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mbgrayson
05-26-2008, 12:49 AM
Dusty Baker’s Top Ten Management Mistakes Tonight

10. Lineup: Batting Patterson first yet again.

9. Using Janish to pinch hit rather than double switching him with Jerry Hairston, so we would have his glove the rest of the game.

8. When Bako pinch hit in the 17th, why not let him stay in the field for Ross, who had to be wasted?

7. Using Edinson Volquez for 1 and 2/3 innings and 39 pitches two days after he started.

6. Putting the pitcher 5th in the order in the 9th inning switch. This resulted in the Red’s best hitters being broken up by the pitcher’s spot the rest of the night.

5. Using Harang for four innings and 63 pitches on two days rest.

4. Not bunting Patterson in the 10th with Votto on 1st and one out. (Patterson popped out).

3. Double-switching Adam Dunn, our hottest hitter, out of the game in the 9th.

2. Hit and run with Freel on first, no out, and EE up in the 18th. EE had already popped out four times today before that play. If EE can’t bunt, let Freel try a straight steal.

1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who don’t have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 12:57 AM
#1 will probably be one of the dumbest moves any manager makes the entire season ... it was utterly inexplicable. Even if there weren't lefties coming up when you get to that situation you save your long man as your last reliever so he can pitch until the game ends.

Marc D
05-26-2008, 12:59 AM
Dusty Bakerís Top Ten Management Mistakes Tonight

10. Lineup: Batting Patterson first yet again.

9. Using Janish to pinch hit rather than double switching him with Jerry Hairston, so we would have his glove the rest of the game.

8. When Bako pinch hit in the 17th, why not let him stay in the field for Ross, who had to be wasted?

7. Using Edinson Volquez for 1 and 2/3 innings and 39 pitches two days after he started.

6. Putting the pitcher 5th in the order in the 9th inning switch. This resulted in the Redís best hitters being broken up by the pitcherís spot the rest of the night.

5. Using Harang for four innings and 63 pitches on two days rest.

4. Not bunting Patterson in the 10th with Votto on 1st and one out. (Patterson popped out).

3. Double-switching Adam Dunn, our hottest hitter, out of the game in the 9th.

2. Hit and run with Freel on first, no out, and EE up in the 18th. EE had already popped out four times today before that play. If EE canít bunt, let Freel try a straight steal.

1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who donít have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.

From the replay it looked like a straight steal, Freel never looked back. Regardless, Freel has gotten to the point whenever he is on base I honestly expect him to get picked or doubled off. I cannot recall an overall worse baserunner in my lifetime(his complete body of work not just todays epsiode).

Overall an absolute fiasco by Dusty but what does anyone really expect? IMO he's just as clueless as Narron, Miley or Boone.

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2008, 01:01 AM
11. Not holding someone hostage at gunpoint until Jay Bruce is brought up so we don't have to see any of Corey Patterson, and not as much of Ken Griffey Jr.

12. Batting Griffey third instead of Dunn.

mbgrayson
05-26-2008, 01:02 AM
From Fay's blog:

The Reds will regroup with tomorrow's off day and try to figure out the rotation.

"This messes it up big-time," Baker said.


No duh......

flyer85
05-26-2008, 01:03 AM
I was ambivalent about Dusty since the day he was hired. Is he the reason they lose? Generally not but he really should only manage a veteran plug and play team.

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 01:03 AM
The misuse of Bray and Fogg is really inexcusable and classic Dusty Baker. You simply don't empty your bullpen that early in the game. He got the splits wrong. He continually uses strategy by imaging an ideal way for the events to play out, completely ignoring generalities. I don't care how he handles a clubhouse. The man is a sub-replacement manager of the game itself and no amount of any other managerial skills can possibly offset it.

Key players failed to come through tonight. He didn't lose the game by himself, no doubt. But Dusty puts his players in a position to fail time after time. He talks about the players getting the small things right, but goes out and screws up the managerial small things time after time -- while screwing up the big things too.

This team would need everything to go right to be a competitor. Dusty's presence precludes that possibility.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 01:04 AM
"This messes it up big-time," Baker said.and whose fault would that be, especially since it was for nothing. Gosh and Bud Black won the game without going into his rotation, he must be a genius.

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2008, 01:06 AM
From the replay it looked like a straight steal, Freel never looked back. Regardless, Freel has gotten to the point whenever he is on base I honestly expect him to get picked or doubled off. I cannot recall an overall worse baserunner in my lifetime(his complete body of work not just todays epsiode).

Overall an absolute fiasco by Dusty but what does anyone really expect? IMO he's just as clueless as Narron, Miley or Boone.

It definitely should have been a straight steal (great point grayson, I was thinking the exact same thing) but I'm not so sure it was. EE put an extremely weak swing on the ball which leads me to believe it could have been a hit and run. Of course, that could just be EE's brain going dead as usual. Take a weak swing at a ball when Freel had the bag stolen against a rookie RHH pitcher and rookie catcher. Not sure that was on Dusty but it might have been. My first reaction was that Encarnacion messed something up. He either should have taken the pitch or he should have taken a real swing at the ball. His little girly swing might have cost us the game. (Can I still use the word girly disparagingly even though I have a daughter?)

Marc D
05-26-2008, 01:15 AM
It definitely should have been a straight steal (great point grayson, I was thinking the exact same thing) but I'm not so sure it was. EE put an extremely weak swing on the ball which leads me to believe it could have been a hit and run. Of course, that could just be EE's brain going dead as usual. Take a weak swing at a ball when Freel had the bag stolen against a rookie RHH pitcher and rookie catcher. Not sure that was on Dusty but it might have been. My first reaction was that Encarnacion messed something up. He either should have taken the pitch or he should have taken a real swing at the ball. His little girly swing might have cost us the game. (Can I still use the word girly disparagingly even though I have a daughter?)

Yeah, trying to figure out who had a mental lapse between Freel and EE is a bit of a daunting task.

Stormy
05-26-2008, 01:20 AM
The misuse of Bray and Fogg is really inexcusable and classic Dusty Baker. You simply don't empty your bullpen that early in the game.

This was the key tactical error of the night, and the repercussions will be felt for a long time. Not only did this grievous mistake affect tonight's game, it now has a detrimental property towards the games of the coming week. Via his routine inability to plan ahead and follow the most basic of strategies, Dusty has sabotaged the rotation for the upcoming series. We don't know what toll this might take on Harang or Volquez moving forward, but to burn through your entire bullpen, and then to have to burn through your top 2 starters (who were operating on very limited rest) is just unthinkable.

He botched the fundamental issue by not keeping his longest reliever(s) in reserve, then decided to utilize his starters as relievers in such a manner as if the outcome determined the pennant. I've probably never witnessed a manager who combines a stubborn adherence to doing everything his way, with such a flawed tactical understanding of the game. He's worse than I even imagined he'd be, and that's saying a great deal.

Blitz Dorsey
05-26-2008, 01:23 AM
Yeah, trying to figure out who had a mental lapse between Freel and EE is a bit of a daunting task.

You owe me a computer screen and keyboard buddy.

:D

Stormy
05-26-2008, 01:23 AM
and whose fault would that be, especially since it was for nothing. Gosh and Bud Black won the game without going into his rotation, he must be a genius.

You don't have to be a genius to out maneuver Dusty Baker. You just have to stay out of his way, and he'll corner himself eventually. Usually it takes a lot less than 18 innings, but frankly the die was cast in regulation.

Highlifeman21
05-26-2008, 01:24 AM
The Reds will regroup with tomorrow's off day and try to figure out the rotation.

"This messes it up big-time," Baker said.


Might see a token start or 2 from some AAA guys, maybe even 1 from that David Bailey chap.

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 01:26 AM
Personally, I would rather have had Paul Bako on the mound tonight than run out Volquez on such short rest. Sometimes there are things more important than the outcome a single game.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 01:32 AM
11. Using Cordero in a 7-2 victory
12. Not walking Adrian Gonzalez

edit: #11 wasn't Baker, but whatever...

Highlifeman21
05-26-2008, 01:34 AM
Personally, I would rather have had Paul Bako on the mound tonight than run out Volquez on such short rest. Sometimes there are things more important than the outcome a single game.

I was just thinking the same thing.

On one hand, I wanna like the fact that The Dusty's attempting to manage his chess pieces around the board for the W, but on the other hand, the Reds aren't good and this one W won't help us in the grand scheme of things. The fact that The Dusty attempted to manage for the W, and we got the L, and he depleted our rotation (not our bullpen, but our rotation... hats off to The Dusty for accomplishing that task) just compounds bad on top of worse (or something like that).

I could understand emptying your entire bench and using every arm except for yesterday's starter if you're a good team and this one game might actually matter, but the Reds aren't a good team, and this game didn't matter.

George Anderson
05-26-2008, 01:34 AM
Maybe this is a crazy thought but Dusty seemed to manage this game like it was the seventh game of the WS. Anyone think maybe this is an indication that Dusty thinks his job is on the line or was this just another game where Dusty showed lousy judgement?

Ron Madden
05-26-2008, 01:37 AM
Maybe this is a crazy thought but Dusty seemed to manage this game like it was the seventh game of the WS. Anyone think maybe this is an indication that Dusty thinks his job is on the line or was this just another game where Dusty showed lousy judgement?

Nahh, it's just Dusty being Dusty.

;)

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 01:38 AM
Maybe this is a crazy thought but Dusty seemed to manage this game like it was the seventh game of the WS. Anyone think maybe this is an indication that Dusty thinks his job is on the line or was this just another game where Dusty showed lousy judgement?

As painful as it sounds, I don't see Dusty going anywhere. He's making too much money for too many years going forward. I suspect the earliest the Reds would fire Dusty would be after the 2009 season or perhaps during the middle of 2010. But no matter what happens I expect him to be around through 2009.

mbgrayson
05-26-2008, 01:41 AM
The only two games the Reds won on this road trip were the two games Dusty was suspended. Interesting coincidence, right?

Unassisted
05-26-2008, 01:52 AM
I was listening to this one on XM on my way to the Spurs game tonight. The Reds were up by two after the top of the 11th and I figured they had it well in hand when I parked the car at the AT&T Center. Imagine my surprise when I heard the score and number of innings on my way home!

I was hopping mad at Dusty for subbing out Dunn in the 9th. Once I heard how he was using the pitching staff to audition for manager of World Series Game 7, I was fit to be tied. I'm trying not to think too hard about the rest of the list in the OP, since that'll ruin my good mood after seeing the Spurs roll the Lakers. :(

Spring~Fields
05-26-2008, 02:32 AM
Dusty Baker’s Top Ten Management Mistakes Tonight

10. Lineup: Batting Patterson first yet again.

9. Using Janish to pinch hit rather than double switching him with Jerry Hairston, so we would have his glove the rest of the game.

3. Double-switching Adam Dunn, our hottest hitter, out of the game in the 9th.

1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who don’t have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.

10. Lineup: Batting Patterson first yet again.

Becomes number one for me, if the leadoff batter on this team had produced a couple hits or walks, there might have been another run or two scored.

This leadoff batter is setting the wrong tone from the start of the game. Bakers refusal to bat Patterson down in the seven or eight hole is taking away chances to get runners on base and to score, giving the other team an advantage to start each game. The absurdity of not using his higher on base percentage players at the top of the order to set the table for the higher slugging percentage players is beyond comprehension. It would be one thing if Baker had proven that his method worked, but on the contrary it continues to contribute to the losses of some games where a loss might have been avoidable.

Hairston or Freel could have played center and one of them could have lead off, I don’t think it would take much imagination to think that one of them might have been more productive at leadoff than Patterson and suitable in center, which could have completely changed the complexion of the game. All though they might only lead off once in the game I have to believe that Freel or Hairston might have been counted on to produce in other at bats to follow.

9. Using Janish to pinch hit rather than double switching him with Jerry Hairston, so we would have his glove the rest of the game.

Becomes number two for me, because I feel that the slick fielding shortstop should be starting over Hairston at short to begin with and that a good shortstop may have made what looks to be routine plays that could have adversely changed the outcome of the game for the Padres before the number one mistake became the major fiasco that it did, that of not using Bray first over Fogg that then led to the other mistakes on the list after that point in the game. Bat Janish down in the order.

Baker on one hand uses Patterson for a defensive position in center and then turns around and uses Hairston at shortstop a major defensive position and sit’s the better fielder Janish. He is sacrificing the team in lieu of his philosophy or to get Patterson a chance again and again to support his initial reasoning and decision to have Patterson on this team to begin with, at which Baker has failed.

1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who don’t have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.

Number 3 for me, major snafu by Baker that led to or contributed to each mistake that followed after it, or might be yet to be seen coming up. Bray should have been used first over Fogg. Baker never should have used Harang or Volquez in this game, it became just one game, and Baker by making the decision to use Volquez and Harang the two best pitchers on the team may have put the next two to three games at risk.

Stormy
05-26-2008, 02:52 AM
Very nice post, Springfield. Regardless of the order of importance, several of the mistakes are so egregious, so emminently avoidable, and so redundant, that it just makes you want to :bang:

Unfortunately, I think we're going to be compelled to watch Dusty Baker's dysfunctional managerial style for a long time to come. I just hope that a game like this makes Walt intercede with some common sense mandates about personnel usage (i.e. Bruce as everyday CF, Patterson's league worst OBP in the leadoff spot is history, the key arms on this team are to be protected and are more important than any single game (against an opponent who is 15 below .500) etc...

mth123
05-26-2008, 03:08 AM
The listing is a good one. I think the Bray/Fogg fiasco was a primary culprit in the loss. Batting Paterson #1 has been a problem all year and removing Dunn when there are so many other guys to choose from is an issue for me. The Harang and Volquez problems are rooted in the Bray/Fogg screw-up.

As some one mentioned, Pitching Cordero on Saturday when the team was up by 7-2 in the ninth may have been a root cause of the blown save today. This game could have been over after nine innings.

I have been "wait and see" on Baker. I know he does some things that are downright awful and leading Patterson off and his general over rating of speed andatheticism at the expense of actual baseball results has continued to bother me. For me, that alone wasn't enough to scream for his head because most Managers in the game today would probably do the same things. But these tactical errors tonight have pushed me over the edge. Dusty Baker is a huge part of the problem. I really think that this team has most of the pieces needed to be very competitive and better deployment could make a big difference.

Spring~Fields
05-26-2008, 03:21 AM
Very nice post, Springfield. Regardless of the order of importance, several of the mistakes are so egregious, so emminently avoidable, and so redundant, that it just makes you want to :bang:

Unfortunately, I think we're going to be compelled to watch Dusty Baker's dysfunctional managerial style for a long time to come. I just hope that a game like this makes Walt intercede with some common sense mandates about personnel usage (i.e. Bruce as everyday CF, Patterson's league worst OBP in the leadoff spot is history, the key arms on this team are to be protected and are more important than any single game (against an opponent who is 15 below .500) etc...

That is the core problem with this guy, because Bakers mistakes, we can clearly isolate on them, over and over, those terms discern it very nicely for me. They are his errant choices and decision that are so redundant that they do become egregious because they are something that this manager can do about, as it is well within his control of his choices and decisions, thus making it eminently avoidable on a higher percentage of time.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 03:49 AM
Bray / Fogg was inexcusable -- even if you don't buy the L/R splits at all, if your longman is still sitting in extra innings, he should be the LAST person out of the pen and the game should be given to him if the rest of the bullpen gets burned.

I mean, that's frigging baseball 101. That's why you HAVE a longman in the first place -- bail out the starters when they don't have it, throw 4-5 innings in relief in an extra-inning game if needed.

Just indefensibly stupid. Everything else Baker has done this season has been answering the math problems wrong. This move is more akin to writing an essay in response to the question of "2+2 = ?"

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 03:51 AM
Bray / Fogg was inexcusable -- even if you don't buy the L/R splits at all, if your longman is still sitting in extra innings, he should be the LAST person out of the pen and the game should be given to him if the rest of the bullpen gets burned.

I mean, that's frigging baseball 101. That's why you HAVE a longman in the first place -- bail out the starters when they don't have it, throw 4-5 innings in relief in an extra-inning game if needed.

Just indefensibly stupid. Everything else Baker has done this season has been answering the math problems wrong. This move is more akin to writing an essay in response to the question of "2+2 = ?"
And that essay said 4 nowhere in it either....

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 03:53 AM
And that essay said 4 nowhere in it either....

No, and it incorrectly stated that the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand was what started the Vietnam War.

Deepred05
05-26-2008, 04:19 AM
Just got back from the game. I sat two rows behind the Reds dugout. Unbelievable seats. I really got the feeling that the Reds gave up at the end by pitching to Gonzalez instead of Kouzmanoff. I also think that Freel was trying a straight steal instead of a hit and run. David Ross, showed some disgust after that play and it looked to me like he was glaring at Encarnacion. Colorful language could be heard coming from the dugout, but I do not know who it was.

Incidently, you could tell Ross was getting exhausted. I still don't know what happened on that interference play. Know one argued the call, but it looked to me like the batter struck out and interfered with Ross. No biggie I guess. I liked Ross, on every return to the dugout he threw a ball to any one wearing a Reds cap, mostly kids. Hatcher too, had a cult following "shooting" baseballs like they were basketballs to the kids.

Great time and a great game, although I don't think the wife is going to be attending any more games with me for a while. I had her convinced that we could be a part of history if the game could last 4 more innings. Not sure if that is correct or not, but it is all I could come up with on short notice!!:beerme:

redsrule2500
05-26-2008, 07:14 AM
I agree. The management aspect was pathetic, especially taking out Dunn in place of the pitcher and the pathetic Patterson leading off.

Disgusting management by Dusty Baker.

redsrule2500
05-26-2008, 07:14 AM
Just got back from the game. I sat two rows behind the Reds dugout. Unbelievable seats. I really got the feeling that the Reds gave up at the end by pitching to Gonzalez instead of Kouzmanoff. I also think that Freel was trying a straight steal instead of a hit and run. David Ross, showed some disgust after that play and it looked to me like he was glaring at Encarnacion. Colorful language could be heard coming from the dugout, but I do not know who it was.

Incidently, you could tell Ross was getting exhausted. I still don't know what happened on that interference play. Know one argued the call, but it looked to me like the batter struck out and interfered with Ross. No biggie I guess. I liked Ross, on every return to the dugout he threw a ball to any one wearing a Reds cap, mostly kids. Hatcher too, had a cult following "shooting" baseballs like they were basketballs to the kids.

Great time and a great game, although I don't think the wife is going to be attending any more games with me for a while. I had her convinced that we could be a part of history if the game could last 4 more innings. Not sure if that is correct or not, but it is all I could come up with on short notice!!:beerme:

ha! I think I saw you, did you have a Reds hat on?

PuffyPig
05-26-2008, 09:39 AM
Dusty Bakerís Top Ten Management Mistakes Tonight

10. Lineup: Batting Patterson first yet again.

9. Using Janish to pinch hit rather than double switching him with Jerry Hairston, so we would have his glove the rest of the game.

8. When Bako pinch hit in the 17th, why not let him stay in the field for Ross, who had to be wasted?

7. Using Edinson Volquez for 1 and 2/3 innings and 39 pitches two days after he started.

6. Putting the pitcher 5th in the order in the 9th inning switch. This resulted in the Redís best hitters being broken up by the pitcherís spot the rest of the night.

5. Using Harang for four innings and 63 pitches on two days rest.

4. Not bunting Patterson in the 10th with Votto on 1st and one out. (Patterson popped out).

3. Double-switching Adam Dunn, our hottest hitter, out of the game in the 9th.

2. Hit and run with Freel on first, no out, and EE up in the 18th. EE had already popped out four times today before that play. If EE canít bunt, let Freel try a straight steal.

1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who donít have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.


No. 1 is likley the one that cost us the game.

Some of your don't make any sense, and it's probably because you don't really undestand the double switch. You double swith at a time when you bring in a new pitcher as a way of pushing back when the pitcher will hit. If Bako had stayed in for Ross, the pitcher would have been hitting in Ros's spot, which was very soon. Saving Janish to double swith? That opportunity never rose,as you would beed the sutuation where Hairston made one of the last outs when we were switching pitchers.

Using Harang and Volquez was because there was no one else. But that's Baker's fault becuase of misusing Fogg.

Carlin and Gerut not having any hits vs. lefties all year? Not really fair, as Carlin hadn't faced a lefty all year, and Gerut was a PH, and likely wouldn't have batted. YOu'd rather have a lefty face Giles based on historical stats.

You don't bunt Patterson with one out, unless it's for a basehit.

Really, the decision to go with Fogg first was monumental and cost us the game.The rest is window dressing.

blumj
05-26-2008, 09:55 AM
Really, the decision to go with Fogg first was monumental and cost us the game.The rest is window dressing.
You know what? It doesn't even matter that it cost them the game. If he leaves Fogg in long enough to lose the game right there in the 11th, okay, you're not happy about it, but it's a regular season game in May. It's the lack of perspective that's so stunning, and frightening.

Redhook
05-26-2008, 10:13 AM
You know what? It doesn't even matter that it cost them the game. If he leaves Fogg in long enough to lose the game right there in the 11th, okay, you're not happy about it, but it's a regular season game in May. It's the lack of perspective that's so stunning, and frightening.

Exactly. Not only did that decision probably cost the Reds that game, but how many games did it cost the team for the rest of year? How are Harang and Volquez going to be affected by this? We're in late May and Dusty is pulling out garbage moves like this. I'm flabbergasted.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 10:27 AM
If Dusty wanted a righty reliever in eleventh he should have had one available. But instead he had Josh Fogg, who is not a relief pitcher, hasn't been effective, and has no reason to be in this bullpen. Maybe as a fifth starter he could be decent, but he does not belong in this current role. He hasn't relieved in many years.

This notion that it's good to have a sixth starter is nonsense. He hardly pitches, the need for him to bail out youngsters in the third inning almost never happens. And he deprives you of a real relief pitcher for situations when one is needed.

If you need an emergency starter, keep him at AAA. Yes, you want some relievers who can go multiple innings, but they should be relievers, guys used to pitching in tight spots for an inning or two.

I'm not letting Baker off the hook, his removal of Dunn was highly suspect. Dunn is playing well offensively and not badly at all in left field. And I really do think the manager believes Griffey is still 25 years old. At age 38 Griff played 27 innings in 24 hours while Dunn sat. Giles didn't sit. Gonzalez didn't sit.

Reds should consider three pitching moves. Maloney for Belisle. Majewski for Fogg (yes Maj has pitched very well at AAA of late and should get a shot in middle relief) and possibly Herrera for Lincoln.

GAC
05-26-2008, 11:05 AM
Multiple mistakes sprang forth (were given birth) by one monumental one..... hiring him!

Go to the source..... smell the valet! :lol:

Tony Cloninger
05-26-2008, 11:17 AM
Patterson leading off is Numero uno.......the fact that he cannot drop Griffey down to 5th or 6th......Phillips to 5th/6th against RH pitchers.
His complete non-use of Fogg and when he finally does....he barely used him at all in that inning where bray should have begun the inning.

What I do not get is this mental stuff people are worried about for Volquez?

How is yesterday's game such a mental devastation? He lost a game...and it's not the first time he has done that. He has pitched worse than this and survived when he was with TEX.
He is getting 4 days rest now. So it's not like he threw tons of pitches and is going to be taxed. He is emotional like Soto used to be but not a mental case who cannot deal with things.

I am sure he will have some bad games in the future....that's not saying anything mind bending ....every pitcher has bad games. To correlate this game with a bad game in the future is really pushing it and just looking for something that is not there.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:24 AM
Having a guy like Belisle, who can't even go 5 innings anymore, isn't helping matters either.

There's a long chain of circumstances that led to this loss. PuffyPig is right that the one weak link in this chain is Fogg, and is the most glaring, but to ignore all the other ones along the way just allows for a framing of the game according to whim and subjectivity.

This loss was a steaming bowel movement of pathetic pitching (aside from Harang).

edabbs44
05-26-2008, 11:25 AM
I can't believe Dusty did all these things also:



Gave up HR to Kouz in 8th
Gave up HR to Hariston in 9th
Got shut down by a BP pitcher for 6 innings
Made a key E in the 18th
Whiffed with two men on in the 9th
Popped up with two men on in the 4th
Whiffed with the bases loaded in the 17th


Is Dusty a good manager? I'm gonna say no.
Did I like the signing? Hell no.
Do I think they should be paying any manager $10MM+? A resounding no.

But to nitpick last night is not very fair to him. The game thread was crazy last night. Nuts.

Some wanted to forfeit the game. Could you imagine? I think they were serious.

Others thought Fogg should have pitched like Banks did. Josh Fogg. Seriously. Multiple innings. And when I mentioned that the game would have probably ended 7 times if he threw 6 innings, I was told that it would have been good since then Harang and Volquez wouldn't have had to pitch.

If Baker was able to tell the future, then maybe he would have managed a little differently. But he was trying to win the game.

It is extremely fair to rip on some of his moves, but last night was the kind of freakish game that causes logic to fly out the window. It happens. Move on.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 11:30 AM
Dusty should have managed it the way Black did. Go through your pen and use your long reliever as the last guy out of the pen and he pitches until you win or lose. What you absolutely don't do is start burning your starting rotation.

mth123
05-26-2008, 11:32 AM
I'm a believer that the blown save in the 9th was born in using the closer with a 5 run lead the night before. I understand he was all warmed up, but why put him out there and let him throw 25 pitches. If he was warm, he could have come in had some one like Fogg or Lincoln gotten in trouble.

The terrible management that occurred in this game doesn't stand alone. Terrible decisions all year had an influence.

I agree that Belisle contributed mightily to the problem and I've reached a point of being ready to turn the page on him. But the Reds have bigger problems. I think the Manager, the Catcher and the RF are all bigger problems at this point. Weathers continues to make me very nervous about the 8th inning as well.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:35 AM
I'm a believer that the blown save in the 9th was born in using the closer with a 5 run lead the night before. I understand he was all warmed up, but why put him out there and let him throw 25 pitches. If he was warm, he could have come in had some one like Fogg or Lincoln gotten in trouble.

The terrible management that occurred in this game doesn't stand alone. Terrible decisions all year had an influence.

I agree that Belisle contributed mightily to the problem and I've reached a point of being ready to turn the page on him. But the Reds have bigger problems. I think the Manager, the Catcher and the RF are all bigger problems at this point. Weathers continues to make me very nervous about the 8th inning as well.

I'm really nervous about spending 46 million on a guy who can't go one inning on back to back to back nights. Talk about peeing away 46 million.

edabbs44
05-26-2008, 11:38 AM
Dusty should have managed it the way Black did. Go through your pen and use your long reliever as the last guy out of the pen and he pitches until you win or lose. What you absolutely don't do is start burning your starting rotation.

That I can deal with. It is a logical thought. However, the team would have had less of a chance to win. I wonder if Dusty just hates Fogg so much that he cannot stomach him pitching for more than an inning at a time.

However, I think there has been a little overreaction with the "damage" he did. Doing this once in a season probably won't decimate the rotation with injuries. If this became a regular occurance, then I'd be a bit more concerned. But other teams have done this before.

mth123
05-26-2008, 11:38 AM
I'm really nervous about spending 46 million on a guy who can't go one inning on back to back to back nights. Talk about peeing away 46 million.

Three nights in a row. Why push that if it isn't needed? Until the defense is improved, all the pitchers throw more pitches than needed and the cumulative effect is starting to show. August could be really ugly.

edabbs44
05-26-2008, 11:39 AM
I'm really nervous about spending 46 million on a guy who can't go one inning on back to back to back nights. Talk about peeing away 46 million.

Yeah, Dusty got blamed by some for bringing him in for a third day in a row earlier this season when he blew a save. I said the same exact thing.

Tony Cloninger
05-26-2008, 11:39 AM
there is no objectivity anymore.....the complete Baker hatred has come out in full force right now and there is no way to stop it now. The train is rolling and from here on in.....any and every move will be analyzed and if it goes wrong then you can continue to see more of the same.

We know the obvious ones....and I agree with the Patterson issue...the batting order issue...and his lack of usage of Fogg begs to ask why is he here anyways? But now it is open season on all his moves...no matter what ..he is done here as far as doing anything good in any way.

Forget about moving on.....any start that Volquez has for the rest of the year...this game will be referenced as the reason he either pitched bad OR Baker was lucky he was not ruined. Same with Harang.
Any time he double switches Dunn....which he has done almost every time. I DO NOT always agree with it.....especially when he is hot now.....but this game it did not work out.....but people wait until it does not work out to pounce.

oneupper
05-26-2008, 11:40 AM
Lots of good points made here.

I agree that once Fogg started the 11th (which was a mistake in itself), that should have been the last pitching change. It was the long man's game to win or lose.

However, I got to thinking why would Dusty go with Fogg over Bray if both were available to start the 11th?

Here's what I believe it was:

Fogg, the veteran "deserved" the save opp, while Bray has not yet paid his dues to "earn" that opp. Crazy as it seems, I actually think Dusty thinks that way.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 11:40 AM
However, I think there has been a little overreaction with the "damage" he did. Doing this once in a season probably won't decimate the rotation with injuries. we really don't know but is taking even the slightest risk of a problem with Harang or Volquez worth it?

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:41 AM
Three nights in a row. Why push that if it isn't needed? Until the defense is improved, all the pitchers throw more pitches than needed and the cumulative effect is starting to show. August could be really ugly.

Is it really "pushing it" though?

edabbs44
05-26-2008, 11:41 AM
we really don't know but is taking even the slightest risk of a problem with Harang or Volquez worth it?

Were they due to have side sessions yesterday anyway? Just a thought.

Yachtzee
05-26-2008, 11:47 AM
Were they due to have side sessions yesterday anyway? Just a thought.

Side sessions aren't quite the same as live games. Dusty needs to remember that, at this point in the season, it's still a marathon, not a sprint.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 11:55 AM
Were they due to have side sessions yesterday anyway? Just a thought.the problem is you can't leave your starters out there indefinitely and you don't know how long the game might actually go. Harang pitched 4, suppose Votto make the play and the game goes on. Volquez could have pitched one more inning, two a most ... then the Reds would have had to use Cueto and he was the last player period.

Chip R
05-26-2008, 11:56 AM
Here's what I believe it was:

Fogg, the veteran "deserved" the save opp, while Bray has not yet paid his dues to "earn" that opp. Crazy as it seems, I actually think Dusty thinks that way.


I think you are absolutely right.

I think one decision that Dusty did (or did not) make was to pull Belisle earlier than he did. Actually, I would have pinch hit for him when he came up in the 4th (?) with runners on base. Even if you think that was too quick, as soon as he got guys on in the 5th, I would have pulled him. But that's Dusty in a nutshell. He wanted Belisle to go 5 so he could get a win. I understand trying to do the best for your players' general welfare but it's getting in the way of winning games.

mth123
05-26-2008, 12:01 PM
Is it really "pushing it" though?

Cordero has been one of the players actually performing for the most part on this team. Going three days in a row on this team that automatically inflates the pitch counts is pushing it IMO.

Unless they need work from lack of use, the high leverage pitchers on this team should be saved for high leverage situations. Allocating low leverage innings to lesser pitchers is pretty basic stuff.

membengal
05-26-2008, 12:06 PM
To call yesterday a nightmare is to do injustice to the concept of nightmares. Like going to hell, knowing you are going to hell, and fully aware of the every painful moment of the trip.

Baseball fever in Cincy. Catch it.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 12:11 PM
[QUOTE=mth123;1644079]
I agree that Belisle contributed mightily to the problem and I've reached a point of being ready to turn the page on him. But the Reds have bigger problems. QUOTE]


Sorry to disagree so strongly, but I do. The Reds don't have any bigger problems.

A starting pitcher who has allowed 47 hits in 29 innings with a 7.28 ERA is a very big problem. The same guy who last year alloweed 212 hits in 177 innings. This kind of pitching kills your bullpen. It messes up one game out of five. It causes managers to skip his turn so that the other starters don't get more rest.

Let's look at yesterday in some context. End of west coast road trip. Guys are tired from all the travel. Bullpen relied upon heavily during trip -- no real easy games.

What you don't need is to fall behind by three immediately and to trail 4-1 early.

I cannot figure out why so many here, and in Reds management, stick with this pitcher. I'm sure he tries hard and is a nice guy, but he just gets clobbered repeatedly.

If the Reds don't make a change in his spot, then they really aren't trying to win. No matter what they say. Give some young kid a chance if there's nobody else, but this has to stop.

membengal
05-26-2008, 12:12 PM
In Dusty's defense, when you are trying to win Game 7 of the NLCS, you have to pull out all the stops...

Oh. wait.

Rounding Third
05-26-2008, 12:22 PM
Bill James just recently started exploring "Closer Fatigue," and the effects of using a closer, or I guess any reliever for that matter, for multiple days in a row. I haven't read much into it, but Cordero is the most fatigued closer in the league as of right now according to him.

mth123
05-26-2008, 12:26 PM
[QUOTE=mth123;1644079]
I agree that Belisle contributed mightily to the problem and I've reached a point of being ready to turn the page on him. But the Reds have bigger problems. QUOTE]


Sorry to disagree so strongly, but I do. The Reds don't have any bigger problems.

A starting pitcher who has allowed 47 hits in 29 innings with a 7.28 ERA is a very big problem. The same guy who last year alloweed 212 hits in 177 innings. This kind of pitching kills your bullpen. It messes up one game out of five. It causes managers to skip his turn so that the other starters don't get more rest.

Let's look at yesterday in some context. End of west coast road trip. Guys are tired from all the travel. Bullpen relied upon heavily during trip -- no real easy games.

What you don't need is to fall behind by three immediately and to trail 4-1 early.

I cannot figure out why so many here, and in Reds management, stick with this pitcher. I'm sure he tries hard and is a nice guy, but he just gets clobbered repeatedly.

If the Reds don't make a change in his spot, then they really aren't trying to win. No matter what they say. Give some young kid a chance if there's nobody else, but this has to stop.


I agree that its time to try something different, but most teams have iffy guys in the 5th rotation spot. What sets the Reds apart?

1. A Judy hitting statue playing the worst RF in memory and hitting in the 3 hole when he can't seem to reach the fence even when he hits the ball on the button.

2. A .240 OBP in the lead -off spot who almost has to be in there (but not leading off) to try and offset the defensive awfulness of the RF.

3. A bullpen with no one who really seems capable of stepping up to take command of the 8th inning role.

4. A catching spot that was intended to rely on a defensive specialist catcher who can't play defense and during his last two starts has allowed runs with awful plays at the plate. The alternatives are a career journeyman back-up who seems to be the best of the lot and a guy who can't play at all and is even a worse defender than the other guys.

5. A Manager with no conception of the strengths and weaknesses of his players and seems to slot them based on what he hopes for them to do and not what they actually are likely to do.

I think those problems set the Reds apart from a number of other teams who also have pretty awful pitching manning the 5th rotation spot. When it comes to actually competing, Belisle is not the relative disadvantage that the problems listed above are.

mbgrayson
05-26-2008, 12:28 PM
Were they due to have side sessions yesterday anyway? Just a thought.

I wondered that too. What worries me is that if they were, they might have already done them. They wouldn't wait until AFTER the game on a getaway day.

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 12:43 PM
Personally, I would rather have had Paul Bako on the mound tonight than run out Volquez on such short rest. Sometimes there are things more important than the outcome a single game.

Exactly. I said the same thing and I'm serious. No way do I pitch Volquez in that situation.

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 12:48 PM
Here's what I believe it was:

Fogg, the veteran "deserved" the save opp, while Bray has not yet paid his dues to "earn" that opp. Crazy as it seems, I actually think Dusty thinks that way.

While it certainly is just conjecture, I agree with this hypothesis. It seems that Dusty is always managing the clubhouse first and foremost. Game outcomes are secondary -- and that's due to him not having a clear vision on what matters in the games. Experience and clubhouse harmony trump performance because he doesn't have much of a feeling for actually measuring performance.

westofyou
05-26-2008, 12:50 PM
Dusty should have managed it the way Black did. Go through your pen and use your long reliever as the last guy out of the pen and he pitches until you win or lose. What you absolutely don't do is start burning your starting rotation.

Two hitters, Bray needed to get those two LH's including one who has a slugging percentage below .400 vs LH's and another who has a .245 ob% against LH's

It was a gamble, Giles has a .457 slging percentage against RH's his OB% is a wash against RH/LH.

Bray had 2 jobs.. limit Giles to less than 2 bases and get Adrian out... he accomplished one.

It was gamble, the gamble was that he'd get it done and he didn't... for his career LH's hit .309/.377/.525/.902 against Josh Fogg... I can't fault Dusty for trying that move.

Even if he has to juggle the rotation because of the fallout.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 01:26 PM
Two hitters, Bray needed to get those two LH's including one who has a slugging percentage below .400 vs LH's and another who has a .245 ob% against LH's

It was a gamble, Giles has a .457 slging percentage against RH's his OB% is a wash against RH/LH.

Bray had 2 jobs.. limit Giles to less than 2 bases and get Adrian out... he accomplished one.

It was gamble, the gamble was that he'd get it done and he didn't... for his career LH's hit .309/.377/.525/.902 against Josh Fogg... I can't fault Dusty for trying that move.

Even if he has to juggle the rotation because of the fallout.Bray should have started the inning is the simple answer.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 01:39 PM
I agree that its time to try something different, but most teams have iffy guys in the 5th rotation spot. What sets the Reds apart?

1. A Judy hitting statue playing the worst RF in memory and hitting in the 3 hole when he can't seem to reach the fence even when he hits the ball on the button.

2. A .240 OBP in the lead -off spot who almost has to be in there (but not leading off) to try and offset the defensive awfulness of the RF.

3. A bullpen with no one who really seems capable of stepping up to take command of the 8th inning role.

4. A catching spot that was intended to rely on a defensive specialist catcher who can't play defense and during his last two starts has allowed runs with awful plays at the plate. The alternatives are a career journeyman back-up who seems to be the best of the lot and a guy who can't play at all and is even a worse defender than the other guys.

5. A Manager with no conception of the strengths and weaknesses of his players and seems to slot them based on what he hopes for them to do and not what they actually are likely to do.

I think those problems set the Reds apart from a number of other teams who also have pretty awful pitching manning the 5th rotation spot. When it comes to actually competing, Belisle is not the relative disadvantage that the problems listed above are.


Relative disadvantage? How about comparing him to other Reds pitchers who play with the same factors. Any other one who has allowed 47 hits in 29 innings?

I've heard the fifth starter excuse, I've heard all the fielding independent stats, line drive rates, all the justifications for keeping this pitcher. The bottom line for Reds fans is that sometimes when it isn't working you let go.

If you haven't had enough, then enjoy next Saturday when he faces Atlanta. Me, I'd rather give Maloney a shot.

westofyou
05-26-2008, 01:51 PM
Bray should have started the inning is the simple answer.

True... but he had pitched the night before too, that fact alone distorts the simplicity of the decision.

mth123
05-26-2008, 01:55 PM
Relative disadvantage? How about comparing him to other Reds pitchers who play with the same factors. Any other one who has allowed 47 hits in 29 innings?

I've heard the fifth starter excuse, I've heard all the fielding independent stats, line drive rates, all the justifications for keeping this pitcher. The bottom line for Reds fans is that sometimes when it isn't working you let go.

If you haven't had enough, then enjoy next Saturday when he faces Atlanta. Should be fun.

Not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying few teams have a 5th starter that is much an improvement over what Belisle is. We're talking about a 5th starter here. I can't name one who is enough of an upgrade over Belisle that would improve the team more than upgrading those other problems. IMO there isn't a number 5 guy in baseball that can have the impact that replacing JR, upgrading Patterson, fixing the bullpen or getting a real major league catcher would. Those guys do something every day to help the team lose. Seems nuts to argue degrees of bad at this point. I want to upgrade Belisle too, but if I could only do one thing to imorove this team, I'd replace Jr. If given a second choice, I'd get a new catcher. A 3rd choice? I'd go with a power arm for the 8th inning. A 4th choice? I'd upgrade CF. Upgarding the 5th rotation spot would help and is on the to do list. Its just not as urgent as those other things IMO.

For what its worth, I'm ready to give Matt Maloney a try and send Belisle to the pen of deal him off for something else. But Maloney is an unproven starter as well and I really don't expect much better.

flyer85
05-26-2008, 02:22 PM
True... but he had pitched the night before too, that fact alone distorts the simplicity of the decision.
cordero had pitched the previous two days and it didn't keep Dusty from pitching him for 2 innings

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 02:38 PM
Let's face it: the Reds aren't just "iffy" in the 5th spot; they're iffy in the 3-5 slots.

Bullpens get overused, leads aren't held, offense looks bad because they aren't putting up the 10 runs necessary to win.

Bad team. But awful pitching.

Davey Johnson would make different decisions with this team, but he'd still have the same record.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 02:42 PM
Maybe it's better I was at a kegger rather than watching last night's marathon...until today, at least :D

Spring~Fields
05-26-2008, 02:53 PM
Bullpens get overused, leads aren't held, offense looks bad because they aren't putting up the 10 runs necessary to win.



Looks, the offense "looks" bad because Baker does not construct the lineup correctly giving them the highest probability of scoring percentage wise. Is there any question that Patterson has lead off most games despite his inability to produce? Is there any question that having an aged Griffey batting third and Dunn down in the order is less than desirable? Is there any question that the higher on base percentage players should be batting higher in the order?

Is there any question that the better defensive players should be playing shortstop over a player that Baker admits not knowing if he can play shortsop in Hairston over a Janish? Is there any question that Griffey should be taken out for defensive replacement reasons in games?

Is there any question that a poor defense and a weakened offense conditions the pitchers that they have to be near perfect while a poor defense backs them up causes negative outcomes?

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 03:00 PM
offense looks bad because they aren't putting up the 10 runs necessary to win.


No, the offense looks bad because the offense is bad. The Reds are 11th in the NL in runs scored, slightly ahead of Milwaukee who has scored five less runs than the Reds and have played one less game. The other teams behind the Reds are the Giants, Nationals, Padres, and Rockies and they've had a ton of injuries or else they wouldn't be this low. The Reds offense has been horrible and it's one of the main reasons the Reds are 23-28.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 03:04 PM
No, the offense looks bad because the offense is bad. The Reds are 11th in the NL in runs scored, slightly ahead of Milwaukee who has scored five less runs than the Reds and have played one less game. The other teams behind the Reds are the Giants, Nationals, Padres, and Rockies and they've had a ton of injuries or else they wouldn't be this low. The Reds offense has been horrible and it's one of the main reasons the Reds are 23-28.

No, the Giants, Nationals, and Padres are just really bad at hitting...

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 03:06 PM
No, the Giants, Nationals, and Padres are just really bad at hitting...

I'm talking about the Rockies. They've had some injuries on offense.

Will M
05-26-2008, 03:24 PM
1. Baker is not an X&Os type manager. He is supposed to get the best out of his players. Yet the Reds don't have enough talent to do this.

He also seems to place guys in spots where their weaknesses are exposed.
ie Patterson as leadoff hitter. Jr hitting 3rd even against lefties.
Phillips hitting 4th even vs righties.

2. one out of five starts is a guy with an ERA of 7.28 & a CAREER BAA of .302

3. No catcher. Bako has of course reverted to form. He was fine to sign to a minor league deal and is the best defensive catcher the Reds have. But when the Reds try to rely on him to be an everyday catcher it doesn't work.
Ross can't catch or hit. His only real strength is stopping the running game.
Javy is a DH/pinch hitter.

4. Jr can hit or play defense.

5. Patterson is fine as a 4th/5th outfielder. His defense is great. He obviously hasn't been able to hit at all.

6. The bench is poorly constructed.

Unfortunately Baker ain't going anywhere so Jocketty better start fixing what he can. Move Jr. Call up Bruce. Get rid of the truly awful pitchers. Get a catcher and a centerfielder.etc. He has a LOT of work to do.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 04:30 PM
Not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying few teams have a 5th starter that is much an improvement over what Belisle is. We're talking about a 5th starter here. I can't name one who is enough of an upgrade over Belisle that would improve the team more than upgrading those other problems. IMO there isn't a number 5 guy in baseball that can have the impact that replacing JR, upgrading Patterson, fixing the bullpen or getting a real major league catcher would. Those guys do something every day to help the team lose. Seems nuts to argue degrees of bad at this point. I want to upgrade Belisle too, but if I could only do one thing to imorove this team, I'd replace Jr. If given a second choice, I'd get a new catcher. A 3rd choice? I'd go with a power arm for the 8th inning. A 4th choice? I'd upgrade CF. Upgarding the 5th rotation spot would help and is on the to do list. Its just not as urgent as those other things IMO.

For what its worth, I'm ready to give Matt Maloney a try and send Belisle to the pen of deal him off for something else. But Maloney is an unproven starter as well and I really don't expect much better.

I think people use the "fifth starter" thing as a crutch for Belisle. This year's real fifth starter is Cueto. He is 22. He should be babied. His turn perhaps skipped once in awhile. And he's performed like a fifth starter -- but one with tremendous upside. A guy like that -- who is essentially on a learning year -- that's an ok fifth starter, even with a 5 plus ERA.

As far as priorities are concerned, there is no bigger one than starting pitching. If the Reds don't have five good ones, then they should use the slots for kids with high upside rather than throwing Fogg or Belisle out there. Because ineffective starting pitchers result in early deficits, catch-up ball, overuse of the bullpen, and generally creates a losing environment.

Reds1
05-26-2008, 04:42 PM
dummest mistake not being able to score for 9 innings and using your best pitchers to get you there. Come on! 1 run. Why can't this team get hot the same time. EE good now bad, Dunn bad now good. 1 or 2 hot players isn't getting the run in. Need a few more to get it going or at least stay consistant and not these slumps. Too many holes in this offense. Touch game to lose here.

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 04:47 PM
dummest mistake not being able to score for 9 innings and using your best pitchers to get you there. Come on! 1 run. Why can't this team get hot the same time. EE good now bad, Dunn bad now good. 1 or 2 hot players isn't getting the run in. Need a few more to get it going or at least stay consistant and not these slumps. Too many holes in this offense. Touch game to lose here.

You're always going to have some guys going well and others struggling. The trick is having enough guys capable of doing well that on balance you're never crippled. The Reds have been running out at least 2 and often 3 spots in the lineup from which they've gotten zero production, not couning the pitcher. That leaves you very dependant on the 3 or 4 guys who might be hitting well.

Throw in a poorly constructed lineup that spreads out those 3 or 4 guys and gives the most at bats to the least productive guys and you're left with a lineup that could score 10 on any given day, but on average is sub-par.

I don't blame Dusty for Griffey's ongoing struggles (how many times has he hit the ball on the button and seen it die at at 340 feet?), EE's slump, or Bako's return to earth. But it's his job to maximize the production we've gotten, and on that front he's been a massive failure.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 04:53 PM
I'm talking about the Rockies. They've had some injuries on offense.

Yeah, I misread that. Sorry, I thought you were referring to all of those teams...

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 05:35 PM
Davey Johnson would make different decisions with this team, but he'd still have the same record.

At least then there'd be no sugar-coating the needs facing the team.

Chip R
05-26-2008, 05:44 PM
At least then there'd be no sugar-coating the needs facing the team.

He'd probably get fired cause he dared give his opinion to the front office.

mth123
05-26-2008, 05:53 PM
I think people use the "fifth starter" thing as a crutch for Belisle. This year's real fifth starter is Cueto. He is 22. He should be babied. His turn perhaps skipped once in awhile. And he's performed like a fifth starter -- but one with tremendous upside. A guy like that -- who is essentially on a learning year -- that's an ok fifth starter, even with a 5 plus ERA.

As far as priorities are concerned, there is no bigger one than starting pitching. If the Reds don't have five good ones, then they should use the slots for kids with high upside rather than throwing Fogg or Belisle out there. Because ineffective starting pitchers result in early deficits, catch-up ball, overuse of the bullpen, and generally creates a losing environment.

I'd love to have studs filling all 5 spots in the rotation, but that is not a requirement to win. Last year the Rockies won the NL crown with, gasp, Josh Fogg playing a prominent role in the rotation. Add some rookies like Jiminez and Morales and a couple of workman like types in Francis and Cook and they won. The year before the Cardinals won the World Series with a rotation full of guys with ERAs over 5. Its just not a realistic scenario to fill the focus on finding top starters at the expense of all else. Adding Eric Bedard and Carlos Silva certainly hasn't made the Mariners a runaway. Why? Because they ignored all their other problems and assumed fortifying the rotation would cover for it all.

You know what teams that win have? They have major league caliber talent all around. No Beer league rejects manning the everyday spot behind the plate. They have OF that can catch a fly ball. They have bullpens capable of shortening the game. They have offensive teams that avoid multiple black holes in the line-up. Do they have decent starting pitching? Sure, but I don't think many have that much better than the Reds have now, which is three solid or better major league starters (two of whom are legitimate top of the rotation pitchers), a kid with huge upside and a number 5 guy (or possibly a parade of number 5 guys). I just don't see it when I look around. Look, I want starters too and I think Belisle's spot needs to be upgraded. I'm glad the Reds dealt a star caliber guy like Hamilton for a stud like Volquez. But I think you could replace Belisle with a Cy Young contender type and this team would still not be able to overcome its defense, its multiple black holes in the offense (including RF), or its shaky bullpen.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 05:58 PM
There are an infinite number of methods to building a winning team--it comes down to scored more runs than you allow...

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:14 PM
I think ranking an offense on runs scored alone is using a pretty blunt instrument to determine efficacy.

Does anyone believe that Pittsburgh is going to remain 20 runs ahead of Milwaukee and Cincinnati for the entire season?

Seriously. This offense has sputtered out of the gate, and even then, it remains a good days' day at the office from 6th place in the NL in runs scored.

The offense will be okay. It started sluggishly, but when all is said and done, it will be in the top half of the NL in runs scored, while the pitching will be bottom 5 not only in the league, but in all of baseball (right now it's 25 out of 30 in MLB and 14 out of 15 in the NL).

Archive this post. I'm completely certain of its accuracy.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 08:31 PM
I'd love to have studs filling all 5 spots in the rotation, but that is not a requirement to win. Last year the Rockies won the NL crown with, gasp, Josh Fogg playing a prominent role in the rotation. Add some rookies like Jiminez and Morales and a couple of workman like types in Francis and Cook and they won. The year before the Cardinals won the World Series with a rotation full of guys with ERAs over 5. Its just not a realistic scenario to fill the focus on finding top starters at the expense of all else. Adding Eric Bedard and Carlos Silva certainly hasn't made the Mariners a runaway. Why? Because they ignored all their other problems and assumed fortifying the rotation would cover for it all.

You know what teams that win have? They have major league caliber talent all around. No Beer league rejects manning the everyday spot behind the plate. They have OF that can catch a fly ball. They have bullpens capable of shortening the game. They have offensive teams that avoid multiple black holes in the line-up. Do they have decent starting pitching? Sure, but I don't think many have that much better than the Reds have now, which is three solid or better major league starters (two of whom are legitimate top of the rotation pitchers), a kid with huge upside and a number 5 guy (or possibly a parade of number 5 guys). I just don't see it when I look around. Look, I want starters too and I think Belisle's spot needs to be upgraded. I'm glad the Reds dealt a star caliber guy like Hamilton for a stud like Volquez. But I think you could replace Belisle with a Cy Young contender type and this team would still not be able to overcome its defense, its multiple black holes in the offense (including RF), or its shaky bullpen.

Fogg had a 4.94 ERA for Colorado last year. I'll take that from a fifth starter.

bucksfan2
05-26-2008, 09:10 PM
I have read most of this thread and am amazed how Dusty is getting blamed for everything. The one move he made that was a roll of the dice move was bringing in Bray for Fogg. Who knows why Fogg was run out there to start the inning. Maybe with a 2 run lead Dusty sent him out there to get work. If Bray does his job and doesn't allow Giles to double then this isn't an issue.

IMO people are critizing Dusty way to much for a 18 inning game. How many 18 inning games does a team play in a decade? No manager in their right mind is going to prepare for a game that goes 18 innings. The only thing you have to do is adapt and react. Both offenses went dormant in the last 6 innings or so and in all reality the only hitter that looked like he had a clue was Votto for the reds. If Dusty had it to do all over again I would imagine he would have kept Fogg in there as long as possible but hindsight is always 20/20.

membengal
05-26-2008, 09:18 PM
Or, if Dusty brings in Bray to face the lefties, maybe it doesn't come down to Bray losing a battle with a good vet like Giles with the game on the line. Because perhaps the game isn't on the line at that point.

The bigger issue with Dusty in the 11th last night was WHO he chose to run out there to start the inning. Dumb at the moment Fogg took the mound. Everyone watching knew it. Everyone.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:26 PM
I think a big part of the problem with the perspective around here is that on any given night Fogg, Weathers, Lincoln, and Bray can be counted on to perform at about the same level. Forget which hand they throw with; their results are pathetic. Throw in two tweeners like Affeldt and Burton, and you've got an overtaxed Cordero.

I think it's time to jettison the notion that bringing in X instead of Y is "clearly" the better option; because unless X = Cordero and Y= Fogg, the difference is not really great enough to sweat the details.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:29 PM
Fogg had a 4.94 ERA for Colorado last year. I'll take that from a fifth starter.

:rolleyes:

there are so many variables that factor into using that ERA to predict future success I don't know where to begin...

M2
05-27-2008, 01:56 AM
1. In the 11th, with a two run lead, starting off the inning with right hander Josh Fogg instead of Bray, against two hitters (Carlin and Gerut) who donít have a single hit all season against lefties. Then bringing in Bray to face Giles, who has a .288 average this year versus lefties. This also results in using up our 'long' reliever in less than one inning.

My eyes nearly popped out of my head when I saw he went to Fogg instead of Bray for the save in that situation. Just horrific management on Baker's part. It cost the team the game and forced him to chew up Harang and Volquez.