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View Full Version : Belisle to AAA; Mercker back



membengal
05-29-2008, 05:07 PM
So does that mean Fogg on Saturday?

Info per McAlister on 1530 Homer.

ETA: Title should have said Mercker "back". As in from DL. Sorry about that.

Blitz Dorsey
05-29-2008, 05:10 PM
Homer!

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 05:10 PM
Walt not messing around - Fogg starts Saturday, and I'm guessing like before, he's just a stop gap

sonny
05-29-2008, 05:10 PM
Wow, tons of movage in the last couple days. Hope Belisle can get his head together down there.

I would like to see Affeldt get a spot start, even though he stunk ot up the last couple outings.

*BaseClogger*
05-29-2008, 05:11 PM
Fogg is no better than Belisle with worse upside, yet he gets to stick around and Belisle goes to AAA? DFA Fogg, put Belisle in the bullpen, and call up Maloney for the rotation...

membengal
05-29-2008, 05:12 PM
Fogg is no better than Belisle with worse upside, yet he gets to stick around and Belisle goes to AAA? DFA Fogg, put Belisle in the bullpen, and call up Maloney for the rotation...

That has been my hope. Ah well. Back into the Fogg, as it were.

Raisor
05-29-2008, 05:12 PM
Merker for the rotation!!!

He's the only Red with a no-hitter! (1 1/3 of them in fact)

Blitz Dorsey
05-29-2008, 05:14 PM
Homer Bailey!

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:15 PM
Homer pitched on Tuesday, sure seems to me that Fogg starts on Saturday ... a game I will be attending(Friday as well).

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:17 PM
from Fay


From the Reds:
Today the Reds optioned to Class AAA Louisville RHP Matt Belisle and reinstated from the 15-day disabled list LHP Kent Mercker.

RHP Josh Fogg will start Saturday’s game against the Braves.

membengal
05-29-2008, 05:17 PM
Maloney pitched today already for L'ville. Pitched well again too. Just sayin'...

pahster
05-29-2008, 05:18 PM
I don't really see the point in sending down Belisle so Fogg can start.

HotCorner
05-29-2008, 05:22 PM
Three moves in three days. What will tomorrow bring? :clap:

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 05:22 PM
I don't really see the point in sending down Belisle so Fogg can start.

Evidentally Walt has seen enough of Belisle....frankly, I have to, but I imagine Fogg won't have a very long leash either...

Cyclone792
05-29-2008, 05:25 PM
RHP Josh Fogg will start Saturday’s game against the Braves.

Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.

pahster
05-29-2008, 05:25 PM
Evidentally Walt has seen enough of Belisle....frankly, I have to, but I imagine Fogg won't have a very long leash either...

I'm sure Jocketty already knows what he has in Fogg (ie a very bad starter who can't go deep into games). Maybe he's trying to shine him up, I dunno. Maybe Belisle is going down to work on something specific or to be moved into the bullpen. If he's staying in the rotation, though, it seems like a superfluous move. At least Belisle is capable of pitching past the fifth inning.

Sometimes. :p:

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:25 PM
replacing the 7+ ERA with 9 ERA doesn't exactly promote confidence.

NC Reds
05-29-2008, 05:26 PM
Perhaps Fogg gets his final shot, and then the auditions begin amongst Maloney, Homer and Thompson.

Belisle has had ample opportunity to nail down that rotation spot. He just hasn't.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:26 PM
Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.I need to get home earlier than planned on Saturday ... Josh could be of great assistance in that matter.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:28 PM
it would be easy to slot anyone of the three candidates into the rotation and while giving others an extra day of rest.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2008, 05:29 PM
Unless Fogg totally flops, I'd give him a handful of starts to see if he can establish some value. Teams will be looking for starters, and Fogg had a nice run last year in Colorado during the pennant chase. GMs will remember that.

icehole3
05-29-2008, 05:29 PM
ugh... Im getting sick thinking about a Fogg start

http://img228.imageshack.us/img228/9562/vomitnewasa2.gif

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 05:30 PM
I'm sure Jocketty already knows what he has in Fogg (ie a very bad starter who can't go deep into games). Maybe he's trying to shine him up, I dunno. Maybe Belisle is going down to work on something specific or to be moved into the bullpen. If he's staying in the rotation, though, it seems like a superfluous move. At least Belisle is capable of pitching past the fifth inning.

Sometimes. :p:

Maybe the Rockies are really interested, but they want to see if can actually get someone out :D

I'm not excited about him taking the mound, either.

TRF
05-29-2008, 05:31 PM
this move is treading water only. MB has been bad this year, but Fogg was worse. I guess I don't see the point.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:32 PM
Unless Fogg totally flops, I'd give him a handful of starts to see if he can establish some value. Fogg is what he is and I doubt a few good outings will do anything to change his value. Only a team truly desperate would be willing to trade for Fogg.

It's hard to see how him trying to wade through the lefties Johnson/Jones/Tex/McCann in the middle of the Braves order is going to turn out well.

flyer85
05-29-2008, 05:34 PM
this move is treading water only. MB has been bad this year, but Fogg was worse. I guess I don't see the point.It depends on what they do with Belisle in AAA. My hope is that he goes to the bullpen. Hopefully Josh will be one and done.

lollipopcurve
05-29-2008, 05:37 PM
Fogg is what he is and I doubt a few good outings will do anything to change his value. Only a team truly desperate would be willing to trade for Fogg.

A team looking to win that has a hole in its rotation... they tend to be around. If Fogg is looking like a 6 inning, 3 run guy, there will be a market for him. Wouldn't bring a lot back, but he'd bring something, I think.

TRF
05-29-2008, 05:43 PM
A team looking to win that has a hole in its rotation... they tend to be around. If Fogg is looking like a 6 inning, 3 run guy, there will be a market for him. Wouldn't bring a lot back, but he'd bring something, I think.
If he was a 6 inning three run guy he'd have gotten a 3 year 15 mil contract.

KittyDuran
05-29-2008, 05:45 PM
Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.What???!!! and miss getting a beach towel! ;)

OnBaseMachine
05-29-2008, 05:45 PM
Mercker is finished and Fogg is terrible. Belisle has been far from good but Josh Fogg is a waste of time.

Fogg should be DFA'd with Belisle taking over his role.

RedsManRick
05-29-2008, 05:50 PM
Tomato, tomahto. I guess we know now why Fogg didn't pitch last night. I just hope they don't bring up Homer.

Belisle and Todd Coffey are like twins -- decent stuff, good control, just leave way too much good pitches over the heart of the plate. Looks like they're going to follow the same career path of perennial call ups. Once they hit late 20's, they'll gain FA and bounce around from one organization to the next until they can parlay a decent year on a bad team in to a multi-year contract.

Kc61
05-29-2008, 05:51 PM
In the last few days, Jocketty has addressed a number of problems we've all discussed.

1. Got Jay Bruce up.
2. Changed the bench to eliminate the double lefty first baseman thing with Hatte.
3. Sent down Patterson.
4. Tried to improve the righty hitting off the bench with A. Phillips.
5. Sent out Belisle.
6. Added a useful reliever, Mercker, instead of Fogg as sixth starter/long man who almost never pitched.

Quite a nice week for the roster.

Next issues are --

1. Fogg is likely a stopgap for Maloney, Bailey or possibly Thompson.
2. Figuring out the roster after Keppinger returns in a couple of weeks.
3. Possible upgrades to the bullpen.
4. Griffey after 600.
5. Dunn contract status.

RedsManRick
05-29-2008, 05:52 PM
I wonder if they're considering trying Belisle in the pen in AAA?

Cyclone792
05-29-2008, 05:54 PM
What???!!! and miss getting a beach towel! ;)

Ah, looks like I basically bought an $11.50 beach towel on Saturday then. Good to know that money spent won't be a total waste, I guess ... :help:

Patrick Bateman
05-29-2008, 05:56 PM
Ah, looks like I basically bought an $11.50 beach towel on Saturday then. Good to know that money spent won't be a total waste, I guess ... :help:

It's Reds baseball.... on a Saturday.... Jay Bruce will be there. Quit complaining ;)

Chip R
05-29-2008, 05:57 PM
Well, I was thinking about going to the game on Sat. :rolleyes:

knuckler
05-29-2008, 05:58 PM
C Trent says Belisle will be working as a reliever in AAA. Good move IMHO.

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 05:59 PM
In the last few days, Jocketty has addressed a number of problems we've all discussed.

1. Got Jay Bruce up.
2. Changed the bench to eliminate the double lefty first baseman thing with Hatte.
3. Sent down Patterson.
4. Tried to improve the righty hitting off the bench with A. Phillips.
5. Sent out Belisle.
6. Added a useful reliever, Mercker, instead of Fogg as sixth starter/long man who almost never pitched.

Quite a nice week for the roster.

Next issues are --

1. Fogg is likely a stopgap for Maloney, Bailey or possibly Thompson.
2. Figuring out the roster after Keppinger returns in a couple of weeks.
3. Possible upgrades to the bullpen.
4. Griffey after 600.
5. Dunn contract status.


He's tweaked the roster without looking outside the organization in a way that, on paper, makes the team better...I don't want to rip Krivksy, but he waited around way too long for my liking, when it was obvious something needed to be changed.

chicoruiz
05-29-2008, 05:59 PM
Could Fogg be a stopgap for another attempt to stretch Affeldt out to a starter's role? Because I don't think that's a terrible idea...

corkedbat
05-29-2008, 06:00 PM
4-man rotation? :eek:

Cyclone792
05-29-2008, 06:01 PM
It's Reds baseball.... on a Saturday.... Jay Bruce will be there. Quit complaining ;)

On a Dusty Baker managed team, Bruce is liable to get a day off on Saturday. Either that or maybe I'd get to see Ryan Freel try to play third base again with Hairston next to him at shortstop to fill out the left side of the infield. That's always interesting to see, because you never quite know what you'll get.

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 06:03 PM
On a Dusty Baker managed team, Bruce is liable to get a day off on Saturday. Either that or maybe I'd get to see Ryan Freel try to play third base again with Hairston next to him at shortstop to fill out the left side of the infield. That's always interesting to see, because you never quite know what you'll get.

Dusty Baker's like a box of chocolates...:p:

Patrick Bateman
05-29-2008, 06:11 PM
On a Dusty Baker managed team, Bruce is liable to get a day off on Saturday. Either that or maybe I'd get to see Ryan Freel try to play third base again with Hairston next to him at shortstop to fill out the left side of the infield. That's always interesting to see, because you never quite know what you'll get.

Well aren't you quite the Debbie Downer.

I think you've gotten spoiled living close enough to go to games. Annually, we usually go to 8-10 games, and usually the Reds manage to win around 1-3 of them.

Seriously, it's baseball on a Saturday. I'm sure you can find some way to enjoy yourself :)

CrackerJack
05-29-2008, 06:13 PM
Showcase Fogg for Korea.

Cyclone792
05-29-2008, 06:33 PM
Well aren't you quite the Debbie Downer.

I think you've gotten spoiled living close enough to go to games. Annually, we usually go to 8-10 games, and usually the Reds manage to win around 1-3 of them.

Seriously, it's baseball on a Saturday. I'm sure you can find some way to enjoy yourself :)

Oh I'll enjoy myself, even if it's from laughter at Fogg's expense. ;) I have no doubt that when Fogg gets lit up that he'll be booed off the field, deservedly so too. And yes, baseball is still baseball so that's always a good thing.

It's just that between three years of Eric Milton plus a few other notable games I've attended (Dempter vs. Phillies, Wilson vs. Dodgers), watching bad pitchers pitch for the Reds gets a tad old after awhile.

Nugget
05-29-2008, 06:36 PM
At least you get down to watch the REDS - whether they win or lose they are still our REDS. Better to watch them than the Evil Empire.

gm
05-29-2008, 06:37 PM
C Trent says Belisle will be working as a reliever in AAA. Good move IMHO.

Good luck with the back, Matt. Last time Belisle tried pitching on consecutive days his back was barking. These things tend to not improve with experience

DiamondRat
05-29-2008, 06:46 PM
Chipper has got to be licking his chops! :)

Screwball
05-29-2008, 06:51 PM
Chipper has got to be licking his chops! :)

Not to mention Teixeira, Francoeur, McCann, Kotsay, Escobar...

Cyclone792
05-29-2008, 07:12 PM
I will say that I have a feeling we may see Matt Maloney up next week, especially if Fogg gets lit up on Saturday ... which is as close to a given as you'll have. Fogg's spot is due up in the rotation next Thursday in Philadelphia. The Phillies already lit Fogg up earlier this season - I was in attendance to watch the brutal beating - and they'll do it again next week if he pitches.

June 5th could see Matt Maloney trying to prove to the Phillies in their own backyard that they made a mistake in dealing him. That would be a rough offense in a rough ballpark to make your major league debut in, but somebody's going to have to pitch.

Matt700wlw
05-29-2008, 07:14 PM
Someone, who's last name sounds like Hose Crayons told me he doesn't see Fogg in the rotation very long.

I would agree. Temporary stop gap

REDREAD
05-29-2008, 07:29 PM
Fogg is no better than Belisle with worse upside, yet he gets to stick around and Belisle goes to AAA? DFA Fogg, put Belisle in the bullpen, and call up Maloney for the rotation...


Fogg and Belisle are pretty much equivalent. Belisle had plenty of chances and blew it. Just like Patterson, he earned a trip to AAA. I don't understand the tears for Belisle (who IIRC is only a year or two younger than Patterson.. not exactly "young"), while Patterson gets judged so harshly.

Why is Fogg safe? Because he can't be sent down. Life isn't fair, but every club in baseball would make the same decision. The Reds don't have the depth to release any pitching.

Mercker is more valuable than Belisle, IMO. As is Bray. This was a good move.

REDREAD
05-29-2008, 07:33 PM
replacing the 7+ ERA with 9 ERA doesn't exactly promote confidence.

The idea was to make room for Mercker. Belisle could be sent down, Fogg couldn't.

Belisle got plenty of chances, and he's pretty much proved he has no upside at all. He's pretty much in the Maj bucket now..

Fogg willl probably be kept until they find a replacement for the 5th slot. Apparently they don't think Homer is ready yet.

I doubt that either Belisle or Fogg is on the team next year. I hope not.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 07:34 PM
Fogg is what he is and I doubt a few good outings will do anything to change his value. Only a team truly desperate would be willing to trade for Fogg.

It's hard to see how him trying to wade through the lefties Johnson/Jones/Tex/McCann in the middle of the Braves order is going to turn out well.

The Rockies have shown repeated interest in Fogg. Doubt it will net anything of real value, but hey.

Highlifeman21
05-29-2008, 08:36 PM
Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.

Put it on StubHub.

I'm sure that game will sell out, now that Fogg is the announced starter... ;)

jojo
05-29-2008, 08:39 PM
I'm not sure why people are in a hurry to see Maloney's debut.

Highlifeman21
05-29-2008, 08:40 PM
In the last few days, Jocketty has addressed a number of problems we've all discussed.

1. Got Jay Bruce up.
2. Changed the bench to eliminate the double lefty first baseman thing with Hatte.
3. Sent down Patterson.
4. Tried to improve the righty hitting off the bench with A. Phillips.
5. Sent out Belisle.
6. Added a useful reliever, Mercker, instead of Fogg as sixth starter/long man who almost never pitched.

Quite a nice week for the roster.

Next issues are --

1. Fogg is likely a stopgap for Maloney, Bailey or possibly Thompson.
2. Figuring out the roster after Keppinger returns in a couple of weeks.
3. Possible upgrades to the bullpen.
4. Griffey after 600.
5. Dunn contract status.

Aside from bringing up Bruce, all the other moves were just shuffling and reshuffling the deck chairs on the SS Redlegs.

Hopefully June brings some actual impact moves to the Reds....

HokieRed
05-29-2008, 08:57 PM
I like the move. They need another reliever rather than having a guy like Fogg who's basically just sitting and taking up a roster spot. Belisle needs to move to the bullpen to save any kind of career; this gives him a chance to do it. He obviously does not figure in any rotation plans for the Reds beyond this August.

Cedric
05-29-2008, 09:58 PM
I'm not sure why people are in a hurry to see Maloney's debut.

Why wouldn't we be? Take a look at Fogg/Belisle and tell me how Maloney doesn't make you do jumping jacks? Maloney has the peripherals and he's got a track record of getting people out at every level of his career. He's a much better option than Belisle/Fogg.

What's not to like about a 9.3 K rate and 1.19 career whip? He's still over 8 k/9 in AAA. He's a Cadillac compared to those two.

Heath
05-29-2008, 10:10 PM
Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.

On top of that, he starts on the FOX game of the week.

I had tickets for Saturday. Had is the operative word.

Always Red
05-29-2008, 10:13 PM
Why wouldn't we be? Take a look at Fogg/Belisle and tell me how Maloney doesn't make you do jumping jacks? Maloney has the peripherals and he's got a track record of getting people out at every level of his career. He's a much better option than Belisle/Fogg.

What's not to like about a 9.3 K rate and 1.19 career whip? He's still over 8 k/9 in AAA. He's a Cadillac compared to those two.

Matt Belisle, minor leagues= 7 K rate and WHIP of 1.26
Josh Fogg, minor leagues= 7.18 rate and 1.28 WHIP.

Not really that much difference.

He might be a better option than Belisle/Fogg, but you gotta compare apples to apples. Maloney has never pitched in MLB before, and it's a long way between AAA and the NL.

I like him so far, and I'd love to see how he can pitch to big league hitters, but I don't start trading away Arroyo or Bailey until I see him pitch in the bigs. Thompson too, for that matter.

jojo
05-29-2008, 10:20 PM
Why wouldn't we be? Take a look at Fogg/Belisle and tell me how Maloney doesn't make you do jumping jacks? Maloney has the peripherals and he's got a track record of getting people out at every level of his career. He's a much better option than Belisle/Fogg.

What's not to like about a 9.3 K rate and 1.19 career whip? He's still over 8 k/9 in AAA. He's a Cadillac compared to those two.

He's most likely staring at a glass ceiling.

Rojo
05-29-2008, 10:23 PM
Matt Belisle, minor leagues= 7 K rate and WHIP of 1.26
Josh Fogg, minor leagues= 7.18 rate and 1.28 WHIP.

Not really that much difference.

Actually, it is.

fearofpopvol1
05-29-2008, 10:26 PM
I don't think Maloney is going to be an enormous upgrade over Belisle/Fogg (especially since he has a weak fastball), but I do think his peripherals suggest he'll be an upgrade.

Always Red
05-29-2008, 10:30 PM
Actually, it is.

yes, they both gave up 0.07 more walks and hits per inning than Maloney in AAA. Is that statistically significant?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Matt Maloney to succeed for the Reds

Maloney is a soft-tosser. Do you really believe, for a moment that he's going to K more than 9 batters an inning on the MLB level?

Because I do not. I don't think he's going to miss many bats on the MLB level, but he is probably more of a pitcher than Belisle, whom I see as more of a thrower.

Cedric
05-29-2008, 11:10 PM
yes, they both gave up 0.07 more walks and hits per inning than Maloney in AAA. Is that statistically significant?

Don't get me wrong, I'd love for Matt Maloney to succeed for the Reds

Maloney is a soft-tosser. Do you really believe, for a moment that he's going to K more than 9 batters an inning on the MLB level?

Because I do not. I don't think he's going to miss many bats on the MLB level, but he is probably more of a pitcher than Belisle, whom I see as more of a thrower.

Maloney strikes out 2 more guys per 9 innings.

Rojo
05-29-2008, 11:25 PM
Maloney strikes out 2 more guys per 9 innings.

Which is big. Don't get me wrong, I have my doubts about Maloney, but his minor league numbers are tight.

Cedric
05-29-2008, 11:34 PM
Which is big. Don't get me wrong, I have my doubts about Maloney, but his minor league numbers are tight.

Until I see the man pitch I have doubts, same as any other player. The problem that I see is that many are willing to consider him a AAAA type pitcher because of his supposed lack of velocity. Who the hell cares? It's not like he is sitting at 85 and is a trick pitcher. He might have great movement and a great feel for the game. Can't teach things like that. Does anyone know if he has a motion that makes the baseball hard to see? Does anyone have any definitive reason for saying he lacks "stuff"? Until then I'm going to look at the numbers on the back of his card and see no reason he won't be better than Fogg/Belisle. Doesn't mean it's a sure thing though.

RedlegJake
05-30-2008, 12:23 AM
Until I see the man pitch I have doubts, same as any other player. The problem that I see is that many are willing to consider him a AAAA type pitcher because of his supposed lack of velocity. Who the hell cares? It's not like he is sitting at 85 and is a trick pitcher. He might have great movement and a great feel for the game. Can't teach things like that. Does anyone know if he has a motion that makes the baseball hard to see? Does anyone have any definitive reason for saying he lacks "stuff"? Until then I'm going to look at the numbers on the back of his card and see no reason he won't be better than Fogg/Belisle. Doesn't mean it's a sure thing though.

I agree. The only way you find out about Maloney is to pitch him. Frankly, I don't think there's much more for him to learn at AAA. At his age and progression its time to check him out, especially since the other option is Josh Fogg. I too have doubts whether Maloney can translate his success to the big leagues but there's only 1 way to know for sure.

fearofpopvol1
05-30-2008, 12:30 AM
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=68756

Rojo
05-30-2008, 03:36 AM
He's a lefty curveballer which might mean that he's the next Bruce Chen. However, his numbers demand a call up to see.

mth123
05-30-2008, 06:42 AM
This was simply a stop gap move too accomplish a few things:

1. They needed a roster spot to activate Mercker.
2. They'd seen enough of Belisle
3. Fogg can't be dealt until June 15th, why DFA him now when that is only a couple weeks away?

Get Fogg three starts so that he is firmly established in a starter's routine and peddle him for whatever in mid June, The 5th starter is likely to be a revolving door of ineffectiveness whether its Fogg, Belisle, Maloney, Homer, Thompson or anyone else. Most teams have the same problem in the 5th spot in the rotation. I see no reason to go any other direction than to bide some time while Fogg's clock ticks away. I really don't see Fogg as such a downgrade from the alternatives that makes it worth a DFA 2 weeks prior to being able to deal him. Hopefully he'll pitch a decent game or two and position the team for a deal. If not, he can still be DFA later. In the meantime, the kids get a few more starts in AAA which certainly won't hurt them. Bailey and Thonpson probably should not be considered realistic alternatives for the major league team until 2009 anyway IMO. I'd say, barring an acquisition, Maloney is next in line.

bucksfan2
05-30-2008, 09:34 AM
Until I see the man pitch I have doubts, same as any other player. The problem that I see is that many are willing to consider him a AAAA type pitcher because of his supposed lack of velocity. Who the hell cares? It's not like he is sitting at 85 and is a trick pitcher. He might have great movement and a great feel for the game. Can't teach things like that. Does anyone know if he has a motion that makes the baseball hard to see? Does anyone have any definitive reason for saying he lacks "stuff"? Until then I'm going to look at the numbers on the back of his card and see no reason he won't be better than Fogg/Belisle. Doesn't mean it's a sure thing though.

Too often people look at the radar gun to judge whether a pitcher will be successful or not. Velocity is only one factor in how a pitcher pitches. Changing of speeds, location, and movement are the most important factors. A 95 MPH fastball that runs right over the middle is easier to hit than a 88 MPH fastball that slides right over the outside corner. Greg Maddux may have been the best pitcher of the past 20 years yet he didn't have overpowering speed. Tom Glavine has had a very successful career and he didn't blow anyone away.

lollipopcurve
05-30-2008, 09:41 AM
The 5th starter is likely to be a revolving door of ineffectiveness whether its Fogg, Belisle, Maloney, Homer, Thompson or anyone else. Most teams have the same problem in the 5th spot in the rotation. I see no reason to go any other direction than to bide some time while Fogg's clock ticks away. I really don't see Fogg as such a downgrade from the alternatives that makes it worth a DFA 2 weeks prior to being able to deal him. Hopefully he'll pitch a decent game or two and position the team for a deal. If not, he can still be DFA later. In the meantime, the kids get a few more starts in AAA which certainly won't hurt them. Bailey and Thonpson probably should not be considered realistic alternatives for the major league team until 2009 anyway IMO. I'd say, barring an acquisition, Maloney is next in line.

Well said.

Danny Serafini
05-30-2008, 10:25 AM
Maloney has all of 78 innings above AA. Can we let him develop a bit before rushing him up? He doesn't need to be in Cincinnati right now.

NJReds
05-30-2008, 10:59 AM
I think the bullpen is the place for Belisle. He reminds me of what the Mets went through with Heilman, and I think he can have the same success that Heilman had after moving to the bullpen.

TRF
05-30-2008, 12:42 PM
Matt Belisle may not be the long term answer as a SP for the Reds, but he is a buffer for those who are. Josh Fogg is certainly NOT that buffer. Sending him down to the AAA bullpen diminishes his value to the Reds as protection for the young SP's at Louisville and as a potential trading chip.

I think this is a bad move. Maybe not dumb, but short-sighted as ther is no value to it.

Kc61
05-30-2008, 01:04 PM
Matt Belisle may not be the long term answer as a SP for the Reds, but he is a buffer for those who are. Josh Fogg is certainly NOT that buffer. Sending him down to the AAA bullpen diminishes his value to the Reds as protection for the young SP's at Louisville and as a potential trading chip.

I think this is a bad move. Maybe not dumb, but short-sighted as ther is no value to it.


Why is Belisle better than Fogg? Fogg had a 4.94 ERA last year as a starter. Belisle had a 5.32. Why is Belisle so much better?

TRF
05-30-2008, 01:12 PM
Why is Belisle better than Fogg? Fogg had a 4.94 ERA last year as a starter. Belisle had a 5.32. Why is Belisle so much better?

There is a real good thread about why during ST. I'm in a DB training class or I'd look it up.

RedsManRick
05-30-2008, 01:17 PM
Here is a quick rundown from Fangraphs on their career stats.

Fogg, age 31.5
K/9: 4.86
BB/9: 3.04
HR/9: 1.24
BABIP: .303
GB/FB: 1.18
LD: 21.0%
FIP: 4.95
ERA: 4.99

Belisle, age 28
K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 2.53
HR/9: 1.24
BABIP: .333
GB/FB: 1.43
LD: 22.0%
FIP: 4.59
ERA: 5.06

Given the small sample sizes of this year, and the variability and defense-dependent nature of ERA, Belisle clearly looks like the better pitcher given the numbers above. He's younger, strikes out more, walks fewer, and gets more grounders. The ERA difference can be largely attributed to home park (Fogg only pitched in the humidor version of Coors) and defense. Outside of his 2007 ERA, where's the argument for Fogg?

I don't fancy Belisle as a guy you give an extension to or anything, but maintain that he's among the best #5 starters in baseball, particularly given his price. Maloney might be a better option and probably deserves a shot at some point, but there's a very good chance he's no better than Belisle. I'd have no problem giving him a run at it, just keep expectations in check.

SMcGavin
05-30-2008, 01:22 PM
I'm not sure why people are in a hurry to see Maloney's debut.

Perhaps they consider a player's history of performance when evaluating him?

Being hesitant about Maloney is one thing, acting like it's a given that his performance will do a 180 once he hits the bigs (or that at age 24 he is as good as he's ever going to be) makes it hard to take you seriously.

jojo
05-30-2008, 01:47 PM
Perhaps they consider a player's history of performance when evaluating him?

Being hesitant about Maloney is one thing, acting like it's a given that his performance will do a 180 once he hits the bigs (or that at age 24 he is as good as he's ever going to be) makes it hard to take you seriously.

Maybe it would be easier to take a position seriously if you tried to understand it first or at least a counterargument would be easier to take seriously if it accurately represented the opposing position.

There is a big divide between Maloney's numbers and his scouting reports. There is a long history of performance of many players that suggest his stuff doesn't project well. It's not about ignoring what he's done. It's about reconciling the eyes and stats. When the Kershaws and Buckholzs of the world are justifiably considered crapshoots, it's not a stretch to suggest an arm with unremarkable stuff isn't projectable.

Are you suggesting that Maloney has TOR potential?

REDREAD
05-30-2008, 02:04 PM
I'm not sure why people are in a hurry to see Maloney's debut.

Overrating youth. The same reason people got so excited about Belisle this past offseason. Optimism springs eternal for prospects, which is understandable if you are a Reds fan.. otherwise, it's kind of hard to keep hanging in there.

Caveat Emperor
05-30-2008, 02:06 PM
Overrating youth.

Or just a belief that there's a better chance you get surprised by a prospect you know nothing about vs. a veteran that you know stinks on ice.

REDREAD
05-30-2008, 02:12 PM
. Sending him down to the AAA bullpen diminishes his value to the Reds as protection for the young SP's at Louisville and as a potential trading chip.
.

I disagree. Belisle has no trade value. I think Fogg is probably more attractive based on his heroics last season. Not that Fogg has a whole lot of value either, but probaby 5% more than Belisle.. (5% more than practically zero isn't much :) )

Belisle has been very much exposed this season (as he was last season).
Would you be happy if the Reds traded for a Belisle clone? I don't think many here would be happy if we traded for a 27-28 year old guy that's never been able to get the job done, is in his arb years, and has an injury history. Not much to get excited about.

I wanted the Reds to put Belisle in the bullpen from opening day. So, I'm glad they are trying that now. Bring Belisle back up in a month or so and see if he's worth keeping for next year's bullpen.

REDREAD
05-30-2008, 02:16 PM
Or just a belief that there's a better chance you get surprised by a prospect you know nothing about vs. a veteran that you know stinks on ice.


Yep, the unknown is preferred to a familiar stench. That's a good point.
There's always hope that a new guy MIGHT be better.

RedsManRick
05-30-2008, 02:17 PM
There is value to be had in exposing your self to as many upside scenarios as possible. Giving Maloney a few chances to see what he can do with major leaguers has very little downside and a good deal of upside. Committing to Maloney as a Belisle replacement would be folly.

Belisle should serve as the wall against which other potentially higher upside options can be thrown.

lollipopcurve
05-30-2008, 02:24 PM
Belisle should serve as the wall against which other potentially higher upside options can be thrown.

And the OF wall has been serving as the destination for many of the pitches that Belisle has thrown. His stuff is worse than last year (perhaps attributable to injury) and his results have been, too. Time to see if others can do better.

RedsManRick
05-30-2008, 02:28 PM
And the OF wall has been serving as the destination for many of the pitches that Belisle has thrown. His stuff is worse than last year (perhaps attributable to injury) and his results have been, too. Time to see if others can do better.

I agree, so long as those alternatives are people who have not already proven themselves to be no better (namely, Josh Fogg).

Rojo
05-30-2008, 02:30 PM
Maloney might be a better option and probably deserves a shot at some point, but there's a very good chance he's no better than Belisle. I'd have no problem giving him a run at it, just keep expectations in check.

Check. Its because of my cool expectations of Maloney that I run him out there sooner rather than later. Why coddle someone who's ceiling isn't that high?

OnBaseMachine
05-30-2008, 02:44 PM
Baseball America says Matt Maloney is now running his fastball up there from 87-91 and describes it as having sinking action. They also describe his changeup as a plus pitch and he also throws a curveball that Dusty Baker was praising during the spring. He doesn't project as a great starter but I think he'll have a solid career as a #4 starter.

Cedric
05-30-2008, 02:51 PM
There is value to be had in exposing your self to as many upside scenarios as possible. Giving Maloney a few chances to see what he can do with major leaguers has very little downside and a good deal of upside. Committing to Maloney as a Belisle replacement would be folly.

Belisle should serve as the wall against which other potentially higher upside options can be thrown.

Sure about that? Look at Matt Belisle as a starter. He's historically bad. I would be stunned if Maloney was near as hittable as Belisle. Belisle has never pitched as good as Maloney at any level, never.

jojo
05-30-2008, 02:52 PM
Baseball America says Matt Maloney is now running his fastball up there from 87-91 and describes it as having sinking action. They also describe his changeup as a plus pitch and he also throws a curveball that Dusty Baker was praising during the spring. He doesn't project as a great starter but I think he'll have a solid career as a #4 starter.

Maloney is very capable of throwing his fastball 91 mph. However, the harder he throws it, the straighter it gets. As a major leaguer he'll most likely work in a velocity range that would be considered below average. In other words, for practical purposes, he doesn't/can't throw 90+ mph.

TRF
05-30-2008, 03:09 PM
Sure about that? Look at Matt Belisle as a starter. He's historically bad. I would be stunned if Maloney was near as hittable as Belisle. Belisle has never pitched as good as Maloney at any level, never.

No, Josh Fogg is historically bad. Last year Belisle was no worse than Arroyo. This year, I don't know what his problem is. I'd prefer to see him in Louisville's rotation than the pen though.

SMcGavin
05-30-2008, 04:01 PM
Maybe it would be easier to take a position seriously if you tried to understand it first or at least a counterargument would be easier to take seriously if it accurately represented the opposing position.

There is a big divide between Maloney's numbers and his scouting reports. There is a long history of performance of many players that suggest his stuff doesn't project well. It's not about ignoring what he's done. It's about reconciling the eyes and stats. When the Kershaws and Buckholzs of the world are justifiably considered crapshoots, it's not a stretch to suggest an arm with unremarkable stuff isn't projectable.

Are you suggesting that Maloney has TOR potential?

I understand both sides of the Maloney debate. There are great points on each side. If you look at every post I've made about him, you won't find a single statement along the lines of "Maloney is going to be a top ML pitcher". You won't even find a statement like "Maloney is going to be better than a #4 pitcher". My main issue with your take on Maloney is that you consistently suggest you know for a fact what his career is going to be like. Maloney's minor league numbers make a very convincing argument that he can be a successful MLB pitcher. When you state as fact things that are blatantly false ("Maloney is a left-handed Josh Fogg") or clearly debatable ("Maloney has hit a glass ceiling"), that's what makes you hard to take seriously. When I asked for one player who took a career path similar to the one you are so sure Maloney is going to go down, you couldn't give me an answer.

To answer your final question, no I don't see Maloney as a top of the rotation guy. I think he will be a successful major league pitcher. I wouldn't be suprised to see a Bronson Arroyo type career from him.

RedsManRick
05-30-2008, 04:09 PM
Jojo, in what scenario do you think it makes sense to promote Maloney? Am I correct in understanding that you would not do it at the expense of giving starts to Matt Belisle? Do you think he has more to gain developmentally in AAA before meriting a promotion?

I think we pretty well know the upper bounds of what we can get from Belisle. While I tend to agree with you on the likely career path for Maloney, I would think his AAA performance has earned him the opportunity to prove us wrong.

Aronchis
05-30-2008, 04:13 PM
Belisle's velocity has dropped. Actually it did last year to after mid-May when he declined alot.

It is also the reason why he was taken out of the bullpen. The hope was he could stay fresher not being forced to pitch alot.

I think he may just retire.

fearofpopvol1
05-30-2008, 04:46 PM
Maloney is not going to be an ace, but I think his ceiling is a #4-5 top starter. Belisle has continually shown that as a rotation starter, he is in the AAAA class, maybe AAA. I think Maloney can (and will be) more successful than Belisle and that in of itself can be valuable, especially while Thompson and Bailey continue their development.

jojo
05-30-2008, 05:21 PM
I understand both sides of the Maloney debate. There are great points on each side. If you look at every post I've made about him, you won't find a single statement along the lines of "Maloney is going to be a top ML pitcher". You won't even find a statement like "Maloney is going to be better than a #4 pitcher".

Then where is the argument? We agree, he projects to be a back end arm.


My main issue with your take on Maloney is that you consistently suggest you know for a fact what his career is going to be like.

I have not. I've made reasoned arguments on several occasions that his minor league numbers aren't likely to translate in my view. Could I be wrong? Well, sure. Making a reasoned argument is a lot different than claiming special communication with a deity. In fact hopefully I will be happily wrong in this case. That said, it's a straw man to deny anyone the grace of assuming they understand they can't predict the future with absolute certainty when they make an argument.


Maloney's minor league numbers make a very convincing argument that he can be a successful MLB pitcher.

Sure, especially if you ignore his stuff and of course depending upon the definition of successful. I don't recall ever saying Maloney will under no circumstances have a major league career. At issue is how successful and I think we're defining the term differently.


When you state as fact things that are blatantly false ("Maloney is a left-handed Josh Fogg") or clearly debatable ("Maloney has hit a glass ceiling"), that's what makes you hard to take seriously.

Above you argued that Maloney's ceiling is at best that of a 4th starter. Considering his schtick is basically to command 4 pitches that are essentially average in order to hunt and peck at below average velocity (or in other words use "moxy" and "guile"), how exactly is he going to be different than Josh Fogg in the majors (who happens to have a track record of a back end starter)?


When I asked for one player who took a career path similar to the one you are so sure Maloney is going to go down, you couldn't give me an answer.

Actually it was you who couldn't provide a long list of arms with similar stuff as Maloney who went on to be much more than a back end starter.

When it comes down to it, you essentially argue a similar likely projection for Maloney (his ceiling is that of a back end starter), it's just that you seem to take offense that I'm not as giddy about it.

SMcGavin
05-30-2008, 08:34 PM
Above you argued that Maloney's ceiling is at best that of a 4th starter. Considering his schtick is basically to command 4 pitches that are essentially average in order to hunt and peck at below average velocity (or in other words use "moxy" and "guile"), how exactly is he going to be different than Josh Fogg in the majors (who happens to have a track record of a back end starter)?.

I certainly did not argue that Maloney's ceiling is a #4 starter. What I was trying to convey is that I've never made a blanket statement along the lines of "Maloney is going to become X". I said that an Arroyo-like career from Maloney wouldn't surprise me, that's a very valuable thing to have under your team's control and it's certainly more than a #4 starter.

We've been down this road before with Fogg, so instead of a big debate I'll just ask this: if Maloney and Fogg are similar pitchers, why has Maloney had way better results than Fogg when they pitched the same levels at roughly the same age? I don't like Maloney because of moxie or guile, I like him because he strikes a ton of guys out while keeping the ball in the ballpark. This year his walks are down too. Perhaps at age 24 he hasn't already topped out?




Actually it was you who couldn't provide a long list of arms with similar stuff as Maloney who went on to be much more than a back end starter.


One guy who's been brought up is Noah Lowry. Another lefty with similar stuff. His minor league numbers weren't quite as impressive as Maloney's, but when Lowry came up to the bigs his first 300 innings showed a K/9 above 7 and an ERA under 4. I think we'd agree that's quite a bit better than back of the rotation stuff.

TRF
05-31-2008, 06:03 PM
grrrrr. good thing Belisle is in Louisville in the bullpen where he cannot excel. good thing Fogg is a human gas can throwing a game away and killing the reds pen.

That's some genius GM'ing right there.

reds44
05-31-2008, 06:07 PM
grrrrr. good thing Belisle is in Louisville in the bullpen where he cannot excel. good thing Fogg is a human gas can throwing a game away and killing the reds pen.

That's some genius GM'ing right there.
Belisle is awful, the problem wasn't sending him to AAA. The problem was replacing him with Josh Fogg.

Raisor
05-31-2008, 06:08 PM
Kent Merker, your next starter for the Reds.

buckeyenut
05-31-2008, 06:24 PM
Belisle is awful, the problem wasn't sending him to AAA. The problem was replacing him with Josh Fogg.

Agreed. Fogg should be waived before the game is over. If we waive him now, can we get a reliever here to pitch in the eighth or ninth today?

Cyclone792
05-31-2008, 09:42 PM
Can I get a refund for my ticket Saturday? Watching Fogg pitch is a waste of time and money.

You'll all be glad to know that ... I went to the game. Jay Bruce is always worth the time and money. ;)

Josh Fogg? Nothing changes, dude.

Patrick Bateman
05-31-2008, 10:19 PM
You'll all be glad to know that ... I went to the game. Jay Bruce is always worth the time and money. ;)

Josh Fogg? Nothing changes, dude.

Told ya' ;)

Spring~Fields
06-01-2008, 12:18 PM
Here is a quick rundown from Fangraphs on their career stats.

Fogg, age 31.5
K/9: 4.86
BB/9: 3.04
HR/9: 1.24
BABIP: .303
GB/FB: 1.18
LD: 21.0%
FIP: 4.95
ERA: 4.99

Belisle, age 28
K/9: 6.06
BB/9: 2.53
HR/9: 1.24
BABIP: .333
GB/FB: 1.43
LD: 22.0%
FIP: 4.59
ERA: 5.06

Given the small sample sizes of this year, and the variability and defense-dependent nature of ERA, Belisle clearly looks like the better pitcher given the numbers above. He's younger, strikes out more, walks fewer, and gets more grounders. The ERA difference can be largely attributed to home park (Fogg only pitched in the humidor version of Coors) and defense. Outside of his 2007 ERA, where's the argument for Fogg?

I don't fancy Belisle as a guy you give an extension to or anything, but maintain that he's among the best #5 starters in baseball, particularly given his price. Maloney might be a better option and probably deserves a shot at some point, but there's a very good chance he's no better than Belisle. I'd have no problem giving him a run at it, just keep expectations in check.

Additional food for thought in decisions regarding the 5th starter.