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OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 06:07 PM
Jay Bruce will be promoted to the Reds tomorrow. The corresponding roster to move will be announced then. That's all I've got for now.

http://beta.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=blog07&plckController=Blog&plckScript=blogScript&plckElementId=blogDest&plckBlogPage=BlogViewPost&plckPostId=Blog%3ae57bcc87-152a-4f72-96fb-cc08b1f396efPost%3a235d6af9-84c1-4d48-9162-1d7675474cca&sid=sitelife.cincinnati.com

Woohoo!!!!

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 06:08 PM
:jump:

but will he play everyday?

more moves to come? (as in DFA Patterson?)

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 06:10 PM
And the Reds had no idea when the Super Two date is ...

Great to see Bruce up though! Looks like I might be heading down to the game tomorrow, weather dependent obviously.

camisadelgolf
05-26-2008, 06:11 PM
This is great. This gives Baker less room to make mistakes.

Dunn, Bruce, Griffey, and Patterson (not to mention Chris Dickerson, Danny Dorn, Drew T. Anderson, etc.) . . . There has to be someone who needs a left-handed bat in the outfield.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:11 PM
It's about gosh darn farting time.

KronoRed
05-26-2008, 06:11 PM
Woo.

Lets hope the second half of this story is a Patterson DFA

MrCinatit
05-26-2008, 06:11 PM
but will he play everyday?

more moves to come? (as in DFA Patterson?)


We can only hope.
This is very good news. I suspect there might be a couple of more moves (perhaps pitching) coming up soon, as well. Let us hope this is only the beginning of a move in the right direction.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2008, 06:12 PM
Can someone tell me what his number will be? I'm ordering a jersey tonight.

And is there any chance that number will change?

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 06:12 PM
And the Reds had no idea when the Super Two date is ...

Great to see Bruce up though! Looks like I might be heading down to the game tomorrow, weather dependent obviously.

My dad and I are thinking of making the four hour drive tomorrow to watch him. The only problem is dad has to work plus he coaches my brother's baseball team so he's going to try to work something out so we can make the trip. Man am I pumped right now!

Ron Madden
05-26-2008, 06:12 PM
"Bout damn time! :thumbup: :beerme:

Now we get to see how Dusty uses him.

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 06:12 PM
Can someone tell me what his number will be? I'm ordering a jersey tonight.

And is there any chance that number will change?

#32.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:15 PM
Play him EVERY SINGLE DAY.....wherever.

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:16 PM
I'm thinking about going to the game tomorrow now. I'm thinking really hard. I got to see Edinson's Reds' debut, I'd love to see Bruce's MLB debut.

icehole3
05-26-2008, 06:17 PM
that number should be put on the outfield wall with the other Reds greats.

:)

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:17 PM
I'm thinking of going tomorrow now....we'll see

11larkin11
05-26-2008, 06:18 PM
If it wasn't for gas prices and me only being 17 on a school night before exams...I would definitely be there.

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:19 PM
If it wasn't for gas prices and me only being 17 on a school night before exams...I would definitely be there.

School exams come and go, there is only one Jay Bruce. ;)

NC Reds
05-26-2008, 06:19 PM
I am thrilled he is finally getting the call, but expectations need to be reasonable. He is just 21.

Patterson needs to go to the bench. Bruce for Patterson alone makes this a much better offensive team.

CTA513
05-26-2008, 06:19 PM
Keep him away from Farney

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 06:20 PM
may the Jay Bruce Facts commence... :)

Kc61
05-26-2008, 06:21 PM
Patterson CF
Hairston SS
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce -- ???
Cueto P

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:21 PM
Is this the biggest call up in Reds history?

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:21 PM
I am thrilled he is finally getting the call, but expectations need to be reasonable. He is just 21.



My expectations are reasonable. I remember that when Bruce was 19 he hit a ball so hard that it went through the first baseman's glove and the only person able to catch it was Jim Coombs who had to leap over the wall and do a triple lutz.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 06:22 PM
Patterson CF
Hairston SS
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce -- ???
Cueto P

I guess he is catching... ;)

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:22 PM
He better bat 1.000 ;)

Ron Madden
05-26-2008, 06:22 PM
Is this the biggest call up in Reds history?

Nahh.

11larkin11
05-26-2008, 06:22 PM
Defensive replacement for Dunn...

oneupper
05-26-2008, 06:23 PM
REDS are teasing me again.
...and I fall for it every time.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 06:23 PM
I am thrilled he is finally getting the call, but expectations need to be reasonable. He is just 21.

That's 21 in human years... ;)

CrackerJack
05-26-2008, 06:24 PM
that number should be put on the outfield wall with the other Reds greats.

:)

Isn't Bruce in the Reds HOF already? Now you want his # on the outfield wall? Demanding aren't we?

redsmetz
05-26-2008, 06:24 PM
School exams come and go, there is only one Jay Bruce. ;)

I just texted my son up at The OSU and he wrote back, "Come pick me up! We're going!" Na, probably not.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 06:25 PM
My dad and I are thinking of making the four hour drive tomorrow to watch him. The only problem is dad has to work plus he coaches my brother's baseball team so he's going to try to work something out so we can make the trip. Man am I pumped right now!

That's rough with the long drive since there's still no guarantees Bruce will be starting tomorrow. I'll be waiting until the lineups are up tomorrow before making the final decision to head down. He better be starting, but you never know what kind of Dustification the Reds will try to pass for not starting Bruce tomorrow.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:26 PM
Dusty may want to ease him into the lineup....after all, Corey Patterson's a stud.

PuffyPig
05-26-2008, 06:26 PM
Woo.

Lets hope the second half of this story is a Patterson DFA

More likely Valentin or Hatteberg I'd guess.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 06:27 PM
can he pitch on Wednesday to rest the rotation?

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 06:27 PM
Well, now I know what I'm doing tomorrow night.

mth123
05-26-2008, 06:27 PM
Patterson CF
Hairston SS
Griffey RF
Phillips 2B
Dunn LF
Encarnacion 3B
Votto 1B
Bruce -- ???
Cueto P

With Cueto on on the mound (or Harang or Arroyo):
Hairston SS
Dunn LF
Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Patterson CF
Any old stiff C

With Volquez or other ground ball guys:
Freel CF
Dunn LF
Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Janish SS
Any old stiff C

Flip flop Bruce and Phillips against a LHP. Bako is probably the best stiff of the moment to catch, but I'd be looking to upgrade by using some one's grandmother back there.

KittyDuran
05-26-2008, 06:28 PM
DustificationFor a split second I ALMOST looked that word up... :p:

KittyDuran
05-26-2008, 06:29 PM
With Cueto on on the mound (or Harang or Arroyo):
Hairston SS
Dunn LF
Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Patterson CF
Any old stiff C

With Volquez or other ground ball guys:
Freel CF
Dunn LF
Bruce RF
EdE 3B
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Janish SS
Any old stiff C

Flip flop Bruce and Phillips against a LHP. Bako is probably the best stiff of the moment to catch, but I'd be looking to upgrade by using some one's grandmother back there.So Junior gets the bench or the boot?

wheels
05-26-2008, 06:31 PM
Soooo....Who was right?

Who called it yesterday?

Oh yeah. The guy who's girlfriend's brother in law went to 31 flavors.

Oh..and Chip....

Face!:p:

mth123
05-26-2008, 06:32 PM
So Junior gets the bench or the boot?

Bench if he'll accept being a LHPH and DH in AL Parks. I'd peddle Hatte for peanuts to make room. Otherwise, send him to some place where he doesn't have to where a glove.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:32 PM
So Junior gets the bench or the boot?

Either one works for me

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:34 PM
I put Griffey at 1st, Votto in right, and Bruce in center with Patterson selling peanuts in the stand.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:35 PM
Walk up ticket sales just increased tomorrow.

Kc61
05-26-2008, 06:37 PM
So the mth suggested lineup has EE hitting cleanup. This subtle dig at Phillips is not exactly borne out by the statistics. EE has an OPS of .754. Phillips .882. People can spin this any way they want. They can use any stat line they want. Right now, EE is fortunate to be hitting sixth and Phillips is hitting like a powerhouse.

Realistically --

Hairston -- SS
Bruce -- CF
Griffey -- RF
Phillips -- 2B
Dunn -- LF
EE -- 3B
Votto -- 1B
Bako -- C
Pitcher

and againt lefties --

Same lineup except Ross catches and hits eighth.

And sometimes against lefties Griffey should sit --

Freel -- CF
Janish -- SS
Bruce -- CF
Phillips -- 2b
Dunn -- LF
EE -- 3B
Votto -- 1B
Ross -- C

With Bruce the Reds need to sign Dunn and add a righty power hitting outfielder (center or right) and a good catcher. And bring up the young arms as they develop. And then you have a team.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 06:38 PM
Soooo....Who was right?

Who called it yesterday?

I called it 12 days ago on May 14th. ;)

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1630289&postcount=148


I'd be shocked if the Reds don't hold out to clear Super Two status since it's already mid May and there's very little time remaining. By my calculations, it looks like the "safe" date to call Bruce up would be May 24th, a Saturday when the Reds are in San Diego. If they waited that long then they'd likely then elect to hold off until returning home on Tuesday, May 27th when the Pirates roll in.

The_jbh
05-26-2008, 06:38 PM
Alright!!!

I have to disagree with DFAing Patterson tho... for one financially its redic. Plus we need a natural CF on the bench. He'll provide a solid late inning defensive replacement for Griffey or Dunn (pushing Bruce to LF or RF and Pat in CF) plus some pop on the bench.

i think I am going to go buy tickets during my lunch break downtown tomorrow!

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:43 PM
Are Patterson and Freel the most expensive bench players in MLB?

oneupper
05-26-2008, 06:43 PM
Can someone post Bruce's numbers with the bats?

mth123
05-26-2008, 06:44 PM
I put Griffey at 1st, Votto in right, and Bruce in center with Patterson selling peanuts in the stand.

Griffey at 1B is something I proposed last year. He still has defensive instincts and decent hands, he just can't move or throw. If his legs would allow it, I think he could be good there. I wonder if the stretch would be too hard on his legs.

Votto in RF does nothing to solve the team's biggest problem. You would simply be replacing one poor OF for another and one plus defender for another. For this team to improve, it needs to replace a poor defender with a plus defender.

I leave Votto alone. Griffey has to step aside for this to be the maximum benefit, but Bruce for Patterson would be a big offensive improvement. It would not help the defense and would expose Bruce to a lot of wear and tear. IMO the team improves more and Bruce is better served by him playing RF.

Matt700wlw
05-26-2008, 06:45 PM
From the press release:

He has spent the season at Louisville, where in 49 games he hit .364 with 9 doubles, 5 triples, 10 HR, 37 RBI and 8 stolen bases. He leads the International League in hitting and hits (67) and ranks among the IL leaders in slugging percentage (.630, 3rd), runs scored (34, 4th), extra-base hits (24, T4th) and RBI (T5th).

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:45 PM
Can someone post Bruce's numbers with the bats?


Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
LOU INT .364 49 184 34 67 9 5 10 37 116 12 45 8 1 .393 .630 1.023
Minors .364 49 184 34 67 9 5 10 37 116 12 45 8 1 .393 .630 1.023

Ron Madden
05-26-2008, 06:46 PM
Just wait "till Marty B. and Prose14 see this kids strikeout rate.

:lol: :evil:

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 06:46 PM
Are Patterson and Freel the most expensive bench players in MLB?

Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be able to erase Patterson off that list.

Corey Patterson needs to take his .242 on-base percentage with him and immediately walk the plank toward DFA land and never return. If the Reds put up a bulletin asking for people volunteering to throw Patterson's bags into the Ohio River, I'd be getting in the car right now to head down to GABP to take them up on the offer.

HokieRed
05-26-2008, 06:48 PM
If I were Jocketty, I'd DFA Patterson immediately as a way of making a statement. And Belisle and Fogg would be not far behind. It's time for change.

oneupper
05-26-2008, 06:48 PM
Thanks SAVA...

How fast is Bruce? 5 triples and 8 SB suggests he is quite..

11larkin11
05-26-2008, 06:48 PM
Just wait "till Marty B. and Prose14 see this kids strikeout rate.

:lol: :evil:

Hahahahahahaha, Prose14, its been a few years since I've been over to the reds.com board.

Chip R
05-26-2008, 06:50 PM
Soooo....Who was right?

Who called it yesterday?

Oh yeah. The guy who's girlfriend's brother in law went to 31 flavors.

Oh..and Chip....

Face!:p:


:)

CTA513
05-26-2008, 06:51 PM
RHP Ian Snell is pitching tomorrow, does anyone think Bruce might get a chance to start?
After facing Snell they face 4 lefties in a row.

AmarilloRed
05-26-2008, 06:51 PM
Dusty is still the manager. Baker can't seem to take Patterson out of the starting lineup. I will believe Patterson is D'FA'd when I see it.Good news however, and I hope Jay shows all of us a lot this year.

mth123
05-26-2008, 06:51 PM
So the suggested lineup has EE hitting cleanup. Fraid not.

Realistically --

Hairston -- SS
Bruce -- CF
Griffey -- RF
Phillips (who happens to be hitting a ton) 2B
Dunn -- LF
EE -- 3B
Votto -- 1B
Bako -- C
Pitcher

and againt lefties --

Same lineup except Ross catches and hits eighth.

And sometimes against lefties Griffey should sit --

Freel -- CF
Janish -- SS
Bruce -- CF
Phillips -- 2b
Dunn -- LF
EE -- 3B
Votto -- 1B
Ross -- C

With Bruce the Reds need to sign Dunn and add a righty power hitting outfielder (center or right) and a good catcher. And bring up the young arms as they develop. And then you have a team.

I like the line-up and team better when Griffey sits. I agree that Flip Flopping Phillips and EE while Phillips is hot and EE is slumping is a good idea. Generally though, EE is better suited for cleaning up than Phillips. Phillips speed is of better use lower in the order where the bottom of the order guys won't likely be pitched around if he steals second and opens first base. Batting in the middle he doesn't need to steal to get in scoring position. At the bottom its necessary to have some one who can move themselves along the bases in front of the weaker hitters.

Unassisted
05-26-2008, 06:52 PM
that number should be put on the outfield wall with the other Reds greats.

:)Right next to Brandon Larson's number. ;)

savafan
05-26-2008, 06:56 PM
Right next to Brandon Larson's number. ;)

Brandon Larson's number isn't on the wall, it's written in the third stall in section 218. :D

Degenerate39
05-26-2008, 07:21 PM
The second I saw this thread title I couldn't help but raise my arms in the arm. I hope this is the end of Patterson as a Red.

Tommyjohn25
05-26-2008, 07:24 PM
This is the thread title I've been waiting to log on and see! There are a couple other moves still to go but this was the biggie.

Good day today. No work, cookout, hit the pool, and Bruce gets the call.

mth123
05-26-2008, 07:25 PM
The second I saw this thread title I couldn't help but raise my arms in the arm. I hope this is the end of Patterson as a Red.

I'm all for Patterson being let go if Dickerson, Cumberland or Strait is called up too. But Bruce needs to move Griffey aside.

HumnHilghtFreel
05-26-2008, 07:25 PM
I approve of this move.

PuffyPig
05-26-2008, 07:26 PM
Bruce is not being brought up to sit on the bench.

He will start in CF. Tomorrow.

reds44
05-26-2008, 07:26 PM
I was out and I got a call from my dad. I'm stoked right now. I want to say that I hope it's one of the catchers and not Patterson, but I have no faith in Dusty using CPatt right.

In any event, great news. Can't wait to see the kid play.

Degenerate39
05-26-2008, 07:27 PM
This is the thread title I've been waiting to log on and see! There are a couple other moves still to go but this was the biggie.

Good day today. No work, cookout, hit the pool, and Bruce gets the call.

The majority of us have been waiting for the thread title all year I'm sure. Man this is a heck of a way to wake up from a nap.

reds44
05-26-2008, 07:32 PM
Fay seems to think Patterson is going to get the boot.


Jay Bruce will be promoted to the Reds tomorrow. The corresponding roster move will be announced then. That's all I've got for now. I've got calls out to Bruce and Walt Jocketty. My guess is move will involve Corey Patterson.

Raisor
05-26-2008, 07:39 PM
If he's in center, he's leading off. I have no problem with either.


Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
Eddie
Votto
Junior
Bako
Janish

Keep it like that until Kepp gets back, or a trade happens, see what happens.

reds44
05-26-2008, 07:46 PM
If he's in center, he's leading off. I have no problem with either.


Bruce
Phillips
Dunn
Eddie
Votto
Junior
Bako
Janish

Keep it like that until Kepp gets back, or a trade happens, see what happens.
I just see Hairston at the top of the lineup.

Bruce
Hairston
Griffey
Phillips
Dunn
Edwin
Votto
Catcher

is what Dusty will do.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 07:52 PM
Just as I thought. A lot of teeth-gnashing for nothing.

guttle11
05-26-2008, 07:54 PM
I just peed a little.

Not really.

No, really.

vaticanplum
05-26-2008, 07:57 PM
:)

Jay Bruce will not save this team. But a little bit of sunshine in the midst of this godforsaken season will be sunshine enough for a bit.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:01 PM
:)

Jay Bruce will not save this team. But a little bit of sunshine in the midst of this godforsaken season will be sunshine enough for a bit.

Jay won't save it; Dusty won't sink it.

Either way, neither one will be liked very much unless they are *absolutely, impregnably, unassailably perfect.*

That you can count on. Welcome to the Dark Ages, Jay.

cincrazy
05-26-2008, 08:09 PM
I week and a half ago my boss received 4 free tickets to tonight's game and asked me to go with her. And whaddya know, it's Jay Bruce's debut!!!

The perfect script for tomorrow night would be two home run's from The Kid and a homer from the new kid on the block in his first at bat :). Asking for a bit much, I know. But one can dream.

vaticanplum
05-26-2008, 08:11 PM
Jay won't save it; Dusty won't sink it.

Either way, neither one will be liked very much unless they are *absolutely, impregnably, unassailably perfect.*

That you can count on. Welcome to the Dark Ages, Jay.

There's no doubt that Dusty has turned into something of a scapegoat for a team that has a lot of problems. But a lot of his decisions at this point are unquestionably indefensible. Unreasonable expectations don't help see this team in an accurate light, but nor does refusing to admit where he has really damaged this team.

Spring~Fields
05-26-2008, 08:12 PM
Great to see Jocketty moving forward.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:18 PM
There's no doubt that Dusty has turned into something of a scapegoat for a team that has a lot of problems. But a lot of his decisions at this point are unquestionably indefensible. Unreasonable expectations don't help see this team in an accurate light, but nor does refusing to admit where he has really damaged this team.

I don't see where he's "damaged" the team. I can count the number of questionable decisions he's made so far on one hand.

Ron Madden
05-26-2008, 08:25 PM
I don't see where he's "damaged" the team. I can count the number of questionable decisions he's made so far on one hand.

Is that one hand gripping a calculator? ;)

:evil:

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:26 PM
Is that one hand gripping a calculator? ;)

:evil:

No. Aspirin.

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 08:26 PM
Forgive me for my skepticism, but I think Bruce will only be starting about 4 days a week. Expect a lot of Freel at 3B when Bruce does start as Dusty will want to have both a leadoff guy and a #2 hitter.

cumberlandreds
05-26-2008, 08:29 PM
I really hope they play him everyday. You will never know how good he can be if he doesn't. I don't care who they drop to bring him up. Just as long as he plays everyday.
Congrats to Bruce on making the big time! Here's to a great career! :beerme:

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:29 PM
Forgive me for my skepticism, but I think Bruce will only be starting about 4 days a week. Expect a lot of Freel at 3B when Bruce does start as Dusty will want to have both a leadoff guy and a #2 hitter.

Well, your skepticism also said Bruce wouldn't be up, either, so....

I'll take Jocketty at his word when he said he'd be an everyday player when he was brought up.

cincrazy
05-26-2008, 08:30 PM
Forgive me for my skepticism, but I think Bruce will only be starting about 4 days a week. Expect a lot of Freel at 3B when Bruce does start as Dusty will want to have both a leadoff guy and a #2 hitter.

Maybe the Reds can bring back the vaunted "hit out of order" strategy, so that Bruce can hit 1-9 :thumbup:

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:36 PM
About time.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:38 PM
About time.

In a lost season, protecting Bruce's Super Two status is the way to go. You'll be praising their restraint in a year or two.

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:44 PM
Nope. Will not.

Nothing was "lost" about this season at the beginning. Heck, it's not lost now. I simply refuse to accept that foisting horrible baseball on the team and fanbase to save a few dollars and hold back a guy that was clearly ready to help this team be better than it has been was worth it. I just don't.

This whole things hasn't been about money. Jock made a good point on that, as they have carried Cueto all year, not worrying about his "Super 2" status. No, this has been about inflicting Corey Patterson on the fan base. It has been about bending over backward to preserve Jr.'s feelings as he ruins this team in RF. It has been about watching plentiful at-bats wasted in the 1st and 3rd spots in the line-up, and balls go falling gently into RF in front of the statue that is Jr., for reasons that have nothing to do with money, and everything to do with prolonged horrible baseball judgement and deference to guys that the manager is familiar with and respects.

No more, no less.

So, yeah, "about time". And then some.

I don't expect Bruce to "save" this team or this season, I simply expect him to be a marked improvement over the absolute dreck that has been passed off as major league caliber and has held him in AAA against all logic and reason for two months.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:45 PM
Nope. Will not.

Nothing was "lost" about this season at the beginning. Heck, it's not lost now. I simply refuse to accept that foisting horrible baseball on the team and fanbase to save a few dollars and hold back a guy that was clearly ready to help this team be better than it has been was worth it. I just don't.

This whole things hasn't been about money. Jock made a good point on that, as they have carried Cueto all year, not worrying about his "Super 2" status. No, this has been about inflicting Corey Patterson on the fan base. It has been about bending over backward to preserve Jr.'s feelings as he ruins this team in RF. It has been about watching plentiful at-bats wasted in the 1st and 3rd spots in the line-up, and balls go falling gently into RF in front of the statue that is Jr., for reasons that have nothing to do with money, and everything to do with prolonged horrible baseball judgement and deference to guys that the manager is familiar with and respects.

No more, no less.

So, yeah, "about time". And then some.

I don't expect Bruce to "save" this team or this season, I simply expect him to be a marked improvement over the absolute dreck that has been passed off as major league caliber and has held him in AAA against all logic and reason for two months.

14 out 15 in the NL in pitching.

This season is beyond lost.

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:47 PM
Nowhere to go but up. We've been down this road before, you and I, and I still agree to disagree. With Volquez and Harang anchoring the top of this staff, and Arroyo trending back to his norms, they are better than their overall numbers have shown so far.

Better defense overall, and a more consistent offense would do wonders for this team. Getting Bruce up here is an obvious step in that direction. It has taken FAR too long to make that step. About time.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:49 PM
Nowhere to go but up. We've been down this road before, you and I, and I still agree to disagree. With Volquez and Harang anchoring the top of this staff, and Arroyo trending back to his norms, they are better than their overall numbers have shown so far.

Better defense overall, and a more consistent offense would do wonders for this team. Getting Bruce up here is an obvious step in that direction. It has taken FAR too long to make that step. About time.

You've watched this team for the last decade, and you still say, "Nowhere to go but up"?

Seriously?

Who do the Reds have to call up? How exactly has Arroyo trended anywhere but down the last 5 or 6 months of pitching he's thrown over two seasons? Does Cueto show any signs of "improvement"? Aside from Cordero and occasionally Affeldt, who inspires confidence in this pen?

mth123
05-26-2008, 08:50 PM
Fay seems to think Patterson is going to get the boot.

I understand everyone's joy at Bruce replacing Patterson. He will improve the offense immensely. But there will be no upgrade on defense and no domino effect that it would create on the pitching staff. Bruce for Griffey would improve the offense too, IMO. Maybe not as much as Bruce for Patterson, but, IMO, the defensive and resulting pitching improvement will have a greater overall effect on improving the team than simply upgrading the offense. Bruce will no doubt be better than Patterson, but he has the potential to be OBP challenged as well. The real gains that are to be made here are on the defensive, run prevention side. Leaving Griffey in the line-up punts all that away.

Bruce' legs better be in shape if he is to play between Griffey and Dunn. I hope it doesn't sap his strength on offense. Leg drive is important at the plate.

The Baumer
05-26-2008, 08:51 PM
Just as I thought. A lot of teeth-gnashing for nothing.

LOL! Sometimes I forget how dumb we are, you remind us.

Does anyone really think Jay Bruce "legs" will hold up playing everyday? I mean he has had his "share" of "leg issues" in the minors.

gm
05-26-2008, 08:51 PM
What a slacker, Jay Bruce hasn't updated his yardbarker page since Feb 19, where are his priorities?

(All it took was an 18-inning setback to finally get Walt O'Jocketty off the pot)

Will it be the Dunn-Bruce-Griffey "shop at the Gap" OF the Pirates face tomorrow night?

(I dont expect either Adam or Junior to be taking the night off...)

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:52 PM
FCB:

Seriously.

At no point in the last decade have I seen arms arrive in Cincy like have landed here in 2008. I am sanguine about what has transpired so far, but then again, my prediction for this season was 81 wins. They can still do that. In fact, I fully expect them to.

The bones of a good staff are in place. They need to get rid of some obvious driftwood and keep bringing along the real talent that is close, and make some more deals that emphasize quality arms in return and the corner that is currently being turned will actually get turned. Watch and see.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:54 PM
FCB:

Seriously.

At no point in the last decade have I seen arms arrive in Cincy like have landed here in 2008. I am sanguine about what has transpired so far, but then again, my prediction for this season was 81 wins. They can still do that. In fact, I fully expect them to.

The bones of a good staff are in place. They need to get rid of some obvious driftwood and keep bringing along the real talent that is close, and make some more deals that emphasize quality arms in return and the corner that is currently being turned will actually get turned. Watch and see.

If the Reds pitching turns around it will be because Jocketty got aggressive and did what he's done so many times in the past.

WVRedsFan
05-26-2008, 08:55 PM
I don't see where he's "damaged" the team. I can count the number of questionable decisions he's made so far on one hand.

It has to be Dusty, FCB. The players are wonderful...except for Griffey. He's fodder. :)

deltachi8
05-26-2008, 08:55 PM
In a lost season, protecting Bruce's Super Two status is the way to go. You'll be praising their restraint in a year or two.

That is something I can agree with.

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:56 PM
FCB: Fair enough. I hope he does. The pieces are around for him to make deals and get rid of driftwood and add on to what is here. So, make deals, Walt. Get to it. I am waiting. But Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Cordero is a nice base to add onto. Heck, Arroyo/Burton/Bray are useful pieces. Beyond that, it gets iffy.

So, yeah, get to work Walt. I am waiting. But it is NOT building from nothing. Far from it. Some heavy lifting has already been done. Now he needs to help move some of the next pieces into place.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:57 PM
LOL! Sometimes I forget how dumb we are, you remind us.

When I picture you, the mental image I get is of a chubby Mii covered in Band of Horses stickers.

membengal
05-26-2008, 08:57 PM
That is something I can agree with.

As noted above from me, for all of the reasons I have laid out, you will NEVER hear me praise their "restraint" if it had to do with the Super 2 thing.

As I noted above, I actually do NOT think it had a thing to do with Super 2...

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 08:58 PM
Fair enough. I hope he does. The pieces are around for him to make deals and get rid of driftwood and add on to what is here. So, make deals, Walt. Get to it. I am waiting. But Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Cordero is a nice base to add onto. Heck, Arroyo/Burton/Bray are useful pieces. Beyond that, it gets iffy.

So, yeah, get to work Walt. I am waiting. But it is NOT building from nothing. Far from it. Some heavy lifting has already been done. Now he needs to help move some of the next pieces into place.

Dude, it's awfully close to nothing; it's two starters, a closer, and an empty cupboard in the minors.

Patrick Bateman
05-26-2008, 09:00 PM
In a lost season, protecting Bruce's Super Two status is the way to go. You'll be praising their restraint in a year or two.

Agreed.... looking at Braun's contract, the super two is worth 6M, and that's on a discounted contract. For a player of this magnitude, holding Bruce back a month could be worth in the 8-10M range. With this team's many problems, that seems like a pretty nice trade off for the Reds IMO.

membengal
05-26-2008, 09:01 PM
Nope, 3 starters (and Volquez and Harang are All-star quality), a closer, and some useful set-up guys.

The cupboard is FAR from empty in the minors, Thompson is about half a year away. Bailey is still a possible help at some point (or, if Walt is as good as I hope he is, a piece to be shined up and sent somewhere for more help for this team), and there are others that are coursing up behind those two. Maloney actually should be here now in place of Belisle in the rotation, with Belisle to the pen and Fogg to the next boat out of town to wherever.

It's closer than you think it is FCB. Again, watch and see.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 09:02 PM
It's closer than you think it is FCB. Again, watch and see.

I'll see, but it will be Jocketty's revamping that gets it done, if it indeed gets done. (Cueto's at least two or three years from really contributing, if ever).

Stormy
05-26-2008, 09:03 PM
You've watched this team for the last decade, and you still say, "Nowhere to go but up"?

Seriously?

Who do the Reds have to call up? How exactly has Arroyo trended anywhere but down the last 5 or 6 months of pitching he's thrown over two seasons? Does Cueto show any signs of "improvement"? Aside from Cordero and occasionally Affeldt, who inspires confidence in this pen?

I figured that his last 4 starts of 2.05ERA 26.1IP 26K 9BB ball would qualify is trending in a positive direction. Add that to Harang's and Volquez's demonstrated dominance, and Cueto's likely progression, and we are in a nice situation with the future of our rotation barring injury.

membengal
05-26-2008, 09:03 PM
Cueto is contributing now, FCB. He's a fifth starter at this point in his career, and has been very useful already at that spot.

The staff needs more help. It better come from Jocketty, because he is here now, but no way do I think WK thought it was a finished product yet. But WK had made some nice deals to get it to this point. So Jocketty very much needs to build on that. I hope he does.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 09:04 PM
I figured that his last 4 starts of 2.05ERA 26.1IP 26K 9BB ball would qualify is trending in a positive direction.

Two of his three good starts came against garbage offenses.

membengal
05-26-2008, 09:05 PM
Nevertheless, good starts.

Look, if Jock is up to his old tricks, he will turn Arroyo into some younger arms for this team in a month or so. I hope he does.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 09:07 PM
Look, if Jock is up to his old tricks, he will turn Arroyo into some younger arms for this team in a month or so. I hope he does.

And how.

I'd like to see the trio of EdE, Arroyo, and Griffey long gone. The first two could really bring back something of value.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 09:08 PM
I simply refuse to accept that foisting horrible baseball on the team and fanbase to save a few dollars and hold back a guy that was clearly ready to help this team be better than it has been was worth it. I just don't.

This whole things hasn't been about money. Jock made a good point on that, as they have carried Cueto all year, not worrying about his "Super 2" status.

mem, if you truly believe this wasn't about money then I've got a lot of things I can sell ya right now. ;)

Cueto was brought north with the club immediately because of a few different factors, namely A) he was dominant in spring training, and B) the Reds were lacking starting pitching options given Belisle's injury and Bailey uhhhh ... fill in the blank here.

If the Reds were in a situation in spring training where they were lacking outfielders and Bruce was dominating, then yes he'd have been brought north with the club, same as Cueto, and there wouldn't have been anything wrong with that decision. But neither of those happened, and while myself and many others don't give a rats tail about spring training stats, it's obvious that in Reds land spring training stats are used as a Dustification for making the roster. And I know how you feel about Corey Patterson, because I feel the same way, but even without Patterson the Reds could easily have played Freel regularly in center field. The Reds simply weren't lacking in outfielders the way they were with starting pitchers in spring training.

Also, remember this: Bruce struggled very early in the season down in Louisville. It's difficult to remember, but his first two weeks or so weren't all that great. Then he caught fire in late April and got even hotter once May began. That's when the cat calls to get Bruce up starting get loud, and by that point the amount of time until he was going to clear Super Two status was just a couple weeks.

Once the team was committed to keeping Bruce in Louisville through April, then there's zero reason whatsoever not to hold out an additional few weeks to get through the Super Two date. I'll put it to you this way: if less than a month of Jay Bruce is worth $6+ million, then what's a full season of Adam Dunn worth?

lollipopcurve
05-26-2008, 09:09 PM
Two of his three good starts came against garbage offenses.

Doing what a good pitcher should do against a weak team. Everyone pitches against them.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 09:10 PM
Doing what a good pitcher should do against a weak team. Every pitches against them.

I'm saying he didn't pitch well against those bad teams, but I fail to see those starts as a happy omen.

The Baumer
05-26-2008, 09:11 PM
When I picture you, the mental image I get is of a chubby Mii covered in Band of Horses stickers.

Please tell me your pants are on when you do this. :eek:

HotCorner
05-26-2008, 09:12 PM
Sweet! I had a good feeling that he might be called up today so I picked him up in my ESPN league yesterday.

alexad
05-26-2008, 09:12 PM
I am watching Louisville right now. Great to hear about Bruce. Mercker pitched the first inning and looked sharp. Threw 91. He looks ready for 9
Cincy.

PuffyPig
05-26-2008, 09:14 PM
Two of his three good starts came against garbage offenses.

But some of his bad games came against great offenses, so surely they should cancel out.

So, for the season, cancelling out good/bad games against good/bad offenses, he's pitched 9 innings and given up 4 runs.

Same as last year. Except last year, he had 15 innings that counted.

membengal
05-26-2008, 09:15 PM
Cyclone:

I have been plenty vocal elsewhere about my displeasure about how the whole thing went down with Bruce. It became apparent VERY quickly into April that this team was being hurt by not having him up. Certainly by late April it was clear.

IF it was money (and I certainly accept that was probably it), then I remain in firm disagreement with the club on that. Damaging yet another season and inflicting more active trauma in the form of CP in center and leading off and Jr. in RF and waving at balls not hit right at him on a fanbase already in long-term therapy for PTSD was dumb. Flat-line dumb. All-time dumb.

Cast wants to know where the fans are? They are at home, trying to make the lambs stop their screaming. They open their eyes after their latest therapy, see C Patt willie mays hayes another pop up to short lf, and the lambs start their screaming all over again.

But, hey, sure, if it saved the Reds a few million down the road, that was probably worth it, right?

Or, not. I stay with "not".

RedsManRick
05-26-2008, 09:15 PM
Well, your skepticism also said Bruce wouldn't be up, either, so....

I'll take Jocketty at his word when he said he'd be an everyday player when he was brought up.

This is true. I'm happy to be wrong and will continue to enjoy being proven so. I guess we'll see how much Jocketty has to say about the starting eight. It will be interesting to see what Dusty does with the lineup.

It's got to be Patterson or Valentin sent out, right?

Stormy
05-26-2008, 09:25 PM
And how.

I'd like to see the trio of EdE, Arroyo, and Griffey long gone. The first two could really bring back something of value.

I completely agree on BA, though I might not have felt the same way last year at this point because we had no productive replacements in sight. If you can get another 3-4 consecutive exceptional starts from Arroyo he should become one of the more coveted trading deadline arms, and it's time for Walt's first major deal. We have PLENTY of needs. With Harang, Volquez and Cueto, I feel pretty solid about the future front 3/5 of the rotation, with or without Arroyo.

deltachi8
05-26-2008, 09:26 PM
How can it (keeping Bruce in AAA until May 26) damage a season for a team that with or without him won't make the playoffs?

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 09:28 PM
Cyclone:

I have been plenty vocal elsewhere about my displeasure about how the whole thing went down with Bruce. It became apparent VERY quickly into April that this team was being hurt by not having him up. Certainly by late April it was clear.

IF it was money (and I certainly accept that was probably it), then I remain in firm disagreement with the club on that. Damaging yet another season and inflicting more active trauma in the form of CP in center and leading off and Jr. in RF and waving at balls not hit right at him on a fanbase already in long-term therapy for PTSD was dumb. Flat-line dumb. All-time dumb.

Cast wants to know where the fans are? They are at home, trying to make the lambs stop their screaming. They open their eyes after their latest therapy, see C Patt willie mays hayes another pop up to short lf, and the lambs start their screaming all over again.

But, hey, sure, if it saved the Reds a few million down the road, that was probably worth it, right?

Or, not. I stay with "not".

Well is it worth it if the millions the Reds save are applied to a long-term deal for Adam Dunn?

Here, I'll put a condition on my stance: if the Reds give Adam Dunn away in a trade or let him walk for draft picks, then I'll side with your stance. But if the Reds ink Adam Dunn to a long-term deal, you better bet that a good portion of Dunn's 2011 salary will be the chunk the Reds will be saving on Jay Bruce that season.

One of the primary factors that goes into a decision on when to call a Jay Bruce up is laying out the budget in future seasons. You can't just start throwing money around today that is earmarked for three or four seasons in the future just to satisfy a very short term gain right now of only a few weeks. Those are serious financial blunders, ones in which an intelligent organization does not make. The Reds - or more accurately, Wayne Krivsky - made a number of stupid financial decisions, including Corey Patterson, but that doesn't mean they should continue to make stupid financial decisions.

At some point sound financial decision-making is going to have to start happening on a regular basis, and hopefully this is a sign that this is what we're going to get from Jocketty. Walt's not merely molding the team for the remainder of 2008; he's going to be making decisions that set the foundation for 2009 and beyond ... even up to and beyond the 2011 season. These decisions are going to have to be smart decisions, and blowing $6+ million in 2011 for two weeks of Jay Bruce this season just isn't a sound financial decision.

Chip R
05-26-2008, 09:41 PM
It's got to be Patterson or Valentin sent out, right?


Or Hatteberg.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 09:41 PM
Cueto's at least two or three years from really contributing, if ever

I'm glad we have you to keep things in perspective... ;)

BuckeyeRedleg
05-26-2008, 09:42 PM
Even if the Super Two status would have bitten them in the butt in three years for 6M, they could have accepted it and not paid Corey Patterson 3M.

So Bruce is up in April, and NO Patterson, costs this organization 3 Million three years later. Whippittydoo.

A small price to pay, especially considering how they have thrown millions away on garbage every year (Stanton, Cormier, Castro, etc).

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 09:43 PM
Who do the Reds have to call up? How exactly has Arroyo trended anywhere but down the last 5 or 6 months of pitching he's thrown over two seasons? Does Cueto show any signs of "improvement"? Aside from Cordero and occasionally Affeldt, who inspires confidence in this pen?

1.) They just called up a guy that should, if everything goes to plan, solidify the #3 spot in the order and correct major defensive deficiencies in either CF or RF (depending how he is deployed).

From where I'm sitting, that's 1 spot out of 25 that is now fixed for the next 6 years, minimum.

2.) Anyone who expected Cueto to immediately be a dominant pitcher as a rookie was kidding themselves or drinking Kool Aid with WAYYY too much sugar. What he is doing right now is expected, and should have been anticipated by most.

Talk to me about "improvement" -- or lack thereof -- at the end of the season.

3.) Affeldt, Burton and Cordero are all about the same on the "Confidence-O-Meter" for me. Bullpen pitching is notoriously difficult to judge. Guys come out of nowhere to be good bullpen arms and then fade back to nothingness just as quickly. Hopefully Jocketty will be better at judging that in the future -- his run in St. Louis indicates to me that he knows the right places to look.

4.) Arroyo trended down because, literally, after his first campaign through the NL he had nowhere to go BUT down. He is what he is -- a good #4 guy on a good rotation, an OK #3 on a bad rotation. I'm not going to cry a single tear about him being on the team.

If he can be shopped for better players, I'm all for that. I also wouldn't be against going into the 2009 season with him in the rotation as long as we're looking at him as a role player and not a savior or anchor on the staff.

Jocketty has work to do with this team, but he's not in bad shape at all, IMO. This team is bad, but there are enough good young players that are just beginning their major league careers that he shouldn't have to do a total rebuild.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 09:44 PM
Even if the Super Two status would have bitten them in the butt in three years for 6M, they could have accepted it and not paid Corey Patterson 3M.

So Bruce is up in April, and NO Patterson, costs this organization 3 Million three years later. Whippittydoo.

A small price to pay, especially considering how they have thrown 2 million here and 3 milliion there every year on garbage.

Well right, that's the ideal situation. It's precisely what I would have done myself.

But a now unemployed general manager blew a wad on Corey Patterson in March, and by the time the new general manager was in charge that wad was blown and Bruce was only a few weeks away from clearing Super Two.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-26-2008, 09:48 PM
Well right, that's the ideal situation. It's precisely what I would have done myself.

But a now unemployed general manager blew a wad on Corey Patterson in March, and by the time the new general manager was in charge that wad was blown and Bruce was only a few weeks away from clearing Super Two.


It just further demonstrates the incompetence of one Wayne Krivsky.

KronoRed
05-26-2008, 09:49 PM
Fay seems to think Patterson is going to get the boot.

Lets hope so, OF for OF, and Dusty will want to give Patterson starts if he's still here :help:

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 09:50 PM
It just further demonstrates the incompetence of one Wayne Krivsky.

I only hold Wayne 50% negligent on that front. He was told, in no uncertain terms, to get Corey Patterson inked to a deal because Dusty Baker wanted him on the team.

You think Corey's agent, when the Reds came calling, didn't figure out what was going on?

Phhhl
05-26-2008, 09:52 PM
My dad and I are thinking of making the four hour drive tomorrow to watch him. The only problem is dad has to work plus he coaches my brother's baseball team so he's going to try to work something out so we can make the trip. Man am I pumped right now!

OBM, no offense. But, ask your dad to coach those kids instead of going to the Reds' game. Maybe one of those kids is the next Jay Bruce, but probably only if they have mentors who prioritize them and dedicate themselves to show up, throw bp, etc...

I see all these soccer fields replacing baseball diamonds all over town, and youth baseball is imperative to keeping the game alive. My coach used to cuss like a marine, make us run laps and dress us down when we made a stupid error. But we loved him because he was there three nights a week throwing 250 pitches of batting practice after working 10 hour shifts in a sweat shop. He never missed a practice or a game, much less to go watch a major league baseball game.

OldRightHander
05-26-2008, 09:54 PM
Keep him away from Farney

Keep him away from Ray King.

OldRightHander
05-26-2008, 09:54 PM
I picked a bad time to be in Arkansas.

KronoRed
05-26-2008, 09:59 PM
It just further demonstrates the incompetence of one Wayne Krivsky.

How so? Walt certainly didn't seem to be a rush to dump Corey or get Bruce up here, my guess is Bruce would be coming in on the same day of Wayne were still here.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 09:59 PM
I only hold Wayne 50% negligent on that front. He was told, in no uncertain terms, to get Corey Patterson inked to a deal because Dusty Baker wanted him on the team.

You think Corey's agent, when the Reds came calling, didn't figure out what was going on?

One of the two reasons I want Patterson gone tomorrow is that it helps signify the fact that this is Jocketty's team (the other reason is obvious: Patterson stinks). If Patterson is gone then it means Jocketty is using his newfound leverage to mold the team his way, not Dusty's way, not Bob's way, not anybody else's way.

Given that Jocketty didn't even want the general manager's job in the first place and had to be persuaded by Bob, he should have all sorts of leverage that Wayne Krivsky never had. He should have the type of leverage to say "Dusty, I don't think so" when Dusty is clamoring for his next speedy out machine to put at the top of the lineup.

The good thing about Bob finally getting his man Jocketty in the general manager's office is that Bob should hopefully leave Walt alone to do his job, no matter what Dusty is clamoring for. Whether that turns out to be true or not is undetermined, but that's the hope right now.

BuckeyeRedleg
05-26-2008, 10:06 PM
How so?

1. Not having Bruce up here from day one.

2. Paying Corey Patterson 3M to stink up the joint.

KronoRed
05-26-2008, 10:06 PM
1. Not having Bruce up here from day one.

2. Paying Corey Patterson 3M to stink up the joint.

Eh Walt would have done the same more then likely

BuckeyeRedleg
05-26-2008, 10:08 PM
Eh Walt would have done the same more then likely


How so?

I doubt Walt would be pushed around by Dusty or Bob.

REDREAD
05-26-2008, 10:09 PM
Alright!!!

I have to disagree with DFAing Patterson tho... for one financially its redic. Plus we need a natural CF on the bench. He'll provide a solid late inning defensive replacement for Griffey or Dunn (pushing Bruce to LF or RF and Pat in CF) plus some pop on the bench.


Yep, no point in DFAing Patterson.
Either one of the three catchers or Hat will get axed.

If you keep Patterson, you have the option of starting Bruce in CF, and then in late innings, move Bruce to a corner and put Patterson in CF.

KronoRed
05-26-2008, 10:10 PM
How so?

I doubt Walt would be pushed around by Dusty or Bob.

Bob is the boss and he likes Dusty, Walt would do what he's told.

Doesn't matter now anyway.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:17 PM
I'm glad we have you to keep things in perspective... ;)

If you'll remember, I was one of maybe two or three folks reminding people to curb their enthusiasm over Cueto's white-hot start in Spring Training.

It's still a mistake to expect him to throw a starter's complement of innings this year. A pretty big mistake, IMO.

So, yeah, I don't think there is any doubt that I helped keep a measure of perspective here when the sun was rising and setting on Mr. Cueto for that brief shining moment.

jojo
05-26-2008, 10:17 PM
A plus defending CFer with speed but no stick is worth a lot more than an old left handed first baseman with a questionable glove,no speed and no stick. The former costs a couple million to jettison. The latter costs about a million to kick to the curb.

I'd eat less money by getting rid of the less valuable player but that's just me......

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:19 PM
Bob is the boss and he likes Dusty, Walt would do what he's told.

Doesn't matter now anyway.

Walt doesn't play second-fiddle to Dusty. No way in hell; but that's what you're intimating.

You got your second sentence correct, however.

mth123
05-26-2008, 10:19 PM
A plus defending CFer with speed but no stick is worth a lot more than an old left handed first baseman with a questionable glove,no speed and no stick. The former costs a couple million to jettison. The latter costs about a million to kick to the curb.

I'd eat less money by getting rid of the less valuable player but that's just me......

Agree. I'd peddle Hatte if I could at this point. Javy is a better PH anyway.

sonny
05-26-2008, 10:23 PM
What an exciting day.:thumbup:

That is all.

REDREAD
05-26-2008, 10:25 PM
Even if the Super Two status would have bitten them in the butt in three years for 6M, they could have accepted it and not paid Corey Patterson 3M.

So Bruce is up in April, and NO Patterson, costs this organization 3 Million three years later. Whippittydoo.

A small price to pay, especially considering how they have thrown millions away on garbage every year (Stanton, Cormier, Castro, etc).

In all fairness to Jocketty, it was Wayne that decided to add Patterson to the roster. It was Wayne that decided Bruce had to go to AAA to work on some things. Whether he was right or wrong, it was Wayne's call.

Walt was stuck with Patterson (among others). It kind of made sense to see if Patterson and Freel could play. Now granted, it was apparent earlier than today that they really weren't the answer, but at that point, it was only 2-3 weeks more until Bruce's Super 2 date was over.

I just hope Bruce really is ready.

jojo
05-26-2008, 10:29 PM
If the Reds pitching turns around it will be because Jocketty got aggressive and did what he's done so many times in the past.

Maybe. Or maybe it'll have very little to do with Jocketty.

REDREAD
05-26-2008, 10:30 PM
I only hold Wayne 50% negligent on that front. He was told, in no uncertain terms, to get Corey Patterson inked to a deal because Dusty Baker wanted him on the team.

I don't think so. Dusty had a lot of great things to say about Bruce as well in spring training. To be honest, there's ZERO evidence that Wayne was forced to add Patterson or anyone else to the 25 man roster under Dusty's influence.
Look at Harrsion. He was supposedly one of Dusty's boys too, yet he didn't get called up until after Wayne left. Dusty prefered Harrsion to Castro, but Wayne prefered Castro so Wayne put Castro on the opening day roster.

I'm sorry, but I am getting tired of Dusty being blamed for things that aren't his responsiblity. There's mountains of evidence that Wayne was 100% in control of the 25 man roster. Dusty may have suggested inviting Patterson but no one put a gun to Wayne's head and forced him to guarantee Patterson's contract.






You think Corey's agent, when the Reds came calling, didn't figure out what was going on?

Maybe Corey's agent saw the Reds had no CF, and Wayne has poor judgement in aquiring veteran players?

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 10:30 PM
In all fairness to Jocketty, it was Wayne that decided to add Patterson to the roster. It was Wayne that decided Bruce had to go to AAA to work on some things. Whether he was right or wrong, it was Wayne's call.

Walt was stuck with Patterson (among others). It kind of made sense to see if Patterson and Freel could play. Now granted, it was apparent earlier than today that they really weren't the answer, but at that point, it was only 2-3 weeks more until Bruce's Super 2 date was over.

I just hope Bruce really is ready.
No, it was Bob who told Wayne to get Patterson 'no matter what it takes'. If it was Wayne's call, Patterson would have been in camp at the start of the spring, not coming in during the middle of March.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:30 PM
Maybe. Or maybe it'll have very little to do with Jocketty.

Gee, that's cryptic.

I think even the most generous observer of the Reds would agree that the answers to the Reds' pitching woes don't currently reside in the Reds' system.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:32 PM
Gee, that's cryptic.

I think even the most generous observer of the Reds would agree that the answers to the Reds' pitching woes don't currently reside in the Reds' system.

You're right: most of the answers are already on the major league roster...

GAC
05-26-2008, 10:32 PM
Having Bruce up (which I don't oppose) is a nice distraction from the other problems that plaque this '08 squad. I just hope expectations (pressure) are not too high on this kid. He's only 21.

We need to show patience with some of the youngsters that are being given the opportunity to play this year.... Volquez, Votto, now Bruce, and especially Johnny Cueto. Think outside the box. They are possibly the future. Not simply the '08 season. For anyone to look at any of these young guy's '08 performance and leave out the developmental aspect (learning curve) into that equation, and suggest they may not be the answer is being pretty short-sighted IMHO.

This team has been hurt with key injuries to players like Gonzo and Keppinger, which has forced this team to thrust players like Hairston and Janish into starting roles.

They are obviously trying to gracefully (and diplomatically) deal with the deteriorating performance of an aging superstar (Jr). It's an issue they are avoiding and possibly going to allow to resolve itself when the season ends.

What are they going to do with Adam Dunn? No indications have been yet given by this FO.

Yes, our pitching still needs to be addressed. Primarily in the #4 and #5 spots as far as I'm concerned. That is easier said then done. We can complain all we want about guys like Belisle and Fogg; but in the off-season there wasn't much the market was offering up as sound alternatives when the host teams were asking for an "arm and a leg" (due to the market) and very high level prospects. The only pitcher I would have liked this FO to go after was Haren, and it was stated they wanted high level prospects including Cueto. Other then that? Blah! I wasn't that high on Bedard who is now with Seattle, not impressive IMO, and is now on the DL.

It's going to be interesting to see what direction Jocketty takes once the trading deadline arrives. I'm not saying he is necessarily going to fix it then; but the process will, IMHO, begin then, and then proceed through the off-season.

I didn't go into the '08 season with high expectations. I didn't expect to see this team offensively struggle out of the gate like they did; but I was more concerned about growth and progress.

I think a much clearer picture of the direction Jocketty is going to take this team will start to be seen come mid-season and there after.

REDREAD
05-26-2008, 10:33 PM
Bob is the boss and he likes Dusty, Walt would do what he's told.

Doesn't matter now anyway.

I don't think so. I think that if Bob tries to micromanage and overrule Walt, Walt will just quit.

I also think that Bob had enough respect for both Wayne and Walt to let them do their jobs. No evidence that Bob influenced any of Wayne's decisions.. Patterson is 100% Wayne's baby, just like AGon, Freel, Stanton, etc.

However, even in hindsight, I still think that Patterson was a decent gamble. Sure, it didn't work out, but it was worth a try.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:34 PM
You're right: most of the answers are already on the major league roster...

Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?

Have the Reds extended Harang beyond his current contract, so he can pitch alongside a MLB-ready Cueto?

And I see a bullpen that's about 2 bulldogs short, and a good long-man short.

Basically what you're counting on is for the Reds to go 5 for 5 in the pitching prospect department. Again, even the most the generous critic of the Reds' system would say that that's not just an anomaly, but a miracle.

jojo
05-26-2008, 10:37 PM
Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?

Have the Reds extended Harang beyond his current contract, so he can pitch alongside a MLB-ready Cueto?

And I see a bullpen that's about 2 bulldogs short, and a good long-man short.

Arguing Cueto is three years away from being a MLB-ready starter pretty much damages your credibility on anything pitching related IMHO.

REDREAD
05-26-2008, 10:38 PM
No, it was Bob who told Wayne to get Patterson 'no matter what it takes'. If it was Wayne's call, Patterson would have been in camp at the start of the spring, not coming in during the middle of March.

No, this was a quote twisted around to blame Bob.

Wayne was chasing Lofton and Patterson all winter. He CLEARLY wanted them. As I said earlier, there was no context to that quote. Wayne could've told Bob that he wanted Patterson, but Patterson wanted 3 million. Then Bob could've said, "Fine, if you think Patterson will help us, do what it takes".

If Wayne didn't want Patterson, he could've simply not added him to the 25 man roster. Again, how come Wayne wasn't "forced" to put Harrison on the 25 man roster? Wasn't he one of Dusty's boys too?

Wayne didn't show a lot of class on his way out. He tried to blame all his mistakes on other people and tried to rationalize away some mistakes (like Cormier).. After hearing him BS about the Cormier trade being "ok", how does he have any credibility left?

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:38 PM
Arguing Cueto is three years away from being a MLB-ready starter pretty much damages your credibility on anything pitching related IMHO.

I'd be just as credible if I said he'll never make it. Your timetables have been all kinds of wrong on the optimistic scale since your arrival.

I think credibility is not at all *my* issue.

jojo
05-26-2008, 10:40 PM
I'd be just as credible if I said he'll never make it.

No. It would be a blanket generalization (a gross one at that).

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:40 PM
Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?

Have the Reds extended Harang beyond his current contract, so he can pitch alongside a MLB-ready Cueto?

And I see a bullpen that's about 2 bulldogs short, and a good long-man short.

Basically what you're counting on is for the Reds to go 5 for 5 in the pitching prospect department. Again, even the most the generous critic of the Reds' system would say that that's not just an anomaly, but a miracle.

I see a rotation that has four spots filled (not buying your argument that Cueto is three years away), with the final spot being filled by ONE of THREE in Bailey, Thompson, and Maloney. The bullpen looks good too with Belisle in long relief and maybe one more piece from the farm...

BTW, dude: there are 16 teams in the NL...

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:41 PM
No. It would be a blanket generalization (a gross one at that).

But that's where your predictions and projections become unmoored from reality--believing that every pitching prospect is likely to meet his ceiling.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 10:42 PM
No, this was a quote twisted around to blame Bob.

Wayne was chasing Lofton and Patterson all winter. He CLEARLY wanted them. As I said earlier, there was no context to that quote. Wayne could've told Bob that he wanted Patterson, but Patterson wanted 3 million. Then Bob could've said, "Fine, if you think Patterson will help us, do what it takes".

If Wayne didn't want Patterson, he could've simply not added him to the 25 man roster. Again, how come Wayne wasn't "forced" to put Harrison on the 25 man roster? Wasn't he one of Dusty's boys too?

Wayne didn't show a lot of class on his way out. He tried to blame all his mistakes on other people and tried to rationalize away some mistakes (like Cormier).. After hearing him BS about the Cormier trade being "ok", how does he have any credibility left?

So wait.... there was no context to the quote, but you somehow know the context? How does that work? As for 'Harrison', maybe he was willing to sign without a 25 man roster stipulation and Patterson wasn't.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:42 PM
I see a rotation that has four spots filled (not buying your argument that Cueto is three years away), with the final spot being filled by ONE of THREE in Bailey, Thompson, and Maloney. The bullpen looks good too with Belisle in long relief and maybe one more piece from the farm...

BTW, dude: there are 16 teams in the NL...

Oops. 15 out of 16. Even better. :) Only the Pirates stand between us and oblivion.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2008, 10:45 PM
If you'll remember, I was one of maybe two or three folks reminding people to curb their enthusiasm over Cueto's white-hot start in Spring Training.

It's still a mistake to expect him to throw a starter's complement of innings this year. A pretty big mistake, IMO.

So, yeah, I don't think there is any doubt that I helped keep a measure of perspective here when the sun was rising and setting on Mr. Cueto for that brief shining moment.

IIRC, you also thought Volquez would end up in the pen and would take some serious lumps.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:47 PM
IIRC, you also thought Volquez would end up in the pen and would take some serious lumps.

I said he "could" end up in the pen. Not that he "would."

And yeah, he's going to take his lumps. Several folks agree with me in that prediction.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:47 PM
FCB: you are completely ignoring the fact that the Reds have the worst defense in MLB when you attempt to analyze the pitching. Perhaps, check the team FIP...

jojo
05-26-2008, 10:48 PM
But that's where your predictions and projections become unmoored from reality--believing that every pitching prospect is likely to meet his ceiling.

You couldn't mischaracterize my beliefs more grossly in order to construct the vapid straw man.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:48 PM
FCB: you are completely ignoring the fact that the Reds have the worst defense in MLB when you attempt to analyze the pitching. Perhaps, check the team FIP...

I know the defense needs work too. I'm aware of that. But even with that, there is no way this pitching is any good.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:49 PM
I know the defense needs work too. I'm aware of that. But even with that, there is no way this pitching is any good.

Look at your Cardinals for inspiration. Do you really believe they have better pitchers than the Reds?

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:50 PM
You couldn't mischaracterize my beliefs more grossly in order to construct the vapid straw man.

Then what are you doing? And why do I have no credibility by believing that a pitcher of Cueto's size and stature will likely take till his 25 year season to perform with some consistency?

You said I have no credibility based on that. But yeah, the strawman cometh round that goes around, eh?

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:51 PM
Look at your Cardinals for inspiration. Do you really believe they have better pitchers than the Reds?

Yes. Not by much--and the long-term doesn't look good for their arms, but right now, they're outperforming the Reds' pitchers.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 10:51 PM
I know the defense needs work too. I'm aware of that. But even with that, there is no way this pitching is any good.

Actually there is. The Reds team FIP is actually better than the league average. They are far and away leading the NL in strikeouts while being better than average in walks.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2008, 10:51 PM
I said he "could" end up in the pen. Not that he "would."

And yeah, he's going to take his lumps. Several folks agree with me in that prediction.

Could/Would...whatever. You were definitely more pessimistic than optimistic about Volquez's chances this year and I think it's pretty safe to say that things are going to work out just fine with him this season.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:53 PM
Could/Would...whatever. You were definitely more pessimistic than optimistic about Volquez's chances this year and I think it's pretty safe to say that things are going to work out just fine with him this season.

That is patently untrue. Go back to the "Volquez acquired" thread; I was ecstatic about his acquisition. I even softened on Wayne a little bit. :)

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:53 PM
Actually there is. The Reds team FIP is actually better than the league average. They are far and away leading the NL in strikeouts while being better than average in walks.

So we should see results then soon, right?

Then we shall see.

fearofpopvol1
05-26-2008, 10:54 PM
That is patently untrue. Go back to the Volquez acquired thread; I was ecstatic about his acquisition. I even softened on Wayne a little bit. :)

Oh I'm not saying you didn't like the trade...but you seemed pessimistic about him positively contributing in the rotation this season.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:55 PM
Yes. Not by much--and the long-term doesn't look good for their arms, but right now, they're outperforming the Reds' pitchers.

They are not outperforming the Reds pitchers--they just have a better defense behind them...

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:55 PM
Oh I'm not saying you didn't like the trade...but you seemed pessimistic about him positively contributing in the rotation this season.

Not really. It was pretty obvious that he was much further along than Cueto in his preparedness.

I was merely expressing some doubt about Volquez's control problems; a worst case scenario, I guess. So far he's kept his head out of trouble.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 10:55 PM
I know the defense needs work too. I'm aware of that. But even with that, there is no way this pitching is any good.

The bullpen is bad news -- and that's really been the case since Bowden got canned.

Harang, Arroyo and Volquez are a pretty decent 1-2-3. Cueto is a work in progress. Belisle has been 3 kinds of terrible.

They can start to improve pitching by fixing the mess in the corner outfield spots and by never starting Jerry Hairston at SS again. DFA Mike Lincoln and Josh Fogg and replace them with some young hard-throwers. Go shopping in the offseason.

Things are certainly better than they've been the last 7 or 8 years. At least now they've got 3 rotation spots locked down and the closer spot sewn up.

11larkin11
05-26-2008, 10:55 PM
Doesn't SD need a CF? Think theres any chance we can throw them Patterson, one of our catchers, and a decent prospect for Bard or a lesser Patterson deal for Barrett?

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:55 PM
So we should see results then soon, right?

Then we shall see.

Not if Dusty insists on Griffey in RF and Hairston at SS...

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 10:56 PM
So we should see results then soon, right?

Then we shall see.

More of a point that the Reds pitching staff is doing fine, its the defense that is causing them to look bad.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 10:58 PM
They are not outperforming the Reds pitchers--they just have a better defense behind them...

Their defense is not so much better than the Reds as to brook 45 fewer runs allowed.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:58 PM
Look at it this way: the Reds lead the league in strikeouts. Yet they have the worst team defense. What more can the pitchers do to limit the effects of the defense and allow less runs? The only possible anwser is less home runs, which is mostly a symptom of their home park, and less walks, which haven't been too much of a problem considering their inexperience...

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 10:59 PM
Their defense is not so much better than the Reds as to brook 45 fewer runs allowed.

I believe they have the best fielding in the league while the Reds have the worst. It's got to be close to those 45 runs...

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:01 PM
Look at it this way: the Reds lead the league in strikeouts. Yet they have the worst team defense. What more can the pitchers do to limit the effects of the defense and allow less runs? The only possible anwser is less home runs, which is mostly a symptom of their home park, and less walks, which haven't been too much of a problem considering their inexperience...

I don't think Cueto's HR problems have anything to do with GABP.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:02 PM
I believe they have the best fielding in the league while the Reds have the worst. It's got to be close to those 45 runs...

Really?

45 runs over 50 something games.

SirFelixCat
05-26-2008, 11:03 PM
Yay!!!

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 11:03 PM
Look at it this way: the Reds lead the league in strikeouts. Yet they have the worst team defense. What more can the pitchers do to limit the effects of the defense and allow less runs? The only possible anwser is less home runs, which is mostly a symptom of their home park, and less walks, which haven't been too much of a problem considering their inexperience...

Better luck.

You're starting to identify bad luck with bad defense. The Reds defense is pretty below average, but it's not as bad as it's being made out to be.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:04 PM
Their defense is not so much better than the Reds as to brook 45 fewer runs allowed.

The only positions the Reds and Cardinals are even close defensively is CF and 2B. Everywhere else the Cardinals have far superior fielders. I think it makes a much bigger impact than you want to admit.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:05 PM
The only positions the Reds and Cardinals are even close defensively is CF and 2B. Everywhere else the Cardinals have far superior fielders. I think it makes a much bigger impact than you want to admit.

But pretty much nowhere near 45 runs in 50 + games.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:05 PM
But pretty much nowhere near 45 runs in 50 + games.

Without running the numbers, I would bet its close to at least 30 runs to this point in the season.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:06 PM
Without running the numbers, I would bet its close to at least 30 runs to this point in the season.

Nonsense.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 11:06 PM
Better luck.

You're starting to identify bad luck with bad defense. The Reds defense is pretty below average, but it's not as bad as it's being made out to be.

So, you think the Reds have been vitims of really poor luck so far?

jojo
05-26-2008, 11:07 PM
Then what are you doing?

Suggesting a guy with significantly above average Krate, BBrate and K/BB as a starter in his rookie season does't need to spend three more seasons in the minors before he'll be a "mlb starter".....


And why do I have no credibility by believing that a pitcher of Cueto's size and stature will likely take till his 25 year season to perform with some consistency?

Because, your new argument is a strange one. His size and stature would argue against his chances to even become a starter given major league tradition. Why would another three years allow him to pitch like he's got a better downward plane and the durability of a 6'2", 230 lb guy?????

What you did is what you do with all "prospects". You predict failure as a general rule while failing to consider specifics. That may mean you're "right" more often than not, especially with pitchers, but it's not a terribly informative stance and it certainly doesn't support statements like Harang will need to be extended if he's to be a rotation partner with Cueto.


You said I have no credibility based on that. But yeah, the strawman cometh round that goes around, eh?

You don't and it's not a strawman to argue that you don't.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 11:09 PM
So, you think the Reds have been vitims of really poor luck so far?

Oh I know the Reds have been victims of poor luck.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:13 PM
Suggesting a guy with significantly above average Krate, BBrate and K/BB as a starter in his rookie season does't need to spend three more seasons in the minors before he'll be a "mlb starter".....



Because, your new argument is a strange one. His size and stature would argue against his chances to even become a starter given major league tradition. Why would another three years allow him to pitch like he's got a better downward plane and the durability of a 6'2", 230 lb guy?????

What you did is what you do with all "prospects". You predict failure as a general rule while failing to consider specifics. That may mean you're "right" more often than not, especially with pitchers, but it's not a terribly informative stance and it certainly doesn't support statements like Harang will need to be extended if he's to be a rotation partner with Cueto.



You don't and it's not a strawman to argue that you don't.

Guys fill out. They become stronger. 22 is young.

And I never predicted failure for Volquez. Not once.

Captain, I have plenty of credibility. Consistently. Your shifting mirages, parries and dodges in arguments have been your hallmark. You assert something, retract it, try to argue that you never said it.

*I* have no problem with credibility on these matters. But I don't need your affirmation to establish a baseline of credibility. I have earned it through years of consistent conservative appraisal of talent, and a measured approach to the basic odds of survival in MLB.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:14 PM
Nonsense.

Not even close to being nonsense.

Caveat Emperor
05-26-2008, 11:14 PM
Oh I know the Reds have been victims of poor luck.

Seriously -- I mean, what else but bad luck can explain why the Josh Fogg signing didn't work?

11larkin11
05-26-2008, 11:15 PM
When are we going to do something with Hatteberg and bring up Andy Phillips?

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 11:19 PM
FWIW, THT +/- has the difference between the Cardinals and Reds defense at 43 runs. Lets take this discussion to my new thread and get back to Jay Bruce... :)

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 11:21 PM
FWIW, THT +/- has the difference between the Cardinals and Reds defense at 43 runs. Lets take this discussion to my new thread and get back to Jay Bruce... :)

Well let me ask you this:

What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?

It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.

*BaseClogger*
05-26-2008, 11:22 PM
Well let me ask you this:

What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?

It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.

A lack of groundballs and flyballs? :D

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:22 PM
Well let me ask you this:

What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?

It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.

Cueto would have a 2.00 ERA and an FIP of 1.00 if he had the Cardinals' defense. That much I know.

AmarilloRed
05-26-2008, 11:22 PM
A quote from our GM on how much playing time Bruce will get:


He was ready for some time, but we wanted to give him more time and give more opportunities to the guys we have here," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "When Jay comes up, he'll play a lot. We wouldn't bring him up and not play him.


A little ambiguous. That could mean he could be starting in the outfield, or that he would be starting on days the regular outfielders need a day off. I will wait and see how Dusty uses him, but it seems like our GM wants to get him considerable playing time.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:23 PM
A quote from our GM on how much playing time Bruce will get:




A little ambiguous. That could mean he could be starting in the outfield, or that he would be starting on days the regular outfielders need a day off. I will wait and see how Dusty uses him, but it seems like our GM wants to get him considerable playing time.

Walt > Dusty

VR
05-26-2008, 11:28 PM
By pulling the trigger on the most significant transaction since the acquisition on KGJ, Walt's a lock for the Reds Hall of Fame.
What a crafty GM!

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:30 PM
A quote from our GM on how much playing time Bruce will get:




A little ambiguous. That could mean he could be starting in the outfield, or that he would be starting on days the regular outfielders need a day off. I will wait and see how Dusty uses him, but it seems like our GM wants to get him considerable playing time.

To put it bluntly, if Jay Bruce doesn't start at least 25 games per month, the Reds need to fire Dusty Baker.

OldXOhio
05-26-2008, 11:31 PM
Quote:
but we wanted to give him more time and give more opportunities to the guys we have here," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said.


Clearly, Walt's been waiting for the latter to fully transpire before acting and that day has finally come.

SMcGavin
05-26-2008, 11:31 PM
Really? So how do you explain the Reds' pitching being 14th out of 15 in the NL in RA?


Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray

Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:32 PM
To put it bluntly, if Jay Bruce doesn't start at least 25 games per month, the Reds need to fire Dusty Baker.

If it comes down to Walt vs. Dusty, Dusty will lose every time.

But I don't think it will come to that.

reds44
05-26-2008, 11:33 PM
Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray

Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.
Good stuff right there.

Cyclone792
05-26-2008, 11:34 PM
A lack of groundballs and flyballs? :D

Well ...


Ball-in-Play Rates

Reds NL
GB% 43.19% 44.82%
GB BABIP .237 .231

FB% 34.52% 36.02%
FB BABIP .147 .143

LD% 22.30% 19.16%
LD BABIP .740 .720

If the Reds had league average BIP percentages, then they'd have 42 less line drives allowed. Those 42 line drives would instead be dispersed as ground balls and fly balls. And of those 42 extra line drives, 30-35 of them would be turned into outs if they were ground ball balls or fly balls.

The BABIP differences between the Reds and the NL in ground balls and fly balls is roughly a half dozen balls over the season so far. That's it, nothing more.

Everything else is due to a combination of A) a high line drive percentage, and B) more of the Reds' line drives allowed end up as hits than the NL average. Defense cannot at all be blamed for the former, and it only has a small share of the responsibility for the latter (approximately a half dozen balls here).

Really, put it together and the Reds defense is only 12 balls behind the NL average once you account for the types of hits that the pitching staff is allowing.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:35 PM
Matt Belisle: 29.2 IP, 7.28 ERA
Josh Fogg: 25 IP, 9.00 ERA
Mike Lincoln: 21.2 IP, 6.65 ERA
Todd Coffey: 15.1 IP, 6.46 ERA
David Weathers: 16.1 IP, 4.96 ERA

That's 108 innings of suck. A 7.08 ERA over those 108 innings. Those innings are relevant when looking at how the Reds have performed in 2008, they are not relevant when looking at how the Reds are going to perform in 2009/2010. None of those guys are going to be around then (save maybe Belisle in the bullpen). The flip side of this is that the good numbers Affeldt and Mercker have also shouldn't be considered.

If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

Aaron Harang
Edinson Volquez
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Francisco Cordero
Jared Burton
Bill Bray

Those seven have combined for 313 innings of 3.76 ERA. It's not a full pitching staff, but it's a nice start. Those are the guys who will throw the lion's share of the innings over the next few seasons. It illustrates that the problem with the Reds staff is not that our best pitchers are worse than other teams' best pitchers, it's that our bad pitchers are worse than other team's bad pitchers.

This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

Depth.

SMcGavin
05-26-2008, 11:37 PM
This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

Depth.

It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.

reds44
05-26-2008, 11:38 PM
This is cherry-picking though. I bet if you removed Bray, Arroyo, and Cueto, the numbers would look stupendous.

Depth.
But those three are part of the future, so why would he remove them? If any of the top 5 of that list are on the Reds next year I'll be surprised.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:39 PM
It's nothing of the sort. It's the seven pitchers who are going to be on this team next season. Some are off to good starts, some are off to bad ones. Cherry picking would be keeping Affeldt on the list while taking off Arroyo and Cueto. The fact is the success/failure of Fogg, Affeldt, Lincoln, Mercker have zero bearing on how good the Reds will be next season.

There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.

jojo
05-26-2008, 11:39 PM
Guys fill out. They become stronger. 22 is young.

I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....


And I never predicted failure for Volquez. Not once.

This is puzzling then:

I would absolutely not throw out Fogg just yet. Not with Volquez's volatility. He's very likely to be out of the rotation by the middle of May with his control problems. There's just no stability in this rotation; need as many warm bodies as possible.


Captain, I have plenty of credibility. Consistently. Your shifting mirages, parries and dodges in arguments have been your hallmark. You assert something, retract it, try to argue that you never said it.

Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 11:41 PM
14 out 15 in the NL in pitching.

This season is beyond lost.

The Reds still have 111 games left.

jojo
05-26-2008, 11:41 PM
Well let me ask you this:

What's responsible for a high line drive rate? Bad pitching? Bad defense? Bad luck?

It's a little bit of Column A and a little bit of Column C, but it certainly isn't any of Column B.

The defense certainly can't be blamed for a high line drive rate.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:42 PM
I too am waiting for Cueto to grow 5 inches and become stocky rather than the bean pole he is.....



This is puzzling then:




Seriously. I sometimes wonder if you even bother reading my thoughts before you argue them.

So how does my arguing that Volquez would be on a short leash due to his storied control problems make me pessimistic? It's pretty clear that I was arguing worst-case scenario for him, not career-ending failure.

SMcGavin
05-26-2008, 11:43 PM
There's a ton of things that will have a bearing on how well that identified "core" performs next season.

Well, yeah. The success/failure of Fogg/Mercker/Affeldt/Lincoln isn't one of them. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

jojo
05-26-2008, 11:44 PM
If you want to evaluate the Reds' chances of being good in the future you need to look at the players who are still going to be here:

This seems like a very reasonable approach.

OnBaseMachine
05-26-2008, 11:45 PM
I'll see, but it will be Jocketty's revamping that gets it done, if it indeed gets done. (Cueto's at least two or three years from really contributing, if ever).

Whoa. Already giving up on Johnny Cueto after a few rough starts. The only downside to calling up Jay Bruce is how some fans will react when he goes through his first slump.

dougdirt
05-26-2008, 11:46 PM
Whoa. Already giving up on Johnny Cueto after a few rough starts. The only downside to calling up Jay Bruce is how some fans will react when he goes through his first slump.

Jay Bruce doesn't slump.... he evens the playing field.

Boss-Hog
05-26-2008, 11:46 PM
Let's get this thread back on topic, please. If you'd like to continue the side debates that have nothing to do with Jay Bruce being called up, start a new thread.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:46 PM
Well, yeah. The success/failure of Fogg/Mercker/Affeldt/Lincoln isn't one of them. Not sure what point you're trying to make here.

All you're doing is collecting the arms that are likely to be here next season and framing them as the ones who will be successful. But you're talking about half of a pitching staff. I bet if you cherry-picked every pitching staff in the majors as you did, the future of a lot of teams would look very bright. But as we know in reality, some pitching staffs will get better, some will get worse and some will stay fairly consistent. Pointing to the 6 "best" is simply pointing to the 6 best; it doesn't foreshadow anything. If the Reds are going to get better they are going to have to get much, much deeper than their current depth.

Falls City Beer
05-26-2008, 11:50 PM
For the record, I've been a massive Bruce booster for years ( I know, huge stretch). And I'm excited as heck to see him play. No pessimism for him. :thumbup:

fearofpopvol1
05-27-2008, 12:03 AM
I just ordered my Bruce jersey online. 2-3 weeks before it gets here. I'm hoping it gets here before the series with the Yanks. I'm definitely excited about JB.

I just hope his plate discipline increases, but he's still young so that should hopefully come with time.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 12:07 AM
Reds set to bring up prospect Bruce
Touted outfielder was leading International League in batting
By Mark Sheldon / MLB.com

CINCINNATI -- The time is finally now for Jay Bruce.

Bruce, considered the consensus top prospect in all of professional baseball, will be promoted to the Reds from Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday and make his Major League debut in Cincinnati against the Pirates.

In 49 games with Louisville this season, Bruce led the International League with a .364 batting average and 67 hits. The outfielder also had 10 home runs, 37 RBIs and an on-base plus slugging percentage of 1.023.

Since May 3, Bruce was batting .456 (36-for-79), with 13 multihit games in his past 20.

This season, it was never a question of if Bruce would be called up, but when.

"He was ready for some time, but we wanted to give him more time and give more opportunities to the guys we have here," Reds general manager Walt Jocketty said. "When Jay comes up, he'll play a lot. We wouldn't bring him up and not play him."

The Reds were off on Monday after returning from a seven-day West Coast road trip. A corresponding roster move to make room for Bruce will be announced before Tuesday's series opener at Great American Ball Park.

Bruce, the Reds' first-round Draft pick in 2005, will become the regular center fielder. It's been an unsettled spot with leadoff batter Corey Patterson batting just .201 with a .242 on-base percentage. Ryan Freel has played well when in center field but will remain in a utility role.

The struggling Patterson could be the likely candidate to come off the roster, especially after he went 0-for-8 in Sunday's 18-inning loss at San Diego. But the wheels were already in motion to promote Bruce before the weekend.

"It's something we've been discussing during the road trip," Jocketty said. "We just didn't see any sense in bringing him to California for a couple of days. So we decided to wait until we got back."

Where Bruce bats in the lineup will be up to manager Dusty Baker, who tried the prospect in the leadoff spot during a few exhibition games during Spring Training. Bruce is considered a five-tool player. After he was cut from the club at Spring Training, he was told to improve his baserunning skills.

The only other issue Bruce has is his high strikeout rate. He struck out 45 times in 184 at-bats this season. But the Reds are comfortable enough to let him improve his plate discipline at the big league level.

Other than at Spring Training this year, Jocketty hadn't seen Bruce play in a game until last Sunday, when he visited Louisville. In that game, Bruce went 2-for-4 with a home run. The two also spent some time talking.

"It just confirmed what everyone had been telling me," Jocketty said of Bruce's skills. "You like to see guys from the organization that are good kids get an opportunity. He certainly has earned it."

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080526&content_id=2776434&vkey=news_cin&fext=.jsp&c_id=cin

AmarilloRed
05-27-2008, 12:14 AM
Good news; he will be starting every day in center field. That makes it extremely likely Patterson will be the corresponding roster move.

REDREAD
05-27-2008, 12:25 AM
I believe they have the best fielding in the league while the Reds have the worst. It's got to be close to those 45 runs...

I'm not saying St Louis is great.
But compare the team pitching numbers

Cincy pitching allows: 270 BA against, 337 OBP against, 442 slg against (779 OPS)

ST Louis allows: 257 BA against, 319 OBP against, 401 SLG against (720 OPS)

The Reds simply allow more hits and more extra base hits. That's why they give up more runs. Strikeouts by pitchers are great, but as a whole, this team gives up a lot of hits and bases beyond HRs.

I think FIP is way overrated as "The" measuring stick. It makes a guy like Burton who sometimes strikes out a lot of people look a lot better than he really is. Because there's some days where Burton gets hit hard, which causes the opposition to score runs, regardless of how many K and BB he has.

Sure, the Reds defense could be better, but the truth is, we have some bad and mediocre pitching along with the good pitching..

Team Clark
05-27-2008, 12:26 AM
The Reds have nothing to lose. Good move, good timing. Wish i could make it to the game to watch.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 12:29 AM
That's rough with the long drive since there's still no guarantees Bruce will be starting tomorrow. I'll be waiting until the lineups are up tomorrow before making the final decision to head down. He better be starting, but you never know what kind of Dustification the Reds will try to pass for not starting Bruce tomorrow.

It doesn't look like we're gonna get to go. Oh well, that's fine. I'll be watching the game from the TV with a big smile on my face. I've got a couple abscessed teeth that are giving me headaches and making me sick, so it's probably better if I stay home anyways until I get them pulled next Monday.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 12:40 AM
OBM, no offense. But, ask your dad to coach those kids instead of going to the Reds' game. Maybe one of those kids is the next Jay Bruce, but probably only if they have mentors who prioritize them and dedicate themselves to show up, throw bp, etc...

I see all these soccer fields replacing baseball diamonds all over town, and youth baseball is imperative to keeping the game alive. My coach used to cuss like a marine, make us run laps and dress us down when we made a stupid error. But we loved him because he was there three nights a week throwing 250 pitches of batting practice after working 10 hour shifts in a sweat shop. He never missed a practice or a game, much less to go watch a major league baseball game.

Dad is a dedicated coach, absolutely loves doing it. He also umpires numerous games a year. He's a huge Reds fan and is the reason I love the Reds like I do. His favorite player was always Johnny Bench... I love to listen to him tell stories about how great the Big Red Machine was. But back to him coaching - I've seen his team play and believe me, there are no future Jay Bruce's on that team. ;) He usually takes his team pretty deep in the All-Star tournaments but this years team is probably the worst he's had.

I used to have a little league coach similar to the one you described. He would practice us at 10:00 in the morning during the summers for All-Stars and then have us come back at 8:00 at night and practice under the lights. Some might think it was too much but I loved it. It's baseball man. I miss it badly. I'm 21 now so I can't play anymore except for soft pitch softball, which I'm thinking about doing next year.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 12:43 AM
Reds promote Bruce - finally

By Hal McCoy | Monday, May 26, 2008, 05:40 PM
Latest comment

Jay Bruce is coming. Finally. For real.

The 21-year-old outfielder will be in uniform 32 with the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday when they open a three-game series with ther Pirates.

And it made me a prophet. I told Marty Brennaman during a second-inning visit in Los Angeles on the just complete 2-5 trip to the west coast that I thought he would materialize when the Reds returned home.

After losing an 18-inning game Sunday to the last place San Diego Padres, and watching Corey Patterson go 0 for 8, the Reds decided it was time to call up their No. 1 draft pick from 2005 who is wreaking havoc on Triple-A pitching.

General manager Walt Jocketty said all along that they wouldn’t call him up until they decided he would play.

So…let’s see if he is in Tuesday’s lineup. They say his position isn’t center field, but it isn’t likely they’ll bench left fielder Adam Dunn or right fielder Ken Griffey Jr. If he plays - and why else would they call him up - he’ll be in center.

Scouts tell me he CAN play center field. While he doesn’t have great speed, he gets good jumps on balls and gets to them. That’s all he needs to do, right?

Amazingly, I was dragging myself in the back door of my house after flying all day from San Diego when the phone rang with the news.

I left at 6:30 (9:30 Dayton time) and flew four hours to Atlanta, had a 90-minute layover, than an hour-and-a-half flight to Dayton, arriving home at 5 p.m.

Tired? Oh, yeah. But excited over the prospect of finally seeing Mr. Bruce in the flesh for the first time since spring training.

Bruce has been rated the best prospect in the minor leagues by Baseball America, Sporting News, most scouts, anybody with good baseball sense and fans of the Reds since last year.

He has spent the season at Louisville, where in 49 games he hit .364 with nine doubles, five triples, 10 HR, 37 RBIs and eight stolen bases.

He leads the International League in hitting and hits (67) and ranks among the IL leaders in slugging percentage (.630, 3rd), runs scored (34, 4th), extra-base hits (24, T4th) and RBI (T5th).

All that was wasted in the minors. Now it’s time to put those numbers to good use.

A roster move to make room for Bruce will be made before Tuesday’s game.

Rob Butcher

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Reds Nd2
05-27-2008, 12:53 AM
Just as I thought. A lot of teeth-gnashing for nothing.

So, this is Walt Jocketty's big move to stop the losing and turn the franchise around. Color me unimpressed.

Tom Servo
05-27-2008, 12:56 AM
Is this the biggest call up in Reds history?
"This is the biggest night in the history of our sport!!"


Awesome news, let the Bruce era begin.

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 12:57 AM
So, this is Walt Jocketty's big move to stop the losing and turn the franchise around. Color me unimpressed.

There isn't just one move that can fix this team vs the competition, but it is a start.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:02 AM
I'm calling it right now folks, Jay Bruce is going to homer in his first major league game.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:06 AM
But seriously, I hope we don't get our hopes up too high for him. I'm 100% confident Bruce will out produce Corey Patterson by a large margin, but I do understand that he will struggle at times like all young players do. Evan Longoria of the Rays is a similar prospect to Bruce and while he's had plenty of bright spots, he's also struggled. His overall line is .247/.321/.466/ - .787 OPS though he has belted seven homeruns in 146 atbats. I think Bruce will hit somewhere along .275-.280/.325/.500+ with 15-20 homeruns if he plays everyday, and that is very solid for right now.

WVPacman
05-27-2008, 01:13 AM
According to Baseball Digest Daily, the Reds will promote top prospect Jay Bruce tomorrow. The 21 year-old is mashing to the tune of .364/.393/.630 in Triple A. Said Rob Neyer today: "Has there ever been a more obvious call-up in the history of the sport?" Bruce's promotion may signal the end of Corey Patterson in Cincinnati.

We can only hope that Patterson is gone!!!!

The_jbh
05-27-2008, 01:18 AM
again I think we need to hold on to Patterson. He is a solid defensive replacement and we could certainly do worse with a left off the bench. Plus why cut a guy and then pay him 2 mil for the rest of the year.


I think we'd complain a whole lot less about Corey if he wasnt batting lead off

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 01:18 AM
But seriously, I hope we don't get our hopes up too high for him. I'm 100% confident Bruce will out produce Corey Patterson by a large margin, but I do understand that he will struggle at times like all young players do. Evan Longoria of the Rays is a similar prospect to Bruce and while he's had plenty of bright spots, he's also struggled. His overall line is .247/.321/.466/ - .787 OPS though he has belted seven homeruns in 146 atbats. I think Bruce will hit somewhere along .275-.280/.325/.500+ with 15-20 homeruns if he plays everyday, and that is very solid for right now.

I look for Bruce to put up Votto type numbers his first partial year.
.321 .360 .548 908

I am also looking for some intangibles that I think that might come with Dunn, Phillips, Votto and Bruce together as teammates, I look for them to bring some competitive drive and energy to this team along with Hairston and Freel the rest of the way. As a group I think that they will take over this team and extinguish that old losing low energy cloud that seems to be a part of the present team.

RedlegJake
05-27-2008, 01:20 AM
Now I can't wait to see what moves will correspond with this, and with the movement throughout the system.

Spring~Fields
05-27-2008, 01:25 AM
Now I can't wait to see what moves will correspond with this, and with the movement throughout the system.

Me too, this was just a good start. I think that Jocketty will start/is moving on what you are talking about.

OnBaseMachine
05-27-2008, 01:27 AM
Hopefully the next move is replacing Mike Lincoln with Josh Roenicke.

toledodan
05-27-2008, 01:34 AM
I look for Bruce to put up Votto type numbers his first partial year.
.321 .360 .548 908

I am also looking for some intangibles that I think that might come with Dunn, Phillips, Votto and Bruce together as teammates, I look for them to bring some competitive drive and energy to this team along with Hairston and Freel the rest of the way. As a group I think that they will take over this team and extinguish that old losing low energy cloud that seems to be a part of the present team.



i would love that.:thumbup::beerme:

*BaseClogger*
05-27-2008, 01:35 AM
Hopefully the next move is replacing Mike Lincoln with Josh Roenicke.

Roenicke has control issues. He's not ready...