PDA

View Full Version : Jonathan Mayo says it's fairly certain Reds will draft Gordon Beckham



OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 01:02 AM
It appears fairly certain the Reds will be taking University of Georgia shortstop with the No. 7 overall pick. They've long been associated with a variety of college players, mostly bats (Yonder Alonso) and also RHP Aaron Crow, but it's looking like the middle-infielder who's had a monster season for the super-regional bound Bulldogs (.397, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 1.286 OPS, 17 SB) will be joining the Reds organization tomorrow.

http://draft.mlblogs.com/

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 01:06 AM
If so, this is great news. Reds fans are used to having great shortstops who can both field and hit and Beckham is a guy I think can keep that tradition going. He's already proven he can hit with a wooden bat and he destroyed the ball in a tough conference this season. This is a guy I think projects to be a .300+ hitter with good plate discipline and 20-25 homerun power and the perfect number two hitter ahead of Jay Bruce. Getting him will really solidify the Reds infield for the next 5-10 years with Votto at first, Phillips at 2nd, Beckham at SS, and either EdE or Todd Frazier at third base.

Screwball
06-05-2008, 01:06 AM
Sweet.

Gordon Beckham will be a beast in Cincy, and he's got defense at a position we need too. He'd be a great, great pick.

Blue
06-05-2008, 01:13 AM
Cincinnati's next 30-30 player. :beerme:

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 01:14 AM
While it sounds nice and all the guy still has to make it to us

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 01:16 AM
Cincinnati's next 30-30 player. :beerme:

Beckham is 17-for-18 in stolen base attempts this season. He's just an all-around good player.

Screwball
06-05-2008, 01:18 AM
While it sounds nice and all the guy still has to make it to us

Good point. I don't think I'm gonna have much for fingernails come tomorrow afternoon...

cincyinco
06-05-2008, 01:23 AM
Yeah, lets not get ahead of ourselves. Beckham could go to the O's or FLA. Shrug..

I have stuck with the Gordon Beckham to Cincy with pick #7 in my pickem 7 thread.. if Matusz falls though, might make them change their minds. who knows. But I like the pick if he's there.

I would normally worry about the transition to wood, but he dominated the cape cod league already with wood, 9 jacks in that time. the power i think is defenitely legit.

NorrisHopper30
06-05-2008, 01:35 AM
Beckham or Matusz please.

mbgrayson
06-05-2008, 01:44 AM
From BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615):


7. Cincinnati Reds

The Reds are lining up to throw the first real curveball of the first round. They have been heavily scouting the top group of college sluggers, as well as Gordon Beckham, while also dreaming of a scenario that would drop either Matusz or Crow to them. However, a surprising new name has entered the mix—the Reds were in hard on Canadian prepster Brett Lawrie after he went off with eight home runs in eight games against professionals in the Dominican, and they came back with reports encouraging enough to prompt a quickly-scheduled private workout on Tuesday afternoon. As one scouting director put it, “If there’s anyone who can improve his stock with a private workout, it’s Lawrie.” Assuming all went as expected, the surprises start at lucky number seven. If they decide to play it safe, Alonso is currently at the top of their board.
Selection: Brett Lawrie, INF, Brookswood SS (BC)

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 01:51 AM
From BP (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7615):

That's from earlier today. This new info from Mayo is from late tonight.

Chris Buckley says the Reds are down to Brian Matusz, Buster Posey, Gordon Beckham, or Yonder Alonso.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 01:59 AM
Who the Reds take is up to the guys before them, but there preferences are certainly out there and one of the real options is not listed by OBM from what I am hearing from a very reliable source.

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2008, 02:04 AM
Who the Reds take is up to the guys before them, but there preferences are certainly out there and one of the real options is not listed by OBM from what I am hearing from a very reliable source.

Really, how interesting. It's gotta be Lawrie and I am ok with it assuming the alternatives are not the Beckhams, Matusz & Posey (unless of course Posey is indeed asking for 12 mill).

Screwball
06-05-2008, 02:05 AM
Who the Reds take is up to the guys before them, but there preferences are certainly out there and one of the real options is not listed by OBM from what I am hearing from a very reliable source.

I take it you don't want to tell us who it is. Would you be happy if the Reds took this mystery player?

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 02:07 AM
I take it you don't want to tell us who it is. Would you be happy if the Reds took this mystery player?

Not that I don't want to, just not sure if I can without getting someone in trouble. I don't think the Reds will end up taking him because of the other options that do look like they should be there, but it seems he is higher for us than some guys we have been linked to recently.

Homer Bailey
06-05-2008, 02:46 AM
If Beckham is only one of those four still there (that OBM listed), he must be taken. SS is a huge position of need AND he is a great value pick. He'd be perfect to take over for Gonzo in 2010 or 2011.

fearofpopvol1
06-05-2008, 05:19 AM
I would be 100% fine with Gordon Beckham as the pick. Matsuz would be my 1st choice, but drafting Gordon would be fantastic.

medford
06-05-2008, 06:44 AM
Based upon a lot of the reports, and it may be pure coincidence, but it appears the Reds are strictly interested in college players. Perhaps they realize w/ Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, Phillips, Bailey, Thompson, etc... they've got a solid core of talent to build around in or close to the majors and they're window is looking prime for 2-5 seasons from now. If so, I'd think it best to add a player than can start enterring his prime w/n that time frame, vs a player that just might be getting up to the bigs at the end of that time frame.

Caveat Emperor
06-05-2008, 09:00 AM
Just thinking out loud, but...

If it's a close call between a prep shortstop and a college shortstop, doesn't the nod have to go to the college kid since he's closer to being fully grown? A lot of high school shortstops "fill out" and find themselves too slow to continue playing the position -- I'd think that would be less of a risk with a college shortstop, who is closer to being at his playing size.

I haven't heard much about Lawrie (certainly not as much as I have about some of the others) -- and it worries me a bit if they're falling in love with the kid.

Cyclone792
06-05-2008, 09:18 AM
Based on who I think will be available, I'd have to say my preferred pick right now is Gordon Beckham. There's always a chance one of the bigger studs may fall, but if the Reds take Beckham then I'll be pretty happy.

I also admit that it would be nice to draft another elite, advanced college player who could be on the fast track to the big leagues and mix in with the current youth movement. The one-two punch of Frazier and Beckham in the Reds farm system would be an awfully nice sight.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 09:24 AM
Based upon a lot of the reports, and it may be pure coincidence, but it appears the Reds are strictly interested in college players. Perhaps they realize w/ Bruce, Votto, Volquez, Cueto, Phillips, Bailey, Thompson, etc... they've got a solid core of talent to build around in or close to the majors and they're window is looking prime for 2-5 seasons from now. If so, I'd think it best to add a player than can start enterring his prime w/n that time frame, vs a player that just might be getting up to the bigs at the end of that time frame.

I have been wondering this same thing for the past 2 years. Not only through the draft, but also in pure roster management.

I have the same feelings. They have an insane core of youth...let's try and get some additional talent for when these guys are hitting their strides (which seems to be now) and not some high risk, high reward guy who might pan out 5 years from now.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 09:26 AM
Based on who I think will be available, I'd have to say my preferred pick right now is Gordon Beckham. There's always a chance one of the bigger studs may fall, but if the Reds take Beckham then I'll be pretty happy.

I also admit that it would be nice to draft another elite, advanced college player who could be on the fast track to the big leagues and mix in with the current youth movement. The one-two punch of Frazier and Beckham in the Reds farm system would be an awfully nice sight.

I have to agree...Beckham, IMO, is the kind of guy this team needs. He doesn't seem to have anyone blocking his path to the big team and his ETA is sooner rather than later.

I am all about pitching in the draft but when you can get a top tier talent who fits a need and is close to the majors, I think there is nothing wrong with that.

The same would go for Smoak, Crow, Matusz and Posey. However, Smoak could cause some controversy since I don't know if the FO feels as if Votto is the long term 1B and Posey would make 2 catchers in the first round 2 years in a row.

Blitz Dorsey
06-05-2008, 10:27 AM
No one seems concerned that Gordon Beckham was not considered a top prospect until his breakout junior season at Georgia? Not saying he is a one-year wonder, but I guess I'm not as sold on him as others. Wouldn't be a bad pick at all though. I wouldn't complain about it.

Blitz Dorsey
06-05-2008, 10:29 AM
EDabbs: I'm pretty sure the front office feels as if Votto is the long-term 1B. I think if Votto wasn't here, they would be going out of their way to take a power-hitting 1B with the No. 7 pick.

lollipopcurve
06-05-2008, 10:38 AM
No one seems concerned that Gordon Beckham was not considered a top prospect until his breakout junior season at Georgia? Not saying he is a one-year wonder, but I guess I'm not as sold on him as others. Wouldn't be a bad pick at all though. I wouldn't complain about it.

I have said I'm not 100% comfortable with his big breakout this year -- but the same could be said for Posey. What dings Beckham a little for me at this point are the reports that he may need to move to 2nd. But, like you, I'd be OK with the pick overall and would hope he'd prove himself to be a competent defensive SS.

Blitz Dorsey
06-05-2008, 10:41 AM
If he may need to move to 2nd, that sends up huge red flags to me. If we take a SS that high, he needs to be a SS all the way. We already have plenty of guys like Valaika and Frazier who play SS in the minors, but project somewhere else in the infield (2B for Valaika, 3B for Frazier). I hope if the Reds take Gordon Beckham, they are completely sold on him as a SS (and as more than a one-year wonder as a great hitter).

bucksfan2
06-05-2008, 11:09 AM
If he may need to move to 2nd, that sends up huge red flags to me. If we take a SS that high, he needs to be a SS all the way. We already have plenty of guys like Valaika and Frazier who play SS in the minors, but project somewhere else in the infield (2B for Valaika, 3B for Frazier). I hope if the Reds take Gordon Beckham, they are completely sold on him as a SS (and as more than a one-year wonder as a great hitter).

Wasn't a knock on Larkin that he would have to move from SS? I don't mind a SS pick as much if he may have to move because in general if you are a SS you can play several other positions. IMO a guy who can play SS can play 2b and 3b without missing a beat. This leads the organization to a great deal of flexibility. Remember when the Reds had Pokey as the heir apparent SS to Larkin but he made his career at 2b. Where a problem would arise would be if the Reds drafted a soon to be ready 1b but could only play 1b and the reds had to make a decision between him and Votto.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 11:11 AM
Beckham has a bat that can EASILY handle 2B or 3B in the chance he needs to move off the position.

HBP
06-05-2008, 11:12 AM
No one seems concerned that Gordon Beckham was not considered a top prospect until his breakout junior season at Georgia? Not saying he is a one-year wonder, but I guess I'm not as sold on him as others. Wouldn't be a bad pick at all though. I wouldn't complain about it.

He led the Cape Cod league in HR's (wood bat), so he has some history.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2008, 11:15 AM
He is listed at 6-0 185. Does anyone know if that is a stretch?

If so, he may not have much room to add much power. Hopefully he is a solid SS and sticks there. We could use him pretty soon (2010).

RedsManRick
06-05-2008, 11:28 AM
Just thinking out loud, but...

If it's a close call between a prep shortstop and a college shortstop, doesn't the nod have to go to the college kid since he's closer to being fully grown? A lot of high school shortstops "fill out" and find themselves too slow to continue playing the position -- I'd think that would be less of a risk with a college shortstop, who is closer to being at his playing size.

I haven't heard much about Lawrie (certainly not as much as I have about some of the others) -- and it worries me a bit if they're falling in love with the kid.

The Braves historically have argued in the other direction. They posit that they should draft the guy who they have the opportunity of coaching through his formative years - they're professionals and college's aren't.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 11:29 AM
The Braves historically have argued in the other direction. They posit that they should draft the guy who they have the opportunity of coaching through his formative years - they're professionals and college's aren't.

I agree with that premise as long as you have the coaches in the system worth a crap. In the past, I wouldn't have gone that way with the Reds. Now, I don't have a problem with it at all.

WVRed
06-05-2008, 11:31 AM
Beckham has a bat that can EASILY handle 2B or 3B in the chance he needs to move off the position.

Keep him at SS, period.

If for some reason Beckham isn't there, I would be hard pressed to take one of the 1B and move Votto to LF. We have a lineup that is predominantly lefthanded(Bruce, Votto), and we need a righty or a switch-hitter to balance it at a premium power position. Smoak is my first choice after Beckham then Alonso.(Hosmer will be gone)

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2008, 11:38 AM
If there is any chance that Beckham is not a SS, you have to go with the safer college bat, Smoak or Alonso.

If he is a SS and you've done your homework and know he can handle it, well, then he's your man at #7.

HokieRed
06-05-2008, 11:39 AM
If Posey drops, can G. Beckham be gone by number 7? What then?

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 11:41 AM
If there is any chance that Beckham is not a SS, you have to go with the safer college bat, Smoak or Alonso.

If he is a SS and you've done your homework and know he can handle it, well, then he's your man at #7.

I am going to make the argument that Beckham is absolutely one of, if not the safest college bats available, position having nothing to do with it.

redhawk61
06-05-2008, 11:42 AM
Keep him at SS, period.

If for some reason Beckham isn't there, I would be hard pressed to take one of the 1B and move Votto to LF. We have a lineup that is predominantly lefthanded(Bruce, Votto), and we need a righty or a switch-hitter to balance it at a premium power position. Smoak is my first choice after Beckham then Alonso.(Hosmer will be gone)

agreed. a lineup with Kepp, Bruce, Smoak, BP, Votto, Frazier/EE in it would be really really tough to pitch to.

my top 5 go as
Smoak
Matusz
G. Beckham
Posey
Crow

As far as G. Beckham staying at SS, I say why not. If he can play it in college ball than he can certainly play it in pro ball. I guess the main concern is that his body will eventually outgrow the position which I do not believe. He is onlu 175lbs and the most I see him ever gaining, which might not happen at all, is 10 lbs to 185 lbs which, with his 6' hight, 6' 185 would be the same playing size and weight as Larkin

WVRed
06-05-2008, 11:42 AM
If there is any chance that Beckham is not a SS, you have to go with the safer college bat, Smoak or Alonso.

If he is a SS and you've done your homework and know he can handle it, well, then he's your man at #7.

Beckham is listed as above average at SS, meaning there is a possibility he could be moved to another position.

The Reds drafted a SS from Michigan several years ago who was also listed as "above average" at SS. I think that worked out pretty well.;)

HBP
06-05-2008, 11:42 AM
If Posey drops, can G. Beckham be gone by number 7? What then?

Possible, but he should be there. Crow or Lawrie would be next. I still think Crow is a possibility.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 11:47 AM
Beckham has good range and a solid arm. Like M2 said a few days ago, if a shortstop can hit well then scouts automatically assume he needs to move off SS. Beckham has all the tools to be a good fielding shortstop.

bowles8
06-05-2008, 11:48 AM
From BA:

Signability concerns made for a wild night before the draft. Florida State catcher Buster Posey's asking price suddenly jumped to $12 million and Missouri righthander Aaron Crow's target became $10 million, and while few teams took those numbers seriously, it did affect their draft preparations. With three Scott Boras Corporation advisees—Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, Florida high school first baseman Eric Hosmer and California prep righthander Gerrit Cole—already known to be seeking $6 million or more, it once again means that money will be as much a factor as talent in the first round.

7. CINCINNATI. Unless Matusz falls, slugging Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham is the Reds' target. They won't rule out Posey, even after taking catcher Devin Mesoraco with their 2007 first-rounder. Sweet-swinging Canadian Brett Lawrie, who's surging up draft boards after a fantastic finish to his spring tour with Team Canada, first emerges as a possibility here but Cincinnati prefers Beckham.

edabbs44
06-05-2008, 11:50 AM
EDabbs: I'm pretty sure the front office feels as if Votto is the long-term 1B. I think if Votto wasn't here, they would be going out of their way to take a power-hitting 1B with the No. 7 pick.

Agreed 100%. But they did drop Alonso's name, no?

M2
06-05-2008, 11:51 AM
Beckham has good range and a solid arm. Like M2 said a few days ago, if a shortstop can hit well then scouts automatically assume he needs to move off SS. Beckham has all the tools to be a good fielding shortstop.

Not even so much that he needs, but more that he can.

Jim Callis just released his mock draft over at BA and has the Reds taking G. Beckham. Interestingly he's got Posey going to the Fish at #6. I find it hard to believe Florida will go above slot, so there's a possibility the Reds could be looking at Posey and Beckham on their pick.

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 11:53 AM
Here's the final projection from Mayo at MLB.com:

7. Cincinnati Reds: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia
They've been looking at college players, from Yonder Alonso at the plate to Aaron Crow on the mound. They may have settled on Beckham because of his middle infieldedness (yes, that's a word) and perhaps a little because of possible price tags for the other two.
Last projection: Yonder Alonso

http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080604&content_id=2837388&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp

lollipopcurve
06-05-2008, 11:53 AM
SF seems to be the wildcard.

Caveat Emperor
06-05-2008, 12:27 PM
With this many indicators saying "Beckham" for the Reds right now, it has to be their inteded pick.

Since there's no trading picks in baseball, there's no strategic advantage to holding your cards close to the vest -- no worries that someone will jump ahead of you and take the palyer -- especially in the very early first round (where none of these guys have a chance of falling back to you in the next round).

HBP
06-05-2008, 01:19 PM
With this many indicators saying "Beckham" for the Reds right now, it has to be their inteded pick.

Since there's no trading picks in baseball, there's no strategic advantage to holding your cards close to the vest -- no worries that someone will jump ahead of you and take the palyer -- especially in the very early first round (where none of these guys have a chance of falling back to you in the next round).

True, but bluffing can be useful to oppose unreasonable signing bonus demands.

RedlegJake
06-05-2008, 01:44 PM
With this many indicators saying "Beckham" for the Reds right now, it has to be their inteded pick.

Since there's no trading picks in baseball, there's no strategic advantage to holding your cards close to the vest -- no worries that someone will jump ahead of you and take the palyer -- especially in the very early first round (where none of these guys have a chance of falling back to you in the next round).

Once trading for draft position is allowed (and I think it will be before long) the draft will get even more interesting.

Kingspoint
06-06-2008, 02:59 AM
He is listed at 6-0 185. Does anyone know if that is a stretch?

If so, he may not have much room to add much power. Hopefully he is a solid SS and sticks there. We could use him pretty soon (2010).

I saw him up close (4th Row behind the plate) for a series and he actually looked smaller than 185...more like 165, but I left extremely impressed by him. He blasted one pitch completely out of the park and another over the 410' sign in Center Field while making a dynamic double-play with the bases loaded defensively. He was one of the smallest players on his team (Georgia had some big boys. They all looked country-fed, as all of them were local Georgians.)

The pitcher he hit the homeruns off of still won the game for Oregon State 5-4, was a Freshman this year, but one with excellent command and a hard fastball.

Blitz Dorsey
06-06-2008, 03:01 AM
Jonathan Mayo got fired for his prediction.

(Kidding.)