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*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 11:16 PM
I think the season is a large enough sample now to start drawing some conclusions based on this data from THT. Observations?


NATIONAL LEAGUE
=====================
Team Results Win Probability Added
W L RS RA RS-RA PWINS VAR Close Bat Start Pen Tot
ARI 30 20 262 199 63 31 -1 11 - 12 2.17 1.67 1.16 5.00
ATL 27 23 239 193 46 30 -3 8 - 12 -1.70 2.32 1.38 2.00
CHN 29 21 288 209 79 32 -3 10 - 16 2.87 0.49 0.64 4.00
CIN 23 28 225 255 -30 22 1 14 - 10 -1.27 -1.57 0.34 -2.50
COL 20 30 210 253 -43 21 -1 12 - 13 -3.92 -1.94 0.86 -5.00
FLA 29 20 238 227 11 26 3 12 - 9 2.45 -1.68 3.73 4.50
HOU 29 23 253 249 4 26 3 16 - 13 4.30 -1.45 0.15 3.00
LAN 26 23 230 212 18 26 0 10 - 9 0.48 -1.95 2.96 1.50
MIL 23 27 220 246 -26 22 1 14 - 12 -0.73 -1.06 -0.21 -2.00
WAS 22 29 197 243 -46 21 1 13 - 12 -4.19 0.36 0.33 -3.50
NYN 23 25 228 223 5 25 -2 7 - 10 -3.00 0.54 1.46 -1.00
PHI 28 24 260 227 33 29 -1 15 - 16 1.53 -2.74 3.20 2.00
PIT 24 26 244 271 -27 22 2 12 - 9 -0.11 -4.44 3.55 -1.00
STL 30 22 239 210 29 29 1 16 - 12 1.89 2.48 -0.37 4.00
SD 19 33 182 253 -71 18 1 10 - 15 -8.88 1.49 0.39 -7.00
SF 20 31 189 244 -55 20 0 13 - 17 -4.89 -0.60 0.00 -5.50

League 25 25 232 232 -1 25 0

Team Batting Stats
R/G PA Outs BA OBP SLG OPS GPA P/PA GB% LD% BABIP BA/RSP
ARI 5.24 1927 1277 .259 .341 .437 .778 .263 3.86 40% 21% .301 .273
ATL 4.78 1942 1289 .282 .351 .428 .779 .265 3.66 45% 22% .311 .270
CHN 5.76 2060 1323 .284 .367 .445 .812 .277 3.88 43% 21% .323 .276
CIN 4.41 1976 1345 .257 .329 .416 .745 .252 3.76 44% 18% .283 .261
COL 4.20 1988 1356 .255 .329 .387 .715 .245 3.83 45% 21% .294 .229
FLA 4.86 1867 1268 .263 .327 .457 .783 .261 3.90 43% 18% .305 .243
HOU 4.87 1968 1344 .266 .327 .426 .753 .254 3.79 44% 20% .296 .286
LAN 4.69 1884 1274 .270 .341 .391 .732 .251 3.88 48% 20% .307 .270
MIL 4.40 1955 1344 .251 .324 .406 .729 .247 3.85 45% 18% .283 .254
WAS 3.86 1928 1351 .234 .314 .352 .665 .229 3.76 49% 19% .271 .249
NYN 4.75 1887 1285 .253 .329 .391 .720 .246 3.82 48% 21% .289 .262
PHI 5.00 2039 1369 .263 .335 .452 .788 .264 3.80 42% 20% .287 .265
PIT 4.88 1984 1354 .254 .323 .399 .722 .245 3.85 43% 19% .287 .273
STL 4.60 2071 1352 .278 .365 .411 .776 .267 3.75 45% 20% .315 .266
SD 3.50 2046 1432 .238 .306 .365 .671 .229 3.80 42% 20% .284 .236
SF 3.71 1929 1350 .259 .320 .398 .718 .243 3.70 49% 18% .301 .233

League 4.59 1970 1339 .260 .333 .410 .743 .252 3.80 45% 20% .296 .259

Team Pitching Stats
R/G ERA FIP DER LD% GB% IF/Fly K/G BB/G HR/G HR/Fly SLG LOB%
ARI 3.98 3.47 3.54 .709 20% 45% 9% 7.8 3.0 0.8 8% .362 71%
ATL 3.86 3.62 3.89 .718 18% 49% 10% 7.1 3.6 0.8 11% .374 74%
CHN 4.18 3.72 4.05 .714 19% 43% 11% 7.4 3.4 1.0 11% .393 74%
CIN 5.00 4.54 4.17 .674 21% 43% 11% 8.2 3.3 1.2 13% .442 71%
COL 5.06 4.56 4.29 .695 18% 49% 9% 6.0 3.9 0.9 10% .423 69%
FLA 4.63 4.22 4.24 .698 18% 40% 11% 6.2 3.9 0.9 9% .399 71%
HOU 4.79 4.54 4.71 .688 19% 44% 8% 6.5 3.1 1.4 15% .473 74%
LAN 4.33 3.95 3.62 .691 20% 46% 10% 7.1 3.3 0.7 8% .377 70%
MIL 4.92 4.60 4.89 .693 18% 44% 10% 6.4 3.9 1.3 14% .435 73%
WAS 4.76 4.47 4.42 .692 19% 44% 10% 6.6 3.7 1.1 13% .431 73%
NYN 4.65 4.06 4.44 .704 19% 44% 8% 6.7 3.9 1.0 11% .389 72%
PHI 4.37 4.02 4.23 .693 21% 46% 11% 6.0 3.4 1.0 10% .422 73%
PIT 5.42 4.95 4.51 .667 20% 44% 6% 5.4 3.9 0.8 10% .431 70%
STL 4.04 3.81 3.94 .706 20% 44% 10% 6.0 3.1 0.8 9% .401 73%
SD 4.87 4.33 3.95 .693 21% 43% 14% 6.8 3.5 0.9 11% .402 70%
SF 4.78 4.44 4.46 .690 20% 39% 10% 7.5 4.1 1.2 13% .426 73%

League 4.60 4.21 4.21 .695 19% 44% 10% 6.7 3.6 1.0 11% .412 72%

Team Fielding Stats
Plus/Minus Team Infield Outfield
UER TE FE SB CS% Pit Fld RZR OOZ RZR OOZ RZR OOZ
ARI 28 10 22 30 17% -1 13 .828 120 .771 55 .924 65
ATL 15 16 16 35 20% -1 22 .840 140 .806 82 .902 58
CHN 19 11 19 26 30% 12 11 .839 133 .800 55 .897 78
CIN 26 23 13 27 27% -15 -20 .827 114 .789 57 .881 57
COL 20 9 16 40 18% -6 4 .837 127 .801 69 .908 58
FLA 22 26 17 31 34% 11 -11 .835 110 .771 49 .920 61
HOU 18 12 18 16 27% -8 -7 .840 137 .807 66 .894 71
LAN 21 20 11 34 19% -11 2 .819 148 .766 80 .899 68
MIL 18 14 19 29 41% 11 -14 .808 150 .749 77 .892 73
WAS 17 15 11 43 20% -6 -5 .827 136 .790 61 .883 75
NYN 28 14 19 17 43% 2 -2 .821 123 .755 43 .921 80
PHI 20 14 22 39 32% -12 0 .810 160 .778 69 .863 91
PIT 19 13 32 30 30% -11 -29 .813 133 .756 67 .894 66
STL 12 14 13 24 37% -13 23 .872 155 .833 88 .928 67
SD 21 13 9 56 15% -18 7 .847 138 .815 56 .897 82
SF 19 8 20 35 17% 4 -18 .831 122 .749 55 .931 67

League 20 15 17 32 26% -4 -1 .831 134 .784 64 .902 70
"PWINS" stands for Projected Wins, based on runs scored and allowed, and "VAR" is each team's variance against PWINS. The "Close" column lists each team's won/loss record in one- and two-run games. Win Probability Added stats are calculated by Fangraphs (http://www.fangraphs.com/). The fielding plus/minus stats are explained in the beginning of this article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-i-didnt-know-last-week22/). The Revised Zone Rating statistics are discussed in this article (http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/fielding-stats-at-the-hardball-times/).

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:18 PM
The Cubs are a darn good team.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:19 PM
The Reds defense is terrible.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 11:58 PM
The Reds defense is terrible.

An average defense and this team is 25-26...

WebScorpion
05-27-2008, 01:13 PM
An average defense and this team is 25-26...
...and if we swap Bruce for Patterson, the defense gets worse... Of course, the offense will actually be viable again.

Chip R
05-27-2008, 01:24 PM
The Cubs are a darn good team.


That may be but they lost 2 of 3 to the Bucs and 2 of 3 to the Reds on the road.

smith288
05-27-2008, 01:29 PM
That may be but they lost 2 of 3 to the Bucs and 2 of 3 to the Reds on the road.
For FCB, this year's Cards team is the Cubs...regardless that history and karma keep them far from the prize year in and year out.

*BaseClogger*
05-27-2008, 04:56 PM
...and if we swap Bruce for Patterson, the defense gets worse... Of course, the offense will actually be viable again.

I'm not sold that there is much more than a marginal difference between Patterson and Bruce defensively...

WebScorpion
05-28-2008, 01:13 AM
I'm not sold that there is much more than a marginal difference between Patterson and Bruce defensively...

I'm not sure I'd call it marginal, but it is really immaterial when you consider their offensive difference. :D