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HBP
06-06-2008, 10:10 AM
What's your Top 10 ranking look like now?

Mine looks like this...

1 - Daryl Thompson - the Volquez of the Reds minors. I think you have to keep him at #1 until he stops producing.

2 - Todd Frazier - he's dominated everywhere except in Sarasota and you have to think his bat will get hot again soon.

3 - Yonder Alonso - potential to be a cleanup hitter in the majors while possibly being an above average defender.

4 - Travis Wood - He's made it to AA now and looks good so far. Needs to cut down on the walks, but he's a K per IP left handed starter. It wasn't long ago that he was right behind Bailey and Bruce in the rankings.

5 - Josh Roenicke - throws serious heat and could be in the majors by the end of the year. Pitched very well in Spring Training this year.

6 - Matt Maloney - Only one sub par outing since the first of May. He's got good command and doesn't give up many HR's. He won't be a top of the line starter, but could be a solid #4 in the majors.

7 - Chris Valaika - struggled once called up to Chatt, but hitting .324 in his last 10 games.

8 - Drew Stubbs - gets on base and plays plus defense. The power numbers aren't there though and needs to work on turning some of his K's into hits.

9 - Devin Mesoraco - he's hitting well in Dayton so far and has potential to move way up on the list by the end of the year.

10 - Juan Francisco - great power numbers and has the raw talent to be a good defensive 3B. His OBP is horrible though and keeps him from being considered as a top tier prospect.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 10:33 AM
Not including Bailey:

1. Alonso
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs
5. Mesoraco
6. Francisco
7. Wood
8. Maloney
9. Valaika
10. Henry or Herrera

Hondo
06-06-2008, 10:56 AM
Can someone please get me up to speed on Todd Frazier...

Any links to his potential? Any opinions here? Where will he eventually play? I have heard 3rd, SS, and the OF...

bucksfan2
06-06-2008, 10:56 AM
1. Fraizer
Guy can hit. He probably won't play SS but IMO he forces his way into spring training invite next season
2. Mesorasco
Guy is hitting in A ball. I am starting to really like his upside.
3. Thompson
I would have ranked him 1 but there seems some hesitation in the experts in pimping him. If he continues through the summer pitching well he will be #1.
4. Stubbs
High OBP guy at the top of the order could be a huge help. GG defense is an added bonus
5. Alonso
Has yet to prove anything on the professional level
6. Valakia
He just hits.
7. Maloney
Don't really know what to think of him. Being a lefty certainly helps. But as or right now he is behind Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Thompson. Arroyo is the only guy I can forsee leaving within the next 3-4 years.
8. Francisco
Strike outs and shaky d scare me.
9. Soto
For some reason I really like the tools this guy has.
10. Cumberland
Guy has torn up AA ball this year.

redhawk61
06-06-2008, 11:02 AM
1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Mesoraco
4. Thompson
5. Stubbs
6. Fransisco
7. Roenicke
8. Wood
9. Valiaka
10. Stewart

SoTxRedsFan
06-06-2008, 11:04 AM
We moved up 4 high level prospects, and still have plenty to look forward to. 10 years ago it would have been hard to find even 4 mid level prospects.

RedlegJake
06-06-2008, 11:08 AM
Can someone please get me up to speed on Todd Frazier...

Any links to his potential? Any opinions here? Where will he eventually play? I have heard 3rd, SS, and the OF...

Excellent hitter with power. Not best of the best but the next level below that probably. Think Joey Votto from the right side. Plays 1B/3B or corner OF in Pros, although he has the arm and ability to stick at third. Good gap hitter, too will produce lots of bases. Good enough to make a push next spring although likely won't reach until the middle or end of 2009 at earliest.

TRF
06-06-2008, 11:47 AM
Thompson
Mesoraco
Frazier
Wood - Could easily be #2
Valaika
Dorn
Roenicke
Francisco
Geronimo
Stubbs

I don't see adding guys who haven't played a single professional inning yet to the list.

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 12:05 PM
Gotta like where the system is...

I would go...

1. Frazier - slumping a little in Sarasota, but he can rake, and will take a walk

2. Thompson - The shoulder still scares the heck out of me...Let him finish the year in AAA and see how he does...

3. Alonso - A big power bat that doesn't strike out and take a walk...Lets hope that he has no problem with the switch to wood bats...

4. Mesoraco - He is quickly becoming one of my favorites...Especially since this time last year, a lot of people were dogging the pick...A full year in Dayton to continue his hitting ways and work on his defense...

5. Travis Wood - Once the walks come down he has #2 or #3 starter stuff

6. Matt Maloney - He has pitched good with high k numbers...The only problem is his stuff projects to #4 starter stuff...

7. Drew Stubbs - Can't wait to see how he does when he is eventually moved to Chattanooga...I look for his numbers to rise from what they are in A+...

8. Chris Valaika - All he does it hit...Need to find him a position tho, or else he will just be a utility player with a bat...2B would be his ideal home IMO, but we have BPhil there...

9. Roenicke - Probably the closest player to the major league club right now in terms of help up there, unless bailey falters and then it would be Maloney...

10. Juan Duran - I know this is probably a little bit of a stretch, as he has not played any games in the minors yet and is only 16, but he has the tools...

Others...Soto, Stewart, Watson, Fisher, Viola, Jukich, and obvoiusly there are some others that I have missed...

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 12:09 PM
1. Alonso
2. Mesoraco
3. Stubbs
4. Frazier
5. Thompson
6. Wood
7. Valaika
8. Duran
9. Maloney
10. Lotzkar

Thats my current Top 10.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:13 PM
Stubbs #3?

Oh come on doug.

SMcGavin
06-06-2008, 12:17 PM
Off the top of my head:

1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Thompson
4. Maloney
5. Mesoraco
6. Wood
7. Stubbs
8. Roenicke
9. Valaika
10. Dorn

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 12:20 PM
Stubbs #3

Oh come on doug.

Yeah, Stubbs at #3. Stubbs at #10 behind a 24 year old reliever in the FSL, come on TRF.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:24 PM
Performance has to count for something. Stubbs has not performed. Although on second look I'd put Maloney in place of Geronimo and slide him to #11. Stubbs at #10 is all potential and SOME performance (last half of 2007, April, 2008) The rest was blech, injury or no. And he certainly wasn't injured in May of this year.

I'd absolutely NEVER put a draft choice on a list until one season of professional ball.

But that's just my opinion.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:25 PM
Performance has to count for something. Stubbs has not performed. Although on second look I'd put Maloney in place of Geronimo and slide him to #11. Stubbs at #10 is all potential and SOME performance (last half of 2007, April, 2008) The rest was blech, injury or no. And he certainly wasn't injured in May of this year.

I'd absolutely NEVER put a draft choice on a list until one season of professional ball.

But that's just my opinion.

But you have Mesoraco at #2.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:27 PM
He played in the GCL last year, and is performing two levels higher this year.

exception to the rule. :)

Plus his age and level have to be taken into account.

Doug really, Stubbs higher than Wood I don't get at all. Regardless of your thoughts on him, no way should he be higher than Wood.

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 12:30 PM
I'd absolutely NEVER put a draft choice on a list until one season of professional ball.

But that's just my opinion.
Well, generally prospect lists are made based on who has the best prospects to be a major leaguer. Keeping someone off because they have yet to play shouldn't really come into it unless you are going to redefine prospect.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:30 PM
I'd absolutely NEVER put a draft choice on a list until one season of professional ball.

But that's just my opinion.

When it's the #7 pick in the draft, it shouldn't matter.

Every website and every organization (Reds included) will immediately consider him a top prospect once he's signed. Any expert or guru that ranks top 10's per organization will have Alonzo in the the Reds top 5. No question.

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 12:31 PM
Forgot about Lotzkar, as he has yet to pitch in a game yet...Can't wait to see how he does this year...He is only 18-19 right?

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:32 PM
perhaps, but the idea is incomplete as most if not all new draftees have never played with wooden bats.

I prefer 1 year's worth of data. You have added a guy that hasn't even signed a contract yet. Another problem I have with these lists.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:33 PM
When it's the #7 pick in the draft, it shouldn't matter.

Every website and every organization (Reds included) will immediately consider him a top prospect once he's signed. Any expert or guru that ranks top 10's per organization will have Alonzo in the the Reds top 5. No question.

Wasn't the Astros #1 pick generally panned? Is he automatically in their top 10 now?

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:34 PM
Wasn't Stubbs a top 100 prospect coming into the year? On most top 10 lists (I'm looking at a sporting news right now), Stubbs was ranked 5th best prospect in the Reds organization coming into the year (behind main four: Cueto, Bailey, Votto, and Bruce).

And now those four are all in the bigs. By default, you could make a case that he's now #1. I wouldn't, but he's definitely up there.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:35 PM
perhaps, but the idea is incomplete as most if not all new draftees have never played with wooden bats.

I prefer 1 year's worth of data. You have added a guy that hasn't even signed a contract yet. Another problem I have with these lists.

Mesoraco doesn't even have a full year of data. Plus, he came straight from metal bats in HS. Alonso played a whole summer with wooden bats in the Cape Cod.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:36 PM
Wasn't Stubbs a top 100 prospect coming tino the year, On most top 10 lists (I'm looking at a sporting news right now), Stubbs was ranked 5th best prospect in the Reds organization coming into the year (behind main four: Cueto, Bailey, Votto, and Bruce).

They are all in the bigs. By default you could make a case that he's now #1. I wouldn't, but he's defintely up there.

That's my issue. These lists generally are projection and not performance based. Someone let me know when Stubbs has had as good a season as Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier or Chris Valaika. After their first season in Rookie ball they should be added to prospect lists. It's like college b-ball pre-season rankings. meaningless.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:37 PM
Wasn't the Astros #1 pick generally panned? Is he automatically in their top 10 now?


I thought the Astros #1 pick (Castro) was awful, but their system is currently one of the worst in baseball, so yeah, he should be in their top 10 no doubt.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 12:40 PM
That's my issue. These lists generally are projection and not performance based. Someone let me know when Stubbs has had as good a season as Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier or Chris Valaika. After their first season in Rookie ball they should be added to prospect lists. It's like college b-ball pre-season rankings. meaningless.


And yet, I would guarantee you that Stubbs would have way more trade value than either Dorn or Valaika.

Frazier was a high pick, so performance or not he would command value as well.

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 12:43 PM
That's my issue. These lists generally are projection and not performance based. Someone let me know when Stubbs has had as good a season as Danny Dorn, Todd Frazier or Chris Valaika. After their first season in Rookie ball they should be added to prospect lists. It's like college b-ball pre-season rankings. meaningless.

You seem to be in the vast minority with this...This is not how prospect rankings are done, they are based on potential...

It is fine if you want to do you list the way you do, but to criticize others based on way most are done, puts you in the minority...

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 12:43 PM
Doug really, Stubbs higher than Wood I don't get at all. Regardless of your thoughts on him, no way should he be higher than Wood.

I disagree. Don't let the FSL numbers blind you.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:47 PM
Mesoraco doesn't even have a full year of data. Plus, he came straight from metal bats in HS. Alonso played a whole summer with wooden bats in the Cape Cod.

He had 40 games in the GCL, and he's at Dayton now and performing. And he's just 20 years old, well, he'll be 20 in less than 2 weeks. He's performing at a high level (something Stubbs didn't do at Dayton until half the year had gone by) at a very young age.

Alonso had about 40 games last summer and performed well from all accounts. But he still has no track record as a pro. I'd say the minimum is at least one season of rookie ball in order to add players to top ten lists.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:49 PM
I disagree. Don't let the FSL numbers blind you.

I'm not. I'm letting Wood's Southern League numbers dazzle me.

Why do you discount the FSL when it comes to Stubbs poor May? He seemed fine in April. Or is it that perhaps April was more of a fluke than May?

Screwball
06-06-2008, 12:50 PM
1. Alonso
2. Mesoraco
3. Stubbs
4. Frazier
5. Thompson
6. Wood
7. Valaika
8. Duran
9. Maloney
10. Lotzkar

Thats my current Top 10.

I was waiting for someone to put Duran in their top 10. He's got the tools to be an absolute beast down the road.

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 12:51 PM
I'm not. I'm letting Wood's Southern League numbers dazzle me.

Why do you discount the FSL when it comes to Stubbs poor May? He seemed fine in April. Or is it that perhaps April was more of a fluke than May?

We have gone over this at least 3 times in other threads. Go read those. Wood is a fine prospect, potentially a Top 125 prospect in baseball at this point. The Reds system, despite graduating Bailey, Bruce, Votto and Cueto this year still could have the potential to have 5 or 6 guys in the top 100 this year.

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 12:52 PM
I'm not. I'm letting Wood's Southern League numbers dazzle me.

Why do you discount the FSL when it comes to Stubbs poor May? He seemed fine in April. Or is it that perhaps April was more of a fluke than May?

How many times...His numbers in may were unlucky, based on line drive rate...He is starting to turn things back around and has two doubles in his past couple games...

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 12:53 PM
I was waiting for someone to put Duran in their top 10. He's got the tools to be an absolute beast down the road.

Yeah I really like him, I have him in my top 10...I really hope that he sees a little time in the GCL this year...

Screwball
06-06-2008, 12:55 PM
Yeah I really like him, I have him in my top 10...I really hope that he sees a little time in the GCL this year...

Ah, I missed you having him at #10 in yours. Yeah he's still incredibly young and raw, but a potential 80 power makes me salivate.

Cyclone792
06-06-2008, 12:59 PM
A quick list here, nothing too concrete ...

1) Alonso
2) Frazier
3) Thompson
4) Mesoraco
5) Maloney
6) Stubbs
7) Valaika
8) Wood
9) Duran
10) Lotzkar

There's always been interesting discussion about Stubbs for the last two years, but I'm waiting for his attempt to take on Southern League pitching once he reaches Chattanooga. I think that will be a pretty good step in determining the probability of Stubbs' success moving forward.

TRF
06-06-2008, 12:59 PM
We have gone over this at least 3 times in other threads. Go read those. Wood is a fine prospect, potentially a Top 125 prospect in baseball at this point. The Reds system, despite graduating Bailey, Bruce, Votto and Cueto this year still could have the potential to have 5 or 6 guys in the top 100 this year.

I think Wood will be higher than that. I also think you tend to do two things with Reds prospects: overvalue the higher picks by ignoring their flaws. You once touted Stubbs as a potential .900 OPS guy in the majors. You also tend to dismiss performance over potential. Wood, taken in the context of his development, and the things the Reds tried to make him do in Dayton is easily a top 100 prospect. He pitched extremely well in Sarasota, and is pitching better in Chatt.

I agree that the Reds could have 5-6 guys in the top 100. I don't think at this point Stubbs is one of them. Knowing that BA will likely put Alonso in their top 100 list I see the reds having the following in the top 100:

Thompson, Frazier, Mesoraco, Wood, Alonso.

Maybe not in that order, but those 5 easily.

BuckeyeRedleg
06-06-2008, 01:00 PM
He had 40 games in the GCL, and he's at Dayton now and performing. And he's just 20 years old, well, he'll be 20 in less than 2 weeks. He's performing at a high level (something Stubbs didn't do at Dayton until half the year had gone by) at a very young age.

Mesoraco was flat out terrible last year. That is no debate. He has done well so far in Dayton, but it has been in very small body of work, as he was just recently called up.

I agree he's one of the Reds top prospects, but I was just going by your performance and one full-year criteria, in which he has not fulfilled either at this point.

Whether he has seen a pro pitch or not, between three years at Miami and one summer in the Cape Cod, Alonso has already faced better and more competition than Mesoraco. Even if Alonso has the worst case beginning to his pro career and struggles at Dayton or Sarasota, a year from now he's still a top 10 Reds prospect on everyone's list, so what difference does it make if has a full year under his belt?

TRF
06-06-2008, 01:01 PM
How many times...His numbers in may were unlucky, based on line drive rate...He is starting to turn things back around and has two doubles in his past couple games...

Luck had something to do with it, but an OPS of .612 in May isn't just bad luck.

dougdirt
06-06-2008, 01:08 PM
I think Wood will be higher than that. I also think you tend to do two things with Reds prospects: overvalue the higher picks by ignoring their flaws. You once touted Stubbs as a potential .900 OPS guy in the majors. You also tend to dismiss performance over potential. Wood, taken in the context of his development, and the things the Reds tried to make him do in Dayton is easily a top 100 prospect. He pitched extremely well in Sarasota, and is pitching better in Chatt.

Not sure about that. Performance matters, but only to a certain point. The key is to see why they are performing the way they are and how that projects going forward. Ramon Geronimo and Robert Manuel are absolutely dominating the competition right now. Neither are even close to the Reds top relievers (ok, Geronimo might be 4th or 5th best reliever). Performance only goes so far, projection, while tougher to put your finger on, is a lot more valuable when it comes to projecting someones future.

crazyredfan40
06-06-2008, 01:15 PM
Luck had something to do with it, but an OPS of .612 in May isn't just bad luck.

So the numbers are lying? The league numbers are lying...Why don't you accept the fact that while his numbers didn't look great in May they don't tell the whole story...Numbers don't tell the whole story, you have to figure out what is going to into those numbers and getting them to those numbers...

Thus unlucky #'s due to linedrive rate, hard league to hit in, thus lack of power numbers, etc...

reds44
06-06-2008, 01:19 PM
1. Mesoraco
Big value for catchers who can hit.
2. Thompson
3. Frazier
4. Alonso
5. Stubbs
6. Wood
7. Francisco
8. Maloney
9. Duran
10. Valaika

PuffyPig
06-06-2008, 01:19 PM
1. Alonso
2. Mesoraco
3. Stubbs
4. Frazier
5. Thompson
6. Wood
7. Valaika
8. Duran
9. Maloney
10. Lotzkar

Thats my current Top 10.

I like this list better than anyone's else. And it would certainly be closer to something BA would likely do.

LoganBuck
06-06-2008, 01:46 PM
Frazier
Mesoraco
Alonso
Stubbs
Valaika
Thompson
Wood
Duran
Lotzkar
Watson

membengal
06-06-2008, 01:50 PM
1. Thompson
2. Wood (I really like him, and think we have a gem coming. Watch and see)
3. Frazier
4. Stubbs (count me on the he's-undervalued-on-this-board group)
5. Alonso
6. Mesoraco
7. Valaika
8. Roenicke
9. Maloney
10. Francisco

*BaseClogger*
06-06-2008, 02:13 PM
1. Alonso
2. Mesoraco
3. Frazier
4. Thompson
5. Stubbs
6. Maloney
7. Valaika
8. Wood
9. Duran
10. Lotzkar

I don't know much about Duran or Lotzkar, so I am putting some faith in the scouting reports. It was really tough to not include Francisco or Roenicke...

11larkin11
06-06-2008, 02:15 PM
1.Frazier
2.Alonso
3.Stubbs
4.Mesoraco
5.Thompson
6.Wood
7.Maloney
8.Lotzkar
9.Duran
10.Valaika

Scrap Irony
06-06-2008, 04:38 PM
1. Frazier, 1B/ 3B/ OF
The Good: He can hit. Frazier has done nothing to dispell his massive numbers since the start of his pro career last June. He's hit with power and he has excellent plate discipline.
The Bad: If he's a cornere OF, Frazier's bat isn't all that special. Even as a 3B, it's just above average. Red brass have decided he can't play SS. At the hot corner, he's an excellent prospect. At 2B, he's an excellent prospect. In LF, he's so-so.

2. Thompson, RHSP
The Good: No one in the minor leagues has done more this season to improve his stock than the former Expo/ Nat. His FB is solid, but his demeanor on the mound and control seperates him from others. He absolutely refuses to beat himself. As a result, he's flourished.
The Bad: For all his success, Thompson's stuff isn't all that phenomenal. It's good, don't get me wrong. But it's not top-of-the-line good. And that's the type of numbers he's putting up. He could be similar to Aaron Harang and Tom Browning and pitch better than his stuff. More than likely, however, he's simply getting a bit lucky. Still, he's a solid #3 rotation candidate. And that's pretty darn great for a team that always needs more pitching.

3. Alonso 1B/ 3B?
The Good: Alonso's bat may produce great power numbers. His bat may produce a batting title or two. It will always produce a great OBP. Alonso swings at good pitches to hit and he hits them.
The Bad: Frankly, he's limited. He'll never be a truly outstanding defensive player and his bat has to carry him. That's okay, but, as a 1B only, he'll have to be extraordinarily good with the bat to justify his #7 draft position. He can't simply be as good as Joey Votto (who, in his own right, is above average); he'll need to be better.

4. Wood, LHSP
The Good: Wood has the best change-up in the minor leagues. He's also a southpaw, and he has a decent fastball despite rumors to the contrary. (I've seen radar and he sits in the low 90's and high 80's throughout a game and can dial it up to 94.) He's also still learning how to pitch and has put up excellent numbers at three stops along the Red farm system. He has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation lefty. And that's worth it's weight in gold.
The Bad: The further up the line he goes, the more Wood has struggled. Until this season. Part of that can be laid at the feet of injuries. He's been hampered with those little nagging hurts for two years. Finally completely healthy, Wood has returned to form.

5. Lotzkar, RHSP
The Good: Lotskar's pure stuff is ace material. His success last season is also a good sign. He's very, very young and has a plus-plus fastball and late life on his off-speed stuff. With the Cincinnati pitching coaches teaching an effective change, he should blossom into a legitimate three pitch guy with at least two solid pitches. That's a #2 starter at worst.
The Bad: Many a young ace has turned into a pumpkin before climbing the ladder to major league success and Lotskar's ladder is longer than most. He's only on rung one.

6. Stubbs, CF
The Good: Gold Glove, patience, and speed. Stubbs looks like a good bet to have a high OBP and great D at a premium position. Why Redszone seemingly despises him is beyond me.
The Bad: For all his tools, Stubbs hasn't done all he should. He's been... blah... for the most part. He'll make the majors but may never be more than a fine fourth OF.

7. Mesoraco, C
The Good: Mesoraco has been a pleasant suprise this month, hitting well a full two levels higher than where he struggled mightily last season. A 800+ OPS from a catcher is extremely valuable and Mesoraco has shown some suprising pop, too.
The Bad: He's only been hitting for a month. It may all be helium at this point. Check back in September.

8. Valaika, SS/ 2B
The Good: Valaika, until last season, hit like Pete Rose. Last season, he hit like Pete Rose, Jr. This year, back to Rose, Sr. And he plays SS. If he continues to play short, he's a really nice candidate for Top 100 Prospect status.
The Bad: Valaika isn't necessarily a SS. He's more of a 2B. That's great, but Cincinnati has a guy there who just got paid a whole lot of money to play there. If Valaika is more High A this season and less AA, he's a Top 50 prospect. If he's a utility guy, he's not even Top 250.

9. Duran, CF/ RF
The Good: Talent and potential ooze from his 6'7" frame. He's a CF right now, but most think he's a RF in a couple years. Duran could grow into 80 power and his arm is already a cannon. He also has good speed right now and a solid, solid bat.
The Bad: Duran, for all his potential, hasn't played game one of professional baseball. And all the talent in the world doesn't mean squat if you don't do it on the field. He's at least four years away (and that's being generous). Still, talent like Duran's doesn't come along every year. He could be special.

10. Maloney, LHSP
The Good: The polar opposite of Duran, in that he's never been a great perephial guy. All he's done is succeed at each level. Not just succeed, but dominate. It's no different in AAA this year. After an unlucky start, Maloney has been lights out since May 1. He K's batters by the bunches and he's a lefty.
The Bad: His fastball is fair, but nothing to write home about. And, for all his success, Maloney's still considered a #3 starter in the majors. At best. Still, to have Maloney as the #10 prospect in your system says a lot about the strength of the Redleg minor leagues.

They're stacked.

Of course, little of that talent is top end. Perhaps none of it. The depth is extraordinary, though. And, after graduating five really nice prospects this season, depth becomes important.

RedsManRick
06-06-2008, 04:59 PM
I'm more or less with Cyclone. Right or wrong, I put a lot of value on polish. I'm excited to have a few big skill, high ceiling guys around. But to me, those raw skills just mean that you should move up the board quickly if and when you put it together.

OnBaseMachine
06-06-2008, 05:01 PM
A quick list here, nothing too concrete ...

1) Alonso
2) Frazier
3) Thompson
4) Mesoraco
5) Maloney
6) Stubbs
7) Valaika
8) Wood
9) Duran
10) Lotzkar

There's always been interesting discussion about Stubbs for the last two years, but I'm waiting for his attempt to take on Southern League pitching once he reaches Chattanooga. I think that will be a pretty good step in determining the probability of Stubbs' success moving forward.

I also like this list though I would put Josh Roenicke at number 10 and Lotzkar 10a.

Kc61
06-06-2008, 05:15 PM
1. Alonso -- upside seems unlimited, potential all star hitter
2. Thompson -- near readiness as solid starter at young age
3. Mesoraco -- catcher way ahead of game hitting at Dayton
4, Frazier -- destroyed low A, needs to settle on position
5. Francisco -- underrated, only 20 at High A, discipline will come, great potential
6. Roenicke -- way underrated in this thread, moving quickly toward Reds pen
7. Stubbs -- will be a major leaguer, walks are great, needs to hit
8. Duran -- based on reports -- if he starts well he's in top three
9. Wood -- excellent year, let's see if AA hitters catch up to him
10. Valaika -- edges out Lotzkar and Watson because of terrific hitting at High A. The other two are next.

Moving up -- Tonys Gutierrez has displayed great on base skills and may soon need to be considered for these lists

Out of top ten for now -- Maloney has good peripherals but has given up a lot of AAA runs.

Blue
06-06-2008, 07:15 PM
1. Alonso
2. Mesoraco
3. Frazier
4. Thompson
5. Stubbs

After that, a muddled group of pretty decent prospects who have not distinguished themselves from one another. Still good depth after all the promotions, but not as elite at the top. That could change, however, with the development of Mez, Lotzkar, Soto, Duran, and the like.

mth123
06-06-2008, 09:45 PM
I'll take a stab. I think the team goes about 20 deep with solid guys and numbers 6 -20 are pretty interchangeable as far as the order goes. System as a whole drops though with Bruce, Votto, Cueto and Bailey graduating.

1. Frazier
2. Alonso
3. Mesoraco (big move up for me with him)
4. Thompson
5. Roenicke
6. Cumberland (another big move up)
7. Wood (another riser)
8. Valaika
9. Maloney (for trade value. I'm a skeptic here)
10. Herrera

Just missed:

Jukich, Henry, Gutierrez, Stubbs, Dorn, Francisco, Waring, Lotzkar, Soto, Duran

Biggest Drops:

Rosales, Fisher

Ben
06-06-2008, 10:09 PM
Interesting Thread. I'll go

1.) Alonso (I think alot of people who are criticizing this pick will be eating their words shortly...say, 2010)
2.) Mesoraco (Very encouraging to see his progress with the bat...as reds44 said earlier catchers who can rake are extremely valuable)
3.) Stubbs (poor man's Grady Sizemore...high OBP, can go get it in center)
4.) Thompson (matter of time before he's in Cincy/MLB...his value has skyrocketed this year)
5.) Wood (best changeup in the minors...if he can consistantly maintain his velocity in the low 90s the sky is the limit)
6.) Frazier (matter of time before he's over .300 in high-A)
7.) Roenicke (he'll be up as soon as Weathers/Affeldt are dealt)
8.) Maloney (highly underrated by many around here)
9.) Duran (Can not wait to see/follow this kid...will likely vault up this list as soon as he gets started)
10.) Valiaka (it'll be interesting to see if he stays at SS or move off to 2B or 3B)

Blitz Dorsey
06-07-2008, 12:28 AM
1. Frazier, 1B/ 3B/ OF
The Good: He can hit. Frazier has done nothing to dispell his massive numbers since the start of his pro career last June. He's hit with power and he has excellent plate discipline.
The Bad: If he's a cornere OF, Frazier's bat isn't all that special. Even as a 3B, it's just above average. Red brass have decided he can't play SS. At the hot corner, he's an excellent prospect. At 2B, he's an excellent prospect. In LF, he's so-so.

2. Thompson, RHSP
The Good: No one in the minor leagues has done more this season to improve his stock than the former Expo/ Nat. His FB is solid, but his demeanor on the mound and control seperates him from others. He absolutely refuses to beat himself. As a result, he's flourished.
The Bad: For all his success, Thompson's stuff isn't all that phenomenal. It's good, don't get me wrong. But it's not top-of-the-line good. And that's the type of numbers he's putting up. He could be similar to Aaron Harang and Tom Browning and pitch better than his stuff. More than likely, however, he's simply getting a bit lucky. Still, he's a solid #3 rotation candidate. And that's pretty darn great for a team that always needs more pitching.

3. Alonso 1B/ 3B?
The Good: Alonso's bat may produce great power numbers. His bat may produce a batting title or two. It will always produce a great OBP. Alonso swings at good pitches to hit and he hits them.
The Bad: Frankly, he's limited. He'll never be a truly outstanding defensive player and his bat has to carry him. That's okay, but, as a 1B only, he'll have to be extraordinarily good with the bat to justify his #7 draft position. He can't simply be as good as Joey Votto (who, in his own right, is above average); he'll need to be better.

4. Wood, LHSP
The Good: Wood has the best change-up in the minor leagues. He's also a southpaw, and he has a decent fastball despite rumors to the contrary. (I've seen radar and he sits in the low 90's and high 80's throughout a game and can dial it up to 94.) He's also still learning how to pitch and has put up excellent numbers at three stops along the Red farm system. He has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation lefty. And that's worth it's weight in gold.
The Bad: The further up the line he goes, the more Wood has struggled. Until this season. Part of that can be laid at the feet of injuries. He's been hampered with those little nagging hurts for two years. Finally completely healthy, Wood has returned to form.

5. Lotzkar, RHSP
The Good: Lotskar's pure stuff is ace material. His success last season is also a good sign. He's very, very young and has a plus-plus fastball and late life on his off-speed stuff. With the Cincinnati pitching coaches teaching an effective change, he should blossom into a legitimate three pitch guy with at least two solid pitches. That's a #2 starter at worst.
The Bad: Many a young ace has turned into a pumpkin before climbing the ladder to major league success and Lotskar's ladder is longer than most. He's only on rung one.

6. Stubbs, CF
The Good: Gold Glove, patience, and speed. Stubbs looks like a good bet to have a high OBP and great D at a premium position. Why Redszone seemingly despises him is beyond me.
The Bad: For all his tools, Stubbs hasn't done all he should. He's been... blah... for the most part. He'll make the majors but may never be more than a fine fourth OF.

7. Mesoraco, C
The Good: Mesoraco has been a pleasant suprise this month, hitting well a full two levels higher than where he struggled mightily last season. A 800+ OPS from a catcher is extremely valuable and Mesoraco has shown some suprising pop, too.
The Bad: He's only been hitting for a month. It may all be helium at this point. Check back in September.

8. Valaika, SS/ 2B
The Good: Valaika, until last season, hit like Pete Rose. Last season, he hit like Pete Rose, Jr. This year, back to Rose, Sr. And he plays SS. If he continues to play short, he's a really nice candidate for Top 100 Prospect status.
The Bad: Valaika isn't necessarily a SS. He's more of a 2B. That's great, but Cincinnati has a guy there who just got paid a whole lot of money to play there. If Valaika is more High A this season and less AA, he's a Top 50 prospect. If he's a utility guy, he's not even Top 250.

9. Duran, CF/ RF
The Good: Talent and potential ooze from his 6'7" frame. He's a CF right now, but most think he's a RF in a couple years. Duran could grow into 80 power and his arm is already a cannon. He also has good speed right now and a solid, solid bat.
The Bad: Duran, for all his potential, hasn't played game one of professional baseball. And all the talent in the world doesn't mean squat if you don't do it on the field. He's at least four years away (and that's being generous). Still, talent like Duran's doesn't come along every year. He could be special.

10. Maloney, LHSP
The Good: The polar opposite of Duran, in that he's never been a great perephial guy. All he's done is succeed at each level. Not just succeed, but dominate. It's no different in AAA this year. After an unlucky start, Maloney has been lights out since May 1. He K's batters by the bunches and he's a lefty.
The Bad: His fastball is fair, but nothing to write home about. And, for all his success, Maloney's still considered a #3 starter in the majors. At best. Still, to have Maloney as the #10 prospect in your system says a lot about the strength of the Redleg minor leagues.

They're stacked.

Of course, little of that talent is top end. Perhaps none of it. The depth is extraordinary, though. And, after graduating five really nice prospects this season, depth becomes important.

Good stuff. However, you answer your own question on Stubbs. When the No. 8 overall pick of the draft "hasn't done all he should" (or even close) and when there was a stud college pitcher like Lincecum on the board, the Stubbs pick is going to get ripped. I don't think anyone "despises" Drew Stubbs the person, it's not his fault that the Reds drafted him, but I think a lot of people like myself hated the pick from the moment it was made and it's only gotten worse over time. I would have to put Mesoraco over him as a prospect at this point.

Good points on Lotzkar. I agree his few stars last year in rookie ball (9 or something like that) were very encouraging. That was a good pick in the supplemental round last year.

Screwball
06-08-2008, 11:18 PM
1. Frazier, 1B/ 3B/ OF
The Good: He can hit. Frazier has done nothing to dispell his massive numbers since the start of his pro career last June. He's hit with power and he has excellent plate discipline.
The Bad: If he's a cornere OF, Frazier's bat isn't all that special. Even as a 3B, it's just above average. Red brass have decided he can't play SS. At the hot corner, he's an excellent prospect. At 2B, he's an excellent prospect. In LF, he's so-so.

2. Thompson, RHSP
The Good: No one in the minor leagues has done more this season to improve his stock than the former Expo/ Nat. His FB is solid, but his demeanor on the mound and control seperates him from others. He absolutely refuses to beat himself. As a result, he's flourished.
The Bad: For all his success, Thompson's stuff isn't all that phenomenal. It's good, don't get me wrong. But it's not top-of-the-line good. And that's the type of numbers he's putting up. He could be similar to Aaron Harang and Tom Browning and pitch better than his stuff. More than likely, however, he's simply getting a bit lucky. Still, he's a solid #3 rotation candidate. And that's pretty darn great for a team that always needs more pitching.

3. Alonso 1B/ 3B?
The Good: Alonso's bat may produce great power numbers. His bat may produce a batting title or two. It will always produce a great OBP. Alonso swings at good pitches to hit and he hits them.
The Bad: Frankly, he's limited. He'll never be a truly outstanding defensive player and his bat has to carry him. That's okay, but, as a 1B only, he'll have to be extraordinarily good with the bat to justify his #7 draft position. He can't simply be as good as Joey Votto (who, in his own right, is above average); he'll need to be better.

4. Wood, LHSP
The Good: Wood has the best change-up in the minor leagues. He's also a southpaw, and he has a decent fastball despite rumors to the contrary. (I've seen radar and he sits in the low 90's and high 80's throughout a game and can dial it up to 94.) He's also still learning how to pitch and has put up excellent numbers at three stops along the Red farm system. He has a chance to be a top-of-the-rotation lefty. And that's worth it's weight in gold.
The Bad: The further up the line he goes, the more Wood has struggled. Until this season. Part of that can be laid at the feet of injuries. He's been hampered with those little nagging hurts for two years. Finally completely healthy, Wood has returned to form.

5. Lotzkar, RHSP
The Good: Lotskar's pure stuff is ace material. His success last season is also a good sign. He's very, very young and has a plus-plus fastball and late life on his off-speed stuff. With the Cincinnati pitching coaches teaching an effective change, he should blossom into a legitimate three pitch guy with at least two solid pitches. That's a #2 starter at worst.
The Bad: Many a young ace has turned into a pumpkin before climbing the ladder to major league success and Lotskar's ladder is longer than most. He's only on rung one.

6. Stubbs, CF
The Good: Gold Glove, patience, and speed. Stubbs looks like a good bet to have a high OBP and great D at a premium position. Why Redszone seemingly despises him is beyond me.
The Bad: For all his tools, Stubbs hasn't done all he should. He's been... blah... for the most part. He'll make the majors but may never be more than a fine fourth OF.

7. Mesoraco, C
The Good: Mesoraco has been a pleasant suprise this month, hitting well a full two levels higher than where he struggled mightily last season. A 800+ OPS from a catcher is extremely valuable and Mesoraco has shown some suprising pop, too.
The Bad: He's only been hitting for a month. It may all be helium at this point. Check back in September.

8. Valaika, SS/ 2B
The Good: Valaika, until last season, hit like Pete Rose. Last season, he hit like Pete Rose, Jr. This year, back to Rose, Sr. And he plays SS. If he continues to play short, he's a really nice candidate for Top 100 Prospect status.
The Bad: Valaika isn't necessarily a SS. He's more of a 2B. That's great, but Cincinnati has a guy there who just got paid a whole lot of money to play there. If Valaika is more High A this season and less AA, he's a Top 50 prospect. If he's a utility guy, he's not even Top 250.

9. Duran, CF/ RF
The Good: Talent and potential ooze from his 6'7" frame. He's a CF right now, but most think he's a RF in a couple years. Duran could grow into 80 power and his arm is already a cannon. He also has good speed right now and a solid, solid bat.
The Bad: Duran, for all his potential, hasn't played game one of professional baseball. And all the talent in the world doesn't mean squat if you don't do it on the field. He's at least four years away (and that's being generous). Still, talent like Duran's doesn't come along every year. He could be special.

10. Maloney, LHSP
The Good: The polar opposite of Duran, in that he's never been a great perephial guy. All he's done is succeed at each level. Not just succeed, but dominate. It's no different in AAA this year. After an unlucky start, Maloney has been lights out since May 1. He K's batters by the bunches and he's a lefty.
The Bad: His fastball is fair, but nothing to write home about. And, for all his success, Maloney's still considered a #3 starter in the majors. At best. Still, to have Maloney as the #10 prospect in your system says a lot about the strength of the Redleg minor leagues.

They're stacked.

Of course, little of that talent is top end. Perhaps none of it. The depth is extraordinary, though. And, after graduating five really nice prospects this season, depth becomes important.

Exellent post, SI. Very informative and level-headed analysis. I'd probably have Alonso 1 or 2 instead of 3, but tough to argue with your list. Once again, great work.

kaldaniels
06-09-2008, 11:04 AM
1. Fraizer
Guy can hit. He probably won't play SS but IMO he forces his way into spring training invite next season
2. Mesorasco
Guy is hitting in A ball. I am starting to really like his upside.
3. Thompson
I would have ranked him 1 but there seems some hesitation in the experts in pimping him. If he continues through the summer pitching well he will be #1.
4. Stubbs
High OBP guy at the top of the order could be a huge help. GG defense is an added bonus
5. Alonso
Has yet to prove anything on the professional level
6. Valakia
He just hits.
7. Maloney
Don't really know what to think of him. Being a lefty certainly helps. But as or right now he is behind Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, and Thompson. Arroyo is the only guy I can forsee leaving within the next 3-4 years.
8. Francisco
Strike outs and shaky d scare me.
9. Soto
For some reason I really like the tools this guy has.
10. Cumberland
Guy has torn up AA ball this year.


There has been alot of hesistation in that regard...why is that???

dougdirt
06-09-2008, 12:31 PM
There has been alot of hesistation in that regard...why is that???

They want to see him hold up for the long haul. Guys with major shoulder surgery under their belt already draw serious questions about their performance going forward. When you have a guy with that on his record and then has improved stuff its going to make people curious whether he can hold it up for an entire season.

Mario-Rijo
06-09-2008, 12:39 PM
There has been alot of hesistation in that regard...why is that???

The injury concerns, once you've had an arm surgery of any kind it increases the likelihood of a future injury or at least everybody thinks so. And the lack of a good offspeed pitch. His change-up is way behind the development of his other pitches. Once he get's that change-up working solid he's a legitimate #3 until then he's a BOR (Back of Rotation) candidate or probably moreso a BOB (Back of Bullpen) candidate.

RedlegJake
06-09-2008, 01:44 PM
Daryl Thompson

Todd Frazier

Yonder Alonso

Travis Wood

Josh Roenicke

Matt Maloney

Chris Valaika

Drew Stubbs

Devin Mesoraco

Juan Francisco

Danny Herrerra

Sean Henry

Neftali Soto

Sean Cumberland

Zach Stewart

Danny Dorn

Juan Duran

Ramon Geronimo

Ben Jukich

Kyle Lotzkar

Sean Watson

Tonys Gutierrez

21 guys who get someone's eye as a top ten. That's pretty incredible and still leaves out some who could be on the list like Jeffords, Viola, Castro, Fisher, Reed, Pelland, Ravin, Dickerson and some of the draftees who will sign. Expect at least a couple to surprise and hit these lists next year (as well as as couple who'll disappoint). That's a very deep farm system and with Frazier, Alonso, Thompson, Roenicke one that still has some premiere level talent developing despite promotions for Bruce, Bailey and Cueto.

Mario-Rijo
06-09-2008, 03:00 PM
As far as my top ten goes, I find it neccessary to include this/these caveat. I base my top ten on probability + ceiling + impact and that's in order of importance too me. I don't care how high a guys ceiling is if he has question marks surrounding him that make his probability of making it to and staying at the big league level minimal. IMO that's not a prospect it's a suspect. The further away from the bigs the less likely they are to make it. That IMO is why we have so many arguments about prospects list we all have different criteria about what a prospect is.

That said here's mine off the top of my head.

1.) Thompson
2.) Frazier
3.) Valaika
4.) Wood
5.) Alonso
6.) Roenicke
7.) Stubbs
8.) Mesoraco
9.) Maloney
10.) Rosales

If I were ranking it strictly on star power this list could be it although I don't know about the order after Thompson it's somewhat interchangeable.

1.) Frazier
2.) Alonso
3.) Thompson
4.) Mesoraco
5.) Stubbs
6.) Wood
7.) Valaika
8.) Roenicke
9.) Soto
10.) Lotzkar

11larkin11
06-09-2008, 04:43 PM
I think you are underrating Mesoraco.

Mario-Rijo
06-09-2008, 06:59 PM
I think you are underrating Mesoraco.

I don't think so but you may have a different set of criteria than me. I think if he makes it all the way to MLB he is likely an above avg overall catcher. But that's a long way off and for that reason only I moved him down the list.

I would add that just because he projects to hit better than your avg catcher (at this point anyhow) doesn't make him a sure thing. If hitting alone makes you an impact player then Johnny Estrada wouldn't be on his 4th team in 4 years. Now I'm not comparing him to Estrada but he does need to be able to call a game, play good defense, stay healthy etc. And although he looks the part right now it's a long way off given his age and realistic distance from MLB.

I mean let's face it, we can't say with 100% certainty that he won't find himself in Billings before the end of this season, although right now it looks like he will skip it. The fact that he was a #1 pick keeps him high on the list right now for most and not much more.

dougdirt
06-09-2008, 07:29 PM
The fact that he was a #1 pick keeps him high on the list right now for most and not much more.

The fact that he is hitting extremely well for a teenager in the Midwest League has less to do with his ranking than where he was drafted at? Teenagers in the MWL from 2002-2005 the average OPS for a teenager in the MWL was .725. Take first baseman out of the equation and its down to .705. Mesoraco is hitting very well for his age in the MWL.

Mario-Rijo
06-09-2008, 07:39 PM
The fact that he is hitting extremely well for a teenager in the Midwest League has less to do with his ranking than where he was drafted at? Teenagers in the MWL from 2002-2005 the average OPS for a teenager in the MWL was .725. Take first baseman out of the equation and its down to .705. Mesoraco is hitting very well for his age in the MWL.

He has 96 PA's and a .764 OPS (small sample alert), and those #'s you are speaking of are for how many PA's? And to take that one stat further he's killing LHP's in a much smaller sample size (.876 in 39 PA's) and vs. RHP he has 57 PA's and a paltry .681 OPS. He is doing ok given his age and inexperience but he's not exactly got a track record yet. Let the league adjust too him and see what happens, then it should be a much better picture.

dougdirt
06-09-2008, 07:45 PM
He has 96 PA's and a .764 OPS (small sample alert), and those #'s you are speaking of are for how many PA's? And to take that one stat further he's killing LHP's in a much smaller sample size (.876 in 39 PA's) and vs. RHP he has 57 PA's and a paltry .681 OPS. He is doing ok given his age and inexperience but he's not exactly got a track record yet. Let the league adjust too him and see what happens, then it should be a much better picture.

Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.

Mario-Rijo
06-09-2008, 07:47 PM
Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.

I agree so far so good, let's hope he keeps it up and then some. :thumbup:

But just strictly based on his age and distance from MLB I had to knock him down the rung a few pegs more than others I don't think that's unreasonable at this point.

Betterread
06-09-2008, 11:07 PM
1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Valaika
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Juan Francisco
6. Matt Maloney
7. Zach Stewart
8. Stubbs
9. Mesoraco
10. Roenicke
Next 10 - no particular order -
Sean Watson, Cumberland, Lotzkar, Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Jordan Smith, Danny Dorn

I really want to believe that Travis Wood will be a legitimate ML Lefty starter, but he just does not have a feel for a breaking pitch and his fastball will never again reach 94 - I think the Reds hurt his velocity by "smoothing out" his delivery. Why do so many young guys lose velocity once they hit the Reds' developmental team? The Reds just don't seem to have developmental staff that can sustain and augment fastball velocity.

Kc61
06-10-2008, 12:55 AM
[QUOTE=RedlegJake;1661659]Daryl Thompson

Todd Frazier

Yonder Alonso

Travis Wood

Josh Roenicke

Matt Maloney

Chris Valaika

Drew Stubbs

Devin Mesoraco

Juan Francisco

Danny Herrerra

Sean Henry

Neftali Soto

Sean Cumberland

Zach Stewart

Danny Dorn

Juan Duran

Ramon Geronimo

Ben Jukich

Kyle Lotzkar

Sean Watson

Tonys Gutierrez

21 guys who get someone's eye as a top ten. [QUOTE]


I agree that this is an impressive list. But to me the place where this group will make a clear impact soon is in the bullpen.

From the right side in particular, there's Roenicke, Watson and Stewart, three power arms. Add this list to Cordero and Burton and the righty power bullpen situation looks great going forward. From the left side, not quite as impressive, but add Herrera to Bray with hopefully Viola getting back on track, there's some potential there too.

Then there's Geronimo and Fisher and any starter who gets converted to the pen and you have quite a list. (Wouldn't be shocked if Maloney pitched middle relief to ease him into the major leagues.)

dougdirt
06-10-2008, 01:14 AM
1. Alonso
2. Frazier
3. Valaika
4. Daryl Thompson
5. Juan Francisco
6. Matt Maloney
7. Zach Stewart
8. Stubbs
9. Mesoraco
10. Roenicke
Next 10 - no particular order -
Sean Watson, Cumberland, Lotzkar, Ravin, Neftali Soto, Juan Duran, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Jordan Smith, Danny Dorn

I really want to believe that Travis Wood will be a legitimate ML Lefty starter, but he just does not have a feel for a breaking pitch and his fastball will never again reach 94 - I think the Reds hurt his velocity by "smoothing out" his delivery. Why do so many young guys lose velocity once they hit the Reds' developmental team? The Reds just don't seem to have developmental staff that can sustain and augment fastball velocity.

You don't think Travis Wood is one of the Reds 20 best prospects?

reds44
06-10-2008, 01:34 AM
Certainly we need to see it over a longer period of time, but I am just saying that for his age/league, he is more than holding his own.
And he's a catcher. A catcher who can hit (asssuming he can play defense) is much more valuable than a 1st baseman who rakes.

Tommyjohn25
06-10-2008, 09:23 AM
Maybe this belongs in another thread, but I have a quick question. What is the timetable for Duran to get started in the organization?

reds44
06-10-2008, 11:17 AM
Maybe this belongs in another thread, but I have a quick question. What is the timetable for Duran to get started in the organization?
I remember reading something earlier in the year that he could play in Billings or for the GCL Reds this year.

Mario-Rijo
06-10-2008, 11:30 AM
And he's a catcher. A catcher who can hit (asssuming he can play defense) is much more valuable than a 1st baseman who rakes.

Well that goes without saying if he does indeed continue to hit, I have no specific reason to think that he won't personally. However If you look at the long laundry list of 1st round catchers that did neither in a major league uniform you get what I'm saying.

Betterread
06-10-2008, 02:26 PM
You don't think Travis Wood is one of the Reds 20 best prospects?

He is for this moment (I meant to list Wood. I listed Jordan Smith twice by mistake in the 10-20 range)- but as soon as he gets hurt again (which I don't wish for) which is predictable, given his delivery and age.

He and Dorn are tough for me to project. Wood because his breaking ball is so poor, and Dorn because he hasn't shown what position he can play ML defense at. Wood's changeup is of such high quality that he could easily overcome the faults I find with him, and I hope he does make it.

11larkin11
06-10-2008, 02:28 PM
He is for this moment - but as soon as he gets hurt again (which I don't wish for) which is predictable, given his delivery and age.

He and Dorn are tough for me to project. Wood because his breaking ball is so poor, and Dorn because he hasn't shown what position he can play ML defense at. Wood's changeup is of such high quality that he could easily overcome the faults I find with him, and I hope he does make it.


I would say that Volquez is doing pretty good without a very good breaking ball and a dynamic changeup. Sure, Volquez throws a little harder, but Wood isn't a soft thrower, plus he's lefty.

Betterread
06-10-2008, 02:42 PM
I would say that Volquez is doing pretty good without a very good breaking ball and a dynamic changeup. Sure, Volquez throws a little harder, but Wood isn't a soft thrower, plus he's lefty.

Volquez is fantastic. His current domination at the Major league level was not even equalled by Wood in his meteoric rookie league campaign.
And Volquez' fastball is in a different class than Wood - last year when Wood was consistently mid-80s - that is a below average ML fastball. This year, by all accounts the velocity is high 80s and touching 90. That is ML average for a lefty - while Volquez is in the mid-90s - which is a plus fastball. He's also a lot bigger (weight) and stronger guy than Wood. Wood's 21 so he might grow, but his projection is murky because he's not going to get that much taller so where's he going to put the weight?
Bottom line - you find them similiar pitchers but I don't. Maybe that will change as Wood continues to succeed.
I give you credit for finding similiarities between Wood and a MLer - I like to do that with prospects. I have tried with Wood and I just can't find a ML pitcher that he reminds me of.

Kc61
06-10-2008, 02:51 PM
Volquez is fantastic. His current domination at the Major league level was not even equalled by Wood in his meteoric rookie league campaign.
And Volquez' fastball is in a different class than Wood - last year when Wood was consistently mid-80s - that is a below average ML fastball. This year, by all accounts the velocity is high 80s and touching 90. That is ML average for a lefty - while Volquez is in the mid-90s - which is a plus fastball. He's also a lot bigger (weight) and stronger guy than Wood. Wood's 21 so he might grow, but his projection is murky because he's not going to get that much taller so where's he going to put the weight?
Bottom line - you find them similiar pitchers but I don't.

I've seen other rankings that don't consider Wood that high.

But it really doesn't matter. The best post was the one (Redleg Jake I think) who just listed 20 or more prospects who have shown up on this thread. The order is unimportant.

Unlike past years, there is no shining star on the farm. (Alonso could be but he's not signed and hasn't played an inning of pro ball.) The strength of the organization is now in the depth of prospects, several of whom could emerge into top prospects.

So people can wildly disagree as to the placement of guys on the lists; the important thing is to continue to stockpile good talented prospects. Some will inevitably emerge.

11larkin11
06-10-2008, 02:58 PM
Volquez is fantastic. His current domination at the Major league level was not even equalled by Wood in his meteoric rookie league campaign.
And Volquez' fastball is in a different class than Wood - last year when Wood was consistently mid-80s - that is a below average ML fastball. This year, by all accounts the velocity is high 80s and touching 90. That is ML average for a lefty - while Volquez is in the mid-90s - which is a plus fastball. He's also a lot bigger (weight) and stronger guy than Wood. Wood's 21 so he might grow, but his projection is murky because he's not going to get that much taller so where's he going to put the weight?
Bottom line - you find them similiar pitchers but I don't. Maybe that will change as Wood continues to succeed.
I give you credit for finding similiarities between Wood and a MLer - I like to do that with prospects. I have tried with Wood and I just can't find a ML pitcher that he reminds me of.

I can agree with you now due to the reasons you listed above, I was just stating that a lack of a breaking ball isn't a reason to drop a guy if he has an outstanding changeup.

dougdirt
06-10-2008, 05:21 PM
He is for this moment (I meant to list Wood. I listed Jordan Smith twice by mistake in the 10-20 range)- but as soon as he gets hurt again (which I don't wish for) which is predictable, given his delivery and age.
Nothing about his mechanics are something to be concerned with. His size is one thing, but his mechanics are fine. As for his age, it didn't stop you from worry about Daryl Thompson who already has a MAJOR surgery under his belt.



He and Dorn are tough for me to project. Wood because his breaking ball is so poor, and Dorn because he hasn't shown what position he can play ML defense at. Wood's changeup is of such high quality that he could easily overcome the faults I find with him, and I hope he does make it.

Travis has a decent breaking ball at times. Its still rough at times, but he is throwing a cutter, a fastball, a change up and the curve. The fact that his curve is below par sometimes isn't a huge dent at least in my eyes.



And Volquez' fastball is in a different class than Wood - last year when Wood was consistently mid-80s - that is a below average ML fastball. This year, by all accounts the velocity is high 80s and touching 90. That is ML average for a lefty - while Volquez is in the mid-90s - which is a plus fastball. He's also a lot bigger (weight) and stronger guy than Wood. Wood's 21 so he might grow, but his projection is murky because he's not going to get that much taller so where's he going to put the weight?
Of course that was last year. This year Travis is working 88-92 MPH with his fastball and 85-88 with his cutter. For a lefty, that is plenty fast. Not sure where you got your scouting report on Wood's velocity, but its not anything I am hearing except for in that 1 game that Saberscouting was at that began at 1030 in the morning. I have also been told his cutter is a legit major league pitch right now. Put that with his change and his fastball and I am not worried about his stuff. Even if the curve remains inconsistent, he can succeed.

Betterread
06-10-2008, 05:55 PM
Of course that was last year. This year Travis is working 88-92 MPH with his fastball and 85-88 with his cutter. For a lefty, that is plenty fast. Not sure where you got your scouting report on Wood's velocity, but its not anything I am hearing except for in that 1 game that Saberscouting was at that began at 1030 in the morning. I have also been told his cutter is a legit major league pitch right now. Put that with his change and his fastball and I am not worried about his stuff. Even if the curve remains inconsistent, he can succeed.

Are you getting consistent scouting report readings on that velocity? If he is hitting 91 and 92 each game, then that's great. I have the sense that his velocity is very different in different games and therefore I don't have a read on Wood. I'll take your word on the fastball readings. Its great news.

On the curveball - I saw it last year and it was an ineffective pitch that he didn't have confidence in. Are you saying that you think its improved this year ?

dougdirt
06-10-2008, 06:02 PM
Are you getting consistent scouting report readings on that velocity? If he is hitting 91 and 92 each game, then that's great. I have the sense that his velocity is very different in different games and therefore I don't have a read on Wood. I'll take your word on the fastball readings. Its great news.

On the curveball - I saw it last year and it was an ineffective pitch that he didn't have confidence in. Are you saying that you think its improved this year ?
I have two reports (outside of the Saberscouting game) with him working 88-91 while in Sarasota and three from Chattanooga with him working 88-92 (not from the stadium gun either).

As for his curveball, its a hit and miss pitch for him. How often did you see him last year?

lollipopcurve
06-10-2008, 07:08 PM
Absent a solid breaking ball, Wood is going to need excellent command of his fastball, at the least. I don't know how much movement he has with it -- a little tail to contrast to his cutter would be nice.

Benihana
06-10-2008, 11:05 PM
Not that it matters much because I certainly don't put much stock into them, but BA thinks that Alonso immediately becomes #1 in the system, followed by Stubbs and Frazier.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/266307.html

Regardless, replace Stubbs with Thompson and those are the big three in the system to watch for now.

dougdirt
06-11-2008, 01:41 AM
Not that it matters much because I certainly don't put much stock into them, but BA thinks that Alonso immediately becomes #1 in the system, followed by Stubbs and Frazier.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/ask-ba/2008/266307.html

Regardless, replace Stubbs with Thompson and those are the big three in the system to watch for now.
Nah, I think BA had it right. Alonso, Stubbs and Frazier are the top 3 and in that order.

Betterread
06-11-2008, 01:36 PM
As for his curveball, its a hit and miss pitch for him. How often did you see him last year?

Admittedly only a few times, and only once in a competitive game. You have to see a player in person, but how do you know if what you saw was representative? This is a bigger challenge for minor leaguers.

dougdirt
06-11-2008, 02:17 PM
Admittedly only a few times, and only once in a competitive game. You have to see a player in person, but how do you know if what you saw was representative? This is a bigger challenge for minor leaguers.

Its not really what I saw, but what scouts saw.