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dunner13
05-23-2008, 12:10 PM
At this point in the year its not time to give up but I do think its time to play for next year. The moves I would make are...
1. Trade Griffey. If seattle wants him they can have him. Put Bruce in Right and keep him there til he retires.
2. Sign Dunn to a long term contract. I know alot of people want to trade him but we have no way to replace his .400OBP and 40 Homeruns.
3. Trade Arroyo. Even though he has struggled this year plenty of teams would still be interested. Try to get a young catcher for him.
4. Do the unthinkable and trade Harang. With Volsquez, Cueto, Bailey and Thompson Harang becomes expendable. If the reds can get a close to ready pitching prospect like Crow in the draft they will have even more depth. Try to get a young SS, CF and pitcher for Harang. Hes a stud and could be used to fill alot of holes for us.
5. Trade hatteberg for whatever you can get for him.
Let the young kids play the rest of 08 out and hopefully they will be ready to compete for the division in 09.

smoke6
05-23-2008, 12:22 PM
Keep Harang. I'm ok with everything else.

tommycash
05-23-2008, 12:25 PM
I can go for everything but trading Harang. And I am very shocked that Walt hasn't done anything as GM.

UK Reds Fan
05-23-2008, 12:30 PM
1. Don't panic...2008 is a dead year..but there is a future.
2. We lose nearly $34 Million in contracts this off-season
a. Griff's 9 M (Bruce)
b. Stanton's 3.5M (currently DFA'd)
c. Castro 1M (Keppinger/Janish)
d. Ross 3M (FA)
e. Hatteburg 1.25M (Keppinger platoon with Votto)
f. Valentin 2M (Hannigan)
g. Coffey 950k (Pelland/Roenicke)
h. Belisle 1.25M (Bailey/Lehr)
i. Patterson 3M (Freel/FA fine with me)
j. Fogg 1M (Pelland/Roenicke/Herrara)

- 24 Million is hardly contributing or is basically hurting the current team.
3. Dunn (13M) and Affeldt (3M) are the only contracts at play that are guys that bring something to the table that we can't readily replace from farm system.
4. I'd lean towards trading Dunn and spending the money on RH bat with better defense in LF...but I could as well keep Dunn. Just depends upon terms of contract.
5. I'd look to see what Arroyo or Freel could fetch in hopes of getting an average catcher and/or CF with good defense.
6. Any of #2, trade them for waht you can get (Griffey, Hatteberg could have some value)

In the end, Bruce can be a big upgrade over Griffey, there is money for a RH bat in LF if so desired or for an extra starter in the rotation if Cueto/Bailey ain't going to cut it as a starter.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 12:31 PM
1. Don't panic...2008 is a dead year..but there is a future.
2. We lose nearly $34 Million in contracts this off-season

But it is what the FO does with that 34 Million... The way they put Money into players over the last few years doesn't make any sense...

OUReds
05-23-2008, 12:32 PM
4. Do the unthinkable and trade Harang. With Volsquez, Cueto, Bailey and Thompson Harang becomes expendable. If the reds can get a close to ready pitching prospect like Crow in the draft they will have even more depth. Try to get a young SS, CF and pitcher for Harang. Hes a stud and could be used to fill alot of holes for us.


Yikes! That would certainly take, as Colbert would say, Huevos Grandes. Thompson and Bailey are far, FAR from sure things to ever contribute to a major league rotation.

We could expect a return similar to the Bedard and Haren trade I expect. I just don't see getting three major league ready guys for Harang. We could expect one near major league ready guy, but the rest of the return would likely be longer term projects. If you think we're setting up to compete from 2009-2011, I just don't think that's a trade you can make.

ChatterRed
05-23-2008, 12:58 PM
Patience grasshoppers.

CRedsLarkin11
05-23-2008, 01:22 PM
As much of a mess as the roster has become there are some things that have been done right. Harang is perfect for the Reds, he's signed for cheap considering his production and is a top 5 starter in the national league. Brandon Phillips also fits this mold and unfortunately, so did Josh Hamilton (but that's another story) Basically, I agree with most of what you said except trading Harang. I also don't really like the idea of extending Dunn but if his salary is reasonable and we add another decent RH bat that plays defense to the outfield in center or right to complement Bruce and Dunn, things might actually work out pretty well

Natty Redlocks
05-23-2008, 01:35 PM
I'd love to see Griffey traded too, but I really don't see it happening. Besides, we want CF to be the only place open for Bruce so the Corey Patterson era can end ASAP.

Jocketty needs to Dusty-proof the top of the lineup and improve the bullpen to protect his young pitchers. If they move forward as expected, this team will contend next year. As long as they don't do something monumentally stupid like trade Aaron Harang.

44Magnum
05-23-2008, 01:48 PM
I like everything except for 2 and 4. By letting Dunn walk, you can go after another player or two via FA and still keep Harang.

Newman4
05-23-2008, 02:02 PM
1. Don't panic...2008 is a dead year..but there is a future.
2. We lose nearly $34 Million in contracts this off-season


Sounds good, but you have to factor in the raises for players under contract already as well:

1. Cordero goes from 8.5 to 12 million (+3.5 million difference)
2. Harang - 6.75 to 11 (+4.25)
3. Griffey buyout if he's not traded (+4)
4. Arroyo - 3.95 to 9.5 (+5.55)
5. Phillips - 2.75 to 4.75 (+2)
6. Freel - 3 to 4 (+1)

That's a little over 20 million $.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 02:03 PM
I like everything except for 2 and 4. By letting Dunn walk, you can go after another player or two via FA and still keep Harang.

But what other Free Agents are out there? Vladamir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez are the only top Power Hitting Outfielders on the market besides Dunn?

The Club will probably pay Griffey the 4 Million Opt out... So Where will the Power Come from? If Griffey is going to be gone, you need to keep AD and sign a Right Handed Hitting Power Hitter to compliment him...

This team also needs to shore up SS, C, Relief Pitching, and shoot me if you want, 3B...

AdamDunn
05-23-2008, 02:05 PM
Fire Dusty, bring back WK and resign.

In all seriousness though. I think if we can't resign Dunn during the season to a reasonable deal, then trade him or let him go (for arbitration picks of course). We can get lots of picks next year if we let Griffey and Dunn go through arbitration or we can get prospects for both.

Keep Harang, and see if Arroyo can turn it around. If he can, see if we can find any takers. I'm not concerned with Arroyo because his contract isn't that big.

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 02:25 PM
1> Trade Griffey. Now. John Mclaren can drive down to San Diego and pick him up tonight, for all I care. Doesn't even matter what you get in return - bucket of balls, PTBNL, jock strap, etc - just pray they'll pick up the rest of his '08 contract.

2> Let Dunn walk. I *definitely* give Adam Dunn credit for his overall value to the tea....errr....the offense, but he just is not the type of player you can build your team around, imo. The Yanks or Sox or Dodgers or Cubs can "afford" to spend $15 mill/year on a guy like him, but not the Reds. If the Reds are spending that kind of money on ONE guy - he'd damn well better be MVP material. And Dunn is not.

3> Trading Arroyo would be god's gift to Cincinnati baseball (if some idiot GM were willing to pick up his contract), but it won't happen. Maybe if Isiah Thomas gets a gig in MLB somewhere, but I don't see that happening. Arroyo is a Red - so just deal with it (and his ridiculous JTM commercials).

4> Don't panic. I'm 29, and for the first time in my life, I literally have NO worries about the future of this franchise. The Reds may not win a World Series in the next 5 years, but they've got more young talent right now than I've ever seen in my life. Trim some of the fat (Patterson/Stanton/Fogg/etc), stay away from overprice free agents, and allow the future of the organization to work their way up to the bigs.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 02:47 PM
2> Let Dunn walk. I *definitely* give Adam Dunn credit for his overall value to the tea....errr....the offense, but he just is not the type of player you can build your team around, imo. The Yanks or Sox or Dodgers or Cubs can "afford" to spend $15 mill/year on a guy like him, but not the Reds. If the Reds are spending that kind of money on ONE guy - he'd damn well better be MVP material. And Dunn is not.

3> Trading Arroyo would be god's gift to Cincinnati baseball (if some idiot GM were willing to pick up his contract), but it won't happen. Maybe if Isiah Thomas gets a gig in MLB somewhere, but I don't see that happening. Arroyo is a Red - so just deal with it (and his ridiculous JTM commercials).

2. That is a defensable position of course, but if you are looking to contend in the next few years, how are you going to replace Dunn's offense? There are no replacements ready in the system, and the free agent market is slim. With Phillips, Kep, Votto, Bruce, and EE reasonably cheap for the near future, why not overpay for Dunn? The alternative is to hope Jocketty can fleece another GM or heavily dip into the minor league talent, and frankly you can't count on the first and I'm not too keen on the second idea.

edit: I'm not singling you out here, this seems to be a common view on the board. I think it's worth it's own thread.

3. Arroyo is still striking people out and he has a history of success. Assuming he pitches reasonably well here on out, there will be a market for him. He might even be the best pitcher available at the deadline.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 02:51 PM
I would like Walt to aquire Brandon Inge...

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 03:33 PM
OU Reds --> you replace Adam Dunn's offense thru your farm system, ideally. Is Jay Bruce that guy? I have no idea - but I sure hope so. But the Reds can't afford to overpay ANYONE. They're a small-market team, and need to be run more efficiently, and built around UNDERpaid youngsters - not overpaid vets like Adam Dunn.

I'm not trying to attack Adam Dunn - but he's the only guy on the current team who's capable of inking a long-term, $15 million/year deal in the offseason. That's suicide for Cincinnati, imo. Well, unless he turns out to be the next A-Rod or Pujols (bet you a nickel that won't happen, by the way).



Everyone seems so daggone worried about replacing Adam Dunn - 40 homers / 100 runs / 100 rbi / .400 ob% / etc / etc.

Well - who do the Twins have that consistently hit like that every year? What about the A's? Doesn't seem to bother them too much.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 03:41 PM
OU Reds --> you replace Adam Dunn's offense thru your farm system, ideally. Is Jay Bruce that guy? I have no idea - but I sure hope so. But the Reds can't afford to overpay ANYONE. They're a small-market team, and need to be run more efficiently, and built around UNDERpaid youngsters - not overpaid vets like Adam Dunn.

I'm not trying to attack Adam Dunn - but he's the only guy on the current team who's capable of inking a long-term, $15 million/year deal in the offseason. That's suicide for Cincinnati, imo. Well, unless he turns out to be the next A-Rod or Pujols (bet you a nickel that won't happen, by the way).



Everyone seems so daggone worried about replacing Adam Dunn - 40 homers / 100 runs / 100 rbi / .400 ob% / etc / etc.

Well - who do the Twins have that consistently hit like that every year? What about the A's? Doesn't seem to bother them too much.

Once Bruce replaces Griffey, we're fresh out of underpaid young bats, and one of the benefits of having those underpaid young bats is the ability to have a few adequately compensated veterans.

As far as the Twins, I'd say this guy fits the bill.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/morneju01.shtml

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 04:26 PM
^^

I had to BR his stats myself, but I was surprised to find that Dunn has actually been better in many areas, and certainly more consistent.


100 runs:
Morneau = 0
Dunn = 4 years in a row (99 in '06)

100 walks:
Morneau = never
Dunn = 4 years in a row

.380 on-base %:
Morneau = never
Dunn = 4 of 5 years

100 rbi:
Morneau = 2 years in a row
Dunn = 3 of 4 years




In other words, the Reds have Adam Dunn - who is easily superior to anyone on the Twins - and yet we stink, and they seem to contend for the Central every single year. I'm sure there's some amateur Sabermetrician on here who will gladly volunteer the opinion that the Reds will lose 100 games next year without Dunn's bat in the lineup, but I just don't see it.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 04:57 PM
^^

I had to BR his stats myself, but I was surprised to find that Dunn has actually been better in many areas, and certainly more consistent.


100 runs:
Morneau = 0
Dunn = 4 years in a row (99 in '06)

100 walks:
Morneau = never
Dunn = 4 years in a row

.380 on-base %:
Morneau = never
Dunn = 4 of 5 years

100 rbi:
Morneau = 2 years in a row
Dunn = 3 of 4 years




In other words, the Reds have Adam Dunn - who is easily superior to anyone on the Twins - and yet we stink, and they seem to contend for the Central every single year. I'm sure there's some amateur Sabermetrician on here who will gladly volunteer the opinion that the Reds will lose 100 games next year without Dunn's bat in the lineup, but I just don't see it.


Let me start this by saying, Johan Santana...

Besides, Justin Mourneau - Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, and 1 year of Francisco Liriano...

Let me close by saying, Joe Nathan...

OUReds
05-23-2008, 05:02 PM
It's not going to take a sabermetrician to point out the differences between the Twins and the Reds the last 4 years or so, and it has very little to do with either team's offense and Adam and a WHOLE LOT to do with pitching.....

Orodle
05-24-2008, 03:07 PM
Yes move Jr
Yes sign Dunn
TRADE HARANG???? c'mon why? You can never have enough pitching! Expendable? WTF? I got news, Bailey and Thompson might be major league pitchers but arnt going to be the type of big game pitchers that Harang is. Cueto has been shakey as well.
Trade Hatteberg? ya you could but your not going to get much of anything for him.