PDA

View Full Version : Griffey Out Tonight-- "General Soreness"



reds44
06-02-2008, 06:16 PM
To avoid getting this bad boy locked, I'll avoid posting the lineup. Fay had this to say:



Ken Griffey Jr. is out. General soreness. I believe it's his knee, although he wouldn't say specifically. He may be able to play tomorrow. "Hopefully," he said.

Dusty Baker would not say if Griffey is available to pinch-hit. "This ain't football," he said. "I don't want Charley (Manuel) to know."

reds44
06-02-2008, 06:20 PM
And a quote from Dusty.


“That’s why we took him out of the game yesterday,” Baker said. “He was ailing a little bit. That’s the time you don’t want to take a chance.

“If you start favoring something, then you end up blowing something out, so we’ll try to spot him. He wants to play every day.”

Matt700wlw
06-02-2008, 06:20 PM
#600...DL.

Could happen...hopefully not, but it could.

cumberlandreds
06-02-2008, 06:28 PM
I know how Griffey feels. I have general soreness nearly every morning when I get up for work.

red-in-la
06-02-2008, 06:30 PM
I wonder if JR might miss the next 8 games.....just sayin' :cool:

Kc61
06-02-2008, 06:31 PM
I wonder if JR might miss the next 8 games.....just sayin' :cool:


Yeah, just like he played almost every inning of the homestand.

Deepred05
06-02-2008, 06:31 PM
[QUOTE=Matt700wlw;1653069]#600...DL.

Could happen...hopefully not, but it could.[/QUOTE

nm

red-in-la
06-02-2008, 06:32 PM
Yeah, just like he played almost every inning of the homestand.

Sorry you didn't get it.:D

OldXOhio
06-02-2008, 06:38 PM
Sorry you didn't get it.:D


Uh, what is wanting to hit historic #600 at home for $500 Alex?

TRF
06-02-2008, 06:43 PM
Uh, what is wanting to hit historic #600 at home for $500 Alex?

The team is 1 game under .500. I doubt he wants to sit. and he's been heating up too.

red-in-la
06-02-2008, 06:48 PM
The team is 1 game under .500. I doubt he wants to sit. and he's been heating up too.

The Reds will have to pull off a HUGE turnabout or they will come home back in the cellar.

StillFunkyB
06-02-2008, 06:49 PM
IIRC they stated on TV a few days ago that his knee was bothering him a bit.

OldXOhio
06-02-2008, 06:50 PM
The team is 1 game under .500. I doubt he wants to sit. and he's been heating up too.

Oh I don't think it's the case at all. If anyone's accustomed to reaching milestones on the road, it's Junior.

I just saw a chance to play the game and frankly, I'm in need of some more Turtle Wax.

Reds Freak
06-02-2008, 07:29 PM
Hopefully Jr. is alright. These little day-to-day type injuries have put him out for some time in the past. What if he hits 600 in Florida? What's the saying? If he hits 600 and no one sees it does it really count?

Blitz Dorsey
06-02-2008, 07:51 PM
I'll resist the urge to say this could be a blessing in disguise.

Whoops.

Spring~Fields
06-02-2008, 07:54 PM
I'll resist the urge to say this could be a blessing in disguise.

Whoops.

I am not sure about that, Griffey batting behind Jay Bruce, hasn't hurt Bruce any, which we all enjoyed a great deal.

Raisor
06-02-2008, 07:57 PM
I'd keep Bruce in the 2-slot.

A Hairston/Bruce/Dunn top of the lineup could put a hurting on the Phil's fast.

They really need to get off to a fast start.

Spring~Fields
06-02-2008, 08:01 PM
I'd keep Bruce in the 2-slot.

A Hairston/Bruce/Dunn top of the lineup could put a hurting on the Phil's fast.

They really need to get off to a fast start.

Thanks Phil, like I needed my buttons pushed.........;)

Oh, I agree with you 110%, of course another doesn't and he gets to make out the lineup.....:cry:

Hairston/Bruce/Dunn looks mighty fine to me.

RedsManRick
06-02-2008, 08:07 PM
It would have been a lot funnier if they just said "old".

This double leadoff stuff is really stupid. Would it have been that hard to bat Freel 7th and bump everybody else up?

Hairston
Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
EE
Votto
Freel
Bako

It even meets Dusty's R/L/R requirement...

cincinnati chili
06-02-2008, 08:08 PM
I'll resist the urge to say this could be a blessing in disguise.

Whoops.

I'll resist the urge to say lefties are hitting .100 points better against Kyle Kendrick than righties and it sucks that Freel is in the lineup instead of Griffey.

GAC
06-02-2008, 10:03 PM
I called into work tonight with "general soreness". ;)

Caveat Emperor
06-02-2008, 10:50 PM
I'd be completely OK if the Reds organization gave the collective one-finger salute to the city of Philadelphia and benched Griffey for the entire series.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 12:02 AM
It would have been a lot funnier if they just said "old".

This double leadoff stuff is really stupid. Would it have been that hard to bat Freel 7th and bump everybody else up?

Hairston
Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
EE
Votto
Freel
Bako

It even meets Dusty's R/L/R requirement...

I agree on the Freel comment. Plus we have some additional follow up results on Freel first pitch swinging and netting 0 hits and 0 walks tonight.

Freel
vs. Left .339 .388 .435 .823
vs. Right .274 .313 .306 .619

Phillips last 7 182 .286 .500 .786
Vs. left .348 .397 .758 1.155 vs right .260 .307 .433 .740

How about the question of batting Phillips in the cleanup against right handed pitchers? One can almost say that Phillips is two different batters depending on if it is a right handed or left handed pitcher. Though Phillips did have one hit tonight.

Hairston last 7 .458 .536 .583 1.119
vs. left .433 .500 .600 1.100 vs right .303 .333 .439 .772

Bruce last 7 .591 .690 1.000 1.690
vs. left .556 .692 .667 1.359 vs. right .615 .688 1.231 1.919

Dunn last 7 .278 .458 .611 1.069,
vs left .231 .414 .423 .837 vs right .265 .409 .615 1.024

Votto last 7 .400 .520 .450 .970
vs left .322 .412 .593 1.005 vs right .270 .336 .486 .822

Ross last 7 .273 .429 .636 1.065
vs left .250 .357 .375 .732 vs right .280 .419 .360 .779

Phillips last 7 182 .286 .500 .786
Vs. left .348 .397 .758 1.155 vs right .260 .307 .433 .740

Encarcion last 7 .182 .217 .227 .445
vs left .271 .358 .390 .748 vs right .217 .288 .420 .708

Freel last 7 .000 .000 .000 .000
vs. Left .339 .388 .435 .823 vs. Right .274 .313 .306 .619

I would prefer that Phillips sixth or seventh and Freel bat seventh or eighth against right handerís, if like tonight, where a Griffey is not playing.

Might be the difference in a one run game.

I am still wondering though if an Encarcion would hit better up at the 3 hole with some power bats behind him, if he might, might get some pitches he can hit more consistently though.

alloverjr
06-03-2008, 12:12 AM
It would have been a lot funnier if they just said "old".

This double leadoff stuff is really stupid. Would it have been that hard to bat Freel 7th and bump everybody else up?

Hairston
Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
EE
Votto
Freel
Bako

It even meets Dusty's R/L/R requirement...

Or, play Janish at SS and bat him 8th. I've even seen him take a pitch before ;). Seriously, with few exceptions the offense has gotten cranked up because of a patient approach at the plate - that and their 2 hitter is hitting close to .600. Their last 2 losses, maybe not so coincidentally have come with Freel in the starting lineup and hitting either 1 or 2 in the order. Does that make Bronson pitch like crap? Nope. Well, maybe. I just fail to see why inserting a hack like freel at the top of the lineup just because he's fast is productive.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 12:22 AM
Or, play Janish at SS and bat him 8th. I've even seen him take a pitch before ;). Seriously, with few exceptions the offense has gotten cranked up because of a patient approach at the plate - that and their 2 hitter is hitting close to .600. Their last 2 losses, maybe not so coincidentally have come with Freel in the starting lineup and hitting either 1 or 2 in the order. Does that make Bronson pitch like crap? Nope. Well, maybe. I just fail to see why inserting a hack like freel at the top of the lineup just because he's fast is productive.


Or, play Janish at SS and bat him 8th.

That is another good point, because if Janish doesnít get some playing time he might be as cold at the plate as fish on ice whenever he finally does get some AB, and then we might misinterpret his abilities as being bad or worse, when it could be a lack of playing time, plus he could have played short and Hairston right or center tonight.

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2008, 12:28 AM
Griffey speaks
Posted by JohnFay at 6/2/2008 5:44 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

Ken Griffey Jr. hasn't talked much about the chase to 600 until Monday. He was out of the lineup, but he spent about 15 minutes talking with media before the game:

Are you enjoying the chase to 600? ďI enjoy baseball. Good or bad. I enjoy the sport. Iíve done a lot of good things. A few bad things. I donít really think about the numbers. My dad wasnít a numbers guy. Thatís just how I grew up.Ē

On why he doesnít talk about it: A lot of people donít understand that in a day when hype is everything. I was fortunate enough to have a dad who played major league baseball and worried about how we were as kids not the numbers we put up. The questions I got were: Howíd your team do? Howíd you do? What do you need to work on? Now days it I, I, me, me.Ē

On the playing with the young guys like Jay Bruce: ďItís a lot of fun. It helps to have young kids up, especially for veterans who get to see the enthusiasm they have and bring back come memories when you started and how much fun it was Ė and still is. To have Jay up . . . I was that rookie 20 years ago asking Jeffrey Leonard those questions. Now, I get the questions. Itís a lot of fun.Ē

On his numbers: ďItís just weird. Itís overwhelming at some points. Embarrassing. I would have never dreamed Iíd be in this position. My dad was the guy I wanted to be like. If looked his career Ė he had a pretty good career Ė thatís the guy who looked like me, acted like me, took care of me. I didnít think Iíd be better than him. He said I would be. I was like, Ďyeah, right.í I was 14 when he said it. Sometimes dad does know best. But you donít want to listen to them when youíre 14. Iím going through that now with my 14 year old.Ē
On his chance to get the postseason: ďI think this team has a pretty good chance of doing some thing -- if not this year in the next couple of years with all the young guys. I donít really worry about that. I worry about what Iíve got to do today, learn from yesterday. Some people are luckier than others. I donít worry about it.Ē

How much longer will you play? ďIíve got a 12 year old. When she says come home, Iíll come home. She hasnít said yet. She still likes me out of the house. I know the boys do. We havenít really discussed that. Iím still having fun. As long as youíre still having fun, you should go out and play.Ē

On getting to 600 clean in the steroid era: ďMy thing was donít embarrass your teammates, the organization or your family. Thatís one thing you try not to do. As long as you work hard and do things the right way. Itís a touchy situation.Ē

Is he suspicious of others on list? ďNo, I worry about the other 24 guys in this lockerroom.Ē

http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a5dbedf2f-f153-4d23-8f85-4ee4afda08ef&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 12:58 AM
That is a nice article and good interview by Junior, the man seems to have his priorities right.

Ron Madden
06-03-2008, 04:25 AM
That is a nice article and good interview by Junior, the man seems to have his priorities right.

I agree. Great article and interveiw. :thumbup:

Hal McCoy didn't seem to happy about it though. :rolleyes:

OldXOhio
06-03-2008, 09:39 AM
Griffey speaks

"I don’t really think about the numbers. My dad wasn’t a numbers guy. That’s just how I grew up.”




I think this is a load of bunk. Sorry, but every athlete thinks about his/her numbers. We've all played sports at one time and we all knew exactly how we were performing, down to the hit, rebound or tackle. I don't buy that because the athlete is a professional they think any differently. Sometimes, I wish Junior would come out and speak directly to his accomplishments - wouldn't make him look selfish or like an ego maniac IMO.

vaticanplum
06-03-2008, 11:25 AM
I'd be completely OK if the Reds organization gave the collective one-finger salute to the city of Philadelphia and benched Griffey for the entire series.

I don't get it; what does that do for Philadelphia? Griffey is a liability in the field so you could argue that his absence there actually helps the Phillies. If he hits #600 in Philly I doubt they look at that as any positive accomplishment for them.

Unless you're implying that he still brings people to the ballpark? I doubt it though.

vaticanplum
06-03-2008, 11:27 AM
I think this is a load of bunk. Sorry, but every athlete thinks about his/her numbers. We've all played sports at one time and we all knew exactly how we were performing, down to the hit, rebound or tackle. I don't buy that because the athlete is a professional they think any differently. Sometimes, I wish Junior would come out and speak directly to his accomplishments - wouldn't make him look selfish or like an ego maniac IMO.

If he did talk about his numbers he'd definitely be pegged as an egomaniac by the press and the public, much more so than by saying he doesn't pay them any mind. I agree with your take as far as honesty goes, but unfortunately that's not the reality of the public our athletes face.

Matt700wlw
06-03-2008, 06:21 PM
Out again tonight (Tuesday)

SS-Jerry Hairston Jr.

CF-Ryan Freel

RF-Jay Bruce

2B-Brandon Phillips

LF-Adam Dunn

1B-Joey Votto

3B-Edwin Encarnacion

C-Paul Bako

P-Harang

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:30 PM
What is "general soreness" ?

bucksfan
06-03-2008, 06:33 PM
What is "general soreness" ?

I don't know but I bet "Captain Pain" reports to him.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:34 PM
I don't know but I bet "Captain Pain" reports to him.

And Major Pain The :mooner: too. ;)

OnBaseMachine
06-03-2008, 06:34 PM
That stinks. Just when Griff was starting to heat up he misses a few games. We could've really used his hot bat this series against guys like Kendrick, Eaton, and Myers, all three of which Griff has hit well against.

camisadelgolf
06-03-2008, 06:36 PM
We should probably just go ahead and sticky this thread.

Matt700wlw
06-03-2008, 06:37 PM
Sounds like another "day to day" injury that keeps Griffey out for months.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:38 PM
That stinks. Just when Griff was starting to heat up he misses a few games. We could've really used his hot bat this series against guys like Kendrick, Eaton, and Myers, all three of which Griff has hit well against.

Yes Griff was starting to put up some consistent numbers.

Will this end up leading to a DL trip and a recall of Patterson ?

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:39 PM
Sounds like another "day to day" injury that keeps Griffey out for months.

Has happened before, I hope that is not the case.

Baker says per WLW that Griffey could be back tomorrow.

KronoRed
06-03-2008, 06:39 PM
Yes Griff was starting to put up some consistent numbers.

Will this end up leading to a DL trip and a recall of Patterson ?

Bite your tounge :help:

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 06:40 PM
Two lead-off men again. Would it really kill us to have Bruce and Dunn back to back?

KronoRed
06-03-2008, 06:40 PM
Two lead-off men again. Would it really kill us to have Bruce and Dunn back to back?

Dusty must have a rule against Dunn in the 3 spot, even the young Bruce gets a shot there before the veteran Dunn.

Matt700wlw
06-03-2008, 06:43 PM
Has happened before, I hope that is not the case.

Baker says per WLW that Griffey could be back tomorrow.

He said that yesterday too...

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:44 PM
Two lead-off men again. Would it really kill us to have Bruce and Dunn back to back?

No, I couldn't find in the numbers today where it would hurt. (you and the other sabr and stats guys caught a break today, I had a page of numbers and questions, lost it when I did not save it regarding why the Phils have scored more run than the Reds etc this year with the individual stats.)

According to the stats I had Phillips and Freel should be 7-8 against right handers.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:46 PM
He said that yesterday too...

Oh, I selective memory when it comes to Dusty, you know how he can be with words. :)

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:48 PM
Dusty must have a rule against Dunn in the 3 spot, even the young Bruce gets a shot there before the veteran Dunn.

Good point, even the young and inexperienced Bruce "gets a shot there before the veteran Dunn". Good observation.

TRF
06-03-2008, 06:52 PM
Ya know I usually hate Dunn hitting 5th. I think he should hit 2nd personally, but that is some dandy protection behind him.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 06:58 PM
Ya know I usually hate Dunn hitting 5th. I think he should hit 2nd personally, but that is some dandy protection behind him.

Freel had protection and still could not get a hit last night.

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 07:05 PM
When it comes to lineup order, there's one thing that shouldn't cause any disagreement -- guys at the top get more plate appearances.

9th inning, Reds down 1, lineup is turning over.

Hairston, Freel, Bruce?

OR

Hairston, Bruce, Dunn?

If you don't believe any of the other stuff about interaction between skills and whatnot, that's a real simple test. Design your lineup to get your best hitters the most at bats. That should be rule #1, #2, and #3.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 07:13 PM
When it comes to lineup order, there's one thing that shouldn't cause any disagreement -- guys at the top get more plate appearances.

9th inning, Reds down 1, lineup is turning over.

Hairston, Freel, Bruce?

OR

Hairston, Bruce, Dunn?

If you don't believe any of the other stuff about interaction between players and whatnot, that's a real simple test. Design your lineup to get your best hitters the most at bats. That should be rule #1, #2, and #3.

That means batting the guys with the highest OBP, SLG and OPS correct ???
Also that could mean that it is variable depending on how well batters hit against a right hander or a left hander right ?

Example: against right handers ? OBP and SLG
Hairston .385 .480
Bruce .667 1.038
Dunn .408 .555
Votto .356 .511
Phillips .336 .529 against RH .310 .433
Ross .371 .346
Encarcion .308 .423 against RH .288 .420
Freel .341 .359 against RH .296 .288

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 07:17 PM
That means batting the guys with the highest OBP, SLG and OPS correct ???
Also that could mean that it is variable depending on batters hit against a right hander or a left hander right ?

Example: against right handers ?
Hairston
Bruce
Dunn
Votto
Phillips
Ross
Encarcion
Freel


Absolutely. You're probably going to want to look at bigger sample sizes than what I imagine you've looked at here, but that's the general idea.

Phillips batting cleanup against righties is ridiculous. And frankly, I wouldn't want to save him for cleanup against lefties, I'd want him 2nd or 3rd.

Dusty seems to design his lineup based on a "roles" concept combined with a near iron-clad alternating handedness.

Will M
06-03-2008, 07:27 PM
Phillips batting cleanup against righties is ridiculous. And frankly, I wouldn't want to save him for cleanup against lefties, I'd want him 2nd or 3rd.


agree. he is struggling against righties this year. he has hit lefties well in the past but this year he is destroying them. bat him 3rd vs LHP and 7th vs RHP.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 07:34 PM
Absolutely. You're probably going to want to look at bigger sample sizes than what I imagine you've looked at here, but that's the general idea.

Phillips batting cleanup against righties is ridiculous. And frankly, I wouldn't want to save him for cleanup against lefties, I'd want him 2nd or 3rd.

Dusty seems to design his lineup based on a "roles" concept combined with a near iron-clad alternating handedness.

That is what I was working on this morning starting with the premise that Philadelphia has scored 320 runs this year compared to Cincinnati's 266, and working that on down to a comparison of the OBP, SLG and OPS for both lineups of the normal eight. Then I was going to ask those (sabr/stats proficient) like yourself why with the questions and so forth.

Because of Freel batting second last night going with no hits and no walks, and the Reds losing by one run. My next thought of course was how many one or two run games have the Reds lost and can that be related to OBP, SLG and, well that is OPS when combined, but I was looking at offense only, of course we know that the defense and pitching have cost games because of the RA, runs allowed, but the offense seems like it could have been scoring more runs this year when I look and compare it to the Philadelphia and their 320 RS, runs scored. But I lost the work before I could get it in some intelligent order to ask decent questions.

fearofpopvol1
06-03-2008, 07:37 PM
I like Freel, but he should be benched for his play yesterday. I think he made or 4 or 5 outs in like 6 pitches. For this evening, I'd rather see them put Janish at SS, Hairston in RF and Bruce in Center.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 07:49 PM
Rough draft
Summary
Questions - Based on the player statistics below,
Why has Philadelphia scored more runs than the Reds this season?
Why does Philadelphia average more runs per game - 320 runs/59 games 5.424 runs per game, than Cincinnati averaged - 266 runs/58 4.586 runs per game
Why has Philadelphia scored 320 runs this season while Cincinnati has only scored 266 runs this season?
Why has Philadelphia scored 54 more runs than the Reds this season?
How many games does the runs scored differentiation of 54 runs equate to in the win column?
How much of an impact does batting the wrong OBP, SLG and OPS up in the order effect runs scored?




RK Team BA OBP SLG OPS Runs Scored
10 Cincinnati .259 .333 .421 .753 - 266
2 Philadelphia .267 .342 .461 .803 - 320


Hitters Hitters
SS Bats R J Hairston SS Bats B J Rollins
Last seven .429 .500 .536 1.036 Last seven .154 .185 .154 .339
Vs. left .433 .500 .600 1.100 Vs left .289 .347 .533 .880
Vs. right .303 .333 .439 .772 Vs right .293 .337 .424 .761
CF Bats L J Bruce CF Bats B S Victorino
Last seven .577 .667 1.038 1.705 Last seven .400 .423 .520 .943
Vs. left .556 .692 .667 1.359 Vs left .250 .323 .446 .769
Vs. right .588 .650 1.235 1.885 Vs right .311 .369 .378 .747
CF Bats L K Griffey Jr 2B Bats L C Utley
Last seven .294 .391 .588 .980 Last seven .429 .538 1.190 1.729
Vs. left .188 .284 .297 .581 Vs. left .315 .393 .739 1.132
Vs. right .286 .370 .443 .813 Vs. right .310 .401 .612 1.013
2B Bats R B Phillips 1B Bats L R Howard
Last seven .192 .281 .462 .743 Last seven .222 .417 .444 .861
Vs. left .348 .397 .758 1.155 Vs. left .200 .270 .456 .726
Vs. right .261 .311 .438 .749 Vs. right .215 .358 .479 .837
LF Bats L A Dunn LF Bats R P Burrell
Last seven .273 .429 .591 1.019 Last seven .400 .550 .533 1.083
Vs. left .231 .414 .423 .837 Vs. left .268 .446 .518 .964
Vs. right .265 .409 .615 1.024 Vs. right .286 .410 .611 1.021
3B Bats R E Encarnacion RF Bats L G Jenkins
Last seven .192 .222 .346 .568 Last seven .333 .444 .867 1.311
Vs. left .271 .358 .390 .748 Vs. left .143 .143 .143 .286
Vs right .218 .287 .437 .724 Vs. right .299 .338 .460 .798
1B Bats L J Votto 3B Bats R P Feliz
Last seven .333 .448 .375 .823 Last seven .174 .208 .348 .556
Vs. left .322 .412 .593 1.005 Vs. left .292 .333 .585 .918
Vs. right .270 .336 .486 .822 Vs. right .243 .280 .346 .626
C Bat R D Ross C Bats R C Coste
Last seven .214 .353 .500 .853 Last seven .231 .286 .692 .978
Vs. left .250 .357 .375 .732 Vs. left .355 .429 .645 1.074
Vs. right .250 .382 .321 .703 Vs. right .318 .375 .530 .905


Did a recovery on part of it. I just didn't get the decent questions ironed out for the SABR and Stats folks, meaning those that work in more depth with them. I was trying to set up a good Q&A topic. Hoping that it would work on down to answers to why and how the OBP/SLG/OPS use with the batters and order can effect runs scored, and the outcomes of one or two run games etc.

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 07:59 PM
That is what I was working on this morning starting with the premise that Philadelphia has scored 320 runs this year compared to Cincinnati's 266, and working that on down to a comparison of the OBP, SLG and OPS for both lineups of the normal eight. Then I was going to ask those like yourself why with the questions and so forth. Because of Freel batting second last night going with no hits and no walks, and the Reds losing by one run. My next thought of course was how many one or two run games have the Reds lost and can that be related to OBP, SLG and, well that is OPS when combined, but I was looking at offense only, of course we know that the defense and pitching have cost games because of the RA, runs allowed, but the offense seems like it could have been scoring more runs this year when I look and compare it to the Philadelphia and their 320 RS, runs scored. But I lost the work before I could get it in some intelligent order to ask decent questions.

You're thinking in the right direction. I would caution you away from the specific game analysis path though. It's just too difficult to factor in all of the variables at that level. Sometimes the best lineup just doesn't hit on a given night and sometime you get homers from Freel and Juan Castro. You just can't account for it all, end up playing guessing games about what might have happened, and that inevitably leads to an introduction of bias.

The bigger issue is simply playing the guys who produce. Replacing Patterson with Bruce is a massive upgrade.

Here's the NL to date. The Cubs and Phillies are the only teams getting on base at a .340+ clip and slugging at a .450+ clip -- and they are far and away the league leaders in run production. The Reds are just about the perfectly average NL offense, which is sad given our home park.



RK TEAM R/G BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Chicago Cubs 5.71 .288 .367 .452 .819
2 Philadelphia 5.42 .267 .342 .461 .803
3 Arizona 5.00 .256 .336 .436 .773
4 Pittsburgh 5.00 .260 .329 .410 .738
5 Florida 4.89 .258 .323 .449 .772
6 NY Mets 4.77 .255 .333 .398 .731
7 Atlanta 4.72 .277 .351 .427 .778
8 Houston 4.60 .260 .320 .415 .735
9 Cincinnati 4.59 .259 .333 .421 .753
10 St. Louis 4.58 .276 .358 .410 .768
11 LA Dodgers 4.51 .267 .337 .386 .722
12 Milwaukee 4.34 .250 .323 .408 .730
13 Colorado 4.17 .254 .325 .391 .715
14 San Francisco 3.93 .260 .322 .401 .724
15 Washington 3.74 .231 .308 .349 .657
16 San Diego 3.66 .237 .310 .365 .675
AVG National League 4.59 .260 .332 .411 .743


Why has Philadelphia scored more runs than the Reds this season?
Why does Philadelphia average more runs per game - 320 runs/59 games 5.424 runs per game, than Cincinnati averaged - 266 runs/58 4.586 runs per game
Why has Philadelphia scored 320 runs this season while Cincinnati has only scored 266 runs this season?
Why has Philadelphia scored 54 more runs than the Reds this season?

They've simply gotten on base more often and hit for a lot more power than the Reds have.

I was hoping to do a quick regression to answer this question; A regression could give you a nice little formula. Here's one from 2001-2003:

R/G = 17.11*OBP + 11.13*SLG - 5.66. The run scoring environment is probably a touch different this year than those years, but the relationship between OBP and SLG is pretty consistent. This formula suggests that OBP is ~50% more important than SLG or 3 parts OBP to 2 parts of SLG. (Since OPS is just a OBP+ SLG, you don't want to use it at the same time as those).

That said, you'll see more variation across the league on a per point basis in SLG than OBP. Looking at the NL, the difference between the best and worst OBP is just 59 points, compared to 96 points of SLG. OBP is more important, but it's harder to come by.

Using the above model and an assumed level of performance and playing time, the upgrade from Patterson to Bruce could be worth as much as .2 runs per game for the Reds - 30 runs on the season. Talk about huge.


How many games does the runs scored differentiation of 54 runs equate to in the win column?
On average, every 10 runs of differential (Runs Scored vs Runs Allowed) is worth a win. If both teams had allowed the same number of runs, 54 runs equates to about 5 wins. But the Phillies have also allowed 30 fewer runs than the Reds, so that's 3 more. The Phillies have played 1 more game than the Reds, so the math is slightly off, but if you look at their expected W/L records, the Phillies have an expected 35 wins and the Reds 27. There's your 8 wins, 5 of which are due to the differing offensive performances to date.


How much of an impact does batting the wrong OBP, SLG and OPS up in the order effect runs scored?

There are a couple ways to go about answer the question. Justin Inaz takes a shot at it on his blog (On Baseball and the Reds). I would recommend you check that out.

Lineup simulators suggest that a well ordered lineup can be worth as much as 50 runs or more over a horribly constructed one (think pitcher leading off). But in terms of bad, but plausable lineups compared to good ones, it's more like 20 runs over the course of the season.

Here's a statistics heavy article that dives in to the subject in a bit more depth: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 08:40 PM
You're thinking in the right direction. I would caution you away from the specific game analysis path though. It's just too difficult to factor in all of the variables at that level. Sometimes the best lineup just doesn't hit on a given night and sometime you get homers from Freel and Juan Castro. You just can't account for it all, end up playing guessing games about what might have happened, and that inevitably leads to an introduction of bias.

The bigger issue is simply playing the guys who produce. Replacing Patterson with Bruce is a massive upgrade.

Here's the NL to date. The Cubs and Phillies are the only teams getting on base at a .340+ clip and slugging at a .450+ clip -- and they are far and away the league leaders in run production. The Reds are just about the perfectly average NL offense, which is sad given our home park.



RK TEAM R/G BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Chicago Cubs 5.71 .288 .367 .452 .819
2 Philadelphia 5.42 .267 .342 .461 .803
3 Arizona 5.00 .256 .336 .436 .773
4 Pittsburgh 5.00 .260 .329 .410 .738
5 Florida 4.89 .258 .323 .449 .772
6 NY Mets 4.77 .255 .333 .398 .731
7 Atlanta 4.72 .277 .351 .427 .778
8 Houston 4.60 .260 .320 .415 .735
9 Cincinnati 4.59 .259 .333 .421 .753
10 St. Louis 4.58 .276 .358 .410 .768
11 LA Dodgers 4.51 .267 .337 .386 .722
12 Milwaukee 4.34 .250 .323 .408 .730
13 Colorado 4.17 .254 .325 .391 .715
14 San Francisco 3.93 .260 .322 .401 .724
15 Washington 3.74 .231 .308 .349 .657
16 San Diego 3.66 .237 .310 .365 .675
AVG National League 4.59 .260 .332 .411 .743



They've simply gotten on base more often and hit for a lot more power than the Reds have.

I was hoping to do a quick regression to answer this question; A regression could give you a nice little formula. Here's one from 2001-2003:

R/G = 17.11*OBP + 11.13*SLG - 5.66. The run scoring environment is probably a touch different this year than those years, but the relationship between OBP and SLG is pretty consistent. This formula suggests that OBP is ~50% more important than SLG or 3 parts OBP to 2 parts of SLG. (Since OPS is just a OBP+ SLG, you don't want to use it at the same time as those).

That said, you'll see more variation across the league on a per point basis in SLG than OBP. Looking at the NL, the difference between the best and worst OBP is just 59 points, compared to 96 points of SLG. OBP is more important, but it's harder to come by.

Using the above model and an assumed level of performance and playing time, the upgrade from Patterson to Bruce could be worth as much as .2 runs per game for the Reds - 30 runs on the season. Talk about huge.


On average, every 10 runs of differential (Runs Scored vs Runs Allowed) is worth a win. If both teams had allowed the same number of runs, 54 runs equates to about 5 wins. But the Phillies have also allowed 30 fewer runs than the Reds, so that's 3 more. The Phillies have played 1 more game than the Reds, so the math is slightly off, but if you look at their expected W/L records, the Phillies have an expected 35 wins and the Reds 27. There's your 8 wins, 5 of which are due to the differing offensive performances to date.

There are a couple ways to go about answer the question. Justin Inaz takes a shot at it on his blog (On Baseball and the Reds). I would recommend you check that out.

Lineup simulators suggest that a well ordered lineup can be worth as much as 50 runs or more over a horribly constructed one (think pitcher leading off). But in terms of bad, but plausable lineups compared to good ones, it's more like 20 runs over the course of the season.

Here's a statistics heavy article that dives in to the subject in a bit more depth: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/2/12/133645/296.

Thank RMR, Very interesting material and work. Something that we can understand and see is real, and not just an opin as in a fans fav batting or playing here or there, there is genuine reasons to the outcomes.


There were some posts about this awhile back, but basically the difference between a "Dusty" lineup and a better one is something like 20 or 30 runs, about 2-3 wins worth. It's not a huge deal, but it counts.

Counts especially if the Reds end up 2 ½ - 3 game behind at the end and that can happen and has to teams.

If I went away from conservatism and took the more liberal figure of an increase of 30 runs that would put the Reds third, 296 in runs scored, even the conservative 20 runs would make them 4th 286 in runs scored. I haven’t researched the one or two run game yet to try to imply that they may have turned those losses into wins but, I comfortable with accepting your input of 2-3 wins improvement. 296/58 5.103 R/G or 286/58 4.931 results that would place the Reds offense up with the more prominent teams offense in the league. Am I correct ?

The whole is tough to analyze I found right off because actually there is no norm for the starting eight, with the injuries, players going up and down, and as you point out the major difference in a comparison of Bruce vs Patterson etc.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 09:06 PM
They've simply gotten on base more often and hit for a lot more power than the Reds have.
The quick assumption is that the above is true, then it would have to follow that it is of key importance to have the most proficient on base percentage players leading off in any given inning or getting the most AB or PA during games over the course of the season, and to have the higher slugging rate or percentage players coming up behind them to drive in the OBP players to gain the RS.

But the Reds do not stack the higher OBP, and then stack the higher SLG players behind them with regularity, so in that there would be a reduction of runners on base with an opportunity for the higher slugging batters to drive them in which could easily cost the Reds games where they are 1-3 runs behind.

The order would be something like: against LH
Hairston OBP
Phillips
Bruce or perhaps Bruce behind Dunn
Dunn
Votto
And so forth ?

Against RH
Hairston
Bruce
Dunn
Votto
Griffey
Phillips
And so forth ?

The key though is that there is statistical or mathematical support for a given lineup order, and it is not just some conjecture or fan bias for or against player x or y or z when the order is constructed per the OBP SLG reasoning. It is a matter of runs scored and games won or lost. Unfortunately I don’t know a way to determine intangibles of how greater run support may or may not contribute to relief for the pitching and defense, but it can contribute, I don’t think we can prove that though.

So OBP/SLG becomes like a model where one plugs in the given players with the higher OBP to get the most AB or PA so that they can get on base a higher percentage of time so that the higher SLG batters are behind them to have a higher percentage of time opportunity to drive in runs ? It really isn't about who the player is, it is about the production and performance consistency correct? Even on days where a Griffey or other are off and out of the lineup, one would still plug in the greater pct of the given player to replace them on that day?

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 09:13 PM
Counts especially if the Reds end up 2 ½ - 3 game behind at the end and that can happen and has to teams.

If I went away from conservatism and took the more liberal figure of an increase of 30 runs that would put the Reds third, 296 in runs scored, even the conservative 20 runs would make them 4th 286 in runs scored. I haven’t researched the one or two run game yet to try to imply that they may have turned those losses into wins but, I comfortable with accepting your input of 2-3 wins improvement. 296/58 5.103 R/G or 286/58 4.931 results that would place the Reds offense up with the more prominent teams offense in the league. Am I correct ?

The whole is tough to analyze I found right off because actually there is no norm for the starting eight, with the injuries, players going up and down, and as you point out the major difference in a comparison of Bruce vs Patterson etc.

That's 20-30 over the course of the season. Figure something more like 8-10 runs thus far.


But the Reds do not stack the higher OBP, and then stack the higher SLG players behind them with regularity, so in that there would be a reduction of runners on base with an opportunity for the higher slugging batters to drive them in which could easily cost the Reds games where they are 1-3 runs behind.

Yes. Generically speaking, this is true. But remember that the difference between players is actually fairly small, particularly when looking at a sample as small as a single game. The outcome of any given game is much more determined by what we might call "luck", the events and their order which just so happened to happen on that day than any specific lineup decision. The difference between a good OBP, .370, and a bad one, .320 is only .050 -- that's one extra time on base every 20 plate appearances, every 4-5 games.

Over time, those marginal differences add up quite a bit, especially when you multiply it across a bunch of players. But within the course of any particular game, it's impossible to blame the outcome on any one person, event, or decision.

So getting back to the lineup, if you want to look at those games the Reds lose by a run and blame lineup, be my guest, but you can only do it 2 or 3 times over the course of the year. The reality is that it's never the defining factor. It's just one more small factor among many that affects the outcome of games.

And that's really the crux of the matter. Lineup order is just one piece of a much larger puzzle and there are some other, albeit minor, considerations about lineup construction in terms of things like the usage of speed, LOOGY avoidance, and protection. I would argue that those should all be tiebreakers more than key considerations and most research I've seen suggests likewise.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 09:42 PM
The difference between a good OBP, .370, and a bad one, .320 is only .050 -- that's one extra time on base every 20 plate appearances, every 4-5 games.

Over time, those marginal differences add up quite a bit, especially when you multiply it across a bunch of players.

The top line would seem to indicate the need for a consistent placing of the top OBP players and SLG players, even though there can be a minute difference of only .50, it can be an advantage or simply add up in the mix of the first six to seven batters or more if a team has the luxury 6-8 very good players, and even more critical of a team that might only have 4-5 good players, would that be true?

So then,
Last night for an example would have been an example of “luck” where as the better hitters were making solid contact and hitting the ball very well but, it was right at someone, so that would be a situation where OBP/SLG won’t always matter. Well in this case bad luck, but they were hitting well, just at someone.

Also “luck” could be Joey Votto’s night of 3 homers etc, then go into a short slump for example, one week player A has a great 7 day stats totals and then the next week of 7 day stats they may look like a Phillips or and Encarcion for examples from time to time.

RedsManRick
06-03-2008, 10:01 PM
You've got it, SF. Luck could be Dunn striking out with the bases loaded in the 4th and then hitting a solo HR in the 6th. For the most, the "when" of things happening is randomly distributed. On any given night you might string together 3 seeing eye singles or you might smash the ball at a guy each time.

The trick, as you point out, is to simply put guys in the order to maximize your chances.

Spring~Fields
06-03-2008, 10:08 PM
The trick, as you point out, is to simply put guys in the order to maximize your chances.

Or otherwise stated to maximiz the higher percentage of a higher probability of a good outcome or production. To work against that would be to work against ones self or in this case unintentionally set the team up to have fewer chances which can contribute and will to a lower percentage and probabitlity of good outcomes or production.

I wish that I was better with the question side of the Q&A but it tough doing this on the fly without preparation and giving it some time with thought and then ask or respond, almost like giving a depostion.........

Spring~Fields
06-04-2008, 01:19 AM
Bite your tounge :help:

Flash Update for Krono

Coming soon to a town near you.

Patterson Louisville CF/DH - .409 .435 .500 .935

:)

VR
06-04-2008, 01:19 AM
Flash Update for Krono

Coming soon to a town near you.

Patterson Louisville CF/DH - .409 .435 .500 .935

:)

prime time

Spring~Fields
06-04-2008, 01:21 AM
You've got it, SF. Luck could be Dunn striking out with the bases loaded in the 4th and then hitting a solo HR in the 6th. For the most, the "when" of things happening is randomly distributed. On any given night you might string together 3 seeing eye singles or you might smash the ball at a guy each time.

The trick, as you point out, is to simply put guys in the order to maximize your chances.

Here is what I get by OBP/SLG, I am wondering if you would have something about the same, though even with OBP/SLG it is not cut and dry, just as you were indicating.



OBP/SLG OBP/SLG
Vs. right handed pitchers Vs. left handed pitchers
Bruce .650 1.235 Bruce .692 .667
Dunn .405 .612 Hairston .500 .600
Ross .382 .321 Janish .417 .364
Bako .378 .424 Dunn .414 .423
Griffey .370 .443 Votto .412 .593
Hairston .329 .429 Phillips .397 .758
Votto .325 .470 Freel .388 .435
Phillips .310 .433 Encarncion .358 .390
Valentin .297 .314 Ross .357 .375
Freel .296 .288 Griffey .284 .297
Encarncion .287 .437 Valentin .250 .286
Janish .267 .214 Bako .220 .375
A. Phillips .667 .500 A. Phillips .000 .000

Lineup/RH Lineup/LH
Hairston .329 .429 Hairston .500 .600
Bruce .650 1.235 Phillips .397 .758
Dunn .405 .612 Bruce .692 .667
Griffey .370 .443 Dunn .414 .423
Votto .325 .470 Votto .412 .593
Phillips .310 .433 Freel .388 .435
Encarncion .287 .437 Encarncion .358 .390
Bako .378 .424 Ross .357 .375

redsrule2500
06-04-2008, 03:26 AM
Anyone else shocked at the reaction of Phillies fans to walking Jr??? Especially in a one run game!! :eek: Weird fans....

redsmetz
06-04-2008, 09:41 AM
Anyone else shocked at the reaction of Phillies fans to walking Jr??? Especially in a one run game!! :eek: Weird fans....

I think like many fans, folks want to see something historic; not to mention you often want to see pitchers and batters battle it out.

That said, it was the correct move for the Phillies. Griffey has owned Tom Gordon. I had just noticed yesterday that he was tied for second on the list of most home runs allowed by pitchers to Griffey [1st is David Wells at 8, Gordon is tied with Roger Clemens at 6 each].

In 48 AB's, he's hitting .292 off him with a .393 OBP, .688 SLG, 1.081 OPS. He has 1 double and six homers and 14 RBI's. That said, 1991 was the worst when Griffey went 4 for 8 and three homers.

I knew that if Gordon came in and we needed a pinch hitter, Griffey would be at the plate.

RedsManRick
06-04-2008, 12:06 PM
Anyone else shocked at the reaction of Phillies fans to walking Jr??? Especially in a one run game!! :eek: Weird fans....

A month from now, how many fans will remember the outcome of the game? The final score? A year from now? More?

Now what if Junior hits #600?

Easy choice for any fan.

Always Red
06-04-2008, 07:15 PM
http://www.thelotd.com/lance/blog



Things I'm told
Ken Griffey Jr had 44 c.c.'s of fluid drained from his knee. He received a cortisone shot a couple of days ago.

44 cc's of inflammatory fluid off my knee would give me "general soreness," too. :(

Spring~Fields
06-04-2008, 07:39 PM
http://www.thelotd.com/lance/blog




44 cc's of inflammatory fluid off my knee would give me soreness, too. :(

Doesn't that call for being sent home to have an MRI or to make sure that nothing really serious is wrong with his knee, obviously something is seriously amiss ? Doesn't that suggest something more serious than a common bumping of the knee on a desk?

Always Red
06-04-2008, 07:42 PM
Doesn't that call for being sent home to have an MRI or to make sure that nothing really serious is wrong with his knee, obviously something is seriously amiss ?

Maybe. I'm sure it was Doc Hollywood who did the draining. Maybe an MRI was done? McAlister doesn't say when the knee was drained, or maybe his source did not tell him that info.

IIRC, Junior is very secretive about his health status these days (as is his right to do with the media). Remember ST in 2007, and the questions over his wrist and how it was injured?

westofyou
06-04-2008, 07:44 PM
Water on the knee is a general term used to describe excess fluid that accumulates in or around your knee joint. Your doctor may refer to this condition as a knee "effusion." Painful knee effusions may be the result of trauma, overuse injuries or an underlying disease or condition.

The most common cause of water on the knee is osteoarthritis. Osteoarthritis is characterized by the breakdown of joint cartilage and may affect any joint in your body, including your hips, knees, lower back and feet.

The type of fluid that builds up in your knee depends on the underlying disease, condition or type of traumatic injury that causes excess fluid to build up. This joint (synovial) fluid may contain irritating crystals, bacteria or blood.

The pain and swelling associated with water on the knee don't have to limit your mobility. Once your doctor determines the cause of this condition, he or she can recommend self-care measures and treatment to keep you on the move.
Signs and symptoms

Signs and symptoms of water on the knee depend on the cause of excess fluid buildup in the knee joint. These may include:

* Pain. With osteoarthritis, pain occurs when bearing weight on your knees. The pain typically subsides with rest.
* Swelling. One knee may appear larger than the other. Puffiness around the bony parts of your knee appears prominent when compared with your other knee.
* Stiffness. When your knee joint contains excess fluid, your range of motion may be limited. In other words, you can't bend or straighten your knee as far as you normally can.
* Bruising. If you've injured your knee, you may note bruising on the front, sides or behind your knee. Bearing weight on your knee joint may be impossible and the pain unbearable.

Causes

Your knee is the most complex joint in your body. It functions like a hinge, allowing your knee to bend and straighten. Damage to any part of your knee can cause the painful build up of excess joint fluid. Examples of traumatic injuries that cause fluid buildup in and around the knee joint are:

* Broken bones (fractures)
* Meniscus tear
* Ligament tear
* Overuse injuries

Underlying diseases and conditions that may produce fluid buildup in and around the knee joint include:

* Osteoarthritis
* Rheumatoid arthritis
* Infection
* Gout
* Pseudogout
* Kneecap (prepatellar) bursitis
* Cysts
* Tumors

Risk factors

Having osteoarthritis or engaging in high-risk sports that involve rapid cut-and-run movements of the knee — football or tennis, for example — means you're more likely to develop water on the knee.

Spring~Fields
06-04-2008, 07:46 PM
Maybe. I'm sure it was Doc Hollywood who did the draining. Maybe an MRI was done? McAlister doesn't say when the knee was drained, or maybe his source did not tell him that info.

Sure, makes sense.


IIRC, Junior is very secretive about his health status these days (as is his right to do with the media). Remember ST in 2007, and the questions over his wrist and how it was injured?

I don't blame Junior for not wanting to feed the media.

Always Red
06-04-2008, 07:47 PM
Sure, makes sense.



I don't blame Junior for not wanting to feed the media.

Nor do I.

WebScorpion
06-05-2008, 12:57 PM
I had a fractured patella (kneecap) and burst bursa sac in my knee which after it healed, still caused me to have water on the knee whenever I put a lot of strain on the knee, (bowling, softball, volleyball, etc.) for several years. I rested it a lot, and still had to have it drained a couple times. Relatively speaking, it wasn't too painful...after it was drained it was great until it would swell up again. I can't imagine what it would be like if I had to play baseball at the ML level on it every day. :eek: http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/ad/stretcher.gif (http://www.freesmileys.org)