View Full Version : Latest MLB.com mock draft (6/3)

06-03-2008, 12:14 PM
1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Griffin, Ga.
Officially, it's the same five who have been in the conversation all along: Beckham, FSU catcher Buster Posey, Southern California catcher Kyle Skipworth, Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez and San Diego lefty Brian Matusz. Sticking with Beckham here, at least for the time being.
Last week's projection: Tim Beckham

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt
No change here, with the Pirates still in line to make some waves by taking Alvarez. They'll still consider Posey and perhaps even Matusz if they feel they need to go with the top college pitcher.
Last week's projection: Alvarez

3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.
Hosmer remains the top choice here, but if the Pirates pass on Alvarez, he would be a consideration. If they decide to go with pitching, Matusz is still in the mix.
Last week's projection: Hosmer

4. Baltimore Orioles: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri
It's been up and down lately for the right-hander, who slid partially because of a mini-slump and partially because of some perceived demands for a big-league contract. He had a terrific start in the NCAA regionals and the big-league-deal request has reportedly been taken off the table. The O's will still consider Matusz as well as South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.
Last week's projection: Brian Matusz

5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State
If the Rays don't take him and the Pirates take Alvarez, this is the next place Posey can end up. The Giants supposedly are leaning toward a bat even if Posey's gone, with Smoak and Skipworth being possibilities. If Matusz were around, they might discuss going in that direction, but they'll be pleased as punch to get the FSU catcher.
Last week's projection: Posey

6. Florida Marlins: Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego
With the O's going with Crow, that leaves the Marlins with a choice of Matusz or Skipworth, the two players they seem to have been on the most. There was some late talk of Andrew Cashner here, but with Matusz still on the board, they won't hesitate to take the southpaw.
Last week's projection: Skipworth

7. Cincinnati Reds: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami
The Reds could consider Smoak, but word all along has been that they prefer Alonso. If they want a middle infielder, there's Georgia's Gordon Beckham. High school bats being considered could include Skipworth and Canadian Brett Lawrie. For now, we'll stick with the Miami first baseman.
Last week's projection: Alonso

8. Chicago White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
They'll have interest in Alonso if the Reds don't take him and they might have interest in Skipworth if he's around. ASU's Brett Wallace still gets mentioned occasionally here, and Smoak could get some consideration, but G-Beck still makes the most sense in this slot.
Last week's projection: Gordon Beckham

9. Washington Nationals: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.
It looks like this could be a choice between the polished college hitter in Smoak and the high-upside high school player in Skipworth. Could make for a spirited debate and for now we'll have the Nats come down on the high school backstop side of the argument.
Last week's projection: Smoak

10. Houston Astros: Justin Smoak, 1B, University of South Carolina
It still seems like a college arm makes the most sense here, with Tulane's Shooter Hunt still a possibility and perhaps Andrew Cashner figuring into the mix. But with a bat like Smoak's surprisingly still around, it's easy to see the 'Stros not letting him drop any further.
Last week's projection: Crow

11. Texas Rangers: Andrew Cashner, RHP, Texas Christian
There have been four names mentioned prominently here: Cashner, Hunt, Aaron Hicks and SoCal high school pitcher Gerrit Cole. Georgia prepster Ethan Martin could still figure into the mix as well. But we'll stick with the guy in the Rangers' backyard for now.
Last week's projection: Cashner

12. Oakland A's: Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS, Long Beach, Calif.
What's this? The A's taking a toolsy outfielder with their top pick? The A's don't draft like they used to all the time and they've been high on Hicks for a while. They could still go with college lefty Christian Friedrich, and would love it if Smoak got to them. Wallace is still in the mix and they would consider Ethan Martin as well.
Last week's projection: Christian Friedrich

13. St. Louis Cardinals: Ryan Perry, RHP, University of Arizona
There have been countless reports about a Hicks workout in St. Louis that went well, but in this scenario, he's off the board. They could consider Friedrich, Wallace or another SoCal toolsy outfielder in Zach Collier. We're leaving the strong-armed Perry in here for the time being.
Last week's projection: Perry

14. Minnesota Twins: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
Friedrich is probably in the conversation in a whole host of places, but he has to land somewhere. The Twins would love for Hicks to get to them, but that is becoming more and more unlikely. Lawrie has been mentioned, but it's sounding like they may nab a college arm here and perhaps take some higher-ceiling high school guys later on.
Last week's projection: Aaron Hicks

15. Los Angeles Dodgers: Zach Collier, OF, Chino Hills HS, Calif.
It's hard not to put a high school arm like Martin or Jake Odorizzi with the Dodgers, and they both might be in the mix. So might Lawrie. But if Collier is still there, the Dodgers might find his upside too difficult to pass up. He had a recent workout in Dodger Stadium, for whatever that's worth.
Last week's projection: Collier

16. Milwaukee Brewers: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.
Like many teams, there's a hope here that perhaps one of the names mentioned above will filter down to this spot. If that doesn't happen, the Brewers could be looking at Lawrie or Anthony Hewitt, both of whom reportedly performed extremely well in workouts with the club lately. They'd probably take a long look at Hunt and maybe a closer like Josh Fields sneaks in. For now, we'll go with the Canadian prepster, who's been impressing a lot of late.
Last week's projection: Anthony Hewitt

17. Toronto Blue Jays: Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
A guy who can hit like this deserves to go higher, and he just might. If that's the case, the Jays may stay within their borders and take Lawrie, who hails from British Columbia. But with Wallace on the board and Lawrie gone, Wallace's offensive skill set will be too hard to pass up.
Last week's projection: Wallace

18. New York Mets: Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State
It's still looking like the Mets will opt for talent that can help them sooner rather than later, at least with some early picks. If Perry makes it down this far, he could be a choice, but we'll stick with ASU's Davis, the son of former big league reliever Ron Davis.
Last week's projection: Davis

19. Chicago Cubs: Casey Kelly, SS, Sarasota HS, Fla.
It's been looking likely that the Cubs will go with a high school bat if the right one is here. Collier and Lawrie have been mentioned, but with them off the board, it could leave the Cubs looking hard at Sarasota High School shortstop Casey Kelly. He's also a talented pitcher and a University of Tennessee quarterback recruit, but the Cubs have the resources to get it done if they so choose.
Last week's projection: Brett Lawrie

20. Seattle Mariners: Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
All along, the feeling was the Mariners would look for the best college pitcher with a live arm. It could be Perry or Cashner if they were here, but they're not in this projection. If they want to go with a safer college arm, Ole Miss right-hander Lance Lynn could be discussed. Or they could go for a closer with someone like Fields. As of this writing, though, we'll say the Tulane ace's slide will stop here.
Last week's projection: Hunt

21. Detroit Tigers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Stephens County HS, Toccoa, Ga.
The Tigers have been willing and able to do just about anything with their top picks and it's automatically assumed that any "signability issue" types could slide to them. Barring that, they would have interest in high school talents like Collier or Lawrie, or strong college arms like Perry or even Rice's Bryan Price. Instead, they'll go with a prep arm with a ton of upside in Martin.
Last week's projection: Casey Kelly

22. New York Mets: Jason Castro, C, Stanford
Castro, a left-handed hitter who's proven to most scouts this spring that he can catch, has been mentioned as a possibility all up and down the first round over the past few weeks. With the Mets still looking for college bats and Castro still not off the board, this seemed to be a good match. Miami's Jemile Weeks (speed) or maybe South Carolina's James Darnell (power) could figure in here as well.
Last week's projection: Castro

23. San Diego Padres: Daniel Schlereth, LHP, University of Arizona
Scouts have always liked Schlereth's arm and his bulldog mentality, but he kind of fit a setup-man profile. Then he pitched in a series against Stanford with a ton of eyes and came out throwing 97-98 mph. He's been lights-out his past few outings, greatly enhancing his draft status, and is now being looked at as a guy who might even be able to close at the next level. Lance Lynn's name has been mentioned as a possibility as well.
Last week's projection: Schlereth

24. Philadelphia Phillies: Anthony Hewitt, SS, Salisbury School, Conn
The Phillies don't shy away from the toolsy high schoolers and Hewitt's got as much upside as anyone in the Draft. He may not be here at this point and if that's the case, the Phils could look at Collier or Martin should one of them be around. Lawrie would get some consideration and a sleeper could be Alabama high school product Destin Hood.
Last week's projection: Martin

25. Colorado Rockies: Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Highland HS, Ill.
Odorizzi's name moved steadily up the charts this spring as he continued to throw consistently well to the point where some thought of him as perhaps the best prep arm in the class. He might not be the first off the board, but word is that the Rockies would love to have him still be around at this slot.
Last week's projection: Ordorizzi

26. Arizona Diamondbacks: Josh Fields, RHP, University of Georgia
Another strong-armed college reliever (it appears to be a strength in this class), he might go above to a team looking for a short reliever who can move quickly. Fields had a sub-par junior season and went back to school rather than sign with the Braves via the second round last year. He was virtually unhittable in his senior season and though he's a Boras advisee, he should sign and move quickly, a la Matt LaPorta. If Fields is gone, Jemile Weeks is a strong possibility.
Last week's projection: Fields

27. Minnesota Twins: Brett DeVall, LHP, Niceville HS, Fla.
They took a college lefty at No. 14 in this edition, so why not a prep southpaw here at No. 27? DeVall's the best lefty in the high school ranks and a pretty advanced pitcher, so he could be seen as rather safe, at least as far as prep arms go. The Twins could also decide to make sure they get a local product, another prep lefty named Brad Hand.
Last week's projection: DeVall

28. New York Yankees: Brett Hunter, RHP, Pepperdine University
I'm not saying it's going to happen, but here's stating that it could. The Yankees don't shy away from risky injury picks (like Andrew Brackman a year ago). And while it might seem unlikely they'd go that route two years in a row, Hunter did return lately and was up to 94-95 mph during a regional start. If the Yankees are fairly convinced he's healthy, they could take a shot. Last week's pick, Cole, still could fit, and the Yankees probably wouldn't mind if someone like DeVall was still around.
Last week's projection: Cole

29. Cleveland Indians: Jemile Weeks, 2B, University of Miami
The indication is the Indians would like a college bat in this spot and Weeks is someone they hope is still here. There's a chance that he could go higher, leaving the Indians to figure out which of the advanced hitters fit best. For now, they don't have to worry about that.
Last week's projection: Weeks

30. Boston Red Sox: Lance Lynn, RHP, University of Mississippi
The Red Sox are willing to go in any direction at any point in the Draft, so this pick is anyone's guess. There'd been a lot of talk about South Carolina's Reese Havens, but Lynn's name has recently cropped up as a late-first-round candidate. He might go before this spot, but for now, he stays here.
Last week's projection: Lynn


06-03-2008, 12:18 PM
Why do the Reds prefer Alonso over Smoak? And why either of them if Beckham is still available?

06-03-2008, 12:20 PM
Mayo is going to hold a chat at noon.

Alonso wouldn't be a bad pick but I prefer Justin Smoak if they are going to select a first baseman. Smoak is a better defender and is a switch-hitter who has been compared to Lance Berkman. Alonso is more of a Jim Thome clone with huge power to all fields and possibly the best plate discipline in the draft. You really can't go wrong with either one though, still, if Matusz is on the board at No. 7, you have to select him IMO. All this talk about drafting a first baseman leads me to believe the Reds may be leaning toward trading Dunn and moving Votto to left field.

06-03-2008, 12:21 PM
I'd take a Jim Thome clone at 1B.

06-03-2008, 12:30 PM
Here are Alonso's 2008 stats:

.370/.536/.767 - 1.303 OPS with 10 doubles, 1 triple, and 21 homeruns in 189 atbats. Also has a remarkable 69 BB/30 K ratio.

06-03-2008, 12:39 PM
Its very troublesome unless this kid is a special special hitter.

06-03-2008, 12:41 PM
Its very troublesome unless this kid is a special special hitter.

Oh he is a pretty special hitter. He's got tons of power and probably the best plate discipline of all hitters in the draft. He really wouldn't be a bad pick at all unless the Reds pass on Brian Matusz for him. I still think they'll draft Gordon Beckham if he's available...

06-03-2008, 12:48 PM
Here's an article from BA on Alonso:

Far Yonder Power

Alonso's bat will get him noticed this June

By Walter Villa
April 10, 2008

MIAMI—He is from the same high school as Mike Lowell, has been compared to Tino Martinez and worked out for three weeks this past offseason with Alex Rodriguez.

He is Cuban native Yonder Alonso, Miami's slugging junior first baseman. Through 30 games, Alonso is hitting .362/.537/.660 with six homers and 29 RBIs, leading the Hurricanes to a 27-3 record and a No. 1 national ranking.

One of his biggest moments came recently. On Friday, he blasted a two-run, walk-off home run to beat Clemson, 6-4, in the ninth inning. The lefthanded-hitting Alonso hit the ball an estimated 450 feet, delivering it to the third floor of the parking garage that sits beyond the right-field fence.

It was the first walk-off homer of Alonso's college career. He also had a walk-off single against Wake Forest as a freshman.

"I can't feel my legs; I can't feel my head," an exuberant Alonso said after the Clemson game. "I feel on top of the world right now."

Alonso is also near the top of draft boards. In Baseball America's midseason list of the top 50 prospects—college or high school—for the 2008 draft, Alonso ranked No. 13.

An American League scout, who watched the Clemson performance, said he rates Alonso the No. 1 hitter in college this year. He also said that on the 20-80 scouting scale, Alonso is a 70 fielder.

"He doesn't run great," the scout said. "But he doesn't need to. The way he hits, he can trot."

Roots In The Game

Alonso comes from a baseball family. His father, Luis, was a catcher/first baseman for Industriales, considered the New York Yankees of Cuba.

When Luis and his wife Damaris had their first child in Havana, they "invented" the name Yonder. Years later, they learned how the English meaning of the name fit their son's far-away power.

"On the road, fans will tease me about my name," Alonso said. "They'll say, 'What were your parents thinking?' But I think it's special."

Equipped with his unique name, Alonso soon became a regular at his dad's games. The boy began playing as soon as he could walk, but since this was poverty-stricken Cuba, new equipment was scarce.

"The few baseballs Yonder got, he had to guard like gold," Luis Alonso said in Spanish. "When he tore the cover off, we just taped it up. The same with his glove. He had to sleep with that glove because he couldn't afford to lose it."
When Yonder was 7 years old, his life of struggle and simple pleasures gave way to hope and potential treasures.

On Feb. 10, 1995, Damaris' father, who had fled Cuba in the Mariel Boatlift of 1980, successfully petitioned the government to let his daughter and her family—Luis, Yonder and younger sister Yainee—join him in the United States.
Alonso quickly learned English and enjoyed a brilliant prep career. After a freshman year at Archbishop Carroll, Alonso starred at Coral Gables, Lowell's alma mater. And just like Lowell, Alonso played third base at the time.

In four years of prep ball, Alonso was a three-time all-Miami Dade player and twice was named to the all-state team, hitting over .400 every season and totaling 20 homers and 116 RBIs.

When it came time for the draft, teams such as the Reds, Pirates, Twins, Mets and Diamondbacks started calling in the fourth round, offering as much as $180,000. Alonso wanted to sign, but his father disagreed.

"I didn't care about the money," Yonder said. "I just wanted to play and prove to them that I was worth that and more."

The Twins finally drafted him in the 15th round and eventually increased their offer to $300,000, including college tuition money, but the Alonsos still said no.

"After they take out taxes and the agent gets his cut," Luis Alonso said, "what are you going to do with the rest? Buy a Toyota?"

Luis Alonso figured the Miami education was worth more than the Twins' final offer. And Yonder's development makes it a lock that he will get a much larger offer this summer.

Alonso's draft value stems from his power, clutch hitting, consistency and durability—he has started every game since arriving at UM and immediately shifting to first base.

As a freshman, he led the team in homers (10) and RBIs (69). As a sophomore, he was either first or tied for first in the ACC in homers (18), RBIs (74) and walks (64). He's drawn 38 walks and struck out just 15 times so far in 2008.

Big League Aspirations

Alonso earned a comparison to former major league first baseman Tino Martinez because both hit lefthanded and throw righthanded. At 6-foot-2 and 215 pounds, Alonso's stature is similar to the long-time Mariner and Yankee. Martinez also played his college ball in Florida (Tampa).

"If I could have as good a career as Tino Martinez, I would be happy," said Alonso of the player who hit 339 homers in 16 big league seasons. "He was a great player."

An even greater player is Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who mentored Alonso this past offseason.

Rodriguez, who played his high school ball in Miami, has donated millions to the Hurricanes' baseball program and works out at UM in the offseason. Alonso heard that A-Rod's workouts begin at 5 a.m., so he showed up early and introduced himself.

"I told him what I was about and that I wanted to do whatever workout he did—and beat him if I could," Alonso said. "He thought that was pretty funny, so he let me tag along."

The grueling workouts would typically last until noon, seven days a week.
"He doesn't take any breaks," said Alonso, who remembers winning one 40-yard race against A-Rod.

The two have remained close, talking twice a week, including a call after the walk-off homer against Clemson.

Alonso is majoring in criminology and could see himself one day as crime-scene investigator, like the actors on TV's "CSI: Miami."

But his main goal now is CWS Omaha.

"If we get to the College World Series and don't win," Alonso said, "it's pointless."


06-03-2008, 12:50 PM
has been compared to Tino Martinez

That doesn't seem like a very good comp for a guy who supposedly has big-time power.

06-03-2008, 12:56 PM
Maybe Walt is looking for the next Pujois at first base.

06-03-2008, 01:01 PM
I'd love to see us get Alonso. Great plate discipline, great power, and a pretty good glove too. Have bat, will travel.

Az. Reds Fan
06-03-2008, 01:04 PM
He seems to be more of an American league type player...although if Prince Fielder can cut it in the NL, Alonso probably can too...

He wouldn't be my first choice (Matusz, G Beckham, Smoak) but I wouldn't be devestated if he were the Reds choice.

06-03-2008, 01:04 PM
Smoak or broke 2008

I am begging to the baseball gods for that one.

06-03-2008, 01:13 PM
He seems to be more of an American league type player...although if Prince Fielder can cut it in the NL, Alonso probably can too...


He also said that on the 20-80 scouting scale, Alonso is a 70 fielder.

06-03-2008, 01:20 PM
Alonso wouldn't be my first choice, but he wouldn't be a bad choice either.

And I would prefere Smoak as well - he's got future Lance Berkman written all over him - power 1B switch hitter.

But both Alonso & Smoak can rake, has some serious power and is are excellent fielders.

Really Other than Crow's arm worring me - none of the Top 7-8 guys really seem like a bad pick.

06-03-2008, 01:50 PM
I'd much rather have Gordon Beckham if Matsuz and Crow are off the board. I think I'd prefer Smoak to Alonso as well.

06-03-2008, 02:15 PM
BTW Baseball Prospectus will hold their mock draft tomorrow and I'm sure Baseball America will post another here soon.

06-03-2008, 02:28 PM
Baseball America has had a pretty good read on the Reds the last couple drafts.

06-03-2008, 02:36 PM
Any chance Hosmer falls to us? Having watched the Youtube films of kids' swings, I don't see we could pass on Hosmer if he's there.

06-03-2008, 02:59 PM
Mayo is going to hold a chat at noon.

Alonso wouldn't be a bad pick but I prefer Justin Smoak if they are going to select a first baseman. Smoak is a better defender and is a switch-hitter who has been compared to Lance Berkman. Alonso is more of a Jim Thome clone with huge power to all fields and possibly the best plate discipline in the draft. You really can't go wrong with either one though, still, if Matusz is on the board at No. 7, you have to select him IMO. All this talk about drafting a first baseman leads me to believe the Reds may be leaning toward trading Dunn and moving Votto to left field.

Alonso and Lawrie what do they have in common? They may be the 2 closest bats to the majors and can flat out rake and fill a position created by Dunn being gone. Alonso at 1B and Votto to LF or Lawrie or Votto to LF and the other at 1st. Couple that with the fact Dunn hasn't heard from the F.O. on a LTC and it's now June. I hate to say it but it's looking that way.