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View Full Version : June worries me



redsfaninbsg
05-25-2008, 12:54 PM
The Reds have shown some life over the last two weeks going 8-4 over the last 12 games. However, June scares me to death, with series against Boston, NY, Cleveland, and Toronto the Reds season could hinge on playing .500 ball through this stretch.

Joseph
05-25-2008, 03:32 PM
I don't think it matters at this point, until the team puts the best players on the field. Jay Bruce is still in AAA while Freel, Patterson, and Junior man regular outfield positions.

We are carrying 3 catchers.

We have Hatteberg who does not like to PH nor does he do it well, not to mention his position is redundant with Valentin who is in the 3 headed catcher situation.

The roster is in terrible shape.

Who we are playing doesn't matter as long as thats a fact.

icehole3
05-25-2008, 04:00 PM
I agree Joe, it looks like some movement is taking place in the minors, maybe its just because the draft is right around the corner or maybe the GM is done evaluating the system.

Ron Madden
05-25-2008, 04:03 PM
A good GM is always evaluating the system.

;)

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 04:42 PM
June is really going to worry me if Matt Belisle remains in the rotation. That guy is batting-practice hittable. People make fun of Josh Fogg. The fact is that Fogg is a better pitcher than Belisle.

Aronchis
05-25-2008, 04:44 PM
The Reds are finished. They don't have enough pitching(or ready pitching at least) and the offense isn't overly good either.

Time to retreat. Any attempt to try and hold up this stinker will just cause more damage into next year. This is where Krivsky IMO struggled to get through to Cast. Lets see if Jock has better luck.

Patrick Bateman
05-25-2008, 04:50 PM
June is really going to worry me if Matt Belisle remains in the rotation. That guy is batting-practice hittable. People make fun of Josh Fogg. The fact is that Fogg is a better pitcher than Belisle.

Using the word "fact" to describe an opinion is getting pretty old fast.

Aronchis
05-25-2008, 04:53 PM
Belisle couldn't mantain the 92-94mph velocity he flashed last April 07 and sporadically throughout the season. I wouldn't be surprised he doesn't retire. Though saying Fogg is better, is a hoot. Fogg never has had a major injury, he just doesn't have any physical talent.

Homer is REALLY missing a golden chance with his nutty ways. Somebody play Season of the Abyss for him on his DVD player. Maybe that will get the juices flowing.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 05:01 PM
Using the word "fact" to describe an opinion is getting pretty old fast.

Try this...

Career stats=facts in my book. Fogg has won 10-plus games for six straight years in MLB or something. Belisle could never pull that off.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 05:02 PM
And ouch, Austin Kearns as a moniker. Nevermind, I understand the anger.

cumberlandreds
05-25-2008, 05:06 PM
Every month should worry Reds fans. This team just isn't very good and won't be until the the front office gets over the fact that the young guys in the minors are better than what they have in the majors.

Patrick Bateman
05-25-2008, 05:10 PM
Try this...

Career stats=facts in my book. Fogg has won 10-plus games for six straight years in MLB or something. Belisle could never pull that off.

Wins is a marvelous stat. Clearly I'm in the wrong... my bad.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 05:10 PM
Just when I think Belisle is bad, he proves me wrong. He's terrible. It's time to get Bailey up, get Fogg back in there or give Affeldt a chance.

Patrick Bateman
05-25-2008, 05:10 PM
And ouch, Austin Kearns as a moniker. Nevermind, I understand the anger.

Better than being named after a reindeer :)

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 05:15 PM
Wins is a marvelous stat. Clearly I'm in the wrong... my bad.

Obviously wins is not the best indicator for pitching acumen, as Aaron Harang is proving this year. However, when you are comparing two mediocre pitchers (at best) like Belisle and Fogg, give me the guy who has proven over time he can consistently win games in the MLB. If there was a big discrepency in ERA and WHIP, then of course wins wouldn't be a factor in comparing them. But in this case, it's highly relevant IMO. Over a season, I bet Josh Fogg wins you more games than Matt Belisle. Their ERAs are going to be similar but Fogg is going to pitch tougher in tough moments in most cases. Belisle will continue to "pull a Belisle" in big moments.

Blitz Dorsey
05-25-2008, 05:21 PM
All that said, I hope Homer Bailey gets the call and we can forget about Fogg and Belisle. For all of Bailey's faults, he is still going to be more effective than either of those guys.

And if it's not Bailey, then it should be Affeldt. I don't like taking away from the bullpen but with Bray coming back strong they could get away with it. However, I would prefer to leave Affeldt in the pen and bring Bailey up.

Patrick Bateman
05-25-2008, 05:28 PM
Obviously wins is not the best indicator for pitching acumen, as Aaron Harang is proving this year. However, when you are comparing two mediocre pitchers (at best) like Belisle and Fogg, give me the guy who has proven over time he can consistently win games in the MLB. If there was a big discrepency in ERA and WHIP, then of course wins wouldn't be a factor in comparing them. But in this case, it's highly relevant IMO. Over a season, I bet Josh Fogg wins you more games than Matt Belisle. There ERAs are going to be similar but Fogg is going to pitch tougher in tough moments. Belisle will continue "pulling a Belisle" in big moments.

The only thing that Fogg has proven is that the Pirates organization was in way over it's head. He was in a position to win his token 10 games a year because they had nobody else to trot out there. 10 wins isn't any kind of speical feat given the chances. The Reds have boasted the likes of Paul Wilson and Jimmy Haynes to the 10 win promise land. Given 30+ starts every year, Belisle almost assurdely would post an average around there too.

Look, you're whole argument is posted by a bunch of circumstantial observations. Fogg is an awful pitcher. He's proven it over his entire career. He pitches bad regardless of the situation, and has shown no ability to elevate his game in key situations. His career numbers are perfectly in line with his peripheral stats. Throw him out there, you know what you'll get, horrendous pitching.

With Belisle, you at the very least have relative youth on your side, and he did some solid things last season. I'm not going to defend his pitching this year, as it's been quite poor IMO. But at the same time, if he can get back to where he was last season, there is some hope there. He's pitched all of 25 innings this year (and you seem to be forgetting that Fogg has been worse than him this year by basically any stat imaginable). I'd love to have better alternatives, but the Reds don't have many of those readily available.

And honestly, I don't give a rat's ass about wins. Seriously, no decent pitching evaluation is going to be made by using wins as one of the primary motivators. As far as I'm concerned, your whole argument deserves skepticism when you're using wins as the bottom line.

Patrick Bateman
05-25-2008, 05:31 PM
All that said, I hope Homer Bailey gets the call and we can forget about Fogg and Belisle. For all of Bailey's faults, he is still going to be more effective than either of those guys.


Homer Bailey is currently getting jacked around by AAA hitters. For all you say about Belisle, he's proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he can get AAA hitters out. Until Bailey can do that with regularity, the notion of him being any kind of improvement on this staff is fairly laughable IMO.

cincrazy
05-25-2008, 05:50 PM
Arguing over whether Josh Fogg or Matt Belisle is the better pitcher is like arguing what's more toxic if you drink it, Draino or sulfuric acid. Doesn't really matter, they're both going to kill you one way or the other.

flyer85
05-25-2008, 05:58 PM
When I saw the title I figured it was a discussion about Dunn and Jr being. The current roster is not a competitive one