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View Full Version : why do the Reds have such junk at AAA?



Will M
05-25-2008, 10:52 AM
I see:
Bruce & Bailey.
Maloney, Rosales ( despite the slow start ) & Herrera seem like real prospects.
Pelland, Hanigan & Dickerson could be role players.
The rest of the roster is junk. Players with no chance to be major leaguers.
Is it just the Reds or does every organization have a lot of junk at AAA?

redhawk61
05-25-2008, 10:55 AM
every team has AAA lifers. You gotta have people to fill the roster till youngers guys can progress and make it up the ladder

camisadelgolf
05-25-2008, 11:05 AM
every team has AAA lifers. You gotta have people to fill the roster till youngers guys can progress and make it up the ladder

This is true. You can also thank Dan O'Brien for his mediocre drafts and Jim Bowden for his unbelievably-horrible drafts.

_Sir_Charles_
05-25-2008, 11:07 AM
every team has AAA lifers. You gotta have people to fill the roster till youngers guys can progress and make it up the ladder

I understand and agree with that. But the problem as I see it is that the Bats don't have players "filling the roster" as much as they have players BLOCKING promotions. I posted a thread on the Sun Deck just the other day about the ages of our Reds roster and down at Louisville. When you've got a loaded minor league system with lots of blossoming talent...why do we have a dozen 30+ year olds clogging up slots in AAA? Especially considering our right-handed bat shortage with the Reds. I'm not suggesting we jettison these older AAA'ers, but rather promote them...or trade them. They've developed as much as they're gonna. A promotion to the bigs can make a player turn a corner. Look at Shearn last year. A minor league lifer finally got a shot and he pitched better than he did in Louisville. Sure, it was a small sample size to say the least, but you see what I mean. It's time to shake things up. And not just with the Reds. It's time to see some promotions. Push those young gloves & bats. Pamper the arms, but push the bats.

RedlegJake
05-25-2008, 11:10 AM
And when one of the kids is ready to move up they usually reassign or trade or cut one of the vets. The number of non-prospects at AAA for the Reds is simply because they have a lot of low level talent right now, not so much that is close. Most teams have several filler guys at AAA, though, because the simple fact is that players who are true prospects usually move pretty quickly to the big club once they get to AAA so there is a lot of turnover.

RedlegJake
05-25-2008, 11:13 AM
I understand and agree with that. But the problem as I see it is that the Bats don't have players "filling the roster" as much as they have players BLOCKING promotions. I posted a thread on the Sun Deck just the other day about the ages of our Reds roster and down at Louisville. When you've got a loaded minor league system with lots of blossoming talent...why do we have a dozen 30+ year olds clogging up slots in AAA? Especially considering our right-handed bat shortage with the Reds. I'm not suggesting we jettison these older AAA'ers, but rather promote them...or trade them. They've developed as much as they're gonna. A promotion to the bigs can make a player turn a corner. Look at Shearn last year. A minor league lifer finally got a shot and he pitched better than he did in Louisville. Sure, it was a small sample size to say the least, but you see what I mean. It's time to shake things up. And not just with the Reds. It's time to see some promotions. Push those young gloves & bats. Pamper the arms, but push the bats.

For every guy you take from AA you have to have one from Sarasota to replace him then from Dayton and so on. Its a chain reaction. After the draft signings start reporting you'll see some movement to make spots for advanced guys at GCL, Billings and Dayton. It'll push the chain up.

SarasotaFan
05-25-2008, 11:20 AM
Besides, it's just as easy to promote someone from AA

TRF
05-25-2008, 12:51 PM
This is true. You can also thank Dan O'Brien for his mediocre drafts and Jim Bowden for his unbelievably-horrible drafts.

Not so much JimBo by now. maybe 2 years ago. And is last couple of drafts, he was handcuffed by Allen and Lindner. You can not underestimate how much damage those two did to the system. DanO's 2005 draft was pretty damn good. In another year I think we'll see a lot of his top 10-15 picks at AAA or higher. A few of his 2004 picks are there or have reached the majors (Bailey, Janish) DanO's drafting actually got better his second go around. Did Krivsky's? we'll see in about 2 years.

lollipopcurve
05-25-2008, 01:08 PM
Guys who look like good prospects in the lower levels don't always look that way at higher levels. If you have 2-3 legit prospects at AAA -- guys who profile as above-average major leaguers, you're in decent shape. The fact is, the AAA roster is in a lot better shape than it has been -- for years and years it was filled with non-prospects few of whom were younger than 27.

Kc61
05-25-2008, 01:12 PM
You can't look at AAA in isolation. Teams use AAA largely for veterans signed as insurance policies in case of injury. Jerry Hairston is a good example. For many organizations, you really need to look at AA to understand the depth of high minor league prospects.

Reds are in good shape in AA with a lot of depth. Maybe no Jay Bruces at that level, but he's a once a decade prospect. Thompson, Roenicke, Strait, Gutierrez, Valaika, Turner, Tatum, Cumberland, Manuel, Viola, Lecure, probably others I'm forgetting are all possible big leaguers, all at Chatanooga right now. Now Jordan Smith is going to that level.

HokieRed
05-25-2008, 02:24 PM
Have to take issue with the knock on Dan O's drafting. To date, O'Brien either drafted or signed as free agents the following who have or will certainly play in the major leagues: Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish, Johnny Cueto. Two others have a very good chance: Adam Rosales, Craig Tatum. Then there are several others who are strong prospects. On the other hand, when I look over Krivsky's pool of draftees or beginning free agent signees, I don't see a single for-sure major leaguer: Frazier would be the closest approximation. This is not meant as a knock on Wayne, only as a defense of Dan O'Brien, who did some really good and underappreciated work for this organization.

Ron Madden
05-25-2008, 03:08 PM
Have to take issue with the knock on Dan O's drafting. To date, O'Brien either drafted or signed as free agents the following who have or will certainly play in the major leagues: Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Paul Janish, Johnny Cueto. Two others have a very good chance: Adam Rosales, Craig Tatum. Then there are several others who are strong prospects. On the other hand, when I look over Krivsky's pool of draftees or beginning free agent signees, I don't see a single for-sure major leaguer: Frazier would be the closest approximation. This is not meant as a knock on Wayne, only as a defense of Dan O'Brien, who did some really good and underappreciated work for this organization.

I agree 100%.

gedred69
05-25-2008, 03:28 PM
A friend who played in the Minors for 2 teams in the mid-late 90's told me once that if you want to see a teams future, look at High A and AA. If a guy makes it to AA he is viewed as having good enough talent to be a MLB player. It's all up to him developing and having the mental will to climb on up. Well, the Reds have some looking good at those levels. We'll know in the next 2 years, barring injuries.

Kingspoint
05-25-2008, 03:35 PM
When Dan O'Brien took over the franchise, he worked with a cheap owner and the Minor League system was ranked 4th worst in the Majors out of 30 organizations. When that's what you have to work with, expected growth to where every level is above average would take 5 to 7 years. It's been one in 4 years, and the AAA level has produced very well for the REDS the last two years. There have been some excellent players at AAA Louisville the last two years. I don't think I need to make a list.

Patience, Obe-Wan.

RedsManRick
05-25-2008, 11:47 PM
You want a healthy body of fringe talent so you are forced in to over-promoting your youth. It's a lot easier to a Lehr type packing to make room for a guy than to go out and find decent MLB-emergency level talent in the middle of the season.

SarasotaFan
05-26-2008, 10:22 AM
You want a healthy body of fringe talent so you are forced in to over-promoting your youth. It's a lot easier to a Lehr type packing to make room for a guy than to go out and find decent MLB-emergency level talent in the middle of the season.

too bad Lehrs going to Korea from what i hear...

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 11:54 AM
too bad Lehrs going to Korea from what i hear...

That's my point. If you don't have a Lehr to ditch and you need to make room for a guy in AA, what do you do?

SarasotaFan
05-26-2008, 12:29 PM
That's my point. If you don't have a Lehr to ditch and you need to make room for a guy in AA, what do you do?

release someone. or make a trade.

gedred69
05-26-2008, 06:13 PM
That's my point. If you don't have a Lehr to ditch and you need to make room for a guy in AA, what do you do?

I think I heard or maybe read it, that Lehr was all in favor of the deal, probably realizing that this was his next best shot. He's almost 31 and still at AAA. Guys making it to MLB at that age are scarce. Someone else posted, if it was for enough money, maybe BC would be more amenable to releasing Patterson (owing him money still) so Bruce can be called up to where he should be :D

RedlegJake
05-26-2008, 11:51 PM
I think I heard or maybe read it, that Lehr was all in favor of the deal, probably realizing that this was his next best shot. He's almost 31 and still at AAA. Guys making it to MLB at that age are scarce. Someone else posted, if it was for enough money, maybe BC would be more amenable to releasing Patterson (owing him money still) so Bruce can be called up to where he should be :D

Lehr actually had an agreement he could go to Korea if there was an offer. If I was in his position I'd like to try that, too. Use baseball to have an adventure since it isn't likely by his age that you're going to see the big leagues. I think some of these guys who are journeyman minor leaguers and then go overseas to play in Asia and come home and play some more before hanging it up would be more interesting to sit and shoot the breeze with than a guy who went straight to the big leagues as a youngster.

toledodan
05-27-2008, 12:39 AM
i wish the kid luck.