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View Full Version : Is Homer Bailey The Next Great Reds Bust?



Krusty
05-23-2008, 05:28 PM
Makes you wonder with Bailey getting rocked lately in the minors. His surly attitude has been documented by Hal McCoy, John Fay and Marty B.

So is it too early to consider him a bust? If not, how much time do you give him. And would you consider him a head case along the likes of a Brett Tomko?

Tornon
05-23-2008, 05:29 PM
I would at least let him have another shot in the majors before calling him a bust

Krusty
05-23-2008, 05:31 PM
I would at least let him have another shot in the majors before calling him a bust

If he can't get minor leaguers out, how do you expect him to be back in the big leagues?

IMO, the kid needs an attitude adjustment how he presents himself. I think that number 1 draft status went to his head.

fearofpopvol1
05-23-2008, 05:38 PM
A bust? No. Disappointment based on expectations? Perhaps, but you still have to look at his age. If Homer is at this same spot a few years from now, he is a bust. Look how long it took Volquez to figure it out.

dougdirt
05-23-2008, 05:38 PM
We are about 2 years at a minimum, or at least a shoulder injury from throwing around the word bust and being serious about it. He is 22 years and 3 weeks old. He would be the youngest pitcher in the NL this year if he were here right now.

Tornon
05-23-2008, 05:43 PM
If he can't get minor leaguers out, how do you expect him to be back in the big leagues?



I dunno, with the flashes we saw from him in the bigs last year I'm not ready to give up on him yet. At this point I'm hoping that his minor league problems are mental (and I know that doesn't speak well for Homer), but I think I could see him getting back on track with a call back up to the majors (where it appears he thinks he belongs)

RedsManRick
05-23-2008, 05:53 PM
I'd love to make him somebody else's bust...

OnBaseMachine
05-23-2008, 05:55 PM
At this time last year people were calling Edinson Volquez a bust. One year later he leads the majors in ERA.

Stormy
05-23-2008, 06:16 PM
We are about 2 years at a minimum, or at least a shoulder injury from throwing around the word bust and being serious about it. He is 22 years and 3 weeks old. He would be the youngest pitcher in the NL this year if he were here right now.

Well said. He's certainly had a few setbacks, primarily due to initially overly rapid advancement, a failure to adequately address some mechanical/repetoire based faults, and perhaps some mental resistance to being 'coached up.' However, Bailey still has a very solid chance to completely right the ship, and put himself back on course to make a solid MLB impact within the next 2+ years. I will agree that he has some factors working against him ranging from the excessive potential for breakdowns in his long delivery, to his apparent slowness to adjust his approach (and stubborness).

I would only start to be concerned if we continue to see regression in his control, refinement of his secondary pitches, and overall effectiveness throughout this season. Like Rick, I wouldn't be opposed to including him in a trade package for the right return as soon as he hits his 2008 ML apex.

MikeS21
05-23-2008, 06:33 PM
Perhaps he has a career as a closer?

jojo
05-23-2008, 07:25 PM
At this time last year people were calling Edinson Volquez a bust. One year later he leads the majors in ERA.

And this time next year Volquez could have an ERA of 4.75 and Bailey could have one under 4.00......

IMHO, nobody has busted "out" or "in" yet....

lollipopcurve
05-23-2008, 07:30 PM
Just a few starts ago Chad Moeller and David Ross were raving about Homer.

I happen to think he'd do OK if he were promoted right now, and I'm inclined to think it would be a lot easier for both him and Bruce if they came up together.

redsrule2500
05-23-2008, 08:12 PM
C'mon, he's 22!! I can't see how he's a bust at this young age, but he definitely needs to take some advice and start working for change.

Caveat Emperor
05-23-2008, 09:12 PM
Every indication that you get from the minors indicates that Homer Bailey's worst enemy is Homer Bailey. He's not a bust yet, but it might be time for them to find a pitching coach that he "clicks" with to help him out.

I hear Leo Mazzone is looking for work -- why not drop a lot of cash at his feet, sign him on as a "consultant" and send him to AAA to work with Homer? If you can't sell him on the merits of listening to the guy who built the careers of guys like Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, then he really is a lost cause.

LoganBuck
05-23-2008, 11:41 PM
Every indication that you get from the minors indicates that Homer Bailey's worst enemy is Homer Bailey. He's not a bust yet, but it might be time for them to find a pitching coach that he "clicks" with to help him out.

I hear Leo Mazzone is looking for work -- why not drop a lot of cash at his feet, sign him on as a "consultant" and send him to AAA to work with Homer? If you can't sell him on the merits of listening to the guy who built the careers of guys like Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz, then he really is a lost cause.

Amen

Highlifeman21
05-24-2008, 12:46 AM
I'd love to make him somebody else's bust...

No kidding.

Let someone else develop him.

Let's get some talent that can help us now, as opposed to minor league talent that prefers to read hunting magazines rather than chart pitches when it's his assignment.

Waste of natural talent.

AmarilloRed
05-24-2008, 01:06 AM
I like Bailey, but he needs to do better in Louisville. Jukich and Thompson at AA could both make the Reds ahead of Bailey, and they could end up staying in the Reds rotation. There would be no room for Bailey, and he could end up trade bait.

Danny Serafini
05-24-2008, 01:09 AM
It's way, way, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to call him a bust. He's only 22 for crying out loud. The only reason he looks like a potential bust now is because he got rushed up too early last year. Give the poor guy a chance to develop.

GAC
05-24-2008, 09:07 AM
He's only a bust if we invest huge amounts of money in him, contractually speaking, and we get burned. Until then, we just have to keep working with him and hope he somehow gets it.

KronoRed
05-24-2008, 12:12 PM
I'd love to make him somebody else's bust...

Agreed, right now he still has a lot of "could be superstar" shine on him, with other pitchers starting to do well at other levels I don't think the Reds should make him untouchable.

membengal
05-24-2008, 12:21 PM
Krrusty on Rangerszone in 2005:


Is Ednison Volquez the Next Great Rangers Bust?

KronoRed
05-24-2008, 12:23 PM
If Bailey nets us a Josh Hamilton type then lets move him now ;)

jojo
05-24-2008, 12:33 PM
Is Homer a bust? Nope. Is Homer one of the really special ones? Nope. He's not a "king" or even a "prince" who bust through the barrier young with the promise of long careers of exceptional performance (i.e. a King Felix who despite being called overhyped has been one of the top 10-15 starters in the majors based upon his peripherals or a Prince Cueto who is good enough at his age to be an above average major league pitcher but who still has to learn on the job before being a top teir starter).

Can Homer still be a very good pitcher (even a TOR one)? Yep. It's just becoming apparent that he's probably not going to be one of the guys who looks at the development curve of most mortals and says F you..... (he can still be exceptional but there won't be any short cuts suggesting lots of pitfalls that could still ensnare him and keep him from becoming what we dream he could be).

boognish
05-24-2008, 12:53 PM
Is Homer a bust? Nope. Is Homer one of the really special ones? Nope. He's not a "king" or even a "prince" who bust through the barrier young with the promise of long careers of exceptional performance (i.e. a King Felix who despite being called overhyped has been one of the top 10-15 starters in the majors based upon his peripherals or a Prince Cueto who is good enough at his age to be an above average major league pitcher but who still has to learn on the job before being a top teir starter).

Can Homer still be a very good pitcher (even a TOR one)? Yep. It's just becoming apparent that he's probably not going to be one of the guys who looks at the development curve of most mortals and says F you..... (he can still be exceptional but there won't be any short cuts suggesting lots of pitfalls that could still ensnare him and keep him from becoming what we dream he could be).

This post pretty much says it all. Even if Bailey hiccups the whole year away in AAA, barring injury, his ability/ceiling will remain top shelf. I think if he fails it is an indictment of the Reds' inability to develop him. If you prefer, the terminology "get through to him" can be used.

Whether he needs a wakeup call based on testimonial information is certainly a conversation worth considering, but he remains a significant talent. The ball is in the Reds' player development staff's court. I remain disturbed that the Reds allowed him to scrap his curve and elect for the "slider/cutter" that he is throwing now as his primary breaking pitch; to me, it appears to be a sign that they are not adequately monitoring his development.

Jojo is absolutely correct that there are a number of things that could keep Bailey from accomplishing what Reds fans dream of him accomplishing...and those expectations should probably be tempered. He isn't necessarily a failure if he fails to become one of the most dominant pitchers in the league.

cincrazy
05-24-2008, 12:57 PM
At this time last year people were calling Edinson Volquez a bust. One year later he leads the majors in ERA.

True, but I don't think Homer has nearly the same kind of stuff as Volquez. Some were throwing the groin injury around as an excuse, but that's been behind him for a while now, and his velocity still isn't anywhere close to where it was. And enough time has been spent discussing his secondary pitches to where I don't think I need to say much more about them.

Volquez has an electric fastball and a devastating change. Homer appears to have neither at the time being.

There are some similarities attitude wise. The Rangers sent Volquez to Class A last year with a bunch of ridiculous guidelines to follow. Maybe a wake up call such as that will help Homer? I have no clue. He can still be a quality pitcher, way too early to say otherwise, but I don't think he has the ceiling of a Volquez or Cueto.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 12:59 PM
It's way, way, waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to call him a bust. He's only 22 for crying out loud. The only reason he looks like a potential bust now is because he got rushed up too early last year. Give the poor guy a chance to develop.

Yes he is still young, with the investment that the Reds have in him and other pitchers, I would think that they could afford someone to actually help him in the coaching department to improve and achieve the goals surrounding him.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 01:01 PM
If Bailey nets us a Josh Hamilton type then lets move him now ;)

There is no place to play that kind of a player according to Reds management. :)

dougdirt
05-24-2008, 01:35 PM
True, but I don't think Homer has nearly the same kind of stuff as Volquez. Some were throwing the groin injury around as an excuse, but that's been behind him for a while now, and his velocity still isn't anywhere close to where it was. And enough time has been spent discussing his secondary pitches to where I don't think I need to say much more about them.

Volquez has an electric fastball and a devastating change. Homer appears to have neither at the time being.

There are some similarities attitude wise. The Rangers sent Volquez to Class A last year with a bunch of ridiculous guidelines to follow. Maybe a wake up call such as that will help Homer? I have no clue. He can still be a quality pitcher, way too early to say otherwise, but I don't think he has the ceiling of a Volquez or Cueto.

I keep hearing that Bailey has 'lost his velocity' and its just not true. Homer Bailey used to have 1 fastball. Fast. Now he is throwing a cut fastball more and then his 'fast'ball that still hits 97 MPH. Its not a loss of velocity, its a different pitch that people aren't noticing.

cincrazy
05-24-2008, 02:44 PM
I keep hearing that Bailey has 'lost his velocity' and its just not true. Homer Bailey used to have 1 fastball. Fast. Now he is throwing a cut fastball more and then his 'fast'ball that still hits 97 MPH. Its not a loss of velocity, its a different pitch that people aren't noticing.

I don't know nearly as much about Bailey as you, but from everything I've read for most of the year, his stuff hasn't looked great. The scouts that Mccoy refererenced in his article noted that his fastball is down 3-4 mph, and I don't think Hal would just make that up and put it in his story.

I'm not calling Bailey a failure, he's only 22. But I don't think he's half as good as he thinks he is. Maybe that will end up being a good thing. But, maybe it'll end up being a disaster, with a kid that won't refine his delivery or learn how to throw another quality pitch without the word "fast" in front of it.

dougdirt
05-24-2008, 02:46 PM
I don't know nearly as much about Bailey as you, but from everything I've read for most of the year, his stuff hasn't looked great. The scouts that Mccoy refererenced in his article noted that his fastball is down 3-4 mph, and I don't think Hal would just make that up and put it in his story.
I have seen Bailey hit 97 MPH more than a few times this year. He was never throwing 100-101. Now he used to work closer to 97 than he does now, but he also had no clue where the ball was going. Outside of his last two starts, his control had been quite good this year.

GAC
05-24-2008, 03:54 PM
I just hope he doesn't turn into another highly hyped prospect named Brandon Claussen.

cincrazy
05-24-2008, 03:56 PM
I have seen Bailey hit 97 MPH more than a few times this year. He was never throwing 100-101. Now he used to work closer to 97 than he does now, but he also had no clue where the ball was going. Outside of his last two starts, his control had been quite good this year.

I've been impressed with his control also. I'm just hoping his last two or three starts isn't an indicator of his future starts.

dougdirt
05-24-2008, 04:06 PM
I just hope he doesn't turn into another highly hyped prospect named Brandon Claussen.

Me too.... although Claussen was never close to as highly touted as Bailey and also had a major surgery before coming to the Reds.

Aronchis
05-24-2008, 04:17 PM
Sorry Doug, your wrong. When Bailey throws harder, his command is better.

This is a fact. The "Bailey doesn't know where the ball is going when he throws harder bs, is just that bs. It is the opposite. When he throws with less velocity, his walks go up and he starts giving up "Homer's" in droves

Earlier in the year Bailey was working 93-95 and wasn't getting smacked around nearly as much and his control was much better.

That leaves the simple truth: Homer Bailey is velocity dependent. If he is throwing 91-94mph he isn't very good. If he is throwing 93-95, he is good. When he is throwing 94-98 like in AA 2 years ago, he is great.

Homer Bailey has had time and time again had these periods when he looks like dung. He did in 2005 and 2006.

This year he is in one of his moods again. He started out ok, now doesn't seem to care. He is the Syd Barret of Reds pitchers: It is all in his head.

The Reds need to find a way to press the buttons, but right now they aren't. Far different from the Edison Volquez saga. He always put up good power numbers in AAA. The Rangers were just stupid.

mth123
05-24-2008, 04:17 PM
I don't know of course, this is only my own speculation, but last season Homer went home to Texas and then was sent to Sarasota to work on things. We'll never know the real story, but that seems like time in the penalty box to me. Now there is lots of stuff out there about Bailey's attitude and maturity. I wonder how much of his struggles relate to this.

I said before the year that Bailey needed to stay in AAA all year and it was mostly about progression of his innings to a starters workload, but it also was to give him time to grow up. I really think his stuff and command are secondary at this point. If those other things were ready, he could be a major league calibler starter with the stuff and command that he currently has. He may not be ready to be what will ultimately become, but he'd be one of the best 5 on this and many other teams. He just isn't ready for the rigors with risking injury and his head needs to be in order to protect against him becoming a "10 cent head" type (Kyle Lohse??).

I don't worry so much about his attitude right now. He's a 22 year old kid. Most 22 year olds think they know everything. He'll grow up. I do hope he's much improved in this area by season's end. I think his time shouldn't begin until 2009 anyway.

dougdirt
05-24-2008, 05:07 PM
Aronchis,
Bailey was absolutely hitting his spots earlier in the season working 91-94 MPH. I am talking painting the black with the catcher not moving his glove. Not sure where you are getting your information, but my eyes are telling me differently.

Krusty
05-24-2008, 09:51 PM
Krrusty on Rangerszone in 2005:


Different Krusty, pal.

klw
05-24-2008, 10:03 PM
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1071/718172338_7f5e1e6abd.jpg?v=0

Bust of a Red

Aronchis
05-24-2008, 10:08 PM
Aronchis,
Bailey was absolutely hitting his spots earlier in the season working 91-94 MPH. I am talking painting the black with the catcher not moving his glove. Not sure where you are getting your information, but my eyes are telling me differently.


Bailey was throwing harder than that. He was at 93-94 consistantly. Some games more 94-95 with touches up to 96-97.

He misses his spots because he is scared to throw 91-92mph junk over the zone. Wouldn't you?

Give better efforts with your velocity and nibbling won't be a problem.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 12:27 AM
Moronic to think Bailey is a bust at the age of 22. I said 22.

If he was in college right now, he'd be touted as one of the top picks of the draft. Baseball novices tend to forget there is a big difference between players who went to college and players who were drafted right out of high school. Just because a player has been in the minor leagues three years doesn't mean it's time to boom or bust.

Idiotic.

SteelSD
05-25-2008, 01:01 AM
Moronic to think Bailey is a bust at the age of 22. I said 22.

If he was in college right now, he'd be touted as one of the top picks of the draft. Baseball novices tend to forget there is a big difference between players who went to college and players who were drafted right out of high school. Just because a player has been in the minor leagues three years doesn't mean it's time to boom or bust.

Idiotic.

Bailey is, thankfully, not a bust. He might be someone who can grab a MLB rotation or pen slot at this point. Mabe his best usage is as a Closer considering his stuff and makeup. That being said, there's a guy named Jered Weaver who was available at that draft slot who's put up the following DIPS rates:

2006: 3.88
2007: 3.92
2008: 3.90

And that's over 350+ Innings Pitched to this point. At this point, Bailey isn't a bust, but shouldn't we actually wonder about how good the Reds would be at this point should the Reds actually drafted properly over the last few years?

WebScorpion
05-25-2008, 11:11 AM
As has been pointed out, it's waay too early to call Homer a bust. I'm not even sure he's in a bad stretch just because his results aren't what WE'D like to see. He is in training after all...he could be working on a specific pitch to the detriment of his overall game. In the larger scheme of his career, the outcome of each of his minor league outings don't even count. What matters is whether he's learning anything from these outings. I (and most of us here) have no idea whether that's true or not. Let the kid grow...I'm just glad he's able to grow in AAA and not on the big club as in years past. :thumbup:

Highlifeman21
05-25-2008, 10:03 PM
Bailey is, thankfully, not a bust. He might be someone who can grab a MLB rotation or pen slot at this point. Mabe his best usage is as a Closer considering his stuff and makeup. That being said, there's a guy named Jered Weaver who was available at that draft slot who's put up the following DIPS rates:

2006: 3.88
2007: 3.92
2008: 3.90

And that's over 350+ Innings Pitched to this point. At this point, Bailey isn't a bust, but shouldn't we actually wonder about how good the Reds would be at this point should the Reds actually drafted properly over the last few years?


It's thoughts like this that make me cry myself to sleep some nights. Had we not wasted multiple 1st Round Draft picks over the last few years, we certainly wouldn't be the Reds anymore. We'd be better than the Reds. We might actually be the Rays.

Always Red
05-25-2008, 10:35 PM
I think if he fails it is an indictment of the Reds' inability to develop him.

Every single organization has failed to develop guys with an arm like Bailey's.

Some men with great arms just do not develop into PITCHERS. I've watched Homer pitch, as recently as ST; he is definitely a THROWER, at least at this point.

Homer is well documented for having a hard head, and being difficult to coach..

Maybe some of the blame needs to be placed on Homer?

PS- BTW, I think he might make a very excellent closer.

wheels
05-27-2008, 08:55 AM
Bailey is, thankfully, not a bust. He might be someone who can grab a MLB rotation or pen slot at this point. Mabe his best usage is as a Closer considering his stuff and makeup. That being said, there's a guy named Jered Weaver who was available at that draft slot who's put up the following DIPS rates:

2006: 3.88
2007: 3.92
2008: 3.90

And that's over 350+ Innings Pitched to this point. At this point, Bailey isn't a bust, but shouldn't we actually wonder about how good the Reds would be at this point should the Reds actually drafted properly over the last few years?

That last point is spot on.

He was DanO's first draft pick, at a time when they needed as close to a can't miss as possible. We all know that there is no such thing as "can't miss", but you're definitely increasing your chances of "missing" when you draft a guy like Bailey.

If Bailey ever materializes as anything more than a "what could have been" or "whatever happened to...?", it will have been against some pretty steep odds.

I really like the kid. He's got an edge to him, and I'm rooting for him. Whatever happens, it's not really on him. It's on the DanO regime for trying to draw blood from a stone.