Bruce side conversation

[buckeyenut]

Side conversation in the Bruce thread about whether or not the Reds are in good shape for 2009. So I figured I'd move it here for discussion.

1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Paul Janish ?
3B Edwin Encarnacion
LF Adam Dunn
CF Corey Patterson / Chris Dickerson ?
RF Jay Bruce
C ?
SP1 Aaron Harang
SP2 Edinson Volquez
SP3 Bronson Arroyo
SP4 Johnny Cueto
SP5 Homer Bailey / Matt Maloney / Brandon Thompson
CL Francisco Cordero
MR Jared Burton
MR Bill Bray
MR Jeremy Roenicke
MR One of leftover SPs ?
MR ?
MR ?
Bench Jeff Keppinger
Bench Ryan Freel / Norris Hopper
Bench Paul Bako / David Ross ?
Bench IF ?
Bench OF ?

I'm pretty comfortable with what we have everywhere there is not a question mark. And the good news is that most of the question marks are on the bench, which is fairly easily fillable. But we have some work to do the rest of the year to address some of these holes. I think we have to find out if Janish can be our everyday SS the rest of this year. If he can be, I think it really opens up some options for us.

What do you guys think? Do we have the arms in the high minors to fill the MR spots? What about bench guys? Can Dickerson or someone else in the system be as good as Patterson defensively in CF ? Will we get off our duff and resign Dunn?

[Blitz Dorsey]

I certainly hope Keppinger is the starting SS and not the light-hitting Janish. I think people have been fooled by Janish's bat in a small sample size this year. Hopefully he keeps it up, but even in college he had the rep as a light hitter. I just don't see Janish ever being consistently above a .250 hitter in MLB. However, I do like his plate discipline and his professional at bats. Janish is definitely not someone I'm writing off.

But until Kepp proves he can't do it with the glove, he's the guy IMO.

[HokieRed]

I certainly hope Corey Patterson is gone from the organization long before 2009 (maybe this afternoon?) and I do not see Dickerson as a starting major league centerfielder, given his K's. I'm also with Blitz that Keppinger has to be in the lineup, and, though I've been a big supporter of EE's it looks to me less and less like he's the long-term answer at 3b. I think Jocketty has to do a major deal involving several players, though I can't quite figure out what shape it will take. It will probably have to involve one of the starters--likely Arroyo--and will turn on the risk that two of the three you mention for #5--Bailey, Maloney, Thompson--can be moved into the rotation next year without too much damage. The goal will be to strengthen two of the four positions where we are weak--SS, 3b, C, CF. This assumes we sign Dunn and Bruce nails down RF.

[bucksfan2]

1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Paul Janish/Keppinger
3B Edwin Encarnacion/Keppinger
LF Adam Dunn/Keppinger
CF Chris Dickerson/Bruce/FA
RF Jay Bruce
C Ross/Bako
SP1 Aaron Harang
SP2 Edinson Volquez
SP3 Bronson Arroyo
SP4 Johnny Cueto
SP5 Homer Bailey / Matt Maloney
CL Francisco Cordero
MR Jared Burton
MR Bill Bray
MR Jeremy Roenicke
MR One of leftover SPs ?
MR ?
MR ?
Bench Jeff Keppinger
Bench Ryan Freel / Norris Hopper
Bench Paul Bako / David Ross ?
Bench IF Gonzales
Bench OF ?

I think Keppinger will be a wild card for next season. He isn't great at any defensive position yet he isn't bad at any position. I can forsee him moving to LF if Dunn isn't back. I can also see him spell Encarnacion and Phillips from time to time at 3B and 2B. I can also see him get some reps in at 1B if the reds want to move Votto to LF.

I have a feeling that either or both Bako and Ross will be back. They aren't horriable C and outside of a handful of C in the game there aren't any better options out there. Lets be honest a team who has a Mauer or Martin or McCann isn't going to let them go until they think they are washed up.

Patterson will not be back with this club next season. I can't forsee anyway that Jocketty would bring him back. I also see Arroyo being moved this season. If you have Bailey, Thompson, and Maloney waiting in the wings to start Arroyo is the likely one to be moved.

[Degenerate39]

Can Keppinger play Centerfield?

I think it would be a good idea to use Bailey or Thompson as a relief pitcher next year. If Bailey bombs in the rotation then they can switch out or vice versa. Or maybe put both of them in the rotation and use Arroyo as the relief pitcher.

Harang
Volquez
Cueto
Thompson
Bailey

That's a good young rotation. I think they'll have a few options for the rotation next year.

[Will M]

1B Joey Votto
2B Brandon Phillips
SS Paul Janish
3B Jeff Keppinger
LF Adam Dunn
CF ?
RF Jay Bruce
C ?

SP1 Aaron Harang
SP2 Edinson Volquez
SP3 Bronson Arroyo
SP4 Johnny Cueto
SP5 Homer Bailey or Matt Maloney ( Brandon Thompson dark horse )

CL Francisco Cordero
set up - ?
MR (x4) Jared Burton, Bill Bray, Affeldt?, Herrara hopefully, or free agent pickup

Bench: Ryan Freel ( unless we can trade him )
Bench: backup catcher likely Hanigan/Tatum
Bench candidates: - Hopper, Dickerson, Rosales, bench guys picked up in the offseason

1. not a big Dunn fan but if the money and years are ok then we need to extend him. the Reds need his bat. we can afford one bad glove and it should be Dunn

2. not a big EE fan. does have some trade value. defense is much better with Janish at short rather than Kep. I like Kep more than EE so EE goes. i know i am in the minority here.

3. IF Affeldt continues to pitch well he could be resigned as a middle reliever

4. Ross/Bako ain't gonna get it done in 2009 . Both are backup catchers.
IMO the Reds need a catcher who plays good defense and can OPS .700.

5. Dickerson is not playing well in AAA. The free agent market is weak for RF/CF. We need to somehow find a centerfielder who can play good defense and OPS .750

6 Guys Jocketty could target - Aaron Rowland if Giants rebuild, Coco Crisp, Gerald Laird ( although i am not sure about his defense ), one of Arizona's two catchers.

[REDREAD]

I think that we will start to see a makeover this offseason by Jocketty.

I think we will see at least 2-3 players on the "holdover" list traded to fill other holes, since a team has to give up quality to get quality. I'm not really sure what guys Walt is going to trade and which ones he considers keepers.

This team is going to desperately need another quality OF next year, possibly two. (I'm assuming Jr will be gone) I think that's more important than upgrading C.

[buckeyenut]

I certainly hope Keppinger is the starting SS and not the light-hitting Janish. I think people have been fooled by Janish's bat in a small sample size this year. Hopefully he keeps it up, but even in college he had the rep as a light hitter. I just don't see Janish ever being consistently above a .250 hitter in MLB. However, I do like his plate discipline and his professional at bats. Janish is definitely not someone I'm writing off.

But until Kepp proves he can't do it with the glove, he's the guy IMO.
Don't the defensive metrics say that Kepp isn't getting it done with the glove?

That is why I think you have to try Janish and find out if you can live with him or not. If he is .250 with .320 OBP and Gold Glove type defense, that might be OK. That would allow us to move Kepp all around the IF, filling whatever holes we have, playing 5-6 days a week. I love using both him and Freel in that type of a role, allowing you to focus on getting bats to fill out the bench rather than filling positions. It also gives you more flexibility on the trade market.

[Reds Freak]

Who knows what pieces will fit where in the next few years but here's what I like:

Volquez - 24
Cueto - 22
Burton - 27
Bray - 25
Bailey - 21

Phillips - 27
Votto - 24
Keppinger - 28
Janish - 25
EE - 25
Dunn - 28
Bruce - 21

Throw in actual quality veterans like Harang, Arroyo, Cordero and minor league guys like Thompson, Roenicke, Frazier and that's something to get excited about. Even if all don't pan out, it sure beats watching washed up veterans. Catcher is one area Walt really needs to focus on this off season to complete that picture..

[Blitz Dorsey]

Don't the defensive metrics say that Kepp isn't getting it done with the glove?

That is why I think you have to try Janish and find out if you can live with him or not. If he is .250 with .320 OBP and Gold Glove type defense, that might be OK. That would allow us to move Kepp all around the IF, filling whatever holes we have, playing 5-6 days a week. I love using both him and Freel in that type of a role, allowing you to focus on getting bats to fill out the bench rather than filling positions. It also gives you more flexibility on the trade market.

I don't know, you tell me. I'm actually a stats guy, but defensive stats can be misleading IMO. I don't miss a Reds game with very few exceptions (on TV not in person) and from my vantage point Keppinger has been solid defensively since he's been with the Reds. Some players get a bad rep and can't shake it even with solid D. But Keppinger has been at least solid with the glove IMO and maybe better.

Wow, a lot of people here think Janish is the starting SS of the future. I just don't see it. I hope I'm wrong though, it would be nice. But for these people, how do you account for his .235 average at Chattanooga/Louisville combined last year in over 500 at bats? That would appear to be a better indicator of his hitting abilities than his 100+ ABs at Louisville/Cincinnati this year.

[Will M]

I don't know, you tell me. I'm actually a stats guy, but defensive stats can be misleading IMO. I don't miss a Reds game with very few exceptions (on TV not in person) and from my vantage point Keppinger has been solid defensively since he's been with the Reds. Some players get a bad rep and can't shake it even with solid D. But Keppinger has been at least solid with the glove IMO and maybe better.

Wow, a lot of people here think Janish is the starting SS of the future. I just don't see it. I hope I'm wrong though, it would be nice. But for these people, how do you account for his .235 average at Chattanooga/Louisville combined last year in over 500 at bats? That would appear to be a better indicator of his hitting abilities than his 100+ ABs at Louisville/Cincinnati this year.

Right now we have the perfect oppurtunity to see if Janish can hit and Dusty plays Hairston out of position every day.

[Rounding Third]

I don't know, you tell me. I'm actually a stats guy, but defensive stats can be misleading IMO. I don't miss a Reds game with very few exceptions (on TV not in person) and from my vantage point Keppinger has been solid defensively since he's been with the Reds. Some players get a bad rep and can't shake it even with solid D. But Keppinger has been at least solid with the glove IMO and maybe better.

Wow, a lot of people here think Janish is the starting SS of the future. I just don't see it. I hope I'm wrong though, it would be nice. But for these people, how do you account for his .235 average at Chattanooga/Louisville combined last year in over 500 at bats? That would appear to be a better indicator of his hitting abilities than his 100+ ABs at Louisville/Cincinnati this year.

Agree on Janish. I really like him, but he is still a weak hitting SS with a solid glove.

About Keppinger on defense. I think that whatever he gets to he fields cleanly and always has a solid throw to first. I think the problem is he doesn't have the best range. I agree with you that Kepp sometimes gets a rough time, but the Plus/Minus system has him rated as the 28th best SS.

[The_jbh]

Right now we have the perfect oppurtunity to see if Janish can hit and Dusty plays Hairston out of position every day.


Hariston is playing too hot to bench...

The only way Janish is getting starts is if Griffey sits the bench and we go with a Dunn Bruce Hariston OF...

[corkedbat]

* I think they have to find a way to extend Dunn (not sure that they will, but that's a heck of a hunk of offense to replace).

* I'd like to see them land a RH OF who can either play RF and add some punch or a CF who can maybe leadoff and play very solid defense.

* I'd also like to see them add a primary PH from both the left and right side - if the RHer could play first and the corner OF spots it would be a plus. Cumberland might be able to fill the LH 4th OF w/pop role by next spring

* I think fortifying the bench might be as vig a need as the pitching staff going into 09 and one prime PH needs to be added before the trade deadline this year

* I'd bring back Patterson CF, as a reseve but not at $3M (you might not lose much with Dickerson for a lot less money though)

* I'd bring back Bako and find a decent all-around RH C to pair with him

* I'm looking for Fogg to be moved by July, Belisle to the long role and then Homer, Maloney and Thompson to be given chances to nail down the fifth spot

* I'd re-sign Affeldt and give Reonicke, Pelland, Watson and maybe one or two other farmhands a look in the las two spots in the pen

* I actually think most of the pitching pieces for 09 are already in the system, but adding pitching is always a good thing and a 7th/8th inning setu guy would be big.

1B Votto/(RH 1B/OF acquisition)
2B Phillips/Hairston
SS Keppinger/Janisch
3B Encarnacion
LF Dunn/(Prime LH PH/4th OF)
CF (Bruce or Acquisition)/Patterson or Dickerson
RF (Bruce or Acquisition)
C Bako/(RH C Acqusition)

Starters
Harang
Volquez
Arroyo
Cueto
Bailey/Maloney/Thompson

Bullpen
Belisle (Long)
Cordero (CL)
Affeldt
Burton
Bray
Plus one or two from among:
Roenicke/Pelland/Watson/Acquisitions/Other farmhands

Can Frazier develop into a decent enough CF/RF to play in the same OF with Dunn and Bruce? What kind of arm does he have?