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View Full Version : Phil Dumatriat......Looked Not Too bad....



Tony Cloninger
05-24-2008, 10:50 PM
vs the Cubs today.... a lot better than ever looked in a Reds start.

Again....is it the park....the coach? I mean it's one game but until he got nailed in the knee with a line drive he looked pretty good in a spot start.

WebScorpion
05-25-2008, 11:33 AM
vs the Cubs today.... a lot better than ever looked in a Reds start.

Again....is it the park....the coach? I mean it's one game but until he got nailed in the knee with a line drive he looked pretty good in a spot start.

Just like all people, as you get older, you get better. There's no substitute for experience. The problem is in professional sports, raw tools are required which only a select group of people possess, and even their tools erode quickly. With such a short career, it's very rare that a person can progress mentally quick enough to become an All-Star caliber player. Most players improve in a few areas each year and peak in their late twenties to early thirties before they begin to lose some of the edge on their requisite precision tools. Phil will turn 27 in July, so he's entering his peak years. I'm glad he's finally finding success; by all accounts he's a genuinely good person who really applies himself to his craft. :thumbup:

PuffyPig
05-25-2008, 12:10 PM
It wasn't a spot start. He's a regular in their rotation now.

There's worse pitchers in the majors than him, but I'd be surprised if he has a very long career.

Though he might be a LOOGY well into the 22nd century.

Tony Cloninger
05-25-2008, 01:19 PM
Can I quote you on that Web Scorpion?

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 12:00 AM
The Reds should have a good scouting report on him for the game tomorrow night. The big thing is just be patient. Dude has trouble finding the strike zone.

WebScorpion
05-29-2008, 12:58 AM
Can I quote you on that Web Scorpion? Um...yes?? http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/ad/paperbag.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)

redsrule2500
05-29-2008, 01:17 AM
I dunno I notice this with a lot of Reds ex-pitchers. Dempster and Lohse immedietly come to mind

WVPacman
05-29-2008, 01:24 AM
I hope im wrong but I have a feeling he will pitch good tonight.Hopefully they can jump on him early.

knuckler
05-29-2008, 10:29 AM
Baseball Prospectus yesterday took a look and found Dumatrait's BABIP wildly out of line with the line drive rate he gives up and the Pirates' defensive efficiency. In other words, he's been lucky so far this season, and here's hoping the Reds can be the beneficiaries of his regression to mean.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 10:00 PM
Didn't realize Cy Young was on the mound pitching for the Pirates tonight.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-29-2008, 10:08 PM
I will have great joy when he turns back into a pumpkin in a violent manner.

Tony Cloninger
05-29-2008, 10:59 PM
This reminds me of Jimmy Anderson.

KronoRed
05-29-2008, 11:59 PM
This reminds me of Jimmy Anderson.

Thankfully we already got our 15plus era out of Dumatriat

Kc61
05-30-2008, 12:19 AM
Beg to differ with the pumpkin prediction. I always thought Dumatrait had a chance to be decent and I defended him last year when he pitched here. Obviously that was a disaster, but I'm not shocked that he is succeeding.

In the minor leagues Dumatrait always struggled at every new level but eventually got straightened out. His big problem has always been walks but he missed his share of bats in the minors and, according to reports I read, he has a feel for pitching and can be deceptive to hitters.

Not criticizing the Reds for letting him go after last year's disaster, and Matt Maloney is potentially as good or better as a back of the rotation lefty, but I think Dumatrait could have a career.

RedlegJake
05-30-2008, 12:27 AM
I agree with kc61. It is so fashionable to blast a kid who failed to impress here but I personally root for them to succeed, especially the young guys. Sometimes it's a change of scenery or different coaching or a chance under different circumstances but I hope Phil puts together a nice career with the Bucs. Not too great against us obviously but good for him that's he's doing well so far.

osuceltic
05-30-2008, 12:28 AM
Beg to differ with the pumpkin prediction. I always thought Dumatrait had a chance to be decent and I defended him last year when he pitched here. Obviously that was a disaster, but I'm not shocked that he is succeeding.

In the minor leagues Dumatrait always struggled at every new level but eventually got straightened out. His big problem has always been walks but he missed his share of bats in the minors and, according to reports I read, he has a feel for pitching and can be deceptive to hitters.

Not criticizing the Reds for letting him go after last year's disaster, and Matt Maloney is potentially as good or better as a back of the rotation lefty, but I think Dumatrait could have a career.

The only people more to give up on Dumatrait faster than the Reds are the majority of posters on RedsZone. Young pitchers usually take a while -- especially young lefties. It pays to be patient -- especially when the option is basically giving the guy away.

fearofpopvol1
05-30-2008, 12:32 AM
I don't really blame the Reds for cutting ties. His minor numbers wern't exceptional and his big league starts were unbearable to watch (except for 1 game against the Dodgers). He wasn't showing much progress while he was with the Reds.

Kc61
05-30-2008, 12:39 AM
The only people more to give up on Dumatrait faster than the Reds are the majority of posters on RedsZone. Young pitchers usually take a while -- especially young lefties. It pays to be patient -- especially when the option is basically giving the guy away.


Well, you know, it's so interesting on this site how some guys are beloved and can do no wrong and others are trashed from the outset. Now, Phil D was just horrendous last year but I recall folks being less than enthusiastic when he was called up, even before he threw a major league pitch. On the other hand, guys like Belisle are supported and supported no matter how they pitch. Now folks are promoting Belisle as a bullpen candidate after his performance the last two seasons.

I think the Reds have done a great job of collecting young talented prospects and they all should get a shot. They all should be given a fair chance to make it with reasonable patience, but if they repeatedly don't succeed fans and the team should just let go of them and try somebody else.

Ravenlord
05-30-2008, 12:55 AM
The only people more to give up on Dumatrait faster than the Reds are the majority of posters on RedsZone. Young pitchers usually take a while -- especially young lefties. It pays to be patient -- especially when the option is basically giving the guy away.

at the time, Dumatrait did need to go down for the Reds. however, i don't think he should have been up to begin with...

also, isn't there a fair amount of research that suggests LHP starters tend to develop a couple years later than righties?

HokieRed
05-30-2008, 12:56 AM
I never liked the way we handled Dumatrait last year or the quick way Krivsky gave up on him. Left-handers who throw consistently 90-92 are too few to give up on that easily.

WVPacman
05-30-2008, 12:59 AM
Who was it that took Dumatrait's spot on the team?? I can't remember who it was.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2008, 01:01 AM
Even after tonight's 2 BB/9 K performance, Dumatrait still has an ugly 30 BB/39 K ratio in 53.2 innings. His current ERA is 3.52 despite a 1.42 WHIP, and with that ugly BB/K ratio I suspect his ERA will be over the 5.00 mark or at least around in that area by the end of the season.

HokieRed
05-30-2008, 01:03 AM
Matt Belisle puts up numbers like those and people on the board start calling him a potential #3 starter.

Kc61
05-30-2008, 01:14 AM
Even after tonight's 2 BB/9 K performance, Dumatrait still has an ugly 30 BB/39 K ratio in 53.2 innings. His current ERA is 3.52 despite a 1.42 WHIP, and with that ugly BB/K ratio I suspect his ERA will be over the 5.00 mark or at least around in that area by the end of the season.


A 1.42 WHIP for a starter is not terrible. A good rule of thumb is that a starter needs to be 1.4 or below and a reliever 1.3 or below.

And if you analyze Phil's 1.42 WHIP it is obviously a function of too many walks. I would rather have a "walk heavy" 1.42 than a "hit heavy" 1.42. Phil D has only allowed 46 hits in his 53 innings which likely means he is fooling somebody out there on the mound.

Compare this with the pitcher the Reds kept -- who allowed 212 hits in 177 innings last year and 47 hit in 29 innings this year but who walks much fewer people. And he's a righty, less of a precious commodity than a lefty starter.

Again, Dumatrait was so bad last year in the majors the Reds can't be blamed too much for letting him go. But in retrospect they may have made a bad choice. We'll see how Phil progresses. I think he'll have a career as a solid back of the rotation starter, but it's obviously too soon to tell.

It is too bad that, with all the years the Reds devoted to Dumatrait, he got only a brief trial in the majors and is now helping the competition beat the Reds.

Cedric
05-30-2008, 01:14 AM
Matt Belisle puts up numbers like those and people on the board start calling him a potential #3 starter.

Matt Belisle was one of our's. It's amazing how much slack and credit he was given for being such a bad player. Here is to hoping Matt puts up some glowing AAA numbers and polishes himself right out of here in a trade.

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2008, 01:24 AM
I'm just not overly impressed with Phil Dumatrait. I stand by my prediction that he'll post an ERA over 5.00. BTW the NL league average for WHIP this year is 1.40, so Dumatrait is slightly below that level. FWIW, I'm not all that impressed with Matt Belisle as a starter either, though he could make a decent reliever.

fearofpopvol1
05-30-2008, 02:48 AM
A 1.42 WHIP for a starter is not terrible. A good rule of thumb is that a starter needs to be 1.4 or below and a reliever 1.3 or below.

And if you analyze Phil's 1.42 WHIP it is obviously a function of too many walks. I would rather have a "walk heavy" 1.42 than a "hit heavy" 1.42. Phil D has only allowed 46 hits in his 53 innings which likely means he is fooling somebody out there on the mound.

Compare this with the pitcher the Reds kept -- who allowed 212 hits in 177 innings last year and 47 hit in 29 innings this year but who walks much fewer people. And he's a righty, less of a precious commodity than a lefty starter.

Again, Dumatrait was so bad last year in the majors the Reds can't be blamed too much for letting him go. But in retrospect they may have made a bad choice. We'll see how Phil progresses. I think he'll have a career as a solid back of the rotation starter, but it's obviously too soon to tell.

It is too bad that, with all the years the Reds devoted to Dumatrait, he got only a brief trial in the majors and is now helping the competition beat the Reds.

There's some good points in here, but the thing to consider is outside of the Cubs, I don't think anyone has faced him more than once. We'll see where he's at after some teams have gotten more than 1 look at him.

SteelSD
05-30-2008, 03:00 AM
[QUOTE=Kc61;1648974]A 1.42 WHIP for a starter is not terrible. A good rule of thumb is that a starter needs to be 1.4 or below and a reliever 1.3 or below./QUOTE]

Even if WHIP weren't a junk metric, in 2007, we saw exactly two NL pitchers produce an ERA lower than 4.00 with a WHIP as high as 1.40 (Adam Wainwright, Tom Gorzelanny). In 2006, you have one pitcher (Dontrelle Willis who did that).

From those two seasons, the average WHIP from pitchers below 5.00 (which includes a bunch of below-average ERA numbers) is about 1.33. The average WHIP of SP's below 4.00 has been about 1.26 over that span.

And the weird thing is that you basically gave up on Matt Belisle after a small sample size WHIP this season but didn't actually consider that his 2007 WHIP was 1.43 over 177+ IP- basically the same WHIP you're using to support Phil Dumatrait after only 53+ IP this season?

In the end, due to defensive influence, WHIP stinks, but why aren't you being consistent?

Kc61
05-30-2008, 11:00 AM
[QUOTE=Kc61;1648974]A 1.42 WHIP for a starter is not terrible. A good rule of thumb is that a starter needs to be 1.4 or below and a reliever 1.3 or below./QUOTE]

Even if WHIP weren't a junk metric, in 2007, we saw exactly two NL pitchers produce an ERA lower than 4.00 with a WHIP as high as 1.40 (Adam Wainwright, Tom Gorzelanny). In 2006, you have one pitcher (Dontrelle Willis who did that).

From those two seasons, the average WHIP from pitchers below 5.00 (which includes a bunch of below-average ERA numbers) is about 1.33. The average WHIP of SP's below 4.00 has been about 1.26 over that span.

And the weird thing is that you basically gave up on Matt Belisle after a small sample size WHIP this season but didn't actually consider that his 2007 WHIP was 1.43 over 177+ IP- basically the same WHIP you're using to support Phil Dumatrait after only 53+ IP this season?

In the end, due to defensive influence, WHIP stinks, but why aren't you being consistent?


Think I'm consistent. Belisle's WHIP of 1.43 was a "hit heavy" WHIP. Dumatrait's is "walk heavy." One philosophy is that the two are equivalent. I don't agree. While neither is ideal, I'd rather take a pitcher who effectively limits hits and walks too many (within reason) over one who is batted around but gives up few walks.

Now your response is likely that Belisle's propensity to giving up hits is a result of luck and defense. I think it is a result of being tatooed. That's where we likely disagree.

Having followed the career of each of these pitchers, I don't think it's a function of small sample. I think, over his career major and minor league, Phil D has been harder to hit but walks too many. Belisle is easier to hit but walks very few. While neither is a great formula, I prefer the lefty who is harder to hit.

Let me repeat, though, that I wasn't upset that Phil was let go, he was terrible with the Reds last year, and walks too many to be a top tier pitcher. I'm only pointing out that the Reds let him go rather quickly -- after devoting much effort to him in the minors -- while being perhaps too patient with others.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-30-2008, 12:04 PM
Phil Dumatrait should not have been called up last year in the first place. His numbers in AAA did not suggest he was ready for the bigs.

I have never seen a pitcher get lit up as bad as him in such a limited amount of innings.

Yesterday's Cy Young-like performance as well as the umpire giving him a GI-NORMOUS strike zone annoyed me a great deal.

I am also greatly annoyed when bad pitchers, such as Phil Dumatrait and Dave Williams, are let go (rightfully) and then pitch like world-beaters for a month and everyone thinks they are super-duper. He will soon turn into a pumpkin and it won't be pretty. My only hope is that he keeps up the mirage for a few more starts so that the Reds can be the ones to smash the pumpkin in late June.

I have been watching losing baseball for eight years now. I have seen one playoff in 18 years and a strike wipe out another rare appearance. I am grumpy and I have little love for the little guy who gets let go only to come back and haunt his old team.

Kc61
05-30-2008, 12:25 PM
Phil Dumatrait should not have been called up last year in the first place. His numbers in AAA did not suggest he was ready for the bigs.

I have never seen a pitcher get lit up as bad as him in such a limited amount of innings.

Yesterday's Cy Young-like performance as well as the umpire giving him a GI-NORMOUS strike zone annoyed me a great deal.

I am also greatly annoyed when bad pitchers, such as Phil Dumatrait and Dave Williams, are let go (rightfully) and then pitch like world-beaters for a month and everyone thinks they are super-duper. He will soon turn into a pumpkin and it won't be pretty. My only hope is that he keeps up the mirage for a few more starts so that the Reds can be the ones to smash the pumpkin in late June.

I have been watching losing baseball for eight years now. I have seen one playoff in 18 years and a strike wipe out another rare appearance. I am grumpy and I have little love for the little guy who gets let go only to come back and haunt his old team.


Shouldn't be annoyed because nobody has said Dumatrait is or will be super-duper. The thread is comparing borderline pitchers, their potential, and the fact that the Reds have shown far more patience with some than with others. That's all.

The easy answer is for the Reds to add another real good pitcher, better than Dumatrait, better than Belisle, better than Fogg. Let's hope they do.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-30-2008, 12:26 PM
Shouldn't be annoyed because nobody has said Dumatrait is or will be super-duper.

Not annoyed with anyone on this board. Just annoyed in general.

I look forward to the next Pirate series and hope he's still in the rotation.

Kc61
05-30-2008, 12:27 PM
Not annoyed with anyone on this board. Just annoyed in general.

I look forward to the next Pirate series and hope he's still in the rotation.


I'm hoping we're all not annoyed after the Braves series.

Roy Tucker
05-30-2008, 01:02 PM
Heard a brief post-game interview with Dumatrait on the radio this AM.

When asked what the difference was between last year and this year, he said he has more confidence.

FWIW.