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red-in-la
06-04-2008, 09:41 PM
Well, is this too soon to ask? 10 games back and maybe (probably) more before the Reds get back home. If they are in a race for the Wild Card, then they could still be almost 10 games back of either St. Louis or Florida.

What happens when they are too far back to make a run at the playoffs?

JR traded? ..... Dunn? .......Harang? ......Arroyo?

Bailey will already up (apparently), do other get the call?

Always Red
06-04-2008, 09:45 PM
I truly thought the Reds were out of it by Memorial Day last year, and they were 9.5 games out.

They are 10 out now, but I think are a slightly better team than they were last year.

One thing they have going for them- it's the Cubs that are in first place. You know they will find a way to mess things up somewhere along the line.

Falls City Beer
06-04-2008, 09:45 PM
The Reds are out of it, pretty much everything--division, Wild Card. They're toast. But they are looking better, I have to say.

RedsManRick
06-04-2008, 09:53 PM
The Reds would have to play better baseball than any team in the NL has played so far in order to win 90 games. That should tell you all you need to know.

SMcGavin
06-04-2008, 10:06 PM
The Reds would have to play better baseball than any team in the NL has played so far in order to win 90 games. That should tell you all you need to know.

Actually the Cubs have played .644 ball, if the Reds do that over their last 103 games they win 66 more games. Would end up with 94 wins.

I think it's highly unlikely the Reds are going anywhere but I wouldn't write off the Wild Card yet. A lot of that is because the only two teams that are significantly ahead of the Reds in that race are St. Louis and Florida, teams who I think are unlikely to keep up their current pace. So I don't think it's over yet, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

And to answer the original question, when the Reds fall too far back I think Dunn gets traded. I really hope he doesn't, but I'm starting to get that feeling.

RedsManRick
06-04-2008, 10:18 PM
Actually the Cubs have played .644 ball, if the Reds do that over their last 103 games they win 66 more games. Would end up with 94 wins.

Oops... how'd I manage that. Still pretty unlikely that we're going to put together that sort of run...

red-in-la
06-04-2008, 10:30 PM
So how long before WJ realize what we already know? How long before he makes some sort of "look to the future" type moves?

Highlifeman21
06-04-2008, 10:40 PM
So how long before WJ realize what we already know? How long before he makes some sort of "look to the future" type moves?

He needs to make moves yesterday.

The status quo will not work for this organization.

Hoping all the kids develop for 2009 is a fatal "eggs in one basket" plan.

dougdirt
06-04-2008, 10:51 PM
He needs to make moves yesterday.

The status quo will not work for this organization.

Hoping all the kids develop for 2009 is a fatal "eggs in one basket" plan.

What kids need to 'develop'? Votto, Bruce, Cueto, Volquez are all doing it at the major league level. Harang, Arroyo, Phillips and the bullpen are here.

Scrap Irony
06-04-2008, 10:55 PM
The pen isn't that good. Yes, it's better than last year's, but almost any would be. Roenicke and/ or a combination of Thompson, Maloney need to continue being good as they're called up, whether it be September or as others get dealt. Dorn and possibly Cumberland need to hit well for a possible September call-up or at least a move to AAA as the draft shakes things up.

If Dunn goes, so goes the season. But it gives me hope that Krivsky was canned for not winning. Castellini knows that dealing Dunn will involve even more losing, so at least that's not bad. Right?

SMcGavin
06-04-2008, 11:11 PM
Oops... how'd I manage that. Still pretty unlikely that we're going to put together that sort of run...

Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.

Cyclone792
06-04-2008, 11:17 PM
Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.

This current string of games against NL East teams is actually pretty important if one is looking at the Wild Card. The Reds closed some ground on the Braves with the sweep over the weekend, and they'll have a chance to close some ground on Florida this week. Plus if they can win tomorrow, they won't lose ground to the Phillies, though I think Philly is the favorite to win the East.

The only way the Reds can catch the Cubs at this point is to blow them out head-to-head and go on a nice tear to finish the season.

oregonred
06-04-2008, 11:20 PM
Agreed. It'd take .600 ball from here on out to win 90 games, which is also unlikely. I'm not convinced it's going to take 90 wins to take the Wild Card though. I don't think the Reds will take it but I could see staying in the conversation for most of the season.

Give the Phils the NL East. 2nd in the NL West may be lucky to get 82 wins.

Then only threats to win 90 outside of the division winners would be the NL East runner-up. Specifically the Braves/Mets. This assumes pretenders like the Marlins/Cards find there way back to .500 or less teams (like they should be).

The Reds can finish 2nd in the NL Central and on paper with a staff getting much better and Bruce Almighty in the lineup, I see no reason they couldn't stay in the WC race late in the year.

paulrichjr
06-04-2008, 11:30 PM
Rockies 2007 - :wave:

VR
06-04-2008, 11:53 PM
The Reds have for many years strung out the first few months just enough to give the team a glimmer of hope.
The reality was the pitching staff was made up of a bunch of wannabees, the bullpen had absolutely no credibility, and there was no one ready to help.

This team has two solid top of the rotation starters, an acceptable # 3 starter, and the possibilities at #4 of a future star as well. #5 Has been a black hole, but if they gain some ground there will be plenty of options to acquire one if necessary. Those top 4 starters also possess very very good peripherals, giving good reason to expect their performance as a group to improve on the results so far.


The offense is still a bit sketchy and inconsistent. But if Griff finds his swing, Freel, Kepp and Gonzo return....a lot of problems are fixed, and they also have some tremendous depth on the bench. Perhaps DB can actually come to his senses on lineup construction and throw out a 2-5 of Bruce, Votto, Dunn and Griff vs. righties. That would be scary.

Marc D
06-05-2008, 12:15 AM
Since 5/5/08 this team has gone 18-11 (.621).

They can play .600 ball for long periods and if they can do it up to the end they'll come in at 90 wins. 90 wins will have them in the hunt for something. Even if it doesn't its a good taste for the youngsters to have a psuedo pennant race.

First step is to get to .500 overall however.

schroomytunes
06-05-2008, 12:16 AM
Its not even the end of June yet! Come On give these guys a chance to jell together, we are playing decent ball right now...but we still need to improve in some areas. 1)Offensively 2)#5 Starter 3)Defensively

We need our injured guys back:
Freel in---patterson out
Keppinger in---Janish out
Gonzalez in---Bako out
--thats 3 more righties on the roster!!!!!

We need a #5 starter to emerge more so than other clubs #5's, we need to make up some ground and we have to at least be .500 here, cause the guys up front will be good!!! Hopefully one of Bailey, Maloney, Thompson will emerge.

I would look to peddle these guys:

1)David Weathers-promote Roenicke.
2)Griffey-someone will need a DH.
--everyone else has some value or is either not worth a bag of balls(ie Fogg)

PuffyPig
06-05-2008, 12:22 AM
We are only 6 back in the wild card,and that is the Cards.

4 back of the Marlins.

3 back of the Brewers.

2 of the Mets.

The better teams are just ahead of us.

redsfaninbsg
06-05-2008, 12:29 AM
As I've stated before if they can make it through the month of June they'll have a shot. I really expect them to be all but dead at the end of this month though.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 12:29 AM
I don't think the Reds can win the division because as much as it pains me to say it, the Cubs are a darn good baseball team. The wildcard, however, is another story. This team is talented enough to compete for the wildcard spot. I don't think we need to worry about anyone from the NL West winning the wildcard. In the Central I think the Reds are the second most talented team behind the Astros. In the East I think the Phillies will win the division. The Marlins have a good offense but they don't have the pitching to keep winning at the rate they are IMO. Same with the Braves. Losing Smoltz just about kills them. The Mets are overrated. Delgado looks finished. Pedro has been hurt. Oliver Perez is can't find his command. I'm just not too worried about them.

I think this Reds team has a chance to get even better in the second half. Josh Roenicke should give the pen a big boost in the second half. I think Johnny Cueto is only going to get better as the season progresses. Homer Bailey is taking over for Josh Fogg in the fifth starter role. He's got the talent to be a good pitcher this year but if he shows he's still not ready then he could soon be replaced with Daryl Thompson. The offense could get better if Griffey comes back swinging the bat like he did over the past week. Jeff Keppinger will soon be back and give the offense another solid bat. I believe Encarnacion is going to have a solid second half and finish with an OPS around .850 or better. This is a team I think is capable of 85-87 wins. Just stay around .500 at the ASB and they'll win 85-87 IMO.

guttle11
06-05-2008, 12:31 AM
Way too early to look at the WC. I wouldn't even bother with that until right around the all-star break, when the final "buy/sell" decisions have to be made. There's just too many teams in the mix. There will probably still be 4 or 5 teams within 6 games of the WC on August 1st.

As for the division, it's all up to the Cubs. If they just play .500 ball the rest of the way, they'll lock up the Central pretty early. I think the Pirates and Astros are virtual locks to fall back, so if the Cubs have injuries or simply struggle for a month, the Brewers, Cards, and Reds can all get back in the race.

The Reds just have to keep taking 6 of every 10. If that happens, they'll get back in one or both races by deadline time.

oregonred
06-05-2008, 12:34 AM
Consider this...

Staff ERA is now down to 4.38.

NL Average = 4.22

Staff ERA w/out Fogg's numbers = 4.07

Staff ERA w/out Fogg/Belisle (#5 starters) = 3.87

Staff easily maintaining its #1 slot in K/9 IP by almost half a strikeout per game. Interesting to note the Cardinals are last in the league.

Staff is second in K/BB ratio (Arizona)

VR
06-05-2008, 12:37 AM
Consider this...

Staff ERA is now down to 4.38.

NL Average = 4.22

Staff ERA w/out Fogg's numbers = 4.07

Staff ERA w/out Fogg/Belisle (#5 starters) = 3.87

Staff easily maintaining its #1 slot in K/9 IP by almost half a strikeout per game. Interesting to note the Cardinals are last in the league.

Staff is second in K/BB ratio (Arizona)


nice

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 12:40 AM
Consider this...

Staff ERA is now down to 4.38.

NL Average = 4.22

Staff ERA w/out Fogg's numbers = 4.07

Staff ERA w/out Fogg/Belisle (#5 starters) = 3.87

Staff easily maintaining its #1 slot in K/9 IP by almost half a strikeout per game. Interesting to note the Cardinals are last in the league.

Staff is second in K/BB ratio (Arizona)

Good stuff. Taking Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle out and replacing them is a big improvement itself. Bailey clearly has the better talent of the three. I don't think he's ready yet but if he can pitch like he did in September last year then I would take it. If he doesn't succeed then look for Daryl Thompson to replace him.

Another simple improvement to the staff is replacing Weathers with Roenicke.

guttle11
06-05-2008, 12:45 AM
Put a 4.50 ERA in place of Belisle/Fogg, and this team is probably over .500 right now.

Can Homer/Maloney/Thompson put that up? Probably not. But if they do...

oregonred
06-05-2008, 01:13 AM
I didn't appreciate the suckitude of the 5th slot until you realize

Fogg has pitched 5% of the staff innings, but has allowed almost 12% of the earned runs against

Belisle has pitched 5% of the staff innings and has allowed about 9% of the earned runs against. Compared to Fogg, I guess he is 50% better :)

5th starters: 10% of the staff innings and 20%+ of the runs. Not to mention the taxing on the pen likely leading to other poor pitching performances not even accounted for in the 10% innings/20% runs suckitude ratio.

Of course the other way to look at this is that without Volquez' 75IP of magic the staff ERA is closer to 4.9 (14% of the innings and 4% of the staff's earned runs -- that's insane production)

VR
06-05-2008, 01:23 AM
Good thread....all this brainstorming allowed them to pick up a game today and are only 9 back now.:thumbup:

WVRedsFan
06-05-2008, 02:07 AM
In my opinion, the Reds should concentrate on havding a winning season. If something better comes out of it, so be it.

You never give up. the Cubs amaze me intht they are so far ahead. I can't put a finger on why. The Cardinals just have to fade. Surely. The Astros are falling fast, and once again, I don't know how they are winning what they are winning. We have a chance at finishing second, but like I said, the concentration needs to be on winning and let the rest take care of itself.

I really do not look for Dunn or Griffey to be traded. No one wants them unless we give them away. I'm not for that. I do see some players offered up for trade but the multi-year unwise contracts of some of them make them hard to trade. Regardless, this is not a team that the faithful should get all excited about seeing in the World Series. The emphasis should be to erase that 7 year losing record string. That's enough for this year.

RedlegJake
06-05-2008, 02:30 AM
I never give up. Ever. I'll hope for and root for a title until the math says its over. But that's a fan.

If I was the owner, though, this would not be the year to be a seller at the deadline regardless of the team's record. The talent is here, the future is near.

If signing Dunn is in the plans then I don't trade him. If he isn't then fine, shop him but not as a result of the team's record but because that was the plan all along as opposed to signing him.

If they are out of it by all reasonable expectation at the deadline then I instruct my GM to be a buyer of the parts we need for next season - and maybe that means trading off a player or two to get those parts.

Look hard at the sellers like KC or SD or Texas for pieces of the puzzle and at the same time be talking to the buyers like the Yankees, Bosox and Jays. If we can get them to overpay for a player they need then heck yeah...grab that opportunity. In other words work both sides of the market to improve the roster for next year.

mth123
06-05-2008, 07:52 AM
In my opinion, the Reds should concentrate on havding a winning season. If something better comes out of it, so be it.

You never give up. the Cubs amaze me intht they are so far ahead. I can't put a finger on why. The Cardinals just have to fade. Surely. The Astros are falling fast, and once again, I don't know how they are winning what they are winning. We have a chance at finishing second, but like I said, the concentration needs to be on winning and let the rest take care of itself.

I really do not look for Dunn or Griffey to be traded. No one wants them unless we give them away. I'm not for that. I do see some players offered up for trade but the multi-year unwise contracts of some of them make them hard to trade. Regardless, this is not a team that the faithful should get all excited about seeing in the World Series. The emphasis should be to erase that 7 year losing record string. That's enough for this year.


I pretty much agree that this team try to win even if playoffs are not likely. A winning season and at least some sniff of contention for a post season run is good for the development of the kids. BTW, Votto, Phillips (still a kid IMO), Keppinger (also still a kid), Janish, EdE (another kid), Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Burton, Bray, Herrera, and now Bailey are already on the roster. They really don't need a whole lot more in the way of kids. The future has begun. Now these kids need to grow and come together as a winning team. There eventually will be some vet subtractions (Griffey, Weathers, maybe the catchers and Gonzalez) but none of these guys are central figures to this team winning in 2008 or in the future IMO. They could all be dumped for something else and it would not be a white flag move. What this team needs to do more than anything is win every game it can without dumping kids for stopgap vets. If one of the young vets (say EdE for example) can be dealt along with a couple minor leaguers (none of the ones on hand, but maybe of the Valaika, Strait, Maloney variety) to add another foundation piece for Catcher, SS or the OF then I'd say do it. This team does not need to deal Harang or even Arroyo unless its completely overwhelmed. In Harang's case it would take a ton to be overwhelmed IMO.

And, oh yeah BTW, sign Adam Dunn. Dealing him because they aren't bringing him back would be the only somewhat probable move that would indicate a white flag for 2008. I think this team has the right foundation now and that includes Dunn. Dealing Dunn or letting him walk puts a hole in the foundation and delays winning IMO.

blumj
06-05-2008, 08:34 AM
You never give up. the Cubs amaze me intht they are so far ahead. I can't put a finger on why.
Eight more home games than road games so far. A tough road trip or 2 should bring them a little closer to the rest of the pack. Actually, that's been the pattern this season all around MLB. Almost everyone's winning at home, almost no one's winning on the road.

redsmetz
06-05-2008, 09:26 AM
If the question is how far back is too far back, we need to remember baseball has had historic comebacks before. Granted, they are extremely rare, but it has been done. It takes an incredible string of great ball playing and even help from your foes, but here's a link to five historic comebacks:

http://nation.bodoglife.com/sports-betting-news/mlb-futures-five-great-comebacks-to-remember.html

cumberlandreds
06-05-2008, 09:36 AM
In 1973 the Reds came back from 11 1/2 games behind on July 1 to win the west. But that Reds team was much better than this one. I think a realistic goal for this team is to be a .500 team this season and build from that for next season.

Cyclone792
06-05-2008, 09:37 AM
You never give up. the Cubs amaze me intht they are so far ahead. I can't put a finger on why. The Cardinals just have to fade. Surely. The Astros are falling fast, and once again, I don't know how they are winning what they are winning. We have a chance at finishing second, but like I said, the concentration needs to be on winning and let the rest take care of itself.

The one thing that is to the Reds advantage in the division race rather than the wildcard race are the head-to-head matchups. The quickest way to gain ground on a team ahead of you is to simply beat them head-to-head. This is what we have so far:

Cubs: 9 games remaining
Cardinals: 12 games remaining, including 3 next week
Astros: 13 games remaining
Brewers: 12 games remaining
Pirates: 9 games remaining (not that I think they'll be anywhere near contention)

In the near future, the best case (and realistic) scenario is to win today for a split in Philadelphia, take 3 of 4 from Florida and 2 of 3 from the Cardinals.

vaticanplum
06-05-2008, 09:59 AM
One thing they have going for them- it's the Cubs that are in first place. You know they will find a way to mess things up somewhere along the line.

The non-Cubs fan theory that they will find a way to mess it up is borne of the same mindset that allows Cubs fans to believe that a goat is the root of all their problems.

You have to prepare yourself, sweet potato. At some point, the Cubs are going to have to win the World Series. And at some point, I'm going to have to stick my head in an oven.

bucksfan2
06-05-2008, 10:04 AM
I saw something last night that gave me hope for this season. I saw Edinson in the dugout with his arms draped over the fense cheering his team on. I saw Harang joking put on the catchers stuff. I saw enerty in that dugout for the first time in forever. Never underestimate the power of a little youthful enthusiasm on a baseball team.

The Cubs are red hot right now. I don't think they can maintain this pace. I also think that it is way to early to start looking at games behind. The Reds could rip of a streak of 8-2 or 10-0 and play theirselves right back into the race. The cubs could also suffer an awful road trip and go 1-9 or 2-8 and let the other teams back in the race. I think when the all star break hits you look and see what your chances are.

If the reds start clicking there aren't too many teams that have a lineup as good as they do. The number one thing that NEEDS to happen is to get Patterson out of the every day lineup. The reds have the ability to make this summer an interesting summer. With the exception of the Phillies I don't see another team out there that will pull away from the pack in the wild card.

TeamBoone
06-05-2008, 10:29 AM
The Reds haven't even faced the Cards yet this year. Hopfully they can take the series from them next week.

Then, they don't meet again until August... 9 games against the Cards in Aug/Sep plus 9 games each against the Cubs/Pittsburgh, and 12 each against the Astros/Brewers over the next three months.

That's a lot of games left against the NL Central. If they can make a big dent by putting up series wins, they could make up a lot of ground.

Always Red
06-05-2008, 10:34 AM
The non-Cubs fan theory that they will find a way to mess it up is borne of the same mindset that allows Cubs fans to believe that a goat is the root of all their problems.

You have to prepare yourself, sweet potato. At some point, the Cubs are going to have to win the World Series. And at some point, I'm going to have to stick my head in an oven.

Well, vp, I only have my own 47 years of experience with watching said Cubs crump to go by. ;)

I know the Cubs have a very good club, and I like Lou a lot.

But I have faith that they will blow it, somehow, someway- even if it is in the WS. :thumbup:

BTW, our ex-Cubs titer is running pretty high around here lately; could be that the stinkin goat followed some of those guys over here?? :dunno:

I kind of like being called sweet potato... :roll:

Chip R
06-05-2008, 10:53 AM
The Reds haven't even faced the Cards yet this year.

Actually, the Cards beat the Reds 2 of 3 in StL earlier this year.

TeamBoone
06-05-2008, 11:03 AM
Oh yeah. Sorry 'bout that.

RichRed
06-05-2008, 11:21 AM
The Cubs appear to be the class of the NL Central but it seems as if they've played every game at Wrigley (actually 34 home games vs. 26 away). Let's hope the Dodgers take it to 'em and we'll see how the Cubs are doing after a few more road games.

I don't see the Reds catching the Cubs but I think the wild card is still a possibility, albeit a slim one.

And vp, I'm with you, I may have to do myself some bodily harm if the Cubs actually <gulp> win the whole thing.

Spring~Fields
06-05-2008, 11:37 AM
BTW, our ex-Cubs titer is running pretty high around here lately; could be that the stinkin goat followed some of those guys over here?? :dunno:


How far back is too far back?

The only chance for the Reds now is to get rid of the ex-cubs and that "stinkin goat residue" :deadhorse insert dead goat icon here.

Always Red
06-05-2008, 11:40 AM
How far back is too far back?

The only chance for the Reds now is to get rid of the ex-cubs and that "stinkin goat residue" :deadhorse insert dead goat icon here.

http://homerderby.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/10/the-billy-goat-hung-from-the-harry-caray-statue.jpg

HokieRed
06-05-2008, 11:42 AM
I think it would be more productive for Walt to be thinking about how to contend next year. Frankly "how far back" depends on how good you are, and we're nowhere good enough yet to be thinking about contending for anything. We're still barely in the wild card hunt but too many teams are getting out ahead of us--most notably, at the moment, Milwaukee, which I think will have no trouble handling the Cardinals.

Wheelhouse
06-05-2008, 11:45 AM
I don't know "how far back is back?" but one thing I never underestimate is the ability of the Cubs to mess things up.