A Bright Spot

[Strikes Out Looking]

Currently, the Cubs and Cardinals lead the NL Central. But a look at the standings reveals something that I believe shows that the race is much closer than the 6 1/2 games to 8 games the Astros, Brewers and Reds are behind by.

The Cubs are 36-21 but have played 34 home games and 23 on the road.
The Cards are 34-24 but have played 33 home games and 25 on the road.
Houston is 30-28 but have only played 24 home games with 34 on the road.
Milwaukee is 29-28 but has played 26 home games and 31 on the road.
Our Reds are 28-29 with 29 at home and 28 on the road.

Thus, I believe the Cubs and Cards will come back to the pack as they play more road games and the Astros, Brewers and hopefully, the Reds, will move closer to the top of the standings. The best part of this for the Reds is that they have already been on two road trips to the West Coast, which is where they usually go to die.

[WVRedsFan]

Currently, the Cubs and Cardinals lead the NL Central. But a look at the standings reveals something that I believe shows that the race is much closer than the 6 1/2 games to 8 games the Astros, Brewers and Reds are behind by.

The Cubs are 36-21 but have played 34 home games and 23 on the road.
The Cards are 34-24 but have played 33 home games and 25 on the road.
Houston is 30-28 but have only played 24 home games with 34 on the road.
Milwaukee is 29-28 but has played 26 home games and 31 on the road.
Our Reds are 28-29 with 29 at home and 28 on the road.

Thus, I believe the Cubs and Cards will come back to the pack as they play more road games and the Astros, Brewers and hopefully, the Reds, will move closer to the top of the standings. The best part of this for the Reds is that they have already been on two road trips to the West Coast, which is where they usually go to die.

Good point. You can also argue that the Reds' woes were because of the three sweeps they suffered at the hands of LA, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh. Without those sweeps the Reds would be 28-20.

[OnBaseMachine]

The Cubs are a great team. Their current record is 36-21 and have actually played one game under their Pythagorean record of 37-20. However, the other teams ahead of the Reds are playing over their heads. The Cardinals current record is 34-24 but have played three games better than their expected record of 31-27. Same with the Astros who are 30-28 despite allowing more runs than they have scored, though they have lost five straight and it appears their luck may be running out. I still think the Reds are the second most talented team in the division behind the Cubs and I would be surprised if the Reds finish lower than second in the division this season.

[fearofpopvol1]

If you really want to look ahead, I think the Reds have a much better shot at the wild card than they do of catching the Cubs. The only real hope the Reds have of catching the Cubs would be to sweep them. Neither of these scenarios seem likely as of right now in my opinion.

[PuffyPig]

The Cubs are a great team. Their current record is 36-21 and have actually played one game under their Pythagorean record of 37-20. However, the other teams ahead of the Reds are playing over their heads. The Cardinals current record is 34-24 but have played three games better than their expected record of 31-27. Same with the Astros who are 30-28 despite allowing more runs than they have scored, though they have lost five straight and it appears their luck may be running out. I still think the Reds are the second most talented team in the division behind the Cubs and I would be surprised if the Reds finish lower than second in the division this season.

What he said.

The Cubs are the best team in the division by far right now. They have less weaknesses.

The Cards will likely come back to the pack. There may well be a great 4 (or even 5) team race for spots 2-6. I like the Reds chances in that group.

[Falls City Beer]

Unfortunately, as has been mentioned, the Reds would have to be perfect to catch the Cubs. The really good news is that the Wild Card *won't* be coming from the West, so you can take them out of consideration altogether; which leaves the rest of the Central and a bundle of teams in the East. I think the Reds are definitely better than the Brewers, Houston, and Pittsburgh; at this moment, a bit worse than the Cards and much worse than the Cubs. If the Reds want to catch the Cards, they're going to have to do it themselves because the Cards' pitching isn't going to come apart. It's June and it hasn't fallen apart; it probably isn't going to. In the East, I think the Reds could jump ahead of the Marlins, maybe the Mets, and maybe Atlanta. Almost certainly not Philly, though.

[flyer85]

An issue is that the Reds have reached the point that to make an improvement to the club big enough to make an impact on the playoff race they will have to deal something of value ... and if Jocketty is willing to do that he has to get it right.

[IslandRed]

An issue is that the Reds have reached the point that to make an improvement to the club big enough to make an impact on the playoff race they will have to deal something of value ... and if Jocketty is willing to do that he has to get it right.

True enough.

Something worth considering, though... there will probably not be a single isolated player move made in MLB this year that will have a bigger positive impact than swapping Corey Patterson for Jay Bruce, and we're already seeing the benefits. It's like we already made a terrific deadline trade. If we can patch the #5 spot in the rotation to where it's not a guaranteed L, we might be closer than we think.

[LincolnparkRed]

Just getting Harang back to .500 would be a big help. I think you should see what we have with Maloney and or Homer. If either can produce then you are just looking to tweak the bullpen and add one more RH bat.

[wheels]

An upgrade at catcher and a bullpen arm would make this club almost formidable.

That bullpen arm might already be in the system *cough!* Roenicke *cough!*.

[TeamBoone]

But remember, the Reds seem to play better against the tougher teams.