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Kc61
06-09-2008, 11:06 AM
The Reds now lose constantly on the road and win usually at home. Something needs to be fixed. I'm sure there are many stats that tell the story.

A couple of basics --

Team ERA at home is 3.67 and on the road is 5.11.

Team OPS is .789 at home and .708 on the road.


If it's just the coziness of GABP, why is the pitching so much better at GABP? We might assume the opposite.

I'd be interested in people breaking this down more precisely, if they have the information. Why this disparity?

Falls City Beer
06-09-2008, 11:09 AM
I'm not a huge believer in luck or randomness, but when it comes to home/road splits, I think it's mostly just that.

Plus, I think defenses tend to play better at home in a park they're used to fielding. But that's conjecture.

lollipopcurve
06-09-2008, 11:17 AM
Plus, I think defenses tend to play better at home in a park they're used to fielding. But that's conjecture.

Bigger parks on the road mean larger OF expanses -- and the Reds OF does not cover a lot of ground.

Spring~Fields
06-09-2008, 12:42 PM
Team ERA at home is 3.67 and on the road is 5.11.

Why this disparity?

Possible contributors to the disparity in team ERA.
Catchers, Advance scouts, or advance scouting methods use.



NAME GS E FPCT RF ZR PB CERA
Paul Bako 42 3 .992 8.98 1.000 3 3.91
David Ross 17 2 .985 8.00 1.000 3 5.38
J. Valentin 5 0 1.000 9.37 1.000 1 5.40
Totals 5 5 .991 8.76 1.000 7 4.44

Still doesn't answer why though.

RedsManRick
06-09-2008, 12:54 PM
Until and unless CERA can control for the quality of the pitchers caught, it really strikes me as a best case useless, worst case misleading statistic. It's right there with blaming Aaron Harang for his poor run support. That's not to say that catchers have no influence over pitcher performance, but it's a really, really poor way to measure their effect.

As for home/road, It's been what 25 games at each place? A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.

westofyou
06-09-2008, 12:59 PM
Atlanta is even worse off

25-11 - Home

7-21 - Road

Spring~Fields
06-09-2008, 01:00 PM
A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.

Yes, same with the catcher/era. "A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty masive impact", making their numbers somewhat bogus or misleading, I should say. I am going to look at the blowouts and suspects next i.e. the pitchers.

I have no method or source to show any possible contribution to the pitching problems by scouting reports, catchers or the one calling the pitches, even though they can contribute to the problems. Frustrating that we always seem to have some gaps in our information while trying to find genuine answers.

Kc61
06-09-2008, 01:08 PM
As for home/road, It's been what 25 games at each place? A few blowouts or shutouts can have a pretty massive impact.

Not buying that. Team is 19-10 at home, 11-24 on the road. Not a function of a few blowout games or shutouts. Big performance difference between home and road.

My guess is that some individuals have a big disparity in performance between home and road. Haven't checked.

Spring~Fields
06-09-2008, 01:24 PM
It's right there with blaming Aaron Harang for his poor run support.

Run support, tipping their pitches, stealing signs, advance scout reports, use and application of the information from the reports, calling of the pitches during the game, defensive lapses that lead to additional outs or additional pitches thrown, pitchers confidence, yes they each can possibly make contributions but, I can't measure the possible contributors to help gather any conclusions that might help answer the question of why the disparity. Even mechanics implying an affect on pitch execution, a batter can hit a well executed pitch from good mechanics and a team score runs to drive up the disparity.

flyer85
06-09-2008, 01:26 PM
from an offensive standpoint



player home road
Phillips 827 790
Encarnacion 704 791
Griffey 747 786
Votto 931 759
Dunn 921 966


Not much in the offensive numbers

Matt700wlw
06-09-2008, 01:28 PM
Most teams are not as good on the road than home....but this team is like two different ballclubs.

These road trips are painful to watch. The homestands weren't much to write home about until last month.

This team simply cannot perform on the road...it's pathetic.

Sea Ray
06-09-2008, 01:31 PM
It seems to me that the disparity league wide between home/away is larger than usual in 2008. I don't know what it is. Also seems to be more sweeps and fewer split series.

As for our Reds I think their youth has something to do with it. Why they can't hit in ballparks like Citizens Bank in Philly is a mystery to me

RedlegJake
06-09-2008, 01:31 PM
IMO, there are a few factors going on.

FCB hit one - but its true of most teams -the defense is used to playing in their own park. Plus the Reds OF particularly is better suited to the cozier confines of GAB than roaming bigger parks on the road.

On the road the offense is hit by a double whammy -- low OBP, a product of the talent on the team which tends overall toward low BA sluggers and free swingers. Yes, with Dunn they draw a lot of walks, but with Adam's exception not many of these guys are patient types and with Kepp out only Bruce is a high contact rate hitter.

Add to that they don't play long ball on the road at all - from a .452 SP at home to a putrid .381 on the road. Walks are constant but BA drops from .260 to .250 and as shown the slugging drops off a cliff.

Result? 149 runs in 1400 PA road to 141 runs in only 1084 home PAs. .106 scoring per PA road. .130 scoring per PA home. That's per PA mind you - that's a tremendously significant difference.

For pitching the stats reflect a similarity home and away in nearly every area but one --hits allowed. In fact the staff is marginaly better in most peripherals ON THE ROAD. Not what you'd expect to see with such a difference in home and road ERA.

On the road the staff allows 1.15 hits per inning; at home just .091 hits per inning. That, of course, pushes the OBP and SP against up significantly on the road.

Homers allowed, and walks -as a percentage of innings remain pretty stable - but on the road they allow a lot more ordinary singles and doubles than at home.
2b/3B every 4.45 innings at home, every 3.61 innings on the road.

They only allow a homer on the road every 7.05 innings LESS than the 1 in 6.85 innings at home.

Walks -they allow one every 2.61 innings road and 1 per 2.64 innings at home. Notice the staff actually pitches better relative to homers and walks on the road.

Ks? 8.17 per 9 road, 8.02/9 road.

The conclusion, to me, is that the defense may play a pretty significant role viz lack of range on the road. You can't place all the blame for the extra hits on the defense but I think it is a significant factor in the staff's road performance.

Other peripherals -BB rate, Ks, homers allowed -the staff performs marginally better on the road. Why are they giving up the ordinary 1/2 base variety of hits at such a higher clip then when on the road?

Pressure pitching behind with an anemic offense lending little run support probably contributes, and the defense has to be a big factor. Dig deeper than just the OPS/SP differential home/away and a picture emerges of a staff beleagured by poor defense and poor run support on the road.

Spring~Fields
06-09-2008, 01:44 PM
Bigger parks on the road mean larger OF expanses -- and the Reds OF does not cover a lot of ground.

What is the park factor as it contributes to ERA, or how do we determine or measure the range factor of the outfielders inability to get to certain balls that another or a better fielder might get to and it's influence on ERA? Home park vs away park?

blumj
06-09-2008, 01:44 PM
It seems to me that the disparity league wide between home/away is larger than usual in 2008. I don't know what it is. Also seems to be more sweeps and fewer split series.


It really does. The Red Sox are +20 at home, -6 on the road. The Braves are +14 at home, -14 away. The Cubs are +18 at home, -2 on the road. It's nuts.

Kc61
06-09-2008, 03:18 PM
Some pitching ERA comps --

Harang home 3.72 road 4.91. (Harang's 2-9 really makes a big difference in team record)

Cueto home 3.60 road 7.28. (Huge difference)

Cordero home 1.23 road 4.85 (Wasn't he better at home with the Brewers too?)

Burton home 1.06 road 4.91.

mth123
06-09-2008, 08:35 PM
Bigger parks on the road mean larger OF expanses -- and the Reds OF does not cover a lot of ground.

This is my theory as well. Bigger parks hurt the HR dependent offense while also hurting the pitching by virtue of the range challenged defense. I think it shows up most in OF playing deeper in the bigger parks and more balls falling in for hits. A larger (but still not large enough) percentage of those dinks and dunks get caught in Cincy because the OF doesn't have to play as deeply.

But that is all purely observation which may be skewed. I'm not sure the stats support those assertions. I'm not sure I have enough confidence in defensive stats for it to matter to me anyway.

mbgrayson
06-10-2008, 02:16 AM
....or maybe it's just the good vibes that come from the fans cheering for you instead of against you....(except when we play the Cubs at GABP...)

Spring~Fields
06-10-2008, 03:13 AM
The primary ERA suspects - Starters
Non-Active MLB
NAME IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA
Josh Fogg 28.1 39 31 7 10 17 5.40 68.8 1.73 9.85
Matt Belisle 29.2 47 24 4 6 14 4.25 86.0 1.79 7.28

Active MLB
NAME IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA
B. Arroyo 73.2 95 47 13 30 71 8.67 98.9 1.70 5.74
Johnny Cueto 74.2 77 42 16 23 70 8.44 97.9 1.34 5.06
Aaron Harang 94.0 105 45 14 20 82 7.85 103.6 1.33 4.31
Homer Bailey 6.1 4 2 1 4 1 1.42 89.0 1.26 2.84
E. Volquez 75.0 49 11 3 38 91 10.92 103.1 1.16 1.32

The primary ERA suspects - Relievers
Non-Active MLB
NAME IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA
Todd Coffey 15.1 18 11 3 6 5 2.93 0.0 1.57 6.46
Kent Mercker 13.2 13 5 1 8 6 3.95 0.0 1.54 3.29

Active MLB
NAME IP H ER HR BB SO K/9 P/GS WHIP ERA
Mike Lincoln 28.1 26 16 5 7 23 7.31 0.0 1.16 5.08
D. Weathers 21.2 24 10 4 13 15 6.23 0.0 1.71 4.15
J. Affeldt 28.1 28 12 5 12 31 9.85 0.0 1.41 3.81
F. Cordero 27.2 16 9 3 18 31 10.08 0.0 1.23 2.93
Jared Burton 31.2 33 10 3 10 35 9.95 0.0 1.36 2.84
Gary Majewski 3.1 3 1 0 1 2 5.40 0.0 1.20 2.70
Bill Bray 17.1 16 5 0 10 17 8.83 0.0 1.50 2.60
Danny Herrera 1.0 0 0 0 1 2 18.00 0.0 1.00 0.00
Totals 570.0 593 281 82 217 513 8.10 97.3 1.42 4.44

Home/Away - Stats
Non-Active MLB
Josh Fogg IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 14.1 23 24 22 6 7 .359 13.81
As reliever 14.0 16 9 9 1 3 .286 5.79
Home 11.1 15 14 14 5 5 .326 11.12
Away 17.0 24 19 17 2 5 .324 9.00

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. CHC 2.0 7 9 9 1 2 .538 40.50
vs. MIL 5.0 4 3 1 1 0 .200 1.80
vs. ATL 6.0 13 11 11 2 4 .419 16.50
vs. HOU 2.0 2 0 0 0 2 .250 0.00
vs. LAD 3.0 1 2 2 1 2 .100 6.00
vs. PHI 4.0 5 6 6 2 3 .357 13.50
vs. STL 4.2 4 0 0 0 1 .235 0.00
vs. SDG 1.2 3 2 2 0 0 .429 10.80

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Turner Field 2.2 6 5 5 0 2 .429 16.88
Great American 11.1 15 14 14 5 5 .326 11.12
PETCO Park 1.2 3 2 2 0 0 .429 10.80
Wrigley Field 2.0 7 9 9 1 2 .538 40.50
Miller Park 5.0 4 3 1 1 0 .200 1.80
Busch Stadium 4.2 4 0 0 0 1 .235 0.00
Dodger Stadium 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .326 / 1.135 AWAY: .324 / .875
VS. LEFT: .377 / 1.016 VS. RIGHT: .271 / .934

Home/Away - Stats
Non-Active MLB
Matt Belisle IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 29.2 47 27 24 4 6 .353 7.28
As Starter 29.2 47 27 24 4 6 .353 7.28
Home 4.0 12 7 5 1 1 .545 11.25
Away 25.2 35 20 19 3 5 .315 6.66

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. ATL 5.1 8 2 2 0 0 .333 3.38
vs. LAD 10.0 19 10 8 1 1 .396 7.20
vs. NYM 5.0 7 6 5 0 3 .350 9.00
vs. SDG 4.1 8 5 5 2 1 .400 10.39
vs. SFO 5.0 5 4 4 1 1 .238 7.20

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Dodger Stadium 6.0 7 3 3 0 0 .269 4.50
Shea Stadium 5.0 7 6 5 0 3 .350 9.00
Turner Field 5.1 8 2 2 0 0 .333 3.38
AT&T Park 5.0 5 4 4 1 1 .238 7.20
Great American 4.0 12 7 5 1 1 .545 11.25
PETCO Park 4.1 8 5 5 2 1 .400 10.39

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .545 / 1.383 AWAY: .315 / .825
VS. LEFT: .296 / .831 VS. RIGHT: .419 / 1.019

Home/Away - Stats
Non-Active MLB
Todd Coffey IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 15.1 18 11 11 3 6 .300 6.46
Home 10.0 8 2 2 0 4 .242 1.80
Away 5.1 10 9 9 3 2 .370 15.19

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. LAD 2.0 1 0 0 0 2 .167 0.00
vs. MIL 3.1 3 1 1 1 2 .273 2.70
vs. CHC 1.2 3 1 1 1 0 .333 5.40
vs. PHI 3.2 3 1 1 0 0 .214 2.46
vs. PIT 1.2 3 4 4 1 1 .375 21.60
vs. SFO 1.0 2 3 3 0 1 .400 27.00
vs. ARI 2.0 3 1 1 0 0 .429 4.50

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Wrigley Field 1.2 3 1 1 1 0 .333 5.40
AT&T Park 1.0 2 3 3 0 1 .400 27.00
Miller Park 1.0 2 1 1 1 0 .400 9.00
PNC Park 1.2 3 4 4 1 1 .375 21.60
Great American 10.0 8 2 2 0 4 .242 1.80

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .242 / .619 AWAY: .370 / 1.211
VS. LEFT: .227 / .593 VS. RIGHT: .342 / 1.053

Home/Away - Stats
B. Arroyo IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 73.2 95 53 47 13 30 .316 5.74
Home 33.0 39 23 20 6 14 .305 5.46
Away 40.2 56 30 27 7 16 .324 5.98

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. PIT 11.0 9 4 3 0 6 .214 2.46
vs. STL 6.0 6 3 3 1 3 .240 4.50
vs. SDG 6.1 7 2 2 0 1 .269 2.84
vs. FLA 11.2 12 4 4 2 5 .273 3.09
vs. ARI 5.0 4 4 2 1 3 .222 3.60
vs. MIL 5.2 8 5 4 1 3 .381 6.35
vs. ATL 1.1 7 7 7 1 1 .778 47.25
vs. HOU 3.2 10 8 8 0 1 .500 19.64
vs. LAD 5.0 9 5 3 0 3 .39 15.40
vs. NYM 8.0 4 1 1 0 2 .148 1.13
vs. PHI 9.0 19 10 10 7 2 .413 9.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Great American 33.0 39 23 20 6 14 .305 5.46
Turner Field 1.1 7 7 7 1 0 .778 47.25
PNC Park 5.0 6 3 2 0 2 .286 3.60
Busch Stadium 6.0 6 3 3 1 3 .240 4.50
Dodger Stadium 5.0 9 5 3 0 3 .391 5.40
Shea Stadium 8.0 4 1 1 0 2 .148 1.13
Dolphin Stadium 4.2 7 4 4 2 2 .333 7.71
CitizensBankPark4.1 10 5 5 3 2 .476 10.39
PETCO Park 6.1 7 2 2 0 1 .269 2.84

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .305 / .900 AWAY: .324 / .905
VS. LEFT: .350 / 1.002 VS. RIGHT: .286 / .818

Home/Away - Stats
Mike Lincoln IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 28.1 26 17 16 5 7 .245 5.08
Home 11.1 8 6 5 0 1 .195 3.97
Away 17.0 18 11 11 5 6 .277 5.82

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. ATL 2.2 1 2 2 0 1 .125 6.75
vs. HOU 1.1 2 1 0 0 0 .333 0.00
vs. PHI 3.1 2 1 1 0 0 .167 2.70
vs. PIT 4.0 3 1 1 0 1 .200 2.25
vs. SDG 1.1 2 2 2 2 0 .333 13.50
vs. STL 1.0 3 0 0 0 0 .600 0.00
vs. MIL 3.0 1 0 0 0 0 .100 0.00
vs. CHC 2.1 2 1 1 0 1 .250 3.86
vs. LAD 2.1 1 0 0 0 0 .125 0.00
vs. NYM 2.0 3 4 4 2 2 .333 18.00
vs. SFO 2.0 2 1 1 1 0 .286 4.50
vs. FLA 2.1 4 4 4 0 2 .364 15.43
vs. ARI 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
PETCO Park 1.1 2 2 2 2 0 .333 13.50
Shea Stadium 2.0 3 4 4 2 2 .333 18.00
Wrigley Field 1.0 2 1 1 0 1 .500 9.00
PNC Park 2.0 2 1 1 0 0 .250 4.50
Great American 11.1 8 6 5 0 1 .195 3.97
Busch Stadium 1.0 3 0 0 0 0 .600 0.00
Miller Park 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 .143 0.00
CitizensBankPark1.1 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00
Turner Field 0.2 1 2 2 0 1 .500 27.00
Dodger Stadium 2.1 1 0 0 0 0 .125 0.00
Dolphin Stadium 1.1 1 0 0 0 2 .200 0.00
AT&T Park 2.0 2 1 1 1 0 .286 4.50

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .195 / .496 AWAY: .277 / .887
VS. LEFT: .227 / .710 VS. RIGHT: .258 / .754

Home/Away - Stats
Johnny Cueto IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 74.2 7 7 47 42 16 .265 5.06
Home 45.0 36 20 18 9 12 .216 3.60
Away 23.2 33 24 21 5 8 .337 7.99

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. CLE 6.0 3 3 3 3 2 .136 4.50
vs. MIL 13.1 10 5 4 2 2 .213 2.70
vs. ATL 7.0 4 2 2 2 1 .167 2.57
vs. CHC 6.0 6 3 3 1 2 .261 4.50
vs. HOU 7.0 8 5 5 1 2 .286 6.43
vs. LAD 5.0 7 4 2 0 3 .350 3.60
vs. NYM 4.2 8 6 6 2 3 .381 11.57
vs. PIT 11.0 14 8 7 2 4 .311 5.73
vs. STL 1.2 8 7 6 0 1 .615 32.40
vs. ARI 7.0 1 1 1 1 0 .045 1.29

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Dodger Stadium 5.0 7 4 2 0 3 .350 3.60
Shea Stadium 4.2 8 6 6 2 3 .381 11.57
Miller Park 6.1 5 2 2 1 0 .227 2.84
PNC Park 6.0 5 5 5 2 1 .227 7.50
Great American 45.0 36 20 18 9 12 .216 3.60
Busch Stadium 1.2 8 7 6 0 1 .615 32.40

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .216 / .704 AWAY: .331 / .963
VS. LEFT: .244 / .789 VS. RIGHT: .280 / .834

Home/Away - Stats
Aaron Harang IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 94.0 105 48 45 14 20 .284 4.31
As reliever 4.0 2 0 0 0 1 .143 0.00
Home 46.0 45 20 19 7 10 .256 3.72
Away 42.2 49 20 19 5 10 .293 4.01

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. PHI 13.0 15 5 5 1 4 .283 3.46
vs. PIT 4.0 10 6 6 1 0 .526 13.50
vs. CLE 7.0 8 1 1 0 1 .276 1.29
vs. MIL 16.0 9 2 2 1 0 .164 1.13
vs. CHC 13.0 15 8 8 2 4 .288 5.54
vs. STL 6.0 7 3 3 0 3 .318 4.50
vs. SDG 9.1 12 5 5 2 3 .308 4.82
vs. SFO 7.1 8 3 2 0 1 .296 2.46
vs. FLA 7.0 7 4 4 3 2 .280 5.14
vs. ARI 6.0 3 3 2 2 2 .136 3.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Wrigley Field 6.0 8 5 5 2 2 .320 7.50
Dolphin Stadium 5.1 11 8 7 2 4 .407 11.81
AT&T Park 7.1 8 3 2 0 1 .296 2.46
Miller Park 8.0 5 1 1 0 0 .185 1.13
Great American 46.0 45 20 19 7 10 .256 3.72
CitizensBankPark6.0 9 3 3 1 1 .333 4.50
PETCO Park 9.1 12 5 5 2 3 .308 4.82
Busch Stadium 6.0 7 3 3 0 3 .318 4.50

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .256 / .753 AWAY: .309 / .852
VS. LEFT: .271 / .720 VS. RIGHT: .293 / .866

Home/Away - Stats
D. Weathers IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 21.2 24 11 10 4 13 .276 4.15
Home 10.2 11 8 7 3 7 .250 5.91
Away 11.0 13 3 3 1 6 .302 2.46

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. CHC 4.0 4 0 0 0 1 .250 0.00
vs. LAD -0.1 2 1 1 0 2 .667 27.00
vs. NYM 1.0 2 0 0 0 0 .400 0.00
vs. PHI 2.1 2 0 0 0 0 .250 0.00
vs. PIT 2.0 1 0 0 0 2 .125 0.00
vs. SDG 2.0 1 1 1 1 1 .167 4.50
vs. FLA 3.2 3 3 2 1 1 .214 4.91
vs. ARI 1.1 0 1 1 0 3 .000 6.75
vs. CLE 2.0 3 1 1 1 0 .375 4.50
vs. MIL 2.0 5 3 3 0 2 .500 13.50
vs. ATL 1.0 1 1 1 1 1 .200 9.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Dodger Stadium -0.1 2 1 1 0 2 .667 27.00
Wrigley Field 2.0 2 0 0 0 1 .250 0.00
Shea Stadium 1.0 2 0 0 0 0 .400 0.00
Dolphin Stadium 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 .143 0.00
Miller Park 1.1 3 1 1 0 0 .500 6.75
Great American 10.2 11 8 7 3 7 .250 5.91
CitizensBankPark1.1 1 0 0 0 0 .250 0.00
PETCO Park 2.0 1 1 1 1 1 .167 4.50
PNC Park 1.0 1 0 0 0 2 .250 0.00

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .250 / .876 AWAY: .302 / .842
VS. LEFT: .219 / .623 VS. RIGHT: .309 / .997


Home/Away - Stats
J. Affeldt IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 28.1 28 13 12 5 12 .257 3.81
Home 13.0 17 8 7 4 8 .315 4.85
Away 15.1 11 5 5 1 4 .200 2.94

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. CLE -0.1 3 2 2 0 0 .750 54.00
vs. ATL 2.2 5 3 3 0 3 .455 10.13
vs. CHC 4.1 4 1 1 0 1 .235 2.08
vs. HOU 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00
vs. LAD 4.2 4 1 1 1 1 .222 1.93
vs. NYM 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 .143 0.00
vs. PHI 3.0 3 1 1 1 1 .250 3.00
vs. PIT 3.0 4 4 4 3 1 .308 12.00
vs. STL 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00
vs. SDG 2.0 2 0 0 0 0 .286 0.00
vs. SFO 1.0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 0.00
vs. FLA 2.0 1 1 0 0 1 .143 0.00
vs. ARI 1.0 1 0 0 0 2 .333 0.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Wrigley Field 2.2 2 1 1 0 0 .200 3.38
Dodger Stadium 2.2 2 1 1 1 0 .200 3.38
Shea Stadium 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 .143 0.00
Dolphin Stadium 2.0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 0.00
Turner Field 1.0 3 3 3 0 1 .600 27.00
AT&T Park 1.0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 0.00
PNC Park -0.1 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00
Great American 13.0 17 8 7 4 8 .315 4.85
CitizensBankPark-0.1 1 0 0 0 0 .500 0.00
PETCO Park 2.0 2 0 0 0 0 .286 0.00
Busch Stadium 1.1 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .315 / .996 AWAY: .200 / .527
VS. LEFT: .295 / .872 VS. RIGHT: .231 / .687

Home/Away - Stats
Non-Active MLB
Kent Mercker IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Overall 13.2 13 5 5 1 8 .265 3.29
Home 8.1 4 1 1 1 2 .160 1.08
Away 5.1 9 4 4 0 6 .375 6.75

By Opponent IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
vs. MIL 2.1 0 0 0 0 1 .000 0.00
vs. ATL 2.1 3 1 1 0 3 .333 3.86
vs. CHC 1.0 2 1 1 0 0 .400 9.00
vs. HOU 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 .167 0.00
vs. LAD 1.0 1 0 0 0 0 .333 0.00
vs. PHI 1.1 1 1 1 1 1 .250 6.75
vs. PIT 1.0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 0.00
vs. SFO 1.0 2 0 0 0 1 .400 0.00
vs. ARI 1.0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 0.00
vs. STL 0.2 3 2 2 0 1 .750 27.00

By Stadium IP H R ER HR BB AVG ERA
Turner Field 1.1 2 1 1 0 3 .333 6.75
Miller Park 1.1 0 0 0 0 1 .000 0.00
Wrigley Field 1.0 2 1 1 0 0 .400 9.00
AT&T Park 1.0 2 0 0 0 1 .400 0.00
Great American 8.1 4 1 1 1 2 .160 1.08
Busch Stadium 0.2 3 2 2 0 1 .750 27.00

BA/OPS Home/Away
HOME: .160 / .502 AWAY: .375 / 1.000
VS. LEFT: .333 / .956 VS. RIGHT: .226 / .642



Indirectly contributing suspects - position defense
Catcher Fielding stats
NAME GS E FPCT RF ZR PB CERA
Paul Bako 42 3 .992 8.98 1.000 3 3.91
David Ross 17 2 .985 8.00 1.000 3 5.38
J. Valentin 5 0 1.000 9.37 1.000 1 5.40
Totals 5 5 .991 8.76 1.000 7 4.44

Third Basemen Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
Encarncion 9 .933 2.20 .777
Ryan Freel 1 .889 2.18 .571
Juan Castro 0 1.000 18.00 .800
J. Hairston Jr. 0 .000 0.00 .000
Andy Phillips 0 1.000 1.61 .667
Totals 10 .934 2.23 .763

First Basemen Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
Joey Votto 8 .982 8.90 .874
S. Hatteberg 1 .987 7.70 .909
J. Valentin 0 1.000 10.95 1.000
J. Keppinger 0 1.000 9.00 1.000
Totals 9 .984 8.76 .881

Second Basemen Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
B. Phillips 1 .996 4.67 .837
Juan Castro 0 1.000 13.50 1.000
J. Hairston Jr. 0 1.000 4.05 1.000
Ryan Freel 0 1.000 6.75 .833
Totals 1 .997 4.72 .843

Shortstop Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
J. Hairston Jr. 3 .958 3.60 .744
Paul Janish 2 .956 5.38 .829
J. Keppinger 1 .992 3.57 .806
Juan Castro 0 1.000 2.50 1.000
Totals 6 .976 3.77 .802

Right Fielder Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
K. Griffey Jr. 4 .958 1.70 .848
J. Hairston Jr. 0 1.000 1.89 1.000
Ryan Freel 0 1.000 3.48 1.000
Norris Hopper 0 1.000 2.57 .750
Jay Bruce 0 1.000 2.36 .917
Totals 4 .966 1.82 .861
Left Fielder Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
Adam Dunn 4 .962 1.88 .861
J. Hairston Jr. 0 1.000 .901 1.000
Ryan Freel 0 1.000 1.17 .857
Norris Hopper 0 1.000 3.18 1.000
Jay Bruce 0 .000 0.00 .000
Totals 4 .966 1.78. .867

Center Fielder Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
C. Patterson 2 .979 2.80 .928
J. Hairston Jr. 0 1.000 2.60 1.000
Ryan Freel 0 1.000 2.73 .865
Norris Hopper 0 1.000 1.57 1.000
Jay Bruce 0 1.000 2.03 .933
Totals 2 .988 2.64 .916

Pitcher Statistics
NAME E FPCT RF ZR
D. Weathers 1 .500 0.42 1.000
Mike Lincoln 1 .900 2.86 1.000
F. Cordero 1 .8001 1.30 1.000
Josh Fogg 1 .833 1.59 1.000
Matt Belisle 1 .875 2.12 .500
Homer Bailey 1 .750 4.26 1.000
Johnny Cueto 1 .944 2.05 .900
B. Arroyo 0 1.000 2.81 1.000
Aaron Harang 0 1.000 1.72 1.000
Kent Mercker 0 1.000 0.66 .000
J. Affeldt 0 1.000 2.86 1.000
Gary Majewski 0 1.000 2.70 1.000
Todd Coffey 0 1.000 3.52 1.000
E. Volquez 0 1.000 2.16 1.000
Bill Bray 0 1.000 1.04 1.000
Jared Burton 0 1.000 2.84 1.000
Danny Herrera 0 .0000 .00 .000
Totals 7 .950 2.12 .974

Spring~Fields
06-10-2008, 04:46 PM
I'd be interested in people breaking this down more precisely, if they have the information. Why this disparity?

Kc

I tried to look and find answers yesterday, though I looked at so much information, after awhile I could not see the forest for the trees.

I did see where several of the pitchers had had some of those blowout type of days that would boost their ERA skyward, but that does not answer the disparity question. It left me wondering what the teams truer ERA is without the extreme off day or inning by a given pitcher. Excluding a Fogg, Belisle, Coffey, Lincoln type days etc.

Kc61
06-10-2008, 05:44 PM
Kc

I tried to look and find answers yesterday, though I looked at so much information, after awhile I could not see the forest for the trees.

I did see where several of the pitchers had had some of those blowout type of days that would boost their ERA skyward, but that does not answer the disparity question. It left me wondering what the teams truer ERA is without the extreme off day or inning by a given pitcher. Excluding a Fogg, Belisle, Coffey, Lincoln type days etc.

Thanks for trying. Sometimes, when these kinds of disparities happen, there are a handfull of players whose numbers are dramatically affected by the home/road difference. With the Reds, a good sign is that the numbers of Cueto and Burton have been much better at home. Since these are young pitchers, we can reasonably expect that they will improve on the road. On the offensive side, Hairston's numbers are much better at home than on the road (BA .450 to .231), which could be important since he was the leadoff guy when he was in there.

I would also like to check out the team's defense home vs. road. I wonder if there's a big difference.

RedsManRick
06-10-2008, 07:31 PM
Are you guys trying to figure out why the Reds have such a poor record on the road so far this year, or figure out why the Reds are such a poor road team? They aren't the same question and trying to answer them has different implications.

I think the answer to the former is pretty obvious: as a team, they've hit and pitched like crap on the road. You can pretty easily pinpoint poor road performances by specific players and there you go.

The answer to the 2nd question is based on the presumption that the Reds road record so far is a fair representation of a skill called "ability to play good baseball on the road". Now, teams do tend to win more at home than they do on the road. It happens across sports and team quality. That's not in dispute. But the scale of that effect, as observed to date in the 2008 season for the Reds is off the charts.

The problem here, as is often the case, is the ridiculously small sample size. No amount of pouring through data in an academically rigorous manner will tell you that those poor performances are based on anything but random variation. It's not an answer you're likely comfortable with; we all like to have reasons to explain things. And while there might be an explanation, you won't find it in the on-the-field data. Not yet. Not for a long time. Single season variations in home/road splits, just like R/L are quite dubious, subject to wild fluctuations even over 100s of at bats.

Again that's not to say that the Reds aren't really a poor road team. There could be explanations ranging from poor accommodations, travel arrangements, etc. However, no examination of the game data will reveal it. It's important to differentiate between what we've observed so far (our sample) and the underlying condition we're trying to measure/establish. The Reds current road record is nothing but a bit of evidence suggesting an underlying condition, a fundamental inability to play well on the road, bit it is not the condition itself. We've observed so few games that it is quite easily possible that the Reds are a .500 road team who have gotten just 11 heads in 35 flips instead of the "expected" 17 or 18. No amount of data teasing can tell us either way.

UKFlounder
06-10-2008, 09:42 PM
Some thoughts from Jayson Stark on this topic in general

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3435041&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab1pos1


Some things in life don't make a whole lot of sense. And by that, we don't mean just the ongoing fame and fortune of Whoopi Goldberg.

We mean stuff like this:

The Braves are 25-11 at home -- but 7-21 on the road. That's a gap of .444 winning-percentage points, which would be the biggest home/road discrepancy in modern baseball history if it holds up all year.

The Red Sox are 26-6 at home -- but 14-20 on the road. That's a gap of .401 percentage points, which would be the largest home/road split in American League history.

Biggest Home/Road ERA Disparities
Team Home Road
Rays 2.81 5.00
Pirates 3.76 5.99
Twins 3.63 5.51
Brewers 3.27 5.02
Padres 3.41 5.01

Tampa Bay has the best ERA in baseball at home (2.81) -- but the same pitchers have a 5.00 ERA when they leave the scenic state of Florida.

The Tigers have a .287 batting average at home, the third-best in the American League -- but the same hitters turn into an entire roster full of Humberto Cotas on the road (where their team average is .235).

And we could cite numbers like that for another hour -- in a season in which just three teams in the entire sport (Angels, Phillies, Cardinals) have a winning record away from home. But instead, let's just ask:

What the heck is up with that?

Now granted, if you take a long, hard look at baseball -- for which Fenway Park doesn't seem as if it could possibly have been designed to house the same sport as Tropicana Field -- you could certainly understand why home teams would have a gigantic advantage.

Except that it's never really worked out that way.

Until this year.

This year, road teams went into Monday with a combined record of 401-511. That works out to a mind-boggling winning percentage of just .421. If that lasts all season, we'll see the lowest winning percentage by road teams (and, by a remarkable coincidence, the highest by home teams) since 1931, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

So we ask again: Why? We've been collecting theories from players, GMs and other great baseball minds. Now let's examine whether they're real or folklore:

1. No more greenies
You never want to explain anything in baseball by attributing it to the pharmaceuticals industry. But face it: This is one development that's impossible to ignore.

"There's an 800-pound gorilla in every clubhouse, and it's greenies and steroids," one GM said. "The travel these days wears everyone out. Day games after night games. Coast-to-coast trips. How do you think these guys got through it before? Greenies have been in the game for probably 50 to 60 years. So now you take them away, and you don't think it takes a toll on teams when they're traveling?"

In a world in which these players change time zones as regularly as they change wrist bands, this is as logical a theory as we've heard. But why would it be showing up this year? Didn't baseball's ban on amphetamines actually take effect last year?

"Because I don't think guys were totally off greenies last year," the same GM said. "But this year, they've scared the living hell out of these guys. They know they're checking. They know the tests could come any time. They know Major League Baseball is trying to play gotcha. So what doctor wants to sign his name to this stuff now? Even if these guys want to use it now, where are they going to get it and who are they going to get it from?"

Good question. Valid question. And it makes as much sense as any theory out there.

Biggest Home/Road OPS Disparities
Team Home Road
Cubs .887 .720
Tigers .832 .671
D-backs .833 .675
Astros .824 .675
Braves .826 .720

2. The young and the winless
The next most prevalent theory we've heard is another one that makes sense in a lot of ways: Young teams have more trouble winning on the road than veteran teams.

It's a theory that works this year in particular because, when you compare the sport this season to the sport in seasons past, not much is different -- except this:

Never in recent history have more teams decided it was time to go young.

So the Joey Vottos, Blake DeWitts and Geovany Sotos of the world are getting their shot -- while the Kenny Loftons and Sammy Sosas and Mike Piazzas can't get a job.

But how does that apply to this particular topic? Hey, use your imagination.

The official explanation, as laid out by one GM, is that young players have a tougher time establishing a "routine" on the road and then sticking to it. The unofficial explanation is, well, that young players sometimes have other agendas on the road beyond, say, getting their proper rest.

We heard that theory a lot two years ago, when one of the youngest clubs in the big leagues (Tampa Bay) went 3-33 on the road after July 1. But does it work this year?

Sure -- until you examine the facts.

We looked at the five youngest teams in baseball -- the Diamondbacks, A's, Twins, Marlins and Rangers. We compared them to the five oldest teams in baseball -- the Astros, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox and Cubs.

Oops. The five youngest teams had a higher road winning percentage through Sunday (.453) than the five oldest teams (.426). And one of the AL's worst road records belonged to its oldest team (Boston) while one of its youngest teams (the Angels) had the best road record in the whole darned sport (21-12).

So while we hate it when the facts get in the way of a good theory, it looks like it happened to this one.

3. There's no place like home
So maybe we're attacking this backward. Maybe this isn't about the road teams at all. Maybe it's really about the home teams.

After all, why wouldn't the Red Sox (26-6) and Cubs (26-8) have the best home records in each league, for instance, considering the funky parks they play in?

"We should be winning at Wrigley," said the Cubs' Mark DeRosa. "Every single day, we have over 40,000 fans cheering us on, rain or shine. Wrigley Field should be the definition of home-field advantage."

Biggest Home/Road Batting Avg. Disparities
Team Home Road
D-backs .285 .214
Cubs .309 .254
Tigers .287 .235
Braves .298 .247
Astros .288 .245

And it should. But (A) it hasn't always been -- in part due to issues that weren't the fault of Wrigley, its ever-impassioned occupants or its storied crop of ivy. And (B) whether Wrigley has a special magic or not, how would it help us explain the home record of the rest of the sport?

"Maybe teams are adjusting the fields to the strength of their clubs," suggested Astros pitcher Brian Moehler. "For years, Wrigley Field used to have high grass in the infield. Now the grass is lower. I can't speak for the Cubs, but maybe that plays into the strengths of their infielders."

Hmmm. We have no doubt that sort of thing goes on. We also agree that it influences a given game here and there, or a given team here and there. But can it possibly explain home-team records across the sport, or account for a dramatic difference between this year or last year? Most of the other folks we polled didn't think so.

"I have always thought," said White Sox GM Kenny Williams, "that outside of Boston, New York and Minnesota -- yes, Minnesota, due to the House of Horror Dome -- there are no great advantages for home teams in baseball."

"The Braves are 25-11 at home," another AL executive said. "And there is nothing about that park or those fans that would give them an advantage."

Yeah, we're afraid so. If there were something about the increasingly quirky ballparks that now dot our landscape that would give the home team a special edge, it would have shown up before this year. Wouldn't it? We would have seen home winning percentages spiking upward and creeping toward history over the past 10 years. Wouldn't we?

Sure we would. But that isn't what's been happening. As The Elias Sports Bureau's Steve Hirdt told our buddy Buster Olney recently, home winning percentages have held steady for years. And only once in the 76 seasons since 1931 has there been any other season in which road win percentage dipped below even .430. That was in 1978, when it hit .427.

So compelling as it might be to theorize that home is where the heart -- and the advantage -- is, there's not a ballpark-related reason on earth it should be a massively bigger advantage this season than last season, the season before or the 20 before that.

4. It's a different game
All right, here's a theory nobody can deny: Most teams employ different strategy when they play at home than when they play on the road. The rules don't just allow it, they practically dictate it.

"Some of it must be bullpen [use]," suggested Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "At home, managers are using closers and set-up guys in tie games more. It's hard to do that on the road."

So if home teams are using their best relief pitchers more often at home than on the road, that could help explain this. Possibly.

To check this out, we looked at four prominent closers -- Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Francona's closer, Jonathan Papelbon. Turned out that all but Rivera have pitched more often at home than on the road. Then again, their teams have better records at home than on the road. So put that in the "effect" column, not the "cause" column.

Some of it must be bullpen [use]. At home, managers are using closers and set-up guys in tie games more. It's hard to do that on the road.
--Red Sox manager Terry Francona on the disparity of home and road records

Then we looked at how many tie games they'd pitched in. Turned out they entered a total of 11 tie games at home, to just four on the road. Multiply that across the sport, and theoretically, closers would have pitched in somewhere around 50 more tie games at home than away from home.

So we're definitely onto something here -- except for one thing:

This is nothing new.

It might explain, to some small degree, why home teams have a better record than road teams. But it doesn't explain, best we can tell, why that record is so much better than last year. Or any other year since the dawn of modern relief pitching. Which leaves us one final conclusion

5. It's just one of those random years
We surveyed 15 people in baseball for this column. They tossed out lots of fun theories. Besides the ones named above, the others included:

Lousy scheduling.

Crummy weather in the northern half of our great land.

More parity/mediocrity, creating a greater edge for the home teams.

And even such amusing, tongue-in-cheek suggestions as "food in the visiting clubhouses is becoming healthier," which "may have shaken many teams' routines."

But by far the most popular theory was one we hate to admit to, but also the one most likely to apply:

It's a fluke.

"It's a statistical anomaly," the Astros' Brad Ausmus said.

"It's a statistic waiting to be corrected in the second half," Nationals GM Jim Bowden said.

"I'm not sure there is a magic bullet," Pirates GM Neal Huntingdon said.

And we've come to this conclusion: They're right. According to ESPN's research department, there have been four other seasons since 1931 when home teams actually had a higher winning percentage over the first two months than they did this year. That record then declined over the rest of the season in every one of those years.

Why? "Because this game will always prove that it's completely unpredictable," Padres pitcher Randy Wolf said. "Just when you think you've seen it all or figured it out, it will throw something completely unusual at you."

And friends, it looks as if baseball has done it again -- unless The No Greenie Effect is more powerful than anyone ever realized.