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OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:48 PM
That is some serious fire power right there. IMO these are the three guys the Reds need to build the offense around. Sign Dunn to a three or four year deal and watch him consistently give you 40+ homeruns and a .380+ OBP. He's cutting down on his K's and has his K/BB ratio right around 1:1 which means he's growing as a hitter. Just think how scary he can be if he continues to get better than he already is.

Votto is proving right now that he can be a great major league hitter for a long time. Despite going through a recent slump he's still hitting .273/.339/.533 - .873 OPS and is on pace for 30+ doubles and 30+ homeruns. He'll eventually be a .375-.380+ OBP guy who belts 30 homeruns and OPS's .900. His ability to use all the fields will make him a great hitter for a long time.

Jay Bruce is the guy who will be the best hitter of them all IMO. He's got a chance to be a .325 type hitter who hits 40-45 doubles and around 40 homeruns. Like Votto, Bruce is not afraid to use the whole field as he's got exceptional power to all parts of the field. He won't hit for that high of an average right now but he profiles as that type of hitter.

You put those three guys together in a lineup and you have a great nucleus to build around. The Reds need a RH power bat in there to compensate the lefties but I think Brandon Phillips and either Edwin Encarnacion or Todd Frazier can be that guy. Phillips is proving his power is not a fluke as he's on pace for roughly 30 homeruns and 40 doubles. He also seems to be improving his plate discipline (on pace for 46 walks). If he learns to lay off the slider down and away from RH pitchers then he could really become a true superstar. I like Edwin Encarnacion a lot but if the Reds decide to keep Dunn then they may look to trade Encarnacion and make Todd Frazier the 3B of the future. Either way, both those guys have good pop from the right side and can get on base.

Basically what the Reds need is a shortstop, a center fielder who can cover a lot of ground and get on base at a decent clip, and a good defensive catcher. The way I see it, Paul Janish could be the SS of the future if the Reds can find a center fielder who can hit.

flyer85
05-27-2008, 01:51 PM
and this year both Votto(OPS 998) and Dunn(OPS 854) have hit well off of lefties. Jr is one who has really struggled (OPS 567).

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:55 PM
and this year both Votto(OPS 998) and Dunn(OPS 854) have hit well off of lefties. Jr is one who has really struggled (OPS 567).

Yep. Bruce also hits lefties well. I know there aren't a lot of great lefties in the minors but a 1.071 OPS against lefties is impressive, no matter what level.

flyer85
05-27-2008, 01:57 PM
Dusty's lineup construction gives pitchers a break ... I am guessing that the three will be far apart giving the pitcher time to get the other outs needed. I know Snell would not like to have to wade through them in the 3-4-5 spots tonight.

RedsManRick
05-27-2008, 01:58 PM
Sign Dunn, keep Bruce in CF until his actual play merits a move, shift EE or Frazier to RF and you can keep everybody.

I think Junior's horrific lack of range in RF has really exacerbated the CF problem. Put a good RF in place and an average-plus guy like Bruce makes the OF defense much less of a problem, especially given those bats.

It would also let you carry Janish as your SS without having two black holes in the lineup. Let's be realistic; there aren't good-OBP plus defending CF available. Conceptually it's a great idea, but they just aren't out there to be had. Utilizing Bruce in CF and finding a better RF solution seems like the best approach to me.

I know we lack a true leadoff hitter -- something which is bound to make Dusty bat Janish up at the top, but I'd love to see his hand forced by taking away those god-awful options.

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 02:03 PM
That is some serious fire power right there. IMO these are the three guys the Reds need to build the offense around.

You put those three guys together in a lineup and you have a great nucleus to build around.

I have changed my mind since Raisors poll on Dunn, I would like to see the Reds retain his services to play as a group of Dunn, Votto, Bruce and Phillips, especially believing that Jocketty removes the rest of the inconsistent one or two dimensional deadwood for better players in due time, and bring those better players whoever they might be in time to play along with them, it’s seem to me that it might be an exciting time to be a Reds fan. Of course I assume that Jocketty will improve the defense and pitching to go along with them.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 02:07 PM
I think we just need to cross our fingers and pray that Drew Stubbs pans out. One thing he can do is play gold glove caliber defense and get on base. Even with all his struggles last season he still got on base at a respectable .364 clip. This year he's at .373. His power isn't developing yet but his OBP skills are nice. If he can play gold glove defense, get on base at a .360+ clip and steal 30 bases in the majors then he could really be one of the better center fielders in the league. Best case scenario is he's ready to take over CF by 2010.

Another intriguing CF option is Shaun Cumberland. He's a 23-year old prospect currently hitting .294/.396/.522 - .918 OPS in AA Chattanooga and he can play some solid center field.

Will M
05-27-2008, 02:15 PM
Sign Dunn, keep Bruce in CF until his actual play merits a move, shift EE or Frazier to RF and you can keep everybody.

I think Junior's horrific lack of range in RF has really exacerbated the CF problem. Put a good RF in place and an average-plus guy like Bruce makes the OF defense much less of a problem, especially given those bats.

It would also let you carry Janish as your SS without having two black holes in the lineup. Let's be realistic; there aren't good-OBP plus defending CF available. Conceptually it's a great idea, but they just aren't out there to be had. Utilizing Bruce in CF and finding a better RF solution seems like the best approach to me.

I know we lack a true leadoff hitter -- something which is bound to make Dusty bat Janish up at the top, but I'd love to see his hand forced by taking away those god-awful options.

Freel is hitting well, has a good OBP & plays a nice corner outfield. Play him in RF and hit him leadoff. Play Bruce in CF. Start looking for a better option than Freel long term.

Chip R
05-27-2008, 02:32 PM
Walt's MO has been to trade to get talent rather than go through the FA market. Unless he's willing to trade Bruce, Vasquez or Cueto, he's not going to get a lot of talent back and I'm guessing those 3 are as untouchable and can be. If Walt is going to make a trade for talent, I would guess Dunn is his most valuable trading chip.

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 02:53 PM
Walt's MO has been to trade to get talent rather than go through the FA market. Unless he's willing to trade Bruce, Vasquez or Cueto, he's not going to get a lot of talent back and I'm guessing those 3 are as untouchable and can be. If Walt is going to make a trade for talent, I would guess Dunn is his most valuable trading chip.

Aren't you forgetting that he has Bako, Patterson, Mercker and Hairston to trade also? ;)

Chip R
05-27-2008, 02:55 PM
Aren't you forgetting that he has Bako, Patterson, Mercker and Hairston to trade also? ;)


:doh:

reds44
05-27-2008, 04:46 PM
The middle of the order should be Bruce/Phillips/Dunn/Votto in some order. It's pretty much a no brainer, IMO.

flyer85
05-27-2008, 04:47 PM
The middle of the order should be Bruce/Phillips/Dunn/Votto in some order. It's pretty much a no brainer, IMO.against RHP Phillips should bat higher than 5th, he has awful splits.

Raisor
05-27-2008, 04:49 PM
The middle of the order should be Bruce/Phillips/Dunn/Votto in some order. It's pretty much a no brainer, IMO.

Phillips
Bruce
Dunn
Eddie
Votto
Junior
Hariston
Catcher

With the team built the way it is now, Phillips really should be leading off.

A top five of Phillips/Bruce/Dunn/Eddie/Votto would step on pitchers necks early.

reds44
05-27-2008, 04:50 PM
Phillips
Bruce
Dunn
Eddie
Votto
Junior
Hariston
Catcher

With the team built the way it is now, Phillips really should be leading off.

A top five of Phillips/Bruce/Dunn/Eddie/Votto would step on pitchers necks early.
I don't mind Edwin batting in the middle of the order when he is going well, but when he is going like he is right now he is just an outs machine who doesn't belong batting 4th.

I can buy Phillips batting leadoff though, at least when Hairston stops hitting (which he will).

Raisor
05-27-2008, 04:52 PM
I can buy Phillips batting leadoff though, at least when Hairston stops hitting (which he will).


He already has, really. His OBP is down to the 330 range.

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 05:49 PM
Phillips
Bruce
Dunn
Eddie
Votto
Junior
Hariston
Catcher

With the team built the way it is now, Phillips really should be leading off.

A top five of Phillips/Bruce/Dunn/Eddie/Votto would step on pitchers necks early.

I like that lineup. gettrrrrrr dunnn

Will M
05-27-2008, 06:30 PM
against RHP Phillips should bat higher than 5th, he has awful splits.

last time i looked Phillips had an OPS of 1.3 vs lhp. yes 1.3 .
vs rhp it was less than .7 ( in 2006/2007 it was ~.750)

so hit him say 3rd vs lhp and 7th vs rhp.

buckeyenut
05-27-2008, 07:00 PM
I'd like to run something like this, if one of these CFs can get on base .370 clip like they are showing potential for.

Stubbs/Cumberland CF
Encarnacion 3B
Bruce RF
Dunn LF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Ross/other catcher C
Janish SS

or

Stubbs/Cumberland CF
Keppinger SS
Bruce RF
Dunn LF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Encarnacion 3B
Ross/other catcher C

AmarilloRed
05-27-2008, 07:08 PM
I'd like to run something like this, if one of these CFs can get on base .370 clip like they are showing potential for.

Stubbs/Cumberland CF
Encarnacion 3B
Bruce RF
Dunn LF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Ross/other catcher C
Janish SS

or

Stubbs/Cumberland CF
Keppinger SS
Bruce RF
Dunn LF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Encarnacion 3B
Ross/other catcher C

It might take several years for either Stubbs or Cumberland to play in Cincinnati

GAC
05-27-2008, 08:47 PM
Dusty would never group them together in the lineup. No way! ;)

SMcGavin
05-27-2008, 09:00 PM
Sign Dunn, keep Bruce in CF until his actual play merits a move, shift EE or Frazier to RF and you can keep everybody.

I think Junior's horrific lack of range in RF has really exacerbated the CF problem. Put a good RF in place and an average-plus guy like Bruce makes the OF defense much less of a problem, especially given those bats.

It would also let you carry Janish as your SS without having two black holes in the lineup. Let's be realistic; there aren't good-OBP plus defending CF available. Conceptually it's a great idea, but they just aren't out there to be had. Utilizing Bruce in CF and finding a better RF solution seems like the best approach to me.

I know we lack a true leadoff hitter -- something which is bound to make Dusty bat Janish up at the top, but I'd love to see his hand forced by taking away those god-awful options.

I like most of this. Dunn-Bruce-Votto-Encarnacion-Phillips-Frazier is like a pretty good hitting group. The one thing I'm not sure about is Janish at SS. I'm waiting for some results for this year to see if his defense is actually top-five in the league like people have suggested. It really needs to be elite (not just pretty good) to justify starting what's likely to be in the ballpark of a .650 OPS.