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View Full Version : What was Redszone like when Dunn was called up?



OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 03:34 PM
I was just curious, with the buzz surrounding Jay Bruce and everyone wanting to see him called up... I was just wondering, what was Redszone like in July 2001 when Adam Dunn was destroying minor league pitcher to the tune of 32 homeruns between AA and AAA, another homerun in the futures game and two more in the AAA all-star game. I can't imagine the buzz on here on the day Dunn was called up. I wish there was a way to go back and read that thread but since you can't I was hoping to do the next best thing and hear from the folks who were here back then.:)

And while we're at it, what was it like on here when Griffey Jr. was acquired? I know I was jumping with joy on both occasions.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 05:37 PM
I was just curious, with the buzz surrounding Jay Bruce and everyone wanting to see him called up... I was just wondering, what was Redszone like in July 2001 when Adam Dunn was destroying minor league pitcher to the tune of 32 homeruns between AA and AAA, another homerun in the futures game and two more in the AAA all-star game. I can't imagine the buzz on here on the day Dunn was called up. I wish there was a way to go back and read that thread but since you can't I was hoping to do the next best thing and hear from the folks who were here back then.

Excitement abound with positive anticipation, many of us saw the stats and knew the name of Dunn, believing that he would be a great addition to the offense, even me. Though later I did get in trouble with the board saying that he needed to be sent down to AAA thinking to myself that he might learn better bat control and plate discipline and not strikeout so much, becoming an even better player, and a host of other selectively worded postings when I was frustrated with him. I don’t recall much being said about his age or fielding experience, whether he was a good or otherwise fielder though, perhaps others do. Not like the excuses, propaganda spin doctoring against Bruce coming up, but the excitement and positive anticipation for Bruce coming up is more like the time of Dunn coming up.



And while we're at it, what was it like on here when Griffey Jr. was acquired? I know I was jumping with joy on both occasions.

There was no here at the time, cincy.com was the hot message board at the time. The Mariner fans invaded the board reminding Reds fans that Griffey was not their savior and that he took up too large of a percentage of the payroll for the Reds small market team and that the Reds needed pitching, all the while constantly spewing comments about Griffey.

The rose colored glasses that many of us had on at the time wanted to see it differently and most of us were very excited with the addition of a great player thinking that he would be a great addition to the 1999 team and push them to the glory days that had not been seen since 1990 or the mid to late 70’s as we had been told that the Reds were building for 2003, after the 1999 season many of us naturally thought that the Reds had something genuinely to build upon, and they did, I don’t think any of us had the foresight to envision the injuries that were to follow, how could we.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 05:45 PM
Adam Dunn Minors
4 Seasons .304 .415 .525 .940 343 games 1208 AB
Home runs - 1998 - 4, 1999 - 11, 2000 - 16, 2001 - 32

Jay Bruce Minors
4 Seasons .308 .366 .556 .922 351 games 1332 AB
Home run - 2005 - 9, 2006 - 16, 2007 - 26, 2008 - 10

BCubb2003
05-24-2008, 06:06 PM
People kept saying that Austin Kearns was supposed to be even better.

KronoRed
05-24-2008, 06:14 PM
That 2001 team had Deion Sanders on it, we have Corey Patterson... similarities abound ;)

redsrule2500
05-24-2008, 06:27 PM
Austin Kearns, straight from AA, was even more surprising. Hopes were high for both of them.

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 06:41 PM
2001 = Adam Dunn, with Austin Kearns not far behind.

2008=Jay Bruce, with Todd Frazier not far behind?

Thanks for the responses guys. I wish I had been here back then. I wish there was some way to go back and find an archived thread of when Dunn was called up.

reds44
05-24-2008, 06:43 PM
If I remember correctly (and I was like 11 or 12 at the time), Kearns was always thought to be better than Dunn was.

Frazier doesn't compare to what was expected out of either Dunn or Kearns. I don't think Kearns or Dunn was ever the best prospect in baseball like Bruce is either.

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 06:48 PM
The reason Dunn was the never the No. 1 prospect was because he had solid seasons in the minors and flashed star potential but it wasn't until 2001 when he had the huge breakout season. He most likely would have been the No. 1 prospect in baseball after the 2001 season had he still qualified.

KronoRed
05-24-2008, 06:50 PM
Kearns was going to be the more "complete" player, but kept getting sidelined for various reasons.

KittyDuran
05-24-2008, 06:52 PM
He was THE only reason I kept going to the games in 2001 after July. That was the first year I purchased season tickets - weekends. I ended up going to 45 games and the Reds only won 14 that year. :thumbdown

I agree that Kearns was looked upon as having a better upside (or was more rounded) as a player.

Ron Madden
05-24-2008, 06:59 PM
kearns was said to have better instincts and higher upside than Dunn. In Baseball things don't always turn out as expected.

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 07:10 PM
It's amazing the start that Kearns got off to his major league career. He hit .455 with a 1.299 OPS through his first 40 plate apperances. He finished the 2002 season with a statline of .315/.407/.500 - .907 OPS. His 2003 season started just about the same - he hit .303/.431/.640 - 1.072 OPS in April. He was basically Albert Pujols. He continued that into May until the night that Ray King IMO ruined his career. The date was May 21st...Kearns was hitting .309/.417/.599 at the time and IIRC led the league with 43 RBI's. I believe Dunn led the league with 17 homeruns and Kearns was close behind at 13. Kearns never quite seemed to rebound from that injury as he OPS'ed just .656 in June and went 2-for-16 in July before shutting it down. He was just never the same after that. Who knows what could have been had he stayed healthy.

Ron Madden
05-24-2008, 07:20 PM
It's amazing the start that Kearns got off to his major league career. He hit .455 with a 1.299 OPS through his first 40 plate apperances. He finished the 2002 season with a statline of .315/.407/.500 - .907 OPS. His 2003 season started just about the same - he hit .303/.431/.640 - 1.072 OPS in April. He was basically Albert Pujols. He continued that into May until the night that Ray King IMO ruined his career. The date was May 21st...Kearns was hitting .309/.417/.599 at the time and IIRC led the league with 43 RBI's. I believe Dunn led the league with 17 homeruns and Kearns was close behind at 13. Kearns never quite seemed to rebound from that injury as he OPS'ed just .656 in June and went 2-for-16 in July before shutting it down. He was just never the same after that. Who knows what could have been had he stayed healthy.


Agreed.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 07:26 PM
The future was bright
First part season Kearns 2002 age 22
.315 .407 .500 .907 107 games 372 AB 13 HR

First part season Dunn 2001 age 21
.262 .371 .578 .949 66 games 244 AB 19 HR

First Reds season Griffey Jr. age 30
.271 .387 .556 943 145 games 520 AB 40 HR

The injuries followed
Kearns
Disabled List: [Aug 27,2002] - 15 Day Disabled list - (strained left hamstring) [Oct 2,2002] - Activated [Nov 5,2003] - Activated [May 19,2004] - Activated [Jun 8,2004] - 15 Day Disabled list - (sore right thumb) [Jul 11,2004] - Transferred to 60 day DL. [Aug 24,2004] - Activated

Griffey
Disabled List: [Apr 30,2001] - 15 Day Disabled list - (Partial tear in left hamstring) [Jun 15,2001] - Activated [Apr 7,2002] - 15 Day Disabled list - (partially tore the patella tendon and partially dislocated his right kneecap) [May 24,2002] - Activated [Jun 25,2002] - 15 Day Disabled list - (strained right hamstring) [Jul 22,2002] - Activated [Apr 7,2003] - 15 Day Disabled list - (dislocated right shoulder) [May 13,2003] - Activated [Nov 5,2003] - Activated [Jul 11,2004] - 15 Day Disabled list - (partial tear of his right hamstring muscle) [Aug 3,2004] - Activated [Aug 12,2004] - 15 Day Disabled list - (complete tear of his right hamstring) [Nov 2,2004] - Activated [Apr 17,2006] - 15 Day Disabled list - (Injury unknown) [May 11,2006] - Activated

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 07:31 PM
I don't know about RedsZone, but I was fired up and then some when Dunn was called up. I remember thinking "I can't believe a power hitter is so patient at the plate. What a gifted eye and natural power." However, little did I know Dunn doesn't exactly have a great eye, he just takes too many pitches. I never thought Dunn would go on to set the all-time MLB record for strikeouts in a season. Given the tear he was on in AA-AAA in 2001 and then the way he played when he first got called up, I definitely bought into the Adam Dunn hype and then some. I even thought he would develop into a good defensive LF or 1B because he was billed as such a great "athlete" from his days as a high school quarterback (and U of Texas recruit). Dunn did swipe 19 bags in 2002, so you have to give him credit for being a good athlete for his size, but he never developed into a good LF obviously, and refused to even try at 1B for longer than a week. Dunn also has a relatively weak throwing arm for his stature. Not that size has ever equalled arm strength, but you know what I mean. Dunn has a weak throwing arm for a MLB outfielder no matter the size.

OK, so I was wrong about Dunn being a great one (he's good, not great) but I'm definitely going to be right about Jay Bruce. Believe the hype!!! He is a can't miss, can't miss prospect ;-)

Ron Madden
05-24-2008, 07:40 PM
I don't know about RedsZone, but I was fired up and then some when Dunn was called up. I remember thinking "I can't believe a power hitter is so patient at the plate. What a gifted eye and natural power." However, little did I know Dunn doesn't exactly have a great eye, he just takes too many pitches. I never thought Dunn would go on to set the all-time MLB record for strikeouts in a season. Given the tear he was on in AA-AAA in 2001 and then the way he played when he first got called up, I definitely bought into the Adam Dunn hype and then some. I even thought he would develop into a good defensive LF or 1B because he was billed as such a great "athlete" from his days as a high school quarterback (and U of Texas recruit). Dunn did swipe 19 bags in 2002, so you have to give him credit for being a good athlete for his size, but he never developed into a good LF obviously, and refused to even try at 1B for longer than a week. Dunn also has a relatively weak throwing arm for his stature. Not that size has ever equalled arm strength, but you know what I mean. Dunn has a weak throwing arm for a MLB outfielder no matter the size.

OK, so I was wrong about Dunn being a great one (he's good, not great) but I'm definitely going to be right about Jay Bruce. Believe the hype!!! He is a can't miss, can't miss prospect ;-)


1. Adam Dunn does have a good eye.

2. Adam Dunn went into spring training willing to play Firstbase. He really never got the chance, Wayne signed Hatte and that was that.


I get the feeling you just don't like Adam Dunn. ;)

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 07:48 PM
1. Adam Dunn does have a good eye.

2. Adam Dunn went into spring training willing to play Firstbase. He really never got the chance, Wayne signed Hatte and that was that.


I get the feeling you just don't like Adam Dunn. ;)

I am indifferent on Adam Dunn. I lean towards liking him; I see the good and bad in him. I understand why some like him and don't want to trade him under any circumstances. I fully understand the argument that our already inept offense will be terrible if we don't have Dunn next year. But c'mon man, you can't set the all-time Major League Baseball record for single-season strikeouts and "have a good eye." (And didn't he actually do it twice, or come really close?) Repeat after me my friend, all-time Major League Baseball record for strikeouts. I just don't see how you can have a good eye and strike out that many times. Not just a lot, more than anyone else in the history of the game. Those two just don't go together IMO. Dunn might have an "average" eye, but he certainly does not have a good eye like some of the best players in the game do. Just because a player walks a lot doesn't mean he has a great eye (especially if he is, cough, striking out more than anyone that has ever played baseball). K/BB ratio is a better indicator IMO.

I will say Dunner's K's are down this year which is a great sign as far as I'm concerned.

Ron Madden
05-24-2008, 07:53 PM
Wow, How could I have forgotten about all those strikeouts?

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 08:05 PM
I wasted way too much time with a well-thought out post and all you can give me is that low-grade sarcasm?

Raisor
05-24-2008, 08:33 PM
I wasted way too much time with a well-thought out post and all you can give me is that low-grade sarcasm?

Well, when you're so blinded by the strikeouts, there really isn't much more to say then sarcasm.

I really think Dunn should frost his hair. Who's with me?

Chip R
05-24-2008, 08:37 PM
I really think Dunn should frost his hair. Who's with me?

:wave:

cincinnati chili
05-24-2008, 08:40 PM
There was a lot of buzz on Redszone on Dunn from high A ball on up. Many of us saw him on TV for the first time at some minor league (AAA?) all star game at midseason. He was bigger than everyone on the field and crushed a homer that went over the foul pole.

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 08:53 PM
There was a lot of buzz on Redszone on Dunn from high A ball on up. Many of us saw him on TV for the first time at some minor league (AAA?) all star game at midseason. He was bigger than everyone on the field and crushed a homer that went over the foul pole.

That homer over was in the future game in Seattle...IIRC he hit off the facing of the second deck.

He also pounded two homeruns in the AAA All-Star game on TV and nearly hit a third homer.

OldRightHander
05-24-2008, 08:55 PM
I was just lurking here at the time and wasn't posting, but I do remember a fair amount of excitement, especially the tear he went on after he came up.

Raisor
05-24-2008, 08:59 PM
There was a lot of buzz on Redszone on Dunn from high A ball on up. Many of us saw him on TV for the first time at some minor league (AAA?) all star game at midseason. He was bigger than everyone on the field and crushed a homer that went over the foul pole.


Yeah, it was the AAA allstar game. I want to say it was in Indy that year, but I don't remember for sure.

MWM
05-24-2008, 09:07 PM
I believe MVP Ryan Howard actually broke the strikeout record last year.

westofyou
05-24-2008, 09:08 PM
I believe MVP Ryan Howard actually broke the strikeout record last year.

Can you repeat that?

Chip R
05-24-2008, 09:16 PM
IIRC, the Dunn and Bruce situations were very similar. Dunn wasn't called up till mid-late July and he was tearing up the minors. People were begging for him to be called up much like people were begging for Bruce to be called up.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 09:19 PM
Can you repeat that?


1 Ryan Howard 199 2007

KittyDuran
05-24-2008, 09:24 PM
Yeah, it was the AAA allstar game. I want to say it was in Indy that year, but I don't remember for sure.Was it at Indy?... I still have the tape of the game. IIRC, they were interviewing the manager of the International League team when he hit the second. The homer hit at the Futures game in Seattle was marred by someone talking over it (Bud?) and it was much longer than recorded. :p:

OnBaseMachine
05-24-2008, 09:50 PM
I believe MVP Ryan Howard actually broke the strikeout record last year.

And already has 72 K's this year, putting him on pace for 235 strikeouts. BTW he missed roughly 20 games last year or else he would have shattered the record.

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 11:26 PM
So is Dunn 2 and 3 all time?

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 11:30 PM
Dunn is still a very good player IMO with or without the K's. All I'm saying (and did say) is you can't set the all-time MLB record for K's and "have a good eye." You don't think Ryan Howard has a good eye do you?

Westofyou, I said you don't think Ryan Howard has a good eye do you? He's still a good player (as is Dunn) but we're talking about having a good eye at the plate.

Spring~Fields
05-24-2008, 11:35 PM
So is Dunn 2 and 3 all time?


All I'm saying (and did say) is you can't set the all-time MLB record for K's and "have a good eye."

The top 16 Major League Baseball career strikeout leaders (as of May 22, 2008):

Reggie Jackson - 2,597
Sammy Sosa - 2,306
Jim Thome - 2,092
Andrés Galarraga - 2,003
José Canseco - 1,942
Willie Stargell - 1,936
Mike Schmidt - 1,883
Fred McGriff - 1,882
Tony Perez - 1,867
Dave Kingman - 1,816
Bobby Bonds - 1,757
Craig Biggio - 1,753
Carlos Delgado - 1,638
Ken Griffey, Jr. - 1,619
Reggie Sanders - 1,614
Jim Edmonds - 1,613

Active batters in the top 50 (as of May 22, 2008):

3. Jim Thome - 2,092
20. Carlos Delgado - 1,638
21. Ken Griffey, Jr. - 1,619
22. Reggie Sanders - 1,614
23. Jim Edmonds - 1,613
24. Manny Ramírez - 1,591
30. Alex Rodriguez - 1,546
32. Mike Cameron - 1,527
34. Jeff Kent - 1,490

George Anderson
05-24-2008, 11:37 PM
Yeah, it was the AAA allstar game. I want to say it was in Indy that year, but I don't remember for sure.

Yes it was in Indy and I was in attendance. His homerun for those familiar with Victory Field went well past the street that goes along the right field wall. It was an incredible shot!!

MWM
05-24-2008, 11:38 PM
A good eye has nothing to do with strike outs. Not sure where this idea came from. A good eye is about not swinging at bad pitches. Heck, some of the worst eyes in the game rarely strike out. Take a look at the guys who strike out very little, and I bet a lot of them rarely walk as well.

gonelong
05-24-2008, 11:47 PM
I was just curious, with the buzz surrounding Jay Bruce and everyone wanting to see him called up... I was just wondering, what was Redszone like in July 2001 when Adam Dunn was destroying minor league pitcher to the tune of 32 homeruns between AA and AAA, another homerun in the futures game and two more in the AAA all-star game.

Frankly I was PO'ed. I put together a weekend for me and the Mrs. down in Lville to watch Dunn down there and he was called up a week before we went.

No worries, got a foul ball at the game and the Mrs. enjoyed the weekend. Kudos to whomever turned us onto the dive that served "frickled pickels". Yummy.

GL

Caveat Emperor
05-25-2008, 01:16 PM
Westofyou, I said you don't think Ryan Howard has a good eye do you? He's still a good player (as is Dunn) but we're talking about having a good eye at the plate.

I don't see how you can succeed at professional baseball as a hitter to the tune of winning the Most Valuable Player award and not "have a good eye."

Dude has crazy offensive statitics -- do you think he was just mashing the B-button down on every pitch and hoping the ball was where he was swinging?

*BaseClogger*
05-25-2008, 01:35 PM
A good eye has nothing to do with swinging and missing at pitches to hit. Dunn can have a good eye, but still rack up the strikeouts by missing pitches in the strike zone...

SteelSD
05-25-2008, 02:25 PM
A good eye has nothing to do with strike outs. Not sure where this idea came from. A good eye is about not swinging at bad pitches.

Bingo.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=319&position=OF

Of the pitches thrown to Dunn this season, only 45.29% of them have been strikes. Dunn has swung at only 14.91% of pitches out of the strike zone this season. That's a scary-good eye at the plate. Upper-echelon scary good.

BTW, search up Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, and Barry Bonds. Some striking similarities in batting eye skill sets.

GAC
05-25-2008, 02:43 PM
I don't quite understand the "good eye" analogy either. And I respect you opinion BD, but if one is going to say that strikeouts are indicative of not possessing a good eye, then in the same sense how do explain his walks and OB%? Wouldn't that be indicative of a good eye?

reds44
05-25-2008, 02:58 PM
It's amazing the start that Kearns got off to his major league career. He hit .455 with a 1.299 OPS through his first 40 plate apperances. He finished the 2002 season with a statline of .315/.407/.500 - .907 OPS. His 2003 season started just about the same - he hit .303/.431/.640 - 1.072 OPS in April. He was basically Albert Pujols. He continued that into May until the night that Ray King IMO ruined his career. The date was May 21st...Kearns was hitting .309/.417/.599 at the time and IIRC led the league with 43 RBI's. I believe Dunn led the league with 17 homeruns and Kearns was close behind at 13. Kearns never quite seemed to rebound from that injury as he OPS'ed just .656 in June and went 2-for-16 in July before shutting it down. He was just never the same after that. Who knows what could have been had he stayed healthy.
I remember his monster rookie year, but I had no idea he got off to THAT good of a start. That had to of been one of the best starts to a career ever for a position player.

Chip R
05-25-2008, 03:13 PM
A good eye has nothing to do with swinging and missing at pitches to hit. Dunn can have a good eye, but still rack up the strikeouts by missing pitches in the strike zone...


If he weren't walking very much then I would agree he doesn't have a good eye. But all those walks belie the theory that he doesn't have a good eye.

Spring~Fields
05-25-2008, 03:24 PM
Of the pitches thrown to Dunn this season, only 45.29% of them have been strikes. Dunn has swung at only 14.91% of pitches out of the strike zone this season.

Wow only 45 % were strikes

Now I am even more frustrated with Baker, for not placing Dunn up in the order to take advantage of the situation early on.

I don't know everything or a lot, but that looks to me like they don't pitch to him.

RedsManRick
05-25-2008, 03:25 PM
Dunn strikes out a lot because of a horrible contact rate and because he takes a fair amount of pitches for strikes. He walks because he doesn't swing at balls.

Strikeouts are a combination of two things:
1.) Not swinging at pitches that are called strikes
2.) Swinging and missing

Walks are a result of a single thing:
1.) Not swinging at pitches that are called balls

Check the link Steel posted from fangraphs. Fangraphs has a number of custom stats which speak to this:

-- Batting Eye: When you choose to swing --

O-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone.
2008: 246th of 264 (min 100 PA)
2007: 111th of 161 (min 500 PA)

Z-Swing%: The percentage of pitches a batter swings at inside the strike zone.
2008: 152nd of 264
2007: 111th of 161

Swing%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter swings at.
2008: 249th of 264
2007: 101st of 162

Conclusion: Dunn swings at very few balls, and is below average at swinging at strikes. Overall, he swings less than most batters.

-- Contact Rate: Hitting the ball when you swing --

O-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with outside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
2008: 238th of 264
2007: 105th of 161

Z-Contact%: The percentage of pitches a batter makes contact with inside the strike zone when swinging the bat.
2008: 252nd of 264
2007: 152nd of 161

Contact%: The overall percentage of a batter makes contact with when swinging the bat.
2008: 249th of 264
2007: 155th of 161

Conclusion: Dunn is among the worst in baseball at making contact, especially compared to his peers on balls in the strike zone.

-- Opportunity: How frequently the batter gets thrown strikes --

Zone%: The overall percentage of pitches a batter sees inside the strike zone.
2008: 251st of 264
2007: 147th of 161

Conclusion: Pitchers pitch around Dunn like the plague.

The story is pretty obvious. Dunn is really bad at making contact, very good at judging balls and strikes, and doesn't get much to hit. He knows he's bad at making contact and therefore only swings at a small number of pitches compared to other batters. This leads to both a lot of walks and a lot of strikeouts. Really isn't that complicated. That Dunn is routinely placed in a position to see even fewer strikes can be put on Dusty Baker.

vaticanplum
05-26-2008, 01:43 PM
Great post, RMR.