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Cooper
05-23-2008, 04:16 PM
Bailey and Bruce have a whole list of things they have to work on to get their chance at MLB...those standards are higher and harder to reach than the standards players on the current Reds roster have to meet.

Bailey not only has to pitch well -he has to pitch well in certain way. Same with Bruce....he's hitting .350, but it isn't quite the .350 the FO wants.

At this point it's getting silly.

Does the FO ask Josh Fogg or any of the other guys with ERA's over 5.00 to not only pitch better, but to pitch in a required fashion. I don't see all these demands put on them.

Bruce has to not only hit .350 but it's has to be the right .350 and he's got to want to be happy about being in triple A.

If neither one is happy to be in AAA then they are somehow bad employees who need to learn lessons about waiting in line while their "betters" stink up the major league clubhouse. They don't have a right to complain and think they are better than 1 of 25 guys up at the mlb...they need to learn to wait in line and earn tenure. Silly rookies.

This stuff is getting silly. Call them up and lets move on. The FO is giving a bad message to all the guys in the minors -message being "intangibles that change on a daily basis are more important than performance".

That's a bad message to send.

Unassisted
05-23-2008, 04:21 PM
Those goals are mostly a smokescreen. The overriding and unspoken reason they're in Louisvile is that the FO is trying not to call them up so early that they qualify for Super Two status. They aren't going to be the spark plugs that pushes this team into the playoffs, so there's no urgency that justifies making them arbitration-eligible a year sooner.

danforsman
05-23-2008, 04:24 PM
Why does Super Two status matter for Bruce if the FO signs him to a deal earlier in his career (ala Longoria, Braun, etc.)? If they plan on locking him up earlier in his career such that the Super Two consequences are moot, then it seems like the only reason he's not up is due to the manager's decisions related to OF playing time.

Unassisted
05-23-2008, 04:28 PM
If they plan on locking him up earlier in his career such that the Super Two consequences are moot, then it seems like the only reason he's not up is due to the manager's decisions related to OF playing time.I don't know that they do plan on locking him into an LTC. Even though that's currently in vogue, it's not a trend I expect the Reds to emulate.

Cooper
05-23-2008, 04:29 PM
I think a good case could be made that waiting for the Super 2 status cost more than just biting the bullet and bringing them up.

The cost is wins, morale, mixed messages to your best minor leaguers, and even sillier messages to the media.

I really don't think it's about super 2 status-- i believe they are in a perpetual evaluation phase with one foot in the water and one out.

Blow it up Walt!!!

bucksfan2
05-23-2008, 04:35 PM
Those goals are mostly a smokescreen. The overriding and unspoken reason they're in Louisvile is that the FO is trying not to call them up so early that they qualify for Super Two status. They aren't going to be the spark plugs that pushes this team into the playoffs, so there's no urgency that justifies making them arbitration-eligible a year sooner.

Loaded question you have. I don't think those goals are a smokescreen. I think in Bruce's case they are a little worried about is strike outs and are keping them down in AAA to ease him into MLB action. It would have been a lot to have him start out the season on the Reds and struggle like Votto did at the beginning of this year.

As for Bailey I really think he is down in AAA to learn how to "pitch". I think they want him to learn how to develop other pitches. They want his control to be a little better. The difference between Bailey and Fogg is upside and potential. Bailey has the body and arm to be that ace that Fogg wasn't blessed with. Fogg is about as good as he is going to get while Bailey has quite a bit more of upside.

flyer85
05-23-2008, 04:36 PM
Why does Super Two status matter for Bruce if the FO signs him to a deal earlier in his career (ala Longoria, Braun, etc.)? If they plan on locking him up earlier in his career such that the Super Two consequences are moot, then it seems like the only reason he's not up is due to the manager's decisions related to OF playing time.that's the way I see it. Bruce seems as much of a lock for success as one can be.

Unassisted
05-23-2008, 04:39 PM
I think in Bruce's case they are a little worried about is strike outs and are keping them down in AAA to ease him into MLB action. It would have been a lot to have him start out the season on the Reds and struggle like Votto did at the beginning of this year.

As for Bailey I really think he is down in AAA to learn how to "pitch". I think they want him to learn how to develop other pitches. They want his control to be a little better.
All of those performance issues you cite are making the choice easier for the FO. Neither Bruce's nor Bailey's play has been stellar enough to justify ignoring the Super Two issue.

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2008, 04:40 PM
Bailey needs more time in Louisville to work on some things but I'd get Bruce and Roenicke up here on Tuesday.

BCubb2003
05-23-2008, 04:58 PM
I think fans do this too, to some extent. After a player has been scouted for years with every detail of his skill set noted, we figure we can plug a hole by moving him to third, or to left, or sure he can play center until we get a real one.

Cooper
05-23-2008, 05:06 PM
If Bailey needs more time to woork on things then so do about 8 other pitchers on the major league staff. It's as if the bar is set at being a finished product, but in their minds the only way you become a finished product is to have time at the major league level.

The bar they are sitting is silly. We currently have 3 finished products on the pitching staff. As for the position players--many have more faults than Bruce.

They should be trying to build a good team--yet, it appears they just want to win the BA minor organization of the year award.

icehole3
05-23-2008, 05:20 PM
I agree with Coop, Bailey shouldve been the 5th starter day one, let him take his lumps in the Bigs, friggin Tom Glavine lost 21 games his first 2 years and they want these young guys to pitch perfect baseball, it aint gonna happen folks these kids need to learn in the Bigs.

danforsman
05-23-2008, 05:24 PM
It would not surprise me at all if Bailey performed better in the bigs than he currently is performing at AAA Louisville. I'm not condoning his attitude issues, but I wonder if he lacks the maturity to be motivated by his demotion but would thrive with the chip that would be placed on his shoulders upon recall to Cincy to prove that he was legit.

Chip R
05-23-2008, 05:28 PM
that's the way I see it. Bruce seems as much of a lock for success as one can be.


It seems like it but the problem with comparing players like Bruce to actual major leaguers is that the major leaguers have done enough to prove they can hit major league pitching and Jay Bruce has not. It's a Catch-22. Bruce cannot show he can hit MLB pitching until he's in the majors. The woods are full of superstar AAA players who had problems when they made the final step.

PuffyPig
05-23-2008, 05:34 PM
Why does Super Two status matter for Bruce if the FO signs him to a deal earlier in his career (ala Longoria, Braun, etc.)? If they plan on locking him up earlier in his career such that the Super Two consequences are moot, then it seems like the only reason he's not up is due to the manager's decisions related to OF playing time.

The super 2 status will never be moot.

A long term contract is largely based, in part, upon what a player is likley to get in the future. A player who has super 2 status would earn more money faster, so any long term contract he gets will have to be more accordinly.

SMcGavin
05-23-2008, 05:56 PM
The woods are full of superstar AAA players who had problems when they made the final step.

Not at Bruce's age and and his degree of success. There's never a 100% sure thing but Jay Bruce is about as close as you can be.

Bailey is a completely different story. He has not mastered AAA. 4.30 ERA, 4.07 FIP. Right now he and Bruce don't belong in the same conversation.

Chip R
05-23-2008, 06:03 PM
Not at Bruce's age and and his degree of success. There's never a 100% sure thing but Jay Bruce is about as close as you can be.


Exactly. He isn't a 100% sure thing and they would rather go with someone who has actually done something on the big league level than someone who hasn't. It's fear of the unknown.

SMcGavin
05-23-2008, 06:13 PM
Exactly. He isn't a 100% sure thing and they would rather go with someone who has actually done something on the big league level than someone who hasn't. It's fear of the unknown.

He's not 100% to become the All Star we think he'll be, but I do think there's a 100% chance he puts up an OPS better than Corey Patterson's .648. The only reason to keep him down right now is worrying about the Super Two date, so if we don't see Bruce up here when the Reds come back home I'm going to be pretty confused.

Krusty
05-23-2008, 06:29 PM
If Bruce isn't up by the middle of June, I have lost all hope with this organization.

BCubb2003
05-23-2008, 06:32 PM
I think you guys are on the right track, but this sounds so much like last year's discussion about bringing up Bailey that it's eerie.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2008, 10:22 PM
This stuff is getting silly. Call them up and lets move on. The FO is giving a bad message to all the guys in the minors -message being "intangibles that change on a daily basis are more important than performance".

That's a bad message to send.

Better or worse than the "If you piss and moan enough to guys on the Reds beat who come down to do a story, we'll get you up to Cincinnati sooner" message?

And, as for your point about "complete" players -- we're talking about command with Homer and pitch selectivity with Jay Bruce.

If Homer doesn't have command, he's pretty much less than worthless as a big league starter and will be on a fast track to the knife. Walks rack up the pitch counts, lead to high stress innings and high stress deliveries. Walks also tax the bullpen when the starter throws 100+ through 5 and the BP is responsible for finishing the last 4 innings every 5th day. Cutting his walk rate is important to him personally as a player and to the team as a whole.

If Jay Bruce isn't selective at the plate, he becomes an out-machine in the middle of the lineup. If you're projecting Jay Bruce to be a good player, that's fine I guess -- get your .300 BA and .330-.335 OBP and be happy with it. If you want Jay Bruce to be a GREAT player, you'll want him to have an OBP closer to the elite .390-.400 level. I see nothing wrong with holding back a kid as young as him to see if he can refine that skill in the minors. He's only 21 -- there's absolutely no hurry with him. If it prevents him from turning into a hacker with pop, I'm all in favor of keeping him down to help him learn.

Chip R
05-23-2008, 10:54 PM
He's not 100% to become the All Star we think he'll be, but I do think there's a 100% chance he puts up an OPS better than Corey Patterson's .648. The only reason to keep him down right now is worrying about the Super Two date, so if we don't see Bruce up here when the Reds come back home I'm going to be pretty confused.


You don't have to convince me but it's human nature to go with a known quantity over an unknown one. Bruce didn't exactly light the world on fire during ST, remember? If he had had a ST this year like Hamilton had last year, he'd be the CF right now. But he had to set the world on fire to do that and he didn't so that's why they got Patterson. The Reds braintrust doesn't know what Bruce could do once he got up here but they did know that Patterson has had some success against major league pitching and he's a great defensive CF. They didn't figure he'd turn into Rickey Henderson but they probably thought that it was possible he might hit around .300, steal a lot of bags and hit 15-20 HRs The key is that he had done it before so they figured that he was a better bet than someone who hasn't.

Unless Dunn or Jr. are traded, Patterson and Freel go to the bench if Bruce gets the call. That's about $6M sitting on the bench. You might be able to trade Freel but unless Dusty has a twin brother we don't know about managing a different team, Patterson doesn't have any value. You could release Patterson but you still have to pay him. I think the Super 2 is a factor as well but I don't think it's as big a thing as some do. You certainly don't want to call him up just to sit him on the bench.

I get the feeling that if he does get the call people are going to expect him to be Roy Hobbs, Jr. out there or at least Josh Hamilton. He may very well do that but there's a beter chance he starts off slow. And if the team doesn't improve with Bruce in there - no matter how well he performs - what's next? Homer isn't anyone's idea of a savior anymore. Maybe Todd Frazier but where are they going to play him?

Jay Bruce is just a pleasant distraction from the greater problems this team has. Bringing him up isn't going to make Bronson's curves sharper, it isn't going to turn Belisle into a competent starter and it isn't going to turn the bullpen into the Nasty Boys.

Cooper
05-24-2008, 12:01 AM
Let's just wait till Bruce hits .450 -maybe then they'll have absolute certainty he can handle things...he'll be 26 or 27 by that time, but what's hurry? I'd rather him be Ted Williams than Ty Cobb. Plus -That'll allow Cory Patterson to finally get the at-bats he needs to prove he's a .250 hitter.

Caveat: you haven't addressed how long we wait for the MLB regulars to refine their skills?

Caveat Emperor
05-24-2008, 04:23 AM
Caveat: you haven't addressed how long we wait for the MLB regulars to refine their skills?

I didn't address it because it's a silly point.

Homer Bailey and Jay Bruce are "high ceiling" prospects -- everyone and their brother is in agreement they both possess the talent to be the best players at their respective positions. That puts them in an entirely different category than the Josh Foggs and Ryan Freels of the world. Its comparing apples to exclamation points.

I just don't see the point of rushing great prospects. They're your property, and the only way they stop being your property is if their service time starts ticking off at the ML level.

GAC
05-24-2008, 07:37 AM
Two good points Chip....


I get the feeling that if he does get the call people are going to expect him to be Roy Hobbs, Jr. out there or at least Josh Hamilton.

Personally, I'm getting tired of the Josh Hamilton "update" threads. He's gone folks! Get over it! ;)


Jay Bruce is just a pleasant distraction from the greater problems this team has. Bringing him up isn't going to make Bronson's curves sharper, it isn't going to turn Belisle into a competent starter and it isn't going to turn the bullpen into the Nasty Boys.

How many times, over recent years and especially on this forum, have we heard people scream "Get 'so-and-so' up here now! He's the answer who will turn it around."

Anyone care to start the list? ;)

Cooper
05-24-2008, 11:14 AM
Maybe there's a big ticker tape parade when Baseball America votes the Reds organization the best at accumulating "property"?

The parade will be full of all kinds of guys who need to be kept in their place -the type that need a good lesson about talking back to reporters and getting all puffed up by hittin .350. We all know that's just showing off and if that "property" gets puffed up -the Reds FO (the property store?) will remind them that they ain't got no rights until they paid their debts.

Until then--woo-hoo we have more properties!!!!

RedlegJake
05-24-2008, 03:01 PM
Coop your absolutely right about wanting Bruce to be Ted Williams not Ty Cobb. Williams of the greatest batting eye for selectivity known to the game. Williams of the record OBP. Williams of the refined strike zone so exact that umpires adjusted their zones to Ted's eye. Williams of the scientific approach who embraced OBP with slugging as the route to his goal to be the greatest hitter ever. I'd love for Bruce to be like Williams but he has a long way to go for that to happen, and pitch selctivity is the biggest lesson he has yet to learn. That doesn't mean I don't agree that he should be in Cincinnati, just that the player you picked as his hopeful prototype just reinforces the lessons he has yet to master.

HokieRed
05-24-2008, 03:08 PM
Jay Bruce is, in my estimation, in Louisville for one reason and one reason only. We have to play an aging right fielder who is in pursuit of 600 home runs and who is currently the worst #3 hitter in baseball.

mth123
05-24-2008, 04:40 PM
Jay Bruce is, in my estimation, in Louisville for one reason and one reason only. We have to play an aging right fielder who is in pursuit of 600 home runs and who is currently the worst #3 hitter in baseball.

You forgot worst defensive player in baseball too but otherwise this is right on.

membengal
05-24-2008, 05:46 PM
Spot on from Hokie and mth.

There is absolutely no way to look at the Bruce lunancy in terms of him still being in AAA any differently.

Unassisted
05-24-2008, 07:23 PM
What I don't understand is why people are either willfully ignoring the Super Two issue or refusing to accept that it could be a factor.

membengal
05-24-2008, 07:30 PM
Because it is a lame reason to harm this team in the short term, unassisted. I accept it as a factor. I categorically disagree with the Reds if that is what has been driving their abject stupidity.

Evan Longoria has certainly aided the Rays in their run to respectablity this year. No reason Bruce could not have been doing the same in Cincy.

KronoRed
05-24-2008, 08:36 PM
I think it's not only the super 2 factor, the time allows them to give Patterson more time to stink it up, more time to look at deals for Dunn and JR as well.