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View Full Version : Buster Posey to drop?



IslandRed
06-05-2008, 12:57 AM
BP's Kevin Goldstein is saying Posey's camp is floating a $12 million figure, possibly to maneuver himself to a richer team than Tampa. In any event, if that's anywhere close to the truth, Tampa will take Tim Beckham and who knows if anyone else choosing before the Reds will call Posey's bluff.

So let's say Posey's still sitting there at #7 and he's not budging off his figure. What's your call as the Reds' virtual draft boss? Actually, let's try a few scenarios:

1) Cast will pony up whatever Posey wants, over and beyond the current budget. (Is Posey worth it?)

2) Cast will pony up if you want, but he's not kicking in more money; it will have to come out of other player acquisition money buckets. (Is Posey the best use of those funds?)

3) You don't have the ability to stroke the check Posey wants. (Do you gamble you can sign him for less? Are you willing to possibly risk your job by blowing the #7 on a guy you can't sign?)

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2008, 01:00 AM
BP's Kevin Goldstein is saying Posey's camp is floating a $12 million figure, possibly to maneuver himself to a richer team than Tampa. In any event, if that's anywhere close to the truth, Tampa will take Tim Beckham and who knows if anyone else choosing before the Reds will call Posey's bluff.

So let's say Posey's still sitting there at #7 and he's not budging off his figure. What's your call as the Reds' virtual draft boss? Actually, let's try a few scenarios:

1) Cast will pony up whatever Posey wants, over and beyond the current budget. (Is Posey worth it?)

2) Cast will pony up if you want, but he's not kicking in more money; it will have to come out of other player acquisition money buckets. (Is Posey the best use of those funds?)

3) You don't have the ability to stroke the check Posey wants. (Do you gamble you can sign him for less? Are you willing to possibly risk your job by blowing the #7 on a guy you can't sign?)

It depends on who else is available at that point. I can't imagine a scenario where there wouldn't be a good alternative pick.

redhawk61
06-05-2008, 02:36 AM
Well I have read that Buckley said that Bob and Walt have told him that all players are game. So that might mean they would pony up

Patrick Bateman
06-05-2008, 02:48 AM
I'm not that in love with Posey... it's hard not to be intrigued by a definite catcher, but his bat just doesn't excite me much. The overall package is okay, but he screams average to me in most areas, when I see more star talent available.

I personally would rather have Crow, Gordon Beckham, Matusz even before considering money.

redhawk61
06-05-2008, 02:53 AM
I want to know why there is no talk about Smoak. I feel he is the best bat out of all of the top college bats with the highest ceiling

LoganBuck
06-05-2008, 07:43 AM
I want to know why there is no talk about Smoak. I feel he is the best bat out of all of the top college bats with the highest ceiling

I think people like him, he is stapled to firstbase though. The Reds have several corner infielders in the system looking for a position. It also depends on what the long term plan is with Votto and Dunn. We aren't privy to that thought process right now. We may be soon.

redsmetz
06-05-2008, 08:07 AM
I saw in the paper this morning that we have one spot on the 40 man roster open. I just counted them and we only have 39 on the roster. I missed where we freed up a spot. I was surprised when I saw that because I hadn't noticed when we opened up the slot. I thought every new player coming to the 40 man (Andy Phillips, Bruce, Herrara) had a corresponding move (Gonzo to 60 day, for example). Were Shearn or Lehr or Brower on the 40 man?

Anyone, the story mentioned that this allows the club to offer a ML contract if necessary to sign a drafted player. Of course, I'm skittish of that type of move. I can't help but recall Bowden giving ML contracts to David Espinoza and Dane Sardinha - ouch!

PuffyPig
06-05-2008, 08:13 AM
Anyone, the story mentioned that this allows the club to offer a ML contract if necessary to sign a drafted player. Of course, I'm skittish of that type of move. I can't help but recall Bowden giving ML contracts to David Espinoza and Dane Sardinha - ouch!


I doubt they opened up a spot just before the draft becuase they might give a draft pick a major league contract.

They would only have to open up the spot once that player was signed. Plenty of time to do it at the time of the signing.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2008, 08:18 AM
Posey is intriguing.

He had a pretty impressive year. I'm not sure if anyone has ever dominated offensively like this kid and he did it at a school like Florida State, which obviously plays tough competition. He led all of college baseball in BA, SLG, OBP, OPS, TB, RBI, H, and 4th in HR.

And he's a pretty decent catcher too.

http://www.boydsworld.com/data/leaderboard.html

redsmetz
06-05-2008, 08:29 AM
I doubt they opened up a spot just before the draft becuase they might give a draft pick a major league contract.

They would only have to open up the spot once that player was signed. Plenty of time to do it at the time of the signing.

Here's what Fay wrote, although I don't see a move listed on the Transactions page.


The Reds cleared a spot on their 40-man roster Wednesday, so if they offer the top pick a big-league contract, they have a place to put him.

The ability to sign players greatly affects the draft.

"We've been talking to agents, seeing where guys stand," Buckley said

HokieRed
06-05-2008, 08:37 AM
What's anybody's guess about how soon Posey might be able to catch in Cinti? Is he an upgrade over Mesoraco? What happens to Mesoraco if we take Posey?

puca
06-05-2008, 08:39 AM
What Fay wrote doesn't really make sense unless they already have a pre-draft agreement with a player that includes a major league contract and KNOW he is falling to them. And even under that scenerio, why the rush?

lollipopcurve
06-05-2008, 08:41 AM
if Posey drops, take him

redsmetz
06-05-2008, 08:43 AM
What Fay wrote doesn't really make sense unless they already have a pre-draft agreement with a player that includes a major league contract and KNOW he is falling to them. And even under that scenerio, why the rush?

You may well be right, and I hesitated to use Fay as a credible source. I basically figured it was pertinant info to the conversation. That said, it's more like a move you'd make before the Rule 5 draft. I don't think giving ML contracts to players from the amateur draft is very common. And, I'm tentative about it myself.

Degenerate39
06-05-2008, 08:44 AM
What's anybody's guess about how soon Posey might be able to catch in Cinti? Is he an upgrade over Mesoraco? What happens to Mesoraco if we take Posey?

Keep him down there and keep improving him. Posey and Mesoraco would be a big upgrade over Ross/Bako/Valetine behind the plate.

OesterPoster
06-05-2008, 08:53 AM
Having an abundance of good catchers is never a bad thing. You can always trade one for a missing piece somewhere else. Look at the Rangers. They've got at least 2 catchers in their system I'd rather have over Bako/Ross/Valentine. The Mariners have at least 2 I'd take over Bako/Ross too.

Posey has demonstrated he can play any position, so he's not totally locked into catching, IMHO. If he's there at 7, I hope the Reds take him.

HBP
06-05-2008, 08:54 AM
Posey could go #1.


Either Beckham or Posey could be selected No. 1 today.
The Rays select first in today's 2008 First-Year Player Draft and their list has been pared down to two: Tim Beckham and Buster Posey.
MLB.com (http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080605&content_id=2844099&vkey=draft2008&fext=.jsp)

WVRed
06-05-2008, 10:34 AM
Posey makes the most sense for Tampa. They are winning now and he could move through the system fairly quickly. IMO, he is a better fit than Beckham because he could produce quicker.

M2
06-05-2008, 10:36 AM
if Posey drops, take him

Exactly my thought.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2008, 10:39 AM
I don't care what position Posey plays.

With a bat like his, move him up. Quickly.

HBP
06-05-2008, 10:46 AM
Posey makes the most sense for Tampa. They are winning now and he could move through the system fairly quickly. IMO, he is a better fit than Beckham because he could produce quicker.

Agreed, he'd make a good combo with David Price the #1 last year.

RedsManRick
06-05-2008, 10:50 AM
Posey does have the benefit of hitting in the (old school) Coors field of college baseball. Combine that with a metal bat and I don't trust his power numbers... certainly not for $12M.

I don't think the Reds even consider him if he's still demanding 8 figures.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 11:04 AM
I agree with RMR. If his contract demands are serious then there is no way ANYONE should take him. That price tag is so far over his talent level that one scout actually joked about it to another scout before he was informed that it was actually a serious number floated out there.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-05-2008, 11:08 AM
Pay him 12 million, but only if you can lock him up for 6-7 years.

M2
06-05-2008, 11:11 AM
I'm not sure how seriously to take Posey's demands. I hear this guy is his agent.

http://bradley.chattablogs.com/dr.evil.jpg
Mr. Posey will require $12 million or we'll shoot your entire draft board into space.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 11:12 AM
I'm not sure how seriously to take Posey's demands.
Mr. Posey will require $12 million or we'll shoot your entire draft board into space.

I wouldn't take them seriously just based around the fact that Weiters, a far superior prospect at the same position didn't get even half of that just last year.

MikeS21
06-05-2008, 11:23 AM
I'm underwhelmed with Posey. I'd stick with a stud SS or a stud college arm who can slide into the rotation behind Harang, Volquez, and Cueto.

Hoosier Red
06-05-2008, 11:25 AM
The Reds are one spot short on the 40 because Merker was moved to the 60 day DL.
I don't think it's anything more than a coincidence though.

IslandRed
06-05-2008, 11:43 AM
Posey does have the benefit of hitting in the (old school) Coors field of college baseball. Combine that with a metal bat and I don't trust his power numbers... certainly not for $12M.

I don't think the Reds even consider him if he's still demanding 8 figures.

FSU's field is gravy for a left-handed hitter but Posey is right-handed and he raked everywhere. I don't think he has plus-plus power but he's not a mirage, either.

Still doesn't make him worth $12 million, though.

HBP
06-05-2008, 12:01 PM
This is just another example of how MLB needs a pay scale for draft position.

NorrisHopper30
06-05-2008, 12:02 PM
12 MM are you kidding me? I wonder who will bite on that.

Scrap Irony
06-05-2008, 12:03 PM
Posey's the best at a position that is the most scarce in all of baseball. He has a great chance to put up a .310/30/110 line for about a decade. That's Mike Piazza numbers. He's a better prospect, IMO, than Wieters last year or any catcher since the Minnesota Twins drafted Joe Mauer before Mark Prior. He's a Gold Glove caliber receiver as well. Plus, his name is Buster. C'mon!

Still, he's not worth half of $12 million.

jmcclain19
06-05-2008, 12:10 PM
I'd still take Beckham over Posey if he's there.

Posey's demands are much like Pedro Alvarez's - he's a good player, but neither are heads and shoulders above their peers enough to warrant that kind of spending.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 12:11 PM
Posey's the best at a position that is the most scarce in all of baseball. He has a great chance to put up a .310/30/110 line for about a decade. That's Mike Piazza numbers. He's a better prospect, IMO, than Wieters last year or any catcher since the Minnesota Twins drafted Joe Mauer before Mark Prior. He's a Gold Glove caliber receiver as well. Plus, his name is Buster. C'mon!

Still, he's not worth half of $12 million.

30 HR for Buster Posey? I have seen him described as a poor mans Russ Martin. Power is one of the concerns about his bat.

Scrap Irony
06-05-2008, 12:13 PM
His power's legitimate enough to deliver that line (in the GABP) for a decade. Put him in LA, SD, or Shea and his HR numbers suffer.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 12:14 PM
I just don't see Posey ever topping 25 HR in his peak year.

IslandRed
06-05-2008, 02:42 PM
Just to cap off the thread I started, Posey went #5 to San Francisco.