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OUReds
05-23-2008, 03:24 PM
I hesitate to start another Dunn thread, but here it goes anyway.

It seems a common viewpoint here on the old Sun Deck is that Dunn might be a valuable offensive player, but given that he is not a complete player, he is not worth 16-18 Million dollars/year to the Reds. I'm not particularly interested in debating the extent of how good an offensive player he is, or how poor other aspects of his game are, but given that....

a) Dunn is a valuable offensive player

b) He will get at least 16 million/year somewhere

c) The Reds are going to try to compete for a division title in the next 3-4 years

Then how are the Reds going to replace Dunn's offensive contribution over that window of competition? Other then Bruce, who is clearly ticketed to replace Griffey, there are no intriguing in-house bats close to matching Dunn. Valaika is in AA, Frazier is in High A. Neither will be ready next year and relying on them in 2010 is hardly a sure thing either.

I won't repost next year's free agents, but it's safe to say that the class is poor. Even if it weren't, since when has Cincy been able to reliably attract free agent talent without overpaying for it to a greater extent then it will take to retain Dunn?

The other possibility is a trade. Maybe Jocketty pulls off another Edmonds deal, but you can't rely on that. The alternative is using some Minor league depth to add a bat, but are we really willing to trade Frazier and Thompson to add another impact bat? Besides, there are other holes to fill on this team if we are serious about winning in the next few years (catcher, SS and another starting pitcher come to mind). Why create a new hole in the dyke when three other holes remain?

Make no mistake, last year the offense was barely above average. This year it threatens to be below average. Are we going to reap the fruits of a revamped pitching staff (admittedly not a sure thing in and of itself) only to be foiled by a poor offense that could have been, if not prevented, then ameliorated by resigning Dunn?

Maybe a 4 yr/66 Mil contract is overpaying for Dunn without considering the context. However, the Reds currently have Votto, Bruce, EE, Phillips, and Kep wrapped up for our contention window relatively cheaply. The same goes for Bray, Burton, Cueto, and (most importantly) Volquez. This creates a unique situation where we can actually afford Dunn, where in most years that would be impossible. If we let him walk, what good will additional payflex do us exactly if we can't turn it into actual production? Why not overpay for Dunn?

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 03:38 PM
Because it's a waste of money. The Reds are a small market team, and they need to act like it. Build thru your farm system and stay away from overpriced vets. It hasn't worked out for the Mets, it hasn't worked out for the Yankees, it hasn't worked out for the Blue Jays - so why would it work out for the Reds??

OUReds
05-23-2008, 03:44 PM
But we HAVE rebuilt through our farm system, or at least young players we control relatively cheaply. Once you have done that, why not add (or retain) complementary parts at market value?

If this were the Jim Bowden Reds with no youth and a poor farm system, I would be the first to agree that Dunn should go, but the money to Dunn wouldn't be a waste, it would go towards trying to get in the playoffs.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 04:07 PM
But we HAVE rebuilt through our farm system, or at least young players we control relatively cheaply. Once you have done that, why not add (or retain) complementary parts at market value?

If this were the Jim Bowden Reds with no youth and a poor farm system, I would be the first to agree that Dunn should go, but the money to Dunn wouldn't be a waste, it would go towards trying to get in the playoffs.

Yeah, and I like the Idea that Dunn is Home Grown... Those players are far and few between now... Besides Dunn should just now be going into his PRIME Hitting years...

Get this team a Legit Lead Off Hitter and some Right Handed Power Protection for Adam Dunn and this team will score more Runs...

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 04:14 PM
Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 04:27 PM
Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.

Dude, Ramirez just signed for 70 Million to buy out his arbitration years... Giambi just ripped off the Yankees with a Suplement MVP Award.

But anyhow... What are the Reds going to do with the 15 Million they save on not keeping Dunn? What?

Wait, in 5-6 years, when the New Home Grown Talent is here, then Cueto, Volquez, and Bruce will be looking at Free Agency and out the Door too...

There is no reason, not to sign Adam Dunn. What are they going to do with that Money he saves them? Nothing... Unless Corey Patterson seeks an extension and a raise.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 04:27 PM
Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.




That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.


Dude, Ramirez just signed for 70 Million to buy out his arbitration years... Giambi just ripped off the Yankees with a Suplement MVP Award.

But anyhow... What are the Reds going to do with the 15 Million they save on not keeping Dunn? What?

Wait, in 5-6 years, when the New Home Grown Talent is here, then Cueto, Volquez, and Bruce will be looking at Free Agency and out the Door too...

There is no reason, not to sign Adam Dunn. What are they going to do with that Money he saves them? Nothing... Unless Corey Patterson seeks an extension and a raise.

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 04:36 PM
^^

Invest it in more Dominicans. True story. Volquez signed for $27k, right? Cueto for $35?


Now THAT is a helluva deal.



Paying Adam Dunn more than $15 mill....is not.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 04:47 PM
Market value? Once a player hits free agency, "Market Value" is out the door, 99% of the time. If the Reds pay Adam Dunn the type of money he'll be looking for, it will seriously hamstring the franchise, imo. Hell, his $13.5 mill seems like a huge burden RIGHT NOW. Can't even imagine how much worse it will be at $15/16/17+.

Hanley Ramirez makes $439,000 this year.
Jason Giambi makes $23.4 million.



That is why baseball is a beautiful sport. *Smart* GMs can "manipulate" the system and take advantage of younger players - which is what Cincinnati should do. Let fools like Omar Minaya, Ned Colletti and Brian Cashman-Steinbrenner throw money around to older vets like it grows on trees. I'm not interested in it.

Once a player hits free agency, that's when market value kicks in. Do you think Volquez is being paid his "market value" this year? Do you think $439,000 that is really Hanley Ramirez's market value? Of course you use young players to keep your payroll down, that's small market baseball 101, I'm not arguing against that.

What I am saying is that once you have identified a window you can realistically compete in, getting absolute maximum efficiency for every dollar takes a back seat to getting proven production.

For example, it may well be more economically "efficient" to let Dunn walk and pay Dorn the major league minimum to play left field next year, but without a way to parlay the extra money elsewhere into increased performance, overall production will sure as heck suffer.

"Throwing money around to vets like it grows on trees" is a very different matter then selectively signing productive players to market value extensions...as long as it is done with a lot of care.

Obviously you can take the scenario to far. If Dunn want a 5 yr/100 Mil contract, then see ya later thanks for the service. But if it is a matter of overpaying a bit to have a better chance at a title, sign me up.

Edit: Investing 15 million dollars in the Dominican to replace Dunn isn't going to help us compete in the next 1-4 years, and due to diminishing returns I doubt it will help after that either. I'm not interesting in perpetually rebuilding. Haven't we had enough of that?

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 04:55 PM
^^

Invest it in more Dominicans. True story. Volquez signed for $27k, right? Cueto for $35?


Now THAT is a helluva deal.



Paying Adam Dunn more than $15 mill....is not.


You are so uninformed. I'll leave it at that.

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 04:56 PM
True, I completely understand the difference. But I still don't think a player's free agent contract typically represents his "market value," but rather the money idiots are willing to OVERpay when they become desperate (raise your hand if you'd give Andruw Jones $18 mill/year).

Most everything you say is totally legitimate, and I wouldn't mind spending some big money on a truly GREAT, MVP-type player --> but Dunn ain't that guy. If he *was* that great of a player, then the Reds wouldn't struggle so much (especially offensively).


Can you count on Adam Dunn day-in and day-out to be a true SUPERstar? No. If you COULD, then, by all means, take advantage of that window of opportunity that we Reds fans think we're in right now and make a run. But you CAN'T depend on him like a true superstar, so don't pay him like a true superstar.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 04:58 PM
What I love is the idiots who decided that Dunn should be gone after a slow start. WHY?

For 5 years now he's shown that he is the same player he's always been. He'll get his #'s like he always does and continue to be one of the most consistent run producers in baseball.

Those people wanted to act like a month/slow start should outweigh a track record of 5 years.

He's the same player whether he's slumping or not and he deserves a good long term deal. Very few can do what he does and the son of a gun goes out and plays every day. He's durable and the Reds have no clue how to replace his offense. He'll be back.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 04:59 PM
Can you count on Adam Dunn day-in and day-out to be a true SUPERstar? No. If you COULD, then, by all means, take advantage of that window of opportunity that we Reds fans think we're in right now and make a run. But you CAN'T depend on him like a true superstar, so don't pay him like a true superstar.


So every player making in the $15-17 million dollar range is a 'Superstar' as you put it?

757690
05-23-2008, 05:03 PM
Good post. I agree with your logic that the Reds need to add some veteran compliments to the young studs that they have coming up, and I do agree that Dunn is a good compliment to that young talent, but I don't agree that they need to or should over pay for him.

That has been my objection to re-signing Dunn all along. He has been at the heart of the Reds offense for the past four years, and has done well. But because of the market, he will get at minimum the contract that you listed, 4/$66M. It is not that he is not worth it, but that the Reds could spend that money more wisely, and being a mid market team, they need to.

Next year most likely, the Reds will have Bruce and Votto with a year under their belts, EE hopefully will be as good as he is now, either Keppinger or Alex G back at SS, and it looks like Phillips is getting better every week. That is a very good foundation for an offense.

However, they also will need to find a CF, a catcher, almost a whole new bullpen and bench, and maybe a fifth starter. That is if they keep Dunn. If they keep Dunn and pay him what he is worth, they will have no money left over to pay for any of those other positions. That means someone worse than Patterson in CF, worse than Ross at catcher, a bullpen full of Lincolns instead of Affeldts, and a fifth starter worse than Fogg.

Why not move EE to left, sign or trade for a mid range strong defensive 3B who can probably be had for mid range prospects and a $5M salary, then use the left over $10M or so to try to fill in the other gaps with real MLB starters?

Again, I may seem like a Dunn basher, but I really do like him and understand how productive he is, I just think that the money that would need to be spent on him, needs to be spent more wisely. That said, if Jocketty looks over the market and sees that what I suggested is not possible, than maybe the wisest thing is to sign Dunn?

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 05:05 PM
So every player making in the $15-17 million dollar range is a 'Superstar' as you put it?



$15+ mill/year is SUPERSTAR money - top 25 in the majors. Several of the guys on that list don't nearly earn it (stand up and be counted, Richie Sexson), but it's superstar money nonetheless.


If it's my ballclub, I'm not paying someone like Adam Dunn superstar-type money. And that was the original question.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 05:12 PM
Thats it... Look at the Market... It is a very Bad one... The best thing for Bob and Walt to do, is sign Dunn in season... After Manny Ramirez and Vladamir Guerrero, there is Adam Dunn... So, He will get more than Carlos Lee if he gets out there and that is 18-19 Million, so if the Reds can get him during the Season inked for 66/4 then " Do It."

There are no other Options... Besides Signing Cory Patterson to a Lifetime Contract.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:16 PM
$15+ mill/year is SUPERSTAR money - top 25 in the majors. Several of the guys on that list don't nearly earn it (stand up and be counted, Richie Sexson), but it's superstar money nonetheless.


If it's my ballclub, I'm not paying someone like Adam Dunn superstar-type money. And that was the original question.

"Superstar" is a tough thing to define.

I know some outside of this city think Dunn is our superstar. He's the one guy in the lineup that can beat you with one swing of the bat every single time (which is why you don't miss a Dunn at-bat, and why he is a lightning rod IMHO); now whether he does it or not is another story.

Dunn is a great player, don't kid yourself. He's on his way to being a hall of famer. Paint whatever picture you want, there isn't close to 25 other guys in the league that can do what he can do.

Now if by "Superstar" you mean flawless, like just a few other players (maybe 1 to 5 in MLB) then I'll admit he isn't flawless or a superstar if that is how you define it.

The bottom line, we barely hit now. Without Dunn we'd score even fewer runs, by a long shot. Now how would that be? There is NO ONE close to his production available. If you want to win; and if Castelini wants to win, Dunn is back for several more years through his prime. It's common sense. It is an easy call.

Boston Red
05-23-2008, 05:17 PM
So every player making in the $15-17 million dollar range is a 'Superstar' as you put it?

They damn well should be. I don't think you should pay that kind of money for a player knowing full well he WON'T be a superstar.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 05:19 PM
Nice post 757690. My worry, is that in 2007, we were an essentially average NL offense. Bruce replaces Griffey's 2007 stats, the improvements for Votto (who has to make up for a pretty decent 2007 for Hatteburg) and EE and Phillips essentialy make up the decreased production in LF, and we are treading water as again an average offense, and I see that as a best case scenario.

Another part of my problem is that I don't think the additional holes we have CAN be filled with money, at least not without overpaying like we did with Cordero. They are going to have to come through trades and youth (and trading youth :) ).

I really, REALLY want a winner these next 3-4 years, and even if we are overpaying for Dunn, I just can't come up with a specific situation where that money is better spent then on Dunn. Obviously what is "too much" for Dunn is tough to pin down though.

PTI: Elite "superstar" players (those who can hit and play premium defensive positions) make more then 15 million dollars per year in today's market. They just do.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:24 PM
$15 million a year (backloaded) over 5 years gets it done and has Adam back here for 5 more years.

He's worth every penny. And could get more than that.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:25 PM
They damn well should be. I don't think you should pay that kind of money for a player knowing full well he WON'T be a superstar.

Well reality is that superstars make more than that amount of money usually, and that amount would be a fair contract to get a known commodity, which Dunn very much is; despite what Cincinnati fans think of him.

757690
05-23-2008, 05:33 PM
"Superstar" is a tough thing to define.

I know some outside of this city think Dunn is our superstar. He's the one guy in the lineup that can beat you with one swing of the bat every single time (which is why you don't miss a Dunn at-bat, and why he is a lightning rod IMHO); now whether he does it or not is another story.

Dunn is a great player, don't kid yourself. He's on his way to being a hall of famer. Paint whatever picture you want, there isn't close to 25 other guys in the league that can do what he can do.

Now if by "Superstar" you mean flawless, like just a few other players (maybe 1 to 5 in MLB) then I'll admit he isn't flawless or a superstar if that is how you define it.

The bottom line, we barely hit now. Without Dunn we'd score even fewer runs, by a long shot. Now how would that be? There is NO ONE close to his production available. If you want to win; and if Castelini wants to win, Dunn is back for several more years through his prime. It's common sense. It is an easy call.

How do you know that the Reds will score less runs without Dunn? It depends on who replaces him, and what the team around him is like. If Votto and Bruce reach their potential, Dunn, as a left handed power hitter, is less valuable, as he will be just another lefty power bat, and probably the least productive of the three. If Bruce and Votto fill his LH power slot, way not use Dunn's position to fill another need, like a RH bat, or maybe even a leadoff hitter.

And there is someone exactly as productive as Dunn, but RH, that is available, Pat Burrell. Not saying the Reds should sign Burrell instead of Dunn, but his run production is almost identical to Dunn's.

I am not saying that the Reds are better off without Dunn, but just that it is not as clear cut as you make it.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:38 PM
How do you know that the Reds will score less runs without Dunn? It depends on who replaces him, and what the team around him is like. If Votto and Bruce reach their potential, Dunn, as a left handed power hitter, is less valuable, as he will be just another lefty power bat, and probably the least productive of the three. If Bruce and Votto fill his LH power slot, way not use Dunn's position to fill another need, like a RH bat, or maybe even a leadoff hitter.

And there is someone exactly as productive as Dunn, but RH, that is available, Pat Burrell. Not saying the Reds should sign Burrell instead of Dunn, but his run production is almost identical to Dunn's.

I am not saying that the Reds are better off without Dunn, but just that it is not as clear cut as you make it.

Jury is out on Jay Bruce. I hope you're right. But even at full potential, Joey Votto will (for various reasons) never be as productive as Adam Dunn. You wait and see. Votto could settle in and be a nice offensive player, but he'll come nowhere close to what Dunn has produced and over the time span that he's done it.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:41 PM
How do you know that the Reds will score less runs without Dunn? It depends on who replaces him, and what the team around him is like. If Votto and Bruce reach their potential, Dunn, as a left handed power hitter, is less valuable, as he will be just another lefty power bat, and probably the least productive of the three. If Bruce and Votto fill his LH power slot, way not use Dunn's position to fill another need, like a RH bat, or maybe even a leadoff hitter.

And there is someone exactly as productive as Dunn, but RH, that is available, Pat Burrell. Not saying the Reds should sign Burrell instead of Dunn, but his run production is almost identical to Dunn's.

I am not saying that the Reds are better off without Dunn, but just that it is not as clear cut as you make it.

Pat Burrell is not as productive as Dunn.

Burrell has never hit 40 home runs in a season, let alone 4 years in a row. He's never even hit 35.

He's driven in 100 runs only twice.

His batting average over his career is only 10 points higher than adam's. He's also only walked over 100 times once in his career.

Dunn has stolen 55 bases in his career. Burrell has stolen 5, and hasn't stolen a bag or even attempted to in 4 seasons.

He also hasn't been as durable as Dunn. He's never played in 150 games in back to back seasons.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/burrepa01.shtml

This was a poor example.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 05:50 PM
Dude, Pat Burrell is not coming to Cincinnati. I hope not anyway...

If this team were to ever let Dunn Walk and then go pay Burrell 60 Million over 4 years... Oh my would that suck.

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 05:54 PM
Dude, Pat Burrell is not coming to Cincinnati. I hope not anyway...

If this team were to ever let Dunn Walk and then go pay Burrell 60 Million over 4 years... Oh my would that suck.

That's what I was just thinking? How can fans really justify not paying dunn but then going to get Burrell?

If Burrell is worthy; Dunn is more than so.

BLEEDS
05-23-2008, 05:59 PM
because of the market, he will get at minimum the contract that you listed, 4/$66M. It is not that he is not worth it, but that the Reds could spend that money more wisely, and being a mid market team, they need to.

That's the biggest fallacy on the board. This is NOT your father's (Carl Lindner's) Reds. See who the new owner is; and since WHEN exactly have the Reds "spent money more wisely" ?!?!?


Why not move EE to left, sign or trade for a mid range strong defensive 3B who can probably be had for mid range prospects and a $5M salary, then use the left over $10M or so to try to fill in the other gaps with real MLB starters?


This is your real answer. Move guys around, depleting other areas of offense to "make up" for Dunn with 2/3/4 other guys having "career years". That's what we did with the Pitching Staff this year - HOPE AND PRAY. Remember the PUNDITS who proclaimed Belisle would be a SOLID #3 starter, and some thought even better than Arroyo?!?!? And Homer Bailey would be the #4?!?!? You can't expect young guys and "never have beens" to suddenly ALL align with the stars and outperform their career numbers or go from AAA/AA to MLB with full success.

$5M Defensive 3rd Basemen?!?!? WHere? And then, you've just lost 15+ HR's from 3rd base, while "replacing" Dunns 40/100/100/100 with EE's 25/75/75/40.

I say, why not KEEP YOUR GUYS AT THEIR POSITIONS and let them IMPROVE - and ALSO keep a 40/100/100/100 guy in LF?!?! $15-$18M for 4 years won't "Decimate" the Poor Small Market Reds. Having LOSING TEAMS will - look at the attendance!!! Start winning, and you can afford $85M-90M+ payrolls in Cincinnati. GUARANTEED!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
05-23-2008, 06:04 PM
I say, why not KEEP YOUR GUYS AT THEIR POSITIONS and let them IMPROVE - and ALSO keep a 40/100/100/100 guy in LF?!?! $15-$18M for 4 years won't "Decimate" the Poor Small Market Reds. Having LOSING TEAMS will - look at the attendance!!! Start winning, and you can afford $85M-90M+ payrolls in Cincinnati. GUARANTEED!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

It's a novel concept I think

757690
05-23-2008, 06:36 PM
That's what I was just thinking? How can fans really justify not paying dunn but then going to get Burrell?

If Burrell is worthy; Dunn is more than so.

I actually said that I don't want Burrell instead of Dunn, just that they are similar in terms of production.

Here are their numbers for the last four years

Burrell



Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2004 27 PHI NL 127 448 66 115 17 0 24 84 2 0 78 130 .257 .365 .455 107 204 0 6 7 2 10
2005 28 PHI NL 154 562 78 158 27 1 32 117 0 0 99 160 .281 .389 .504 128 283 0 5 6 3 12
2006 29 PHI NL 144 462 80 119 24 1 29 95 0 0 98 131 .258 .388 .502 122 232 0 4 5 3 11
2007 30 PHI NL 155 472 77 121 26 0 30 97 0 0 114 120 .256 .400 .502 127 237 0 8 1 4 10
2008 31 PHI NL 48 156 27 43 12 0 11 33 0 0 39 39 .276 .416 .564 150 88 0 2 2 0 2

Dunn



Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2004 24 CIN NL 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 6 1 108 195 .266 .388 .569 146 323 0 0 11 5 8
2005 25 CIN NL 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 4 2 114 168 .247 .387 .540 141 293 0 2 14 12 6
2006 26 CIN NL 160 561 99 131 24 0 40 92 7 0 112 194 .234 .365 .490 114 275 1 3 12 6 8
2007 27 CIN NL 152 522 101 138 27 2 40 106 9 2 101 165 .264 .386 .554 136 289 0 4 8 5 12
2008 28 CIN NL 45 143 24 35 5 0 11 29 1 0 34 38 .245 .387 .510 130 73 0 3 0 1 2

Very similar RBI's and OPS numbers. Dunn does score more runs, but that usually has little to do with the batter himself. Dunn is a little better, but Burrell has very close replacement value to Dunn. Plug either into an offense and you would have similar production. Your quote was that there was no one available to replace Dunn's production, "not even close". I think Burrell is more than close. (I would still rather have Dunn, however.)

Hondo
05-23-2008, 06:39 PM
Dunn is 3 years younger. Forget about it...

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 07:17 PM
Dunn has to be traded or he has to walk at the end of the year for this team to move forward. If I am Walt Jocketty I am on the horn with Pittsburgh trying to get Xavier Nady and Andrew "Dookie" McCutchen and would place Nady in right, McCutchen in center leading off, and Bruce in left and your set in the outfield for years to come. Let Dunn walk or trade him, pay Griffey his buy out and acquire these two players and call up Bruce and you have improved the offense and the defense and have gotten younger and cheaper.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 07:31 PM
The only guy I would want from Pittsburgh is Jason Bay

OUReds
05-23-2008, 07:38 PM
Dunn has to be traded or he has to walk at the end of the year for this team to move forward. If I am Walt Jocketty I am on the horn with Pittsburgh trying to get Xavier Nady and Andrew "Dookie" McCutchen and would place Nady in right, McCutchen in center leading off, and Bruce in left and your set in the outfield for years to come. Let Dunn walk or trade him, pay Griffey his buy out and acquire these two players and call up Bruce and you have improved the offense and the defense and have gotten younger and cheaper.

Of course, because the 22-25 Pirates are bound to be dying to rent Dunn for half a year.

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 07:40 PM
Of course, because the 22-25 Pirates are bound to be dying to rent Dunn for half a year.

I didnt say trade Dunn to the Pirates. I personally think the Reds will have a hard time getting much for Dunn. I think I would start with Bailey, Roenike, and Stubbs.

BLEEDS
05-23-2008, 07:42 PM
I actually said that I don't want Burrell instead of Dunn, just that they are similar in terms of production.

Here are their numbers for the last four years

Burrell



Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2004 27 PHI NL 127 448 66 115 17 0 24 84 2 0 78 130 .257 .365 .455 107 204 0 6 7 2 10
2005 28 PHI NL 154 562 78 158 27 1 32 117 0 0 99 160 .281 .389 .504 128 283 0 5 6 3 12
2006 29 PHI NL 144 462 80 119 24 1 29 95 0 0 98 131 .258 .388 .502 122 232 0 4 5 3 11
2007 30 PHI NL 155 472 77 121 26 0 30 97 0 0 114 120 .256 .400 .502 127 237 0 8 1 4 10
2008 31 PHI NL 48 156 27 43 12 0 11 33 0 0 39 39 .276 .416 .564 150 88 0 2 2 0 2

Dunn



Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP GDP
+--------------+---+----+----+----+---+--+---+----+---+--+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+
2004 24 CIN NL 161 568 105 151 34 0 46 102 6 1 108 195 .266 .388 .569 146 323 0 0 11 5 8
2005 25 CIN NL 160 543 107 134 35 2 40 101 4 2 114 168 .247 .387 .540 141 293 0 2 14 12 6
2006 26 CIN NL 160 561 99 131 24 0 40 92 7 0 112 194 .234 .365 .490 114 275 1 3 12 6 8
2007 27 CIN NL 152 522 101 138 27 2 40 106 9 2 101 165 .264 .386 .554 136 289 0 4 8 5 12
2008 28 CIN NL 45 143 24 35 5 0 11 29 1 0 34 38 .245 .387 .510 130 73 0 3 0 1 2

Very similar RBI's and OPS numbers. Dunn does score more runs, but that usually has little to do with the batter himself. Dunn is a little better, but Burrell has very close replacement value to Dunn. Plug either into an offense and you would have similar production. Your quote was that there was no one available to replace Dunn's production, "not even close". I think Burrell is more than close. (I would still rather have Dunn, however.)

Not sure who taught you how to analyze statistics, but "very similar" is not what I would use. OPS similar?!?!? PFFT!!! Burrell had ONE year above .900 OPS, whereas Dunn has one UNDER. Even with his HORRIBLE year right now, Dunn's OPS is better than every one of Burrell's full years aside from 2007. Look at the OPS+, and if you think the 120's is comparable to the high 130's and 140's, then you've got some homework to do. The Total Bases isn't even close.

"Dunn scores more runs, but that usually has little to do with the batter"?!?!? OH, but RBI's has MORE to do with the batter?!??! Next you're going to tell me our offense was more prolific than Philadelphia's over the past few years. MAYBE, just MAYBE Dunn gets more runs because - oh, I don't know - HE GETS MORE TOTAL BASES?!?!?! I guess that doesn't equal production however.

I think you just proved our point for us. Thanks!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
05-23-2008, 07:46 PM
The only guy I would want from Pittsburgh is Jason Bay

Unfortunately Jason Bay seems to have had his stats fall off the face of the planet at/near about the same time A LOT of other people (who's names have been showing up in reports with the words BALCO and/or Mitchell in them) have seemed to have the same phenomenom occur. I'd stay away.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

OUReds
05-23-2008, 07:47 PM
Ahh of course, let Dunn walk and aquire two average outfielders. Exciting.

Edit: that's not being fair, McCutchen has a chance to be a fine center fielder, though on the extremely slim chance Pittsburgh would deal him, the offense would look better as Dunn, McCutchen, Bruce. Aquiring a centerfielder doesn't really have anything at all to do with keeping Dunn.

BLEEDS
05-23-2008, 07:53 PM
Ahh of course, let Dunn walk and aquire two average outfielders. Exciting.

DUH!!! You KNOW that Dunn can EASILY be replaced with 2 people - maybe 3 TOPS - why would we keep ONE person to do 2-3 people's jobs!!

If you add up Hopper, Freel, and Patterson, they all have more Stolen Bases than Josh Hamilton!!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Hondo
05-23-2008, 07:56 PM
Ahh of course, let Dunn walk and aquire two average outfielders. Exciting.

Edit: that's not being fair, McCutchen has a chance to be a fine center fielder

Atleast they would be better than "below" average >>>> Corey Patterson...

I am in no way want to aquire Nady or Dookie

OUReds
05-23-2008, 08:04 PM
If you add up Hopper, Freel, and Patterson, they all have more Stolen Bases than Josh Hamilton!!

Dude, you might be on to something. Why didn't we just trade Hopper, Freel, and Patterson for Volquez?! We really missed the boat there!

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 08:28 PM
Nady is a fine player, a guy who in GABP would hit 25 home runs and probably close to 95 rbi. Dookie McCutchen is fast and is a lead off hitter and a good center fielder. Bruce and Nady would more than compensate for the offense that an overrated Dunn and an aging Griffey.

BLEEDS
05-23-2008, 08:53 PM
Nady? NADY?!?! That guy can't stay healthy to save his life. OH, what's that you say? He's hitting .324 in 2008 (almost .50 points over his career mark)? Time to pick him up!!

In FANTASY Baseball, not in REAL MLB for a LTC with the Reds. There's a REASON he plays in Pittsburgh - HE'S NOT THAT GOOD!!!

Don't know McCutchen, but I bet he's a sure thing to jump from AAA Pirates Organization to the Reds MLB team and be the next Andrew Jones.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 08:59 PM
Nady? NADY?!?! That guy can't stay healthy to save his life. OH, what's that you say? He's hitting .324 in 2008 (almost .50 points over his career mark)? Time to pick him up!!

In FANTASY Baseball, not in REAL MLB for a LTC with the Reds. There's a REASON he plays in Pittsburgh - HE'S NOT THAT GOOD!!!

Don't know McCutchen, but I bet he's a sure thing to jump from AAA Pirates Organization to the Reds MLB team and be the next Andrew Jones.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Nady is on the upswing and is entering his prime at 29. McCutchen is 21 and has some pop and is very fast and gets on base at a .361 clip and has been young at every level. I have watched him this season a few times and he is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. What the Reds have been doing for past few years is not working so lets try something else.

I have a better idea...... lets resign Dunn to a LTC and keep playing softball and contend for last place for the next 4 or 5 years.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 09:09 PM
Nady is on the upswing and is entering his prime at 29. McCutchen is 21 and has some pop and is very fast and gets on base at a .361 clip and has been young at every level. I have watched him this season a few times and he is quickly becoming one of my favorite players. What the Reds have been doing for past few years is not working so lets try something else.

I have a better idea...... lets resign Dunn to a LTC and keep playing softball and contend for last place for the next 4 or 5 years.

Let me say this again, aquiring McCutchen has nothing to do with keeping Dunn, unless Adam stole his girlfriend. It's also likely impossible, but I digress.

What you are proposing, then is to replace Adam Dunn with Xavier Nady, with your sole justification being he is entering his prime, while overlooking the fact that Dunn is in fact one year younger then him and a significantly better offensive player. This is how you would have the Reds "move forward".

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 09:14 PM
Let me say this again, aquiring McCutchen has nothing to do with keeping Dunn, unless Adam stole his girlfriend. It's also likely impossible, but I digress.

What you are proposing, then is to replace Adam Dunn with Xavier Nady, with your sole justification being he is entering his prime, while overlooking the fact that Dunn is in fact one year younger then him and a significantly better offensive player. This is how you would have the Reds "move forward".

Nady is also cheaper and right handed and better defensively. Dunn is not worth 15+ million a year in a small market.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 09:22 PM
Nady is also cheaper and right handed and better defensively. Dunn is not worth 15+ million a year in a small market.

Yes, players who are first year arbitration eligible tend to be cheaper. He will be (relatively) overpriced soon enough.

The ENTIRE POINT of my post is that we have reached the point where, if we actually want to win, payflex is less important then actual production. Given the potential window to compete in the next 1-4 years, how would that 15 million be better spent to make the team better in that time frame?

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 09:30 PM
np

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 09:31 PM
Yes, players who are first year arbitration eligible tend to be cheaper. He will be (relatively) overpriced soon enough.

The ENTIRE POINT of my post is that we have reached the point where, if we actually want to win, payflex is less important then actual production. Given the potential window to compete in the next 1-4 years, how would that 15 million be better spent to make the team better in that time frame?

I think payflex is more important than actual production. If the Reds are going to win anytime soon then Dunn has to a complimentary piece not the building block and why in the world would a small market team pay 15+ million for a complementary piece? I think that to be competitive the Reds cant overpay for anyone, they must get maximum value for every dollar they spend.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 09:38 PM
There are times when payflex is more valuable, sure, but the point of the baseball is to have the most wins, not have the best ratio of wins/dollars spent. Do you not think we have a realistic chance of competing in the next 1-4 years?

If you don't, then trade Dunn and Harang and tear it all down. If you do, how in concrete terms does Dunn's 15 million dollars/year help us win as opposed to having Dunn himself?

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 09:44 PM
There are times when payflex is more valuable, sure, but the point of the baseball is to have the most wins, not have the best ratio of wins/dollars spent. Do you not think we have a realistic chance of competing in the next 1-4 years?

If you don't, then trade Dunn and Harang and tear it all down. If you do, how in concrete terms does Dunn's 15 million dollars/year help us win as opposed to having Dunn himself?

With Big Bob at the helm I dont think we will compete for a few years unless we get a few fluke years from some also runs. If I ran the team I would have traded Dunn 4 years ago when he was underpaid and overvalued. I would look at dealing Harang at the Deadline this season if we would get 3 major league ready prospects. Would you deal Harang for a package that included a Phil Hughes type pitcher and a high ceiling catcher? I would seriously think about it.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 09:48 PM
With Big Bob at the helm I dont think we will compete for a few years unless we get a few fluke years from some also runs. If I ran the team I would have traded Dunn 4 years ago when he was underpaid and overvalued. I would look at dealing Harang at the Deadline this season if we would get 3 major league ready prospects. Would you deal Harang for a package that included a Phil Hughes type pitcher and a high ceiling catcher? I would seriously think about it.

No, because I think we have the young nucleus to compete in the next few years. No more projects.

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 09:54 PM
No, because I think have the young nucleus to compete in the next few years. No more projects.

Lets agree to disagree, I dont think the Reds have the ablility to overpay for anyone. I dont think the Reds are close to competing, I think they need in no particular order an upgrade at catcher, center field, right field, two starting pitching spots, 2 bullpen spots, a complete overhaul of the bench, and a total upgrade across the board on defense. This team is not 2 players away from competing its closer to 8 or 10 players away from competing.

OUReds
05-23-2008, 10:01 PM
Sure, but as far as a time to "go for it", there will never be a better opportunity. Bruce, Votto, EE, Kep, Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Phillips, Bray, Burton are all under our control cheaply for the next 3-4 years. Like all small market teams, there are holes, but I simply don't think anything will be better in a few years time when half these kids are ready to bolt, or at least deep in arbitration.

The time to win is now...errr at least next season :)

redsfanmia
05-23-2008, 10:08 PM
Sure, but as far as a time to "go for it", there will never be a better opportunity. Bruce, Votto, EE, Kep, Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Phillips, Bray, Burton are all under our control cheaply for the next 3-4 years. Like all small market teams, there are holes, but I simply don't think anything will be better in a few years time when half these kids are ready to bolt, or at least deep in arbitration.

The time to win is now...errr at least next season :)

But why "go for it" when your team is not built to "go for it" ? I think the team should go young and felt they should have blown it up a few years ago. Even the year of the "fire sale" they never really tore it all the way down, the Reds are afraid to do so. Why keep Griffey around for so long? Why didnt they trade Dave Weathers last year at he deadline? Why is Hatteberg still around? He had value during the off-season how much does he have now? The Reds hold on to guys way to long, its better to trade a guy a year early than a year late.

PTI (pti)
05-23-2008, 10:12 PM
Why not overpay ________?



Because the Reds are a small market team, and they should act like it. Build from within, take advantage of younger, underpaid players, and stay away from huge contracts.


(note: my opinion excludes a-rod/pujols......and that's about it)

OUReds
05-23-2008, 10:19 PM
The team is young, especially if you assume Bruce is ticketed to replace Griffey.

IF
Votto - 24
Phillips - 26
Janish - 25
EE - 25

OF
Dunn - 28
Patterson - 28
Bruce - 22

SP
Volquez - 24
Cueto - 22
Harang - 30

even Arroyo is only 31

I don't know how much younger you can get and still expect to be competitive.

Hondo
05-23-2008, 10:39 PM
The team is young, especially if you assume Bruce is ticketed to replace Griffey.

IF
Votto - 24
Phillips - 26
Janish - 25
EE - 25

OF
Dunn - 28
Patterson - 28
Bruce - 22

SP
Volquez - 24
Cueto - 22
Harang - 30

even Arroyo is only 31

I don't know how much younger you can get and still expect to be competitive.

Did you just put Patterson in as the Reds Long Term CF????????????>

:thumbdown

OUReds
05-23-2008, 10:44 PM
Did you just put Patterson in as the Reds Long Term CF????????????>

:thumbdown

HAHAHAHA

perhaps I should have put a disclaimer that my list of ages does not constitute an endorsement.

757690
05-24-2008, 12:06 AM
Not sure who taught you how to analyze statistics, but "very similar" is not what I would use. OPS similar?!?!? PFFT!!! Burrell had ONE year above .900 OPS, whereas Dunn has one UNDER. Even with his HORRIBLE year right now, Dunn's OPS is better than every one of Burrell's full years aside from 2007. Look at the OPS+, and if you think the 120's is comparable to the high 130's and 140's, then you've got some homework to do. The Total Bases isn't even close.

"Dunn scores more runs, but that usually has little to do with the batter"?!?!? OH, but RBI's has MORE to do with the batter?!??! Next you're going to tell me our offense was more prolific than Philadelphia's over the past few years. MAYBE, just MAYBE Dunn gets more runs because - oh, I don't know - HE GETS MORE TOTAL BASES?!?!?! I guess that doesn't equal production however.

I think you just proved our point for us. Thanks!

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Again, let me type this slowly so you can understand what I said. I would rather have Dunn, but the claim that there is no one close to Dunn's production value available is false. While Burrell is not as productive as Dunn, he is very close. They both are very productive, Dunn is better, but both add very similar run production to a team. Their OPS avg over the last four years is around 13 points different. A clear difference, but not enough to put one in a different class than the other.

I don't know, maybe if I type it again in all caps you will be able to understand it. ;)

Nuxhall41
05-24-2008, 12:27 AM
I know our fundamentals and baserunning are bad, but I've never seen that before. Hairston stepped out of the box and the umpire called time... yet Dunn still took off and was caught in a rundown. :beerme:

This team certainly puts on a good show.

757690
05-24-2008, 05:53 AM
I agree with OUReds that the time is now, and this is the best opportunity to make a run for a championship. Heck, I still think this team is good enough now to win 90 games this season, if the right moves are made.

Forget the record right now, just look at the talent. This team is the most talented Reds team in close to ten years. Volquez is not only in contention for CY Young, but is having a season similar to Bob Gibson circa 1968 and Dwight Gooden 1985. Votto is in contention for rookie of the year, Phillips is an MVP candidate, EE is finally coming into his own, Harang is putting the same #'s he always puts up, and while we like to complain about the bullpen, it is one of the best in the leagues, just compare it to other teams. I know this isn't fair, but take Fogg out of the Reds stats, and the pitching staff is ranked #6 in the league in ERA. And the Reds have Bruce and Bailey in the minors right now, the #1 and #9 ranked prospects in all the majors at the beginning of the year.

Just a few years ago, Freel was considered by many to be the Reds most valuable player, and Jimmy Haynes the best pitcher. Rich Aurilla and Joe Randa were the cleanup hitters. Paul Wilson was considered a savior because he could pitch to the 6th inning and only allow 4 runs a game, and any reliever who had a 4.50 ERA was considered as closer material. The Reds are miles ahead of where they were just a few years ago.

My only question is whether or not Dunn is the guy I want the Reds to "go for it" with. Maybe he is the best they can do given the current circumstances, but regardless, they should be thinking about going all in right now, they may not have a better chance in a while.

Nasty_Boy
05-24-2008, 11:52 AM
I'm sorry but Brandon Phillips is NOT a MVP candidate!

BLEEDS
05-24-2008, 12:02 PM
If I hear/see the words "small market" one more time...

:thumbdown:thumbdown:angry::angry::bang::bang:
:bash::bash::duel::duel::all_cohol:all_cohol

we're only a small market team because we're putting an inferior product on the field. How come nobody called us a small market in the 90's?!?!

We CAN support a payroll in the middle tier. We're already in the upper half of MLB in payroll, so this is a HUGE fallacy. There's not more than 15 (at the most) teams in MLB with a bigger Payroll than ours.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ghosts of 1990
05-24-2008, 12:04 PM
I agree with OUReds that the time is now, and this is the best opportunity to make a run for a championship. Heck, I still think this team is good enough now to win 90 games this season, if the right moves are made.

Forget the record right now, just look at the talent. This team is the most talented Reds team in close to ten years. Volquez is not only in contention for CY Young, but is having a season similar to Bob Gibson circa 1968 and Dwight Gooden 1985. Votto is in contention for rookie of the year, Phillips is an MVP candidate, EE is finally coming into his own, Harang is putting the same #'s he always puts up, and while we like to complain about the bullpen, it is one of the best in the leagues, just compare it to other teams. I know this isn't fair, but take Fogg out of the Reds stats, and the pitching staff is ranked #6 in the league in ERA. And the Reds have Bruce and Bailey in the minors right now, the #1 and #9 ranked prospects in all the majors at the beginning of the year.

Just a few years ago, Freel was considered by many to be the Reds most valuable player, and Jimmy Haynes the best pitcher. Rich Aurilla and Joe Randa were the cleanup hitters. Paul Wilson was considered a savior because he could pitch to the 6th inning and only allow 4 runs a game, and any reliever who had a 4.50 ERA was considered as closer material. The Reds are miles ahead of where they were just a few years ago.

My only question is whether or not Dunn is the guy I want the Reds to "go for it" with. Maybe he is the best they can do given the current circumstances, but regardless, they should be thinking about going all in right now, they may not have a better chance in a while.

Wow, where do I start?

Phillips: Not even CLOSE to an MVP candidate. He's not even an MVP of this team man.

Volquez: I'll give you he's on a roll. Lets start talking about Bob Gibson and Dwight Gooden seasons the other side of the AS break.

Bullpen: Best in the league? They're terrible again. Outside of Cordero, who in this bullpen is even consistent?

Harang: Puts up the numbers he always puts up? He's 2-6. His ERA is 3.50 which is ok; but hardly has pitched like an ace. If it weren't for Volquez being unreal, we'd be all over Harang. Volquez is the ace, Harang looks the part of an innings eating #2. He'd have to go 14-0 the rest of the season to match what he did last year.

Edwin Encarnacion: Coming into his own? He's hitting .250 and is now losing at-bats to Freel at the 3B spot. The same batting average that people rip Adam Dunn for over the course of his career. He hasn't came into his own, he looks like the same player to me.

Votto as rookie of the year: Won't happen. He's been awful the past 2 weeks. Have you watched his at bats? He's getting fooled by fastballs down the middle and I'm surprised he hasn't lost any at-bats in favor of Hatteberg.


I don't know what team you're watching to make a post like that.

Maldez
05-24-2008, 01:40 PM
I think what sets most people off on Dunn, at least me, is how bad he looks when he's in a slump. Every player from Babe Ruth to A-Rod goes through slumps, but there's something about an Adam Dunn slump that makes you feel he'll never lay lumber on a ball again. He just looks LOST when he's not going good and it makes me want him off this team!

Then, inevitably, he breaks out of the slump and does what he's doing now: Winning ball games with his power and generally looking like the star he's supposed to look like.

Now I find myself kinda wanting to see this big ox signed-up for another 10 years. Two weeks from now I'll want him traded for a used pair of cleats.

I hope Walt Jocketty knows what to do with Dunn because I sure don't !

Hondo
05-24-2008, 02:00 PM
It is clear they need to resign Dunn... This guy is going to be the "Name" player when Griffey leaves... Home Grown? Doesn't that mean anything anymore? The Reds Drafted, signed, groomed this guy, and I would like him to go down like a Gerorge Brett with the Reds... 1 Team.

If Walt can just add some Protection, some Right Handed Power Hitter... I think Dunn's numbers will get significantly better... I also see him hitting.300+ in the future.

Ghosts of 1990
05-24-2008, 02:31 PM
I think what sets most people off on Dunn, at least me, is how bad he looks when he's in a slump. Every player from Babe Ruth to A-Rod goes through slumps, but there's something about an Adam Dunn slump that makes you feel he'll never lay lumber on a ball again. He just looks LOST when he's not going good and it makes me want him off this team!

Then, inevitably, he breaks out of the slump and does what he's doing now: Winning ball games with his power and generally looking like the star he's supposed to look like.

Now I find myself kinda wanting to see this big ox signed-up for another 10 years. Two weeks from now I'll want him traded for a used pair of cleats.

I hope Walt Jocketty knows what to do with Dunn because I sure don't !


It's been peaks and valleys with Dunn since he became a big leaguer. From studying him hard and watching him you can see this. When he hits a home run, they'll usually follow in bunches (4-6 in a week is possible/likely). When he's struggling he might go 2 or 3 weeks with no homers or 1. It's like clockwork every time when he's hot or he's slumping. Right now he's really really hot.

redsfanmia
05-24-2008, 03:29 PM
It is clear they need to resign Dunn... This guy is going to be the "Name" player when Griffey leaves... Home Grown? Doesn't that mean anything anymore? The Reds Drafted, signed, groomed this guy, and I would like him to go down like a Gerorge Brett with the Reds... 1 Team.

If Walt can just add some Protection, some Right Handed Power Hitter... I think Dunn's numbers will get significantly better... I also see him hitting.300+ in the future.

Dunn hitting .300+ in the majors? The Reds have a "name" when Griff leaves its Jay Bruce and the Reds have just had their "George Brett" his name was Barry Larkin.

Ghosts of 1990
05-24-2008, 03:45 PM
Dunn hitting .300+ in the majors? The Reds have a "name" when Griff leaves its Jay Bruce and the Reds have just had their "George Brett" his name was Barry Larkin.

Larkin is not a HOF; so to say he's George Brett is a stretch even though I LOVED Larkin. Top 3 all time fav reds.

And even if he is our George Brett it would be nice to see us keep one of our home grown's long enough to call it another george brett.

757690
05-24-2008, 04:34 PM
Wow, where do I start?

Phillips: Not even CLOSE to an MVP candidate. He's not even an MVP of this team man.

"MVP Candidate" is not the same as "he should be MVP". He was an MVP candidate last year, finished 22, and is having a better year this year. He is on pace to go 30/30 again, and will probably win the Gold Glove at a very important defensive position. An .844 OPS as a 2B is definitely an MVP candidate. And he is the MVP of this team, at least in terms of position players, since the only competition he has, Dunn, deserves an iron glove award.


Volquez: I'll give you he's on a roll. Lets start talking about Bob Gibson and Dwight Gooden seasons the other side of the AS break.

Regardless of what he does after the break, my only points in the post were about how the team was doing now. And he is not "on a roll." He is dominating the opposition, in every game that he pitches.


Bullpen: Best in the league? They're terrible again. Outside of Cordero, who in this bullpen is even consistent?

Again, my words were "one of the best". Anyway they are close to the best. The Reds bullpen has a 2.78 ERA and holds the opponent to a .650 OPS in save situations. Only the Phillies and Mets have better results in save situations, so if you consider how well a bullpen holds a close lead important, then the Reds are the third best in the league.



Harang: Puts up the numbers he always puts up? He's 2-6. His ERA is 3.50 which is ok; but hardly has pitched like an ace.
If it weren't for Volquez being unreal, we'd be all over Harang.
Volquez is the ace, Harang looks the part of an innings eating #2. He'd have to go 14-0 the rest of the season to match what he did last year.

Do I even have to respond to any statement that considers a pitchers W-L record? All his other #'s are the same. He is getting horrible run support.


Edwin Encarnacion: Coming into his own? He's hitting .250 and is now losing at-bats to Freel at the 3B spot.
The same batting average that people rip Adam Dunn for over the course of his career. He hasn't came into his own, he looks like the same player to me.

He was sick yesterday so Freel took his spot. He has not lost his spot. And he is on pace to hit 25 HR, which was the only area where he really needed to improve. He put up good #'s before, but with little power. Now he has added power to his game.


Votto as rookie of the year: Won't happen. He's been awful the past 2 weeks. Have you watched his at bats?
He's getting fooled by fastballs down the middle and I'm surprised he hasn't lost any at-bats in favor of Hatteberg.


Ok Debbie Downer, nice reach. Outside of the two Japanese imports, G. Soto of the Cubs is Votto's only competition for ROY. Clearly, with an .840 OPS, Votto is one of the top Rookies in the NL this year, which is what I said, "in contention".

redsfanmia
05-24-2008, 07:46 PM
Larkin is not a HOF; so to say he's George Brett is a stretch even though I LOVED Larkin. Top 3 all time fav reds.

And even if he is our George Brett it would be nice to see us keep one of our home grown's long enough to call it another george brett.

Larkin is a HOF probably first ballot. Bill James has him ranked as one of the 8 best short stops in the history of the game. Larkin won an MVP, 9 silver slugger awards, 3 gold gloves (should have been more but Ozzie Smith kept on winning on name alone), was a 12 all-star and won an Olympic gold medal. The guy is a Hall of Famer.

Hondo
05-24-2008, 07:47 PM
Larkin is a HOF probably first ballot. Bill James has him ranked as one of the 8 best short stops in the history of the game. Larkin won an MVP, 9 silver slugger awards, 3 gold gloves (should have been more but Ozzie Smith kept on winning on name alone), was a 12 all-star and won an Olympic gold medal. The guy is a Hall of Famer.

That is about the only thing I agree with you on. Nice Work.

redsfanmia
05-24-2008, 08:08 PM
That is about the only thing I agree with you on. Nice Work.

Hey you like Dunn, Dunn to me is a big disappointment and drives me crazy, we could still hang.