PDA

View Full Version : Is EdE really a good long-term answer at 3B?



fearofpopvol1
05-24-2008, 09:06 PM
Career major league stats for EdE


Overall AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
Total 1119 151 306 74 2 40 179 100 30 224 17 4 .273 .348 .450 .798
As RHB 1119 0 306 74 2 40 179 100 30 224 0 0 .273 .348 .450 .798


I look at these numbers and they're not bad. I know he's still young and hasn't had 1 full season at 3B. However, I'm just not sure that the Reds shouldn't at least be considering other options for 3B. He does make some nice plays defensively, but he also is prone to throwing errors and his footwork is definitely not top notch. His numbers (for 3B) aren't stellar. I know a lot of people here are high on him, but I wonder if the Reds are considering Frazier as an option at 3B. I think (and I hope) Walt is at least open to other ideas for 3B.

reds44
05-24-2008, 09:09 PM
Catch these numbers when he goes on a hot streak, and he'll OPS will be up around .820. He's a really streaky player, and right now he is one of his cold streak.

He'll be on this team one way or another next year, whether it is 3rd base or LF.

RedsManRick
05-24-2008, 09:10 PM
The thing is that he's still going to be cheap for a while. Frazier is a ways off and productive in th meantime. Maybe he's the long term solution, maybe not. But we've got time to figure that out, options coming in the minors, and other problem areas to worry about in the mean time.

Blitz Dorsey
05-24-2008, 09:12 PM
Heck no. Add in his defense and EE is not a very attractive long-term option as the Reds' starting 3B. If he's the best they can do, we're in trouble. I think Frazier is the long-term answer at 3B.

Chip R
05-24-2008, 09:12 PM
A good GM is always open to other options at any position. I think we would like EE better if he played for someone else. That way we would only see his web gems and home runs without the errors. After all, David Wright is supposed to be the second coming of Mike Schmidt but he has around as many errors as EE does. But we don't see his errors. All we see are his great plays and home runs. Plus he plays in New York so he's automatically a better player than EE.

fearofpopvol1
05-24-2008, 09:12 PM
The thing is that he's still going to be cheap for a while. Frazier is a ways off and productive in th meantime. Maybe he's the long term solution, maybe not. But we've got time to figure that out, options coming in the minors, and other problem areas to worry about in the mean time.

I would not be surprised if the Reds try to get Frazier in the bigs by next year. There is some time, but if the Reds plan to compete next year or the year after, I think they have decide fairly soon. Or at the very least, they need to be thinking about it.

fearofpopvol1
05-24-2008, 09:14 PM
A good GM is always open to other options at any position. I think we would like EE better if he played for someone else. That way we would only see his web gems and home runs without the errors. After all, David Wright is supposed to be the second coming of Mike Schmidt but he has around as many errors as EE does. But we don't see his errors. All we see are his great plays and home runs. Plus he plays in New York so he's automatically a better player than EE.

I agree with you defensively, but not offensively. The numbers aren't even close there. Offensively, you could make a case for Wright being the best 3B in the game.

Chip R
05-24-2008, 09:33 PM
I agree with you defensively, but not offensively. The numbers aren't even close there. Offensively, you could make a case for Wright being the best 3B in the game.


Yes, but you brought up EE's throwing errors and poor footwork.

Not everyone can be a David Wright offensively. 3B is a difficult position to fill adequately. For years the Mets and Cubs had trouble filling that position. Even the Reds had to move Pete Rose over there. Now I'm not saying EE is irreplaceable but put Freel there for a month and enjoy him staring at the ball before he throws it over to 1st. If Walt thinks that he can get a better 3B than EE, more power to him. But history shows us that it isn't as easy filling that position with a guy who can hit and field as we think.

As for Todd Frazier, he seems to be a man without a position. I believe he's played LF, SS, perhaps even some 1B as well as 3rd. Plus he's only been in AA a short time. Now a guy who is moved around a lot is usually a guy who can hit but has issues with his defense. That may be the case with Frazier or they could be grooming him at several different positions because they are not sure where they will need him.

fearofpopvol1
05-24-2008, 10:06 PM
Yes, but you brought up EE's throwing errors and poor footwork.

Not everyone can be a David Wright offensively. 3B is a difficult position to fill adequately. For years the Mets and Cubs had trouble filling that position. Even the Reds had to move Pete Rose over there. Now I'm not saying EE is irreplaceable but put Freel there for a month and enjoy him staring at the ball before he throws it over to 1st. If Walt thinks that he can get a better 3B than EE, more power to him. But history shows us that it isn't as easy filling that position with a guy who can hit and field as we think.

As for Todd Frazier, he seems to be a man without a position. I believe he's played LF, SS, perhaps even some 1B as well as 3rd. Plus he's only been in AA a short time. Now a guy who is moved around a lot is usually a guy who can hit but has issues with his defense. That may be the case with Frazier or they could be grooming him at several different positions because they are not sure where they will need him.

I wasn't excatly complimenting EdE offensively. I don't think he's bad but I'm betting that his numbers are below league average relative to position. I feel like it's getting close to the point where he's had enough time at 3B and I don't think he's shown (yet) that he is a great long-term option at that position. I'm certainly willing to give him some more time, but I'm not blown away by what I've seen. Frazier, while not ready yet, is not super far away. Frazier's defense is not great, but his bat is.

Chip R
05-24-2008, 10:34 PM
I wasn't excatly complimenting EdE offensively. I don't think he's bad but I'm betting that his numbers are below league average relative to position. I feel like it's getting close to the point where he's had enough time at 3B and I don't think he's shown (yet) that he is a great long-term option at that position. I'm certainly willing to give him some more time, but I'm not blown away by what I've seen. Frazier, while not ready yet, is not super far away. Frazier's defense is not great, but his bat is.


I know you weren't but, as I said, not everyone can be David Wright offensively. I wouldn't be too quick to run EE's numbers against the league because it might not support your conclusions. I don't know if he's a great long term option there. I don't know if Votto is a good long term option at 1st either. Ever since that 3 HR game he's been pretty cold at the plate and he's not going to make anyone forget Derrek Lee defensively. As I said, a good GM is always on the lookout for players that can fill any position. A lot of people on her ridiculed Wayne for picking up Brandon Phillips because he made 4 2nd basemen. People ridiculed him for picking up Bako since we had 2 catchers. And what did we need Keppinger for since we already had Freel and Hopper?

It would be swell if Frazier could come up and beat out EE at 3rd, hit 30 HRs and perform a miracle in the field every day. But if EE is going to be crucified for his fielding, would Frazier get the same treatment if he's lousy? Besides, if Dunn goes, he may be a prime candidate to play LF. Third basemen who can hit and field are in short supply. EE's one of those guys. If there's someone better, great, but they don't come along every day.

fearofpopvol1
05-25-2008, 03:35 AM
I know you weren't but, as I said, not everyone can be David Wright offensively. I wouldn't be too quick to run EE's numbers against the league because it might not support your conclusions. I don't know if he's a great long term option there. I don't know if Votto is a good long term option at 1st either. Ever since that 3 HR game he's been pretty cold at the plate and he's not going to make anyone forget Derrek Lee defensively. As I said, a good GM is always on the lookout for players that can fill any position. A lot of people on her ridiculed Wayne for picking up Brandon Phillips because he made 4 2nd basemen. People ridiculed him for picking up Bako since we had 2 catchers. And what did we need Keppinger for since we already had Freel and Hopper?

It would be swell if Frazier could come up and beat out EE at 3rd, hit 30 HRs and perform a miracle in the field every day. But if EE is going to be crucified for his fielding, would Frazier get the same treatment if he's lousy? Besides, if Dunn goes, he may be a prime candidate to play LF. Third basemen who can hit and field are in short supply. EE's one of those guys. If there's someone better, great, but they don't come along every day.

I was merely just posing the question and kind of giving an opinion. I don't know for sure that EdE is or isn't the answer. I just think overall, given how his amount of major league service time, I don't think he's won the position definitively. I just hope that other options are at least being considered and I hope the Reds are not in a rush to extend him or anything.

Will M
05-25-2008, 11:29 AM
FYI - there was some discussion on this about a month ago:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67337&highlight=move

PuffyPig
05-25-2008, 12:11 PM
FYI - there was some discussion on this about a month ago:

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=67337&highlight=move

I believe this is discussed every 3-4 weeks i.e. whenever EE has a hot/cold spell.

HokieRed
05-25-2008, 08:48 PM
I think EE has answered this question definitively today.

flyer85
05-25-2008, 09:30 PM
His bat sure doesn't play as a LF or 1B

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 10:47 PM
Encarnacion is terrible. How does a guy who can't play defense, can't bunt, is slow and out of shape make it to the Major Leagues? Oh yeah, I forgot he's a .300/30HR hitter. Oh nevermind, he's just an average hitter.

EE is a joke. Get up and get get get down.

SteelSD
05-25-2008, 11:20 PM
Encarnacion is terrible. How does a guy who can't play defense, can't bunt, is slow and out of shape make it to the Major Leagues? Oh yeah, I forgot he's a .300/30HR hitter. Oh nevermind, he's just an average hitter.

EE is a joke. Get up and get get get down.

Yeah, and guys who strike out a lot can't possibly have a good eye at the plate.

You go!

*BaseClogger*
05-25-2008, 11:37 PM
Encarnacion is terrible. How does a guy who can't play defense, can't bunt, is slow and out of shape make it to the Major Leagues? Oh yeah, I forgot he's a .300/30HR hitter. Oh nevermind, he's just an average hitter.

EE is a joke. Get up and get get get down.

There are a lot of guys in the Hall of Fame that couldn't play defense, couldn't bunt, were slow and out of shape. He might not be a .300 hitter, but he led the team in BA last year, and we don't know if he could hit 30 HR because the organization never gives him a chance to get consistent playing time...

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 11:41 PM
Yeah, and guys who strike out a lot can't possibly have a good eye at the plate.

You go!

Very insightful! When you have nothing intelligent to add to the current conversation, bring up something totally irrelevant from a seperate conversation and throw it in the mix. That is ingenius. Well done sir. Or madam.

HokieRed
05-26-2008, 12:05 AM
I think we are going to have to face the hard fact that we have one more position--3b--unsettled going into the future. It used to look like Bruce, Votto, Phillips, EE, and Kepp were the core of the future team. Now it's down to Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Kepp--and possibly Dunn. What looked like a very promising team now looks like one that will have a hard time being better than 4th anytime soon.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 12:07 AM
I think we are going to have to face the hard fact that we have one more position--3b--unsettled going into the future. It used to look like Bruce, Votto, Phillips, EE, and Kepp were the core of the future team. Now it's down to Bruce, Votto, Phillips, and Kepp--and possibly Dunn. What looked like a very promising team now looks like one that will have a hard time being better than 4th anytime soon.

People were saying the same thing when he started cold to start the season. Guys slump. Then, he got hot and he was great again. "Patience is a virtue"...

flyer85
05-26-2008, 12:07 AM
What looked like a very promising team now looks like one that will have a hard time being better than 4th anytime soon.

subtract Dunn and they will be wishing to finish 4th

SteelSD
05-26-2008, 12:24 AM
Very insightful! When you have nothing intelligent to add to the current conversation, bring up something totally irrelevant from a seperate conversation and throw it in the mix. That is ingenius. Well done sir. Or madam.

Well, if you're going to demand that Encarnacion knows how to bunt while positioning that he need to be a top-tier offensive player and THEN also noting that he has a mental disorder requiring medication, sarcasm is about all you're going to get; particularly after you've demanded that a "good eye" requires a lack of Strikeouts.

You've been forwarding a version of baseball that doesn't really exist.

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2008, 12:36 AM
subtract Dunn and they will be wishing to finish 4th

Keep Dunn + Add Bruce and have less of Patterson/Griffey and we could be third-place dreamin' before we know it ;-)

vaticanplum
05-26-2008, 02:36 PM
I agree with you defensively, but not offensively. The numbers aren't even close there. Offensively, you could make a case for Wright being the best 3B in the game.

Offensively, Alex Rodriguez might have something to say about that.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2008, 03:02 PM
Offensively, Alex Rodriguez might have something to say about that.

Case being the key word here.

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2008, 11:57 PM
The struggles continue...

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 12:30 AM
It's about that time where RZ starts clammoring to trade EE again, huh?

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 12:33 AM
I just don't think he's going to end up being a long-term answer. Overall, he's very frustrating to watch on both sides of the ball.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 12:42 AM
It's about that time where RZ starts clammoring to trade EE again, huh?

You think he's a championship team caliber third baseman?

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 12:43 AM
I just don't think he's going to end up being a long-term answer. Overall, he's very frustrating to watch on both sides of the ball.

That is how Adam Dunn was described for a long time...

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 12:45 AM
You think he's a championship team caliber third baseman?

I think he is at least a league average 3B with upside and has yet to become expensive. I believe there are an infinite number of formulas for winning a championship and I shy away from limiting myself to predisposed stereotypes for productivity such as "championship caliber"...

Ron Madden
05-28-2008, 12:47 AM
Edwin is only 25 yrs old.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 12:51 AM
I think he is at least a league average 3B with upside and has yet to become expensive. I believe there are an infinite number of formulas for winning a championship and I shy away from limiting myself to predisposed stereotypes for productivity such as "championship caliber"...


High error infielders are not part of any winning formula I know.

Third basemen with an OPS under .750 are also not part of any such formula.

Every time this player looks like he may be turning the corner -- offensively or defensively -- he slips back. I'd like to see him succeed. He obviously tries hard and cares. He has ability. But he leads me to the following question:

Where's Joe Randa?

RedlegJake
05-28-2008, 12:53 AM
I'm tired of EE. Really. He's so on and off at he plate he makes Aaron Boone look like Mr.Steady. I would not be upset at all if the Reds traded him. For every great play he makes he cancels it with a boneheaded play on a routine chance. Someone should clue him in -he's not Adam Dunn or Barry Bonds or Ryan Howard. He does not need to try and pull every pitch. If he'd take what he's given, go with the pitch and forget all about home runs he'd still hit as many and be a much, much better hitter overall. Yeah, I know he's only 25, he's only had 2 seasons in the majors. Okay so we wait until he's 28 or 29? How long is long enough? And in the meantime the Reds just live with the errors and the bat that disappears for long periods. Really good players, difference makers, are usually well established as hitters and defensive players by his age and level of experience. And if he isn't expected to be THAT good then why wait?

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 12:59 AM
High error infielders are not part of any winning formula I know.

Third basemen with an OPS under .750 are also not part of any such formula.

Every time this player looks like he may be turning the corner -- offensively or defensively -- he slips back. I'd like to see him succeed. He obviously tries hard and cares. He has ability. But he leads me to the question --

Where's Joe Randa?

So, now the only way to win a World Series is by having infielders that don't make a lot of errors? Has range been thrown out the window? EE's career OPS is .792 (it was .794 in 2007 and .832 in 2006)--guys go hot and cold, you are cherry-picking while he is in a slump. He's not slipping back, he is just experiencing the slumps that ALL baseball players experience...

VR
05-28-2008, 12:59 AM
EE belongs in a Ray Stevens song. Very streaky.

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 01:03 AM
How long is long enough?

He deserves at least consistent playing time for the rest of this season. He will be up for arbitration next offseason, so decisions can wait until then...


And in the meantime the Reds just live with the errors and the bat that disappears for long periods.

If that bat dissapears for such long periods of time, how does he end up with a pretty good cumulative OPS? The anwser is that when is isn't slumping he is doing what all baseball players do--he gets hot. And the "hot" makes up for the "cold". As you said yourself, the errors cancel out his range. That makes him an average fielder. :) We also know he is at least an average hitter for an NL 3B--which leads me to my next point...


And if he isn't expected to be THAT good then why wait?

Because league average 3B with potential making around league-average salary are quite valuable...

Kc61
05-28-2008, 01:12 AM
So, now the only way to win a World Series is by having infielders that don't make a lot of errors? Has range been thrown out the window? EE's career OPS is .792 (it was .794 in 2007 and .832 in 2006)--guys go hot and cold, you are cherry-picking while he is in a slump. He's not slipping back, he is just experiencing the slumps that ALL baseball players experience...

The Reds have a very high number of unearned runs allowed. EE's nine errors contribute to this total. His range is pretty good.

EE's career OPS is now .789 and for this year .734. Since mid-2006 he has had a number of long slumps.

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 01:15 AM
The Reds have a very high number of unearned runs allowed. EE's nine errors contribute to this total. His range is pretty good.

EE's career OPS is now .789 and for this year .734. Since mid-2006 he has had a number of long slumps.

Not saying that the defense shouldn't be upgraded; that is likely the easiest way to improve the team. However, RF and SS are better starting points IMO. You can argue details on his OPS all you want, but he OPS'd .794 just last year, and for some reason he can post that despite his "slumps", because he never gets credit for his "hot streaks"...

AmarilloRed
05-28-2008, 01:22 AM
I see nothing wrong with letting Edwin play at third the whole year, as we have no one else as an alternative. A decision n offering arbitration can be made at the end of the year. We can see where his numbers are at the end of the year, although 9 errors the first 2 months is not helping his cause early on. He is a very streaky hitter, so I expect things will balance out over the course of the season.

*BaseClogger*
05-28-2008, 01:31 AM
I see nothing wrong with letting Edwin play at third the whole year, as we have no one else as an alternative. A decision n offering arbitration can be made at the end of the year. We can see where his numbers are at the end of the year, although 9 errors the first 2 months is not helping his cause early on. He is a very streaky hitter, so I expect things will balance out over the course of the season.

Exactly...

WebScorpion
05-28-2008, 02:13 AM
Note to Walt Jocketty for the off-season: Garrett Atkins would look really sweet between Bruce and Dunn in our lineup. :thumbup:

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 03:38 AM
That is how Adam Dunn was described for a long time...

Difference is...Adam Dunn is pretty damn productive with the stick. EdE has yet to prove that he can be productive for an extended period of time.

I'm well aware players slump and players have hot and cold streaks, but this streak has been horrible and he looks absolutely lost at the plate. It's worse than the one he was demoted for last year and he actually has the support of the manager this time around and he has more experience. He's still realtively young, but he makes an awful lot of critical mistakes defensively and his bat (relative to position) has not been very impressive. The cheap argument is fine, but that doesn't mean he's a great option at 3B.

Due to a lack of options in the upper minors, he'll probably get to play for the rest of this season, at which point, he'll have had more than an ample chance to prove himself. I hope he turns a big corner and finishes the season on a great note, but I'm skeptical.

mth123
05-28-2008, 06:33 AM
I was touting EE as the main trade bait in the off-season. The Reds have a lot of 3B prospects on the way and if addressing the defense and the lead-off spot is a primary concern (as it should be), dealing EE with Keppinger at 3B leading off and Janish/Gonzalez at SS would probably stabilize the IF. If the Reds could get a quality RF or CF in return, the OF could be settled as well. As a young player who has upside and is still cheap, EE should be able to garner a decent return. If not an OF, a back of the rotation starter or a catcher would be a decent target as well.

I would think that a team like SF would be very interested in EE. The Giants need youthful position players that they can stick in spots that they can grow into and that just may be a good environment for a guy like EE. In the meantime, they have some pieces that they may be willing to move that could help the Reds fill some holes. Bengie Molina and Kevin Correia are guys that would interest me. Heck, I'd throw in say a Maloney and a Valaika and some vets like Ross and Belisle to help fill the holes in SF and try to get both with a kicker or two (Pat Misch?? Merkin Valdez??). Correia and his hard sinker would fit well in the 4 spot and allow Cueto to be the number 5 in his lump taking year. Molina at 33 is not ideal, but would be a massive upgrade on defense at catcher and could add some RH sock to the line-up and may actually thrive in GABP. Long term, EE, Valaika and Maloney would be good building blocks in SF and would probably be viewed as an overpayment by many. But, it would go a long way towards addressing this teams immediate problems and is a deal I'd do as long as the Reds got a kicker or two. If healthy, Valdez could be a power arm for the pen the team is looking for. There may be a better deal than that out there. Alternatively, the Reds may be able to add lesser guys than Maloney and Valaika though I would think SF wouldn't want to go much lower than guys who are on the firnge of the team's top 10 prospect list like Maloney and Valaika are.

Jpup
05-28-2008, 08:12 AM
Dude couldn't catch a cold and has a rag arm, but I love the guy for some reason. He has all the talent in the world, but I just don't know if he'll get it together. He's 25 so there is still time, but I think the Reds will give up on him before he gets it figured out, if ever.

I just don't understand how he can't make the routine plays after all the work he puts in. It just seems that he loses concentration for a second and then everything goes haywire.

Good kid though. :thumbup:

Will M
05-28-2008, 01:33 PM
The Reds have a lot of 3B prospects on the way and if addressing the defense and the lead-off spot is a primary concern (as it should be), dealing EE with Keppinger at 3B leading off and Janish/Gonzalez at SS would probably stabilize the IF. If the Reds could get a quality RF or CF in return, the OF could be settled as well. As a young player who has upside and is still cheap, EE should be able to garner a decent return. If not an OF, a back of the rotation starter or a catcher would be a decent target as well.



agree.

we have EE, Kep, Janish & Gonzales at SS and 3B.
EE likely has the most trade value and is the worst defender.
we have a hole at catcher and RF/CF with no obvious candidates in AAA to fill these holes and ( last time i looked ) no great 2008/2009 free agents at these positions. so, IMO Jocketty should be trying to find a team that needs a 3B and hac either a CF or C to trade back.

we have to improve the team defense. one bad glove in LF is ok but we have way too many bad gloves on the current team.

flyer85
05-28-2008, 01:49 PM
Keppinger's bat is not guaranteed to play well at 3rd.

If they wanted to deal EE I could see sending him to the Angels for Willits/Rodriguez.

RedsManRick
05-28-2008, 02:11 PM
Difference is...Adam Dunn is pretty damn productive with the stick. EdE has yet to prove that he can be productive for an extended period of time.

Among qualified 3B in 2007, EE's OPS was 9th of 19. I guess I'd consider league average production over the course of an year "an extended period of time". Yes, he's in a cold streak at the moment and his pop-up rate (among the leaders in MLB) is troubling, but it's fair to say that he's a league average bat at 3B and that we should expect his numbers to even out by year end. Regarding his streakiness, I'd love for somebody to show evidence that EE is any more streaky than most other players. A lot of patterns show up when you go looking for them...

Obviously the defense is still shaky and is a drag on his overall value. But he does appear to have the work ethic to address the issue and has made progress.

That's not to say he should be penciled in for the next 5 years. But that's the joy of the arbitration process. We have time to figure it out, as does EE. He's 25 with great potential. We don't need to decide if he's the long term answer right now.

Sure, you always pursue ways to improve the team. You're always exploring ideas and 3B is no different. But let's not get our panties in a bunch because our young 3B is struggling. If a better option comes along we can take it. But he hardly should be considered a particular weakness.

OnBaseMachine
05-28-2008, 02:19 PM
Keppinger's bat is not guaranteed to play well at 3rd.

If they wanted to deal EE I could see sending him to the Angels for Willits/Rodriguez.

I would ask San Fran about an EdE for Jonathan Sanchez deal.

Jpup
05-28-2008, 02:39 PM
Keppinger's bat is not guaranteed to play well at 3rd.

If they wanted to deal EE I could see sending him to the Angels for Willits/Rodriguez.

Jeff Keppinger's bat plays well anywhere you put him.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 02:40 PM
Among qualified 3B in 2007, EE's OPS was 9th of 19. I guess I'd consider league average production over the course of an year "an extended period of time". Yes, he's in a cold streak at the moment and his pop-up rate (among the leaders in MLB) is troubling, but it's fair to say that he's a league average bat at 3B and that we should expect his numbers to even out by year end. Regarding his streakiness, I'd love for somebody to show evidence that EE is any more streaky than most other players. A lot of patterns show up when you go looking for them...

Obviously the defense is still shaky and is a drag on his overall value. But he does appear to have the work ethic to address the issue and has made progress.

That's not to say he should be penciled in for the next 5 years. But that's the joy of the arbitration process. We have time to figure it out, as does EE. He's 25 with great potential. We don't need to decide if he's the long term answer right now.

Sure, you always pursue ways to improve the team. You're always exploring ideas and 3B is no different. But let's not get our panties in a bunch because our young 3B is struggling. If a better option comes along we can take it. But he hardly should be considered a particular weakness.

I think too much stock sometimes in put into OPS. It most definitely is an important piece of the puzzle, but it's not everything.

For the month of May, EdE is...

13/79 (.165 BA), 9 runs scored, 3 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 17 Ks, OBP is .230, SLG is .241 and OPS is .471.

EdE's stats are almost Patterson-esque for the season if you stack them up. EdE has a slight edge offensively, but Patterson definitely has an advantage defensively.

Why does EdE get more of a pass by many here (and he definitely does by many) than Patterson? I know, Patterson is likely to bat lead off which does not suit him, but you can't tell me that EdE deserves to hit in the 5 hole either. EdE's position is also more suited for better (power) hitters than CF is as well.

I just think with someone like Frazier not too far away, that may be the route to go soon. I know his defense is not very good (at least as of now), but at least he makes up for it offensively. Or, as someone else suggested, maybe slot Keppinger there when he's healthy again.

Will M
05-28-2008, 02:57 PM
if Kep can OPS .800 at 3B that is just fine

RichRed
05-28-2008, 03:05 PM
EdE's stats are almost Patterson-esque for the season if you stack them up. EdE has a slight edge offensively, but Patterson definitely has an advantage defensively.

Why does EdE get more of a pass by many here (and he definitely does by many) than Patterson?

Because EdE's history tells us that his bat will come around while Patterson's history tells us that he will continue to be, well, Patterson.

flyer85
05-28-2008, 03:12 PM
Why does EdE get more of a pass by many here (and he definitely does by many) than Patterson? 2 reasons
1) The Reds have a far superior option in CF(Bruce ... they don't at 3rd)
2) EE's track record shows that he is likely a better offensive player

RedsManRick
05-28-2008, 03:18 PM
Real simple, fear, sample size. For the month of may he's struggled mightily. In April he hit .287/.374/.564 in 115 AB. So does April suddenly not count?

The reality is that it all counts. The month of May is no more predictive of the rest of the 2008 season than was the month of April. Players go through hot and cold streaks. On balance, in near 1500 major league PA, Encarnacion has been a league average bat. Less than 100 AB in the current month don't change that. He's young and can be expected to improve.

Todd Frazier has 62 AB in HIGH A BALL. That's far away. Yes, he could be on the fast track, but that's a long, long ways away from league average major league production. When EE was Frazier's age, he was in the majors.

Yes, EE needs to continue to improve his defense. But don't misconstrue a willingness to tolerate a player's developmental curve with "giving him a pass". He's not excused from anything. He is what he is, a fairly young, quite cheap, league average offensively, below average defensively third baseman.

Nobody is ignoring his weaknesses, pretending that he's an all-star. But they are willing to tolerate them in the short term given both the lack of clearly better options coupled with the very real possibility of significant further improvement.

Keppinger might be a marginally better option today (well, once he gets healthy). But he's in his peak and not likely to improve. It's a sideways move for today and possibly a step back for tomorrow. If and when Todd Frazier presents himself as a better major league option, I'm happy to replace EE with him.

bucksfan2
05-28-2008, 03:26 PM
I think too much stock sometimes in put into OPS. It most definitely is an important piece of the puzzle, but it's not everything.

For the month of May, EdE is...

13/79 (.165 BA), 9 runs scored, 3 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 6 BB, 1 HBP, 17 Ks, OBP is .230, SLG is .241 and OPS is .471.

EdE's stats are almost Patterson-esque for the season if you stack them up. EdE has a slight edge offensively, but Patterson definitely has an advantage defensively.

Why does EdE get more of a pass by many here (and he definitely does by many) than Patterson? I know, Patterson is likely to bat lead off which does not suit him, but you can't tell me that EdE deserves to hit in the 5 hole either. EdE's position is also more suited for better (power) hitters than CF is as well.

I just think with someone like Frazier not too far away, that may be the route to go soon. I know his defense is not very good (at least as of now), but at least he makes up for it offensively. Or, as someone else suggested, maybe slot Keppinger there when he's healthy again.

I do agree that too much stock is put into OPS. I think too often when we look at EE we see a total product that looks ok but when you dive into the season you get two completly different things. When he is hot he is a very good offensive player but when he is cold he is awful. Edwin escapes a lot of criticism because of his talent and his age. Luckily for Edwin his 1-7 game the other night was covered up by Patterson's 0-8 outing. Unlike Dunn when Edwin is not playing well he doesn't get on base at a high clip and his defensive liability makes even the easiest plays difficult.

If you assume that the Reds best 3 offensive players going forward are Dunn, Votto, and Bruce you need that consistant RH bat. My biggest question with Edwin is whether he can hit consistantly over the course of a season. Would a guy like Keppinger, who doesn't have the power ability that Edwin has, be a better option because of his consistancy? Can you count on Edwin and live with his month long swoons? Can you put two bats in the lineup (Dunn, Edwin) that you hope to get a great deal of production that can go dormant for weeks at a time? Are the Reds better off with Edwin at 3b or Keppinger?

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 03:29 PM
What does OPS have to do with it? His OPS (.734) is pretty bad right now. It's actually pretty far below his career OPS.

But that can change in a couple weeks. Just as quick as it took him to go from .900+ down to .734.

Nobody's saying he's not struggling. That's fairly obvious. OPS or not.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 04:13 PM
There's some interesting points made. Thanks for the insight.

I think EdE will have every chance in the world to prove himself for the rest of this season. So, really the ball is in his court. I'm not naive, I think he will obviously play better than he has in the month of May, but I'm not sure that he'll solidify the fact that he should be the 3B of the future. He does have his youth going for him though, but he is definitely a frustrating player to watch because he has good potential.

Also, with Frazier having been a college player, I think he will have every chance to make the big league club out of spring training next year. He may not reach Cincinnati until the ASB next year, but he is definitely on the fast track. I would not at all be surprised if he finishes this year in AA or maybe even AAA.

KronoRed
05-28-2008, 07:50 PM
Jeff Keppinger's bat plays well anywhere you put him.

They said the same thing about Jason Kendall.

*BaseClogger*
05-29-2008, 12:54 AM
Regarding his streakiness, I'd love for somebody to show evidence that EE is any more streaky than most other players.

A very blunt observation, but it stood out to me:

Edwin Encarnacion OPS
2006
April: 937
May: 738
June: 1018
July: 991
August: 992
September: 560
2007
April: 554
May: 842
June: 820
July: 614
August: 908
September: 969
2008
April: 938
May: 470

SD: 189.11

Brandon Phillips OPS
2006
April: 970
May: 675
June: 871
July: 564
August: 981
September: 457
2007
April: 792
May: 832
June: 706
July: 854
August: 923
September: 762
2008
April: 837
May: 913

SD: 151.64

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2008, 01:35 AM
Just a little comparison for ya.

Aramis Ramirez bounced between the majors and minors for parts of the 1998 (.647 OPS), 1999 (.504 OPS), and the 2000 season (.695 OPS). It was not until the 2001 season when he was 23 years old when he finally stuck in the major leagues for good. In that season he hit .300/.350/.536 - .886 OPS over 600 atbats and showed glimpses of his potential. However, in 2002, at age 24, his struggles returned. He hit only .234/.279/.387 - .666 OPS that season. The following season, at age 25, his numbers improved somewhat but were still at a disappointing .280/.330/.448 in 375 before being traded to the Cubs where he went on to hit .259/.314/.491. Overall he hit .272/.324/.465 - .789 OPS. It was not until his age 26 season that he put it all together and become a consistent hitter with a .318/.373/.578 - .951 OPS.

For comparisons sake, Edwin Encarnacion was called up in 2005 at age 22 and received 211 atbats and hit .232/.308/.436 - .744 OPS but showed great bat speed and potential. In 2006 at age 23 he had breakout season. He missed some time with injury but still hit .276/.359/.473 - .831 OPS. He was OPSing over .910 a few days into September but went into a slump and finished at a solid .831. In 2007 he got off to a slow start and fell into the doghouse of our boneheaded manager and was sent to AAA for two weeks or so. His overall line wasn't overly impressive (.289/.356/.438 - .794 OPS) but his second half was promising (.309/.360/.488 - .848 OPS). This year, his age 25 season, has seen him still being a bit inconsistent. After getting off to a slow first week he then went on a tear and OPSing .945 going into May but he's once again back to slumping and has saw his OPS drop roughly 200 points to it's current .735 mark. He's been a streaky player throughout his career so I suspect he's about to go another tear and lift his OPS over the .850 mark.

I just thought it was interesting that his career has played out similarly to Aramis Ramirez. It was not until he was 26 did Ramirez finally figure it out and put it all together. I'm starting to see some signs of Edwin breaking out sometime soon. This year his plate discipline is improving (on pace to shatter his highest walk total by 25) and that is usually a sign of a hitter about to breakout. Hopefully the Reds are patient with Edwin because I think good things are ahead for him.

KronoRed
05-29-2008, 01:45 AM
Good stuff OBM, let us also remember that the Pirates sold low on Ramirez and got pretty much nothing for him.