PDA

View Full Version : Will Bruce Play Against Southpaws?



Far East
05-28-2008, 09:33 AM
His AAA record against lefty pitching is excellent, and tonight the Pirates will start Gorzelanny. In one or two games here's what Reds hitters have done against Gorzelanny:

Bako 2 for 3 (including a triple)
Hairston 1 for 3 (includina a HR)
Ross 2 for 3
Freel 2 for 6
Griffey 2 for 7
Encarnacion 2 for 9
Phillips 1 for 8
Dunn 0 for 2
Valentin 0 for 2

To get Bruce and the maxinum number of RHH to surround him in the lineup against Gorzelanny:

1B-VALENTIN
2B-PHILLIPS
SS-JANISH
3B-ENCARNACION
OF-FREEL
OF-HAIRSTON
OF-BRUCE
C-ROSS

That leaves the bench with only LHH, but a lot of power potential in Votto, Dunn, and Griffey.

It also gets virtually 3 centerfielders into the outfield.

Matt700wlw
05-28-2008, 09:42 AM
He should play against everyone.

mbgrayson
05-28-2008, 09:54 AM
Jay Bruce vs. lefties in Louisville in 2008:
.389/.386/.685 for an OPS of 1.071 in 55 plate appearances.

Corey Patterson vs. lefties in 2008:
.160/.192/.160 for an OPS of .352 in 26 plate appearances.

Ryan Freel vs. lefties in 2008:
.362/.413/.466 for an OPS of .879 in 62 plate appearances.

Maybe Ken Griffey Jr. should get some off days vs. lefties:
.179/.281/.286 for an OPS of .567 in 63 plate appearances.

pahster
05-28-2008, 09:59 AM
Valentin should never play against LHP; they eat him alive.

Career - .220/.296/.296/.592

Pitcher-like.

Degenerate39
05-28-2008, 10:40 AM
Bruce probably hits lefties better than some of the righties on this team.

RedsManRick
05-28-2008, 10:47 AM
I wish I could find the post where I had all the current Reds platoon splits.

Basically, Adam Dunn is the Reds 2nd or 3rd best hitter versus lefties, with an .843 OPS against lefties in his career. Junior is at .852, but is clearly not what he once was.

The idea that Dunn, in particular, should be sat against a lefty in favor of Hairston (.684) or Freel (.742) is really quite laughable. Now, if Dunn is in need of a day off, better against a lefty than a righty I suppose. But make no mistake, taking Dunn out of the lineup makes for a worse lineup, regardless of the opposing pitcher.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 10:50 AM
Valentin should never play against LHP; they eat him alive.

Career - .220/.296/.296/.592

Pitcher-like.

Love these "never" posts.

The Reds have a problem. Of their five best hitters, four are lefty (only Phillips is righty.) Of their typical eight starters, five are lefties. Bruce, Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Bako.

So, the opposition likes to pitch lefties against the Reds. They now will face lefty starters in their next three games.

Starting five lefty hitters against the lefty starters can be debated. My answer is absolutely no way.

Who should sit against lefty starters?

Bako for sure.

Griffey, who hasn't hit lefties well this year and could use the rest.

Those should be the main sitters.

Occasionally Votto, Dunn and Bruce should sit one out againt lefties. But not usually.

But the more obvious point is that the Reds are in serious need of another major right bat. An outfielder, a catcher, or a third basman would seem most logical.

pahster
05-28-2008, 11:00 AM
Love these "never" posts.

The Reds have a problem. Of their five best hitters, four are lefty (only Phillips is righty.) Of their typical eight starters, five are lefties. Bruce, Dunn, Griffey, Votto, Bako.

So, the opposition likes to pitch lefties against the Reds. They now will face lefty starters in their next three games.

Starting five lefty hitters against the lefty starters can be debated. My answer is absolutely no way.

Who should sit against lefty starters?

Bako for sure.

Griffey, who hasn't hit lefties well this year and could use the rest.

Those should be the main sitters.

Occasionally Votto, Dunn and Bruce should sit one out againt lefties. But not usually.


Alright, fine. So long as no one is injured or needs (and I stress "needs") a day off, Valentin should never play against lefties. Better? The man hits like a pitcher against LHP. Ross can catch against lefties (career .240/.315/.488/.804 against LHP) and Votto's young enough that he doesn't need all that many days off and once Keppinger returns from the DL he can play 1B on Votto's days off.

So knowing that Ross can catch and Votto needs few days off, why would you put Valentin in the lineup against a left handed starter, especially once Keppinger is healthy again?

bucksfan2
05-28-2008, 11:10 AM
I wish I could find the post where I had all the current Reds platoon splits.

Basically, Adam Dunn is the Reds 2nd or 3rd best hitter versus lefties, with an .843 OPS against lefties in his career. Junior is at .852, but is clearly not what he once was.

The idea that Dunn, in particular, should be sat against a lefty in favor of Hairston (.684) or Freel (.742) is really quite laughable. Now, if Dunn is in need of a day off, better against a lefty than a righty I suppose. But make no mistake, taking Dunn out of the lineup makes for a worse lineup, regardless of the opposing pitcher.

I think this is one of the most overused statistic in baseball. Look I know there are some lefty pitchers that dominate left handed hitters. With the exception of a Randy Johnson in his prime there are very few LHP that I would sit a regular for. IMO when you start to over analyze the LHP RHP matchups you end up out thinking yourself and end up benching the better hitter.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 11:12 AM
Alright, fine. So long as no one is injured or needs (and I stress "needs") a day off, Valentin should never play against lefties. Better? The man hits like a pitcher against LHP. Ross can catch against lefties (career .240/.315/.488/.804 against LHP) and Votto's young enough that he doesn't need all that many days off and once Keppinger returns from the DL he can play 1B on Votto's days off.

So knowing that Ross can catch and Votto needs few days off, why would you put Valentin in the lineup against a left handed starter, especially once Keppinger is healthy again?

I would only use Valentin very occasionally to spell Votto. I happen to think he is a little better than advertised right handed. Hasn't really hit that much righty and with more ABs would be better. But he's obviously best suited as a lefty hitter off the bench.

But overall the team needs righty hitting.

bucksfan2
05-28-2008, 11:15 AM
I would only use Valentin very occasionally to spell Votto. I happen to think he is a little better than advertised right handed. Hasn't really hit that much righty and with more ABs would be better. But he's obviously best suited as a lefty hitter off the bench.

But overall the team needs righty hitting.

I think Valentin will spell Votto until Keppy comes back. I think when Keppy comes back they will move him all over the field to keep his bat in the lineup.

corkedbat
05-28-2008, 11:22 AM
Dusty told Marty that he was up here to play and that he would do so. He said that he might rest him very occasionally against especially tough lefties.

SteelSD
05-28-2008, 11:28 AM
But overall the team needs righty hitting.

The Reds are fifth in the NL versus LH Pitching with a team OPS of .818 (.280 BA/.367 OBP/.451 SLG). Versus RHP, the team's OPS is nearly 100 points lower (.719- NL Rank: 8th) with a line of .250 BA/.316 OBP/.402 SLG.

To put that in perspective, if the team hit righties as well as they hit southpaws, they'd have the best offense in the National League. The idea that they can't hit LHP is a myth.

Chip R
05-28-2008, 11:43 AM
I don't think even Dusty's crazy enough to bench Bruce for Patterson against a lefty.

blumj
05-28-2008, 11:45 AM
Around this time last season, maybe a bit later, some Red Sox fans got in a snit about how poorly the Sox were hitting against LHPs, even though they have a pretty RHH-heavy offense. Then someone got the good idea of looking at the list of LH starters they'd faced to that point in the season, and it was almost like a list naming the best LHPs in baseball. Kazmir 3 times, Bedard twice, Pettitte twice, Sabathia, Santana, even Randy Johnson before he got hurt again, etc., plus a few legit top LH pitching prospects. Pretty funny how easily that "snit" went away. Ponit is, if you're facing the top lefties in the game all the time, you're not going to hit LHPs very well. If you're facing a lot of mediocre lefties, you probably will.

IslandRed
05-28-2008, 11:48 AM
The Reds are fifth in the NL versus LH Pitching with a team OPS of .818 (.280 BA/.367 OBP/.451 SLG). Versus RHP, the team's OPS is nearly 100 points lower (.719- NL Rank: 8th) with a line of .250 BA/.316 OBP/.402 SLG.

To put that in perspective, if the team hit righties as well as they hit southpaws, they'd have the best offense in the National League. The idea that they can't hit LHP is a myth.

It's probably an idea carried over from last year, when they were legitimately bad against lefties. But you're right, this year's splits tell a different story.

Spring~Fields
05-28-2008, 11:56 AM
Bruce probably hits lefties better than some of the righties on this team.



vs. Left
And Last seven games
Phillips .390 .438 .847 1.285
Phillips .259 .323 .519 .841

Votto .308 .400 .615 1.015
Votto .391 .440 .565 1.005

Hairston .391 .444 .565 1.009
Hairston .333 .400 .333 .733

Janish .444 .500 .444 .944
Janish .231 .286 .231 .516

Freel .362 .413 .466 .879
Freel .353 .421 .412 .833

Dunn .234 .413 .447 .860
Dunn .421 .593 1.000 1.593

Encarcion .283 .377 .396 .773
Encarcion .268 .343 .446 .789

Griffey .179 .281 .286 .567
Griffey .231 .375 .423 .798

Ross .278 .409 .278 .687
Ross .182 .400 .182 .582

Bako .200 .234 .400 .634
Bako .125 .125 .125 .250

Valentin .143 .250 .286 .536
Valentin .600 .667 .800 1.467

Patterson .160 .192 .160 .352
Patterson .000 .000 .000 .000

Bruce .389 .386 .685 1.071
May - Bruce .419 .453 .709 1.162

The team has such a mixed bag. Looks like Bruce should play against LH along with the others that have the hot hand in the last seven games, he really doesn't have a lot choice.

Kc61
05-28-2008, 12:51 PM
The Reds are fifth in the NL versus LH Pitching with a team OPS of .818 (.280 BA/.367 OBP/.451 SLG). Versus RHP, the team's OPS is nearly 100 points lower (.719- NL Rank: 8th) with a line of .250 BA/.316 OBP/.402 SLG.

To put that in perspective, if the team hit righties as well as they hit southpaws, they'd have the best offense in the National League. The idea that they can't hit LHP is a myth.


Not a myth at all.

In 2007, the Reds OPS against righties for the full year was .790. Against lefties it was .732.

This year, these numbers are reversed, but the sample is small. The Reds have had 641 total plate appearances against lefties. In 2007, they had a total of 2011 -- so there's a long way to go.

If you look at the individual Reds, there are four hitters having outstanding years against lefties with OPS over 1.000. Three are righties -- Hairston, Kepp, and of course Phillips. And Votto a lefty.

When Kepp returns, Hairston will play less. Votto did not hit lefties well at AAA last year and his stats will inevitably suffer some correction. (Dunn has done pretty well against lefties this year, .860 OPS, hard to believe that will get much better against lefties.)

Without more right handed hitting, the numbers against lefties should normalize. On the other hand, the numbers against righties are too low and this will improve. The Reds have too much left handed hitting to have a .719 OPS against righties.

If the Reds third baseman, a righty hitter, feasted on lefties it would help -- he is one of the few righty everyday bats in the lineup. But his OPS against lefties is .773, not exactly a feast. Better than .717 (his OPS against righties). Playing Ross at catcher more against lefties would also help -- I don't know why Bako plays against lefties so much.

The Reds need more righty hitting to give the lineup better balance. A right handed hitting outfielder, a good hitting righty catcher, or a major righty bat at third base are ways to accomplish this over time.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 12:55 PM
I don't think even Dusty's crazy enough to bench Bruce for Patterson against a lefty.

Not Patterson, but I could totally see Dusty subbing in Farney for Bruce.

RichRed
05-28-2008, 01:12 PM
(Dunn has done pretty well against lefties this year, .860 OPS, hard to believe that will get much better against lefties.)


Dunn has a career .843 OPS against lefties. While you may be correct that he won't get much better against lefties, he's also not likely to do much worse.

I just think the Reds need more good hitters, righty or lefty, I don't care.

PuffyPig
05-28-2008, 01:20 PM
Not Patterson, but I could totally see Dusty subbing in Farney for Bruce.


As long as Bruce is producing he'll play against everyone (odd rest vs. tough lefty notwithstahding).

Griffey will sit more occasionally vs. LF pitching to let Freel play some.

fearofpopvol1
05-28-2008, 01:42 PM
As long as Bruce is producing he'll play against everyone (odd rest vs. tough lefty notwithstahding).

Griffey will sit more occasionally vs. LF pitching to let Freel play some.

Do you know who the manager of the Reds is?

I actually think you're right. I think Dusty will play him more than not, but don't be surprised if/when it happens.

SteelSD
05-28-2008, 07:41 PM
Not a myth at all.

In 2007, the Reds OPS against righties for the full year was .790. Against lefties it was .732.

This year, these numbers are reversed, but the sample is small. The Reds have had 641 total plate appearances against lefties. In 2007, they had a total of 2011 -- so there's a long way to go.

2008 isn't 2007. Some of the players have changed and in some cases, the same players are behaving differently. No more running out Jeff Conine versus LHP. Ya' think Ryan Freel is going to put up 117 PA with a .172 OBP and a .250 SLG versus southpaws this year? Alex Gonzalez 124 PA of a .675 OPS versus LHP sure didn't help last season. Nor did Josh Hamilton's smaller sample of 81 PA with a .588 OPS. That's nearly 25% of the Reds' PA versus LHP in 2007 either not with the Reds any more or who couldn't possibly perform worse (Freel). And they're not all LH hitters.


If you look at the individual Reds, there are four hitters having outstanding years against lefties with OPS over 1.000. Three are righties -- Hairston, Kepp, and of course Phillips. And Votto a lefty.

Ok. So we have some RH bats who are hitting LH pitching. I would hope so, because if they can't that's an issue. And we have Votto. The rest:

Dunn: .860 OPS
Griffey: .578 OPS
Freel: .878 OPS
Ross: .687 OPS
Bako: .634 OPS
Encarnacion: .773

Ok, so of the likely current starters, we have...

3 RH hitters hitting LHP to the tune of a 1.000+ OPS
1 RH hitter at .878
1 RH hitter (Encarnacion) at .773
1 LH hitter over 1.000
1 LH hitter at .860
1 LH hitter doing very poorly (Griffey)
1 LH hitter (Bruce) who should be able to hit LHP
A bunch of catchers who can't hit
And Corey Patterson who's now, thankfully, in AAA where he belongs

I'm not sure exactly where the Reds have massive room for improvement versus LHP. Griffey? Yeah. Sure. Otherwise? Catcher. Good luck on that, Mr. Jocketty. The real issues:

Versus RHP:

Phillips: .698 OPS
Encarnacion: .717 OPS
Keppinger: .665 OPS
Hairson: .750 OPS
Freel: .640 OPS

When your leading RH hitter versus same-side pitching has a .750 OPS, that's a huge huge issue offensively, which trumps pretty much anything we're seeing from the LH hitting contingent.

The issue is NOT the Reds' LH hitters. It's that the RH hitters aren't hitting RH pitchers. And yeah, Phillips and Keppinger have been major culprits this season. Any "imbalance" with the Reds' lineup begins with the righties. In fact, that's where it's isolated.[/QUOTE]

Kc61
05-28-2008, 08:45 PM
Two of the starting left handed hitters with a lot of ABs against righties haven't hit against them. One, Patterson, with a .620 OPS v. righties over 120 at bats is now gone. Don't know that anybody trumps that number. Griffey started tonight at .780 OPS against righties, which is not a great number for your number three place left handed hitter.

But I agree that the Reds righties haven't hit righties well. That's only another reason why the righty hitters on this team need to be upgraded.

There needs to be better lefty/righty balance in this offense. One real good right handed hitter in the middle of the lineup would be a very positive step.