PDA

View Full Version : Does the drafting of Alonso mean Dunn is a goner?



Will M
06-07-2008, 02:14 PM
Yonder Alonso is a lefty hitting offensive machine. From what I have read he can really only play 1B. He may be on a fast track to the bigs.

Adam Dunn is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He can only play LF.

Joey Votto is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He plays 1B. I know he played some LF in AAA. He likely would be ok in LF. The old adage is even my grandma can play LF. He cannot play RF.

Wait a minute. Isn't that 3 players for 2 positions. What gives?

Scenario A: Walt wants to resign Dunn and will give him whatever he wants.
Drafting Alonso makes no sense here. I guess Walt could trade one of the three once Alonso is ready but then why not just draft for need ( ie a lot of people thought we would go after a college SS ).

Scenario B: Walt wants to trade Dunn before the deadline. If he can't get value then he'll let him go for drafts picks this offseason. He'll sign a stopgap free agent to play LF in 2009 then move Votto to LF when Alonso is ready.
Walt has decided tying up so much money in Dunn isn't worth it.

Scenario C: Walt wants to hedge his options. He'd like Dunn back for a reasonable amount of money/years but won't go nuts. If Dunn leaves he wants a fall back option to hopefully replace his offense by 2010.

This has been going through my mind since we drafted Alonso.
Does anyone else have thoughts or opinions about this?

mth123
06-07-2008, 02:19 PM
Yonder Alonso is a lefty hitting offensive machine. From what I have read he can really only play 1B. He may be on a fast track to the bigs.

Adam Dunn is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He can only play LF.

Joey Votto is a lefty hitting offensive machine. He plays 1B. I know he played some LF in AAA. He likely would be ok in LF. The old adage is even my grandma can play LF. He cannot play RF.

Wait a minute. Isn't that 3 players for 2 positions. What gives?

Scenario A: Walt wants to resign Dunn and will give him whatever he wants.
Drafting Alonso makes no sense here. I guess Walt could trade one of the three once Alonso is ready but then why not just draft for need ( ie a lot of people thought we would go after a college SS ).

Scenario B: Walt wants to trade Dunn before the deadline. If he can't get value then he'll let him go for drafts picks this offseason. He'll sign a stopgap free agent to play LF in 2009 then move Votto to LF when Alonso is ready.
Walt has decided tying up so much money in Dunn isn't worth it.

Scenario C: Walt wants to hedge his options. He'd like Dunn back for a reasonable amount of money/years but won't go nuts. If Dunn leaves he wants a fall back option to hopefully replace his offense by 2010.

This has been going through my mind since we drafted Alonso.
Does anyone else have thoughts or opinions about this?


Scenario 4:

Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.

Will M
06-07-2008, 02:23 PM
Scenario 4:

Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.

1. do you think Votto can play RF?

2. if Votto is as good in RF as Dunn in LF that would be one bad defensive outfield. i hope walt realizes one of the reasons he won in St Louis was that the Cards played GREAT defense.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 02:24 PM
Scenario 4:

Dunn in LF, Bruce in CF with Votto in RF and Alonso at 1B. Defense would be no worse than today, though I'd prefer a better glove in CF with Bruce in RF. But boy that team should really be able to mash.

Except against LHPs.

fearofpopvol1
06-07-2008, 02:26 PM
What about the scenario that Dunn could be resigned and Votto moved? It doesn't seem likely, but it's definitely a possibility.

It's a lot to speculate. Alonso could have a career ending injury in rookie ball this summer. He could also suck in the minors. Hell, Corey Patterson was the 3rd overall pick. There are just too many unknowns. I'm sure a plan is/will be in place, but a lot of things can happen.

RedsManRick
06-07-2008, 02:27 PM
I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 02:29 PM
I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.

I don't think that anyone is making a decision based on a recently drafted prospect. I do think, however, that there is a strong possibility that the decision to draft Alonso was based upon events that the FO believes will happen.

There is a difference.

jojo
06-07-2008, 02:30 PM
I don't think this draft means anything regarding Dunn. Alonzo was one of the best bats in the draft, starting pitching was weak, the Reds smartly didn't waste their first pick on a reliever, and I guess they thought a bat was less risky than a tool box.

That's my take anyway.

Sea Ray
06-07-2008, 02:37 PM
I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.


I agree. I don't think Alonzo has anything to do with re-signing Dunn, unless you believe Alonzo will be ready to start in the major leagues next year. Alonzo is an investment in the future. Dunn's best years are right now.

dougdirt
06-07-2008, 02:38 PM
Except against LHPs.

Votto, Bruce and Dunn don't really seem to have issues hitting against lefties. Alonso, I can't really find splits for him but nowhere in his scouting report does it suggest he has big problems with lefties. Just because someone bats left handed doesn't mean they can't hit left handed pitching.

westofyou
06-07-2008, 02:42 PM
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=crasnick_jerry&id=3428763


The biggest decisions this winter will revolve around the corner outfield spots, at which Griffey has a $16.5 million club option awaiting him and Dunn is eligible for free agency.

There are legitimate reasons to think the Reds might hang on to Dunn. Owner Bob Castellini is a Dunn admirer, and it wouldn't make a lot of sense for the Reds to sever ties with Dunn only to turn around and pursue a Raul Ibanez, Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell. Dunn has averaged 41 homers and 100 RBIs per season the past four years and has a career on-base percentage of .382. You just don't replace that kind of production overnight.

The contrasting view is that Dunn might be ready for a change of scenery at 28. He took an emotional hit when the Reds traded his buddy Kearns to Washington, and he's grown tired of the trade rumors that have swirled around him in recent years. Sources say that Dunn also was less than thrilled last year when Bill Cunningham, a local radio provocateur who works for the Reds' flagship station, said Dunn played left field as if he were "drunk," and the club didn't exactly rush to his defense.

Dunn told the Reds that if he were going to sign an extension, it would have to be during spring training. That failed to materialize, and he's not interested in renewing talks or hashing out what-if scenarios now.

"I worry about all that stuff when the time is right," Dunn said, "and right now the time isn't right."

Sea Ray
06-07-2008, 02:43 PM
Votto, Bruce and Dunn don't really seem to have issues hitting against lefties. Alonso, I can't really find splits for him but nowhere in his scouting report does it suggest he has big problems with lefties. Just because someone bats left handed doesn't mean they can't hit left handed pitching.

Since he is notorious for going to LF with power, I'd venture to say he handles LHPs well

mth123
06-07-2008, 02:45 PM
1. do you think Votto can play RF?

2. if Votto is as good in RF as Dunn in LF that would be one bad defensive outfield. i hope walt realizes one of the reasons he won in St Louis was that the Cards played GREAT defense.

Its already a bad defensive OF. Votto is probably already better than the current version of Griffey as far as OF defense goes. As I said, its not my preference.

Caveat Emperor
06-07-2008, 02:50 PM
I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.

So, on a mid-market team with a non-infinite budget, you think they're comfortable extending Dunn for 5-6 years at over $10m per, knowing full well they're also about sink $6-$8m in his replacement in the form of a signing bonus?

I don't see it happening.

dougdirt
06-07-2008, 02:53 PM
So, on a mid-market team with a non-infinite budget, you think they're comfortable extending Dunn for 5-6 years at over $10m per, knowing full well they're also about sink $6-$8m in his replacement in the form of a signing bonus?

I don't see it happening.

And who says thats a bad thing? Dunn is certainly a valuable player, but is he really worth 16 million a year over 4-5 years while playing left field? The only way I am paying Dunn anywhere near that kind of money is if its at first base and we know Dunn won't play there (and its not because he can't, its because he won't).

RedsManRick
06-07-2008, 03:03 PM
So, on a mid-market team with a non-infinite budget, you think they're comfortable extending Dunn for 5-6 years at over $10m per, knowing full well they're also about sink $6-$8m in his replacement in the form of a signing bonus?

I don't see it happening.

Again, I don't think that the signing bonus for Alonso in any way impacts expenditures on the major league roster. And if they did, $8M amortized across the next few years isn't prohibitive towards resigning our most productive offensive player. If it does impact the major league budget, that money is coming out of the pockets of the next Freel or Affeldt, not Dunn.

That all said, if it required a 5 year commitment to resign Dunn, I'd be passing on him on the merits of that deal. I offer Dunn 3/45 with no trade for the first two years, setting him up to be part of this run and to be in position for an even bigger LTC after this contract ends. The problem with signing Dunn, for me, isn't whether he'll continue to perform at a level that justifies his salary -- even at $15M. It's whether, given his body type and playing time, will he hold up? I don't mind slighly overpaying for his level of performance, but I wouldn't want to be stuck with him battling leg or back issues on my dime without the DH available.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 03:12 PM
Votto, Bruce and Dunn don't really seem to have issues hitting against lefties. Alonso, I can't really find splits for him but nowhere in his scouting report does it suggest he has big problems with lefties. Just because someone bats left handed doesn't mean they can't hit left handed pitching.

Dunn is a lesser hitter vs LHPs and I would be willing to bet that both Votto and Bruce's numbers will start to decline vs LHPs over the rest of this year.

Will M
06-07-2008, 04:01 PM
Again, I don't think that the signing bonus for Alonso in any way impacts expenditures on the major league roster. And if they did, $8M amortized across the next few years isn't prohibitive towards resigning our most productive offensive player. If it does impact the major league budget, that money is coming out of the pockets of the next Freel or Affeldt, not Dunn.

That all said, if it required a 5 year commitment to resign Dunn, I'd be passing on him on the merits of that deal. I offer Dunn 3/45 with no trade for the first two years, setting him up to be part of this run and to be in position for an even bigger LTC after this contract ends. The problem with signing Dunn, for me, isn't whether he'll continue to perform at a level that justifies his salary -- even at $15M. It's whether, given his body type and playing time, will he hold up? I don't mind slighly overpaying for his level of performance, but I wouldn't want to be stuck with him battling leg or back issues on my dime without the DH available.

i suspect Dunn would get more than 3 years/$45M on the open market. Carlos Lee got 6 years/$100M in 11/2006. He seems a similar player ( all stick no glove left fielder ). if Dunn wants Carlos Lee money then i can see why that would concern Walt. its not the money per year, it is how many years.

Will M
06-07-2008, 04:04 PM
I don't think that anyone is making a decision based on a recently drafted prospect. I do think, however, that there is a strong possibility that the decision to draft Alonso was based upon events that the FO believes will happen.

There is a difference.

agree with this statement. i would hope the Reds brass has some short term and some long term plan 'pencilled' in. plans can change but you really need one to start with.

dougdirt
06-07-2008, 04:09 PM
Dunn is a lesser hitter vs LHPs and I would be willing to bet that both Votto and Bruce's numbers will start to decline vs LHPs over the rest of this year.

Lesser hitters, yes. Bad hitters, no.

jojo
06-07-2008, 04:12 PM
I'm not sure what the market will be this off season. I think it's going to undergo a "correction" sooner than later. The recent vamped up emphasis on young players who are under control by teams like Boston and the Yanks seems to support this notion.

Concerning Dunn, one potential suitor who could throw a ton of money over a lot of years at Dunn (because he covets lefty "sock") will most likely be looking for a job (Bavasi). Though his successor will mostly appreciate that lefty power plays really well in Seattle.

It would be really interesting to see what happens concerning Dunn if Seattle were to hire a saber guy like Antonetti as their GM.

Reds1
06-07-2008, 04:31 PM
No, I predict Griffey gone and Dunn signed to a LTC

bucksfan2
06-07-2008, 04:40 PM
I think there is a direct correlation to the drafting of Alonso and Dunn's contract situation. First off Dunn is probably looking at getting 4+ years due to his production but also his age. Second off Votto has shown that he is one of the better offensive players on this current version and the reds control him for 6? years. What I just don't understand is why draft a 1b who is probably one of the most MLB ready players in the draft when you are set at his position for the next 5-6 years? That is unless you think that Alonso's bat can replace Dunn's. What I also find just a little ironic is the opening up of a 40 roster slot for Alonso.

I understand that you don't draft for need per say but you have to realize what your farm system has when you draft players. The Reds really aren't that deep at 1b in the farm system but they are set at the MLB level for a while. On the other hand they don't have any inticing SS prospects. I could better understand the 1b pick if it were a high schooler or a 1b who can play multiple positions. A high schooler would spend some developmental time in the minors where as if everything goes according to schedule with Alonso the reds FO will have to make a personal decision involving one of their most productive bats in order for Alonso to see playing time.

HokieRed
06-07-2008, 05:00 PM
Agree with Doug on the money. Given this team's other needs I don't think it can afford 80 for 5 for a left-fielder; we've got to spread the money better. I do think they were just drafting BPA and will negotiate seriously with Dunn. If Dunn signs and Alonso does well, it's certainly conceivable that Votto would be the odd man out. But if Alonso does what he looks like he might, and Votto can handle left field, then the three most important offensive positions on the field are covered--and very reasonably for several years. That frees up a lot of money for other moves. Another guy who may yet have something to say about all of this is Danny Dorn, another good left-handed bat who may be ready by next spring.

MikeS21
06-07-2008, 05:16 PM
I think the Reds learned from Griffey's contract that they don't want to tie up such a huge portion of the salary budget on one player - especially knowing that other players will be jumping salaries over the next 2-3 years.

Despite Dunn's month of May, he has apparently cooled off some, and I think we'll see a slumping Dunn for the next couple of weeks. I still think Adam Dunn would do well in someplace like San Fransisco, where they need a bat to replace Bonds. They need a guy who can hit balls out into the bay. If you can pry a decent young pitcher who may be ready next season, it might be worth exploring.

Or you could always let Dunn walk and take the compensation draft picks.

Wheelhouse
06-07-2008, 05:18 PM
Except against LHPs.

I dunno. Votto and Bruce both hit lefties well.

cincinnati chili
06-07-2008, 05:44 PM
I think making any decision at the major league level based on a recently drafted prospect is not a good idea. If Dunn resigns, Votto continues to hit, and Alonso is ready to go in 2010, that's a problem Jocketty can address at that time. A great prospect for us is a great prospect for anybody.

I think the converse is true too. I don't believe in ever making draft picks based on the major league roster. Always take the best available player. Had we done that around 1995, we'd have drafted Derek Jeter over Chad Mottola.

In my untrained eye, I don't think Alonso was the best player available. But hopefully the Reds drafted him because they thought he was, and hopefully they're right.

Will M
06-07-2008, 05:58 PM
I think the converse is true too. I don't believe in ever making draft picks based on the major league roster. Always take the best available player. Had we done that around 1995, we'd have drafted Derek Jeter over Chad Mottola.

In my untrained eye, I don't think Alonso was the best player available. But hopefully the Reds drafted him because they thought he was, and hopefully they're right.

we'll call that scenario E: the reds simply drafted who they thought was the best player and it has no bearing on the major league roster/Dunn's situation

princeton
06-07-2008, 06:02 PM
I suspect that they'll take a long look at Yonder Goes-the-Ball this July, and how he performs may very well impact what they do with Dunn by end of that month.

it's not ideal, but deadlines happen and decisions get made as a result.

Sea Ray
06-07-2008, 06:22 PM
I suspect that they'll take a long look at Yonder Goes-the-Ball this July, and how he performs may very well impact what they do with Dunn by end of that month.

it's not ideal, but deadlines happen and decisions get made as a result.

So you think he'll sign right away?

I'm not so sure they'll get an opportunity to see him play much this summer. I expect his signing to go to the deadline. I don't see the Reds going anywhere near the $8mill figure but they may go about $3mill and a major league contract

AmarilloRed
06-07-2008, 06:55 PM
Alonso will probably be in the minors for a minimum of three years, and Dunn could sign a LTC for 3 -6 years. It may come to pass that neither Dunn nor Alonso will be on the Reds at the same time.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 07:16 PM
I dunno. Votto and Bruce both hit lefties well.

Votto struggled vs LHPs throughout the minors. This year he hits them better than righties. Yet to be seen whether this will hold true throughout his career.

Bruce? Not sure what his minor league career looks like.

GAC
06-07-2008, 07:21 PM
It will be interesting because Alonso is asking for an 8 mil signing bonus and a major league deal.

I don't know if he was one of the best athletes available in the draft; but the Reds felt so from their perspective.

He's college level, so he's at a minimum of 2-3 years away.

At this point I'mnot going to read amything else into it. If it's the Red's plans to have him play 1B at some stage, then yes, someone is going to be moved.

dougdirt
06-07-2008, 07:21 PM
Votto struggled vs LHPs throughout the minors. This year he hits them better than righties. Yet to be seen whether this will hold true throughout his career.

Bruce? Not sure what his minor league career looks like.

Joey Votto changed his approach when he reached AAA though. He started going the other way A LOT more. Bruce struggled with lefties as a 19 year old, beat them up pretty good as a 20 year old and is doing the same this year.

edabbs44
06-07-2008, 07:48 PM
It will be interesting because Alonso is asking for an 8 mil signing bonus and a major league deal.

I don't know if he was one of the best athletes available in the draft; but the Reds felt so from their perspective.

He's college level, so he's at a minimum of 2-3 years away.

At this point I'mnot going to read amything else into it. If it's the Red's plans to have him play 1B at some stage, then yes, someone is going to be moved.

I don't think that he's a minimum of 2-3 years away. I think that, based on his ranking/draft slot/scouting report/bonus demands, that's probably exactly the range of how far away he is.

crazybob60
06-07-2008, 10:10 PM
Well Alonso just hit a 3 Run Homer against Arizona that even though it just barely cleared the wall (actually it hit the top of the wall and went over) it was one you could tell was a homer all the way. I have a real good feeling about this kid. It will be great if the Reds can move him to a different position other than 1B as it appears they are pretty stocked there. On the Reds pre-game I believe I heard that they were mentioning either 3B and even Catcher as other options....and if they could get him as a Catcher now that would be great, but I guess only time will tell.

princeton
06-07-2008, 10:55 PM
He's college level, so he's at a minimum of 2-3 years away.
.

Jay Bruce was HS level upon drafting, and was only 3 years away

Kc61
06-07-2008, 11:11 PM
My guess is that with Alonso it becomes less likely Dunn stays a Red.

I don't care whether Votto or Bruce hit lefties well, it's impossible for me to see Dunn, Votto, Alonso, and Bruce all on the same Reds team. It would require a Dunn, Votto, Bruce outfield which would be a disaster defensively. Or somebody would have to play way out of position, like Alonso at third base. Not happening.

Somebody from this group is going to be leaving and it's not Bruce and, my guess, it's not Alonso.

Alonso is very advanced and is likely to be a Red in 2010.

If the Reds are offered a good trade for Dunn at the deadline, this draft pick might cause them to pull the trigger.

jojo
06-07-2008, 11:38 PM
Even if drafting Alonso did portend something for Dunn's future, it seems to me that he'd have an awful lot of work ahead of him after signing with the Reds before he forced any decision on the active roster.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2008, 12:22 AM
This is Dunn's prime and his last chance for a mega contract. He is not signing for less than 5-6 yrs, unless he is overly compensated to do so. Either 5 yrs and between 75-90 Mill (lower end if he's feeling very generous) or 4 yrs and 80-100 Mill. Anyone who believes otherwise is fooling themselves. Yeah BobC likes Dunn alot, but true love would have to be the emotion connected to that check and I for one don't see it.

The fact that the Reds were rumored to have been thinking big bat when a MI was the consensus BPA. And their ensuing selection of said big bat speaks to the idea that they are feeling it's just not worth the money.

Alonso is on the Red's 25 man roster sometime before the end of next season, believe it. And Dunn is likely somewhere in or more near Texas than Cincy.

flyer85
06-08-2008, 12:49 AM
no one yet knows how Alonso is going to turn out. His drafting likely has nothing to do with what the Reds are going to do with Dunn.

vaticanplum
06-08-2008, 01:56 AM
I think the converse is true too. I don't believe in ever making draft picks based on the major league roster. Always take the best available player. Had we done that around 1995, we'd have drafted Derek Jeter over Chad Mottola.

And he'd be in an outfield corner or the hot corner where he belongs. But don't tell any other Yankee fans you heard me say that.

Caveat Emperor
06-08-2008, 03:29 AM
I don't think that he's a minimum of 2-3 years away. I think that, based on his ranking/draft slot/scouting report/bonus demands, that's probably exactly the range of how far away he is.

If you believe the hype, you would have to suspect that Alonso is roughly 2 years away. He'll sign, likely play this season @ Dayton and start next season in Sarasota. From there, he'll advance as far and as quickly as his bat takes him.

My guess is that the reason he was BPA on the Reds draft board has much to do with the fact that he's projected to hit the bigs quickly and could give a team headlined by Bruce, Votto and Phillips a shot in the offensive arm midsummer in 2010.

cincinnati chili
06-08-2008, 06:15 AM
And he'd be in an outfield corner or the hot corner where he belongs. But don't tell any other Yankee fans you heard me say that.

That would be fine with me.

OR we would have traded him for a lot of missing pieces

OR we would have traded Barry Larkin for a lot of missing pieces, and kept him at SS and held our nose at his lack of range.

Either way, we lost out on a lot of value.

OTOH, Who knows, maybe the Reds would have ruined him and told him he was worthless when he made 56 errors (.889 fielding percentage) in his second year of pro ball.

But unlike in the NFL, you always take the best player available in the MLB draft

GAC
06-08-2008, 06:20 AM
I don't think that he's a minimum of 2-3 years away. I think that, based on his ranking/draft slot/scouting report/bonus demands, that's probably exactly the range of how far away he is.

Sorry. Not worded properly on my part. I meant more in line with what you state.

I think Dunn is gone. Why? According to Adam, there has been no conversations, no hints of any talks, between this FO and Dunn and/or his agent.

I personally believe Walt, "behind the scenes", is exploring who might be interested, and will try, if possible, to work a trade before the deadline.

This FO knew exactly what they were doing when they drafted this kid, who could only be a couple years away. He's a 1bman. I don't see them trying to convert him to any other position. From what I've read his defense (glove) is average.

So now it's become even more crowded with three power hitting LHers with limited position skills.

I hope I'm wrong; but one of the two (Dunn or Votto) is gone IMO.

Yes, there is the chance they could try to package Votto in some sort of trade deal to make it more appealing because he'd be locked up cheap for the next several years.

But that could be the main reason why the Reds are going to keep him, and insert him in LF.

I have a strange feeling Adam is history.

I hope I'm wrong.

RedlegJake
06-08-2008, 07:21 AM
I don't think Alonso was drafted to replace Dunn per se. No way he's going to replace Adam next year and that's what is necessary if they don't sign Dunn. I think Yonder was simply rated higher than G Beckham or Smoak on the Reds board and they took him.

Hard to say if Dunn is gone or not because Jocketty wasn't in the position to negotiate in ST and both he and Dunn are saying they don't want to do it now. Given the circumstances I don't find that unreasonable. Walt doesn't want his options limited at this point. As it stands he can explore trades, keeping Dunn, or offering arb and taking the picks. AFTER the deadline, if Dunn isn't traded - that's when the talks will begin with Adam's agent. Alonso has nothing, imo, to do with it.

GAC
06-08-2008, 08:25 AM
I don't think Alonso was drafted to replace Dunn per se. No way he's going to replace Adam next year and that's what is necessary if they don't sign Dunn. I think Yonder was simply rated higher than G Beckham or Smoak on the Reds board and they took him.

Hard to say if Dunn is gone or not because Jocketty wasn't in the position to negotiate in ST and both he and Dunn are saying they don't want to do it now. Given the circumstances I don't find that unreasonable. Walt doesn't want his options limited at this point. As it stands he can explore trades, keeping Dunn, or offering arb and taking the picks. AFTER the deadline, if Dunn isn't traded - that's when the talks will begin with Adam's agent. Alonso has nothing, imo, to do with it.

I hope you're right Redleg. But at some point they are going to have to do something (move somebody). We now have three players in Dunn, Votto, and now Alonso, who are not multi-position players. There is really not any options there as far as converting a player to another position. Alonso is a 1bman and that is it. He has had some minimal experience at 3B; but that is why he is now at 1B IMO. And I'm really not that keen on Votto playing LF either if Dunn is gone. I don't see, IMO, a huge defensive upgrade there at all.

As a result of the option on Dunn being exercised he receives a full no-trade clause thru June 15th. After June 15th, he may choose 19 teams to which he cannot be traded to w/out his written consent.

That's just a little over a week a way. It's going to be interesting to see what happens after that date. I know it's gonna make a lot of fans (especially on here) nervous. ;)

And it could very well be that the Reds picked up Alonso, or could use Votto, to possibly "sweeten" any other trade packages of players currently in the system Walt may try to formulate.

puca
06-08-2008, 09:33 AM
Dunn was a goner long before the draft was held.

The window of opportunity to sign Dunn to a friendly LTC closed this offseason. At this point there is little reason for Dunn not to wait and test the free agent market at seasons end. Considering Dunn is primed to sign a significant LTC in terms of years and dollars, I just can't see the Reds as serious players (even if they wanted to be).

GAC
06-08-2008, 10:11 AM
The window of opportunity to sign Dunn to a friendly LTC closed this offseason. At this point there is little reason for Dunn not to wait and test the free agent market at seasons end. Considering Dunn is primed to sign a significant LTC in terms of years and dollars, I just can't see the Reds as serious players (even if they wanted to be).

And as it was already mentioned earlier by another poster.... Dunn is in his prime and his agent will be looking for that one final LTC (not a 3 year deal). Is Bob & Walt going to be willing to poney that up? We'll see.

KronoRed
06-08-2008, 02:54 PM
I think the plan with Dunn hasn't changed at all for the FO, see how the team does then deal him or let him walk, keeping him has probably never seriously been considered.

As for drafting to replace him, that would be insanity for a major league baseball team to do, they will need to find a bat.

redsrule2500
06-08-2008, 03:43 PM
If this were the NFL, yes. I don't think so for the Reds, though. Draft picks rarely have that immediate of an impact!

Sea Ray
06-08-2008, 05:29 PM
Well Alonso just hit a 3 Run Homer against Arizona that even though it just barely cleared the wall (actually it hit the top of the wall and went over) it was one you could tell was a homer all the way. I have a real good feeling about this kid.


Did you see his AB previous to that one? He struck out and didn't get a foul tip in three swings against a junk balling lefty. I'm sure he's a talent but he's got some work to do to get to the big leagues

oregonred
06-08-2008, 05:52 PM
Did you see his AB previous to that one? He struck out and didn't get a foul tip in three swings against a junk balling lefty.

Sounds like he'll fit right in with the Reds tradition.

Screwball
06-09-2008, 03:11 AM
I found some pretty interesting stuff over on Mr. Redleg's blog (http://www.thelotd.com/goredlegs/blog/?pref_tab=blog). Here's a couple excerpts:



Translation: Votto to the outfield if Alonso arrives to the big leagues.

Not so fast, said another source, who believes owner Bob Castellini sincerely wants Dunn signed long term.


A different scout also had this to say about Alonso:



"He's strictly a first base/DH type who's probably a bat off the bench," the scout projected. Pressed further, including word that Alonso can play some third base or catch, the scout waved off the notion as "garbage."


Not very encouraging. But a different scout said this:



The selection of Alonso isn't without curiosity. No one questions his ability to hit. An AL East scout countered by saying Alonso might be Edgar Martinez minus the .317 career batting average—hitting gaps, putting the ball in play, 30 homers. That's all very inviting, very encouraging.


So, it looks like there's some disagreement about how good Alonso can be. I sure hope the Reds didn't pass on Beckham for a bat off the bench. As for Dunn, I've long maintained that if the owner wants you around, the dollars will work themselves out. From everything I've read, Mr. Castellini is a huge Adam Dunn fan, so I really do expect a LTC to be worked out.

Sea Ray
06-09-2008, 10:55 AM
So is he Darryl Ward or a RH Edgar Martinez? I guess the fact is there are very few sure bets in an amateur baseball draft, although I'd like to think where the Reds were drafting they'd gotten a little more certain prospect. I doubt the Reds' brass is thinking:

1) We let Dunn walk
2) We shift Votto to LF
3) Insert Alonzo at 1B

They know there's too much uncertainty in all that.

Too bad for the Reds that there wasn't a Lincecum or a Kazmir available at that slot this year.

REDREAD
06-09-2008, 11:40 AM
Dunn told the Reds that if he were going to sign an extension, it would have to be during spring training. That failed to materialize, and he's not interested in renewing talks or hashing out what-if scenarios now.

Thanks for posting that. I missed that quote..

So it looks like the Reds are backed into a corner now. They need to bid on him as a FA or trade him. I guess extending him before the season ends is no longer an option.. Looks like Wayne had planned on this being Dunn's last season, since Wayne didn't extend him in the spring. Of course, that doesn't tell us what Walt thinks, but an interesting and telling quote by Dunn there.

jojo
06-09-2008, 12:03 PM
Thanks for posting that. I missed that quote..

So it looks like the Reds are backed into a corner now. They need to bid on him as a FA or trade him. I guess extending him before the season ends is no longer an option.. Looks like Wayne had planned on this being Dunn's last season, since Wayne didn't extend him in the spring. Of course, that doesn't tell us what Walt thinks, but an interesting and telling quote by Dunn there.

I'd think that choosing to "bid" on him in the open market suggests the Reds are luke warm on retaining him. Basically that strategy only makes sense if you expect a market correction, expect a subpar year, or think you have a better handle on his market value than his camp does (i.e. they're asking for more than you think you'd have to pay). Those things, if true (and assuming the FO was right), would reflect very well on the ones making decisions. Or perhaps they just hadn't made up their minds on the issue by spring training or Bob C didn't want Krivsky making the decision. Those possibilities would suggest incompetence.

Or maybe none of the above applies.