PDA

View Full Version : Homer Bailey to be called up and pitch Thursday in Philadelphia



OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 04:14 PM
It is Homer Bailey time - again

By Hal McCoy | Sunday, June 1, 2008, 11:21 AM
Latest comment

Homer Bailey is pitching Thursday - in Philadelphia, not Louisville.

When the Cincinnati Reds said they were putting Josh Fogg on the disabled list Sunday, I was tempted to ask, “With what, inflammation of the earned run average?”

But that would be cruel and he says he has back spasms. I’ve had back spasms. Nothing funny about it, especially when you can’t untie your shoes.

To replace him, the Reds called up relief pitcher Gary Majewski, which begs the question. Who starts Thursday in Philadelphia, Fogg’s turn?

Manager Dusty Baker was coy about it, but it is finally Homer Bailey time. Bailey was scheduled to pitch for the Class AAA Louisville Bats tonight and will, but is expected to pitch only two innings and take the rest of the night off.

He’ll face the Phillies Thursday in Philadelphia.

“After Saturday’s game, Fogg complained about his back,” said Baker. “We need some pitching help bad, so we couldn’t wait. We put Fogg on the DL and called up Majewski.”

Next start?

“Scuffling,” said Baker. “We’ll come up with somethng. We have a few days before we have to come up with something. There are a couple of guys lined up.

“Going into Philly…”

Somebody mentioned the Phillies are averaging like 12 runs a game over the last week and Baker said, “Be quiet, man. Every time I look in the paper, it’s like, oh my god. That’s why we have to get our pitching together.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 04:14 PM
Homer needs more time in AAA. Bad move by Walt, IMO.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 04:17 PM
Homer needs more time in AAA. Bad move by Walt, IMO.

It sounds like it's just one start.

reds44
06-01-2008, 04:19 PM
It sounds like it's just one start.
Why do you say that?

KronoRed
06-01-2008, 04:20 PM
Hopefully this is a placeholder and someone else will take the 5th spot after this week.

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 04:22 PM
Could be one start....could be lots of starts.


That's up to Homer.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 04:22 PM
Why do you say that?

Next start?

“Scuffling,” said Baker. “We’ll come up with somethng. We have a few days before we have to come up with something. There are a couple of guys lined up.

“Going into Philly…”

The blurb is written poorly because the question "Next start?" sounds like it's asking about the start after Thursday's; Baker's response to the "next start" question I take to mean the one after Bailey's on Thursday--so they're "scuffling" and "coming up" with a choice for the start to follow Bailey's presumably in the week after this one.

RedsManRick
06-01-2008, 04:25 PM
Bailey against a very patient, very powerful lineup in a HR friendly park -- not a great situation for him. Going to need to bring his A game.

reds44
06-01-2008, 04:25 PM
Next start?

“Scuffling,” said Baker. “We’ll come up with somethng. We have a few days before we have to come up with something. There are a couple of guys lined up.

“Going into Philly…”

The blurb is written poorly because the question "Next start?" sounds like it's asking about the start after Thursday's; Baker's response to the "next start" question I take to mean the one after Bailey's on Thursday--so they're "scuffling" and "coming up" with a choice for the start to follow Bailey's presumably in the week after this one.
I took that as the start going into Philly, but you could be right.

Interesting that we have Bruce, Votto, Cueto, Bailey, and Volquez all on the team at the same time. Not to mention Janish. It looks like the youth movement is finally happening.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 04:25 PM
Bad move by Jocketty. Homer has a lousy May in Louisville and you reward him?

RedsManRick
06-01-2008, 04:28 PM
You have wonder what Maloney is thinking. What else can the guy do to get his shot?

KronoRed
06-01-2008, 04:30 PM
You have wonder what Maloney is thinking. What else can the guy do to get his shot?

How bout a duel between Matt and Homer? :duel:

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 04:30 PM
You have wonder what Maloney is thinking. What else can the guy do to get his shot?

The only way it makes sense is if Homer only gets 1 start and then Maloney gets the next one while Fogg is on the DL. Even then, Maloney should get the 1st shot in my opinion.

Again, bad move by Jocketty.

Caveat Emperor
06-01-2008, 04:34 PM
You know what -- why the hell not?

The team is going young: Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, and Janish all on the 25 man... why not throw Bailey (who, despite his failures, is still clearly an amazingly talented pitcher) out there too and see if confidence and success is contagious among the kids?

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 04:37 PM
I'm with you....look at the life this team all of a sudden has with some youth.

I like it.

icehole3
06-01-2008, 04:46 PM
Homer will be just fine, people were worried about Cueto too, I have 100% confidence in Homer

RedsManRick
06-01-2008, 04:48 PM
Psychologically, it could be a good thing for Homer to be getting the same opportunities as his peers. If he can't be coached in to a certain mental approach, a little peer pressure could go a long ways.

Patrick Bateman
06-01-2008, 04:53 PM
From a stats perspective it's pretty clear that he's not ready.... but there is one thing to consider IMO.

Bailey has seemed pretty frustrated pitching in AAA, mainly due to his immaturity, but maybe this is the thing he needs to light a fire under his ass. You might see the effort and concentration start coming through.

I'd still much rather he keep pitching in AAA, but at worst, this might serve as a reality check in the event he gets hammered around profusely.

mth123
06-01-2008, 04:54 PM
Psychologically, it could be a good thing for Homer to be getting the same opportunities as his peers. If he can't be coached in to a certain mental approach, a little peer pressure could go a long ways.

I was thinking the same thing. I really know nothing of the situation, but have suspected that Homer has had a chip on his shoulder since being sent down last year. Maybe a major league job will clear the air and let him get back to business (if there is anything to it).

I still fear the workload progression issues that can't be resolved without leaving him in AAA all year. How is the team going to protect Cueto, Homer and Volquez from being overworked? The team really needs a vet it can ride hard so they can go lighter on the other days. We've seen Arroyo be impacted for weeks after being left in too long and Harang showed some fatigue last time as well.

M2
06-01-2008, 05:07 PM
Bailey against a very patient, very powerful lineup in a HR friendly park -- not a great situation for him. Going to need to bring his A game.

I'm trying to think of worse circumstance for calling up Bailey and I can't. The franchise in lining it up so that the Phillies can shellshock Bailey's season again.

oregonred
06-01-2008, 05:13 PM
This will keep the board humming the rest of the week :)

Jocketty may be hoping to catch lightning in a bottle to see if this team can build on the nice run over the last three weeks. Throw a talented arm into an up and coming rotation with a couple of other kids and see what the heck happens.

Personally, I wouldn't start him against Philly in that park for his first game, but what the heck it might work out ok -- stranger things have happened. If he gets bombed, back to AAA. If he surprises us, meet your #5 starter.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 05:15 PM
I'm trying to think of worse circumstance for calling up Bailey and I can't. The franchise in lining it up so that the Phillies can shellshock Bailey's season again.

Philly is about the worst matchup in baseball for Homer Bailey. If you're going to call him up then start him in Florida in a big ball park, not a bandbox against maybe the best offense in baseball.

NC Reds
06-01-2008, 05:18 PM
Maybe they did not want to shellshock Maloney. I don't know. I would have preferred a lefty starter against Philly.

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 05:19 PM
Maloney may not be on the 40 man roster...

membengal
06-01-2008, 05:20 PM
Apparently Maloney not on the 40-man, whch may be what has worked against him here. Too bad.

Good luck to homer. This team could use him being decent.

NC Reds
06-01-2008, 05:21 PM
He's not on the 40 man roster. This is true. However, it would take little to put him there. Drew Anderson and Chris Dickerson should be thankful for now.

RedsManRick
06-01-2008, 05:21 PM
I think it's safe to say that Josh Fogg has Maloney's spot on the 40 man then.

Sea Ray
06-01-2008, 05:26 PM
I'm wondering if this is a put up or shut up start for Homer. They're saying to him "OK, you think you've got it all figured out. Go pitch us a ballgame against these fellas and if you get hammered shut the ... up, buckle down and show us you know you still have something to learn

oregonred
06-01-2008, 05:27 PM
A Homer debate.

This thread may hit 100 posts by about 7pm :)

icehole3
06-01-2008, 05:27 PM
I'll take a 6 IP 6 H 3 ER 3 BB 5 Ks from Homer thursday and then get him ready for his next start.

WVRedsFan
06-01-2008, 05:29 PM
Strange. No mention of this on radio or TV. Dusty acts dumb about it in his post-game interview, and just silence on it.

I wonder if this wasn't mis-information?

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 05:35 PM
Speculation maybe?

Kc61
06-01-2008, 05:43 PM
Other than one blog, has this appeared anywhere else?

wheels
06-01-2008, 05:45 PM
This is a really bad idea.

It could come up rosey, but chances are Homer's in for a malicious drubbing.

I really hope it isn't true.

LoganBuck
06-01-2008, 05:51 PM
Bring it on. If Homer is sulking a reality check may be in order. He reminds me of Matt Garza over the last few years. The guy has the talent, if it takes proving it to him at the big league level, fine. If he steps up great. The only downside I see is him getting beat around and falling into a pit of self doubt. If he gets beat around, maybe someone will finally be able to get through his (allegedly) thick skull.

Unassisted
06-01-2008, 06:52 PM
I'm wondering if this is a put up or shut up start for Homer. They're saying to him "OK, you think you've got it all figured out. Go pitch us a ballgame against these fellas and if you get hammered shut the ... up, buckle down and show us you know you still have something to learnI like that theory and notion. :thumbup:

Highlifeman21
06-01-2008, 06:59 PM
I'm trying to think of worse circumstance for calling up Bailey and I can't. The franchise in lining it up so that the Phillies can shellshock Bailey's season again.

On the bright side for the Phillies, Homer starting for the Reds will help them gain ground in the NL East.

Might help Ryan Howard right his ship, as well.

I don't see a lot of positives for the Reds with this move.

I do wonder, however, if Homer will bring his favorite hunting magazines to Citizens Bank, or if he'll just pick some up when the team arrives at the airport. Cuz that's important stuff, ya know.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 07:04 PM
I do wonder, however, if Homer will bring his favorite hunting magazines to Citizens Bank, or if he'll just pick some up when the team arrives at the airport. Cuz that's important stuff, ya know.

That was an unfounded rumor.

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 07:05 PM
They are trying to push Homer's buttons. He underperformed a good deal in May and his velocity was like he wasn't giving much effort.

Fact is, headcase type players, you don't know what will happen. Will he finally pitch with some fire? Will he continue to wallow away?

With Homer, it is more than technical problems, he has spirtual problems.

I think we are seeing Jocketty playing some mindgames with Homer. This ought to be good.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 07:08 PM
I honestly couldn't care less about Bailey's development. I don't think much of his ceiling (as opposed to the limitless ceiling of Cueto's), so his getting shellshocked doesn't bother me.

What could bother me, however, is if the Reds consider him a viable option for the 5th slot. If it's for one start, fine. If they keep running him out there, good or bad, then I'll be angry.

(On the other hand, I can hardly blame the FO for throwing crap at the wall and hoping it'll stick; the former GM tied their hands depth-wise).

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:13 PM
It'll be interesting to see if he looks any different....in both mound presence and stuff.

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 07:17 PM
It'll be interesting to see if he looks any different....in both mound presence and stuff.

If you saw his May performances, they were a lot different........alot worse. He had the fire of a 90 year old man.

This is like a Shot in the Dark idea.

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:18 PM
I didn't see any of them. I'm stuck up here. :D

Did you actually see them or are you just spouting off whatever suits your bias against him?

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 07:21 PM
I didn't see any of them.

Did you actually see them or are you just spouting off whatever suits your bias against him?

Yes, I saw 1 game on TV and others on the minor league site which were available.

His peformance(or non-performance) speaks for itself in May.

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:22 PM
May was pretty bad (based on the numbers, that's all I have).

April wasn't.

We'll see.

jojo
06-01-2008, 07:22 PM
I'm trying to think of worse circumstance for calling up Bailey and I can't. The franchise in lining it up so that the Phillies can shellshock Bailey's season again.

He'll be wearing his groin brace this time.

Seriously, throwing a carrot to Homer (a spot start) can also serve as a barometer for his development which can be a good thing. He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will throw in the towel if he gets banged around for a start. His '07 and the subsequent ST allegedly hasn't damaged his sense of self....

I don't think his '07 debut can be blamed on a poor makeup. He wasn't shell shocked by a little failure-he failed because he just wasn't ready.

WVRedsFan
06-01-2008, 07:23 PM
I honestly couldn't care less about Bailey's development. I don't think much of his ceiling (as opposed to the limitless ceiling of Cueto's), so his getting shellshocked doesn't bother me.

We disagree here, but as time passes, I come more in line with your thinking.


What could bother me, however, is if the Reds consider him a viable option for the 5th slot. If it's for one start, fine. If they keep running him out there, good or bad, then I'll be angry.

I really don't expect that. What I do expect is a lot of expermentation on that 5th spot. Bailey, Maloney, etc. will be up and down for awhile. It can't be any worse than Belisle and Fogg. I imagine Walt is keeping the lines hot trying to get rid of both right now.


(On the other hand, I can hardly blame the FO for throwing crap at the wall and hoping it'll stick; the former GM tied their hands depth-wise).

As you might imagine, I totally agree. For all the good acquisitions (Phillips, Volquez, Arroyo, etc.), there were just as many clunkers and the clunkers were really bad. To add insult to injury, the roster was a mess and still is nearly disfunctinal, but Jocketty is moving toward fixing that. I think more moves are coming and pretty soon.

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 07:27 PM
Cueto ceiling limitless? Most laughable quote I have read in a while.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 07:29 PM
Cueto ceiling limitless? Most laughable quote I have read in a while.

He's got the tools. He's young (probably too young to be a full-time starter in MLB right now), but as I've said before, he's got all the right tools.

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:30 PM
He's got the tools. He's young (probably too young to be a full-time starter in MLB right now), but as I've said before, he's got all the right tools.

If he's too young, then Bruce is too young.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 07:32 PM
If he's too young, then Bruce is too young.

Development for pitchers and hitters is different.

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 07:32 PM
He's got the tools. He's young (probably too young to be a full-time starter in MLB right now), but as I've said before, he's got all the right tools.

Yup, but they are limited. We saw what happened when his velocity fell off and his offspeed stuff wasn't there to pick up the pieces.

Volquez's upside would be mentioned as unlimited. But Cueto's has a ceiling that will be below the Pedro's and Oswalts however. If he can be Tim Hudson, I think most would like that.

membengal
06-01-2008, 07:32 PM
Homer doing nothing in AAA tonite to assuage concerns about why he is getting the call over Maloney...

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:33 PM
Yup, but they are limited. We saw what happened when his velocity fell off and his offspeed stuff wasn't there to pick up the pieces.

Volquez's upside would be mentioned as unlimited. But Cueto's has a ceiling that will be below the Pedro's and Oswalts however. If he can be Tim Hudson, I think most would like that.

Jay Bruce is the only player in history with limitless tools :D

Matt700wlw
06-01-2008, 07:36 PM
Homer Bailey vs Hal McCoy in a steel cage match!!

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 07:50 PM
Hal may have been wrong. Homer just went back out there for the third inning. Maybe he's on a pitch count or something and will be pulled when he reaches it.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 07:56 PM
Nope...Hal was right. Homer Bailey was pulled with two outs in the third inning after reaching his pitch count.

WVRedsFan
06-01-2008, 07:56 PM
Call me a dreamer, but it may be that Walt is working on a minor deal. It could be that he has found a suitor for Freel or Patterson or Belisle, or Fogg and Bailey was only a stopgap idea floated to Hal and he ran with it. Maybe Dusty's comment that he "couldn't comment on who would start" was code that a deal was in the works. I hope so.

WVRedsFan
06-01-2008, 07:57 PM
Nope...Hal was right. Homer Bailey was pulled with two outs in the third inning after reaching his pitch count.


Oh well, I'm a dreamer.

What was the pitch count? If he reached it with 2 outs in the third, he must have been struggling. Yikes!

Spring~Fields
06-01-2008, 07:58 PM
Maybe Bailey can work through it at this level like Cueto is.

GoReds
06-01-2008, 07:59 PM
Homer coming up to pitch a game while Fogg goes DL is fine, but it sure puts a premium on a bullpen already stretched to the limit. The Reds will then carry 13 pitchers, but they don't really have a long man. Even though Volquez and Cueto have had their moments, neither pitches into the seventh on a regular basis. Now add Homer to the list and there are now three starters who will need quite a bit of backup on their pitching days. If one implodes on a regular basis, it's a problem, but there's a decent chance that two of them could pitch back-to-back stinkers and really drain the pen.

Spring~Fields
06-01-2008, 07:59 PM
Oh well, I'm a dreamer.

What was the pitch count? If he reached it with 2 outs in the third, he must have been struggling. Yikes!

Bailey 2.2 3 2 2 2 1 0 4.15

49-30

MWM
06-01-2008, 08:03 PM
Count me in the camp that thinks this is just dumb.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 08:03 PM
Is it 100% confirmed he's pitching on Thursday? Wouldn't he be pitching on short(er) rest?

I still haven't seen any official confirmation yet.

Highlifeman21
06-01-2008, 08:09 PM
That was an unfounded rumor.

If I cared enough (which I don't), I'd go back and find all the various mentions of his hunting magazines by media members that cover the Reds.

Like I've said about Homer, where there's smoke, there's fire. I find it hard to believe the media hates the kid so much that they'll make up anything.

Unless they are just looking for excuses why the boy phenom isn't living up to that billing. Or better yet, just making excuses for him?

Highlifeman21
06-01-2008, 08:11 PM
He'll be wearing his groin brace this time.

Seriously, throwing a carrot to Homer (a spot start) can also serve as a barometer for his development which can be a good thing. He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will throw in the towel if he gets banged around for a start. His '07 and the subsequent ST allegedly hasn't damaged his sense of self....

I don't think his '07 debut can be blamed on a poor makeup. He wasn't shell shocked by a little failure-he failed because he just wasn't ready.

Good call on the groin brace.

Philly was the scene of the crime that ruined Homer's 2007 campaign.

I had completely forgotten about his groin and that incident involving the mound at Citizens Bank. That is until you mentioned groin brace.

Maybe they'll tape his groin, or give him some extra tight compression shorts to guard against that mound that injured him last year?

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 08:24 PM
The groin injury was real. The effect it had on his breaking pitch was noticeable post-injury when he came back at the end.

Homer's problem has been struggling with velocity. He doesn't have offspeed pitches so he needs the heat.

oregonred
06-01-2008, 08:46 PM
I honestly couldn't care less about Bailey's development. I don't think much of his ceiling (as opposed to the limitless ceiling of Cueto's), so his getting shellshocked doesn't bother me.

What could bother me, however, is if the Reds consider him a viable option for the 5th slot. If it's for one start, fine. If they keep running him out there, good or bad, then I'll be angry.

(On the other hand, I can hardly blame the FO for throwing crap at the wall and hoping it'll stick; the former GM tied their hands depth-wise).

Later in the year, about 27 other teams would love to have a Homer Bailey in the rotation mix for their 5th slot. Most teams can barely fill out a 4th slot without reaching for veteran rotation fodder.

OnBaseMachine
06-01-2008, 08:57 PM
If I cared enough (which I don't), I'd go back and find all the various mentions of his hunting magazines by media members that cover the Reds.

Like I've said about Homer, where there's smoke, there's fire. I find it hard to believe the media hates the kid so much that they'll make up anything.

Unless they are just looking for excuses why the boy phenom isn't living up to that billing. Or better yet, just making excuses for him?

Hal started the rumor...Hal's the same guy who said Homer didn't get a pie in the face last year after his first major league win because his teammates didn't like him. That was totally false because Homer DID receive the pie in the face. Hal has a grudge against the kid.

Sea Ray
06-01-2008, 09:11 PM
For the record, I don't support starting him at all. I'd use him in the major leagues in the bullpen for this year kind of like how the Reds began with Jose Rijo or the Astros with Roy Oswalt or the Yankees with Joba Chamberlin. I don't see how sticking him in the rotation will end well for him or the team.

osuceltic
06-01-2008, 09:23 PM
I see no harm in this. All most of us are seeing are line scores. There's a lot of information left out of a line score. Maybe they've seen improved execution with the pitches they've asked him to work on. Maybe they're trying to give the kid a carrot and see if it improves his focus and attitude. Who knows? What's the worst that can happen? He goes out there and gets knocked around. Big deal.

Maloney and Thompson will get their chances. No harm in giving Homer a little push.

reds44
06-01-2008, 09:24 PM
Maybe Bailey can work through it at this level like Cueto is.
I just don't see it. It's something that we hopefully will never find out, but if Cueto went to AAA I would expect him to totally overmatch AAA hitters, something Bailey is not doing. I think a lot of Cueto's troubles this year have to do with immaturity.

Cueto in Cincinnati:
4-5
5.11 ERA
12 GS
68.2 IP
69 H
44 R
39 ER
14 HR
20 BB
62 K

Bailey in AAA:
4-4
4.15 ERA
12 GS
69.1 IP
66 H
31 R
30 ER
6 HR
31 BB
55 K

Other than HRs, their peripherals are pretty similar, and Cueto has 7 more Ks and 11 less walks is just about the same amount of innings. Homer still has plenty to learn in AAA, where as I think Cueto has nothing to learn down there.

The only explanation for this move is if Walt thinks Homer is disinterested in AAA and this is an atempt to get him pitching to his full potential. Good luck with that one.

M2
06-01-2008, 09:39 PM
He'll be wearing his groin brace this time.

Seriously, throwing a carrot to Homer (a spot start) can also serve as a barometer for his development which can be a good thing. He doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who will throw in the towel if he gets banged around for a start. His '07 and the subsequent ST allegedly hasn't damaged his sense of self....

I don't think his '07 debut can be blamed on a poor makeup. He wasn't shell shocked by a little failure-he failed because he just wasn't ready.

Bailey strikes me as incredibly fragile. I take his bravado as a front. If the other team shows a little fight, he crumbles. And I really do believe his "stuff" problems are more mental than mechanical.

If the Phillies cuff him around, it could be a month before he's got his head in the right place to pitch another good game (plummeting what trade value he has right before the trade deadline).

Mind you, I don't like his callup for multiple reasons beyond that. There's really nothing to like about the decision making process behind this move. Yet the potential downside is massive. Hopefully some extra rest will put some pop on his fastball along with some better control and a debacle can be avoided.

Stormy
06-01-2008, 09:53 PM
He's got the tools. He's young (probably too young to be a full-time starter in MLB right now), but as I've said before, he's got all the right tools.

Probably too young to be a full-time starter, or 3 years away from having a positive impact? That's a big discrepancy.

SunDeck
06-01-2008, 10:08 PM
No harm in bringing him in to make a start. If he tanks, so what? That's what Fogg would do anyway. Bring him up for a start, maybe two and see how he does. If he's the kind of guy who doesn't have it between the ears to make it in the big leagues, and if he's really got all these attitude problems, then there is no difference in his trade value if he stays at Louisville or makes a few starts for the Reds. It's a small world, the major leagues; there's no way his value isn't already established. After all, contrary to what Marge used to say, these guys sitting around watching baseball games know a little bit about evaluating the youngsters.

Anyway, I am amazed at how fast everyone has turned on Bailey. Last year, all we heard was that he had a great attitude, and now he's a big baby. Personally, I am thrilled the Reds landed Volquez and that Cueto pitched his way onto the club so that Bailey has a little more time to develop.




Bailey off to roaring start
Sharp in Triple-A debut with Bats
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

PHOENIX - Reds phenom Homer Bailey fell off the radar after the club sent him to minor-league camp in early March.

The reports from the minor-league people were that he was sticking to the program and making progress.

The results showed Sunday night in his Triple-A debut.

Bailey went 5 1/3 innings and allowed only one run on one hit in the Bats' 13-3 victory over Toledo. First base prospect Joey Votto hit a grand slam and drove in five runs.

The run Bailey allowed came on a solo home run in the fourth by veteran Timo Perez.

"He threw the ball very well," player development director Terry Reynolds said. "It was really cold. He pitched off his fastball. He had a good curveball and a pretty good change up.

"He really only made one mistake - the high fastball Perez tomahawked out."

Reds manager Jerry Narron, who had a lot of fun last year talking about Bailey, feigned ignorance on Bailey's outing.

"I haven't seen it," Narron said. "What did he give up, one run or something like that?"

Bailey, 20, a right-hander, didn't sulk when he got sent down.

"His attitude was great," Reynolds said. "He learned a lot in big league camp. He knows exactly what he has to do. He's a smart kid."

Reynolds likes the synergy between Bailey and Louisville pitching coach Ted Power.

"I think they're going to be good together," Reynolds said. "Homer relates to Ted well. Ted has been through it."

GAC
06-01-2008, 10:09 PM
Bailey has seemed pretty frustrated pitching in AAA, mainly due to his immaturity, but maybe this is the thing he needs to light a fire under his ass. You might see the effort and concentration start coming through.

Lets hope. But if the kid can't handle the demotion and give it his all while in AAA and show this FO he deserves to be pitching at the ML level, then that tells me his emotional maturity needs to improve too (besides his stats).

But we really have no choice since we have a void in that #5 slot. Yeah, I'd like to see Maloney given his chance; but of the two, the only one with any ML experience at all is Bailey. And I'm assuming that was influential in Walt's decision.

PuffyPig
06-01-2008, 10:11 PM
Cueto is about 45th in ERA in the NL right now.

That mean he's about an average #3.

That suggest he belongs in the majors.

membengal
06-01-2008, 10:13 PM
I'll say this for Bailey, thanks to Volquez, Cueto, Votto, and now Bruce, there are enough new fresh faces on the team that there should not be as much pressure on him from a you-are-the-one-to-save-the-franchise-and-sell-tickets standpoint this time around. That may be a very helpful thing for him.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 10:15 PM
Cueto is about 45th in ERA in the NL right now.

That mean he's about an average #3.

That suggest he belongs in the majors.

If you're looking at ERA as a determiner.

He had a good game today. Something to build on. But I think it's better to be cautious when developing a kid of Cueto's pedigree.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 10:16 PM
No harm in bringing him in to make a start. If he tanks, so what? That's what Fogg would do anyway. Bring him up for a start, maybe two and see how he does. If he's the kind of guy who doesn't have it between the ears to make it in the big leagues, and if he's really got all these attitude problems, then there is no difference in his trade value if he stays at Louisville or makes a few starts for the Reds. It's a small world, the major leagues; there's no way his value isn't already established. After all, contrary to what Marge used to say, these guys sitting around watching baseball games know a little bit about evaluating the youngsters.

Anyway, I am amazed at how fast everyone has turned on Bailey. Last year, all we heard was that he had a great attitude, and now he's a big baby. Personally, I am thrilled the Reds landed Volquez and that Cueto pitched his way onto the club so that Bailey has a little more time to develop.

The problem is your argument ignores the mental/psychological effects it could have on his development. Last year's callup was a big enough setback. No reason to set him back further and/or hurt his trade value should Walt be interested in trading him for another piece that could help this team.

GAC
06-01-2008, 10:17 PM
It may just be a temporary (spot start) guys...... till Fogg gets back. :D

Aronchis
06-01-2008, 10:18 PM
The problem is your argument ignores the mental/psychological effects it could have on his development. Last year's callup was a big enough setback. No reason to set him back further and/or hurt his trade value should Walt be interested in trading him for another piece that could help this team.

The problem is he isn't developing at all in AAA. His velocity is junk.

Jocketty is playing headgames with Homer looking for a answer.

Chip R
06-01-2008, 10:19 PM
I don't think this is the ideal situation to bring him up to but if he can pitch well in Philly, he can pitch well anywhere including GAB. Florida would be more ideal but they could smack him around as much as Philly could. We all know what happened when he made a start in OAK. He was terrific there and a lot of it may have been due to OAK being a pitcher's park. Now he's going right back into the fire. First Philly and then StL at home where he got roughed up by them last year. Maybe it's a recipe for disaster but if he's supposed to be the ace everyone thinks he is going to be, then he's going to have learn to pitch against teams like them and he's not going to learn it in LOU.

Reports are that he had a bad attitude in LOU. Personally, I don't care if he never signed an autograph or shunned every beat writer or played mumblety peg with his hunting knife between starts. If he thinks he didn't belong in LOU, he's got to prove it and his first test is going to be against one of the best offenses in the NL in their yard. If he does well, great. If not, then maybe he does belong in LOU and then he can sit down there and sulk. A lot of people don't get second chances to make it in the majors. Homer's getting that chance and it's on him to make the best of it and show the Reds they were wrong.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 10:19 PM
It may just be a temporary (spot start) guys...... tell Fogg gets back. :D

Problem is, spot start or not, you're asking a kid to make his first start this season in the bigs against what is arguably the best offense in the NL. It's just asking for a disaster.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 10:21 PM
Who would you guys call up if not Homer?

Honest question.

Degenerate39
06-01-2008, 10:22 PM
Who would you guys call up if not Homer?

Honest question.

Right now I would call up Maloney most likely. I'm not opposed to calling Homer up though.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 10:23 PM
Who would you guys call up if not Homer?

Honest question.

Maloney. I know he doesn't project to be great, but he is a little bit older than Bailey, he has pitched better than Bailey as of late, he has surrendered a grand total of 1 home run this year in AAA and maybe most importantly, he can control his pitches. Not to mention, how great would it be for him for his first start to be against the organization that traded him? It might give him some extra adrenaline.

Edited to say: I realize many aren't high on Maloney, but I don't think you're going to be exposing him to other scouts or anything. Most people seem to think Thompson/Bailey are better long term options, so why not let Maloney take over until Bailey/Thompson are ready (or until they can be traded if that is what Walt wants to do) and then move Maloney after that?

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 10:25 PM
Maloney. I know he doesn't project to be great, but he is a little bit older than Bailey, he has pitched better than Bailey as of late, he has surrendered a grand total of 1 home run this year in AAA and maybe most importantly, he can control his pitches. Not to mention, how great would it be for him for his first start to be against the organization that traded him? It might give him some extra adrenaline.

I actually think it's just as likely that Maloney gets clobbered by Philly. I guess the "older" argument is a reasonable one, but again if it's just one start, I don't mind Bailey.

15fan
06-01-2008, 10:26 PM
Can't Jay Bruce just pitch on Thursday?

GAC
06-01-2008, 10:27 PM
Problem is, spot start or not, you're asking a kid to make his first start this season in the bigs against what is arguably the best offense in the NL. It's just asking for a disaster.


How else are you going to avoid that though, unless you jerk around your rotation even more. You already got your top three guys scheduled to pitch the next three days, so do you bring Cueto back on Thursday on short rest? That could be asking too much and inviting disaster too.

Caveat Emperor
06-01-2008, 10:28 PM
Who would you guys call up if not Homer?

Honest question.

Maloney's a lefty -- I'd probably have just cut Fogg, added Maloney to the 40-man and hoped he got the better of the LH power the Phillies run out there. He didn't exactly inspire confidence with his spring training performances, though.

Having said that, I like the reverse logic of giving the start to Bailey. The numerical indicators say "not ready" -- but there's stuff beyond the numbers going on with this team right now. You've got a lot of his former Louisville teammates up here playing well -- it's a team that is getting younger and winning ballgames in the process. Homer seems to be a headcase; maybe this is the kind of environment that can help him get his head in the game and get right.

I also like the other point made earlier -- if he's pouting at AAA, the call up is basically a message "OK, if you think you can do it, go do it and prove us wrong. But, if it doesn't work, then it's time for you to listen for a change."

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 10:28 PM
I actually think it's just as likely that Maloney gets clobbered by Philly. I guess the "older" argument is a reasonable one, but again if it's just one start, I don't mind Bailey.

If it's just for 1 start, I guess it's not horrible. I'd just prefer Maloney to get a shot 1st. I think he's earned it more than Bailey has, but I guess that sort of merit likely isn't taken into consideration.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 10:30 PM
How else are you going to avoid that though, unless you jerk around your rotation even more. You already got your top three guys scheduled to pitch the next three days, so do you bring Cueto back on Thursday on short rest? That could be asking too much and inviting disaster too.

I think you give Maloney a chance for the reasons I stated to FCB. It may or may not work out, but I like the idea of rewarding someone like Maloney (who is a lefty) and deserves the promotion based on performance over the last month.

AmarilloRed
06-01-2008, 10:32 PM
It's a spot start,and the only person who can make anything more of it is Homer Bailey. He gives us a quality start, and he will continue to gets starts as the 5th starter. He gets himself clobbered by Philadelpha, and I imagine we will see Maloney next time around. He has a chance to start for the Reds now; it's up to him to make the most of that chance.

Caveat Emperor
06-01-2008, 10:34 PM
I actually think it's just as likely that Maloney gets clobbered by Philly. I guess the "older" argument is a reasonable one, but again if it's just one start, I don't mind Bailey.

Just playing Devil's Advocate, but: Why does it matter if its more than 1 start?

His development has stagnated, by all accounts, at AAA. His trade value is probably at a low-ebb right now.

He'd have a tough time doing worse than the 7-9 ERA they've been getting from Belisle and Fogg out of the #5 spot. Why not just leave him in the bigs and let him learn on the job? If he posts a 5 ERA, that's a huge improvement.

Spring~Fields
06-01-2008, 10:34 PM
I just don't see it. It's something that we hopefully will never find out, but if Cueto went to AAA I would expect him to totally overmatch AAA hitters, something Bailey is not doing. I think a lot of Cueto's troubles this year have to do with immaturity.

Cueto in Cincinnati:
4-5
5.11 ERA
12 GS
68.2 IP
69 H
44 R
39 ER
14 HR
20 BB
62 K

Bailey in AAA:
4-4
4.15 ERA
12 GS
69.1 IP
66 H
31 R
30 ER
6 HR
31 BB
55 K

Other than HRs, their peripherals are pretty similar, and Cueto has 7 more Ks and 11 less walks is just about the same amount of innings. Homer still has plenty to learn in AAA, where as I think Cueto has nothing to learn down there.

The only explanation for this move is if Walt thinks Homer is disinterested in AAA and this is an atempt to get him pitching to his full potential. Good luck with that one.

It is not about Cueto going anywhere, Cueto has shown improvement in his last two starts after today's outing.

Jocketty probably just needed some filler with Fogg being just placed on the DL, after sending down Belisle, and Maloney not being on the 40 man roster, in addition to Thompson just being promoted to Louisville, that left Bailey or Pettyjohn, and for some reason the staff chose Bailey. Perhaps it wasn't a convenient timing to move someone off of the roster to place Maloney on it.

I can’t see any of them on the minor league level being ready to effectively start for the Reds, but that doesn’t mean that they can’t cover some innings until Jocketty finds a better solution. That doesn’t mean that none of them would have some success at this level.

Until we see them actually pitch for an extended time at the major league level, we can use conjecture and all awhile expect problems for any of them as most of them are inconsistent at this point as is expected of young inexperienced pitchers.

Baker would want the closest thing to an experienced pitcher, Bailey has some experience, perhaps that was what gave him a narrow edge for a start, if in fact Bailey starts. What other immediate options did they have ?


After Fogg and Belisle I am ambivalent to whoever pitches in that fifth spot until Jocketty has had time to improve the team.

BCubb2003
06-01-2008, 10:36 PM
This scoop seems exclusive to Hal, and I'm not sure why.

Falls City Beer
06-01-2008, 10:38 PM
Just playing Devil's Advocate, but: Why does it matter if its more than 1 start?

His development has stagnated, by all accounts, at AAA. His trade value is probably at a low-ebb right now.

He'd have a tough time doing worse than the 7-9 ERA they've been getting from Belisle and Fogg out of the #5 spot. Why not just leave him in the bigs and let him learn on the job? If he posts a 5 ERA, that's a huge improvement.

I guess I don't mind that much, but if he bombs then I think it's fair to say his trade value will be almost nil. Or at least the lowest it's been since being drafted.

vaticanplum
06-01-2008, 10:54 PM
He'll be wearing his groin brace this time.

Oh yeah, I've heard that one before, kid.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:09 PM
Bailey strikes me as incredibly fragile. I take his bravado as a front. If the other team shows a little fight, he crumbles. And I really do believe his "stuff" problems are more mental than mechanical.

If the Phillies cuff him around, it could be a month before he's got his head in the right place to pitch another good game (plummeting what trade value he has right before the trade deadline).

Mind you, I don't like his callup for multiple reasons beyond that. There's really nothing to like about the decision making process behind this move. Yet the potential downside is massive. Hopefully some extra rest will put some pop on his fastball along with some better control and a debacle can be avoided.

The decision process was probably pretty simple. "Who can we give a spot start that doesn't require kicking someone off of the 40 man?"

As an aside, if one game is enough to destroy a guy then basically jettison him for what you can get.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:12 PM
The problem is your argument ignores the mental/psychological effects it could have on his development. Last year's callup was a big enough setback. No reason to set him back further and/or hurt his trade value should Walt be interested in trading him for another piece that could help this team.

I'm sorry but I think the mental toll from one game is overstated alot.

BTW, Homer was actually hurt last season too-irregardless of whether his leg was falling off or just "nagging". Also, I don't care if he had the make up of the rock of gibraltar......he wasn't going to be lights out last season.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 11:17 PM
I'm sorry but I think the mental toll from one game is overstated alot.

BTW, Homer was actually hurt last season too-irregardless of whether his leg was falling off or just "nagging". Also, I don't care if he had the make up of the rock of gibraltar......he wasn't going to be lights out last season.

But we don't know if it's just for 1 start or not. If it is, I still don't agree, but I'll live with it.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:20 PM
I think you give Maloney a chance for the reasons I stated to FCB. It may or may not work out, but I like the idea of rewarding someone like Maloney (who is a lefty) and deserves the promotion based on performance over the last month.

I thought starting pitchers had to kick the door down... 4 starts earns something? He's entitled to nothing especially since it means kicking someone off of the 40 man to give him a spot start.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 11:22 PM
I thought starting pitchers had to kick the door down... 4 starts earns something? He's entitled to nothing especially since it means kicking someone off of the 40 man to give him a spot start.

Yeah, because that Chris Dickerson and Drew Anderson sure are going to do a lot for this Reds team.

membengal
06-01-2008, 11:27 PM
Agree with fear, jojo. Pretty sure that Dickerson and Anderson are not good reasons to hold back Maloney.

AGAIN, I am not saying Maloney is the second coming of John Tudor. Just that he has done enough in the minors, and established enough of a record of success, that I think he would have a shot to help this team in Philly and beyond. A lefty in the rotation is somewhat attractive to me. And the baseline for competence has certainly been lowered by Fogg/Belisle with regard to the back of this team's rotation. I think Maloney has a shot to put up an era around 5.25 in Cincy.

Not a great ERA certainly, but an improvement over what we have seen.

With Bailey? Not sure what we will get at this point. I still like the kid, a lot, but would have preferred him to work some more in AAA throughout the summer.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:29 PM
Yeah, because that Chris Dickerson and Drew Anderson sure are going to do a lot for this Reds team.

This all assumes that Hal's report is correct, but, you torch a warm body (who despite not being in the major league plans is still performing a role in your system) in exchange for 5 innings when there is a better option ( I guess some could argue otherwise but certainly no one could argue Maloney is a sure bet to be better than Homer)?

The_jbh
06-01-2008, 11:32 PM
If Homer Bailey is the choice, it is a clear sign that this team is playing into our emotions.

If he is brought up, its because the Reds want to tout Bruce Votto Bailey Volquez and Cueto all in the majors. The fearsome three righties in the rotation.

Maloney has clearly earned the nod if its between thompson Bailey and him. In may he has 4-1 2.56 era in 38 and 2/3 innings. He has given up ONE HR, struck out 30, and only walked 11.

He has to be the guy... plus he's a nice change of pace in the rotation... a lefty, not a extremely hard thrower but good sinking stuff.

I just don't think Homer has earned this promotion. I dont buy this challenge him BS... we are rewarding him for being immature.

Cedric
06-01-2008, 11:32 PM
The point is to win. Why risk someone on the 40 man roster when Homer Bailey is right there? Homer has pitched in the majors before and has pitched well before. I think he gives us the best chance to win Thursday and he doesn't force any other moves.

Cedric
06-01-2008, 11:33 PM
If Homer Bailey is the choice, it is a clear sign that this team is playing into our emotions.

If he is brought up, its because the Reds want to tout Bruce Votto Bailey Volquez and Cueto all in the majors. The fearsome three righties in the rotation.

Maloney has clearly earned the nod if its between thompson Bailey and him. In may he has 4-1 2.56 era in 38 and 2/3 innings. He has given up ONE HR, struck out 30, and only walked 11.

He has to be the guy... plus he's a nice change of pace in the rotation... a lefty, not a extremely hard thrower but good sinking stuff.

I just don't think Homer has earned this promotion. I dont buy this challenge him BS... we are rewarding him for being immature.

Ok Hal. He doesn't seem that immature to me. He's just the next Cincinnati whipping boy. God forbid someone doesn't come up and Jay Bruce the league.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:37 PM
If Homer Bailey is the choice, it is a clear sign that this team is playing into our emotions.

If he is brought up, its because the Reds want to tout Bruce Votto Bailey Volquez and Cueto all in the majors. The fearsome three righties in the rotation.

Maloney has clearly earned the nod if its between thompson Bailey and him. In may he has 4-1 2.56 era in 38 and 2/3 innings. He has given up ONE HR, struck out 30, and only walked 11.

He has to be the guy... plus he's a nice change of pace in the rotation... a lefty, not a extremely hard thrower but good sinking stuff.

I just don't think Homer has earned this promotion. I dont buy this challenge him BS... we are rewarding him for being immature.

I think we fans place way more emphasis on the meaning of things sometimes.... this seems to be a spot start (maybe it turns into a longer gig maybe not but it certainly buys the FO more time to carefully consider things).... while every inning is obviously a gift, really, is there a reason to beat your chest about it if you've once been considered the best pitching prospect in the game and now you're riding the Louisville shuttle?

reds44
06-01-2008, 11:37 PM
Ok Hal. He doesn't seem that immature to me. He's just the next Cincinnati whipping boy. God forbid someone doesn't come up and Jay Bruce the league.
See also: Encarnacion, Edwin

who Cincinnati has been trying to replace since he came up.

PuffyPig
06-01-2008, 11:37 PM
If you're looking at ERA as a determiner.

He had a good game today. Something to build on. But I think it's better to be cautious when developing a kid of Cueto's pedigree.


Well, his FIP is about a run lower than his ERA, so he's actually pitching much better.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 11:38 PM
This all assumes that Hal's report is correct, but, you torch a warm body (who despite not being in the major league plans is still performing a role in your system) in exchange for 5 innings when there is a better option ( I guess some could argue otherwise but certainly no one could argue Maloney is a sure bet to be better than Homer)?

I think Maloney should be given more than 5 innings. I'd like to see him get 4-5 starts. Dickerson is batting .238 in AAA. He plays good defense, but it's clear he's not going to be a major league hitter. I just don't believe he has much value to this club. Anderson is batting the same (.238) and is about to turn 27 years old. I don't see either of these 2 as warm bodies that will contribute to this team. There are plenty more Buck Coats type players the Reds can pickup if they're in a pinch. Are either of those 2 players important enough to the Reds to hold Maloney back, if that is the reasoning?

You are right, though. This report from Hal is unconfirmed and until it's been announced definitively, I guess it's somewhat moot.

oregonred
06-01-2008, 11:40 PM
I guess I don't mind that much, but if he bombs then I think it's fair to say his trade value will be almost nil. Or at least the lowest it's been since being drafted.

Nil -- seriously? Well I'm really glad you are not the GM. Compare the following two guys MLB history coming into 2008

Pitcher A:

21 years old 45.1 IP, 43H, 32 R, 29 ER, 3 HR, 28BB, 28BB, 5.76 ERA

Pitcher B:

22-24 yrs old 67.1 IP, 80H, 46R, 44ER, 11HR, 32BB, 44K, 5.88 ERA

24-year old Pitcher B, despite failing in his two big league stints, still netted Josh Hamilton in the offseason and is now leading the NL in ERA and K's... :eek:

There isn't a GM who wouldn't want Bailey and be willing to give up a decent return. Someone may try to buy low with Bailey, but guys with his stuff that are close to big league ready are still few and far between. With Cueto/Bruce off the table, any major trade discussion with the Reds involving a top shelf prospect will now center 100% around Bailey.

1-2 starts with Homer will do little to impact his current trade value and with a couple of decent outings his stock goes right back to where it was mid-2007.

fearofpopvol1
06-01-2008, 11:42 PM
Nil -- seriously? Well I'm really glad you are not the GM. Compare the following two guys MLB history coming into 2008

Pitcher A:

21 years old 45.1 IP, 43H, 32 R, 29 ER, 3 HR, 28BB, 28BB, 5.76 ERA

Pitcher B:

22-24 yrs old 67.1 IP, 80H, 46R, 44ER, 11HR, 32BB, 44K, 5.88 ERA

24-year old Pitcher B, despite failing in his two big league stints, still netted Josh Hamilton in the offseason and is now leading the NL in ERA and K's... :eek:

There isn't a GM who wouldn't want Bailey and be willing to give up a decent return. Someone may try to buy low with Bailey, but guys with his stuff that are close to big league ready are still few and far between. With Cueto/Bruce off the table, any major trade discussion with the Reds involving a top shelf prospect will now center 100% around Bailey.

1-2 starts with Homer will do little to impact his current trade value and with a couple of decent outings his stock goes right back to where it was mid-2007.

In all fairness, Bailey doesn't even sniff the changeup Volquez has. It's literally one of the best in the game right now. His fastball has a little more zip on it as well.

jojo
06-01-2008, 11:45 PM
Nil -- seriously? Well I'm really glad you are not the GM. Compare the following two guys MLB history coming into 2008

Pitcher A:

21 years old 45.1 IP, 43H, 32 R, 29 ER, 3 HR, 28BB, 28BB, 5.76 ERA

Pitcher B:

22-24 yrs old 67.1 IP, 80H, 46R, 44ER, 11HR, 32BB, 44K, 5.88 ERA

24-year old Pitcher B, despite failing in his two big league stints, still netted Josh Hamilton in the offseason and is now leading the NL in ERA and K's... :eek:

There isn't a GM who wouldn't want Bailey and be willing to give up a decent return. Someone may try to buy low with Bailey, but guys with his stuff that are close to big league ready are still few and far between. With Cueto/Bruce off the table, any major trade discussion with the Reds involving a top shelf prospect will now center 100% around Bailey.

1-2 starts with Homer will do little to impact his current trade value and with a couple of decent outings his stock goes right back to where it was mid-2007.

Yep.

On the subject of trade value, what might 4-5 starts from a guy who has consistently outperformed his stuff in the minors do to his value? :cool:

Anyway, my thoughts on Maloney have been blabbed multiple times now. He's going to get his chance to give the naysayers the finger sooner or later.

membengal
06-01-2008, 11:46 PM
Quick question:

I see people throughout this and other threads talking about this as a spot start. Unless the Reds are about to make a deal to fill the spot left vacant by Fogg/Belisle, why is the thought that this is a one-time thing with Bailey? Seems to me there is a gaping "help wanted" sign for the 5th spot in this rotation (still). Who are people thinking will be filling in if Bailey pitches once and goes back to the minors?

What am I missing here?

oregonred
06-01-2008, 11:48 PM
In all fairness, Bailey doesn't even sniff the changeup Volquez has. It's literally one of the best in the game right now. His fastball has a little more zip on it as well.


Homer's also three years younger too. Most forget he just turned 22 yrs old and despite all the handringing, he's still a top-5 pitching prospect.

Let him learn from Harang/Arroyo how to pitch and from some young competition in Volquez/Cueto. Unlike 2007 he won't need to be the Savior, but the 5th guy.

It might be the worst idea ever, then again things might actually start to click together nicely.

REDREAD
06-01-2008, 11:56 PM
You have wonder what Maloney is thinking. What else can the guy do to get his shot?

He's not on the 40 man roster. That's why he's not going to be called up until all other options are exhausted. That's just the way the system works..

Falls City Beer
06-02-2008, 12:02 AM
Nil -- seriously? Well I'm really glad you are not the GM. Compare the following two guys MLB history coming into 2008

Pitcher A:

21 years old 45.1 IP, 43H, 32 R, 29 ER, 3 HR, 28BB, 28BB, 5.76 ERA

Pitcher B:

22-24 yrs old 67.1 IP, 80H, 46R, 44ER, 11HR, 32BB, 44K, 5.88 ERA

24-year old Pitcher B, despite failing in his two big league stints, still netted Josh Hamilton in the offseason and is now leading the NL in ERA and K's... :eek:

There isn't a GM who wouldn't want Bailey and be willing to give up a decent return. Someone may try to buy low with Bailey, but guys with his stuff that are close to big league ready are still few and far between. With Cueto/Bruce off the table, any major trade discussion with the Reds involving a top shelf prospect will now center 100% around Bailey.

1-2 starts with Homer will do little to impact his current trade value and with a couple of decent outings his stock goes right back to where it was mid-2007.

He's gone from "can't miss" to "knucklehead." I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would still deal for him, but if you can't see the depreciation in Homer's value, you've just not been following MLB the last couple of years.

oregonred
06-02-2008, 12:07 AM
He's gone from "can't miss" to "knucklehead." I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would still deal for him, but if you can't see the depreciation in Homer's value, you've just not been following MLB the last couple of years.

It's a bit lower then mid-2007, but my reference was specific to your "nil" comment.

We've also got another parallel thread where Aronchis is now claiming that Maloney would have more trade value at the present time :eek:

jojo
06-02-2008, 12:08 AM
You have wonder what Maloney is thinking.

I'll give this a shot....

"Thank God I don't have to face the Phillies (Phils vs lefties: .260/.341/.506 OPS: .847; OPS+: 125) in that band box they call home for my major league debut!"?????????????????????


:cool:

Cedric
06-02-2008, 12:09 AM
He's gone from "can't miss" to "knucklehead." I'm sure there are plenty of folks who would still deal for him, but if you can't see the depreciation in Homer's value, you've just not been following MLB the last couple of years.

He was never "can't miss" with his control problems. I guarantee the hype of Volquez and Cueto to some extent have helped keep the value of Bailey up. The success of our young talent has a trickle down effect on everyone else in our system. I've already read many stories about all of the Reds young talent and Homer is usually mentioned. Most other teams haven't downgraded Homer because of the intense microscope he is under in Cincinnati, IMO.

oregonred
06-02-2008, 12:11 AM
He was never "can't miss" with his control problems. I guarantee the hype of Volquez and Cueto to some extent have helped keep the value of Bailey up. The success of our young talent has a trickle down effect on everyone else in our system. I've already read many stories about all of the Reds young talent and Homer is usually mentioned. Most other teams haven't downgraded Homer because of the intense microscope he is under in Cincinnati, IMO.

Well stated

Cyclone792
06-02-2008, 12:25 AM
Part of me thinks this is a dumb move, and part of me is rather indifferent.

I've been wanting to see Bailey's AAA walk rate dip below 3.50 per nine innings before calling him up. Instead he's sitting at the 4.02 mark and still walking too many hitters. In fact, Bailey's AAA walk rate is 4.15 over his 136.2 career AAA innings. That just isn't going to get it done. Bailey will succeed as much as his command allows him. If his command is on, he can shut a lineup down. If his command is off - either too much strike zone or not enough strike zone - he's likely to get lit up quite a bit. And unfortunately his command is off far more than it's on.

The indifferent part of me knows that at least Bailey is going to be the 5th starter, and I'm resigned to the fact that the 5th starter is likely going to stink. Whether it's Fogg's stench, Belisle's stench, or Bailey's stench ... at least it's the last slot in the rotation.

Want to be sick? Check out Belisle and Fogg's combined numbers as 5th starters:

10 games started
44 innings
10 home runs (2.05 HR/9)
23 strikeouts (4.70 K/9)
13 walks (2.66 BB/9, the lone positive contribution)
1.77 K/BB
46 earned runs
ERA: 9.41
FIP: 6.00

So I guess if Bailey can toss up an FIP better than 6.00, then the promotion will have a positive impact on the club. There's nothing like high standards, that's for sure.

Blitz Dorsey
06-02-2008, 12:37 AM
Why would anyone fret about Bailey being brought up to start a game (and maybe more) as the No. 5 man in the rotation? Thus far this season, the Reds' fifth starter has been a combination of Matt Belisle/Josh Fogg. Here's to thinking Bailey can't be any worse than that tandem and could be a hell of a lot better. For all of his faults, he is still a very young pitcher with a lot of talent and potential.

Even when he "struggled big time" as a 21-year-old rookie last year with the Reds in nine starts, Bailey was 4-2 with a 6.99 ERA. That is not good, but it's still better than what the Reds have been receiving thus far from their No. 5 starters. I like this move. And if Bailey fails, then it's Maloney's turn. But I'm glad Homer is going to be given a chance to show what he can do.

toledodan
06-02-2008, 12:54 AM
Why would anyone fret about Bailey being brought up to start a game (and maybe more) as the No. 5 man in the rotation? Thus far this season, the Reds' fifth starter has been a combination of Matt Belisle/Josh Fogg. Here's to thinking Bailey can't be any worse than that tandem and could be a hell of a lot better. For all of his faults, he is still a very young pitcher with a lot of talent and potential.

Even when he "struggled big time" as a 21-year-old rookie last year with the Reds in nine starts, Bailey was 4-2 with a 6.99 ERA. That is not good, but it's still better than what the Reds have been receiving thus far from their No. 5 starters. I like this move. And if Bailey fails, then it's Maloney's turn. But I'm glad Homer is going to be given a chance to show what he can do.


i agree. a shot back in the majors may be what he needs to get his head on straight. he's 21 and will give us better numbers than fogg or belise. if homer doesn't get the job done than you move on. maloney will get his turn in time. homer has showed some success like the game in oakland last season. i like the move even if it turns out wrong.

CougarQuest
06-02-2008, 12:54 AM
Playing a lil devils advocate here....

I haven't watched him pitch in AAA this year, and haven't been able to follow AAA this year. Just wondering if .... perhaps... Bailey has been pitching what pitches and the way they want him too, instead of his bread and butter pitch? Anyone know? Perhaps that could explain why his numbers are down this past month and why he was choosen over other options (beyond being already on the 40).

Any chance that Bailey is being traded? I didn't see anything in Baker's statement that said Bailey was coming up or insinuating (coyly or otherwise) that he was coming up. Baker was only quoted as saying about the next start, "“Scuffling, We’ll come up with something. We have a few days before we have to come up with something. There are a couple of guys lined up." I'm not trying to say McCoy doesn't know what he is talking about. But the conversation quoted doesn't give any indication.

Is everyone assuming that Majewski is gonna go back down if/when Bailey or whomever comes up? Cuz Weathers drives my Dad absolutely nuts. Everytime Weathers comes in to pitch, I get to hear, "If the Reds are up 2 runs or less, he'll give up AT least one run".

VR
06-02-2008, 01:08 AM
Playing a lil devils advocate here....

I haven't watched him pitch in AAA this year, and haven't been able to follow AAA this year. Just wondering if .... perhaps... Bailey has been pitching what pitches and the way they want him too, instead of his bread and butter pitch? Anyone know? Perhaps that could explain why his numbers are down this past month and why he was choosen over other options (beyond being already on the 40).

Any chance that Bailey is being traded? I didn't see anything in Baker's statement that said Bailey was coming up or insinuating (coyly or otherwise) that he was coming up. Baker was only quoted as saying about the next start, "“Scuffling, We’ll come up with something. We have a few days before we have to come up with something. There are a couple of guys lined up." I'm not trying to say McCoy doesn't know what he is talking about. But the conversation quoted doesn't give any indication.

Is everyone assuming that Majewski is gonna go back down if/when Bailey or whomever comes up? Cuz Weathers drives my Dad absolutely nuts. Everytime Weathers comes in to pitch, I get to hear, "If the Reds are up 2 runs or less, he'll give up AT least one run".


"CQ in the house"

Good to see you around :beerme:

CougarQuest
06-02-2008, 01:19 AM
"CQ in the house"

Good to see you around :beerme:


:beerme:

vaticanplum
06-02-2008, 01:27 AM
To a degree, potential + dead weight on this team = nothing to lose. I agree with CE in the sense of why the heck not? What are they waiting for? This is a kid who has real pitching talent, and we can talk about his head problems or his mechanics all we want (and I am one for coddling minor league pitchers to a degree, really), but whether he's been pitching well or poorly in Louisville or not, what difference does it make? He's already pitched in the show; arbitration is not an issue. It's early June and this team isn't in contention right now. He's healthy right now. Throw him out there and see what happens. Then go from there. I for one think Homer's head problems are overplayed, but you know what, don't play them at all. If he can't handle it he won't handle it and at this age he does still have trade value. Take a risk, see what happens. I don't see many better options here.

Maybe that's dismissive but this team seems to consider every possibility in everything and it hasn't helped them so far. A huge part of me just thinks it's time for them to walk the plank.

Mario-Rijo
06-02-2008, 01:49 AM
To a degree, potential + dead weight on this team = nothing to lose. I agree with CE in the sense of why the heck not? What are they waiting for? This is a kid who has real pitching talent, and we can talk about his head problems or his mechanics all we want (and I am one for coddling minor league pitchers to a degree, really), but whether he's been pitching well or poorly in Louisville or not, what difference does it make? He's already pitched in the show; arbitration is not an issue. It's early June and this team isn't in contention right now. He's healthy right now. Throw him out there and see what happens. Then go from there. I for one think Homer's head problems are overplayed, but you know what, don't play them at all. If he can't handle it he won't handle it and at this age he does still have trade value. Take a risk, see what happens. I don't see many better options here.

Maybe that's dismissive but this team seems to consider every possibility in everything and it hasn't helped them so far. A huge part of me just thinks it's time for them to walk the plank.

Absolutely, and the bolded is the key point. No one is a lead pipe cinch so why not Homer, and why not now?!

Well said VP!

M2
06-02-2008, 01:58 AM
The point is to win. Why risk someone on the 40 man roster when Homer Bailey is right there? Homer has pitched in the majors before and has pitched well before. I think he gives us the best chance to win Thursday and he doesn't force any other moves.

Drew Anderson could leave tomorrow and no one would shed a tear, not even Drew Anderson (who'd go on to be organizational filler somewhere else). I see no reason why that move should preclude anything else.

Granted, the Reds don't have good options in this case, but this strikes me as a checkers move in a chess game. There are bigger concerns here. Bailey's immature. That's not an insult, it's a statement of fact. He doesn't have the body, the stuff or the mental approach of a major league pitcher ... and that makes him like pretty much every other 22-year-old on the planet. I believe in man management and this is the one kid in the system who least needs to be fed to the wolves on Thursday.

Ask yourself what could go wrong beyond just losing the game.

Who's the pitcher most likely to try too hard and hurt himself in this situation? I say Bailey.

Who's the pitcher most likely to carry around a major league beating like an 800-lb. gorilla on his back? I say Bailey.

Who's the pitcher the team most needs to protect in terms of market value? I say Bailey.

Much as it stuns me to say this, I really wish the club had waited another week to sell Tom Shearn to Korea. As it stands, I'd see if Adam Pettyjohn could summon some magic for his first big league start in seven years. He's an older guy who might channel the adrenaline in a positive fashion. The Reds are looking for a professional opponent to start this game. Any of the AAA options has an exceedingly low chance of winning to the point where I don't think anyone can claim there is a "best" option. For this particular game, you're as likely to pick a winner using astrology as you are scouting and logic. Starting Bailey strikes me as a potential strategic blunder that nets you no tactical gain.

Team Clark
06-02-2008, 02:24 AM
I'm with you....look at the life this team all of a sudden has with some youth.

I like it.

Have to agree. Homer has already pitched in the bigs and has shown that he is indeed human in AAA this year. Pull him up and let him pitch. Granted there are a few other viable options but I like the youth trend.

AmarilloRed
06-02-2008, 02:37 AM
Got this from the Bats website:


Bats starter Homer Bailey was lifted after 2.2 innings pitched as he was called up to join the Cincinnati Reds. Bailey will be making his season debut with the Reds on Thursday at Philadelphia. Last season Bailey was 4-2 with a 5.76 era with the Reds.

http://louisville.bats.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080601&content_id=407180&vkey=news_t416&fext=.jsp&sid=t416

This would seem confirmation of what Hal has suggested.

Caveat Emperor
06-02-2008, 03:01 AM
Ask yourself what could go wrong beyond just losing the game.

Who's the pitcher most likely to try too hard and hurt himself in this situation? I say Bailey.

Who's the pitcher most likely to carry around a major league beating like an 800-lb. gorilla on his back? I say Bailey.

Who's the pitcher the team most needs to protect in terms of market value? I say Bailey.

OTOH -- the longer Bailey sits stewing in his own frustration at Louisville, the more likely it is he'll start trying to throw too hard (in an effort to impress) and the same outcome would be reached. You can play this game all day -- there are plenty of pitfalls a young pitcher can have, and pitching in the bigs on an "audition" start is one of many.

The 800lb gorilla comment is a bit of a nonstarter with me. If Bailey is so emotionally fragile that he could be wrecked by a bad start, he's not worthy of his hype nor of any additional resource investment by the franchise.

Your last point is a good one, but I think Bailey is going to reach a crossroads in his value very soon (if he isn't already there) where the question marks start outnumbering the exclamation points. FWIW, it's almost the exact same position that Edinson Volquez was at when the Reds sent Hamilton to Texas in order to pry him -- Top prospect, top talent, concerns abounding about whether he would put it all together.

Bailey's value is low right now -- its telling that every club in the winter was after Bruce and Cueto (by all accounts) with very little people calling after Bailey. I'm speculating, which is always dangerous, but I imagine the reason why Erik Bedard and Danny Haren aren't wearing the Wishbone-C is because the deals being offered by the Reds involved Homer Bailey instead of one of the other two names.

In order for Bailey's value to rebound, he has to start succeeding somewhere. Worst case scenario here is that Bailey gets shelled and goes back to Louisville -- but the good news is that everyone seems to be expecting that, so it'd be hard to term that failure a 'shocking development.' At Louisville, he again has an opportunity to work and start succeeding to rebuild his trade value. Best case scenario is that Bailey comes up, pitches competently and continues developing in the majors, helping the ballclub as he helps his own value.

PuffyPig
06-02-2008, 09:27 AM
In all fairness, Bailey doesn't even sniff the changeup Volquez has. It's literally one of the best in the game right now. His fastball has a little more zip on it as well.

Good point.

Two years ago, Volquez didn't sniff the change up he has now, which is why (two years ago) he was scuffling.

Bailey is young, he has all the ability to improve and progress as guys his age usually do.

Cyclone792
06-02-2008, 09:29 AM
I'll be interested to see who goes down Thursday to make room for Bailey's slot on the roster. One has to wonder if Majewski is here for some "just in case" bullpen depth over the next few days and is earmarked back for Louisville, or if the Reds are planning on making a different move.

lollipopcurve
06-02-2008, 10:16 AM
Hard to know what to make of Bailey this year -- on the one hand, we heard effusive praise from Ross and Chad Moeller about Bailey being the best they'd ever seen him. There was talk about him relying more on his fastball then. After that, he's been decidedly pedestrian. Personally, I would be surprised if he makes it through 5 innings in Philly. Whether they keep him around longer may give us a clue as to what we should believe -- were Ross and Moeller really seeing something, or not?

REDREAD
06-02-2008, 10:43 AM
Ask yourself what could go wrong beyond just losing the game.

Who's the pitcher most likely to try too hard and hurt himself in this situation? I say Bailey.

Who's the pitcher most likely to carry around a major league beating like an 800-lb. gorilla on his back? I say Bailey.
.

Upon further reflection, I think I have to agree with you. I think it was a huge mistake to call up Homer last season. I think this will compound the mistake.

Apparently Homer has an attitude problem (a little bit) and thinks he's too good for AAA.. Now, you call him up and regardless of how he does, he's going to be peeved off when sent back down again.. If he gets smacked around, he'll complain that he only got 2-3 starts. If he does well, then he compains he gets screwed over if he's sent back down.

Is this the message we want to send to Homer: "We sent you to AAA because we wanted to keep Fogg?" Because that's how he's going to see it. He gets the callup despite having a not so good May.

IMO, this is the exact reason why I didn't mind Wayne signing guys like Fogg, Mercker, and Affedlt. There's very little depth in the organization. I mean, an injury to Fogg is forcing our had here a bit and making us call up Homer.

I don't really think calling up Malony is a good idea either, but we are kind of trapped here.

I guess if I was GM, I'd call Belisle back up, if the rules allowed me to. I know there's some kind of rule that a player has to stay in AAA for awhile after being sent down. I don't know if replacing an injured player is a loophole or not.

Heck, I'd be tempted to call up some AAA scrub like Shearn or some other nonprospect just to protect Homer's development plan.

Raisor
06-02-2008, 11:01 AM
I'll be interested to see who goes down Thursday to make room for Bailey's slot on the roster. One has to wonder if Majewski is here for some "just in case" bullpen depth over the next few days and is earmarked back for Louisville, or if the Reds are planning on making a different move.

Something I've always wondered.

Just as an example, I'll use Homer and Majewski.

Why don't teams do this: Both guys travel with the team. When Homer (or whomever the 5th starter is, assuming he has options that year) starts, you send down the extra reliever (Majewski), after the game, you send Homer back down (though he stays with the bigclub, and you recall the extra reliever).

Seems like a good way to carry a 26 man roster..

Edit: And then I remember WHY you can't do this. You have to spend a certain amount of time off the roster if you're sent to the minors.

NEVERMIND

redsmetz
06-02-2008, 11:17 AM
Upon further reflection, I think I have to agree with you. I think it was a huge mistake to call up Homer last season. I think this will compound the mistake.

Apparently Homer has an attitude problem (a little bit) and thinks he's too good for AAA.. Now, you call him up and regardless of how he does, he's going to be peeved off when sent back down again.. If he gets smacked around, he'll complain that he only got 2-3 starts. If he does well, then he compains he gets screwed over if he's sent back down.

Is this the message we want to send to Homer: "We sent you to AAA because we wanted to keep Fogg?" Because that's how he's going to see it. He gets the callup despite having a not so good May.

IMO, this is the exact reason why I didn't mind Wayne signing guys like Fogg, Mercker, and Affedlt. There's very little depth in the organization. I mean, an injury to Fogg is forcing our had here a bit and making us call up Homer.

I don't really think calling up Malony is a good idea either, but we are kind of trapped here.

I guess if I was GM, I'd call Belisle back up, if the rules allowed me to. I know there's some kind of rule that a player has to stay in AAA for awhile after being sent down. I don't know if replacing an injured player is a loophole or not.

Heck, I'd be tempted to call up some AAA scrub like Shearn or some other nonprospect just to protect Homer's development plan.

First, yes, replacing a player going on the DL circumvents the 10 day rule. I recall we did that with someone last year; recalled a guy a day after they'd been sent down.

Second, I'm not buying the ongoing belief that Bailey's a malcontent down in Louisville. The word on him last year was that he wasn't tremendous teachable, but a number of folks have commented that he's showing increasing maturity. The excerpt in today's Enquirer from the Courier Journal seems to confirm this and puts the lie to the conventional wisdom that he's discontented.


"I didn't expect anything, didn't want to know anything as far as what they're thinking up there," Bailey said. "I just kind of let things unfold however they do."

(Bats Manager Rick) Sweet said Bailey is better prepared for the majors now.

"Mentally, I think he's much more mature than the first time I sent him up," Sweet said. "He's got a better idea of what he's got to do."

I agree with those who continue to correctly note that Bailey is young and it's way too early to write him off. But I think it's time to sink or swim with these young guys. Let them take their knocks and and allow them to develop fully in to Big League pitchers.

SMcGavin
06-02-2008, 11:30 AM
I think either Bailey or Maloney is likely to get hit hard in Philly on Thursday. But if you are going to choose between the two I would go with the guy who has a better ERA, better K rate, better BB rate, and better HR rate. That's Maloney. Maloney's FIP is 2.72, Bailey's is 4.10. They've both been in the same AAA rotation all year, and Maloney has performed head and shoulders better than Bailey. Whatever you think of Maloney's long-term chances of being good in the majors, I don't see how he's less prepared than Bailey to pitch well Thursday. And as was said earlier in the thread losing Drew Anderson should not play a role in any decision making.

By the way in May, Homer Bailey has 23 K and 22 BB. Yippee.

REDREAD
06-02-2008, 11:47 AM
First, yes, replacing a player going on the DL circumvents the 10 day rule. I recall we did that with someone last year; recalled a guy a day after they'd been sent down.

Thanks for confirming that.



Second, I'm not buying the ongoing belief that Bailey's a malcontent down in Louisville. The word on him last year was that he wasn't tremendous teachable, but a number of folks have commented that he's showing increasing maturity. The excerpt in today's Enquirer from the Courier Journal seems to confirm this and puts the lie to the conventional wisdom that he's discontented.


That's a fair point. I think I used the word malcontent (or whatever word I used) unfairly. The bottom line is that he was disappointed that he didn't make the club out of spring training. If he wasn't disappointed, then there's something wrong with him. But I question this callup because the Reds apparently gave him a development plan. Based on his May performance, it doesn't seem that he's quite there. The guy is only 21 or so now.. he's very young. I'm not sure calling him up to fill Fogg's spot sends the right message.
The last thing you want to do is plant the seed in his head that he's not in control of his own destiny, and the Reds will call him up based on roster manuevering instead of based on merit. That can plant the seeds of discontent.. Not a slam on Homer, that's just human nature. In other words, we don't want Homer to feel he's been jerked around.





I agree with those who continue to correctly note that Bailey is young and it's way too early to write him off. But I think it's time to sink or swim with these young guys. Let them take their knocks and and allow them to develop fully in to Big League pitchers.

I don't know though. It seems like Bailey can clearly benefit from a full year at AAA. Bruce broke down the door to get to the bigs. I don't think Homer has done that yet. The question is whether it's best long term to leave Homer in AAA or bring him up. I tend to agree with M2 that the conservative choice (leave him in AAA) would be more prudent.

TRF
06-02-2008, 11:59 AM
I honestly couldn't care less about Bailey's development. I don't think much of his ceiling (as opposed to the limitless ceiling of Cueto's), so his getting shellshocked doesn't bother me.

What could bother me, however, is if the Reds consider him a viable option for the 5th slot. If it's for one start, fine. If they keep running him out there, good or bad, then I'll be angry.

(On the other hand, I can hardly blame the FO for throwing crap at the wall and hoping it'll stick; the former GM tied their hands depth-wise).

Didn't the former GM bring the current best starter in the NL to the Reds? Didn't he acquire Maloney as well? And Thompson? (still loathe "The Trade" though). Didn't he get Herrera as well for the 'pen?

How is this hand tying?

Tony Cloninger
06-02-2008, 12:16 PM
I guess most people have already determined that Bailey is going to fail....badly....and they already have the excuses lined up. Will make for a great Game Thread. Quotes like "I saw that coming".."What did you expect"..."Walt blew it" will abound.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 12:22 PM
I love giving up on 21 year old prospects with the ability of a Homer Bailey.

membengal
06-02-2008, 12:28 PM
I don't see where most here are "giving up on him". That seems a strawman to me. I certainly am not "giving up on him". I just would rather he continue to work on matters at AAA until his Ks per 9 go back up. Right now, they are not where I would have wanted them. Full disclosure, as many will remember, I wanted him up last year. Course, last year his K per 9 was much better, giving me hope that he could translate success to the bigs. And he did, on occasion, have success. I am just not certain that Bailey is ready, at this juncture in 2008, to help the team as much as he might a little further down the road. We shall see.

Maloney's Ks per 9 have been closer to what I would want to see prior to a call-up. I would have given Maloney this shot. That's not giving up on Bailey, nor is that me predicting wonderful things for Maloney.

Regardless, I will be listening with even more intense interest than usual on Thursday, and rooting like hades for Bailey to be good.

REDREAD
06-02-2008, 12:33 PM
Didn't the former GM bring the current best starter in the NL to the Reds? Didn't he acquire Maloney as well? And Thompson? (still loathe "The Trade" though). Didn't he get Herrera as well for the 'pen?

How is this hand tying?


Wayne made some good moves..The rest of the roster is a mess.. No depth.

The best example of hand tying though is the Dunn and Jr situation.
Jr is not Wayne's fault, but why give Dunn a no trade clause? The problem with that is it seems that no one on the Reds knew if Dunn was part of the long term or not. That decision should've been made last year and then Dunn could've either been extended or dealt.

Now Walt has to deal with 2 corner OF with no trade clauses. He is pretty much forced to wait until the offseason to deal with it.

Walt has also been saddled with some bad contracts that he inherited from Wayne. Some have been deposed of or sent to AAA, but some limit what Walt can do.

RedsManRick
06-02-2008, 12:33 PM
I love giving up on 21 year old prospects with the ability of a Homer Bailey.

Don't confuse with "not ready now" with "giving up on". I think Homer Bailey will be at least a decent major league pitcher, probably within the next two years. However, that hardly makes him the best candidate for starting on Thursday.

The last month in AAA he's walked as many as he struck out. As you point out, he's still very young. I'm not sure putting him in a tough spot for even a proven major league veteran is the best thing for his ongoing development nor for the Reds chances of winning the game.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 12:34 PM
Since nobody has stuck in the 5 spot...I could see Maloney getting a shot if Bailey stinks it up, even Thompson at some point....may as well try out the young guys instead of running out yet another retread.

Have to start somewhere, I guess they figure Bailey's a good starting point, since he's on the 40 man, and does have a little bit of big league experience.

Ready or not...here he comes! I'd rather see this than another outing by Belisle or Fogg.

OnBaseMachine
06-02-2008, 12:35 PM
Here comes Homer
Bailey told he'll start vs. Phillies on Thursday
BY C.L. BROWN | THE (LOUISVILLE) COURIER-JOURNAL

Homer Bailey came out of Louisville's game in the third inning Sunday so he'll be ready to pitch for the Reds Thursday, replacing Josh Fogg in the rotation.

"I didn't see (Justin) Mallet warming up, I didn't see anything and (Bats manager Rick Sweet) starts walking out there - I was actually a little mad," Bailey said. "... He said, 'Don't worry about it, you're throwing Thursday in Philadelphia.' "

Bailey allowed two runs in 22/3 innings Sunday night. Overall he went 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 games.T

Bailey was 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA for the Reds last season. He was the organization's top-rated prospect for three straight seasons.

"I didn't expect anything, didn't want to know anything as far as what they're thinking up there," Bailey said. "I just kind of let things unfold however they do."

Sweet said Bailey is better prepared for the majors now.

"Mentally, I think he's much more mature than the first time I sent him up," Sweet said. "He's got a better idea of what he's got to do."

Bailey dominated in April, going 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA, but for a three-game stretch he allowed 15 earned runs in 141/3 innings. Bailey felt he "got it back" on May 27 against Columbus, allowing one earned run in six innings.

The Phillies chased Bailey after six runs in 12/3 innings last season. "I know what to expect," he said. "I threw against Philadelphia last time and, although it was my worst one, I know what to expect. Nothing is really going to surprise me."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080602/SPT04/806020382/

SMcGavin
06-02-2008, 12:43 PM
I don't see where most here are "giving up on him". That seems a strawman to me. I certainly am not "giving up on him". I just would rather he continue to work on matters at AAA until his Ks per 9 go back up.

Exactly. The accusation of "giving up" on Homer is a strawman. Most just don't think he's ready right now, which is another thing entirely.

jojo
06-02-2008, 12:46 PM
Since nobody has stuck in the 5 spot...I could see Maloney getting a shot if Bailey stinks it up, even Thompson at some point....may as well try out the young guys instead of running out yet another retread.

Have to start somewhere, I guess they figure Bailey's a good starting point, since he's on the 40 man, and does have a little bit of big league experience.

Ready or not...here he comes! I'd rather see this than another outing by Belisle or Fogg.

And lets not forget he's not lefthanded.....a fact that's not irrelevant against the Phillies.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 12:47 PM
Good point. Maloney being a lefty could give him an edge, at least at some point

bucksfan2
06-02-2008, 12:50 PM
Don't confuse with "not ready now" with "giving up on". I think Homer Bailey will be at least a decent major league pitcher, probably within the next two years. However, that hardly makes him the best candidate for starting on Thursday.

IMO the Reds made the decision a couple of weeks ago that Bailey would be the next starter up if they had to bring someone up from AAA. If Jocketty and Sweet didn't believe that Bailey was ready would they have sold both Lehr and Shearn? Would they also have sent Belisle down to AAA to become a reliever knowing that if a starter went down Bailey was the only starter in Louisville on the 40 man roster?

IMO Bailey is still the best option the reds have. He had some success last season and had 3 rough starts in AAA this year. The 3 starts came back to back so who knows if it could have been a dead arm period, could have been a mechanical issue or could have been a minor physical aliment. Much of Bailey's decline has been predicted by looking at the box score rather than watching his actual games.

This is a good situatin for Bailey to be in. I think he gets atleast 2 starts and then the reds go from there. If he has a tough outing against the Phillies then so be it. There have been a lot of pitchers roughed up by the Phillies. If he struggles in a few outings then he knows what he has to work on. If he has some success then we have hope for Bailey as the season goes along.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 12:54 PM
Some numbers



Bailey W L ERA GS IP H R ER BB SO GO/AO BAA
April 4 2 2.29 6 39.1 30 10 10 9 32 0.76 .213
May 0 2 6.59 5 27.1 33 21 20 20 22 1.50 .303

Maloney W L ERA GS IP H R ER BB SO GO/AO BAA
April 2 1 6.65 5 23 30 17 17 8 24 0.61 .323
May 4 1 2.56 6 38.2 28 11 11 11 30 0.81 .204

M2
06-02-2008, 01:02 PM
Don't confuse with "not ready now" with "giving up on". I think Homer Bailey will be at least a decent major league pitcher, probably within the next two years. However, that hardly makes him the best candidate for starting on Thursday.

The last month in AAA he's walked as many as he struck out. As you point out, he's still very young. I'm not sure putting him in a tough spot for even a proven major league veteran is the best thing for his ongoing development nor for the Reds chances of winning the game.

Excellent points. My only quibble is with the two years estimate. It could be three or four years before he's a decent major league pitcher (might not happen that way, but he's still awfully young). One of the larger picture problems with Bailey has always been that the Reds might decide to look elsewhere for a meal before his bird timer pops.


If Jocketty and Sweet didn't believe that Bailey was ready would they have sold both Lehr and Shearn?

One thing I've learned as a baseball fan over the years is never substitute someone else's judgment for my own. I've seen a lot of GMs and coaches who apparently believed something that seemed screwy from the outside looking in and most every time it indeed turned out to be screwy. Bailey's promotion strikes me as a classic case of an organization wanting a starting pitching prospect to be ready on the team's timetable instead of on the prospect's timetable. Square peg, round hole and the pounding may not be pretty to watch.

RedsManRick
06-02-2008, 01:15 PM
IMO the Reds made the decision a couple of weeks ago that Bailey would be the next starter up if they had to bring someone up from AAA. If Jocketty and Sweet didn't believe that Bailey was ready would they have sold both Lehr and Shearn? Would they also have sent Belisle down to AAA to become a reliever knowing that if a starter went down Bailey was the only starter in Louisville on the 40 man roster?

I don't believe the Reds had a choice in the matter of selling off Lehr and Shearn. They had contract stipulations which stated the Reds had to sell them if an offer was made and the player consented. I



IMO Bailey is still the best option the reds have. He had some success last season and had 3 rough starts in AAA this year. The 3 starts came back to back so who knows if it could have been a dead arm period, could have been a mechanical issue or could have been a minor physical aliment. Much of Bailey's decline has been predicted by looking at the box score rather than watching his actual games.

This is a good situation for Bailey to be in. I think he gets at least 2 starts and then the reds go from there. If he has a tough outing against the Phillies then so be it. There have been a lot of pitchers roughed up by the Phillies. If he struggles in a few outings then he knows what he has to work on. If he has some success then we have hope for Bailey as the season goes along.

I agree to an extent. I don't predict "decline" for Bailey. You're right in so far as I have not seen him pitch this year. But walks are walks; there's no good side to them and no real excuse for a pitcher with his stuff. Whether he has legitimate control problems or is merely nibbling, it's a problem that will be exacerbated in the majors. There is an argument suggesting that Bailey is going to take his lumps at some point. Given the Reds momentum, this could be a chance for Bailey to break in with a little less pressure. It's not likely he'll be any worse than Fogg and Belisle have been. And as you point out, if it works out, there's a pretty big payoff.

My concern is less about Bailey in the abstract. I think there's a good chance he'll respond better to the challenge of the majors. While I am worried about his seemingly stagnant development, I am more worried about what it means for Maloney. If this wasn't the time for him to get a shot, when is? He has clearly outperformed Homer this year, if not by a massive margin.



GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
Bailey 12 69.1 8.57 0.78 4.03 7.14 1.77
Maloney 11 61.2 8.46 0.15 2.77 7.88 2.84

Maloney's opportunity is now predicated on the failure or injury to one of the other 3 young pitchers. At age 24, his value only goes down the longer he spends in AAA. Surely he'll have value for awhile, but this signals to me that he's viewed as trade bait and/or fringe, not a legitimate prospect. I just don't understand what they plan to do with him.

What will be interesting with Bailey is how fans react to him. I think we're going to need to accept that he's not Jay Bruce. I don't think he "loves" baseball in the way fans want their stars to love the game. I think he does it because he's good at it and can make a good deal of money at it, but he'd rather be elsewhere - perhaps a tree stand - and he certainly doesn't want to talk about it. It doesn't make him a bad person, but it does make him a poor candidate for stardom. I can only hope that this situation will let Bailey just go pitch without much spotlight, learn from his mistakes, and develop in to a solid major league starter.

TRF
06-02-2008, 01:21 PM
Wayne made some good moves..The rest of the roster is a mess.. No depth.

The best example of hand tying though is the Dunn and Jr situation.
Jr is not Wayne's fault, but why give Dunn a no trade clause? The problem with that is it seems that no one on the Reds knew if Dunn was part of the long term or not. That decision should've been made last year and then Dunn could've either been extended or dealt.

Now Walt has to deal with 2 corner OF with no trade clauses. He is pretty much forced to wait until the offseason to deal with it.

Walt has also been saddled with some bad contracts that he inherited from Wayne. Some have been deposed of or sent to AAA, but some limit what Walt can do.

Dunn's No-trade is up at the end of this month I believe. He COULD be moved at the deadline. I certainly wouldn't do it though.

The real lack of depth right now is at 3B with Kepp and AGon out. EE is scuffling bad, and that leaves Freel as the backup. Maybe it's me, but I don't see the lack of depth you are talking about.

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 01:22 PM
It's up June 15th and then he can be traded only to certain teams. He either has a list of teams he would accept a trade to or a list of teams that he wouldn't...I don't recall. The Reds have that list though.

Roy Tucker
06-02-2008, 01:42 PM
I just hope all the buzz around Jay Bruce mitigates the pressure put on Bailey as the savior of the franchise.

It was just a year ago when he had his first start and the hullabaloo and buzz was monumental. Hopefully, this time with the game being on the road it and Bruce being the center of attention, it will be more of a normal start.

Plus, I'm just hoping he's better than Fogg and Belisle.

Kc61
06-02-2008, 01:48 PM
Has there been any explanation for Homer's recent outings? Has he been working on certain pitches, has his velocity been good? I hope he comes in and dominates the NL, I've always thought highly of Homer as a draft pick and a potential Red.

Just wonder why his numbers have been off the last several outings, if there is an explanation.

OldXOhio
06-02-2008, 02:21 PM
I just hope all the buzz around Jay Bruce mitigates the pressure put on Bailey as the savior of the franchise.

It was just a year ago when he had his first start and the hullabaloo and buzz was monumental. Hopefully, this time with the game being on the road it and Bruce being the center of attention, it will be more of a normal start.



Things are different now than a year ago - Volquez and Cueto have taken much of the emphasis off HB. If anything, I'm concerned with the pressure from some who think he should be at or near their level.

Spring~Fields
06-02-2008, 02:52 PM
Don't confuse with "not ready now" with "giving up on". I think Homer Bailey will be at least a decent major league pitcher, probably within the next two years. However, that hardly makes him the best candidate for starting on Thursday.

The last month in AAA he's walked as many as he struck out. As you point out, he's still very young. I'm not sure putting him in a tough spot for even a proven major league veteran is the best thing for his ongoing development nor for the Reds chances of winning the game.

What if Bailey comes up to be the fifth starter and he is given the rest of the season to gain experience and to work through his shortcomings and it turns out to be the right thing to enhance Bailey’s development? Why can’t the same theory of growth, development and experience from working through a season at the major league level that is believed to work for one 22 year old in a Cueto not work for the 22 year old Bailey? Of course it is possible that the theory could work for one and not the other, how is it determined until a large enough sampling can be established.

Before yesterdays game I was ready to protect Cueto from any more results like his previous ten starts, and becoming another deer in the headlights chicken-hearted Belisle, after the game I thought that I really blew that one, because Cueto had a really decent outing.

Isn’t that really the way it can be with the young pitchers? Don’t we and the organization have to speculate to some degree from game to game, waiting to see if the enduring of the young pitchers struggles this year will pay dividends next season?


"I didn't see (Justin) Mallet warming up, I didn't see anything and (Bats manager Rick Sweet) starts walking out there - I was actually a little mad," Bailey said. "... He said, 'Don't worry about it, you're throwing Thursday in Philadelphia.' "

"I didn't expect anything, didn't want to know anything as far as what they're thinking up there," Bailey said. "I just kind of let things unfold however they do."

I see this comment as an indicator that something along the way has been said or done to Bailey and that now he is conditioned from that, (we have no indications that the kid is bi-polar etc.) I have no clue what that might have been or done. “Mad” ? Bailey’s immediate reaction was a bit over the top wasn’t it?

I feel comfortable though that Bailey might have been told to do x, he tried x, and perceives that he was ill informed, received a negative labeling from it and that he had negative consequences from it that effected his pitching performance and status with the team. Bailey’s perceptions though appearing to be immature, may be correct, who knows?
Wouldn’t be the first time that he or any of us were told to do x, y, z, and it turned out to be BS, and it wasn’t appreciated one bit.

Now when he reacts he is labeled as a head case with a bad attitude. Perhaps now Bailey is, it came from somewhere, perhaps the major leagues will have a constructive change for Bailey. How much of effective pitching is mental or experience after it is determined that one has the tools or skills?

Volquez has indicated that one of the differences in and for him now is that he doesn’t let his emotions affect him like he did in the past. We have seen the younger Cueto get upset, and we assume that with time Cueto will adjust, perhaps Bailey will also with major league experience grow and develop at the major league level, that intangible something, that Cueto and Bailey can only get at the major league level.

I think that after Bowden, O’Brien and Krivsky conditioning us to wonder who is running the asylum, that we forget that Jocketty has a proven track record that indicates that he really does know what he is doing and that we after so many clowns can actually trust Jocketty. Who knew ?

I just think that if it can work for Cueto, and it appears, if yesterday was an indicator that it is, then it can work for Bailey also. I have watched the bad Bailey pitch on milb 3-4 times and yes he still does that body language of upset on the mound when he is throwing outside and it goes wide for a ball and then he tries to compensate inside and gets high, and then the body language of frustration comes out walking around the mound, head down, shoulders telling a tale and the, you know the rest as you have seen it all before.

I expect to see that at this level, but I want to anticipate that with time he will become a better pitcher and more in control of his emotions and pitches. I expect Bailey to get drilled in Philly, I expected Cueto to get drilled yesterday.

It is sweet to be wrong at times.

I know now that Bailey’s start in Philly doesn’t mean a lot, it is just a beginning, not the ending.

LoganBuck
06-02-2008, 03:09 PM
Depends how he uses "a little mad"

A little mad to me is annoyed.

A little mad to others can be mad.

Volquez was obviously showing frustration against San Diego before Votto's error. Next batter takes him deep. Young pitchers get frustrated. Cueto in his less than desirable starts has showed the same posture.

I was thinking the same thing this morning about Jocketty, SpringfieldFan. Jocketty has experience and knows how to bring pitchers along. He has seen good times and bad. He dealt with the Rick Ankiel fiasco. I have faith in Jocketty.

M2
06-02-2008, 03:19 PM
He dealt with the Rick Ankiel fiasco.

By throwing the kid into the fire and ruining him forever as a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, I think Jocketty did a superior job in St. Louis, but Ankiel was perhaps his lowlight.

Mario-Rijo
06-02-2008, 03:27 PM
By throwing the kid into the fire and ruining him forever as a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, I think Jocketty did a superior job in St. Louis, but Ankiel was perhaps his lowlight.

Reyes didn't work out to well so far either.

Falls City Beer
06-02-2008, 03:40 PM
Reyes didn't work out to well so far either.

Reyes didn't possess the skills. He wasn't prematurely called up. It happens. It's really really tough to pitch in the majors.

bucksfan2
06-02-2008, 03:43 PM
By throwing the kid into the fire and ruining him forever as a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, I think Jocketty did a superior job in St. Louis, but Ankiel was perhaps his lowlight.

How is Jocketty to blame for Ankiel? Is that to say Torre is to blame for Knoblauch's throwing issues? Knoblauch was already a multiple time all star and one of the better 2b when he developed his throwing issues. Sometimes there is just a mental block that a certain player can not overcome. To blame that on anyone else is just plain wrong.

Highlifeman21
06-02-2008, 03:53 PM
I love giving up on 21 year old prospects with the ability of a Homer Bailey.

Ability?

Or potential?

Potential he might have. Ability, not so much at this point of his career.

Hopefully he transforms his potential into actual ability, but he has a ways to go before that happens.

Hopefully Thursday helps, but I'm not holding my breath.

Highlifeman21
06-02-2008, 03:55 PM
Here comes Homer
Bailey told he'll start vs. Phillies on Thursday
BY C.L. BROWN | THE (LOUISVILLE) COURIER-JOURNAL

Homer Bailey came out of Louisville's game in the third inning Sunday so he'll be ready to pitch for the Reds Thursday, replacing Josh Fogg in the rotation.

"I didn't see (Justin) Mallet warming up, I didn't see anything and (Bats manager Rick Sweet) starts walking out there - I was actually a little mad," Bailey said. "... He said, 'Don't worry about it, you're throwing Thursday in Philadelphia.' "

Bailey allowed two runs in 22/3 innings Sunday night. Overall he went 4-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 12 games.T

Bailey was 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA for the Reds last season. He was the organization's top-rated prospect for three straight seasons.

"I didn't expect anything, didn't want to know anything as far as what they're thinking up there," Bailey said. "I just kind of let things unfold however they do."

Sweet said Bailey is better prepared for the majors now.

"Mentally, I think he's much more mature than the first time I sent him up," Sweet said. "He's got a better idea of what he's got to do."

Bailey dominated in April, going 4-2 with a 2.29 ERA, but for a three-game stretch he allowed 15 earned runs in 141/3 innings. Bailey felt he "got it back" on May 27 against Columbus, allowing one earned run in six innings.

The Phillies chased Bailey after six runs in 12/3 innings last season. "I know what to expect," he said. "I threw against Philadelphia last time and, although it was my worst one, I know what to expect. Nothing is really going to surprise me."

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080602/SPT04/806020382/

It's good to see that Rick Sweet knows Homer's still a thrower, and not a pitcher.

Hopefully he's not the only one.

LoganBuck
06-02-2008, 03:55 PM
By throwing the kid into the fire and ruining him forever as a pitcher. Don't get me wrong, I think Jocketty did a superior job in St. Louis, but Ankiel was perhaps his lowlight.

My point in bringing it up is that Walt Jocketty is a smart GM. I am sure he learned a thing or two during that mess. If I remember correctly they sent him to psychologists and other gurus. Jocketty, surely gained some additional insight into handling young pitchers.

Reyes just doesn't have the stuff. Reyes might be why Maloney is sitting in AAA and Homer is getting the call. If Walt needs to go get something in July, having a "major league ready arm" with a record of success makes for tempting trade bait. As a Reds fan over the years you have to appreciate that. From Brandon Claussen, Brian Reith, Rob Bell, Ed Yarnall, Phil Dumatrait etc. Teams in sell mode like to get those types back when they have to set their sights lower.

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2008, 12:45 AM
It's official: Bailey

As expected, the Reds made it official Monday that Homer Bailey will start Thursday against the Phillies, but Cincinnati manager Dusty Baker didn't give him a resounding endorsement.

Asked why it is Bailey, Baker said, "I don't know that it is his time. Sometimes it is just necessity. Sometimes it is who is on the roster or who we can put on the roster. So far, so good in calling up young guys."

Baker said he has received conflicting reports on Bailey's progress.

"Some reports have been excellent and some reports have been similar to what he struggled with before, and that's consistency," said Baker.

"He's still very young, only 22 years old. His college class is just getting drafted in three days, and they're going to 'A' ball at best. So he is four years ahead of his graduating class."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/06/02/ddn060308spredsnotesweb.html

Chip R
06-03-2008, 01:32 PM
Asked why it is Bailey, Baker said, "I don't know that it is his time. Sometimes it is just necessity. Sometimes it is who is on the roster or who we can put on the roster. So far, so good in calling up young guys."



I find this somewhat disconcerting. Dusty wouldn't say a bad word about Hitler if he were on his team but he's not exactly making people looking forward to Homer's return.

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 01:56 PM
I find this somewhat disconcerting. Dusty wouldn't say a bad word about Hitler if he were on his team but he's not exactly making people looking forward to Homer's return.

One could argue he's purposefully minimizing expectations.

M2
06-03-2008, 02:19 PM
One could argue he's purposefully minimizing expectations.

Will they hold a "victory celebration" tonight if they only lose 5-4 again?

And will they also claim that their 17-15 record from the Grapefruit League has not been properly seated? Clearly those were real baseball games. They played them on a baseball field using baseball equipment under MLB rules. Do we dare disenfranchise the fans who came to see those games?

REDREAD
06-03-2008, 04:39 PM
Dunn's No-trade is up at the end of this month I believe. He COULD be moved at the deadline. I certainly wouldn't do it though.


True, but it's a limited no trade that Dunn could use to affectively limit the Reds' options to zero.. I would've liked to see Dunn either extended by now or traded last year.. I guess my point is that the Reds are in a situation now where they HAVE to either give Dunn exactly what he wants, take draft picks, or take a poor return in a trade due to Dunn's limited no trade clause.
Not exactly a great position to be in. The timing of Dunn's contract expiring when the club might want to let Jr go as well isn't so good either. If the Reds don't pick up Jr's option, is Dunn more inclined to walk? Not saying we should sign Jr just to make Dunn happy, but that's probably a factor for Dunn.
Also, Jr is cut loose, it puts even more pressure on the Reds to give Dunn what he wants, to avoid the offense disintegrating..




The real lack of depth right now is at 3B with Kepp and AGon out. EE is scuffling bad, and that leaves Freel as the backup. Maybe it's me, but I don't see the lack of depth you are talking about.

Lack of depth or quality at just about every position other than starting pitching, 2b, 1b, and one OF slot (Bruce). [Considering that Jr and Dunn are likely to be gone and are also practically untradable] Glaring lack of depth in the bullpen.

REDREAD
06-03-2008, 04:45 PM
I find this somewhat disconcerting. Dusty wouldn't say a bad word about Hitler if he were on his team but he's not exactly making people looking forward to Homer's return.

It might be that Dusty honestly doesn't know why Bailey was called up as opposed to someone else...

I find Dusty's honesty and lack of BS refreshing. Past managers were largely just puppets of the GM and would just parrot the company line.

On the radio the other night, Dusty said something like "I don't know how long Homer is going to be up here. I hope he pitches well enough that he never goes back down"..

TRF
06-03-2008, 04:58 PM
Lack of depth or quality at just about every position other than starting pitching, 2b, 1b, and one OF slot (Bruce). [Considering that Jr and Dunn are likely to be gone and are also practically untradable] Glaring lack of depth in the bullpen.

Sorry but this goes to a lack of knowledge of the Reds' ML system. At AA, Sean Henry and Shaun Cumberland have been tearing it up. Valaika is adjusting to AA and starting to hit, .314 over his last 10 games. Dorn has been injured (laceration) but his bat is solid, .321 BA over his last 10 games as well. Frazier is a rising star, and could be in AAA by the start of next year if not sooner. Adam Rosales has been scuffling this year, but he seems to be a guy that takes a little time to adjust to higher levels.

I see depth at 2B, SS and the OF. C and 3B depth is another story. Mesoraco, while hitting very well is only in A ball. He's got a ways to go, but so far, he's been very, very good for his age and level. Rosales is the next in line at 3B behind Freel/Hairston. After that... poof. Valaika maybe?

bucksfan2
06-03-2008, 05:17 PM
Sorry but this goes to a lack of knowledge of the Reds' ML system. At AA, Sean Henry and Shaun Cumberland have been tearing it up. Valaika is adjusting to AA and starting to hit, .314 over his last 10 games. Dorn has been injured (laceration) but his bat is solid, .321 BA over his last 10 games as well. Frazier is a rising star, and could be in AAA by the start of next year if not sooner. Adam Rosales has been scuffling this year, but he seems to be a guy that takes a little time to adjust to higher levels.

I see depth at 2B, SS and the OF. C and 3B depth is another story. Mesoraco, while hitting very well is only in A ball. He's got a ways to go, but so far, he's been very, very good for his age and level. Rosales is the next in line at 3B behind Freel/Hairston. After that... poof. Valaika maybe?

I don't see any depth at SS. From everything I have heard Valakia and Fraizer aren't SS. I really think you have Janish at SS and then maybe a guy like Soto (if he sticks at SS) down in Billings who is next best bet at SS. Guys like Rosales and Cozart seem to be good defensive SS but have a weak stick.

I think OF the reds have a pretty good deal of depth. Add Valakia, Frazier, Stubbs, and Cumberland you have some hope. Also a guy like Dickerson wouldn't be a bad guy to have up as a defensive replacement late in innings.

I don't think much of the catcher depth. Mesorasco is a talent but he is probably 3 years away from the majors if every thing goes right. If the reds don't make a trade for a catcher I think we will be saddled with replacement level catchers for the next few years (not that that is a bad thing).

TRF
06-03-2008, 05:49 PM
I think SS had depth, but the Reds are into their third and 4th SS with Janish/Hairston. That they even have anyone playing the position after their two starters went down shows the depth. Rosales has/had a good bat last year. It seems he takes some time adjusting to new levels.

REDREAD
06-11-2008, 05:33 PM
Sorry but this goes to a lack of knowledge of the Reds' ML system. At AA, Sean Henry and Shaun Cumberland have been tearing it up. Valaika is adjusting to AA and starting to hit, .314 over his last 10 games. Dorn has been injured (laceration) but his bat is solid, .321 BA over his last 10 games as well. Frazier is a rising star, and could be in AAA by the start of next year if not sooner. Adam Rosales has been scuffling this year, but he seems to be a guy that takes a little time to adjust to higher levels.

Ok, but those guys are 2 or more years away (maybe a couple are 1 year away).

I meant a lack of depth that's ML ready, right now. I hope all 6 of those prospects pan out, but realistically, they probably all won't. We have 13 pending FAs this year. That's a lot of slots to fill.

We potentially have two OF slots to fill from outside the organization next year.. Same with C. Sure, we could live with Pattersons and Bako guys there until the calvary arrives from the farm, but that's not a pleasant thought.

Also, we don't exactly have a lot of surplus talent at any position to trade.
The FA market for OF doesn't seem that attractive. If the Reds don't want to sign Dunn, I doubt they fork out the money for Burrell.. So the only alternative is to trade for OF talent (but that costs prospects that no one wants to give up) or to go with retreads like Patterson in the OF...

Walt has a huge job ahead of him, whether he decides to rebuild or make a run for it.. I'm sure Cast didn't hire him to maintain the status quo..

mth123
06-11-2008, 08:59 PM
We have 13 pending FAs this year. That's a lot of slots to fill.

I know this was not the main point of your post, but I just want to point out that we have Adam Dunn and a bunch of guys who make the team better by leaving. The list of free agents outside of Dunn is really not a cause for concern but should cause a feeling of clearing dead wood.

The Dirty Dozen: Bako, Ross, Valentin, Weathers, Mercker, Griffey, Patterson, Fogg, Affeldt and the already gone Hatte, Castro and Stanton.

Of that group I would only consider Affeldt for cheap in his current role, Griffey as a MLB minimum making LHPH who never plays defense and maybe Bako as a back-up catcher for cheap. Affeldt is the only guy who I'd offer 7 figures to.

There really isn't a huge exodus going on outside of Dunn. Its a golden opportunity for Walt to upgrade all around IMO. Actually since the original list of 13 came out, I think that Jerry Hairston JR has joined the list. He might be worth keeping in the right role for the right price. Or maybe the Reds should know Chris Stynes or Jon Nunnally when they see it and try to flip his career year for a prospect.

Unassisted
06-11-2008, 09:24 PM
On the radio the other night, Dusty said something like "I don't know how long Homer is going to be up here. I hope he pitches well enough that he never goes back down"..
Sounds like the FO is playing "good cop, bad cop" and Dusty's on the smiling side of the scoreboard. ;)