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OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 10:34 AM
Brett Lawrie.

7. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are lining up to throw the first real curveball of the first round. They have been heavily scouting the top group of college sluggers, as well as Gordon Beckham, while also dreaming of a scenario that would drop either Matusz or Crow to them. However, a surprising new name has entered the mix—the Reds were in hard on Canadian prepster Brett Lawrie after he went off with eight home runs in eight games against professionals in the Dominican, and they came back with reports encouraging enough to prompt a quickly-scheduled private workout on Tuesday afternoon. As one scouting director put it, “If there’s anyone who can improve his stock with a private workout, it’s Lawrie.” Assuming all went as expected, the surprises start at lucky number seven. If they decide to play it safe, Alonso is currently at the top of their board.
Selection: Brett Lawrie, INF, Brookswood SS (BC)

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 10:41 AM
There is no doubt the kid is talented and is quickly rising up the draft boards, but I still can't see how the Reds could pass up one of the top college talents in favor of Lawrie. I'm going to be pretty disappointed if they select Lawrie over an Alonso, Smoak, Beckham, Crow, or Matusz.

camisadelgolf
06-04-2008, 10:43 AM
Hmmm, I don't know how much stock I'm willing to put in this. If the Reds pick Lawrie with Smoak, Alonso, and Crow on the board, RedsZone's minor league forum might just explode.

M2
06-04-2008, 10:47 AM
Hmmm, I don't know how much stock I'm willing to put in this. If the Reds pick Lawrie with Smoak, Alonso, and Crow on the board, RedsZone's minor league forum might just explode.

I won't hate the Lawrie pick if the Reds make it because I think he's got a lot of talent, but I'll be surprised if the team allows eight games in the Dominican and a private workout (the value of which I find highly dubious - I maintain teams see what they want to see in those things) to overtake talents that should have been at the top of their board for months.

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 10:50 AM
How old is Lawrie?

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 10:54 AM
I wonder what position the Reds envision Lawrie playing? Scouts think he has the tools to be a catcher but that would only slow his bat down. He's described as having above average speed, if so maybe he can handle center field or shortstop? If that's the case then I would like the pick a little more.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 10:54 AM
How old is Lawrie?

He turned 18 in January.

edabbs44
06-04-2008, 10:55 AM
I bet the commonality of some of these late risers is the fact that they will be an easy sign.

Mesoraco had that going for him last year.

NC Reds
06-04-2008, 10:58 AM
I won't hate the Lawrie pick if the Reds make it because I think he's got a lot of talent, but I'll be surprised if the team allows eight games in the Dominican and a private workout (the value of which I find highly dubious - I maintain teams see what they want to see in those things) to overtake talents that should have been at the top of their board for months.

I don't trust the private workout schema after the Gruler debacle. Tom Seaver my foot.

Kc61
06-04-2008, 11:01 AM
Reds spent money on the Duran kid. Maybe they don't plan to spend a lot on the first rounder.

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 11:02 AM
I may be in the minority but I like the pick. Kid has a great stick. I would rather have Alonso or Smoak but I would not be mad at all if he was the pick.

jojo
06-04-2008, 11:04 AM
I wonder what position the Reds envision Lawrie playing? Scouts think he has the tools to be a catcher but that would only slow his bat down. He's described as having above average speed, if so maybe he can handle center field or shortstop? If that's the case then I would like the pick a little more.

My guess is third base is as far right on the defensive spectrum as he'll end up. Really, it's his bat that's attracting all of the moths.

lollipopcurve
06-04-2008, 11:10 AM
Sounds like Lawrie or Alonso.......

My take is that they're projecting Lawrie as potentially the best RH bat in the draft. If the organization is leaning towards trying to sign Dunn, might it budge them more to Lawrie than to Alonso? But if they take Lawrie, where would they play him? I doubt it would be catcher, since that would likely slow his development quite a bit......

Much food for discussion in this year's #1 choice, that's for sure.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 11:11 AM
• Brett Lawrie's name continues to be sprinkled around liberally, being mentioned as an outside possibility to go as high as No. 7 to the Reds.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080604&content_id=2837388&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

BRM
06-04-2008, 11:21 AM
I bet the commonality of some of these late risers is the fact that they will be an easy sign.

Mesoraco had that going for him last year.

That would be business as usual on draft day for the Reds. I was really hoping to see that change.

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 11:28 AM
3 of the last 4 drafts the Reds have drafted a HSer that has been rocketing up draft boards(If this is true). Bruce, Mes, and Lawrie. One has worked out amazingly and the other one so far so good with Mes.

BRM
06-04-2008, 11:31 AM
3 of the last 4 drafts the Reds have drafted a HSer that has been rocketing up draft boards(If this is true). Bruce, Mes, and Lawrie. One has worked out amazingly and the other one so far so good with Mes.

Bruce and Mes were mid 1st rounders. If the Reds were to take Lawrie somewhere between 12-18, I'd be ecstatic. I'd just rather see a Crow, Beckham, Alonso, or Smoak with a top 10 pick. That said, I won't hate it if they end up selecting Lawrie.

M2
06-04-2008, 11:37 AM
I don't trust the private workout schema after the Gruler debacle. Tom Seaver my foot.

Exactly.

lollipopcurve
06-04-2008, 11:39 AM
As one scouting director put it, “If there’s anyone who can improve his stock with a private workout, it’s Lawrie.”

I really wonder what this means.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 11:39 AM
While I don't think Lawrie would be an awful pick, I'm still hoping for a big college talent at No. 7...someone who can help the Reds in two years or so. Gordon Beckham would be the ideal pick position player wise. The Reds lack a long-term shortstop who can both hit and field, and Gordon Beckham fits the bill. He's got plenty of power and plate discipline and could be the perfect number two hitter in front of Jay Bruce. Aaron Crow and Brian Matusz are also two guys who could help the Reds rotation very soon. Again, the Reds can't really go wrong with one of the top five or six consensus college talents.

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 11:40 AM
I really wonder what this means.I think it means he can put on a hell of a show with the stick in his hands.

lollipopcurve
06-04-2008, 11:44 AM
I think it means he can put on a hell of a show with the stick in his hands.

That's got to be it.

I remember they had Votto in for a private workout, too.

flyer85
06-04-2008, 11:51 AM
seeing as no one seems to be sure what his best position might be it also could allow a team to put him through some drills to get a better idea about his overall athleticism as well as his hands and feet and how that translates to what position he may be best suited for.

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 11:55 AM
Has BA had there mock draft yet?

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 11:55 AM
From reading all the reports and rankings, there appear to be eight kids that are head and shoulders above the rest.

1. T. Beckham
2. Alvarez
3. Posey
4. Matusz
5. Smoak
6. Crow
7. G. Beckham
8. Hosmer

All, but Gordon Beckham have pretty much been in that group for a while now. Beckham, undrafted out of high school blew up this year and shot up the lists.

T. Beckham, Alvarez, and Posey will likely be gone by the time the Reds pick at #7. That leaves them with Matusz, Smoak, Crow, G. Beckham, and even Hosmer. With those guys, they really are in a no-lose position at #7.

With that said, mark me as one that would be pleased with a Lawrie in the middle of the first, but not at #7. I would be disappointed that the Reds reach for a signable kid when there is a college arm or bat, with a quicker chance to make an impact on a team that is a year or two away.

MikeS21
06-04-2008, 11:56 AM
Crow is the guy I want, but I'm thinking he'll be gone before the Reds pick. Still, you would think they could do a little better at #7 than a last minute prepster "Johnny Come Lately."

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 11:57 AM
Has BA had there mock draft yet?

BA's last mock draft was on May 16th...they had the Reds drafting Aaron Crow. I'm really surprised they haven't come out with any more mock drafts since then.

edabbs44
06-04-2008, 12:00 PM
BA's last mock draft was on May 16th...they had the Reds drafting Aaron Crow. I'm really surprised they haven't come out with any more mock drafts since then.

I think they said they'll have another today.

But I think their coverage has been weak.

jojo
06-04-2008, 12:08 PM
BA's last mock draft was on May 16th...they had the Reds drafting Aaron Crow. I'm really surprised they haven't come out with any more mock drafts since then.

BP has posted their latest today and they have the Reds taking Lawrie at #7...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615

BTW, BP thinks the Rays will draft a catcher as the number 1 overall.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 12:11 PM
Here's a little piece from BA on Crow and Matusz:

• This just isn’t shaping up as a good draft for college pitchers. Fresno State’s Tanner Scheppers is out of the first-round mix with his shoulder injury, and Tulane’s Shooter Hunt, as indicated in last week’s Draft Tracker, has seen his stock slip of late. Now, even the two top college starters on the board, San Diego’s Brian Matusz and Missouri’s Aaron Crow, could be losing a little steam. It’s through nothing they did or didn’t do, but sources indicate the relative strength of the bats available toward the top of the draft was pushing Matusz and Crow down draft boards. Indications are now that Crow could slip all the way out of the Top 10 in some scenarios. Matusz could find a landing place as high as No. 4 with the Orioles, though Baltimore could opt for Beckham if he doesn’t go No. 1, or South Carolina first baseman Justin Smoak.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=286

Grande Donkey
06-04-2008, 12:18 PM
Lawrie's legend continues to grow as he tours with Canada's junior national team; he hit five home runs in a doubleheader against the Mariners' extended-spring team in the Dominican Republic, going foul pole to foul pole in a demonstration of one of the prep ranks' most pro-ready bats.

I like pro-ready HS bats.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/draft-tracker/2008/266183.html

WebScorpion
06-04-2008, 12:22 PM
From reading all the reports and rankings, there appear to be eight kids that are head and shoulders above the rest.

1. T. Beckham
2. Alvarez
3. Posey
4. Matusz
5. Smoak
6. Crow
7. G. Beckham
8. Hosmer

All, but Gordon Beckham have pretty much been in that group for a while now. Beckham, undrafted out of high school blew up this year and shot up the lists.

T. Beckham, Alvarez, and Posey will likely be gone by the time the Reds pick at #7. That leaves them with Matusz, Smoak, Crow, G. Beckham, and even Hosmer. With those guys, they really are in a no-lose position at #7.

With that said, mark me as one that would be pleased with a Lawrie in the middle of the first, but not at #7. I would be disappointed that the Reds reach for a signable kid when there is a college arm or bat, with a quicker chance to make an impact on a team that is a year or two away.

I think Kyle Skipworth should be included in that group. In fact, if the Reds took him, this might be the place to shop for catchers in 2012. ;) I'm sort of hoping for Posey, Matusz, or one of the Beckhams, but I'm guessing they'll all be gone by #7.

On a side note, I wonder how many of the 13 teams that passed on Jay Bruce are kicking themselves? Isn't he the same age as most of these college guys we're talking about? :eek:

jmcclain19
06-04-2008, 12:27 PM
Late comers to the scene aren't always a bad thing. That Jay Bruce guy wasn't a 1st round guy until weeks before the draft and he's turned out ok.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 12:31 PM
Hard to belive that Jay Bruce would be a junior in college right now.

Does anyone remember where he was going to school?

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 12:31 PM
Hard to belive that Jay Bruce would be a junior in college right now.

Does anyone remember where he was going to school?

Tulane.

AdamDunn
06-04-2008, 12:31 PM
Late comers to the scene aren't always a bad thing. That Jay Bruce guy wasn't a 1st round guy until weeks before the draft and he's turned out ok.

As mentioned, Jay Bruce was a mid-first round pick, not a top 10 pick.

M2
06-04-2008, 12:37 PM
Late comers to the scene aren't always a bad thing. That Jay Bruce guy wasn't a 1st round guy until weeks before the draft and he's turned out ok.

Actually he began to creep into 1st round projections in early April of that year. BA had him as their 11th overall HS talent on April 20 of that year and wrote this about him:

The biggest mover has been Jay Bruce, who has leapfrogged outfielders Jordan Danks, Austin Jackson and Kyle Russell to become the top position player in Texas.

“Bruce has been really impressive,” an NL crosschecker said. “He’s got five above-average tools; he can run and throw, and he has big power. We just need to see more playability.”

dougdirt
06-04-2008, 12:52 PM
As mentioned, Jay Bruce was a mid-first round pick, not a top 10 pick.

And in hindsight had he gone #1 or #2 overall it wouldn't be a bad pick.... sometimes the scouts just know more than we do on things like this.

flyer85
06-04-2008, 01:10 PM
And in hindsight had he gone #1 or #2 overall it wouldn't be a bad pick.... sometimes the scouts just know more than we do on things like this.or get lucky. There has a ton of talent in that 05 draft.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 01:25 PM
According to Chris Buckley, the Reds currently have four players in mind with the No. 7 pick tomorrow. Those four players are Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and Yonder Alonso. I like Matusz the most out of those four but he and Posey will most likely be off the board by the time the Reds pick. So realistically it looks like the Reds pick will either be Gordon Beckham or Yonder Alonso. Either one is fine with me but I prefer Beckham to Alonso since he's a shortstop.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 01:27 PM
I was looking at the baseballcube's draft coverage and there are only a handful of top HS kids that declined the money in 2005.


#87 Kyle Hancock (COL) - RHP. Turns down the 460K after signing, spending two days with rookie team, and then quitting. Tries to get into Arkansas but NCAA turns him down. I have no idea where he is now. Interesting story below.

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/spt/stories/041306dnspohancock.172082f5.html


#104 Josh Lindblom (HOU) - RHP, Purdue. Chose Tennessee over signing with Astros. Transferred to Purdue. Could go in top 2 rounds.


#133 Brian Matusz (ANA) - LHP, San Diego. Projected: Top 10 pick.


#173 Lance Lynn (SEA) - RHP, Ole Miss. Projected: late 1st, early 2nd.


#235 Jemille Weeks (MIL) - 2b, Miami. Projected: late 1st, early 2nd.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 01:28 PM
According to Chris Buckley, the Reds currently have four players in mind with the No. 7 pick tomorrow. Those four players are Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and Yonder Alonso. I like Matusz the most out of those four but he and Posey will most likely be off the board by the time the Reds pick. So realistically it looks like the Reds pick will either be Gordon Beckham or Yonder Alonso. Either one is fine with me but I prefer Beckham to Alonso since he's a shortstop.

Great news, if true.

M2
06-04-2008, 01:34 PM
According to Chris Buckley, the Reds currently have four players in mind with the No. 7 pick tomorrow. Those four players are Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and Yonder Alonso. I like Matusz the most out of those four but he and Posey will most likely be off the board by the time the Reds pick. So realistically it looks like the Reds pick will either be Gordon Beckham or Yonder Alonso. Either one is fine with me but I prefer Beckham to Alonso since he's a shortstop.

Hmm, no Crow? I wonder if that means he's not on their list or if Buckley's got the kid's name already tatooed on a discreet part of his body.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 01:36 PM
FWIW, Yahoo's mock draft has the Reds taking Crow.

7. Cincinnati Reds – Aaron Crow, RHP (Missouri): Scouts are split on whether Crow is best suited for the starting rotation or the back of the bullpen, but the Reds would have room for him in either role. Crow throws a heavy mid-90s sinker and also possesses a slider that’s ready for prime time right now. He might be the player closest to the big leagues in the entire draft.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AmGU3EPoeFT3P2d7kn1UUisRvLYF?slug=sh-mockdraft060308&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 01:48 PM
The more I think of it the more I want Gordon Beckham unless Brian Matusz is still on the board. This is a guy that slugged nine homeruns and hit .284/.370/.529 with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod league last summer. He's got an above average arm and good range meaning he should stick at SS. This is a guy I think the Reds could draft tomorrow and immediately start him in Sarasota and he's succeed. Beckham would also solidify the Reds infield for years to come with Votto at 1B, Phillips at 2B, Beckham at SS, and either EdE or Todd Frazier at 3B.

11larkin11
06-04-2008, 01:53 PM
The more I think of it the more I want Gordon Beckham unless Brian Matusz is still on the board. This is a guy that slugged nine homeruns and hit .284/.370/.529 with a wooden bat in the Cape Cod league last summer. He's got an above average arm and good range meaning he should stick at SS. This is a guy I think the Reds could draft tomorrow and immediately start him in Sarasota and he's succeed. Beckham would also solidify the Reds infield for years to come with Votto at 1B, Phillips at 2B, Beckham at SS, and either EdE or Todd Frazier at 3B.

Aside from Matusz, who I want the most of the guys I think will be there, Beckham is also my number two, if he can reach the majors by 2010 and if he can truly stick at SS. I still really like Smoak because of his switch hitting abilities, I like Alonso because of his great plate discipline, and the line about Crow being the closest to the majors of any player in the draft really caught my eye. Any of those 5 and I'm jumping for joy. Matusz the most though;)

11larkin11
06-04-2008, 02:49 PM
Heres a question I pose to you experts: Saberscouting has Tanner Scheppers ranked 60th overall now. If he is still there at 84, do you take him?

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 03:04 PM
Here are a couple Reds related draft questions from an ESPN chat:

The first question is mine:

Brandon, Charleston, WV: Are the Reds really thinking of drafting Brett Lawrie at #7? And what position do you think he'll play?

SportsNation John Manuel: (2:37 PM ET ) Actually I don't think they will take him but they wouldn't be bringing him in for a workout if they weren't considering him there. For me, he's only a value at 7 if he's a C. I don't think he's a C. He has the tools for C but I'm not sure he has the temperament to C, plus his bat's probably too good to leave him in the low minors to learn not only to receive premium velocity and pro stuff, but also to learn to read hitters, go over scouting reports with pitchers, call his own game, etc. I think he's a 3B for the Reds and for many other teams, and I think he goes in the first 15 picks, but 7 is a bit high for him, in my humble opinion.

Marshall, Cincy: Where would Daryl Thompson be on the top 100 list if published today? As a Reds fan, should I be hoping for Matusz or Crow or neither?

SportsNation John Manuel: (2:57 PM ET ) I like Thompson but he's had shoulder surgery in the past so if he's top 100 it would be toward the back -- short track record of success plus shoulder surgery makes me wary. Matusz is generally considered the better prospect: I like both but Crow works off the fastball more and personally that's what I look for in a P.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20909

IslandRed
06-04-2008, 03:04 PM
Hmm, no Crow? I wonder if that means he's not on their list or if Buckley's got the kid's name already tatooed on a discreet part of his body.

They've definitely been doing their best to smokescreen their intentions. Wasn't it last week that Casey Kelly was supposedly the possible surprise at #7?

I'm not sure if all the subterfuge is worth the trouble; it's not like a team can trade up to snag the player the Reds really want from under their noses. Maybe they're trying to keep bonus demands in line by not promising anyone up front he'll be the pick. Dunno.

edabbs44
06-04-2008, 03:07 PM
According to Chris Buckley, the Reds currently have four players in mind with the No. 7 pick tomorrow. Those four players are Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, and Yonder Alonso. I like Matusz the most out of those four but he and Posey will most likely be off the board by the time the Reds pick. So realistically it looks like the Reds pick will either be Gordon Beckham or Yonder Alonso. Either one is fine with me but I prefer Beckham to Alonso since he's a shortstop.

I would be happy with Matusz, Posey or Beckham. Alonso, not so much.

I kind of wish I saw one or two other pitchers names in there.

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 03:11 PM
Other Reds related questions:

Brian (Bainbridge, Wa): Is the Reds interest in Brett Lawrie a tactic admission that Devin Mesoraco, another catcher and their number one pick last year, has no future in the organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:52 PM ET ) Wow, not at all. I doubt they view Lawrie as a catcher - if they're taking him 7, it's because they love his bat.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20912

cincyinco
06-04-2008, 03:21 PM
I think they said they'll have another today.

But I think their coverage has been weak.

Weaker than my pick em 7 thread... poor year for them, mock draft wise. Although their top 200 prospects for the draft with scouting report seems to have stepped it up a notch. they also have video's for the top 200 i believe.

fearofpopvol1
06-04-2008, 03:31 PM
The Kelly and Lawrie talks are making me quite nervous. The Reds cannot afford to botch this pick and not that Lawrie would be a botch, but they can do better than him.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-04-2008, 04:23 PM
Heres a question I pose to you experts: Saberscouting has Tanner Scheppers ranked 60th overall now. If he is still there at 84, do you take him?

Keith Law has him at #75.

If we take a bat at #7, I'd take him at #84.

dougdirt
06-04-2008, 04:32 PM
Other Reds related questions:

Brian (Bainbridge, Wa): Is the Reds interest in Brett Lawrie a tactic admission that Devin Mesoraco, another catcher and their number one pick last year, has no future in the organization?

SportsNation Keith Law: (2:52 PM ET ) Wow, not at all. I doubt they view Lawrie as a catcher - if they're taking him 7, it's because they love his bat.

http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=20912

Brian from Bainbridge, WA..... you need to have your head checked. 19 year old catcher with an .823 OPS in the Midwest League has no future in the organization?

JaxRed
06-04-2008, 05:25 PM
It was just a "tactic" admission from Brian......:)

Mario-Rijo
06-04-2008, 08:49 PM
The Kelly and Lawrie talks are making me quite nervous. The Reds cannot afford to botch this pick and not that Lawrie would be a botch, but they can do better than him.

I don't know, if his bat is this good this young isn't possible he will be just as good if not better than say Smoak & Alonso down the road? What I mean is doesn't he represent better value if his offense is just as good and he offers better defensive versatility than either and at a cheaper price? I guess if Beckham or one of the pitchers are there they would likely take one of them. But if it came down to Smoak, Alonso, Hunt, Hosmer & Lawrie is it that much of a difference long term?

Of course I understand Alonso & Smoak are not far off (which I prefer) but if this kid is going to be just as good if not a better overall player eventually and is cheaper why shouldn't he be considered here?

OnBaseMachine
06-04-2008, 10:13 PM
It's amazing. The draft is tomorrow and yet not one thing has been written about it on the Reds website or the DDN or the Enquirer, except for a little blog from Fay today.

Az. Reds Fan
06-04-2008, 10:19 PM
A great read and interview with Lawrie on Baseball Analysts...

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/06/brett_lawrie.php

Blitz Dorsey
06-04-2008, 11:10 PM
Oh crap, this is kind of what I was afraid of. The Reds thinking they are smarter than everyone and only they know the immense talent of Brett Lawrie.

I really want a college pitcher. I need to start preparing myself for disappointment. Let's keep in mind we took two OFs and a C with our last three first round picks (one of those worked out pretty well wouldn't you say). It's more than time to take a pitcher. If Crow or Matusz is there and we take a high school SS that only the Reds have ranked that highly, well, I am going to be Drew Stubbs upset. It's going to be like a flashback to two years ago.

Blitz Dorsey
06-04-2008, 11:16 PM
BP has posted their latest today and they have the Reds taking Lawrie at #7...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615

BTW, BP thinks the Rays will draft a catcher as the number 1 overall.

BP either knows something that no one else does, or that mock draft is complete crap. They have several teams (like the Reds) taking huge risks in the top 10. No way some of the top guys like Smoak fall as far as BP is saying.

jmcclain19
06-05-2008, 02:29 AM
BP either knows something that no one else does, or that mock draft is complete crap. They have several teams (like the Reds) taking huge risks in the top 10. No way some of the top guys like Smoak fall as far as BP is saying.

FWIW - Jim Callis of Baseball America has been nearly spot on the last 4 years with his mock drafts he does the morning of.

I think it was 2 years ago he got nearly everyone right.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 08:44 AM
FWIW - Jim Callis of Baseball America has been nearly spot on the last 4 years with his mock drafts he does the morning of.

I think it was 2 years ago he got nearly everyone right.

The problem with Callis' mock draft is that it comes out like 1 hour before the first pick. Mock drafts are pretty much useless at that point. I wish they'd put out a weekly mock leading up to the draft.

IslandRed
06-05-2008, 09:03 AM
The problem with Callis' mock draft is that it comes out like 1 hour before the first pick. Mock drafts are pretty much useless at that point. I wish they'd put out a weekly mock leading up to the draft.

Well, all mock drafts are a waste of time to some point; we could argue that most of them are based on dated thinking and just pure guesses, rendering them flights of fantasy more than a useful tool. Guess wrong about what Tampa does at #1 and the entire board changes. But heck, I like 'em anyway.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 09:08 AM
Well, all mock drafts are a waste of time to some point; we could argue that most of them are based on dated thinking and just pure guesses, rendering them flights of fantasy more than a useful tool. Guess wrong about what Tampa does at #1 and the entire board changes. But heck, I like 'em anyway.

Mock drafts are useful as a way to generate discussion and debate. Putting out a mock draft right before the draft kicks off is basically self-serving, like "Look how many I can get right". Put it out at least the day before so that people can actually read and absorb what they are saying.

Blitz Dorsey
06-05-2008, 09:17 AM
Obviously if he is putting out a revised "mock draft" an hour before the draft, he has sources telling him exactly where certain players are going to go. That is not really a mock draft, that is just repeating what you've been told. I agree it would be impressive if he could do it at least a day before the draft.

He gets credit for having good sources, but then again the MLB draft has been notorious for letting the cat out of the bag early. It seems like every year the picks leak out early for whatever reason.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 09:18 AM
Obviously if he is putting out a revised "mock draft" an hour before the draft, he has sources telling him exactly where certain players are going to go. That is not really a mock draft, that is just repeating what you've been told. I agree it would be impressive if he could do it at least a day before the draft.

He gets credit for having good sources, but then again the MLB draft has been notorious for letting the cat out of the bag early. It seems like every year the picks leak out early for whatever reason.

Exactly...he should blog the info he gets directly before the draft but put out his final mock a day or two before.

jojo
06-05-2008, 10:04 AM
BP either knows something that no one else does, or that mock draft is complete crap. They have several teams (like the Reds) taking huge risks in the top 10. No way some of the top guys like Smoak fall as far as BP is saying.


Well BP is like any other entity that relies upon "sources" for "inside information". They're just as likely to be used as a tool by their sources. Then there is also the subjective opinion of the writers on top of it....

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 10:09 AM
Buster Posey is asking 12 million dollars! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. His agents are going to have that bluffed called by every team in the draft. The record for a catcher is 5 million bucks and Matt Weiters was a MUCH better prospect coming into the draft than Posey is.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 10:54 AM
Draft: Talent is top need
Position, shmosition; Reds say they'll go 'best available' route
BY JOHN FAY | JFAY@ENQUIRER.COM

PHILADELPHIA - Call it the Jay Bruce Philosophy. The Reds will pick the best player available today in the annual draft, regardless of position.

When they picked Bruce in the first round in 2005, no one saw outfield as a pressing need, but the Bruce pick worked out pretty well.

"You want to go for value," scouting director Chris Buckley said. "(General manager Walt Jocketty) can trade anybody. The needs right now for the Reds might not be the same as they are in three years."

The Reds pick seventh in the first round. Buckley said the club is focused on four players for that pick:

Brian Matusz, a left-handed pitcher from the University of San Diego: He is the No. 2-rated player in the draft overall by Baseball America. He was a fourth-round pick out of high school. He throws up to 93 mph, but his off-speed stuff sets him apart.

Buster Posey, a catcher from Florida State, rated No. 4 by BA: He's a converted shortstop. Baseball America calls him "one of the safest picks in this year's draft. His projection as an offensive catcher with Gold Glove-caliber defense has boosted Posey's draft stock as much as anyone's over the weeks leading up to the draft."

Gordon Beckham, a shortstop from Georgia, rated No. 6 by BA: His background is the same as Jeff Keppinger's. Beckham won the home run title last year in the prestigious Cape Cod League. He's been among the leading hitters in the NCAA, both in average and home runs.

Yonder Alonso, a first baseman from Miami (Fla.), rated No. 10 by BA: He drove in 69 runs as a freshman and hit .376 with 18 homers as a sophomore.

The Reds cleared a spot on their 40-man roster Wednesday, so if they offer the top pick a big-league contract, they have a place to put him.

The ability to sign players greatly affects the draft.

"We've been talking to agents, seeing where guys stand," Buckley said.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/AB/20080605/SPT04/806050400/

jmcclain19
06-05-2008, 12:20 PM
Buster Posey is asking 12 million dollars! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA. His agents are going to have that bluffed called by every team in the draft. The record for a catcher is 5 million bucks and Matt Weiters was a MUCH better prospect coming into the draft than Posey is.

Wieters is a better hitter but I'm not sure if I would call him a better catcher.

But the 12 million request is beyond ridiculous - makes me think much less of Posey.

Bad enough that Florida State has him playing the part of gimmick player and fielding all 9 positions in one night.

Blitz Dorsey
06-05-2008, 01:53 PM
Typical of Fay to say something stupid like "his background is the same as Jeff Keppinger's" when referring to Gordon Beckham. Uh John, just because they are infielders from the same school doesn't make their backgrounds similar. At least not in the way he used it. Beckham is obviously one of the top 10 picks in the draft, while Keppinger was a fourth-round pick and looked to be a career minor leaguer until he landed with the Reds last year. I would say coming out of school, their "backgrounds" are much different. Unless every player from Georgia is considered to have the same background.