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Kc61
05-27-2008, 10:40 AM
Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.

Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?

I see depth but few top end guys.

Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.

jmcclain19
05-27-2008, 10:56 AM
I would say Frazier and Thompson would qualify as mid Top-100 type players.

Mesoraco would have a shot if he keeps hitting in Dayton. And if Vailaka turns around in AA and starts hitting again, I think he's forced the Reds to consider him as a future 2B prospect.

And Bailey's numbers, for a 21 yr old in AAA - are excellent. He's still the No. 1 prospect by a long shot.

No one comes close to Bruce, but that guy is a once in decade type of player to come thru the system.

It's certainly no shame to have graduated three studs to the majors in one year - when have the Reds ever done that before. But if we're talking about Vailaka at No. 4 instead of Johnny Cueto - well the drop off is pretty sharp.

lollipopcurve
05-27-2008, 10:58 AM
Three of the "big four" are in the major leagues. The fourth, Bailey, is having some difficulties getting through AAA.

Do the Reds still have one of the best minor league systems in baseball?

I see depth but few top end guys.

Assess the Reds minor leagues after the Bruce call up.

It's always been my view that it's the top-end guys who really define the system's value. The notion of "depth" is difficult to nail down, in my opinion. Generally, I think it means "guys who could be good, but we're not sure." So, while it's certain that the Reds have "more depth" than they used to, it's difficult to know if any of the players will emerge as top prospects.

Enjoy the top 4 (assuming Bailey eventually cements his worthiness in one way or another before it's all said and done). The harvest is almost all in, and we should expect a marked improvement at the major league level for the next several years -- if they don't get it right this time, after producing a handful of excellent prospects, they will have missed their best chance in a long, long time.

Now the system returns to normalcy. It's probably best to rank it in the vast middle of organizations. Will any of Frazier, Stubbs, Francisco, Duran, Valaika, Mesoraco, Soto, etc., become 150-game, above-average major league regulars? Will the system produce a pitcher who looks like a #3 starter at least? (Looks iffy now, but if they draft Crow or Matusz, maybe yes.) Can Roenicke or Watson, or someone else we don't quite recognize yet, become a dominant setup man and eventually move into the closer's role? Too soon to tell.

The corollary is this... while the top-end guys are the best gauge of your system's value, the organization's willingness to go with younger guys in middle relief, in defensive positions like 2B and in platoons, also defines how much you can expect to get out of your system. Often, this is the payoff for that nebulous "depth" attributed to a system without prospects with star potential.

Benihana
05-27-2008, 11:06 AM
I was going to release my updated Reds Top Prospects list for June following the draft, but to respond to your post- the Reds still have three "A" caliber prospects in the minors following Bruce's promotion in Daryl Thompson, Todd Frazier, and yes, Homer Bailey. They also have a multitude of "B" level prospects with guys like Valaika, Roenicke, Maloney, Wood, Francisco, Waring, and Stubbs. With the addition of a top talent that should hopefully come from the #7 overall pick in this draft, that still leaves the Reds fairly stacked on the farm. Obviously any time you subtract the #1 prospect in baseball your overall farm ranking is going to take a hit, but I still believe the Reds are in the top 1/3 of the league in terms of minor league talent now excluding Bruce.

dougdirt
05-27-2008, 11:09 AM
At this moment in time, the Reds have 3 top 100 prospects in baseball with Bailey, Stubbs and Frazier. Thompson is getting close, but I think we need to see it over a longer period of time still given his past history. Then after that there are still a lot of guys that are strong prospects throughout the system.

Benihana
05-27-2008, 11:27 AM
At this moment in time, the Reds have 3 top 100 prospects in baseball with Bailey, Stubbs and Frazier. Thompson is getting close, but I think we need to see it over a longer period of time still given his past history. Then after that there are still a lot of guys that are strong prospects throughout the system.

Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.

dougdirt
05-27-2008, 11:37 AM
Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.

Read your last statement though, at this point doesn't mean much. Its all about future value. Is it possible Thompson jumps past Stubbs? Certainly. It won't be now though, because no one is sure if he is going to maintain his stuff through the season. He didn't last year and with his shoulder injury in the past, its a concern scouts I have talked to have had with him when looking at this year. If he does, then yes, he is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs is. Until then though, I think a lot of the Daryl Thompson stuff should be cautiously tempered.

PuffyPig
05-27-2008, 11:43 AM
Daryl Thompson is a better prospect than Drew Stubbs right now, no question about it.

He is younger, playing at a much higher level, putting up much better numbers, has more trade value, and has a higher chance of making the major leagues (and making an impact.) By any way you could possibly measure a prospect, he is miles ahead of Stubbs at this point.

You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.

Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".

Higher chance of making the major leagues?

I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.

_Sir_Charles_
05-27-2008, 11:44 AM
Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 11:47 AM
Homer Bailey is still a top ten or 15 prospect in baseball IMO. Todd Frazier is solidifying himself as a top prospect and would probably crack the top 75. Baseball America seems to be falling in love with Daryl Thompson so it's a good bet that he'll crack the top 100. If Drew Stubbs can hit close to .300 and OPS over .800 then he'll reach the top 100. Same with Devin Mesoraco, if he hits like he is right now over a full season he'll probably creep into a top 100 list. Of course there's a chance the Reds No. 7 overall pick could also land on a top 100 list if he produces. Juan Duran is the wildcard. Baseball America loves him, so if he plays in the GCL or Pioneer League this year and hits well then expect to see him on their list. Obviously they all won't reach the top 100 at one time but four or five possibly could.

I still think the organization is in nice shape even after the graduation of Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Joey Votto. There are some nice polished products Todd Frazier, Daryl Thompson, Chris Valaika and Matt Maloney who could help the Reds some time within the next year or so and there's still plenty of high upside talent, especially in the lower minors. Obviously there is Homer Bailey in AAA, but then you have high upside guys like Kyle Lotzkar, Josh Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, and maybe Devin Mesoraco if you want to put him in this group. Juan Francisco could be put in this class if he could ever learn just a little bit of plate discipline. His power potential is off the charts but he may never be able to show it off unless he develops an idea of the strikezone. Juan Duran and Nefi Soto are two guys I think have a chance to be stud hitters soon. Soto is said to have decent plate discipline already, to go along with a quick bat and wiry frame that projects as a possible 30 homerun guy someday. We already know about Juan Duran's tools. He's got a chance to be a Jay Bruce type prospect someday if he develops as expected.

Then there are guys like Chris Valaika who won't be a superstar or anything but is a player who can just flat out hit at any position he plays. He could probably see some time in Cincy next season. The only question about him is where will he play? He could be a guy in the Jeff Keppinger mold who plays 2B, SS, 3B and gets plenty of atbats moving around the diamond. Anther guys who doesn't project as a star but could help the Reds in CF is Shaun Cumberland. And then there are solid bullpen options like Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola and Carlos Fisher once they workout their struggles, and Sean Watson too. Tyler Pelland also seems to be pitching better lately and he's already on the 40-man roster.

Other guys who project as depth off the bench who I think will be major leaguers someday: Justin Turner, Chris Heisey, Tonys Gutierrez.

As you can see, I'm still pretty high on the organization. It may not be top five type talent still but the Reds are still in the upper half in baseball IMO.

dougdirt
05-27-2008, 11:47 AM
Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.

Projection. I really don't see Maloney becoming more than a solid #4 pitcher in the major leagues. Thompson has a much higher ceiling than that, even if they have similar numbers. Maloney wouldn't make my Top 5, even without Bruce.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2008, 12:13 PM
My current top 10:

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Valaika
9. Strait/Cumberland
10. Roenicke

AmarilloRed
05-27-2008, 12:16 PM
Ben Juckich is pitching pretty well at AA; pretty old at 25 but he could make the jump to AAA this season. I think he is a pitcher to watch out for.

Kc61
05-27-2008, 12:21 PM
My current top 10:

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Valaika
9. Strait/Cumberland
10. Roenicke

It's interesting that your top 5 picks fit in very well with the big club's needs. Pitching (everyone needs); a catcher; right handed hitting; centerfield. Obviously most of these guys are a couple of years away and things will change. But if any of those top talents emerge quickly, there will be a place at GABP just waiting for them.

Overall, this thread indicates a lot of good prospects, perhaps no "sure things" like Bruce or "almost sure things" like Cueto, but some who are close. A good first pick in early June would bolster the organization even more.

redhawk61
05-27-2008, 12:53 PM
My current top 10:

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Valaika
9. Strait/Cumberland
10. Roenicke

You forgot the one, the only Juan Duran

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2008, 12:57 PM
You forgot the one, the only Juan Duran

Once he starts shaving or playing, (whichever comes first), he'll get his chance to make the list.

klw
05-27-2008, 12:57 PM
My current top 10:

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Valaika
9. Strait/Cumberland
10. Roenicke

Hate to nitpick but isn't this 11? :)

HBP
05-27-2008, 01:03 PM
Overall, this thread indicates a lot of good prospects, perhaps no "sure things" like Bruce or "almost sure things" like Cueto, but some who are close. A good first pick in early June would bolster the organization even more.

IMO Frazier is the one getting there fastest. I think he'll be the best player out of everyone left including Bailey.

Oxilon
05-27-2008, 01:30 PM
We already know about Juan Duran's tools. He's got a chance to be a Jay Bruce type prospect someday if he develops as expected.

I think you're jumping the gun on this one. As previously mentioned in this thread, Jay Bruce was a once in a decade prospect for this organization. He was a national player of the year nominee in high school, a first round draft pick, and has sense been given several acclaimed awards including best minor league player.

Now, Jaun Duran has yet to step on the field of the GCL, never the less the AAA Futures All Star Game. Yes, he certainly has the physical gifts and potential to someday be a top minor league prospect, but I wouldn't go as far as saying "if he develops as expected" he should be the next Jay Bruce. Especially when "developing" is the hard part for prospects and it's rare for prospects to ever fulfill their potential, never the less a 16 year old who's just stepping into the GCL for the first time.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:53 PM
I think you're jumping the gun on this one. As previously mentioned in this thread, Jay Bruce was a once in a decade prospect for this organization. He was a national player of the year nominee in high school, a first round draft pick, and has sense been given several acclaimed awards including best minor league player.

Now, Jaun Duran has yet to step on the field of the GCL, never the less the AAA Futures All Star Game. Yes, he certainly has the physical gifts and potential to someday be a top minor league prospect, but I wouldn't go as far as saying "if he develops as expected" he should be the next Jay Bruce. Especially when "developing" is the hard part for prospects and it's rare for prospects to ever fulfill their potential, never the less a 16 year old who's just stepping into the GCL for the first time.

That's why I said he's got a chance. I never said he would be another Jay Bruce. I said he's got a chance to be that type of prospect. His scouting report is amazing. I've never seen anything like it to be honest. I realize there is a good chance he doesn't make it, but just thinking about his potential has to get you excited.

TRF
05-27-2008, 02:07 PM
Projection. I really don't see Maloney becoming more than a solid #4 pitcher in the major leagues. Thompson has a much higher ceiling than that, even if they have similar numbers. Maloney wouldn't make my Top 5, even without Bruce.

Then I am glad you aren't running the Red's ML system, as Maloney is obviously a top 5 talent.

LH SP with his K rate at AAA ARE top 5 talents. He scuffled early, but has rebounded nicely in May. I see him at #4 behind Bailey, Thompson and Frazier.

Joseph
05-27-2008, 02:23 PM
1 - Homer Bailey
2 - Daryl Thompson
3 - Travis Wood
4 - Todd Frazier
5 - Drew Stubbs
6 - Chris Valaika
7 - Brandon Waring
8 - Jordan Smith
9 - Danny Herrera
10 - Shaun Cumberland

HokieRed
05-27-2008, 02:32 PM
A couple of other guys deserve mention in terms of how this system might be graded at year's end. Evan Hildenbrandt and the recently promoted Phillipe Valiquette. Don't forget the latter is now a 21 year old lefthander at High A who reportedly throws 95. Seems like he's been around forever but he's really only a very young pitcher.

dougdirt
05-27-2008, 02:46 PM
Then I am glad you aren't running the Red's ML system, as Maloney is obviously a top 5 talent.

LH SP with his K rate at AAA ARE top 5 talents. He scuffled early, but has rebounded nicely in May. I see him at #4 behind Bailey, Thompson and Frazier.

Maloney isn't a top 5 talent 'obviously' because well, I don't think he is. There are several top 10's listed here and he isn't in the top 5 of them and not even in the top 10 of some (although I do guess some just left him out, but maybe not).

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2008, 02:50 PM
I forgot about Maloney. He does deserve to be in the top 10.

My revised top 10/11:

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Maloney
9. Valaika
10. Strait/Cumberland

_Sir_Charles_
05-27-2008, 03:00 PM
I'm surprised so many people are leaving off Waring, Soto, Maloney, Roenicke, Dorn, Rosales & Lotzkar. I guess I need to look into Strait, Cumberland and Valaika more.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Reds farm system is alive and well. While we don't have top 10 prospects anymore (except for MAYBE Homer...but I'd guess he's falling fast), I think we'll have some come next year.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2008, 03:11 PM
I would love to include Waring, but he really needs to cut down on his K's.

He's also not dominating low A like he was earlier. Hopefully he comes around. I'd put him right in that 11-15 range, along with Soto and Roenicke.

At 25, Rosales is struggling big time right now in Louisville. His best bet his to mirror the progress of Jeff Keppinger which would mean one or two more years and probably another organization.

Redman15
05-27-2008, 03:45 PM
It looks like Gil is replacing Bruce in Louisville.

HokieRed
05-27-2008, 04:05 PM
Where's the news on Gil? If it's true and Strait and Cumberland aren't also moving, then that seems to me a real mistake on Walt's part.

icehole3
05-27-2008, 04:31 PM
1 - Homer Bailey
2 - Daryl Thompson
3 - Travis Wood
4 - Todd Frazier
5 - Drew Stubbs
6 - Chris Valaika
7 - Brandon Waring
8 - Jordan Smith
9 - Danny Herrera
10 - Shaun Cumberland

I like this list a lot better

http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/8863/kisschimp1fq5.gif

BuckeyeRedleg
05-27-2008, 04:56 PM
Where's the news on Gil? If it's true and Strait and Cumberland aren't also moving, then that seems to me a real mistake on Walt's part.


Surprising because he really seems to be promoting youth. Higher levels are getting younger and better.

Strait needs to be in Louisville.

TRF
05-27-2008, 05:05 PM
Maloney isn't a top 5 talent 'obviously' because well, I don't think he is. There are several top 10's listed here and he isn't in the top 5 of them and not even in the top 10 of some (although I do guess some just left him out, but maybe not).

LH SP, career K/9 north of 9, stingy with the long ball. Did I mention he's LH? yeah, IMO top 5 in the Reds system. his K/9 is lower this month than last, but his BABIP has normalized a bit, and he's giving up fewer hits. His control is outstanding.

Oh, and he's LH.

11larkin11
05-27-2008, 05:48 PM
I think people are underestimating how good Stubbs has been this year, as he is back on the map as a prospect, IMO. He will be a major leaguer no matter what, with his GG defense, speed, base stealing abilities, and amazing ability to take a walk. Plus, he has been hitting fairly well in a pitchers league. Now we just need the power to come around. I am in the minority, but my Top 5 is Bailey-Frazier-Stubbs-Thompson-Mez

Oxilon
05-27-2008, 05:52 PM
Let's also remember we still have the #7 pick in the upcoming draft so we should be adding another top ten prospect to our lists and even perhaps a top 100 prospect in all of baseball.

SMcGavin
05-28-2008, 12:38 AM
Why is it people keep overlooking Matt Maloney? His numbers are almost identicle to Thompson's and they're at AAA instead of AA. He's simply got to be one of the Reds' top 5 prospects IMO.

Because he doesn't throw that hard. That's the reason. I have never heard a criticism of Maloney that had anything to do with the results he's had during his career. At this point there's not much point in debating him anymore, since his continued success at AAA isn't going to convince someone who thinks his stuff doesn't translate to the MLB level. All there is to do is wait until he actually gets the call to the Reds and see what happens.

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 02:08 AM
Nah, Maloney's problem isn't his velocity. It just that he doesn't have a + pitch.

My top 10 now are:
1.Frazier: Best bet to make it
2.Thompson: Shoulder worries keep him down but if he can perform in AAA, he may jump to number 1
3.Travis Wood: Sleeper who may put it together next year and has a + pitch.
4.Mes: I think we will like this guy by September
5.Lotzker: Big time arm, but VERY young
6.Valaika: Good contact potential but needs time
7.Bailey: Has fallen down the list with questionable fire and desire. Gavin Floyd may be the best his future looks.
8.Stubbs: Still has hitting questions, but controls the plate well
9.Francisco: Very raw, but with a ton of power
10.Roenicke: Key player for the Reds bullpen over the next several months

Right now everything looks on track from the 06 projections except Bailey has stagnated. Votto and Bruce did exactly what was hoped. Cueto was rushed a bit but looks on course. Sleepers like Janish may have value.

The Bailey problem is probably the number 1 thing to figure out.

Oxilon
05-28-2008, 02:16 AM
7.Bailey: Has fallen down the list with questionable fire and desire. Gavin Floyd may be the best his future looks.


Dude c'mon, exaggerate a little why don't you? Seriously, so he's had a few bad starts and now the bandwagon falls apart? I can't wait to come back in a couple months and read all these current Bailey posts. A lot of people are going to have to eat some crow.

And, for what it's worth, Gavin Floyd hasn't been too shabby this season. 60 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA and the dude almost came close to a couple no hitters already this season.

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 03:20 AM
Dude c'mon, exaggerate a little why don't you? Seriously, so he's had a few bad starts and now the bandwagon falls apart? I can't wait to come back in a couple months and read all these current Bailey posts. A lot of people are going to have to eat some crow.

And, for what it's worth, Gavin Floyd hasn't been too shabby this season. 60 IP with a sub 3.00 ERA and the dude almost came close to a couple no hitters already this season.

It is more than this year, he began to slide last year. Maybe he doesn't have desire issues, maybe he was a HGH pitcher and that was how he kept up high velocities.

Whatever, Homer hasn't thrown consistantly hard for 2 straight seasons(if not losing velocity) now which exposes his lack of a offspeed pitch and lack of movement. Homer's key was a heavy action fastball coming in at 94-98mph made by a long delivery. If you look at his minor league career, he has struggled when he throws in the low 90's. The higher up the chain you go, the more exposed that becomes.

The Reds have a decision to make with Bailey. Can he regain velocity in the bullpen? Should they wait him out to he is 25 like Gavin Floyld(The Phillies didn't)?

Decisions, decisions.

icehole3
05-28-2008, 06:28 AM
wait him out, he's just trying to get himself together, he'll be OK

camisadelgolf
05-28-2008, 09:58 AM
Okay, my top ten. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but I'm too lazy to look through the organization at the moment:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Todd Frazier
3. Juan Duran
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Travis Wood
8. Matt Maloney
9. Josh Roenicke
10. Kyle Lotzkar

Oxilon
05-28-2008, 12:44 PM
It is more than this year, he began to slide last year. Maybe he doesn't have desire issues, maybe he was a HGH pitcher and that was how he kept up high velocities.

Whatever, Homer hasn't thrown consistantly hard for 2 straight seasons(if not losing velocity) now which exposes his lack of a offspeed pitch and lack of movement. Homer's key was a heavy action fastball coming in at 94-98mph made by a long delivery. If you look at his minor league career, he has struggled when he throws in the low 90's. The higher up the chain you go, the more exposed that becomes.

The Reds have a decision to make with Bailey. Can he regain velocity in the bullpen? Should they wait him out to he is 25 like Gavin Floyld(The Phillies didn't)?

Decisions, decisions.

You have you're theories, and I have mine. Personally, I think Bailey is one stubborn SOB and that's a major reason for his lack luster performances thus far. He believes he should be in the majors right now and he's not. And instead of trying everything in his manpower to get up here, his thinking is he'll be up here sooner rather later no matter what he does, whether it be actually do all the work that comes with pitching every five days or reading a hunting magazine between innings.

And I may be in the small minority when I say this, but I believe Homer would actually relish playing in the bigs right now, atleast more so than he does playing at Louisville. It's almost as if he has a chip on his shoulder or a grudge against the FO for not letting him play up here right now.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 01:11 PM
Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 01:28 PM
Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

The trouble is, when Homer has had "better command", he still wasn't missing bats. The key is why he isn't missing bats. I think it is all velocity. Throw consistant mid-90's and he probably misses bats.

It would be interesting to track his strikeouts in AAA and chart his velocity.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 01:41 PM
The trouble is, when Homer has had "better command", he still wasn't missing bats. The key is why he isn't missing bats. I think it is all velocity. Throw consistant mid-90's and he probably misses bats.

It would be interesting to track his strikeouts in AAA and chart his velocity.


I think it's safe to assume he needs to spend the rest of the year in AAA.

His numbers don't jump out and scream "LOOK AT ME".

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 01:44 PM
I think it's safe to assume he needs to spend the rest of the year in AAA.

His numbers don't jump out and scream "LOOK AT ME".

I think it also screams: I don't have a major league quality changeup. If he did, his "weak" velocity wouldn't be so bad as he could mix pitches.

It just is disappointing to us fans that we thought he would be a fireballing phenom 2 years ago and that didn't turn out to be the case.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 02:25 PM
Bailey (going back to last year) now has 23 starts in AAA:

137 IP (5.9 per start)
113 K (7.42 K/9)....decent, but not overpowering.
61 BB (4.07 BB/9)....walks are down slightly, but still a little high.
112 H (7.36 H/9)
1.26 WHIP - not good, but walks are contributing to it.

Not missing bats. Not great command, but getting slightly better there. Getting hit, but not giving up too many long balls. Hopefully he's just BABIP unlucky and will get better with his command. He needs to shave off at least one walk per 9 innings.

For a starting pitcher, a 1.26 WHIP is quite good.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 03:26 PM
For a starting pitcher, a 1.26 WHIP is quite good.


Not in AAA.

Not from a top 10 prospect.

I would take 1.26 from Bailey in a heartbeat at the major league level.

DTCromer
05-28-2008, 03:28 PM
Okay, my top ten. I'm sure I'm forgetting someone, but I'm too lazy to look through the organization at the moment:

1. Homer Bailey
2. Todd Frazier
3. Juan Duran
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Drew Stubbs
6. Devin Mesoraco
7. Travis Wood
8. Matt Maloney
9. Josh Roenicke
10. Kyle Lotzkar
Homer doesn't deserve the top spot. I would give it to Todd Frazier and Daryl Thompson before Homer. At least they're both PERFORMING like top prospects should.

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 03:34 PM
I guess Homer deserves the top spot. I would give it to Todd Frazier and Daryl Thompson before Homer. At least they're both PERFORMING like top prospects should.

Thompson's performance has been a bit overblown. He has been fairly lucky and he isn't missing a overly impressive number of bats in AA. But for now, he shall be ahead of Bailey.

I used to call June sweeps month for minor leaguers because impressions can change alot. By July a majority of the season is over and guys usually are in full season readiness. Thompson could struggle in AAA while Bailey goes on another June surge(velocity related) as the weather warms. Maloney is another example of a pitcher at the time of his trade to the Reds, wasn't putting up overly impressive numbers then started missing bats at will after the trade.

I love June with minor league baseball. Put up or shut up time.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 03:39 PM
I would like to see Bailey's K and BB numbers in line with Maloney's. Granted Maloney is two full years older, but he was not a top 10 pick and is not considered the prospect that Bailey is considered.

Maloney (going back to last year) now with 13 starts at Louisville:

13 GS
71.2 IP (5.5 per start)...kind of low
72 K (9.04 K/9)....very nice
22 BB (2.76 BB/9)....decent
64 H (8.03 H/9)
1.20 WHIP

Based on just these number's and Bailey's, (plus the extra seasoning of Maloney) there is no doubt that Maloney is currently the man if Walt needs to dip down into Louisville for some starts.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 03:53 PM
Thompson's performance has been a bit overblown. He has been fairly lucky and he isn't missing a overly impressive number of bats in AA. But for now, he shall be ahead of Bailey.


I think it's premature to place Thompson over Bailey. In fact, I doubt he does any better at AAA than Homer is currently doing.

Thompson is 23. Bailey is 22. Bailey is a former top 10 pick and consensus top 50 prospect. Thompson is not.

Homer also up similar numbers in Chattanooga at the age of 20 in 2006 as Thompson this year at 23.



Thompson in 2008 (23 yrs old)

10 GS
61.1 IP (6.1 per start)
56 K (8.22 K/9)
14 BB (2.05 BB/9)
44 H (6.45 H/9)
.95 WHIP

Bailey in 2006 (20 yrs old)

13 GS
68 IP (5.23 per start)....very low due to command issues.
77 K (10.19 K/9)
28 BB (3.70 BB/9)
50 H (6.62 H/9)
1.15 WHIP

How would I rank them as overall prospects (ceiling):

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Wood
4. Maloney

How would I rank them as ready for the reds today:

1. Maloney
2. Bailey
3. Thompson
4. Wood

Aronchis
05-28-2008, 03:59 PM
I think it's premature to place Thompson over Bailey. In fact, I doubt he does any better at AAA than Homer is currently doing.

Thompson is 23. Bailey is 22. Bailey is a former top 10 pick and consensus top 50 prospect. Thompson is not.

Homer also up similar numbers in Chattanooga at the age of 20 in 2006 as Thompson this year at 23.



Thompson in 2008 (23 yrs old)

10 GS
61.1 IP (6.1 per start)
56 K (8.22 K/9)
14 BB (2.05 BB/9)
44 H (6.45 H/9)
.95 WHIP

Bailey in 2006 (20 yrs old)

13 GS
68 IP (5.23 per start)....very low due to command issues.
77 K (10.19 K/9)
28 BB (3.70 BB/9)
50 H (6.62 H/9)
1.15 WHIP

How would I rank them as overall prospects (ceiling):

1. Bailey
2. Thompson
3. Wood
4. Maloney

How would I rank them as ready for the reds today:

1. Maloney
2. Bailey
3. Thompson
4. Wood

It wasn't due to command issues, Homer was on a pitch count. He missed more bats than Thompson and allowed less hits. Matter of fact, if you take away a tuneup start gone bad in a cool September night, his H/9 was even better as was his walks(24 in 68I's isn't great, but hardly horrible).

Thompson in AAA will be interesting.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-28-2008, 04:08 PM
It wasn't due to command issues, Homer was on a pitch count. He missed more bats than Thompson and allowed less hits. Matter of fact, if you take away a tuneup start gone bad in a cool September night, his H/9 was even better as was his walks(24 in 68I's isn't great, but hardly horrible).

Interesting. I forgot he was on a pitch count.

Blitz Dorsey
05-28-2008, 05:15 PM
You may be right, but I bet BA would disagree.

Stubbs was at #100 coming into the season, and his stock has risen. With a large number of (former) prospects having graduated to the makors, and would now be off the list, it would surprise me to see that Stubbs would sit in the 60's or 70's range. I doubt Thompson would be listed "miles ahead of that".

Higher chance of making the major leagues?

I would be astounded in Stubbs doesn't (eventually) see some time in the majors. His fielding skills and speed pretty much assures he'll have a life as a #4 OF even if he never hits much.

How has Stubbs' stock risen since the beginning of the season? If anything I would argue it has dropped. He is having another poor year and this time there are no injury excuses.

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%20Stubbs&pos=LF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211

I was shocked to see that Stubbs was ranked No. 100 coming into the year, but he won't be ranked in the top 100 any longer. And don't forget he's in high-A ball right now when a 2006 first-round draft pick out of college should be at least in AAA or the Majors. So, not only is he putting up weak stats again, he's doing it at a very low level for his age/draft position.

Drew Stubbs will make it to the Majors one day and will have some cups of coffee here and there. But he will never be an everyday starter in MLB IMO.

Blitz Dorsey
05-28-2008, 05:27 PM
I think people are underestimating how good Stubbs has been this year, as he is back on the map as a prospect, IMO. He will be a major leaguer no matter what, with his GG defense, speed, base stealing abilities, and amazing ability to take a walk. Plus, he has been hitting fairly well in a pitchers league. Now we just need the power to come around. I am in the minority, but my Top 5 is Bailey-Frazier-Stubbs-Thompson-Mez

We'll agree to disagree that .274 with 2 HRs is "hitting fairly well" for a first-round draft pick playing in high A ball two years removed from the draft. Oh yeah, and he was a three-year college player. If Stubbs was putting up these numbers at AAA then I could buy what you are selling. As is, he is far behind schedule and shouldn't be counted on for anything until he proves he can play well at high A and beyond. At some point I want to stop hearing about tools and start hearing about production from Drew Stubbs. I think it's great he walks a lot (.370 OBP is solid), is a good baserunner (17 steals, 4 CS) and a good defender. But the kid can't hit a lick. And if he's just a so-so hitter at high-A ball at this age, he is really going to be a bad hitter in the Majors. I hope he proves me wrong because I would love to see the Reds have a good RHH OF just for depth if nothing else.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 05:56 PM
We'll agree to disagree that .274 with 2 HRs is "hitting fairly well" for a first-round draft pick playing in high A ball two years removed from the draft. Oh yeah, and he was a three-year college player. If Stubbs was putting up these numbers at AAA then I could buy what you are selling. As is, he is far behind schedule and shouldn't be counted on for anything until he proves he can play well at high A and beyond. At some point I want to stop hearing about tools and start hearing about production from Drew Stubbs. I think it's great he walks a lot (.370 OBP is solid), is a good baserunner (17 steals, 4 CS) and a good defender. But the kid can't hit a lick. And if he's just a so-so hitter at high-A ball at this age, he is really going to be a bad hitter in the Majors. I hope he proves me wrong because I would love to see the Reds have a good RHH OF just for depth if nothing else.

Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?

crazyredfan40
05-28-2008, 07:17 PM
Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?

Stubbs...I continue to read and read all the negative thoughts about Stubbs and I just don't understand them...Some need to wrap their head around the word potential, and that is what Stubbs has...He doesn't hit for a great average, like say .300, but he gets on base and the key is to not make outs...

He can run, play defense, take a walk, the only thing he really struggles at is hitting, but as Doug has continued to say he still has a good line drive rate, and I think the power numbers could go up a little bit when he gets out of Sarasota as it is not a power league...Also remember that the whole team has slumped as of late...

I understand that some are still upset about the fact that we didn't draft someone else, and they want more out of a first round draft pick, but Stubbs has the potential to be a solid major league player for us, and we will have the power positions filled, and we need a guy in CF to cover ground, get on base and make things happen...Just the type of player that Stubbs is...He can obviously take a walk, so the problem to me is when swinging he misses too much, don't think he is chasing bad pitches...If the K rate can dip He will be a very good player for us, with what we need...Not every prospect can be Jay Bruce...

dougdirt
05-28-2008, 08:13 PM
Stubbs is in the best pitchers league in baseball and is producing better than he did last year and his stock has dropped?

crazyredfan40
05-28-2008, 09:10 PM
Stubbs is in the best pitchers league in baseball and is producing better than he did last year and his stock has dropped?

Yeah I don't understand it either...I think he must be too old...

RedlegJake
05-29-2008, 12:01 AM
I think Chattanooga will define Stubbs better. Right now he's in a very, very pitching freindly league and still producing okay. I have a feeling that he'll put up better numbers in AA and then you'll see his stock rise swiftly.

Dan
05-29-2008, 11:49 AM
Stubbs...I continue to read and read all the negative thoughts about Stubbs and I just don't understand them...Some need to wrap their head around the word potential, and that is what Stubbs has...

No offense, but potential has never won a championship. At some point, potential has to be translated into production, and Stubbs doesn't seem to be doing that.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-29-2008, 12:07 PM
I think Chattanooga will define Stubbs better. Right now he's in a very, very pitching freindly league and still producing okay. I have a feeling that he'll put up better numbers in AA and then you'll see his stock rise swiftly.


Agree, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him compete for that open CF spot in spring training.

crazyredfan40
05-29-2008, 12:25 PM
No offense, but potential has never won a championship. At some point, potential has to be translated into production, and Stubbs doesn't seem to be doing that.

Well obviously, but sometimes it takes time, and when he is putting up the same or better numbers in a pitchers league you would have to think that is some production...

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 12:51 PM
No offense, but potential has never won a championship. At some point, potential has to be translated into production, and Stubbs doesn't seem to be doing that.

Except he is doing just that. Not everyone is going to be Jay Bruce. Guys don't hit in the FSL too often. It just doesn't happen. While Ryan Braun was a year younger than Stubbs when he was in the FSL, he had an OPS of 778 there in half a season.... he was then promoted to AA and got out of that pitchers haven and put up an OPS of 956 in the second half. The FSL generally eats hitters alive and the fact that Stubbs is holding his own and not falling flat on his face is a big step.

TRF
05-29-2008, 02:21 PM
Except he is doing just that. Not everyone is going to be Jay Bruce. Guys don't hit in the FSL too often. It just doesn't happen. While Ryan Braun was a year younger than Stubbs when he was in the FSL, he had an OPS of 778 there in half a season.... he was then promoted to AA and got out of that pitchers haven and put up an OPS of 956 in the second half. The FSL generally eats hitters alive and the fact that Stubbs is holding his own and not falling flat on his face is a big step.

Nice comparison. Except Braun had a 1041 OPS at Low A. Stubbs wasn't within a light year of that. That Stubbs isn't hitting at High A isn't surprising because he didn't hit at Low A or Rookie ball either.

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 02:30 PM
Nice comparison. Except Braun had a 1041 OPS at Low A. Stubbs wasn't within a light year of that. That Stubbs isn't hitting at High A isn't surprising because he didn't hit at Low A or Rookie ball either.

So because Braun was good in Low A but 'sucked' in the FSL to the same tune that Stubbs is 'sucking' means that Braun didn't 'suck' but Stubbs still does? Stubbs in fact made dramatic improvements in the second half of last season in Dayton, to the tune of a .913 OPS. Then this year he goes to the FSL and is doing just fine given the league and its history, but because he didn't hit well enough for some in Dayton, what he is doing in the FSL is brushed off? Sorry, I fail to see that logic.

Drew Stubbs is hitting just fine in a league that eats hitters up and most of whom go on to AA and hit much better than they did in Sarasota. It has been seen over and over again that when guys leave the FSL they generally hit much better at the next step.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-29-2008, 02:30 PM
I am intrigued by Chris Heisey. He was taken in the same draft as Stubbs (17th round), is the same age, and has freakishly similar numbers at every level. In fact, if anything Heisey has had slightLY more success as a hitter.

How does he field and what position does he project to play? Seeing as he and Stubbs are always playing together and Stubbs, of course is going to play CF, would Heisey be considered a CF candidate?

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 02:33 PM
I am intrigued by Chris Heisey. He was taken in the same draft as Stubbs (17th round), is the same age, and has freakishly similar numbers at every level. In fact, if anything Heisey has had slight more success as a hitter.

How does he field and what position does he project to play? Seeing as he and Stubbs are always playing together and Stubbs, of course, is going to play CF, is would Heisey be considered a CF candidate?

Heisey could play CF, but not really at the same level that Stubbs can. Heisey I see as a guy would could handle it, but isn't going to be a plus guy there. He is a very interesting prospect though. If he keeps progressing, he will be a major leaguer.

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2008, 02:40 PM
Heisey is looking like another possible Denorfia. Similar skill sets and both were late round picks.

TRF
05-29-2008, 03:02 PM
So because Braun was good in Low A but 'sucked' in the FSL to the same tune that Stubbs is 'sucking' means that Braun didn't 'suck' but Stubbs still does? Stubbs in fact made dramatic improvements in the second half of last season in Dayton, to the tune of a .913 OPS. Then this year he goes to the FSL and is doing just fine given the league and its history, but because he didn't hit well enough for some in Dayton, what he is doing in the FSL is brushed off? Sorry, I fail to see that logic.

Drew Stubbs is hitting just fine in a league that eats hitters up and most of whom go on to AA and hit much better than they did in Sarasota. It has been seen over and over again that when guys leave the FSL they generally hit much better at the next step.

Braun had a history of hitting that Stubbs never had. that the both struggled at the same level shows the difficulty of the level, but it isn't indicative of future performance.

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 03:06 PM
Braun had a history of hitting that Stubbs never had. that the both struggled at the same level shows the difficulty of the level, but it isn't indicative of future performance.

I don't think I ever made a comment that he would go Ryan Braun, just that even very good hitters struggle in the FSL, so the fact that Stubbs is holding his own would actually suggest improvement and strong performance rather than poor performance.

TRF
05-29-2008, 03:12 PM
And i think the comparison is too broad. Some guys just hit, some scuffle. Sometimes it's the league and sometimes it's the player. Valaika did fine in the FSL. Dominated in fact. Sometimes it's the sample size.

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 03:18 PM
And i think the comparison is too broad. Some guys just hit, some scuffle. Sometimes it's the league and sometimes it's the player. Valaika did fine in the FSL. Dominated in fact. Sometimes it's the sample size.

Valaika hit like crap his first go around. He hit very well his second time in the league. Fact is, the FSL doesn't allow too many guys to hit there. When a legit prospect, and despite what half of Redszone wants to think, Drew Stubbs is indeed that, holds his own in the FSL its viewed as quite a good thing.

Kc61
05-29-2008, 03:22 PM
Valaika hit like crap his first go around. He hit very well his second time in the league. Fact is, the FSL doesn't allow too many guys to hit there. When a legit prospect, and despite what half of Redszone wants to think, Drew Stubbs is indeed that, holds his own in the FSL its viewed as quite a good thing.

Nothing against Stubbs who is likely going to be a major leaguer because true centerfielders with decent on base skills are valuable.

But isn't it odd that his offensive performance is always excused by some external factor -- injury, the league. It's always something.

Reality -- guy is a good centerfield prospect who shows good on base skills but developing major league hitting ability is proving to be a challenge.

dfs
05-29-2008, 03:30 PM
It looks like Gil is replacing Bruce in Louisville.
That's interesting. When the change in GM's came and he went to the lookouts and didn't play for a couple of days, I just figured he was gone.

I suspect he needs to hit and hit now in order to have any kind of career.

I'm glad somebody else brought up Maloney. That way I didn't have to do it.

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 03:46 PM
Nothing against Stubbs who is likely going to be a major leaguer because true centerfielders with decent on base skills are valuable.

But isn't it odd that his offensive performance is always excused by some external factor -- injury, the league. It's always something.

Reality -- guy is a good centerfield prospect who shows good on base skills but developing major league hitting ability is proving to be a challenge.

I don't really think its odd that his offensive performance has had circumstances surrounding it because both of them are absolutely true. I don't think he is ever going to be a real good hitter because of the strikeouts, but I think he will be an average hitting CF in the majors.

redhawk61
05-29-2008, 03:49 PM
I don't really think its odd that his offensive performance has had circumstances surrounding it because both of them are absolutely true. I don't think he is ever going to be a real good hitter because of the strikeouts, but I think he will be an average hitting CF in the majors.

I feel the same way, I see him moving up the ladder hitting around .280 or so in AA and AAA but once getting the call up, hitting around the same clip that he is now .260-.270 with a .360-.370 obp stealing 40+ bags and playing GG defense, which will be just fine by me

Blitz Dorsey
05-29-2008, 08:37 PM
Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.) I just want him to be not two-years at least behind schedule for a player drafted No. 9 overall. The guy is struggling with the bat in high A ball two years after he was drafted out of college. The argument that "Well, the only thing he doesn't do well is hit" is quite humorous to me. It's akin to, "She's really hot, except her face and body."

Drew Stubbs is not good and it was a huge reach to take him when we did. He will make the Major Leagues eventually but will never be an everyday starter. I have said my peace. Rip away.

Blitz Dorsey
05-29-2008, 08:48 PM
Stubbs has 54 Ks in 179 at bats. You can get away with a lot of Ks if you produce like Adam Dunn. When you don't provide huge power numbers, you have to make better contact. Everybody got excited about Stubbs' hitting when he choked up on the bat at the end of last year. But you have to be concerned with this year's performance so far.

On the same team, Juan Francisco is generally disfavored around here because he doesn't walk, and it is a big issue with him. But he's two and a half years younger, produces much more, and strikes out less. Who's the better prospect?

Just when you think Stubbs might have a future as a contact hitter/speed guy (despite his large frame) you remember the alarming rate in which he strikes out. And you're right, if he was a power hitter I could live with it. But 2 HRs in almost 200 ABs in high A ball? The guy is just not getting it done and the excuses are falling on deaf ears at this point.

dougdirt
05-29-2008, 11:40 PM
Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.)
Drew Stubbs is not good. Rip away.

No one hits in the FSL outside of Jay Bruce is the point I was trying to make. Go back and look at the history of the league.... guys just don't hit there. Good players, very good players.... don't hit there.

Ryan Braun - Age 22 - hit .273/.342/.436 in the FSL.

Ryan Howard - Age 23 - hit .304/.374/.514

Chase Utley - Age 22 - hit .257/.324/.422

Russell Martin - Age 21 - hit .250/.366/.421

Chris Duncan - Age 22 - hit .254/.322/.315

Alex Rios - Age 21 - hit .304/.344/.408

Guys generally don't excel in the FSL, they survive it and thrive when they leave it. The ones that excel in the FSL are rare cases.

Drew Stubbs is fine. .270/.370/.405 in the FSL is a line that certainly is not an issue. He has struck out 55 times in 216 times to the plate. Not impressive or anything, thats 25.7% of the time. Everyones favorite, Todd Frazier currently has 21 strikeouts in 85 times to the plate, or 24.7%. Yeah, there is an age difference there of course, but still, no one is making much fuss about it right now. I think that people really underestimate just how difficult the FSL is on hitters when they look at Stubbs line and think he is struggling.

Aronchis
05-30-2008, 04:45 AM
I remember on a Brewers fansite them getting pissed during a AA game later that year that Bailey blew Braun a kiss and then proceeded to strike him out. My how times have changed. Braun has become a mega-star. He didn't look that great in 2006.

Stubbs will be ok right now. If he gets another hot streak going, perfect time to send him to AA.

crazyredfan40
05-30-2008, 09:15 AM
Who said anything about Drew Stubbs being Jay Bruce? (All the "Not everyone can be Jay Bruce" BS.) I just want him to be not two-years at least behind schedule for a player drafted No. 9 overall. The guy is struggling with the bat in high A ball two years after he was drafted out of college. The argument that "Well, the only thing he doesn't do well is hit" is quite humorous to me. It's akin to, "She's really hot, except her face and body."

Drew Stubbs is not good and it was a huge reach to take him when we did. He will make the Major Leagues eventually but will never be an everyday starter. I have said my peace. Rip away.

To say he is not good is quite the reach as well...

TRF
05-30-2008, 09:41 AM
No one hits in the FSL outside of Jay Bruce is the point I was trying to make. Go back and look at the history of the league.... guys just don't hit there. Good players, very good players.... don't hit there.

Ryan Braun - Age 22 - hit .273/.342/.436 in the FSL.

Ryan Howard - Age 23 - hit .304/.374/.514

Chase Utley - Age 22 - hit .257/.324/.422

Russell Martin - Age 21 - hit .250/.366/.421

Chris Duncan - Age 22 - hit .254/.322/.315

Alex Rios - Age 21 - hit .304/.344/.408

Guys generally don't excel in the FSL, they survive it and thrive when they leave it. The ones that excel in the FSL are rare cases.

Drew Stubbs is fine. .270/.370/.405 in the FSL is a line that certainly is not an issue. He has struck out 55 times in 216 times to the plate. Not impressive or anything, thats 25.7% of the time. Everyones favorite, Todd Frazier currently has 21 strikeouts in 85 times to the plate, or 24.7%. Yeah, there is an age difference there of course, but still, no one is making much fuss about it right now. I think that people really underestimate just how difficult the FSL is on hitters when they look at Stubbs line and think he is struggling.

You keep leaving out these guys' Low A numbers. They have a history of hitting prior to High A that Stubbs does not have. You are applying a scenario without all the facts. Do hitters struggle in the FSL? generally, yes. Does that mean they'll succeed at AA? uh, no. The guys you listed, sure, but Stubbs? with very little record of being able to hit? That's still to be determined. I'm not worried about his OBP, I'm concerned about his ability to put bat on ball, as it's certain he won't be a power hitter.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 12:04 PM
You keep leaving out these guys' Low A numbers. They have a history of hitting prior to High A that Stubbs does not have. You are applying a scenario without all the facts. Do hitters struggle in the FSL? generally, yes. Does that mean they'll succeed at AA? uh, no. The guys you listed, sure, but Stubbs? with very little record of being able to hit? That's still to be determined. I'm not worried about his OBP, I'm concerned about his ability to put bat on ball, as it's certain he won't be a power hitter.

And you keep ignoring the fact that Stubbs is not doing what these guys did and completely bomb in High A like most of them did compared to their low A stats. Guys went from .850-.950 OPS in Low A to .770 OPS in the FSL to .900 OPS in AA. Stubbs went from .770 OPS in Low A to a .770 OPS in the FSL, absolutely no fall off, and you seem to think its a terrible thing that unlike others he hasn't fallen off but rather just stayed the same.

As for a history of hitting.... you pretend like guys in the minor leagues are finished products or something. As if they don't learn anything, they just continue on at the same pace they were at. It doesn't work like that. Drew Stubbs, over the last 35% of his minor league at bats coming into the year had an OPS over .900. That to me, shows signs of improvement. What he is doing this year in the FSL, shows signs of improvement.

As for him not being a power hitter, I don't think anyone ever thought he would be a power hitter. People made Mike Cameron comparisons, but I think realistically people were expecting 20-25 HR, which for a CFer is strong. I still think he could fall in line with that in a few years given GABP.

HokieRed
05-30-2008, 12:17 PM
I've been, and continue to be, a Stubbs fan and defender. I'm sticking to my prediction that he ends the year in L'ville. But here's an interesting question: if Wayne had taken Lincecum rather than Stubbs, would he still be the GM? I tend to think the answer is yes.

TRF
05-30-2008, 12:30 PM
And you keep ignoring the fact that Stubbs is not doing what these guys did and completely bomb in High A like most of them did compared to their low A stats. Guys went from .850-.950 OPS in Low A to .770 OPS in the FSL to .900 OPS in AA. Stubbs went from .770 OPS in Low A to a .770 OPS in the FSL, absolutely no fall off, and you seem to think its a terrible thing that unlike others he hasn't fallen off but rather just stayed the same.

As for a history of hitting.... you pretend like guys in the minor leagues are finished products or something. As if they don't learn anything, they just continue on at the same pace they were at. It doesn't work like that. Drew Stubbs, over the last 35% of his minor league at bats coming into the year had an OPS over .900. That to me, shows signs of improvement. What he is doing this year in the FSL, shows signs of improvement.

As for him not being a power hitter, I don't think anyone ever thought he would be a power hitter. People made Mike Cameron comparisons, but I think realistically people were expecting 20-25 HR, which for a CFer is strong. I still think he could fall in line with that in a few years given GABP.

And you are taking two months at High A and equating it to a full season.,which is ridiculous. He COULD continue at a .770 OPS rate, and he could regress. The point is you have anointed him a success when he's far from it. In May he has a .590 OPS. That's awful for any player in any league period. Doug, the guy has had 3 1/2 good months now in his third professional season.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 12:56 PM
And you are taking two months at High A and equating it to a full season.,which is ridiculous. He COULD continue at a .770 OPS rate, and he could regress. The point is you have anointed him a success when he's far from it. In May he has a .590 OPS. That's awful for any player in any league period. Doug, the guy has had 3 1/2 good months now in his third professional season.

His May has been quite an unlucky one. He is boasting a 21% line drive rate in May, the exact same strikeout rate as in April and has a BABIP of .274. If he is going to continue to post that line drive rate, a walk rate of 15% and strikeout 25% of the time, he will put up strong numbers. The first two weeks of May Drew slumped big time.... despite have a line drive rate over 30% for the span, he hit under .175. That is just wrong on many different levels. He has started turning his May around a little bit and things are correcting themselves. Over his last 10 games he is hitting .310 with 11 walks and 6 strikeouts. The one problem is he hasn't had an XBH since May 14th. Still, I am going to continue to say, if he holds steady his LD rate, his walk rate and his strikeout rate, he will OPS over .800 this year in the FSL. It would be very hard not to do that if he keeps up those rates.

TRF
05-30-2008, 01:00 PM
His May has been quite an unlucky one. He is boasting a 21% line drive rate in May, the exact same strikeout rate as in April and has a BABIP of .274. If he is going to continue to post that line drive rate, a walk rate of 15% and strikeout 25% of the time, he will put up strong numbers. The first two weeks of May Drew slumped big time.... despite have a line drive rate over 30% for the span, he hit under .175. That is just wrong on many different levels. He has started turning his May around a little bit and things are correcting themselves. Over his last 10 games he is hitting .310 with 11 walks and 6 strikeouts. The one problem is he hasn't had an XBH since May 14th. Still, I am going to continue to say, if he holds steady his LD rate, his walk rate and his strikeout rate, he will OPS over .800 this year in the FSL. It would be very hard not to do that if he keeps up those rates.

if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 01:24 PM
if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.

Well sure, if this or that, but here is whats going on. At a higher, much more difficult level and environment Drew Stubbs has a better walk rate, DOUBLED his line drive rate, stuck with a very similar strikeout rate and put up much better stolen base numbers (probably because the guy can run now).

His April wasn't really tremendously lucky. He had a 31% line drive rate, that alone would project to a .430 BABIP. Couple that with guys with really good wheels get an additional boost from the few singles they can leg out on infield grounders and he wasn't really all that lucky with his April. Looking at May, he has been unlucky though, given his 21% line drive rate which would alone project a .330 BABIP and couple it with his wheels and it should probably be closer to .350 and its now at .270. Thats 80 points, thats fairly unlucky. Normalize that and he would be hitting .257/.368/.333 in May. Still, nothing to write home about because of the lack of power, but just normalizing his numbers based on what they likely should be and his .599 OPS jumps to .701 and his seasonal line would go to .297/.384/.432. I really think he is going to put up a line similar to that if he continues with his season rates he has going right now, which he has shown through now two months that he is doing a fairly good job of.

crazyredfan40
05-30-2008, 01:42 PM
if, if, if. I don't see it. He had a tremendously lucky April, an unlucky May, though his babip was only 30ish point lower than a normal babip.

He's a guy with serious contact issues and a skillset that screams leadoff hitter. but once guys realize he can't hit their good stuff his OBP will drop hard, because guys won't pitch around him at all. they don't have to.

Look at Doug's numbers he continues to put...He has stats to back up his thoughts, it is not if...There is potential there and if he makes the jump from A+ to AA and continues hitting the ball the way he is now everything is going to go up and then you will be right back on the bandwagon...There is too much potential, and things that he has done this far, especially considering him playing with his injury all last year to write him off like too many people do...

I am not saying I wouldn't love to see him hitting .300 and OBP of .400 and OPSing .900, but if he can put up an OPS of around .800 in A+ the common theme is that number will increase in AA and I think that if he could stay consistent, I would love a CF in Cincy with his defense, speed, OBP, and OPSing around .825...That would be just what the doctor ordered with power positions filled in RF, LF, 1B, 3B(EE or Frazier)...

lollipopcurve
05-30-2008, 01:59 PM
I think it's pretty safe to say that while Stubbs hasn't busted out big numbers this year, neither has he busted, as some predicted he would. He remains in a gray area where we still don't have a good sense of what he'll turn out to be. I'm pretty sure as long as he maintains his current level of production he'll be promoted on a yearly basis, whether he's with the Reds or not.

TRF
05-30-2008, 02:03 PM
except that LD% rate isn't sustainable, nor is his BABIP. He is contact challenged and power deficient. Having a good walk rate won't help him if he can't hit. He's starting to look a lot like a CF version of Anderson Machado. Feel free to pick apart that comparison, but it kinda fits. Low BA, decent OBP relative to his BA, but not great overall, no power.

TRF
05-30-2008, 02:06 PM
I think it's pretty safe to say that while Stubbs hasn't busted out big numbers this year, neither has he busted, as some predicted he would. He remains in a gray area where we still don't have a good sense of what he'll turn out to be. I'm pretty sure as long as he maintains his current level of production he'll be promoted on a yearly basis, whether he's with the Reds or not.

look at his May numbers. blech.

.195BA .314OBP .276SLG .590OPS

Anyone really think he's going to OPS north of .800 the rest of the year? really?

lollipopcurve
05-30-2008, 02:32 PM
look at his May numbers. blech.

.195BA .314OBP .276SLG .590OPS

I'll take the whole sample size, thanks.

What does Todd Frazier's downturn tell you?

TRF
05-30-2008, 02:40 PM
I'll take the whole sample size, thanks.

What does Todd Frazier's downturn tell you? more and less than Stubbs. Frazier is adjusting to a new league 1 1/2 months into this season. Stubbs is in his 3rd professional season and trends are clearly forming. Contact challenged. No power. good BB rate poor hit rate.

crazyredfan40
05-30-2008, 02:45 PM
look at his May numbers. blech.

.195BA .314OBP .276SLG .590OPS

Anyone really think he's going to OPS north of .800 the rest of the year? really?

Did you read Doug's post...What is so hard to understand about it...Guys slump, one month of unlucky hitting does not tell the whole tale...

Patience is a virtue my friend...

And the Machado comparison is way off...His career OPS in the minors was 673...Not quite up there with Stubbs career .782...

Every category, AVG., OBP., SLG, and OPS are above his career averages this year at this point...This too go along with a hitters league and being unlucky and I don't see where all the angst and there not being reason for optimism...

He is also the type that can get you 40 stolen bases a year, so what is going to happen, IMHO...Is pitchers will come to strike zone more often, seeing that he is a high k guy and likes to take walks, with not a great amount of power...This should give him more good pitches to hit...Just due his speed and ability to take a walk...

I still think the big question will be how he does in AA when he is promoted...

TRF
05-30-2008, 02:52 PM
re-read my posts. he's had 3 1/2 good months in his professional career. that's it.

crazyredfan40
05-30-2008, 03:03 PM
re-read my posts. he's had 3 1/2 good months in his professional career. that's it.

He also played hurt all of last season...Why do you discard that?

Once again there is more to his game than just hitting as well...While he struggled some last year at the plate, he still led the entire league in runs scored...Gotta get on to score runs...He is doing something right...

TRF
05-30-2008, 03:06 PM
that's why the comparison to Machado is appropriate. Machado could field well too.

BTW, Stubbs didn't hit in the pioneer league either.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 03:18 PM
except that LD% rate isn't sustainable, nor is his BABIP. He is contact challenged and power deficient. Having a good walk rate won't help him if he can't hit. He's starting to look a lot like a CF version of Anderson Machado. Feel free to pick apart that comparison, but it kinda fits. Low BA, decent OBP relative to his BA, but not great overall, no power.

Why is his LD% not sustainable? I can't begin to go into his BABIP not being sustainable until you tell me the answer to the first question.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 03:20 PM
that's why the comparison to Machado is appropriate. Machado could field well too.

BTW, Stubbs didn't hit in the pioneer league either.

Stubbs was playing injured in the PL as well..... *ducks and covers*.

That came straight from the Billings Mustangs GM, who in no way shape or form is affiliated with anything to do with the Reds other than their players play for his team.

TRF
05-30-2008, 03:21 PM
Has anyone ever sustained that kind of LD%? By sustained I mean keep it there every month for his entire career. I don't mean it's there for a month then regresses to the mean.

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 03:23 PM
re-read my posts. he's had 3 1/2 good months in his professional career. that's it.

Thats not really true. His May last year was good, then July and August were good last year. That doesn't cover anything this year nor anything in Billings (where I can no longer find his splits, but know he had a month of an .800 OPS there).

dougdirt
05-30-2008, 03:28 PM
Has anyone ever sustained that kind of LD%? By sustained I mean keep it there every month for his entire career. I don't mean it's there for a month then regresses to the mean.

Well, not that there is more than about 2-3 years worth of data available on minor league line drive rates, but lets just look at a few Reds guys....

Jay Bruce went 16% in Dayton, then 21% in Sarasota, then 22% in Louisville last year. This year he went up to 34% in Louisville.

Joey Votto went 17% in AA to 23% in Louisville to 34% in his Cincy call up to 21% this year so far.

Adam Dunn is generally around 20% in the majors, not sure what he was doing in the minors.

That said, I would say a 20-25% line drive rate is sustainable.