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View Full Version : When Keppinger returns, what happens?



Wheelhouse
06-07-2008, 01:29 PM
I figure this will be a lively one...

RedFanAlways1966
06-07-2008, 01:48 PM
Hairston becomes the utilityman (ala Freel). Keppinger is the #1 SS. Hairston (like Freel) can play many positions (none at a great level) and is good for giving a starter a rest.

Hopefully Freel is traded.

mth123
06-07-2008, 01:53 PM
I'd probably look to deal EdE and play Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B (or Gonzalez at SS with Kepp at 3B) with the idea that Frazier, Valaika, etc are all on the way. But to do so, I would need either a long term answer at CF, C or SS in return or an impact starting pitcher. If a deal like that doesn't exist, I'd happily play EdE at 3B, with Kepp at SS and would work Hairston in as a supersub who plays a lot. Its possible that Hairston falls back to Earth hard so trading EdE would be more about who I could get while having reasonable in house alternatives to fill in than it would be wanting to move him just to make room.

Wheelhouse
06-07-2008, 01:57 PM
I'd probably look to deal EdE and play Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B (or Gonzalez at SS with Kepp at 3B) with the idea that Frazier, Valaika, etc are all on the way. But to do so, I would need either a long term answer at CF, C or SS in return or an impact starting pitcher. If a deal like that doesn't exist, I'd happily play EdE at 3B, with Kepp at SS and would work Hairston in as a supersub who plays a lot. Its possible that Hairston falls back to Earth hard so trading EdE would be more about who I could get while having reasonable in house alternatives to fill in than it would be wanting to move him just to make room.

I don't know if you'd get a long-term solution at a skill position for EdE unless long term means taking a AAA prospect there. However, there are teams out there that are starved for offense...

Will M
06-07-2008, 01:58 PM
I'd probably look to deal EdE and play Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B (or Gonzalez at SS with Kepp at 3B) with the idea that Frazier, Valaika, etc are all on the way. But to do so, I would need either a long term answer at CF, C or SS in return or an impact starting pitcher. If a deal like that doesn't exist, I'd happily play EdE at 3B, with Kepp at SS and would work Hairston in as a supersub who plays a lot. Its possible that Hairston falls back to Earth hard so trading EdE would be more about who I could get while having reasonable in house alternatives to fill in than it would be wanting to move him just to make room.

100% agree.

PuffyPig
06-07-2008, 02:02 PM
Hairston is likely an AAAA player on a hot steak. He's a pretty good utility player, but no way should he be getting AB's over EE.

mth123
06-07-2008, 02:12 PM
I don't know if you'd get a long-term solution at a skill position for EdE unless long term means taking a AAA prospect there. However, there are teams out there that are starved for offense...

You are probably right. EdE would probably just be the main serving in a deal like that. Maybe with a side of Maloney and a Belisle or a McBeth etc. as an extra topping.

Sea Ray
06-07-2008, 02:16 PM
I figure this will be a lively one...

Actually the poll shows people are not particularly divided on this one. I'm impressed that no one is saying Keppinger is a utility player anymore. I wanted him starting at SS when his role was discussed last summer and I was in the minority.

As for Hairston, let's see where his game takes him. I'd use him as a supersub when Kepp comes back and we'll see where he fits in. Longterm we may need him in the OF if we lose both Griff and Dunn next year

Will M
06-07-2008, 02:20 PM
Actually the poll shows people are not particularly divided on this one. I'm impressed that no one is saying Keppinger is a utility player anymore. I wanted him starting at SS when his role was discussed last summer and I was in the minority.

As for Hairston, let's see where his game takes him. I'd use him as a supersub when Kepp comes back and we'll see where he fits in. Longterm we may need him in the OF if we lose both Griff and Dunn next year

Hairston is my favorite Red right now but lets be realistic. He is a 32 yr old who has fought injuries for years. He is healthy and playing great but i wouldn't sign him to a LTC just yet. Lets see if he can stay healthy & keep playing well. I like him in the supersub role. He seems better with the glove and smarter than Freel.

fearofpopvol1
06-07-2008, 02:21 PM
Hairston is likely an AAAA player on a hot steak. He's a pretty good utility player, but no way should he be getting AB's over EE.

I think he's better than that. I mean, I don't think he's a regular starter, but he is definitely a major league backup kind of player.

And for some reason, this year, has continued to hit and hit and hit. Keep riding the hot bat.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 02:26 PM
Hairston will fall the way of Patterson and Bako. People often get fooled when a run of the mill player gets off to a hot start.

MartyFan
06-07-2008, 02:47 PM
Hairston becomes a super sub...

KronoRed
06-07-2008, 02:49 PM
Hairston will fall the way of Patterson and Bako. People often get fooled when a run of the mill player gets off to a hot start.

Happens every year around here it seems.

When Kepp comes back he should go back to SS, let Hairston run out his hot streak as the IF Freel.

RedsManRick
06-07-2008, 03:21 PM
I think Hairston will keep playing until his cumulative season numbers regress to his career numbers and Dusty has little choice. Hopefully Hairston steps in to the Freel role.

Patrick Bateman
06-07-2008, 03:54 PM
Hairston will fall the way of Patterson and Bako. People often get fooled when a run of the mill player gets off to a hot start.

Exactly. I am by means enamored by EE right now, and I don't view him as a long term 3rd basemen on this club when he begins to be expensive, but there is at least a decent level of skill, and upside to work with.

Hairston has a career worth of being an awful player, one that cannot be considered anything more than a routine back-up. Once the hot streak ends, Hairston will again be nothing more than a terrible every day option.... and would likely be the worst starting 3rd basemen in the majors.

Considering that I don't expect EE would bring a whole lot back in a trade, I fail to see why his return is going to make up for having a pathetic starting 3rd basemen. All it does is create a pretty major void in the short run.

jojo
06-07-2008, 04:22 PM
Hairston or Keppinger at short.....hmmmmmmmm...that debate needs one more option in the poll-trade for a shortstop.

KronoRed
06-07-2008, 04:26 PM
*cough*PhillipstoSS*cough*

Will M
06-07-2008, 04:33 PM
*cough*PhillipstoSS*cough*

I have yet to hear a good explanation of why Phillips isn't our SS other than:

1. krivsky didn't want him there

2. he is comfortable at 2B and gold glove caliber there so why move him

Kep's natural position is 2B. ( note Hairston's is also but he could still turn into a pumpkin ).

Reds1
06-07-2008, 04:33 PM
I don't think this is as contraversial as you think. Kepp back to SS and Hair supersub. Kepp will play some at 3rd too, but overall Hairston will become a defensive replacement in the OF and a start or two a week in the IF.

AmarilloRed
06-07-2008, 06:58 PM
Keppinger should make the move back to SS. He did OK at short until his injury.

The Baumer
06-07-2008, 07:23 PM
I see Hairston and Keppinger both splitting time at SS.

GAC
06-07-2008, 07:40 PM
Whden is Kepp scheduled to be at 100% and back?

Sea Ray
06-07-2008, 08:08 PM
Whden is Kepp scheduled to be at 100% and back?

This was in the local paper today:


Jeff Keppinger, who has a broken left knee cap, is in Sarasota, Fla. He ran the bases Friday with no problems and will slide today. That's a big test, because his injured leg is his drag leg.

If all goes well, he'll get some at-bats in extended spring training games Sunday and Monday.

Keppinger probably is a little bit ahead of Gonzalez.

"That's what the trainers tell me," Reds manager Dusty Baker said.

Both Keppinger and Gonzalez will go on rehabilitation assignments to get at-bats.

My guess is another two weeks

*BaseClogger*
06-07-2008, 10:24 PM
Kepp to SS. Hairston to super-sub.

Please learn to make your polls public... :)

Mario-Rijo
06-07-2008, 10:30 PM
I don't think it's really much of a question as far as what's available currently. Keppinger is the best current overall SS we have. However let's not kid ourselves Keppinger is no long term solution at SS. His range may be as bad as anyone I have ever seen there (probably even the Reds version of Aurilia) and his arm is about avg. But his bat will play somewhere everyday and his glove is pretty good and his overall baseball acumen is very good as well. I would consider playing him sparingly at 3rd (if EE were dealt) but his arm may not be good enough.

I say if Dunn isn't back next year (and no one is brought in) he would be an ok stop gap out there or would likely be an even better short term 1st sacker (although a little short) and go ahead with Votto to LF. His bat doesn't play with power but we have a 2B who somewhat makes up for that.

Hairston probably won't hit this well for ever but I am not convinced that he couldn't be a decent 2B for somebody. If you take away the past 2 seasons (when he played with a cracked rib) he has a .700+ OPS in his career, who's not a bad fielder (at 2B) and he's as an intelligent a ballplayer as there is. He's no All-Star but he can be an decent starting 2B. Just not here!

And Janish can be the answer longterm at SS as long as you have good offensive options at most all other positions. He's got all the tools defensively to be well above avg and his offense although w/o above avg speed or power does a good job of working the count and taking BB's and does all the little things well. He's capable of a .700 - .750 OPS and in his prime could OPS .800.

All that said Kepp is the best fit on our current roster (when he becomes healthy I mean) to play SS. But I have said it plenty recently and it bares repeating, I would rather keep EE (I think he is/can be very good overall). But if you are gonna deal him make it to the Angels in a deal for Willits and try to expand the deal to get Macier Izturis and you have 2 good defenders at CF and SS and 2 top of the lineup OBM's.

GAC
06-08-2008, 08:39 AM
Kepp will be back at SS. You don't lose your starting job due to injury. Hairston will return to the role he is best suited.... he's the new Farney.

Highlifeman21
06-08-2008, 09:53 AM
Hairston or Keppinger at short.....hmmmmmmmm...that debate needs one more option in the poll-trade for a shortstop.

What's wrong with Keppinger's bat @ SS?

Defensively he's probably average at best, but offensively he's a weapon @ SS.

Why do we need to trade for a SS?

jojo
06-08-2008, 10:11 AM
What's wrong with Keppinger's bat @ SS?

Defensively he's probably average at best, but offensively he's a weapon @ SS.

Why do we need to trade for a SS?

Sure if you believe Keppy is going to OPS over .800 on a consistent basis.

jojo
06-08-2008, 10:12 AM
Kepp will be back at SS. You don't lose your starting job due to injury.

Then what do you do when Gonzo gets back? :cool:

Highlifeman21
06-08-2008, 12:36 PM
Sure if you believe Keppy is going to OPS over .800 on a consistent basis.

I do believe Keppinger will continue to OPS at or above .800 on a consistent basis.

He puts plenty of balls in play, doesn't strike out much. Sure, his OBP will be AVG driven, but that's fine. He'll hit for .300, which leads me to believe he can continue to OPS at or North of .800.

Wheelhouse
06-08-2008, 12:42 PM
Kepp to SS. Hairston to super-sub.

Please learn to make your polls public... :)

Actually I don't know how, nor do I know what it means to make a poll "public." Please inform. :)

*BaseClogger*
06-08-2008, 01:29 PM
Actually I don't know how, nor do I know what it means to make a poll "public." Please inform. :)

On the page where you type in the question and options there is a check box that reads "make poll results publc". Click it. This allows us to see what option each poster chose...

*BaseClogger*
06-08-2008, 01:31 PM
I do believe Keppinger will continue to OPS at or above .800 on a consistent basis.

He puts plenty of balls in play, doesn't strike out much. Sure, his OBP will be AVG driven, but that's fine. He'll hit for .300, which leads me to believe he can continue to OPS at or North of .800.

I agree. There is nothing in his track record that tells me he can not continue to hit .315/.365/.435 at the ML level...

cincinnati chili
06-08-2008, 02:00 PM
Maybe it's an aberration, but did anyone realize that Keppinger had a HORRIBLE start against right handed pitching this year. The only reason his numbers look good is because he's been feasting off lefties.

Keppinger is a much better defender at SS than Hairston. The career numbers and this year's numbers both bear that out. Both are bad defenders, but Hairston as worse. Keppinger's defense at SS roughly means we save an extra run per 18 innings. Theoretically if Hairston keeps this up (I know, I know - he probably won't), Hairston's offense against right handed starters is significantly better and will more than make up for the defensive difference, enough that Hairston should continue to be the starter until he cools off.

Intangibles: Look at the difference in double plays and stolen bases. Hairston has really helped this time.

How bad are these guys' defense?: Keppinger would fall into the bottom quartile of SS's (approximately as bad a Derek Jeter), while Hairston is the worst shortstop in the major leagues. Again, until he cools off his bat, speed and intangibles are worth it.

Compare:

Hairston vs. right hand pitching in '08 .288/.321/.425

overall: 10 sb's 2 cs, grounded into ZERO double plays in 137 PA's (that is VERY good)

SS defense (3.59 range factors; .737 zone rating - these are pretty much in line w/career #s). They make him worse than any qualifying shortstop in the major leagues.

Keppinger vs. right-hand pitching in '08 .279/.296/.369

2 stolen bases, 1 cs, grounded into SEVEN doubled plays in 163 PA's (that is pretty bad)

SS defense: 3.57 range factor; .806 zone rating in 308 innings - these are a bit BELOW his career #s). He's about as good a defender as Derek Jeter.

range factor/zone ratings of qualifying shortstops:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9&sortColumn=rangeFactor&sortOrder=true&split=82&qualified=null&season=2008&seasonType=2

At this point, I doubt Freel will fetch you much of anything. No power. On base skills diminishing. Poor baserunner. Bonehead-mistake prone. Probably DFA material at this point.

GAC
06-08-2008, 10:00 PM
Then what do you do when Gonzo gets back? :cool:


He'll start. ;)

WVRedsFan
06-08-2008, 10:27 PM
At this point, I doubt Freel will fetch you much of anything. No power. On base skills diminishing. Poor baserunner. Bonehead-mistake prone. Probably DFA material at this point.

Horray to the one who signed him to that fat contract. :beerme:

The_jbh
06-08-2008, 11:03 PM
Freel is still valuable to this squad on the bench in my opinion. I think we continue to ride Hairston's hot streak and then Kep resumes his role as starting SS. Hairston can be another super sub with Freel.

red-in-la
06-08-2008, 11:39 PM
Nobody will like my idea......but the worst player (the one who should get bumped by Keppinger's return is JR.

I would play Kepp at SS, Hairston in CF and Bruce in RF......with JR getting the occassional start against the tough RH pitcher.

Freel could be DFA'ed anytime.

Playing Keppinger and Hairston along with Bruce gives the Reds more team speed then they have had in a long time.

So my line up is:

Hairston - CF
Keppinger - SS
Bruce - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Encarnacion - 3B
Dunn - LF
Bako/Ross - C

mth123
06-09-2008, 12:15 AM
Nobody will like my idea......but the worst player (the one who should get bumped by Keppinger's return is JR.

I would play Kepp at SS, Hairston in CF and Bruce in RF......with JR getting the occassional start against the tough RH pitcher.

Freel could be DFA'ed anytime.

Playing Keppinger and Hairston along with Bruce gives the Reds more team speed then they have had in a long time.

So my line up is:

Hairston - CF
Keppinger - SS
Bruce - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Encarnacion - 3B
Dunn - LF
Bako/Ross - C

I like your idea. Its what I would do as well. I just don't see it happening. FWIW, the team needs to come-up with some long term answers for CF and SS (as well as C and can always use another solid starter). A deal involving EdE and some minor leaguers might net that. I don't see a package headlined by Keppinger, Hairston, Freel or Griffey getting anything in retrun. Keppinger coupled bith Bailey might, but I'm really not in favpr of dealing Bailey,

AmarilloRed
06-09-2008, 12:49 AM
Nobody will like my idea......but the worst player (the one who should get bumped by Keppinger's return is JR.

I would play Kepp at SS, Hairston in CF and Bruce in RF......with JR getting the occassional start against the tough RH pitcher.

Freel could be DFA'ed anytime.

Playing Keppinger and Hairston along with Bruce gives the Reds more team speed then they have had in a long time.

So my line up is:

Hairston - CF
Keppinger - SS
Bruce - RF
Phillips - 2B
Votto - 1B
Encarnacion - 3B
Dunn - LF
Bako/Ross - C

You know that if Jr. is not here, Baker will start Patterson every single game. I like your idea, but I just don't think Baker will play either Keppinger or Hairston in the outfield if Patterson is available.

Reds1
06-09-2008, 01:05 AM
Not sure we can count on Hairston. If we are going for a playoff run I believe you'll need a Griffey in the mix to make that happen. Just my opinion. Not liking his defense right now, but hopefully the leg will heal and he'll be ok. He's been batting ok even with 600. Let's get that out of the way and see what happens. Taking him out of the line up and you just lose something. I don't like Dunn batting 7th in your line up red-in-la. However, I think your idea you think is not popular is probably more popular then my opinion of keeping Griffey out there. Doesn't matter we all know that's what it is no matter what we think. :)

mth123
06-09-2008, 10:55 AM
Not sure we can count on Hairston. If we are going for a playoff run I believe you'll need a Griffey in the mix to make that happen. Just my opinion. Not liking his defense right now, but hopefully the leg will heal and he'll be ok. He's been batting ok even with 600. Let's get that out of the way and see what happens. Taking him out of the line up and you just lose something. I don't like Dunn batting 7th in your line up red-in-la. However, I think your idea you think is not popular is probably more popular then my opinion of keeping Griffey out there. Doesn't matter we all know that's what it is no matter what we think. :)

I think you lose a ton of routine flyballs falling in for hits that even a 1.000 OPS can't make-up for. Here is hoping Griff's leg heals enough for some team to want him as a DH. He simply no longer is a credible option in the OF IMO.