errors + failure to record out due to range or whatever) have occurred because of the defense?

It's an honest question.

Well, if you look at our DER (.677) compared to league average (.700), that's one extra hit per every 43 balls in play 1/(.677-.700)). If you compare us to a good defensive team (.720), it works out to 1 extra hit every 23 balls in play (1/(.677-.720)).

The Reds currently average 19 outs per game from balls in play and allow 8 non-HR hits. That's 27 balls in play per game.

So, compared to an average team, the Reds defense plays two outs in to hits every 3 game series. Compared to a good team, it's one per game.

That's not monumental, but it's hardly marginal either. You're looking at something on the order of a game and a half worth of outs our defense has turned in to hits. Extrapolated, Reds pitchers will be forced to throw the equivalent of 5 games worth of innings due to the poor quality of their defense over the course of the season. That's like having to carry an extra reliever (45 innings) just because of the quality of your defense. And those extra innings end up filtering down to your worst relievers, who otherwise wouldn't have to pitch. That's just the "non-out" impact of a poor defense, to say nothing about the actual value of the hits given up.

wheels
05-20-2008, 07:37 PM
Well, if you look at our DER (.677) compared to league average (.700), that's one extra hit per every 43 balls in play 1/(.677-.700)). If you compare us to a good defensive team (.720), it works out to 1 extra hit every 23 balls in play (1/(.677-.720)).

The Reds currently average 19 outs per game from balls in play and allow 8 non-HR hits. That's 27 balls in play per game.

So, compared to an average team, the Reds defense plays two outs in to hits every 3 game series. Compared to a good team, it's one per game.

That's not monumental, but it's hardly marginal either. You're looking at something on the order of a game and a half worth of outs our defense has turned in to hits. Extrapolated, Reds pitchers will be forced to throw the equivalent of 5 games worth of innings due to the poor quality of their defense over the course of the season. That's like having to carry an extra reliever (45 innings) just because of the quality of your defense. And those extra innings end up filtering down to your worst relievers, who otherwise wouldn't have to pitch. That's just the "non-out" impact of a poor defense, to say nothing about the actual value of the hits given up.


That's a little bit scary.

Rojo
05-20-2008, 08:19 PM
Well, if you look at our DER (.677) compared to league average (.700), that's one extra hit per every 43 balls in play 1/(.677-.700)). If you compare us to a good defensive team (.720), it works out to 1 extra hit every 23 balls in play (1/(.677-.720)).

The Reds currently average 19 outs per game from balls in play and allow 8 non-HR hits. That's 27 balls in play per game.

So, compared to an average team, the Reds defense plays two outs in to hits every 3 game series. Compared to a good team, it's one per game.

That's not monumental, but it's hardly marginal either. You're looking at something on the order of a game and a half worth of outs our defense has turned in to hits. Extrapolated, Reds pitchers will be forced to throw the equivalent of 5 games worth of innings due to the poor quality of their defense over the course of the season. That's like having to carry an extra reliever (45 innings) just because of the quality of your defense. And those extra innings end up filtering down to your worst relievers, who otherwise wouldn't have to pitch. That's just the "non-out" impact of a poor defense, to say nothing about the actual value of the hits given up.

Nice cypherin'. Considering how bad the OF is, the number of bases given up is probably even scarier.

SteelSD
05-21-2008, 02:21 AM
That's a little bit scary.

It's scary, but we need to look deeper. Cueto's performances this season haven't actually been plagued by bad defense. His BABIP currently stands at .278. He's actually been getting hit-lucky while being HR-unlucky (18.6% HR/FB rate). The result is an FIP of 4.94. That's not bad for a guy taking MLB starts for the first year.

Take lumps. Learn your craft. Get better.

RedsManRick
05-21-2008, 03:34 AM
I think the defense story had moved away from the Cueto discussion a bit. Clearly Cueto's bugaboo has been the HR, which is reflected in his low LOB%. That comes down, and he's money.

Highlifeman21
05-21-2008, 09:40 PM
Food for thought.

All things being equal (and I know this is a stretch of the imagination), the difference between the Tampa Rays and the Cincinnati Reds is one team has abysmal defense, and the other, not so much.

Just think of where the Reds could be if the defense started to get better, while the pitching continues to improve?

Cedric
05-21-2008, 10:00 PM
Food for thought.

All things being equal (and I know this is a stretch of the imagination), the difference between the Tampa Rays and the Cincinnati Reds is one team has abysmal defense, and the other, not so much.

Just think of where the Reds could be if the defense started to get better, while the pitching continues to improve?

Krivsky was on the path. The problem is that he was saddled by Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr, and not having a C in the system. In the grand scheme of things I really liked what Wayne was trying to do overall. He just made some major bonehead mistakes and that cost us. Hopefully now we have a GM that can build on the strong nucleus and can find ML talent that fits right in. That's been exactly what Walt Jocketty has done his whole career. The guy knows how to build a bullpen and how to find cheap talent that is ML ready. I'm excited for next year after Dunn and Griffey are off the books.
And I love Adam Dunn. I just hope that with Jay Bruce we can either keep Dunn or move him for a few ML ready parts. This team needs flexibility and that's something we haven't had in ages.

wheels
05-21-2008, 10:10 PM
Krivsky was on the path. The problem is that he was saddled by Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr, and not having a C in the system. In the grand scheme of things I really liked what Wayne was trying to do overall. He just made some major bonehead mistakes and that cost us. Hopefully now we have a GM that can build on the strong nucleus and can find ML talent that fits right in. That's been exactly what Walt Jocketty has done his whole career. The guy knows how to build a bullpen and how to find cheap talent that is ML ready. I'm excited for next year after Dunn and Griffey are off the books.
And I love Adam Dunn. I just hope that with Jay Bruce we can either keep Dunn or move him for a few ML ready parts. This team needs flexibility and that's something we haven't had in ages.

Couldn't possibly agree more.

I think they SHOULD keep Dunn, but that additional payroll room they'd get (along with who they'd get in trade, or the draft picks) could possibly lessen the sting of losing him.

Highlifeman21
05-22-2008, 02:46 PM
Couldn't possibly agree more.

I think they SHOULD keep Dunn, but that additional payroll room they'd get (along with who they'd get in trade, or the draft picks) could possibly lessen the sting of losing him.

Payflex? Really?

Moving Dunn for payflex will help us?

I'm interested as to why you might believe that.

Falls City Beer
05-22-2008, 02:51 PM
Payflex? Really?

Moving Dunn for payflex will help us?

I'm interested as to why you might believe that.

I don't know; with Jocketty on board, that 16-17 million salary space Dunn's destined to take up next season might *actually* get filled with a true #2 or #3 pitcher and a hitter that could produce 3/4 of Dunn's production at about a third of the cost (and be an improvement at defense).

Jocketty's actually able to work with salary slots, unlike the past three GMs. I'm fine with keeping Dunn, but there's a reasonable argument that Dunn's salary space could be spent more effectively.

Highlifeman21
05-22-2008, 02:57 PM
I don't know; with Jocketty on board, that 16-17 million salary space Dunn's destined to take up next season might *actually* get filled with a true #2 or #3 pitcher and a hitter that could produce 3/4 of Dunn's production at about a third of the cost (and actually be an improvement at defense).

Jocketty's actually able to work with salary slots, unlike the past three GMs. I'm fine with keeping Dunn, but there's a reasonable argument that Dunn's salary space could be spent more effectively.

At a glance, I didn't see any true #2 or #3 that will be available in FA. And I'm skeptical as to what Jocketty would send to another team to get a true #2 or #3 for the Reds.

You're probably right that if any of our litany of GMs could utilize the potential payflex that is Dunn, Jocketty is the one to do it.

Now let's just keep our fingers crossed and see if he builds around and with Dunn, or moves Dunn for other parts that can help the team.

wheels
05-22-2008, 03:33 PM
Payflex? Really?

Moving Dunn for payflex will help us?

I'm interested as to why you might believe that.

You didn't read the part where I said I wanted them to keep him, and you've chosen to forget about the fact that I've been one of his most ardent supporters over the years (since before you've been a member).

But if I must explain my context, I merely stated that whatever they were to "gain" by losing him would be something of a cold comfort

That good enough for you?

Rojo
05-22-2008, 04:49 PM
At a glance, I didn't see any true #2 or #3 that will be available in FA. And I'm skeptical as to what Jocketty would send to another team to get a true #2 or #3 for the Reds.

Intrigued by Oliver Perez. The homers and walks are high but the k-rate is nifty and he's a lefty who's going to be 27 over the winter.

Highlifeman21
05-22-2008, 04:58 PM
You didn't read the part where I said I wanted them to keep him, and you've chosen to forget about the fact that I've been one of his most ardent supporters over the years (since before you've been a member).

But if I must explain my context, I merely stated that whatever they were to "gain" by losing him would be something of a cold comfort

That good enough for you?

I read the SHOULD in your original post, but then I was distracted by the concept of payflex. My apologies. And I never lumped you in with the anti-Dunn contingent, in fact I know you're more pro-Dunn than I am.

Just to explore the idea of payflex concerning losing Dunn, what do you think would be the cold comfort, and how would you spend the money generated by his vacancy?

FCB suggested using the monies vacated by Dunn to get some more TOR pitching, and then a LF that can be a better glove while being an offensive downgrade. How would you spend the money?

I apologize if I misread your post, but every time I read the concept of payflex concerning Dunn's future with the Reds, my eyes gloss over and I think to myself "oh boy, here we go again... "

Highlifeman21
05-22-2008, 05:00 PM
Intrigued by Oliver Perez. The homers and walks are high but the k-rate is nifty and he's a lefty who's going to be 27 over the winter.

You don't think the Mets will keep him?

wheels
05-22-2008, 05:25 PM
I read the SHOULD in your original post, but then I was distracted by the concept of payflex. My apologies. And I never lumped you in with the anti-Dunn contingent, in fact I know you're more pro-Dunn than I am.

Just to explore the idea of payflex concerning losing Dunn, what do you think would be the cold comfort, and how would you spend the money generated by his vacancy?

FCB suggested using the monies vacated by Dunn to get some more TOR pitching, and then a LF that can be a better glove while being an offensive downgrade. How would you spend the money?

I apologize if I misread your post, but every time I read the concept of payflex concerning Dunn's future with the Reds, my eyes gloss over and I think to myself "oh boy, here we go again... "

I know what you mean...

"Payflex" is not the optimal return for Dunn in my mind. If they're silly enough to get rid of him, I'd hope they'd get a pretty good return in trade (you can hope in one hand....). Letting him merely walk would be an attrocity.

How would I spend that money? Good question.

I'm not sure who will be available in FA, but if you're telling me that there is nobody, for the sake of argument, that's what we'll say.

Spread that dough around to make a more balanced roster, use the extra salary space to accquire a higher salaried player in trade, use it to lock up a Volquez or somebody....You can do lotsa good stuff with a big pile 'o dough, and I think Walt can come up with ideas I've never thought of.

I'll betcha a decent bat or two could be had and I trust Walt to cobble together a better pen than Wayne. Maybe he can come up with another starter..... I really think giving that guy a fairly clean salary slate gives him an opportunity to put together a fairly nice roster. He could do that without having to remove Dunn from the equation. In fact, I believe he's the guy to build around.

I can't believe that I'm actually discussing a post Dunn Reds.

I don't like it.

I just typed a little throwaway line and you had to go and make me think.:p:

What would you do?

Rojo
05-22-2008, 05:34 PM
You don't think the Mets will keep him?

I don't know. And I don't know how high I'd go. He has flaws.

Highlifeman21
05-23-2008, 03:01 PM
I know what you mean...

"Payflex" is not the optimal return for Dunn in my mind. If they're silly enough to get rid of him, I'd hope they'd get a pretty good return in trade (you can hope in one hand....). Letting him merely walk would be an attrocity.

How would I spend that money? Good question.

I'm not sure who will be available in FA, but if you're telling me that there is nobody, for the sake of argument, that's what we'll say.

Spread that dough around to make a more balanced roster, use the extra salary space to accquire a higher salaried player in trade, use it to lock up a Volquez or somebody....You can do lotsa good stuff with a big pile 'o dough, and I think Walt can come up with ideas I've never thought of.

I'll betcha a decent bat or two could be had and I trust Walt to cobble together a better pen than Wayne. Maybe he can come up with another starter..... I really think giving that guy a fairly clean salary slate gives him an opportunity to put together a fairly nice roster. He could do that without having to remove Dunn from the equation. In fact, I believe he's the guy to build around.

I can't believe that I'm actually discussing a post Dunn Reds.

I don't like it.

I just typed a little throwaway line and you had to go and make me think.:p:

What would you do?

Like you, my #1 option is keep Dunn. Lock him up to either 4 or 5 years. Pay him between $13-$15 Mil per year.

Regardless of keeping Dunn, moving Arroyo would be one of my top priorities, since I think he has some trade value and we could probably easily find someone that wants him. I'd target a true #2 or #3 in return, and if that means I need to attach Homer Bailey and Drew Stubbs and Travis Wood to that trade, then so be it. For 2009, I make sure that Volquez or Cueto don't have to be any better than a #4, and then between Belisle and Maloney, I'm sure we can find someone to anchor that #5. In fact, I think if Belisle was our #5, we'd actually win if we replaced Arroyo with a true #2 or #3. Or I could be crazy.

Another one of my top priorities would be to move KGJ for anything. It could be a C prospect, I don't care. Getting him off the roster offers us some payflex, and paves the way for Bruce to be the everyday RF.

Assuming we don't keep Dunn (and I'm with you, I don't like to envision that future), I try to replace his production while addressing another team need: CF. Jocketty had no problem obtaining Jim Edmonds, so I think I can reasonably assume that he knows how to address a team need. I'd shoot for the moon, and see what it would take to get a Grady Sizemore, or a Curtis Granderson, or a Jacoby Ellsbury, or maybe even a Chris Young. If I'm not shooting for the moon, I'd target guys like Shane Victorino, David Murphy (although he probably shouldn't play CF), Nate McLouth, Michael Bourn, Xavier Nady, Hunter Pence, Chris Gomez, BJ Upton, or perhaps even Nick Swisher. Tell me that any of these guys wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Freel or Patterson. Again, if we're not keeping Dunn, I try and get one of these guys in a trade involving Dunn prior to August 1. I honestly don't think we'll get any pitching that will help us for this year or in the window of 2009 to 2010 in a trade involving Dunn, so I try and target position players that will help us sooner, and hope I can get an interesting pitching prospect (or two) also.

There's also plenty of young, interesting catchers out there. I'm convinced that they can be had, we just have to be willing to pony up and pay the price. Although, if my choice is to upgrade CF vs. C, I pick CF everyday of the week, twice on Sundays.

As for pitching, I like Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Belisle (but only as the 5). We need another true TOR to compliment Harang and take the pressure off Cueto and Volquez. I'm fine with Bray, Burton and Cordero, but the rest of them, not so much. I'd plug an electric arm like Roenicke into the pen, and see how he fares. Let him audition the rest of 2008 at the MLB level to see if he can cut it for 2009 going forward. Guys like Affeldt, Fogg, Lincoln, and Weathers have no place on the roster, for my taste. I also don't see guys like Coffey or Livingston, or Majewski, or McBeth, or Mercker, or Ramon Ramirez making a difference on the MLB roster, therefore they are easily expendible. I'd hope we could get something to help bolster the pen, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Aside from Roenicke, another guy I'd get some MLB IP in 2008 is Tyler Pelland. At this point, why not, right? Let's see what he and Roenicke can honestly do. I'm also not convinced Bray is a true LOOGY, so we need to get one of those, and while we're at it, let's get a ROOGY to compliment the LOOGY, so we have the ability to pull LaRussa moves late in a game if we need an arm that can dominate one side of the plate for a hitter or two, ya know?

I think it was FCB who said it (maybe it this thread, maybe in another) that we have plenty of youngsters to move, and we need to do so in order to improve the MLB roster. They won't all develop to make it to the MLB level and make a difference, so let's try to identify the ones that might interest other teams and make a trade to improve our MLB roster.

Again, keeping Dunn is my preference, but if Jocketty and the Lettuce Man decide otherwise, then I hope we get something, rather than watching him leave town and cripple our team in the process.

wheels
05-23-2008, 05:01 PM
Like you, my #1 option is keep Dunn. Lock him up to either 4 or 5 years. Pay him between $13-$15 Mil per year.

Regardless of keeping Dunn, moving Arroyo would be one of my top priorities, since I think he has some trade value and we could probably easily find someone that wants him. I'd target a true #2 or #3 in return, and if that means I need to attach Homer Bailey and Drew Stubbs and Travis Wood to that trade, then so be it. For 2009, I make sure that Volquez or Cueto don't have to be any better than a #4, and then between Belisle and Maloney, I'm sure we can find someone to anchor that #5. In fact, I think if Belisle was our #5, we'd actually win if we replaced Arroyo with a true #2 or #3. Or I could be crazy.

Another one of my top priorities would be to move KGJ for anything. It could be a C prospect, I don't care. Getting him off the roster offers us some payflex, and paves the way for Bruce to be the everyday RF.

Assuming we don't keep Dunn (and I'm with you, I don't like to envision that future), I try to replace his production while addressing another team need: CF. Jocketty had no problem obtaining Jim Edmonds, so I think I can reasonably assume that he knows how to address a team need. I'd shoot for the moon, and see what it would take to get a Grady Sizemore, or a Curtis Granderson, or a Jacoby Ellsbury, or maybe even a Chris Young. If I'm not shooting for the moon, I'd target guys like Shane Victorino, David Murphy (although he probably shouldn't play CF), Nate McLouth, Michael Bourn, Xavier Nady, Hunter Pence, Chris Gomez, BJ Upton, or perhaps even Nick Swisher. Tell me that any of these guys wouldn't be a huge upgrade over Freel or Patterson. Again, if we're not keeping Dunn, I try and get one of these guys in a trade involving Dunn prior to August 1. I honestly don't think we'll get any pitching that will help us for this year or in the window of 2009 to 2010 in a trade involving Dunn, so I try and target position players that will help us sooner, and hope I can get an interesting pitching prospect (or two) also.

There's also plenty of young, interesting catchers out there. I'm convinced that they can be had, we just have to be willing to pony up and pay the price. Although, if my choice is to upgrade CF vs. C, I pick CF everyday of the week, twice on Sundays.

As for pitching, I like Harang, Cueto, Volquez and Belisle (but only as the 5). We need another true TOR to compliment Harang and take the pressure off Cueto and Volquez. I'm fine with Bray, Burton and Cordero, but the rest of them, not so much. I'd plug an electric arm like Roenicke into the pen, and see how he fares. Let him audition the rest of 2008 at the MLB level to see if he can cut it for 2009 going forward. Guys like Affeldt, Fogg, Lincoln, and Weathers have no place on the roster, for my taste. I also don't see guys like Coffey or Livingston, or Majewski, or McBeth, or Mercker, or Ramon Ramirez making a difference on the MLB roster, therefore they are easily expendible. I'd hope we could get something to help bolster the pen, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Aside from Roenicke, another guy I'd get some MLB IP in 2008 is Tyler Pelland. At this point, why not, right? Let's see what he and Roenicke can honestly do. I'm also not convinced Bray is a true LOOGY, so we need to get one of those, and while we're at it, let's get a ROOGY to compliment the LOOGY, so we have the ability to pull LaRussa moves late in a game if we need an arm that can dominate one side of the plate for a hitter or two, ya know?

I think it was FCB who said it (maybe it this thread, maybe in another) that we have plenty of youngsters to move, and we need to do so in order to improve the MLB roster. They won't all develop to make it to the MLB level and make a difference, so let's try to identify the ones that might interest other teams and make a trade to improve our MLB roster.

Again, keeping Dunn is my preference, but if Jocketty and the Lettuce Man decide otherwise, then I hope we get something, rather than watching him leave town and cripple our team in the process.


See....We're in total agreement.:beerme: