Where are the Reds Going?

[AdamDunn]

This is a useless rant from a pretty uneducated baseball fan.

I was reading on a blog that many scouts were very surprised about the Reds drafting Alonso. They say he can't play third and he's is probably best served as a 3rd baseman. I look at the guy and he looks unorthodox and very unathletic. It's pretty clear that Alonso is going to cost a lot and was not the best player left in the draft. It is pretty clear that Smoak (great glove, switch-hitter, power to all fields) is the better player, both offensively and defensively. Gordon was probably the best player on the board (scouts were saying the White Sox had to be very happy Gordon was on the board). Putting $8 million dollars on this guy is a big mistake. That's first overall pick money (if that). That's Texiera money. He's clearly not that type of talent.

This shows me the Reds don't know what they're doing with the draft anymore.

It seems that Walt is going to have a shake up in the scouting department to get rid of the old staff and put in his own personal staff. With every two years getting a new GM, it seems that the Reds don't know what they're doing. It's surprising how well our minor league system is.

Trent points out that Alonso might have been drafted to be traded (As Walt does have a track record of trading prospects), but that's no way to run a small market organization. You have to build up from the bottom.

I recommend reading the following link. If the Reds don't build up right now, they're going to be the future's Kansas City Royals.
http://www.thelotd.com/goredlegs/blog/2008/06/06/draft_overview_the_ripple_over_yonder

[OnBaseMachine]

Florida. They play the Marlins tonight.

:)

[*BaseClogger*]

We talk about balancing your eyes with the stats... have you looked at them yet?

[AdamDunn]

We talk about balancing your eyes with the stats... have you looked at them yet?

Have you seen or heard about his defense? Have you seen or heard Smoak? Have you seen his wanted signing bonus?

[OnBaseMachine]

That guy you linked to is a nobody. It wouldn't surprise me if everything he wrote is made up on the spot.

[OnBaseMachine]

Have you seen or heard about his defense? Have you seen or heard Smoak? Have you seen his wanted signing bonus?

Baseball America says Alonso is an above average defender.

[thorn]

Anyone have Pujols scouting report when he got drafted. I heard many bad things on him as well if my memory is correct.

[AdamDunn]

Baseball America says Alonso is an above average defender.

He's at best an above average defender. Smoak has gold-glove potential and the general concensus better player.

http://www.collegebaseballprospects.net/2008/01/justin-smoak.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/06/04/mock.draft/index.html?eref=sircrc

I can't find it now, but Kevin Goldstein said he gold glove as well.

[HBP]

Baseball America says Alonso is an above average defender.

And so did the guy that drafted him, Buckley, and that's all that matters. Also, even if he is a sub par defender right now, why do people not think the coaches could improve his techniques? You don't just stop learning skills at any other job at the age of 21. Why would it be that way in baseball?

And no, Smoak was not clearly the better pick than Alonso. Alonso has been a projected top 10 pick for awhile now.

[lollipopcurve]

CTrent's a huge University of Georgia guy -- he wasn't going to take the selection of Alonso over GBeckham lying down.......

[AdamDunn]

CTrent's a huge University of Georgia guy -- he wasn't going to take the selection of Alonso over GBeckham lying down.......

Doesn't mean what he's saying isn't legit. My point is that Walt doesn't know how to use his minor league system well. His drafts point that out. He got Pujols, Drew, and a few guys of that nature. But he traded a lot of good players and lots of the picks under his tenure in St. Louis were busts. He goes for big potential that are really risky. That's what I feel about this pick.

[OnBaseMachine]

He's at best an above average defender. Smoak has gold-glove potential and the general concensus better player.

http://www.collegebaseballprospects.net/2008/01/justin-smoak.html
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/06/04/mock.draft/index.html?eref=sircrc

I can't find it now, but Kevin Goldstein said he gold glove as well.

The Reds obviously liked Alonso better than Smoak. That's fine with me. Plus Kevin Goldstein has also hinted that Smoak possibly has attitude problems. Maybe that factored into their decision. I don't know.

[lollipopcurve]

He goes for big potential that are really risky.

Alonso is anything but a high risk pick.

[dougdirt]

Doesn't mean what he's saying isn't legit. My point is that Walt doesn't know how to use his minor league system well. His drafts point that out. He got Pujols, Drew, and a few guys of that nature. But he traded a lot of good players and lots of the picks under his tenure in St. Louis were busts. He goes for big potential that are really risky. That's what I feel about this pick.

I guess my question to this is, is Jocketty a bad drafter or was the guy he hired in St Louis? Odds are Jocketty isn't the one making these decisions, Buckley and his scouts are. If thats the case, I have full faith in them.

[OnBaseMachine]

Guys, that is not Trent. It's Trent's blog but the guy who wrote the article goes by Mr. Redlegs. I believe he's one of Trent's buddies.

[OnBaseMachine]

Doesn't mean what he's saying isn't legit. My point is that Walt doesn't know how to use his minor league system well. His drafts point that out. He got Pujols, Drew, and a few guys of that nature. But he traded a lot of good players and lots of the picks under his tenure in St. Louis were busts. He goes for big potential that are really risky. That's what I feel about this pick.

Alonso isn't a risky pick.

[Hoosier Red]

Doesn't mean what he's saying isn't legit. My point is that Walt doesn't know how to use his minor league system well. His drafts point that out. He got Pujols, Drew, and a few guys of that nature. But he traded a lot of good players and lots of the picks under his tenure in St. Louis were busts. He goes for big potential that are really risky. That's what I feel about this pick.

Having the players to trade for major league talent is a second purpose of the farm system. Despite what you may have seen from Carl Lindner, baseball teams don't trade top major league talent so they can continue to suck indefinately.

[lollipopcurve]

Plus Kevin Goldstein has also hinted that Smoak possibly has attitude problems. Maybe that factored into their decision.

Wouldn't be surprised. People are consistently saying positive things about Alonso's "intangibles." To me, when you're trying to separate the top, top guys, makeup is real important.

[AdamDunn]

The Reds obviously liked Alonso better than Smoak. That's fine with me. Plus Kevin Goldstein has also hinted that Smoak possibly has attitude problems. Maybe that factored into their decision. I don't know.

$8 million dollars is a big price to pay to avoid attitude problems, especially when the guy is better than the one you draft. Also, Gordon Beckham was still around.

But I think you're missing the point. Not only did the Reds mess up their pick (which was very important since they didn't have a second round pick), but also we're changing philosophies every two years. No direction. That's what people have been saying for years. Personally, I don't think Walt knows how to draft or how to build a small market team. He doesn't know how to handle the minors properly.


Having the players to trade for major league talent is a second purpose of the farm system.

Not for a small market team that hasn't fielding a winning team in a decade.

[dougdirt]

$8 million dollars is a big price to pay to avoid attitude problems, especially when the guy is better than the one you draft. Also, Gordon Beckham was still around.

But I think you're missing the point. Not only did the Reds mess up their pick (which was very important since they didn't have a second round pick), but also we're changing philosophies every two years. No direction. That's what people have been saying for years. Personally, I don't think Walt knows how to draft or how to build a small market team. He doesn't know how to handle the minors properly.
Lets note that 8 million is an asking price and its not likely he gets it. Heck, Buster Posey was asking 12 million. If he gets half of that I would be surprised.

I also love that before ANYONE has stepped on the field as a pro or even signed a contract its a given that the Reds messed up the pick.

Where did the Reds change a philosophy?

[OnBaseMachine]

But I think you're missing the point. Not only did the Reds mess up their pick (which was very important since they didn't have a second round pick)

That's your opinion.

[jmcclain19]

Who floated the $8mil price tag?

It's mentioned in one article that Alonso possibly wants that amount and now it's gospel - that's 4 times the amount that his slot should get.

With all the rumors, conjecture, half truths and mis information out there about who's getting picked where and how much they want, I wouldn't believe one ounce of it until I hear something definitive from the Reds or from Alonso's agent.

[flyer85]

just have to hope they are right but it seems that one of Votto/Alonso will have to go in the next few years.

Trying to make 1Bs into LFs is a bad idea ... especially seeing how much folks around here complain about the OF defense.

[Hoosier Red]

Not for a small market team that hasn't fielding a winning team in a decade.

Sure it is. The best is to have a mixture. They have a number of young players on the roster(good and cheap.) But even with an $80 million roster there is still room to pay Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Griffey, and the DFA'd All-Stars somewhere around $40 million. As some high price talent leaves the organization, there is room in the budget for other players who can contribute but may cost more.

[bucksfan2]

That guy you linked to is a nobody. It wouldn't surprise me if everything he wrote is made up on the spot.

True he is about as reliable as me, you, or the next guy. He mentioned a few scout references and to be honest they aren't that far off base. They are basically the same concerns that have been voiced on RZ.

Once he signs he is a Red and I will root for him. I am not going to hold a grudge because "who we could of had" but at the same time you have to wonder whether this was the best pick in this slot. At the same time you can't help but notice that there are some serious reservations that you can have about this kid. You also have to wonder about the 40 man roster spot they freed up just prior to the draft.

You also have to wonder about the stability of the scouting department. Could the scouting department thought that Alonso was the closest one to the majors, but not the one with the highest ceiling? Could this have been a move of desparatoin a la Ryan Wagner?

[fearofpopvol1]

Did Smoak play in the Cape Cod League? I really think Alonso's performance there is what the Reds liked most and if so, can you blame them? Those are great numbers with wooden bats against great competition.

I've warmed up to the Alonso pick in the last 24 hours. Nobody knows right now if that was the best pick for the Reds. I do think Alonso was a smarter pick than Beckham is/was now, based on doing some extensive reading. I think Smoak and Crow are going to be the 2 that Reds fans will question most. Crow's videos look sick. The mechanics thing could be a problem, but his pitches looked very crisp with great movement. Smoak, being a switch hitter and a very good defender of course will bring into question whether the Reds made the right or wrong decision there.

[dougdirt]

Honest question.....
This team has graduated Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this year and could sport at least 5 or 6 more Top 100 prospects in baseball this year with Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Duran, Travis Wood, Daryl Thompson and Yonder Alonso.... don't they deserve at least some faith that they know what they are doing in the scouting and development department?

[11larkin11]

Honest question.....
This team has graduated Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this year and could sport at least 5 or 6 more Top 100 prospects in baseball this year with Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Duran, Travis Wood, Daryl Thompson and Yonder Alonso.... don't they deserve at least some faith that they know what they are doing in the scouting and development department?

Nah. RZers know more than them;)

[AdamDunn]

Lets note that 8 million is an asking price and its not likely he gets it. Heck, Buster Posey was asking 12 million. If he gets half of that I would be surprised.

I also love that before ANYONE has stepped on the field as a pro or even signed a contract its a given that the Reds messed up the pick.

Where did the Reds change a philosophy?

I say unless they're a solid for sure (as sure as a prospect can be that is), they don't deserve $8 million. I hope he gets less than half of that. He surely doesn't deserve to have the highest signing bonus in Reds history.

You're right. He might become a star. I argue that there were two players that were clearly better picks. Smoak and Gordon. My uneducated opinion (strong as it is) is that he won't.


Who floated the $8mil price tag?

It's mentioned in one article that Alonso possibly wants that amount and now it's gospel - that's 4 times the amount that his slot should get.

With all the rumors, conjecture, half truths and mis information out there about who's getting picked where and how much they want, I wouldn't believe one ounce of it until I hear something definitive from the Reds or from Alonso's agent.

I hope you're right. When he was asked about the $8 million price tag though, he didnt deny it. He just said he wasn't ready to talk about it.

[AdamDunn]

Honest question.....
This team has graduated Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this year and could sport at least 5 or 6 more Top 100 prospects in baseball this year with Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Duran, Travis Wood, Daryl Thompson and Yonder Alonso.... don't they deserve at least some faith that they know what they are doing in the scouting and development department?

Joey Votto - Jim Bowden (not that he was good or anything)
Jay Bruce - Dan O'Brien (with the scouting of Brian Wilson)

etc.

Like I said, I'm surprised we've had such success in the development of players. We're lucky that two managers (Dan O'Brien and WK) both knew how to raise a minor league system (WK better than DanO, but w/e)

[dougdirt]

Joey Votto - Jim Bowden (not that he was good or anything)
Jay Bruce - Dan O'Brien (with the scouting of Brian Wilson)

etc.

Like I said, I'm surprised we've had such success in the development of players. We're lucky that two managers (Dan O'Brien and WK) both knew how to raise a minor league system (WK better than DanO, but w/e)

And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.

[redhawk61]

Joey Votto - Jim Bowden (not that he was good or anything)
Jay Bruce - Dan O'Brien (with the scouting of Brian Wilson)

etc.

Like I said, I'm surprised we've had such success in the development of players. We're lucky that two managers (Dan O'Brien and WK) both knew how to raise a minor league system (WK better than DanO, but w/e)

Votto didn't start to be successful till Krivsky's guys got a hold of him
Jay Bruce was just the BPA it was a no brainer. and the guy who drafted him, Terry Rynolds is still in the organization as the farm director.

All of your arguments are flawed. Just look at the minors and see what Buckly, Reynolds and company have done then come back to the thread

[redhawk61]

And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.

don't you just hate it when people think that once someone gets drafted, what you see is what you get and the coaches and development philosophy don't matter

I have full faith that as long as we have Buckley and Reynolds we will continue to have one of the top farms in the bigs

[AdamDunn]

And who developed Votto and Bruce? The guys running the show right now. My point still stands on firm ground.

Development is different from who got them. Sure Chris Buckley is in, but WK is out. This is just my theory, but I think WK had a big hand in the draft, at least in the first couple of rounds. If I remember correctly, Buckley was a big College draft guy in Toronto. Since he's been here, he hasn't drafted a college player in the first round.

Sure, the development guys definally get credit, and if my theory is wrong, so do the draft guys. But I think it's wrong to say, "They've done a good job recently. So I'm just going to believe in them." There are so many things that I think send out warning signals.

1) Gordon was on the board
2) By general consensus, Smoak was the better pick
3) Rumor (if not truth) is that Alonso wants a big signing bonus (if not $8 million)

[IslandRed]

It's pretty clear that Alonso is going to cost a lot and was not the best player left in the draft. It is pretty clear that Smoak (great glove, switch-hitter, power to all fields) is the better player, both offensively and defensively.

As I posted in another thread, I'll grant the defense argument, and I love switch-hitters. But it's not even remotely clear that Smoak is or will be a better hitter. Alonso has what was called the best plate approach in the draft, he has terrific power now with plenty of room to improve, has proven he can hit with wood, and his performance record concedes nothing to Smoak. I don't have any problem with choosing him over Smoak.

I would have chosen Gordon Beckham myself. But again, to be THAT SURE the Reds made a mistake, you're putting an awful lot of faith in the opinions of various pundits and prognosticators, none of whom has earned the right to have his opinion considered holy writ.

[redhawk61]

Development is different from who got them. Sure Chris Buckley is in, but WK is out. This is just my theory, but I think WK had a big hand in the draft, at least in the first couple of rounds. If I remember correctly, Buckley was a big College draft guy in Toronto. Since he's been here, he hasn't drafted a college player in the first round.


I'm pretty sure he drafted Stubbs.....:rolleyes:

[AdamDunn]

As I posted in another thread, I'll grant the defense argument, and I love switch-hitters. But it's not even remotely clear that Smoak is or will be a better hitter. Alonso has what was called the best plate approach in the draft, he has terrific power now with plenty of room to improve, has proven he can hit with wood, and his performance record concedes nothing to Smoak. I don't have any problem with choosing him over Smoak.

I would have chosen Gordon Beckham myself. But again, to be THAT SURE the Reds made a mistake, you're putting an awful lot of faith in the opinions of various pundits and prognosticators, none of whom has earned the right to have his opinion considered holy writ.

You're right, it's awfully strong. But that's how I feel. That's the inherit problem with arguing about the draft. You never know until they hit the field in the minors. I'm just not sold that 1) he'll be worth the 7th pick and 2) that Smoak was the better player both offensively and defensively.


I'm pretty sure he drafted Stubbs.....:rolleyes:

Good call. Forget that sometimes since Stubbs is still in the minors. usually someone drafted 8th and is in college are put on the fast track.

Just to make it clear, despite the strong stance, I'm not automatically writing off Alonso as a bust before he hits the field. I just don't like him a player and think the Reds could have done much better than Alonso.

[bucksfan2]

Honest question.....
This team has graduated Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto this year and could sport at least 5 or 6 more Top 100 prospects in baseball this year with Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Juan Duran, Travis Wood, Daryl Thompson and Yonder Alonso.... don't they deserve at least some faith that they know what they are doing in the scouting and development department?

Honest reply....

I respect and appreciate your work on the reds minor leauges. I also realize that the Reds scouting department has done one heck of a job in turning around the minor league system. But there are several questions that surround this pick.

-This was a WK scouting department who made this pick. You have to wonder how long they will be there and if they made the pick that would hit the majors the quickest and not the best pick for the organization.

-Them clearing a spot on the 40 man roster right before the draft speaks to them offering Alonso a major leauge contract. That said if they thought that he would be in the majors soon why would they pick Alonso?

-He is a left handed hitting 1b. The reds already have two left handed hitting 1b playing every day in Dunn and Votto. Was this pick made in light of a future Dunn decisions? I would lean towards no but if they cleared a spot on the 40 man and think he could be in the majors soon it would be counterproductive to sign Dunn to a 4-5 year deal.

-I hope he develops into a 30-40 HR guy and doesn't develop into a Sean Casey type player. I question the pick because you have Beckham sitting right behind who from all reports is a better than average defender at a SS and people liken him to Khalil Greene. I take a Khalil Greene type over a Casey type any day of the week.

-The 1b only bothers me with the 7th pick in the draft. Other than a pitcher I would have prefered the reds to draft a player who had more options. When/if Alonso is ready to be called up to the bigs he will force the organization to make a move. This is different than the Jay Bruce situation because even though Bruce is a RF he is able to play 3 different positions. A guy like Bruce can come up and get his feet wet when "his position" isn't open. A guy like Alonso will force a decision to be made. For me it all comes down to getting your best 8 players on the field at the same time. If a certain player has to play out of position for a while then that is ok. But I don't want an everday player having to switch positions in the middle of the season.

[Grande Donkey]

What kind of stats did Smoak put up in the Cape Cod league? I bet Alonso out hit him by quite a bit.

[Joseph]

I find it hard to believe that so many are willing to say he's a great pick while saying others are in err for saying he's a bad pick.

Just because my Reds drafted him doesn't mean I am suddenly a fan. He can prove me wrong, I hope he does, but as of this moment I think it was the wrong pick to make and I won't drink the kool-aid just because the Reds drafted him.

[dougdirt]

I find it hard to believe that so many are willing to say he's a great pick while saying others are in err for saying he's a bad pick.


It is Redszone. You either love or hate someone on this board. You have been around long enough to know that ;)

[Joseph]

It is Redszone. You either love or hate someone on this board. You have been around long enough to know that ;)

Good point. :)

[Falls City Beer]

I like masters of one; not jacks of all trades.

[757690]

I say unless they're a solid for sure (as sure as a prospect can be that is), they don't deserve $8 million. I hope he gets less than half of that. He surely doesn't deserve to have the highest signing bonus in Reds history.

You're right. He might become a star. I argue that there were two players that were clearly better picks. Smoak and Gordon. My uneducated opinion (strong as it is) is that he won't.


There are no such thing as "clearly better picks" at the #7 pick in any draft, and that was especially true in this draft. The MLB draft is a crap shoot. Just look at the past drafts results. Heck, Corey Patterson was a #3 pick, and everyone was raving about what a great pick the Cubs made when they drafted him.


I am not an expert on amateur talent, so I have no opinion on who the Reds should have drafted, but I read every draft scouting report and every mock draft I could find, and the only thing that was clear was that there was no consensus on who the Reds should have picked, and there was no consensus over who was better among the three you mentioned.

What I read was that Beckham was a great all around baseball player with great instincts, but there was doubt about his bat, and whether he could stay at SS. Ceiling, he was a Khalil Greene type, floor he was a Bobby Crosby or Jeff Keppinger type. He was picked by one scout as the most over-rated player in the top 10.

What I read about Smoak was that he had great power, and is a very advanced hitter for being an amateur. He has not hit with a wooden bat, but no one thinks that will be a problem. He has a solid if unimpressive glove at first, but that is the only position he can play. He has had problems with breaking balls, and did not perform well for Team USA, which has caused some concern for scouts. He also had not lead on about his contract demands, which has scared some organizations. The fear is that he could end up asking for a ton of money. Ceiling he is Teixeira, floor he is Nick Johnson.

What I read about Alonso is that he was the most advanced bat in the draft, a great eye, great approach to hitting, but needed to pull the ball for power more. What made his stock rise was what he did in the Cape Cod league, a wooden bat league. He hit .338 with a .468 OBP and a .497 SLG. With a wooden bat. Baseball America ranked him the second best prospect in that league. They ranked Beckham 12th best. His glove was rated about equal to Smoak, maybe a little worse, decent but not outstanding, and 1B is the only position he can play. Ceiling he is Jim Thome, floor he is Sean Casey.

So basically, it is not clear who the best prospect was amongst those three, and we all will just have to wait a year or two to even begin to know who was.

[Oxilon]

just have to hope they are right but it seems that one of Votto/Alonso will have to go in the next few years.

Trying to make 1Bs into LFs is a bad idea ... especially seeing how much folks around here complain about the OF defense.

Nope, if anything, Dunn's a goner. Votto will be moved to left field (hell, he played it last season for the Reds at times) and Alfonso will be the 1B.

However, what's the timetable on Alfonso? Could he be a September call up ala Ryan Zimmerman or should we expect to wait a year or two?

[AdamDunn]

There are no such thing as "clearly better picks" at the #7 pick in any draft, and that was especially true in this draft. The MLB draft is a crap shoot. Just look at the past drafts results. Heck, Corey Patterson was a #3 pick, and everyone was raving about what a great pick the Cubs made when they drafted him...

So basically, it is not clear who the best prospect was amongst those three, and we all will just have to wait a year or two to even begin to know who was.

I like what you say. I'm not saying that Smoak and Beckham are clearly better players. As mentioned, you never know what's going to happen with prospects. Smoak and Beckham have a very real possibility of being busts.

But I'm saying they would have been better picks in terms of ceiling and money.

[OnBaseMachine]

If Alonso is signed to a major league contract then look for him to be called up this September. That's usually one of the agreements in the deal.

[dougdirt]

I like what you say. I'm not saying that Smoak and Beckham are clearly better players. As mentioned, you never know what's going to happen with prospects. Smoak and Beckham have a very real possibility of being busts.

But I'm saying they would have been better picks in terms of ceiling and money.

Yet you have no clue what any of them are signing for. Smoak didn't even float a number out there and that scared teams. Maybe he wants a MLB deal and 8 million? BTW, MLB deals the bonus's aren't always paid in 1 year. So lets say someone gets an 8 million dollar bonus on a MLB deal, that could be split up over 2-3 years. Not saying it will happen, just that it can.

[redhawk61]

If Alonso is signed to a major league contract then look for him to be called up this September. That's usually one of the agreements in the deal.

he is the one guy in this draft who could do so. His advanced plate discipline should allow him to mow through the minors.

[redhawk61]

Also the more and more I look at Yonder and look at his tools and numbers he puts up, he really really reminds me of a left handed hitting Albert Pujouls, low K's, high BB's ,high average, plenty of power, should have a .400+OBP at the ML level.:eek:

[Mario-Rijo]

I think it's important given this discussion to note a few things. #1 being that although some prospects look good and some not necc. so good in this current regimes (sans Jocketty) time here none they have drafted have passed AA except Roenicke. Yes they have proven to be fair developers of talent but not necc. moreso.

What I see is a group of guys who have proven that they won't sidetrack the development of a player and that they do stress better fundamentals than previous regimes. But they haven't proven to be able to develop a raw guy and except for small sample sizes haven't yet drafted a single player who even resembles a major league impact player. With the only exceptions of Todd Frazier (I could probably get one right if I had 3 1st's also) who looks solid and Roenicke (If he can manage some control). Everyone else has their question marks, though it is still too early to say for sure.

Drew Stubbs A+
Sean Watson AA
Chris Valaika AA
Justin Reed A-
Josh Ravin A-

Devin Mesoraco A-
Todd Frazier AA
Kyle Lotzkar RK
Zach Cozart A-
Scott Carroll A+
Neftali Soto RK

Granted and I'll say it again it's a little too soon for this argument to be sure but this F.O. is not and should not be beyond reproach. Trust is given when trust is earned and although I trust them not to screw up royally I don't yet think they are the cat's meow.

[OnBaseMachine]

I think it's important given this discussion to note a few things. #1 being that although some prospects look good and some not necc. so good in this current regimes (sans Jocketty) time here none they have drafted have passed AA except Roenicke. Yes they have proven to be fair developers of talent but not necc. moreso.

Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Josh Roenicke, Derrik Lutz, and Danny Dorn have all reach AA since being drafted in 2006. Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey could soon join them. There may not be a superstar in there but it has the makings of producing a couple starting position players, a stud reliever, and some solid depth for the bench which the Reds have lacked these past few years.

The 2007 draft is also looking strong at this point. Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier are both performing well. Kyle Lotzkar was terrific between the GCL and Pioneer League last season. Scott Carroll has already reach High-A and could be a decent reliever down the road. Neftali Soto had a great debut last year and could be a steal in the third round. Evan Hildenbrandt hasn't pitched yet but he's got a good arm. Brandon Waring is hitting well in the MWL. There's a couple relievers drafted in the late rounds who are pitching well in Dayton.

I think the previous regime did a fine job with the draft. Having seven players with potentially two more reaching AA within two years of getting drafted is pretty good IMO.

[Mario-Rijo]

Sean Watson, Chris Valaika, Jordan Smith, Justin Turner, Josh Roenicke, Derrik Lutz, and Danny Dorn have all reach AA since being drafted in 2006. Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey could soon join them. There may not be a superstar in there but it has the makings of producing a couple starting position players, a stud reliever, and some solid depth for the bench which the Reds have lacked these past few years.

The 2007 draft is also looking strong at this point. Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier are both performing well. Kyle Lotzkar was terrific between the GCL and Pioneer League last season. Scott Carroll has already reach High-A and could be a decent reliever down the road. Neftali Soto had a great debut last year and could be a steal in the third round. Evan Hildenbrandt hasn't pitched yet but he's got a good arm. Brandon Waring is hitting well in the MWL. There's a couple relievers drafted in the late rounds who are pitching well in Dayton.

I think the previous regime did a fine job with the draft. Having seven players with potentially two more reaching AA within two years of getting drafted is pretty good IMO.

Maybe I'm just greedy but I wanna Votto/Bruce type every year.

I think the Stubbs choice alone gives alot of people the right to wonder if perhaps Alonso was the right choice. I ain't saying I don't like Stubbs I have been one of his strongest supporters all along but it was certainly a very questionable selection.

[OnBaseMachine]

Maybe I'm just greedy but I wanna Votto/Bruce type every year.

I think the Stubbs choice alone gives alot of people the right to wonder if perhaps Alonso was the right choice. I ain't saying I don't like Stubbs I have been one of his strongest supporters all along but it was certainly a very questionable selection.

You're lucky to get a Jay Bruce every decade or 15 years. Those types of players don't come along very often. Todd Frazier is a guy who could project as a right handed Votto type. A .300 average type hitter with great plate discipline and .380+ OBP skills with 25-30 homerun power. Even those types of prospects are hard to find.

[Mario-Rijo]

You're lucky to get a Jay Bruce every decade or 15 years. Those types of players don't come along very often. Todd Frazier is a guy who could project as a right handed Votto type. A .300 average type hitter with great plate discipline and .380+ OBP skills with 25-30 homerun power. Even those types of prospects are hard to find.

Yeah I know but what is easy to see is these Red's don't have an all-around SS prospect to speak of. And from what I have read the only real question about Beckham's ability is his hands and that is it. According to this article which really highlights the pro's and cons well. He has one major con and that may be his hands which IMO is worth the risk. If his hands are terrible I can see why they passed if they are just questionable I don't know how they could pass.

BA:


8. Chicago White Sox
Gordon Beckham, ss, Georgia
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 185. Age: 21.


Scouting Report


After he went undrafted out of high school, Beckham has improved as much as any player during his three years in college. He started from his freshman season at Georgia, and hit 12 home runs his first season to help the Bulldogs in the College World Series and land on BA's Freshman All-American team. His batting average and power numbers have increased each year since. He won the Cape Cod League home run title last summer, and has shown it was no fluke by hitting 22 homes so far this spring. He has been among the Division I leaders in batting, home runs and slugging percentage all season. At the plate, Beckham is a home run threat to all fields. He has powerful forearms and snap in his wrists that lead to his above-average bat speed. After being known as a hacker early in his college career he is now regarded as a professional hitter. He makes good contact and consistently squares up balls and uses the whole field. While no one questions his ability to hit, scouts are split on whether Beckham has the hands to stay at shortstop. He has the instincts and is athletic with enough range and arm strength to stick at the premium position.

[Mario-Rijo]

However I am starting to see why they chose Alonso over Smoak. Bottom line Alonso doesn't swing at nearly as much crap as Smoak. And that difference is big enough to account for Smoak switch hitting and slightly better defense. And Crow too me is just too risky. So it comes down to Beckham vs Alonso and perhaps the Red's scouts felt Beckham lack of ideal hands makes him an OF which lessens his bat alot considering I doubt he has CF speed/range. Which if that's the case then Alonso is the BPA however if Gordon turns out to be an above avg all-around SS I am going to be hott!

[redhawk61]

Welcome to the Alonso side. While I think Beckham will be solid, with Alonso's plate discipline and all other hitting skills I think his ceiling is much higher. Sure he could not reach up to his potential but, again b/c of the plate discpline, I still feel his floor is a lot higher than Beckham's. Beckham floor I see as being a utility guy while I see Alonso's floor as being an average starting 1b. So with the higher floor and ceiling its a no brainer, regardless of organizational need. As a side note as I mentioned earlier, Yonder's skills at the plate are very comparable to Albert Pujouls, low K's, High BB's, .400+ OBP, Hit for Average, with plenty of power, just from the left side. if Yonder he can continue what he does.......

[AdamDunn]

However I am starting to see why they chose Alonso over Smoak. Bottom line Alonso doesn't swing at nearly as much crap as Smoak. And that difference is big enough to account for Smoak switch hitting and slightly better defense. And Crow too me is just too risky. So it comes down to Beckham vs Alonso and perhaps the Red's scouts felt Beckham lack of ideal hands makes him an OF which lessens his bat alot considering I doubt he has CF speed/range. Which if that's the case then Alonso is the BPA however if Gordon turns out to be an above avg all-around SS I am going to be hott!

Plate discipline can be taught. Switch-hitting and gold-glove fielding abilities, not so much.

[Hondo]

Ok, I just want someone to compare Smoak and Yonder... Player to Player...

The only thing I cannot figure out is why 4 other teams besides the Reds at #7 passed on him to let him go #12 to the Rangers...

There has to be something or surely the White Sox or someone would have drafted him 8-11...

All I have read is that Smoak is the better prospect of the 2... Ranking 3rd behind, Tim Beckham and Alvarez... So why did the Royals pass him at #3 all the way until the Rangers nabbed him at 12... Is there something that we just don't know? Cause it makes little sense to me.

[dougdirt]

Plate discipline can be taught. Switch-hitting and gold-glove fielding abilities, not so much.

Plate discipline being taught is a lot easier said than done. You don't often see guys make big strides in that department because its such a difficult thing to teach.

[Grande Donkey]

I would still like to know what Smoak's numbers were in the Cape Cod League. Maybe he underwhelmed scouts with a wooden bat.

[dougdirt]

I would still like to know what Smoak's numbers were in the Cape Cod League. Maybe he underwhelmed scouts with a wooden bat.

He hit 11 HR there after his freshman year. He did disappoint for Team USA however.

[AdamDunn]

Plate discipline being taught is a lot easier said than done. You don't often see guys make big strides in that department because its such a difficult thing to teach.

It's a lot easier to teach than defense and switch hitting. Plate discipline is completely mental and pitch recognition. Defense and switch hitting require athletic ability. Switch hitting requires a lot of muscle memory (especially switch hitting) which requires lots of time.

[Mario-Rijo]

Plate discipline can be taught. Switch-hitting and gold-glove fielding abilities, not so much.

That's absolutely false. Yes plate discipline can be improved (albeit not usually by much) and switch hitting cannot at least at this juncture and still be productive in the mean time. That said defense can also be improved. Now instincts are what they are and Smoak appears to have a slight edge in this dept. But is that worth the difference in their offensive game, I don't think so.

Yes Smoak has more power but he isn't likely to actually hit for more power unless he improves his approach.

The difference would be like Pujols and Dunn, yes Dunn is more powerful but doesn't hit for much more power than does Pujols and Pujols is more productive overall.

[redhawk61]

It's a lot easier to teach than defense and switch hitting. Plate discipline is completely mental and pitch recognition. Defense and switch hitting require athletic ability. Switch hitting requires a lot of muscle memory (especially switch hitting) which requires lots of time.

Yonder Alonso plate discipline can not be taught, if it could there would be nobody K'ing over 100 times a year. Yonder will end up being a guy who only K's 60-70 times in a year while walking 100 times, again go look at Pujoul's numbers who I think compare's favorably to what Yonder can be and go look at Texiera's numbers who people say Smoak reminds them of. While any team would want both of those guys, Albert his the far better hitter

[dougdirt]

It's a lot easier to teach than defense and switch hitting. Plate discipline is completely mental and pitch recognition. Defense and switch hitting require athletic ability. Switch hitting requires a lot of muscle memory (especially switch hitting) which requires lots of time.

What does switch hitting have to do with anything? Be a HITTER and its not going to matter if they bring in a lefty or righty to face you. Javy Valentin is a switch hitter and it doesn't do him much good. Albert Pujols isn't a switch hitter and he does just fine. As for defense, Alonso has fine defense.

From BA today:

The most dangerous slugger on one of the nation's top hitting college teams, Alonso has produced consistent offensive numbers for Miami in each of his three years. As a freshman he led the team with 69 RBIs, leading the Hurricanes to the College World Series. As a sophomore, he led the Atlantic Coast Conference with 18 home runs, and finished the season with a .376 batting average. A native of Cuba, Alonso came to America at age 9. He was drafted out of Coral Gables (Fla.) High in the 16th round by the Twins in 2005. Alonso has always hit for average and power, and he is considered one of the most professional hitters in this year's draft. Blessed with superior plate discipline, Alonso has a great strikeout-to-walk ratio and has an advanced approach. He swings lefthanded and has power to all fields, making consistent contact. In the field, Alonso is limited to first base but plays the position well. He is a below-average runner with adequate arm strength, but he should be an above-average defender. Alonso's professionalism and makeup are both strengths as well, making him a safe pick to reach the major leagues.

[757690]

ESPN just compared Alonso to Albert Pujols. Not sure how accurate that is, but it sure is nice to hear.

[redhawk61]

ESPN just compared Alonso to Albert Pujols. Not sure how accurate that is, but it sure is nice to hear.

how good am I I have been saying that all along

[Mario-Rijo]

how good am I I have been saying that all along

Where did you read it at? ;)

[Lockdwn11]

ESPN just compared Alonso to Albert Pujols. Not sure how accurate that is, but it sure is nice to hear.

They compared his body type to Pujols

[redhawk61]

Where did you read it at? ;)

They compared his body type to Pujols

in my mind

also look at the plate approach though

[757690]

They compared his body type to Pujols

Maybe I heard it wrong, or heard what I wanted to hear, but I thought they also said he had a similar hitting approach to Pujols. Anyway, if they said he sang Karaokee like Pujols, I'd be happy.

Oh, well, he struck out in the first inning. He sucks. Drafting him was a mistake.

[Lockdwn11]

Maybe I heard it wrong, or heard what I wanted to hear, but I thought they also said he had a similar hitting approach to Pujols. Anyway, if they said he sang Karaokee like Pujols, I'd be happy.

Oh, well, he struck out in the first inning. He sucks. Drafting him was a mistake.

They did say he did somethings like pujols but his main point was thier body types. I guess it's just a case of two people hearing the same thing but taking it two different ways .It happens alot here at the Redszone

[PuffyPig]

Quote from the Scouts View from TSN:

They rate Alonso ahead of Smoak.

"The guy from Miami is for real" the A.L scouting director says. "For me, Smoak is no sure thing."

Look , it's not like the Alonso pick came out of left field. The Reds obviously thought Alonso was better. No one poster here really knows for sure that that is not true. Alons's plate discipline is a huge plus. Not many players with that plate discipline fail. I can't name one.

[RedlegJake]

Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Some have blasted the Alonso pick, some (like me) love it. It sure makes for some interesting threads, though.

[Blitz Dorsey]

Anyone who says "plate discipline can be taught" probably hasn't played baseball. Or watched very much of it. IMO that is a natural ability.

[buckeyenut]

Look at the Reds at ML level. They have 2 solid vets and 3 stud young kids in their rotation. They have several more solid young kids who will compete for rotation spots over the next five years.

On the other hand, the ML offense is struggling to score runs and there looks to be few if any advanced hitting prospects in our system. Given that, why wouldn't you go for the most advanced bat? We need firepower. And there are always ways of making the positions work out at the ML level. That's why they have trades. You pick the stud bat and sort the rest out later if you need to.