View Full Version : Dunn or Suzuki
05-21-2008, 02:48 PM
A thread on ORG got me to thinking. Would you rather have Ichiro or Dunn?
05-21-2008, 02:52 PM
Didn't Dunn become Ichiro last season?
05-21-2008, 03:08 PM
This team desperately needs a Lead Off Hitter, but I would rather have Dunn...
Besides Ichiro is like 35 going to be 36, Dunn is 28 and should be going into his PRIME years...
05-21-2008, 03:58 PM
Not even close. Ichiro is a far better over all player. He's an outstanding fielder, miles ahead of Dunn in the field, and a better hitter.
In the ORG discussion, it started when someone posted that according the the SABR stat Runs Created, Dunn creates more runs than Ichiro. The problems with that stat it is that is meant to be applied to teams and does not work well when applied to individuals, and it is a 30 year old stat that has been improved on many times in the last 30 years. Even Bill James, who created it, has admitted to its problems and that the newer versions are better, especially when applied to individuals.
The basic problem with Runs Created is that when applied to individuals, it overvalues walks and homeruns. In the formula, it assigns the same value to walks as to singles and assigns a 4-1 ratio for home runs to singles. In reality, walks are worth around 2/3 of a single in terms of run production, and home runs are worth around a 3-1 ratio to singles. Hence, Dunn's RC # will be artificially higher than Ichiro since most of Dunn's numbers come from walks and HR.
A latter poster used an updated version that uses the more realistic values for each event, and showed that Ichiro create more runs than Dunn. Throw in the defense, and Ichiro is far more valuable than Dunn.
05-21-2008, 04:41 PM
This is a no-brainer. I'd take Ichiro in a second.
It depends if we want hits or runs. Dunn drives in more runs and actually scores more consistenly. I admit that I'm not an expert at stats but I don't see Ichiro as a run-producing type of hitter.
He would be great to have as a lead-off man but I would rather have someone like Dunn who gets guys like Ichiro across the plate.
05-21-2008, 04:58 PM
Neither. Why waste money on Ichiro when you could have an OF of Hopper, Patterson, and Freel? Speed, dude, speed.
05-21-2008, 04:59 PM
Pretty open-ended question. What's the context? For one game, one season, in his prime, for $20M over 7 years, with the bases loaded, 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game?!?
How about right now, for this season? I would take Ichiro. Bat him leadoff and put him in CF. Just increased our productivity for our CF-er about 100 fold.
You could call up Bruce and put him in LF.
Still be stuck with Griffey in RF, but you'd be better off overall.
Long-term, or for he next 4-5 years. Give me Dunn. He's in his prime and you can expect him to get his ~40/100/100/100 - especially IF you knew how to utilize him right. I could live with CF Patterson in CF if Bruce was playing RF, until we developed/found/stole another defensive CF-er with a better bat.
05-21-2008, 05:09 PM
It there wasn't an age difference my pick would be Ichiro, but there is. Dunn is much younger than Ichiro. I would take Dunn easily after taking that into account.
05-21-2008, 05:32 PM
defense... that is all
05-21-2008, 05:50 PM
Disregarding age I take Ichiro, in reality I take Dunn.
05-21-2008, 07:22 PM
Well they are going to cost about the same $ wise. In overall total runs Dunn will factor in more runs for the team if you take into account both runs scored and rbis. Dunn wont steal bases like ichiro and doesnt have the defense nor the arm Ichiro has. Ichiro is older than Dunn also. Very hard choice. The Reds need a top of the lineup type hitter so I'm saying Ichiro........could I also give them Griffey and bring Bruce up? :)
05-21-2008, 07:51 PM
If these guys were the same age, Ichiro. No discussion whatsoever.
Even with the age difference, I'd still think about it. However, I'd grudgingly pick Dunn. He'd give us more years, but that's all I'd like about it.
05-22-2008, 09:09 PM
If Ichiro were 50 years old, he's STILL be in much better physical shape than Adam Dunn - so the age thing doesn't mean much to me.
Ichiro by a longshot.
05-23-2008, 09:01 AM
Ok, if we're wanting runs then I would take Dunn but the Reds also need a lead-off hitter which Freel is not doing that bad but Ichiro is, well Ichiro and he provides fielding, quickness, and A LEADOFF HITTER. The only problem would be Ichiro's age, and in a few years this would be our out field LF ?, CF Ichiro, RF Jay Bruce
05-23-2008, 10:29 AM
Ichiro, he's better in every aspect of the game save power.
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