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View Full Version : Keppinger Back This Weekend?



reds44
06-09-2008, 04:31 PM
From Fay:


Jeff Keppinger will DH and Norris Hopper will play in the outfield tonight for the Sarasota Reds. That begins their official rehab assignment. The Florida State League All-Star Break is this week end. My guess is Keppinger plays through Thursday and then get activated. Hopper will probably need more time since he's been out of action so long.

Josh Fogg will start for Sarasota Tuesday or Wednesday

It would be great to get Keppinger into the leadoff spot and Hairston would strengthen the teams bench.

Joseph
06-09-2008, 04:35 PM
You wonder if EE won't see some pine time with Kepp playing third.

Always Red
06-09-2008, 04:37 PM
From Fay:

It would be great to get Keppinger into the leadoff spot and Hairston would strengthen the teams bench.

Do you think Kepp will pick up right where he left off?

I hope he does, but if I were a betting man...

Always Red
06-09-2008, 04:37 PM
You wonder if EE won't see some pine time with Kepp playing third.

Makes me shudder to think of the lack of range with Kepp at 3B and Hairston at SS.

flyer85
06-09-2008, 04:41 PM
You wonder if EE won't see some pine time with Kepp playing third.very possible.

RedsManRick
06-09-2008, 04:53 PM
I really am not a big fan of the idea of Keppinger playing over EE. Clearly he hasn't been hitting up to snuff, but I'm not sure I see how a benching/platoon would help resolve that. But what it would do is slow his development, allow us to gather less information about his future ceiling, and generally undermine our long term planning. The benefit, clearly, is that Keppinger likely gives us a better chance to win games today. But I'm not sure that 50 points of OPS merits the downside.

It's akin to giving Josh Fogg starts instead of a struggling Matt Belisle, perhaps a little higher up on the ability scale, but conceptually similar.

fearofpopvol1
06-09-2008, 04:53 PM
Wow, that's a pretty quick return for Keppinger if so. I have no problem with Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B while his bat remains hot. EdE simply has been horrible at the plate the last 6 weeks.

kaldaniels
06-09-2008, 04:55 PM
Wow, that's a pretty quick return for Keppinger if so. I have no problem with Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B while his bat remains hot. EdE simply has been horrible at the plate the last 6 weeks.

I know it seems like yesterday he got hurt...but it was back on May 13 and they did say 4-6 weeks. Kepp/Bruce at the top of the order will be nice.

Heath
06-09-2008, 05:01 PM
Well, with Keppinger coming back, that should end the days of Corey Patterson wearing a Cincinnati uniform.

BRM
06-09-2008, 05:03 PM
Well, with Keppinger coming back, that should end the days of Corey Patterson wearing a Cincinnati uniform.

It will most likely mean Janish goes back to Louisville.

flyer85
06-09-2008, 05:04 PM
that should end the days of Corey Patterson wearing a Cincinnati uniform.... and also a silver bullet. :)

reds44
06-09-2008, 05:04 PM
Well, with Keppinger coming back, that should end the days of Corey Patterson wearing a Cincinnati uniform.
That should already have happend with the way Dickerson is hitting the ball in Louisville.

Kc61
06-09-2008, 05:07 PM
I really am not a big fan of the idea of Keppinger playing over EE. Clearly he hasn't been hitting up to snuff, but I'm not sure I see how a benching/platoon would help resolve that. But what it would do is slow his development, allow us to gather less information about his future ceiling, and generally undermine our long term planning. The benefit, clearly, is that Keppinger likely gives us a better chance to win games today. But I'm not sure that 50 points of OPS merits the downside.

It's akin to giving Josh Fogg starts instead of a struggling Matt Belisle, perhaps a little higher up on the ability scale, but conceptually similar.


I think the idea would be to replace a .233 BA with a .324 BA. Pretty simple calculation.

Edwin has 1,504 total plate appearances in the major leagues. The question is whether that's enough information gathering.

fearofpopvol1
06-09-2008, 05:25 PM
I know it seems like yesterday he got hurt...but it was back on May 13 and they did say 4-6 weeks. Kepp/Bruce at the top of the order will be nice.

I'm totally aware, but many were speculating 6 weeks minimum...8 weeks was likely. So the fact that he is probably going to be back in 4 weeks is pretty amazing.


I really am not a big fan of the idea of Keppinger playing over EE. Clearly he hasn't been hitting up to snuff, but I'm not sure I see how a benching/platoon would help resolve that. But what it would do is slow his development, allow us to gather less information about his future ceiling, and generally undermine our long term planning. The benefit, clearly, is that Keppinger likely gives us a better chance to win games today. But I'm not sure that 50 points of OPS merits the downside.

It's akin to giving Josh Fogg starts instead of a struggling Matt Belisle, perhaps a little higher up on the ability scale, but conceptually similar.

But Rick, at what point is enough enough? I'm not naive here, the Reds have almost not chance of competing this year, but I feel like EdE's leash has been too long. Maybe sitting him some and letting someone else play (and actually perform) might send him a message that he needs to work harder at the plate. His popup rate is very alarming.

membengal
06-09-2008, 05:25 PM
Vacationing in Sarasota this week, I will try to swing over there and catch a game.

Benihana
06-09-2008, 05:26 PM
I'd like to see Kepp at SS with Hairston as the supersub. I would not bench EE. Regardless, it will be nice to have Kepp back at the top of the lineup.

Will M
06-09-2008, 05:38 PM
I think the idea would be to replace a .233 BA with a .324 BA. Pretty simple calculation.

Edwin has 1,504 total plate appearances in the major leagues. The question is whether that's enough information gathering.

agree

i am not a fan of EE. his bat is ok. very streaky but overall ok. his defense doesn't cut it at 3B. imo i have seen enough, time to move on. especially since he will start getting arbitration. the next time he gets hot shop him

TRF
06-09-2008, 05:40 PM
Wow, that's a pretty quick return for Keppinger if so. I have no problem with Kepp at SS and Hairston at 3B while his bat remains hot. EdE simply has been horrible at the plate the last 6 weeks.

Last 7 days, 1.058 OPS. Perhaps he's coming out of it.

RedsManRick
06-09-2008, 05:40 PM
I think the idea would be to replace a .233 BA with a .324 BA. Pretty simple calculation.

Edwin has 1,504 total plate appearances in the major leagues. The question is whether that's enough information gathering.

He's 25 and has a career line of .267/.343/.448. If you want to cite his career experience as a case against him, you should include it in your comparison to Keppinger.

What's done this year is done. I'm more interested in what the guy is likely to do moving forward. And I'd bet willing to bet that the rest of his 2008 looks more like his career line than it does his start to 2008.

That said, your batting average based argument will probably hold great sway with Baker.

membengal
06-09-2008, 05:46 PM
Raining sideways here right now, with a severe thunderstorm warning. Large shield of rain beyond that too...Kepp may have to wait out a delay tonight.

fearofpopvol1
06-09-2008, 05:54 PM
Last 7 days, 1.058 OPS. Perhaps he's coming out of it.

Good point. He'll have at least a few more days this week and I'm assuming Kepp will be "eased in" so we'll see what happens over the next week.

Far East
06-09-2008, 05:56 PM
... his defense doesn't cut it at 3B. imo i have seen enough, time to move on. especially since he will start getting arbitration. the next time he gets hot shop him
I admire his defense more than his bat. Almost no grounders, liners, pops get by him; I think he'll solve the throwing issue.

IMHO, at bat he fails to learn from all of his pop ups and weak grounders. He fails to adjust to the pitching: he still tries to pull almost everything, particularly the outside corner stuff that he could/should be driving to the right-center gap -- like he did in '07 ST when he was hitting 3rd in the lineup a lot.

He probably still tries to jerk everything because in about one of every 50 or so ABs he has hooked one of those out of the park.

I'd rather see him go with the pitch like Votto and Bruce do. But then, that's not likely to produce the big fly or the big contract.

Will M
06-09-2008, 06:01 PM
I admire his defense more than his bat. Almost no grounders, liners, pops get by him; I think he'll solve the throwing issue.

IMHO, at bat he fails to learn from all of his pop ups and weak grounders. He fails to adjust to the pitching: he still tries to pull almost everything, particularly the outside corner stuff that he could/should be driving to the right-center gap -- like he did in '07 ST when he was hitting 3rd in the lineup a lot.

He probably still tries to jerk everything because in about one of every 50 or so ABs he has hooked one of those out of the park.

I'd rather see him go with the pitch like Votto and Bruce do. But then, that's not likely to produce the big fly or the big contract.

1. how long do we wait for him to solve the throwing issue. it has been 3 years

2. agree with you on his bat. he does pull everything yet he doesn't have the power of a Dunn. so even when he hits it good it is often a double not a HR.
if he went to right center more often he would be a much better hitter

reds44
06-09-2008, 06:15 PM
Much like his bat, EE's defense is inconsistent. The talent is clearly there, but he just hasn't put everything together. If you want to give up on him, you are going to have to present a better option than Jerry Hairston Jr. At age 25, he still has plenty of time to put it all together.

RedsManRick
06-09-2008, 06:20 PM
Much like his bat, EE's defense is inconsistent. The talent is clearly there, but he just hasn't put everything together. If you want to give up on him, you are going to have to present a better option than Jerry Hairston Jr. At age 25, he still has plenty of time to put it all together.

Good point. An argument for Keppinger over EE at 3B is an argument for Hairston or Janish at SS over EE at 3B. Even if you can make the Keppinger case, the other two are pretty much impossible. If EE is still OPSing .750 when AGone is healthy, then there's a real conversation to be had, but that hardly seems imminent.

reds44
06-09-2008, 06:22 PM
Good point. An argument for Keppinger over EE at 3B is an argument for Hairston or Janish at SS over EE at 3B. Even if you can make the Keppinger case, the other two are pretty much impossible. If EE is still OPSing .750 when AGone is healthy, then there's a real conversation to be had, but that hardly seems imminent.
Exactly. This is a non conversation right now.

Kc61
06-09-2008, 06:23 PM
He's 25 and has a career line of .267/.343/.448. If you want to cite his career experience as a case against him, you should include it in your comparison to Keppinger.

What's done this year is done. I'm more interested in what the guy is likely to do moving forward. And I'd bet willing to bet that the rest of his 2008 looks more like his career line than it does his start to 2008.

That said, your batting average based argument will probably hold great sway with Baker.


Your point was that it was worthwhile perhaps to keep EE in there as a way to judge his performance over a lot of at bats. My point is that he has already had those at bats. I'm not sure a bell will go off at this point and make him a different player. I know his age, I've followed his career closely, and it's hard for me to see a sudden vast improvement.

I don't think Keppinger is an answer at third base, although for this year he's produced more than EE and is steadier in the field, although less spectacular.

The numbers you list add up to a .791 OPS. I would take the view that even that overstates things because EE was very hot in early 2006 and since the middle of that year has been very spotty. I maintain that his numbers were boosted at the end of 2007 when the Reds were out of contention and many of the games were extremely low pressure. Still, they do count, obviously.

He's a talented guy and is still young but it's not like he's Paul Janish in terms of opportunity. He's had a good opportunity and I'm getting a bit concerned. I root for EE and really hope he turns it around. Some players bloom late, even in their 30s sometimes.

All that having been said, I don't think Dusty will play Keppinger at third if EE is on the team. EE will play out the year at third and Kepp will play short. I think we may see Hairston playing in the outfield against lefties, with Griffey's knee hurting him and in need of rest. Griff should be a platoon guy at this point, it is in his own best interests.

reds44
06-09-2008, 06:25 PM
Your point was that it was worthwhile perhaps to keep EE in there as a way to judge his performance over a lot of at bats. My point is that he has already had those at bats. I'm not sure a bell will go off at this point and make him a different player. I know his age, I've followed his career closely, and it's hard for me to see a sudden vast improvement.

I don't think Keppinger is an answer at third base, although for this year he's produced more than EE and is steadier in the field, although less spectacular.

The numbers you list add up to a .791 OPS. I would take the view that even that overstates things because EE was very hot in early 2006 and since the middle of that year has been very spotty. I maintain that his numbers were boosted at the end of 2007 when the Reds were out of contention and many of the games were extremely low pressure. Still, they do count, obviously.

He's a talented guy and is still young but it's not like he's Paul Janish in terms of opportunity. He's had a good opportunity and I'm getting a bit concerned.

All that having been said, I don't think Dusty will play Keppinger at third if EE is on the team. EE will play out the year at third and Kepp will play short. I think we may see Hairston playing in the outfield against lefties, with Griffey's knee hurting him and in need of rest. Griff should be a platoon guy at this point, it is in his own best interests.
Or you could take the opposite view that his recent struggles have brought his numbers down. It's not like the Reds have played in a lot of high pressure games in, I don't know, the last decade.

RedsManRick
06-09-2008, 06:38 PM
Your point was that it was worthwhile perhaps to keep EE in there as a way to judge his performance over a lot of at bats. My point is that he has already had those at bats. I'm not sure a bell will go off at this point and make him a different player. I know his age, I've followed his career closely, and it's hard for me to see a sudden vast improvement.

It's not really fair to focus on his struggles and suggest the hot streaks were the deviations and more than the other way around. The bottom line is we have a 25 year old 3B who has been league average offensively and slightly below (but improving) defensively.



Year ASB BA OBP SLG OPS
2005 Post .233 .305 .451 .756
2006 Pre .323 .419 .526 .945
2006 Post .234 .301 .425 .726
2007 Pre .270 .353 .391 .744
2007 Post .309 .360 .488 .847
2008 Pre .233 .317 .433 .749

So far, he's had 2 above average halves and 3.5 below average halves. The experience counts, you're right. But I don't think we should hold it against him. I take the position that most 25 year olds are on their way up, even if they hit bumps in the road. It's one thing to interrupt that journey to replace him with a significantly better player. However, Keppinger is a lateral move unless you project him to maintain his .749 OPS. And if you project a continued .749 OPS, I'd love to know what you know that scouts and projection systems don't. I wouldn't stick with EE forever, but I don't see the benefit of Keppinger short term outweighing he potential significant upside of EE long term.