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OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 06:27 PM
Is it the new, improved Homer?

By Hal McCoy | Thursday, June 5, 2008, 04:58 PM
What do you think?

Absolutely loved what I saw from Homer Bailey — on the mound and in the clubhouse.

OK, so he still had his cowboy buckle and his cowboy boots (but I didn’t see the Bowie knife), but if he can pitch the way he did Thursday and handle the post-game media the way he did Monday, he can wear the Emperor’s clothes.

Heck, only Marty Brennaman gets on Jeff “Cowboy” Brantley for the color combinations he wears in suits, shirts and ties.

Bailey pitched good, man, very good. Had he not run up against a solid Cole Hamels (no runs, three hits in a 5-0 shutout), he might have won. Had he not had three unearned runs posted to his name on errors by shortstop Paul Janish, Ken Griffey Jr. and one himself, he might have won.

He gave up only four hits and two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against a solid offensive team in a ballpark built for two - two homers a day, whether they need them or not.

Afterward, he faced the media and provided great insight and great quotes. After the way I’ve been hard and harsh on him since spring training, I approached with trepidation but he twice looked me in the eye and answered the questions.

And with a smile. Good for him. Let’s hope he stays this way, stays strong on the mound, stays strong in the clubhouse and becomes another important piece to the starting rotation.

Think about it: Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo (The Good Bronson, not the Charles Bronson) and Bailey.

Things could look up considereably.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

RedlegJake
06-05-2008, 06:53 PM
I was impressed with Homer. Could be that the 5th starter is in the house now. The offense and defense continue to befuddle me, though, but Homer's start was a great omen, hopefully. Nice to see that McCoy managed to write something positive about Bailey, too.

jojo
06-05-2008, 06:55 PM
Afterward, he faced the media and provided great insight and great quotes.

Fresh from Hal McCoy's scouting bible........ Homer is now the answer because, well, he answered some questions.

RedsManRick
06-05-2008, 07:08 PM
Put me in the camp that is not impressed by any start in which the pitcher walks four times as many guys as he strikes out. The errors hurt, but Homer was extremely reliant on his defense and that tends to catch up to you eventually. Luckily, his MO in the minors has been a low hit rate and a low HR rate, so hopefully he can maintain those. It's just that it's a recipe for the occasional disaster start.

I'm extremely cautiously optimistic... but not going to be swayed by the fact that he answered questions in his post-game presser.

(BTW, did Homer kill RZ for a bit there?)

Matt700wlw
06-05-2008, 07:13 PM
We are aware that Homer Bailey was going against the best lineup in the NL and held them in check, aren't we?

I have no problem with how he pitched...a good foundation to build on

OnBaseMachine
06-05-2008, 07:17 PM
Manager Dusty Baker was excited by what he saw from Bailey.

"It was a pretty good outing in that he threw strikes and his pitch-count was down (89 pitches, 52 strikes in 6 1/3 innings)," said Baker. "He located his fastball, but didn't have his breaking ball. He should only have given up two runs and he kept us in the game. We hurt ourselves."

Bailey was removed in the seventh after back-to-back walks.

"Tough breaks and the opposing pitcher did an outstanding job and it is tough losing games like that," said Bailey. "I made one bad pitch that probably hasn't landed yet (sixth-inning home run to Geoff Jenkins). Guess I ran out of gas in the seventh when I ended up walking those two guys."

http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/06/05/ddn060508spredsweb2.html

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2008, 07:29 PM
Put me in the camp that is not impressed by any start in which the pitcher walks four times as many guys as he strikes out. The errors hurt, but Homer was extremely reliant on his defense and that tends to catch up to you eventually. Luckily, his MO in the minors has been a low hit rate and a low HR rate, so hopefully he can maintain those. It's just that it's a recipe for the occasional disaster start.

I'm extremely cautiously optimistic... but not going to be swayed by the fact that he answered questions in his post-game presser.

(BTW, did Homer kill RZ for a bit there?)

3 BB's and 2 K's? He did a pretty good job if he eventually can move those K's up and he has the ability to do so. Relying on your defense shouldn't be a negative if you have a defense behind you and you can get K's when you need them. He didn't to day but it's a bit of a polar opposite of what he was before.

RedsManRick
06-05-2008, 07:31 PM
3 BB's and 2 K's? He did a pretty good job if he eventually can move those K's up and he has the ability to do so. Relying on your defense shouldn't be a negative if you have a defense behind you and you can get K's when you need them. He didn't to day but it's a bit of a polar opposite of what he was before.

I have him at 4 BB and 1 K.

His K rate in AAA was less than stellar both last year and this year. I'm not convinced that he can get one when he needs it. And FWIW, he doesn't have much of a defense behind him.

Mario-Rijo
06-05-2008, 07:44 PM
I have him at 4 BB and 1 K.

His K rate in AAA was less than stellar both last year and this year. I'm not convinced that he can get one when he needs it. And FWIW, he doesn't have much of a defense behind him.

I saw that as well in his totals but when you peruse the Phillies lineup 2 struck out Ruiz & Hamels and 3 BB. That said I see where your coming from on the K's, I just don't know why and if that continues. I agree with the defense behind him being below avg. & not on par with the opponent today.

The point I was getting at though was if he wasn't attempting to K these guys and was just trying to make good pitches and letting the game come to him then that is a bit of an improvement over his previous philosophy.

jojo
06-05-2008, 08:05 PM
The point I was getting at though was if he wasn't attempting to K these guys and was just trying to make good pitches and letting the game come to him then that is a bit of an improvement over his previous philosophy.

I haven't watched the game yet but the boxscore & pitch f/x suggests he kinda of like pitched-to-contact while walking a lot of people.... For what it's worth, the pitch f/x data suggests he didn't top 88 mph today.

It's kind of surreal to contemplate that from an arm tagged as on of the best pitching prospect in baseball.

Patrick Bateman
06-05-2008, 08:07 PM
I haven't watched the game yet but the boxscore & pitch f/x suggests he kinda of like pitched-to-contact while walking a lot of people.... For what it's worth, the pitch f/x data suggests he didn't top 88 mph today.

It's kind of surreal to contemplate that from an arm tagged as on of the best pitching prospect in baseball.

That's basically the thoughts I had from watching the game. Lots of pitches over the middle of the plate.

dougdirt
06-05-2008, 08:55 PM
I haven't watched the game yet but the boxscore & pitch f/x suggests he kinda of like pitched-to-contact while walking a lot of people.... For what it's worth, the pitch f/x data suggests he didn't top 88 mph today.

It's kind of surreal to contemplate that from an arm tagged as on of the best pitching prospect in baseball.

You missed the debate. The pitch fx camera was not working correctly today apparently. The TV camera's had Bailey working 91-94 most of the day with his fastball. According to the gameday stuff there were only like 4 pitches over 86 MPH from either starter in the game.

jojo
06-05-2008, 08:58 PM
You missed the debate. The pitch fx camera was not working correctly today apparently. The TV camera's had Bailey working 91-94 most of the day with his fastball. According to the gameday stuff there were only like 4 pitches over 86 MPH from either starter in the game.

That's good news.

red-in-la
06-05-2008, 09:33 PM
I have him at 4 BB and 1 K.

His K rate in AAA was less than stellar both last year and this year. I'm not convinced that he can get one when he needs it. And FWIW, he doesn't have much of a defense behind him.

What was with Bruce in LF? JR is an awful RF.....he can't cover a postage stamp. If you are going to sit Dunn and Bruce isn't going to play CF, then JR should be the one moved to LF. Bruce should always be iether in CF or RF.

Baker is beginning to make me long for the days of Trader Jack.

GAC
06-05-2008, 09:43 PM
so what are the other alternatives for that #5 spot right now? That's the main question.

He was facing one of the more potent offenses in MLB, in a hitter's park, and the NL East division leader to boot.

It was his first start against ML level hitting since when?

Let the kid continue to pitch and see what he does.

Trying to evaluate or project how a kid is going to perform after one start is pretty ludicrous IMO.

I'm more concerned about this erratic offense that can't seem to give our pitchers any run support. One run would have beaten us today.

RedlegJake
06-05-2008, 09:54 PM
I haven't seen an argument yet that makes me doubt Bailey's the best #5 starter option going for the Reds. I am becoming convinced unless the kid fans 12 and 1 hits his opponent he won't get a lot of credit.

VR
06-06-2008, 02:08 AM
I have no problem with how he pitched...a good foundation to build on

amen

BCubb2003
06-06-2008, 02:19 AM
Nearly every team's No. 5 starter has issues. I'm always curious to know who would be the best No. 5 starter in the league.

fearofpopvol1
06-06-2008, 02:43 AM
Nearly every team's No. 5 starter has issues. I'm always curious to know who would be the best No. 5 starter in the league.

I don't think people are necessarily down about his performance relative to being the #5 starter. They're down on the fact that Bailey was (and I guess still is) considered one of the best prospects in baseball and that his K rates have dropped dramatically over the last year.

Topcat
06-06-2008, 04:55 AM
Homer will be fine and like it or not red's fans we have a great team to look forward to watching all summer long:thumbup:

Jpup
06-06-2008, 04:57 AM
Homer will be fine and like it or not red's fans we have a great team to look forward to watching all summer long:thumbup:

Great? Let them get within sniffing distance before we call them great.

membengal
06-06-2008, 10:24 AM
I haven't seen an argument yet that makes me doubt Bailey's the best #5 starter option going for the Reds. I am becoming convinced unless the kid fans 12 and 1 hits his opponent he won't get a lot of credit.

Applause.

membengal
06-06-2008, 10:24 AM
Is it the new, improved Homer?

By Hal McCoy | Thursday, June 5, 2008, 04:58 PM
What do you think?

Absolutely loved what I saw from Homer Bailey — on the mound and in the clubhouse.

OK, so he still had his cowboy buckle and his cowboy boots (but I didn’t see the Bowie knife), but if he can pitch the way he did Thursday and handle the post-game media the way he did Monday, he can wear the Emperor’s clothes.

Heck, only Marty Brennaman gets on Jeff “Cowboy” Brantley for the color combinations he wears in suits, shirts and ties.

Bailey pitched good, man, very good. Had he not run up against a solid Cole Hamels (no runs, three hits in a 5-0 shutout), he might have won. Had he not had three unearned runs posted to his name on errors by shortstop Paul Janish, Ken Griffey Jr. and one himself, he might have won.

He gave up only four hits and two earned runs over 6 1/3 innings against a solid offensive team in a ballpark built for two - two homers a day, whether they need them or not.

Afterward, he faced the media and provided great insight and great quotes. After the way I’ve been hard and harsh on him since spring training, I approached with trepidation but he twice looked me in the eye and answered the questions.

And with a smile. Good for him. Let’s hope he stays this way, stays strong on the mound, stays strong in the clubhouse and becomes another important piece to the starting rotation.

Think about it: Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo (The Good Bronson, not the Charles Bronson) and Bailey.

Things could look up considereably.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Am I to understand that part of Hal's issue with Bailey is (was) how Bailey dresses?

Chip R
06-06-2008, 10:25 AM
Am I to understand that part of Hal's issue with Bailey is (was) how Bailey dresses?


Little bit.

membengal
06-06-2008, 10:26 AM
Little bit.

I, I, I, ah, I don't know what to say to that. Gracious.

Tony Cloninger
06-06-2008, 10:54 AM
Good thing Gary Glitter and George Clinton don't play for the Reds then.

bucksfan2
06-06-2008, 10:55 AM
Am I to understand that part of Hal's issue with Bailey is (was) how Bailey dresses?

I really want to know what Hal's beef with Homer is. Heck if he wears Cowboy boots on the field that have baseball spikes in them I don't care. What he wears or doesn't wear to the stadium shouldn't be reported on. What he does before the game in the locker room shouldn't be reported on. If he carries a hunting knive to the game or not shouldn't be reported on.

Homer really held the best lineup in baseball in check for most of the game. Not only were there 3 errors but Marty lit up Jr for a ball he couldn't get to right after his error. Every pitcher is going to have a game where he doesn't strike out many hitters. But I will take a starter who goes out there and pitches 6+ innings of 2 earned run baseball every day of the week.

Chip R
06-06-2008, 11:37 AM
I really want to know what Hal's beef with Homer is.


Homer hasn't been very nice to the media and he hasn't been the success everyone thought he would be by now. If you're successful and a jerk to the media, you get a pass until you aren't successful or get in trouble i.e Clemens. If you aren't successful and a jerk to the media, you get ripped on.

westofyou
06-06-2008, 11:38 AM
Good thing Gary Glitter and George Clinton don't play for the Reds then.

Think Hal beat up on Lenny Harris for wearing cowboy boots?

Ltlabner
06-06-2008, 11:51 AM
I haven't seen an argument yet that makes me doubt Bailey's the best #5 starter option going for the Reds. I am becoming convinced unless the kid fans 12 and 1 hits his opponent he won't get a lot of credit.

I'm starting to wonder if Bailey *only* becomes a servaceable #4 type innings eater and average to slight above average arm if he'll forever be labled a "bust".

I understand the continued concern over the strike out/walk rates, but to poo-poo an outing against a pretty fine offense because if it strikes me as a bit silly. If Harrang went out and didn't have his "best stuff" and got the job done he'd be hailed as a real trooper.

Hoosier Red
06-06-2008, 12:20 PM
Homer hasn't been very nice to the media and he hasn't been the success everyone thought he would be by now. If you're successful and a jerk to the media, you get a pass until you aren't successful or get in trouble i.e Clemens. If you aren't successful and a jerk to the media, you get ripped on.

Amen,
Also there may be something to his "big league" attitude.
It doesn't mean he can't or won't be a great pitcher, but if enough people(not just Hal) make mention of it to Homer, he'll probably get to be great sooner by listening.

The problem here is it's not black and white. Homer probably could do a better job trying to make adjustments and people could probably stand to do a better job of staying off a 21 year old's back just because he isn't the second coming of Mark Prior(maybe that's a good thing:))

Shades of gray and all that.

BCubb2003
06-06-2008, 12:21 PM
Maybe Homer is the new Piney Woods.

Does anyone remember the getups Pete Rose used to wear?

westofyou
06-06-2008, 12:26 PM
Maybe Homer is the new Piney Woods.

Does anyone remember the getups Pete Rose used to wear?

Just Pete?

It was the 70's man....


http://www.baseballminutia.com/images/hawk.jpg

jojo
06-06-2008, 12:50 PM
Homer will be fine and like it or not red's fans we have a great team to look forward to watching all summer long:thumbup:

I'd like it if Homer's walks were not greater than his Ks..... :cool:

Yesterday was a nice barometer to gauge Homer's progress by... critiquing his performance really doesn't suggest anything about the rest of the roster.

flyer85
06-06-2008, 12:53 PM
good time to see what he might bring in a trade.

SMcGavin
06-06-2008, 01:10 PM
I haven't seen an argument yet that makes me doubt Bailey's the best #5 starter option going for the Reds. I am becoming convinced unless the kid fans 12 and 1 hits his opponent he won't get a lot of credit.

I don't know about fanning twelve, how about we start with striking out more than he walks and go from there.

Those playing the "how can you criticize Homer after that outing" card are missing the point. The overall result (runs allowed) of Homer's outing yesterday was pretty good. The method in which he got that result is one that is extremely unlikely to continue working. If Homer keeps pitching like he did yesterday, he is going to get rocked. Things do not always have to be painted with the broad brush "Homer sucks" or "Homer is awesome". You can be happy with his result yesterday while also being concerned that he is unlikely to repeat that result in the future.

gonelong
06-06-2008, 01:21 PM
Things do not always have to be painted with the broad brush "Homer sucks" or "Homer is awesome". You can be happy with his result yesterday while also being concerned that he is unlikely to repeat that result in the future.

Nicely stated.

It's my perception (right or wrong) that this site is becoming less about what a poster is actually saying and more about what label someone can slap on that post/poster. I see less debate/discussion about topics and more debate/discussion about posters.

GL

RedsManRick
06-06-2008, 01:34 PM
I don't know about fanning twelve, how about we start with striking out more than he walks and go from there.

Those playing the "how can you criticize Homer after that outing" card are missing the point. The overall result (runs allowed) of Homer's outing yesterday was pretty good. The method in which he got that result is one that is extremely unlikely to continue working. If Homer keeps pitching like he did yesterday, he is going to get rocked. Things do not always have to be painted with the broad brush "Homer sucks" or "Homer is awesome". You can be happy with his result yesterday while also being concerned that he is unlikely to repeat that result in the future.

:beerme:

Chip R
06-06-2008, 02:29 PM
Those playing the "how can you criticize Homer after that outing" card are missing the point. The overall result (runs allowed) of Homer's outing yesterday was pretty good. The method in which he got that result is one that is extremely unlikely to continue working. If Homer keeps pitching like he did yesterday, he is going to get rocked. Things do not always have to be painted with the broad brush "Homer sucks" or "Homer is awesome". You can be happy with his result yesterday while also being concerned that he is unlikely to repeat that result in the future.


I understand that the way he pitched yesterday isn't what we were sold re: Homer. But who's to say he's going to keep pitching like that? Maybe next time out he strikes out 10. Some of you are falling victim to what you caution everybody else about: small sample size.

But let's say he does keep pitching the way he did yesterday. Many a pitcher has carved out a fine career by not striking out a lot of people. Usually they keep their walks to a minimum but there is more than one way to pitch well.

vaticanplum
06-06-2008, 02:48 PM
Little bit.

I have serious issues with the way Homer has been treated by the media. I feel like one or two reporters may have gotten ignored by him on a bad day and now all of a sudden he's blacklisted. All we heard about this kid for a long time was how confident and mature he was, and then he was Reds enemy #1. It probably doesn't help that he's "up against" the very personable Jay Bruce. A few weeks ago, I had to go up an exit on a highway, and I turned on the game and Marty spent the ENTIRE time comparing Bailey unfavorably to Bruce in terms of personality (never did get any score for the game, let alone any play-by-play). I hate comparisons like these. You don't have to be Mr. Humble Sweetiepie to be a nice person or, more to the point, a good player. Bailey shouldn't have to suffer because Bruce is an angel; the only thing that will hurt in the end is team dynamics. Backhanded compliments like McCoy's here don't help either.

I've met Homer Bailey and he's never struck me as anything but utterly charming, gracious, and good to fans. I haven't heard anything concrete pointing to his being arrogant or unwilling to learn. If these portrayals of his personality stem from nothing but a personal vendetta -- and even if they don't -- it's potentially very damaging, not to mention irrelevant. There's a good chance that a 22-year-old will only get defensive and start acting the way people are saying he does. This hurts a talented pitcher of ours and the team he plays for.

Chip R
06-06-2008, 03:03 PM
I have serious issues with the way Homer has been treated by the media. I feel like one or two reporters may have gotten ignored by him on a bad day and now all of a sudden he's blacklisted. All we heard about this kid for a long time was how confident and mature he was, and then he was Reds enemy #1. It probably doesn't help that he's "up against" the very personable Jay Bruce. A few weeks ago, I had to go up an exit on a highway, and I turned on the game and Marty spent the ENTIRE time comparing Bailey unfavorably to Homer in terms of personality (never did get any score for the game, let alone any play-by-play). I hate comparisons like these. You don't have to be Mr. Humble Sweetiepie to be a nice person or, more to the point, a good player. Bailey shouldn't have to suffer because Bruce is an angel; the only thing that will hurt in the end is team dynamics. Backhanded compliments like McCoy's here don't help either.


Might want to clear up that part I bolded but I agree. In the game thread yesterday, Matt said something about how he hopes Homer is nice to the media after the game - or something to that effect. I thought, "I hope he stiffs them cause of the way he's been treated by them." But that isn't the mature approach and by all accounts he was very cooperative afterwards. Steve Carlton was a great pitcher for years and after a few incidents with the media, he wouldn't talk to them anymore. But he was so successful he could get away with it.

This kind of reminds me of the scene from Bull Durham when Crash told Nuke he had fungus on his shower shoes. Nuke didn't seem to think it was a big deal and Crash told him that if you are in the big leagues and are successful, you can have fungus on your shower shoes and the media will say you're colorful. But until then, you're a slob. I don't think Homer's completely blameless here but I don't think he's nearly as bad as he's been painted. But if you're a jerk to the media in the major leagues and are successful, the media will say you're intense and a competitor. But until then, you're just a jerk.

I think comparisons are unfair. Everybody is different. People bag on EE because he isn't very outgoing and doesn't smile a lot like Brandon Phillips. EE's a different person than Brandon is and if everybody were the same, it'd be a pretty boring world.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2008, 03:10 PM
I have serious issues with the way Homer has been treated by the media. I feel like one or two reporters may have gotten ignored by him on a bad day and now all of a sudden he's blacklisted. All we heard about this kid for a long time was how confident and mature he was, and then he was Reds enemy #1. It probably doesn't help that he's "up against" the very personable Jay Bruce. A few weeks ago, I had to go up an exit on a highway, and I turned on the game and Marty spent the ENTIRE time comparing Bailey unfavorably to Bruce in terms of personality (never did get any score for the game, let alone any play-by-play). I hate comparisons like these. You don't have to be Mr. Humble Sweetiepie to be a nice person or, more to the point, a good player. Bailey shouldn't have to suffer because Bruce is an angel; the only thing that will hurt in the end is team dynamics. Backhanded compliments like McCoy's here don't help either.

I've met Homer Bailey and he's never struck me as anything but utterly charming, gracious, and good to fans. I haven't heard anything concrete pointing to his being arrogant or unwilling to learn. If these portrayals of his personality stem from nothing but a personal vendetta -- and even if they don't -- it's potentially very damaging, not to mention irrelevant. There's a good chance that a 22-year-old will only get defensive and start acting the way people are saying he does. This hurts a talented pitcher of ours and the team he plays for.

Excellent post.

BCubb2003
06-06-2008, 03:14 PM
Who would have thought at any time last year that the Reds would have the best pitcher in the league this year, but it wouldn't be Harang? It would be a youngster, but it wouldn't be Bailey? Nor Cueto? I think in Bailey's case the two sides of the debate aren't mutually exclusive. In terms of long-term development, he hasn't got his strikeouts and walks where they ought to be. But we weren't expecting him to come back up at this point and pitch as well as he did. Good for him. Keep up the good work. You don't find a fifth starter like that very often, now go on to become better.

Ltlabner
06-06-2008, 03:54 PM
I understand that the way he pitched yesterday isn't what we were sold re: Homer. But who's to say he's going to keep pitching like that? Maybe next time out he strikes out 10. Some of you are falling victim to what you caution everybody else about: small sample size.

You mean excersize reason and have a perspective greater than 6 innings?

Shocking.

Yes, yes, I know that his K's have been decreasing and people have been watching his walks for more than 6 innings.

But I don't remember the rule in MLB that states a pitcher is perfectly developed and will never get any better once they reach the bigs. Nor do I remember a prohibition on a pitcher figuring it out and finally getting his brain, arm and wrist in sync.

Will he never get over the hump and burn on the ash heap of long forgotten prospects? Certinally possible, and if he keeps walking people left and right it's going to force him into a carear in food service even sooner.

Will he suddenly harness his talent and mojo and provide the Reds some value on the mound (whether as a hoss or a servicable pitcher)? It's also possible. Harang wasn't what he is today when he came over from Oakland.

Everybody (at least, I think most people) here is well aware that sucess in the big leagues doesn't include insane walk rates. He'll either get them under controll and thrive or he woln't. But to say "ho-hum" to keeping the Phillies in check because he didn't do it "the right way" completley misses the point that a player doing his part to keep his team in the game is still a pretty nice thing, even if it wasn't "textbook".

jojo
06-06-2008, 03:55 PM
I understand that the way he pitched yesterday isn't what we were sold re: Homer. But who's to say he's going to keep pitching like that? Maybe next time out he strikes out 10. Some of you are falling victim to what you caution everybody else about: small sample size.

But let's say he does keep pitching the way he did yesterday. Many a pitcher has carved out a fine career by not striking out a lot of people. Usually they keep their walks to a minimum but there is more than one way to pitch well.

I doubt anyone is judging Homer solely on 6.1 IP yesterday-some context might explain the lack of a "hip hip hooray" response for some. I wont get into last season other than to say the archives have several threads that argued Homer wasn't ready in large part because of command issues and his call up was consistent with that notion though he did have groin issues. This spring an inarguably healthy Homer had severe control issues. Since then he's shown control problems in Louisville (sure a BB/9 of 4.22 isn't life threatening per se, but his Ks are disappearing as he rises levels while his walks aren't and that is troubling). Yesterday, we pretty much saw more of the same-a "high ceiling" guy who isn't kicking the door down.

With more and more data accumulating, I think it's fair to at least entertain the possibility that we're seeing the "pitching prospect" shine wearing off of Homer's exterior right before our eyes (or to put it another way, there's some Alice in Wonderland going on with his ceiling). I'd suggest that a willingness to pause and consider the meaning of his numbers over the last two seasons shows a lack of bias.

I still think Homer can become the major league pitcher that he was projected to become (though I do think it's becoming less likely or at least it's a more risky bet). It's also true that there are a lot of ways to be a good pitcher at the major league level. That said, command is a prerequisite and Homer without the Ks may be effective but it won't be the "effective" that we'd hoped to get.

Wheelhouse
06-06-2008, 03:57 PM
Fresh from Hal McCoy's scouting bible........ Homer is now the answer because, well, he answered some questions.

I know... who cares if Bailey fed McCoy some news product. I care that he was pitch efficient and had a quality start. That's the news item. That he got along with a Dayton writer is not.

Chip R
06-06-2008, 04:10 PM
I doubt anyone is judging Homer solely on 6.1 IP yesterday-some context might explain the lack of a "hip hip hooray" response for some. I wont get into last season other than to say the archives have several threads that argued Homer wasn't ready in large part because of command issues and his call up was consistent with that notion though he did have groin issues. This spring an inarguably healthy Homer had severe control issues. Since then he's shown control problems in Louisville (sure a BB/9 of 4.22 isn't life threatening per se, but his Ks are disappearing as he rises levels while his walks aren't and that is troubling). Yesterday, we pretty much saw more of the same-a "high ceiling" guy who isn't kicking the door down.

With more and more data accumulating, I think it's fair to at least entertain the possibility that we're seeing the "pitching prospect" shine wearing off of Homer's exterior right before our eyes (or to put it another way, there's some Alice in Wonderland going on with his ceiling). I'd suggest that a willingness to pause and consider the meaning of his numbers over the last two seasons shows a lack of bias.

I still think Homer can become the major league pitcher that he was projected to become (though I do think it's becoming less likely or at least it's a more risky bet). It's also true that there are a lot of ways to be a good pitcher at the major league level. That said, command is a prerequisite and Homer without the Ks may be effective but it won't be the "effective" that we'd hoped to get.


I agree but I also think that 1 start - a quality start, mind you - doesn't mean a whole heckuva lot either way. I'm happy we got that kind of a performance from a 5th starter no matter who he was.

Homer may not reach his ceiling and may just be a middle of the rotation guy his whole career. We would have killed to have guys like that in the past. It's like Judge Smails said, "Well, the world needs ditch diggers too."

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2008, 04:19 PM
I'm not looking for Homer to come up and dominate right away. In fact, I think he's probably another year or two from reaching his potential. He still has plenty of improving to do. For one, he still needs to fill out his lanky frame and add more muscle to sustain velocity and durability. He needs to continue refining his curveball and changeup, which btw was a pretty good pitch for him yesterday from what I understand. He needs to continue improving his command and pitch efficiency, both of which were solid yesterday until he tired out in the 7th inning and lost command. Those are the things I'm look for in Homer this year. I don't expect dominance right now. If he can continue giving us starts out of the 5th spot like he did yesterday and in the meantime show improvements in the things I listed then 2008 should be a very successful season for Homer Bailey.

RedsManRick
06-06-2008, 06:12 PM
I think comparisons are unfair. Everybody is different. People bag on EE because he isn't very outgoing and doesn't smile a lot like Brandon Phillips. EE's a different person than Brandon is and if everybody were the same, it'd be a pretty boring world.

I think this last bit of insight is important. How often was Bailey getting ragged on for his temperament when he was dominating? How about EE during his hot streak? When players are under/over performing, we simply cannot help ourselves from turning that in to a judgment of character.

RedsManRick
06-06-2008, 06:28 PM
I understand that the way he pitched yesterday isn't what we were sold re: Homer. But who's to say he's going to keep pitching like that? Maybe next time out he strikes out 10. Some of you are falling victim to what you caution everybody else about: small sample size.

But let's say he does keep pitching the way he did yesterday. Many a pitcher has carved out a fine career by not striking out a lot of people. Usually they keep their walks to a minimum but there is more than one way to pitch well.

Let's ignore Homer's performance yesterday for a minute.
Now, let's also ignore Bailey's age for the moment. This is a conversation about his readiness to be a major league caliber pitcher today, not his long term projection.



IP H/9 K/9 BB/9 K/BB HR/9 ERA FIP
2007 67.3 6.55 7.89 4.28 1.84 0.53 3.07 3.65
2008 69.3 8.57 7.14 4.02 1.77 0.78 4.15 4.17
Total 136.6 7.57 7.51 4.15 1.80 0.66 3.62 3.91

If I showed that to you, does that strike you as somebody who's ready for the major leagues? To me, it looks like a very fringy guy who might be able to do ok, but is going to be in trouble if his periperhals slip at all.

In his 2008 debut, he walked 4 and struck out 1. I'm not going to hang him for it, but I'm more worried about that than I am encouraged by the fact that hitters hit balls at people and that only 2 of his 5 RA were allowed. This was just 1 data point, but it fit a trend of a guy who's stuff has not translated terribly well in AAA and the majors.

In my book, he didn't pitch terribly well and was lucky to have only 2 ER. I was happy to see him more aggressive early in the game, but either lost focus or got tired as the game wore on and got wild. The Reds lost the game. Are we really supposed to be encouraged by that? It doesn't change my view of him as a prospect, but it hardly causes me to rethink my skepticism about him being a key member of the rotation any time in the near future.

Ravenlord
06-06-2008, 06:46 PM
Nearly every team's No. 5 starter has issues. I'm always curious to know who would be the best No. 5 starter in the league.

Sean Gallagher of the Cubs. or Rich Hill when he gets recalled.

Doug Davis or Micah Owings of the Diamondbacks. . .not sure which is actually the 5th guy.

SMcGavin
06-06-2008, 08:02 PM
If I showed that to you, does that strike you as somebody who's ready for the major leagues? To me, it looks like a very fringy guy who might be able to do ok, but is going to be in trouble if his periperhals slip at all.

In his 2008 debut, he walked 4 and struck out 1. I'm not going to hang him for it, but I'm more worried about that than I am encouraged by the fact that hitters hit balls at people and that only 2 of his 5 RA were allowed. This was just 1 data point, but it fit a trend of a guy who's stuff has not translated terribly well in AAA and the majors.


I agree with just about all of this. It's why I would have stuck with Belisle for another month. If the Reds are completely convinced that Belisle's starting pitching career is over (and to me you don't pull him from the rotation unless that's what you are sure of), I'd have called up Maloney. I'm not saying it's Homer's fault, he's only 22 and he's got plenty of time to learn, but you look at his AAA numbers and you see a guy who has more work to do down there.