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Benihana
06-08-2008, 11:54 AM
With the promotions of Bruce and Bailey as well as the draft, the ol' prospect list has some significant changes this month:

GRADE A (in these guys' cases, it should be Grade A-)

1. Daryl Thompson RHP 22 AAA
2. Todd Frazier 3B/LF 22 A
3. Yonder Alonso 1B 21 --

GRADE B

4. Devin Mesoraco C 19 A
5. Travis Wood LHP 21 AA
6. Chris Valaika 2B/SS 22 AA
7. Drew Stubbs CF 22 A+
8. Juan Francisco 3B 21 A+
9. Matt Maloney LHP 24 AAA
10. Josh Roenicke RHP 25 AAA

GRADE C

11. Brandon Waring 3B 22 A
12. Shaun Cumberland OF 23 AA
13. Daniel Dorn OF 23 AA
14. Jordan Smith RHP 23 AA
15. Danny Ray Herrera LHP 23 AAA
16. Sean Watson RHP 23 AA
17. Justin Turner 2B 23 AA
18. Tyler Pelland LHP 23 AAA
19. Ben Jukich LHP 25 AA
20. Zach Cozart SS 22 A

KEEP AN EYE ON (too early to rate)

Juan Duran OF
Kyle Lotzkar RHP
Neftali Soto 2B
Zach Stewart RHP
Justin Reed OF

ON THE RADAR

Josh Ravin RHP
Keltavious Jones OF
Jeff Jeffords RHP

DROPPED OFF THE RADAR
Adam Rosales INF

The biggest changes this month (other than the obvious graduations of Bruce and Bailey) are the introduction of Yonder Alonso, who could quickly become the #1 prospect with a quick signing/hot start in Dayton, and the meteoric rise of Devin Mesoraco, who has started hitting like a first round draft pick in Dayton. Given that it's only one month of good production, but if Mesoraco keeps hitting like this for the remainder of the season he will become a Grade A prospect. As for the current "Grade A" prospects Thompson, Frazier, and Alonso- none of the three is close (at this point) to the same caliber as previous Grade A guys like Bruce, Cueto, Votto and Bailey (hence the A-minus rating.) Zach Stewart could also quickly make a name for himself on the prospect list with a nice start to the season, although early reports have him destined for rookie ball after he signs. I'm looking forward to the debuts of Lotzkar and Soto coming up this week. I wouldn't be surprised to see either in Dayton by the end of the season.

Imminent Promotions

Due to the great number of promotions over the last few weeks, nobody strikes me as due for an imminent promotion.

Guys that should be considered for promotion by the All-Star Break

1. Danny Ray Herrera (had an impressive big league debut, should be back before long)
2. Matt Maloney (he should be next in line to make a spot start at the big league level if needed)
3. Ben Jukich (got shelled last outing, but should be in Louisville by next month)
4. Shaun Cumberland (looks like he's about ready for Louisville)
5. Todd Frazier (once he finds a position, he should be moved along quickly as long as he continues to hit)

Guys that should be considered for promotion by August

1. Drew Stubbs (starting to be now or never for Stubbs to start producing at a high level)
2. Brandon Waring (as long as he can take some walks)
3. Zach Stewart (no reason he can't end the year in Dayton to be on the fast track)
4. Kyle Lotzkar (only if he shows good progress in Billings)
5. Neftali Soto (ditto)

Thoughts?

*BaseClogger*
06-08-2008, 12:07 PM
Wow, it's not very often this happens, but I pretty much agree with everything you just typed. One thing: I think I like Dorn more...

dougdirt
06-08-2008, 12:07 PM
I think you are overrating Brandon Waring for starters. Massive power, but has a giant strikeout problem and doesn't walk too much. He has 1 tool thats above average and its power.

redhawk61
06-08-2008, 01:31 PM
I would think that if Valaika could get his OPS to.800+ (.790 now) and sustain that for a couple of weeks, he wold be warranted a promotion to AAA

Joseph
06-08-2008, 01:40 PM
I would think that if Valaika could get his OPS to.800+ (.790 now) and sustain that for a couple of weeks, he wold be warranted a promotion to AAA

Wasn't he only recently sent to AA? I think I'd like to see him there a while longer first. He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.

redhawk61
06-08-2008, 02:05 PM
Wasn't he only recently sent to AA? I think I'd like to see him there a while longer first. He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.

well he has had almost the same amount of AB's in AA as in A+, so given a few more weeks where he might be at 175-200 AB's, if his OPS is back to .800 I think it is warranted

dougdirt
06-08-2008, 02:11 PM
I would keep Valaika in AA until at least July rolls around. Let him get used to the league a little more. If he continues killing the ball, then 3 more weeks isn't going to hurt his development to much at all.

redhawk61
06-08-2008, 02:19 PM
I would keep Valaika in AA until at least July rolls around. Let him get used to the league a little more. If he continues killing the ball, then 3 more weeks isn't going to hurt his development to much at all.

Thats what I am saying. He shouldn't be promoted now but, 4-6 more weeks, if he continues hitting isn't out of the question.

redhawk61
06-08-2008, 02:21 PM
He's not Jay Bruce who can fly through the ranks in one season.

even if he is performing? Just cause his name is not Jay Bruce, doesn't mean he can't succeed at three levels in one year.

Joseph
06-08-2008, 02:28 PM
even if he is performing? Just cause his name is not Jay Bruce, doesn't mean he can't succeed at three levels in one year.

I realize that. But there is being aggressive and then there is being unrealistic. I don't think we as fans should come to expect a player a year to rise meteorically through our system.

If Val can do it through the better part of July though, sure, push him up.

Mario-Rijo
06-08-2008, 02:41 PM
I wouldn't think Francisco warrants a B grade just yet. He is still young for his level but he's going to run into a wall soon until he changes his approach and not just a little but alot.

mth123
06-08-2008, 03:20 PM
Tonys Gutierrez? I really like that kid. I'm in favor of making room for him in AAA and starting Alonso in AA.

Kc61
06-08-2008, 10:33 PM
I think the list overrates Maloney right now.

I think the list underrates Sean Watson.

I think Tonys Gutierrez should be in there somewhere.

camisadelgolf
06-10-2008, 11:40 PM
I like the respect for Cozart. He deserves it. I'm on his bandwagon all the way.

gedred69
06-11-2008, 07:06 PM
Notice how Dorn keeps creeping up now that he is apparently back healthy? He skipped Dayton last season to High A, and ended up playing strong after promotion to AA 'nooga. That's like 3 levels in one year. I would think he's looking at playing at AAA soon.

thorn
06-11-2008, 07:15 PM
I think you are overrating Brandon Waring for starters. Massive power, but has a giant strikeout problem and doesn't walk too much. He has 1 tool thats above average and its power.

I hate to say it Doug, but that sounds like Fransico, so why is it he's getting a pass and not Waring? Plus waring plays a better 3B and is only a year older, considering Fransico has been in PRO ball longer, he's no where near a B for me.

dougdirt
06-11-2008, 07:32 PM
I hate to say it Doug, but that sounds like Fransico, so why is it he's getting a pass and not Waring? Plus waring plays a better 3B and is only a year older, considering Fransico has been in PRO ball longer, he's no where near a B for me.

Francisco is 20, Waring is 22. Francisco is a level ahead of Waring as well. The upsides of each isn't really close either. Francisco has a special bat and poor discipline but good defensive tools. Waring had an approach of swinging from the heels (and that is his own words) with a terrible strikeout problem at a level he is not young for. The two players strikeouts aren't really in the same category. Francisco, at a younger age and a higher level strikes out 21% of the time he steps to the plate. Waring, older and at a lower level is striking out in 30% of the time he steps to the plate. That said, I am not giving Francisco any type of favortism. His bat is much better than Warings but his plate discipline is at a downright scary place still.

thorn
06-11-2008, 08:12 PM
Francisco is 20, Waring is 22. Francisco is a level ahead of Waring as well. The upsides of each isn't really close either. Francisco has a special bat and poor discipline but good defensive tools. Waring had an approach of swinging from the heels (and that is his own words) with a terrible strikeout problem at a level he is not young for. The two players strikeouts aren't really in the same category. Francisco, at a younger age and a higher level strikes out 21% of the time he steps to the plate. Waring, older and at a lower level is striking out in 30% of the time he steps to the plate. That said, I am not giving Francisco any type of favortism. His bat is much better than Warings but his plate discipline is at a downright scary place still.

He's a year and a half older, not 2, he turns 21 in 13 days. Fransico K's less and BB's less but regardless of the comparison between the 2, Fransico's still no where near a B prospect. He's had time to work on his BB problem, I don't see the improvement.

dougdirt
06-11-2008, 08:57 PM
He's a year and a half older, not 2, he turns 21 in 13 days. Fransico K's less and BB's less but regardless of the comparison between the 2, Fransico's still no where near a B prospect. He's had time to work on his BB problem, I don't see the improvement.

Year and a half is a whole lot of age for minor leaguers. Still, Francisco's potential is a whole lot more than that of Waring. I think Francisco's upside puts him at a B- prospect.

redsof72
06-12-2008, 12:30 PM
Lotzkar will be the Dayton starting pitcher on Friday night.

Grande Donkey
06-12-2008, 12:59 PM
Lotzkar will be the Dayton starting pitcher on Friday night.Nice. Can't wait to hear how he does.

Benihana
06-07-2011, 06:22 PM
Just for fun, and because it's three years to the day (tomorrow), I thought I'd bump this for people to see where we were as a system three years ago, compared to where we are today.

Also keep in mind this list was made immediately after Bruce and Bailey had graduated to the majors.