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44Magnum
06-13-2008, 11:59 AM
Not to mention that he gives up numerous run per year with his horrible defense!

The Reds must let Dunn walk or trade him this year. How can anyone believe he deserves a mega-deal?

Blue
06-13-2008, 12:26 PM
Has this issue ever been addressed before? :rolleyes:

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 12:41 PM
His OBP is almost .400 and his OPS is about .900. I was once a longtime Adam Dunn basher, hater, whatever you call it. Once I finally let go and realized he is what he is and is going to give you 40+bombs, OBP around .385 I have began to realize he is better than I thought. Batting average is the most overrated stat in baseball. They get is to score runs, how do you score runs, first you get on base. Batting average is accounted for in OBP. 2nd you need to get the runners on base in to score.

Dunn currently has gotten 26 rbi in 54 ab's with RISP while batting .222. His BA is the same with RISP and nobody on. This tells one thing, pitchers are afraid of him and pitch him selectively with first base empty. This explains the high OBP and low batting average. His batting average with runners on, which would include every situation with a RISP and runner on first is .240 with an OBP of .406, he gets more pitches to hit.

He is also a career .278 hitter out of the 2 spot. Which may be concluded to this being the only time he has a feared hitter batting behind him. Im sure it was alway Jr behind him in the 3 spot. Say what u want about Griffey, ppl still fear him.

I say we try to get Dunn for 4yrs 50-55 million range, but let's not overpay and strap us financially.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 12:41 PM
Right. Because batting average is what the Reds pay him for. Ignore that OPS of over .900. Ignore the 4 years of 40 HR, 100 R, 100 RBI, OPS over .850.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 12:42 PM
I say we try to get Dunn for 4yrs 50-55 million range, but let's not overpay and strap us financially.


We will never get Dunn for that amount. It'll be closer to 4-years $60-65 million.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 12:53 PM
The Reds must let Dunn walk or trade him this year. How can anyone believe he deserves a mega-deal?

Ok, look who is batting behind Adam Dunn??????????????

The guy doesn't get any pitches to hit... They pitch around him, and therefore with his great EYE, he gets a ton of Walks, but the few tiny not so many pitches that are hittable, he hits out of the Park... He has Zero Protection in the lineup!

Why don't you start another Thread for Edwin, Mr .172

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 01:10 PM
I think it'll be interesting to see what his market value is once he is out there. It is going to depend a lot on teams philosophy and their ball park. I could see him being anywhere from 10 -18 million. Hopefully he will want to ust stay put here.

thorn
06-13-2008, 01:19 PM
His OBP is almost .400 and his OPS is about .900. I was once a longtime Adam Dunn basher, hater, whatever you call it. Once I finally let go and realized he is what he is and is going to give you 40+bombs, OBP around .385 I have began to realize he is better than I thought. Batting average is the most overrated stat in baseball. They get is to score runs, how do you score runs, first you get on base. Batting average is accounted for in OBP. 2nd you need to get the runners on base in to score.

Dunn currently has gotten 26 rbi in 54 ab's with RISP while batting .222. His BA is the same with RISP and nobody on. This tells one thing, pitchers are afraid of him and pitch him selectively with first base empty. This explains the high OBP and low batting average. His batting average with runners on, which would include every situation with a RISP and runner on first is .240 with an OBP of .406, he gets more pitches to hit.

He is also a career .278 hitter out of the 2 spot. Which may be concluded to this being the only time he has a feared hitter batting behind him. Im sure it was alway Jr behind him in the 3 spot. Say what u want about Griffey, ppl still fear him.

I say we try to get Dunn for 4yrs 50-55 million range, but let's not overpay and strap us financially.

There are too many young players comming up for the Reds to make such a hugh commitment to Dunn. They need to throw that money at some starters instead.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 01:31 PM
They need to throw that money at some starters instead.

Who? Remember Eric Milton?

thorn
06-13-2008, 01:46 PM
Who? Remember Eric Milton?

So you don't think we should try and sign FA pitchers in the future because of Milton?

Hondo
06-13-2008, 01:48 PM
There are too many young players comming up for the Reds to make such a hugh commitment to Dunn. They need to throw that money at some starters instead.

What are you talking about?

Ok, say we save 15 Million Dollars a year with not signing Dunn...

What are you going to do, or better yet, who are you going to get?

Weathers 3.3 Million, Patterson 3 Million, Stanton 3 Million, Ross 2.525 Million, Hatteberg 1.85 Million... All players who shouldn't be here next year...

There's a chunk of Change right there...

Not too mention: Alex Gonzalez 4.6 Million (A joke for his Play and Offense)
Ryan Freel 3 Million (Great guy but not worth 3 Million)

Also, Griffey won't be eating 8.3 Million, so his Salary is off the Books...

This team was constructed very stupidly... By Krivisky...

Even though he traded for Volquez...

What is the best way to go???? You just let us know...

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 01:49 PM
So you don't think we should try and sign FA pitchers in the future because of Milton?

Who is out there that is worth the money? You're going to have to overpay a ton in order to get a pitcher to come to Cincinnati and pitch in that bandbox, and you are going to end up paying a pitcher with Milton like talent a Santana like contract. Slight exaggeration, but free agent pitching is not the answer. Trading and internal development are the two best options for pitching for the Reds.

thorn
06-13-2008, 02:00 PM
FA pitchers alone is not the answer, but some are and continuing to build this team around the offense has gotten us NOWHERE despite how great the individual talent may be. Pitching and Defense should be a target spending area this offseason, even if it's sign and trade type of deals. We have a lot of good young talent on the offense side for the next several years to build around. Who? How about Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Keppinger, EE (If we keep him) and thats not including the talent comming up this year or next in Valaika, Frazier, Cumberland, Alonso. You put top notch pitching with that young offense and yes, we have a team capable of winning. If we just keep running out washed up pitchers, crappy bullpens etc, it won't matter how good our offense is, it won't WIN. Winning is more important than any individual accomplishments, period.

durl
06-13-2008, 02:05 PM
Not to mention that he gives up numerous run per year with his horrible defense!

How many runs does he give up each season with his 8 errors per season average over the past 6 years or so? And what is the scoring impact on the W/L record over 162 games with those 8 errors?

I mean, if we're going to give up one of the top RBI, HR, and Runs Scored men in all of baseball over the past 4-5 years, I would think that 8 errors a year isn't much of a justification. We should accurately quantify how many runs he allows versus what he scores. A large chunk of offense is at stake.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 02:06 PM
FA pitchers alone is not the answer, but some are and continuing to build this team around the offense has gotten us NOWHERE despite how great the individual talent may be. Pitching and Defense should be a target spending area this offseason, even if it's sign and trade type of deals. We have a lot of good young talent on the offense side for the next several years to build around. Who? How about Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Keppinger, EE (If we keep him) and thats not including the talent comming up this year or next in Valaika, Frazier, Cumberland, Alonso. You put top notch pitching with that young offense and yes, we have a team capable of winning. If we just keep running out washed up pitchers, crappy bullpens etc, it won't matter how good our offense is, it won't WIN. Winning is more important than any individual accomplishments, period.

So FA pitchers alone is not the answer, but Pitching and Defense should be the target spending area this offseason...???

Did you read what you posted?

thorn
06-13-2008, 02:10 PM
Hondo, can you comprehend what I am trying to say? If so, tell me what you think I just said in the previous post.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 02:11 PM
His OBP is almost .400 and his OPS is about .900. I was once a longtime Adam Dunn basher, hater, whatever you call it. Once I finally let go and realized he is what he is and is going to give you 40+bombs, OBP around .385 I have began to realize he is better than I thought. Batting average is the most overrated stat in baseball. They get is to score runs, how do you score runs, first you get on base. Batting average is accounted for in OBP. 2nd you need to get the runners on base in to score.

Dunn currently has gotten 26 rbi in 54 ab's with RISP while batting .222. His BA is the same with RISP and nobody on. This tells one thing, pitchers are afraid of him and pitch him selectively with first base empty. This explains the high OBP and low batting average. His batting average with runners on, which would include every situation with a RISP and runner on first is .240 with an OBP of .406, he gets more pitches to hit.

He is also a career .278 hitter out of the 2 spot. Which may be concluded to this being the only time he has a feared hitter batting behind him. Im sure it was alway Jr behind him in the 3 spot. Say what u want about Griffey, ppl still fear him.

I say we try to get Dunn for 4yrs 50-55 million range, but let's not overpay and strap us financially.

I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:16 PM
Go after starters? Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson, that is 7 right there who can fill 5 spots. 5 of those are young and talented. Do you really want to spend that 12 million or so one a Derek Lowe? 20 million on Sabathia? Or severely overpay for A.J. Burnett's inconsistencies?

We lose a lot of the books and it would be nice to have 1 thumper in the heart of a very talented young lineup. And as far as his defense, you have to admit he has improved it dramatically, i dont cringe near as much thinking he will drop any given fly ball.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 02:18 PM
Hondo, can you comprehend what I am trying to say? If so, tell me what you think I just said in the previous post.

I comprehend very well... Your point was that Starting Pitching Alone wasn't the answer...

But it was a pointless point, as you mentioned Pitching and Defense was what we needed... So, you included Pitching in your argument... I figured you were going to come with morre than "Pitching & Defense"... I have to give you cred though, you didn't put 1/5 of the Payroll in there... Or did you? And you didn't address anything I was asking about with all the money saving this team will have with the Contracts dropping????

Even though there are some raises coming for players...

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:19 PM
I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

Statistics don't lie. They are a measure of production. By watching Dunn, many Reds fans get frustrated by his strikeouts and inability to hit the ball the opposite way. That frustration makes you ignore the good things he does. How is he unintelligent? His defense has certainly improved to the point where he is an adequate LF. He is streaky, yes, but please fill me in on how you plan on replacing 100 runs, 100 RBI, 40 HR's, and a .900 OPS?

It's not Dunn's fault that Dusty is miserable at constructing lineups. Put Dunn at the top of the order and you will realize how valuable he is to this team.

Never has a guy done so much and gotten so little love for it than Adam Dunn.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:24 PM
I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

So basically you are saying walks are not important, getting on base is not important. A .300 BA and a .330obp is better than a .230ba and a .400 obp. Getting on base and driving in runs is the key to baseball offensively. I am not a sabermetric fellow and havent even posted them in my argument.

And you win by scoring more runs than the other team. Right now we have 2 below average to average defensive outfielders, one of those (griffey) will most likely be gone. Jay Bruce will be a good right fielder, get a solid defender and center and Dunn's defense isn't a big deal and definitely doesn't outweigh his offense. What makes Dunn so inconsistent and not fundamentally sound. He is a discplined hitter, doesn't typically make bad baserunning mistakes (Freel) and seems like a good teammate. Not to mention, he has some really consistent career numbers.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 02:25 PM
Statistics don't lie. They are a measure of production. By watching Dunn, many Reds fans get frustrated by his strikeouts and inability to hit the ball the opposite way. That frustration makes you ignore the good things he does. How is he unintelligent? His defense has certainly improved to the point where he is an adequate LF. He is streaky, yes, but please fill me in on how you plan on replacing 100 runs, 100 RBI, 40 HR's, and a .900 OPS?

It's not Dunn's fault that Dusty is miserable at constructing lineups. Put Dunn at the top of the order and you will realize how valuable he is to this team.

Never has a guy done so much and gotten so little love for it than Adam Dunn.

Homer, where would this team be without his 16 Homers 41 RBI, 56 BB, and 36 runs...

I mean look at his runs... The guys hitting behind him have been pathetic... Save for Votto... But the real culprit has been Edwin!

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:25 PM
And also Nuxhall, i want to know you response to Dunn never having a hitter behind him, and how he produces in the 2 spot with Griffey behind him.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 02:27 PM
Statistics don't lie.

For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:29 PM
Rob Deer and Dave Kingman are 2 of the more famous "all or nothing" hitters. They have similar career averages as done, but OBP's of .320 and .300, way lower than .380. He does more than hit homeruns.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:30 PM
Homer, where would this team be without his 16 Homers 41 RBI, 56 BB, and 36 runs...

I mean look at his runs... The guys hitting behind him have been pathetic... Save for Votto... But the real culprit has been Edwin!

Not sure I get what you are saying. Are you agreeing with me that Dusty is to blame for batting him in the 5 hole?

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:33 PM
For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

When a season is as long as 162 games, statistics are a great measure of production, and certainly don't lie. I agree that there are some factors of production that don't go into statistics, but if you look at Dunn's production over the last 4 seasons (like 650 games), you can't argue that he has been a consistent run producer, and an asset to this offense.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:35 PM
http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/dunnad01.shtml

Scroll to the bottom and look at the similar players through age 27 as Adam Dunn, tell me you wouldnt want those guys in the middle of your lineup.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 02:36 PM
What makes Dunn so inconsistent and not fundamentally sound. He is a discplined hitter,

Come on.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:38 PM
For numerous reasons, they most certainly can - especially if there is no situational component to a given statistic.

Well then what are you basing off of, "gut" feelings? Or simply the way everyone else does things? Or the way baseball is supposed to be played? Those have less value then baseball statistics.

thorn
06-13-2008, 02:38 PM
I comprehend very well... Your point was that Starting Pitching Alone wasn't the answer...

But it was a pointless point, as you mentioned Pitching and Defense was what we needed... So, you included Pitching in your argument... I figured you were going to come with morre than "Pitching & Defense"... I have to give you cred though, you didn't put 1/5 of the Payroll in there... Or did you? And you didn't address anything I was asking about with all the money saving this team will have with the Contracts dropping????

Even though there are some raises coming for players...

Pitching should always be this teams #1 priority. We have enough young players comming up to replace more expensive offensive players, so we should always focus on pitching. Thats what I am getting at, let more expensive offensive players walk, spend your money on pitching.

And Girffey, if you think Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson is a championship caliber pitching staff then we will just have to disagree. Bailey will be a bust, he's showed me nothing, Arroyo will be gone after next year (And probably Harang), so your championship rotation is Volquez, Cueto, Baily, Maloney and Thompson?

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:39 PM
Come on.

He swings and misses a lot, yes. But he doesnt often chase pitches out of the zone.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:43 PM
Come on.

Career OBP of .382
Career OPS of .900

Keep in mind these numbers include when he debuted as a rookie at the age of 21.

How is that not a disciplined hitter?

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 02:46 PM
Pitching should always be this teams #1 priority. We have enough young players comming up to replace more expensive offensive players, so we should always focus on pitching. Thats what I am getting at, let more expensive offensive players walk, spend your money on pitching.

And Girffey, if you think Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, Thompson is a championship caliber pitching staff then we will just have to disagree. Bailey will be a bust, he's showed me nothing, Arroyo will be gone after next year (And probably Harang), so your championship rotation is Volquez, Cueto, Baily, Maloney and Thompson?

Harang is signed through 2010 with a club option for 2011. Why would we get rid of a guy who had 200+ k's and 16 wins with a 3.75 e.r.a. the previous 2 years when he is well below the market value. We can't ditch him cuz of a rough start. Volquez looks and will be a top of the rotation stud. Im not ready to count out Cueto, Bailey, Maloney, and Thompson as not be good quality pitchers down the road.

The only way we get dominate pitching is home grown, or through trade. And through trade we have to trade young talent and won't have it to fill out the offense.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 02:54 PM
Career OBP of .382
Career OPS of .900

Keep in mind these numbers include when he debuted as a rookie at the age of 21.

How is that not a disciplined hitter?

The guy is inconsistent and streaky. Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers, his RISP numbers, the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year, the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over, etc., etc. Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced than simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:00 PM
That is why he hits much better when a runner is on first as compared to a runner in scoring position with first base open. Pitchers can throw him only pitchers pitches and not be afraid of walking him with first open, especially with whichever hack is behind him. Dunn is 27 entering his prime, and this year he has been much much better as far as sac fly's and getting runners in without using the longball. And he has been CLUTCH for us.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 03:09 PM
The guy is inconsistent and streaky. (See numbers below)
Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers: He strikes out quite a bit, yes. What power hitter not named Pujols doesn't strike out a lot.

his RISP numbers: See numbers below; Not nearly as bad as people think. He doesn't hit for high average, but a few numbers to point out. Man on 3rd with less than two outs, 50 RBI in 70 AB. Runner on 3rd, he's hitting .342.

the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year: Who cares if they aren't sac flies? As long as they are RBI's? over a 100 a year basically unlike any other Red.

the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over: Don't have anything for that

Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced tham simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.:

It would be if he batted in the two hole, where is career numbers are insane, which is also below




Wow.


Year Team G AB R H HR RBI BB K AVG OBP SLG OPS
2001 CIN 66 244 54 64 19 43 38 74 0.262 0.371 0.578 0.949
2002 CIN 158 535 84 133 26 71 128 170 0.249 0.400 0.454 0.854
2003 CIN 116 381 70 82 27 57 74 126 0.215 0.354 0.465 0.819
2004 CIN 161 568 105 151 46 102 108 195 0.266 0.388 0.569 0.956
2005 CIN 160 543 107 134 40 101 114 168 0.247 0.387 0.540 0.927
2006 CIN 160 561 99 131 40 92 112 194 0.234 0.365 0.490 0.855
2007 CIN 152 522 101 138 40 106 101 165 0.264 0.386 0.554 0.940
2008 CIN 64 201 36 46 16 41 56 66 0.229 0.397 0.507 0.904

That is a label of consistency right there.


By situation:


By Situation AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
1B Only 304 53 74 12 2 27 60 54 107 0.243 0.370 0.563 0.933
Bases Loaded 32 56 9 2 0 4 43 10 14 0.281 0.396 0.719 1.115
Close and Late 230 37 52 14 0 14 37 45 87 0.226 0.362 0.470 0.832
First and 2nd 130 42 35 4 0 10 53 27 39 0.269 0.403 0.531 0.934
First and Third 46 25 6 0 0 1 12 13 15 0.130 0.317 0.196 0.513
Lead Off Inning 382 0 88 26 2 18 18 43 122 0.230 0.313 0.450 0.763
Man 3rd<2 out 70 64 17 3 0 4 50 19 24 0.243 0.380 0.457 0.837
Men On, 2 out 304 95 65 11 1 17 86 100 110 0.214 0.413 0.424 0.837
No men On 916 62 233 59 2 62 62 141 289 0.254 0.360 0.526 0.886
0 On1/2 out 511 41 139 32 0 41 41 92 161 0.272 0.388 0.575 0.963
None On/Out 405 21 94 27 2 21 21 49 128 0.232 0.324 0.464 0.788
On Second 127 35 27 5 0 11 35 54 41 0.213 0.448 0.512 0.960
On Third 38 18 13 4 0 4 18 11 8 0.342 0.490 0.763 1.253
Runners On 710 245 170 27 2 58 237 186 238 0.239 0.401 0.528 0.929
Scoring Pos. 406 192 96 15 0 31 177 132 131 0.236 0.422 0.502 0.924
Sco. P. 2 out 180 78 44 8 0 11 72 73 62 0.244 0.465 0.472 0.937
2nd and 3rd 33 16 6 0 0 1 16 17 14 0.182 0.473 0.273 0.746


Batting in the 2 hole:


By Batting Order AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB HBP SO AVG OBP SLG OPS
Batting #2 153 26 48 8 0 12 31 30 5 54 0.314 0.441 0.601 1.042

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:14 PM
Well put Homer.

durl
06-13-2008, 03:16 PM
The guy is inconsistent and streaky. Plus, you have to add his strikeout numbers, his RISP numbers, the fact he couldn't put together a sacrifice fly in over a year, the fact he couldn't routinely move runners over, etc., etc. Again, the game of baseball is more nuanced tham simply boiling it down to OPS. And yes, the guy does walk, but many of the walks come simply because he's being pitched around with a hacker and easy out behind him. And, a walk does not always necessarily equal a single.

Which player would you rather have:

1: BA - .292 / HR - 21 / Runs - 90 / RBI - 75
2: BA - .245 / HR - 39 / Runs - 105 / RBI 102

These are not actual numbers but #2 is roughly Dunn's numbers over the past 4-5 years. Line #1 seems like what most Dunn critics say is acceptable. The question is, do you want the team to have a guy with a higher BA that produces fewer runs or one that produces runs with a lower BA?

I remember one of the biggest rips against Sean Casey was that he didn't hit for power. Sure, he had a .310 BA but people wanted Runs. Dunn provides runs but not a high BA and he's ripped.

levydl
06-13-2008, 03:16 PM
I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

Gut feelings tell you the sun revolves around the earth. Mathematical analysis tells you you're wrong.

Ed Otten
06-13-2008, 03:22 PM
"Statistics don't lie. But statisticians do."

It's important to remember that. The numbers are what they are. They are objective measures of something. The performance of Dunn is what it is. His home run totals, his RBI totals, OBP, AVG w/ runners in scoring position, AVG w/ runners in scoring position and two outs, AVG w/ a runner on third, two outs, in the ninth, on Tuesdays, in the month of July during a leap year in the state of California.

All of those are values which can be objectively calculated.

They don't lie.

However, a person's interpretation of the values and use of the values to make a point is where the lying can (and often does) exist. Some people think one statistic better describes the value of a player than another. And that's a fine discussion to have. But it is a truth in life that people will find the value that proves their point, rather than using all the values to come to a logical conclusion. This is a human trait. And even the best, most method-oriented scientists do it, even though if anyone should know better, it should be them.


So statistics can be dangerous, because their USE can be biased.


However, the idea that a subjective rating (a gut feeling) is preferential to an objective rating (a calculated value) is problematic at best. At least with the objective rating you are beginning your argument with something derived independently of your own emotions and biases. With a gut feeling, there is little (if any) room for objectivity.

A person's perceptions of Adam Dunn (or any player) can be useful. Watching him play can help you understand nuances of his swing, stance, eye hand coordination, etc. But just watching him can not give you much valid information about his expected performance.

I've heard stories of scouts going to watch a prospective player, and remarking, "that kid just looks like a ballplayer." When what the scouts were actually looking at was broken down, it became apparent that the scouts were many times (unintentionially perhaps) looking at things like facial structure and hair length. That's right, facial structure and hair length (and given the atmosphere at the time, you can bet that what "looked like a ballplayer" was not someone with the skin color of Jackie Robinson or the hair length of Bronson Arroyo). Things which of course have no connection to on the field performance.

So be careful about saying "Adam Dunn is not a good player because when I watch him play he doesn't perform like I think a good player should."

It's a cliche, but it's true. "Looks can be decieving."

Start with the objective data, and then go from there. You can still engage in bias when using objective data, but starting from the subjective is a invitation to come to the wrong conclusion more often then not. And given how much money we're talking about here, I sure as heck would not want to base my decision only on "what I see when I watch him play".

But that's just me.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:26 PM
When going with my guy feeling I used to rip constantly on Dunn because he struck out, played an ugly left field, didn't hit for average so I assumed he was a bad hitter, and just thought he looked akward playing (which he still kinda does).

This year I decided he was on the Reds so I was going to be behind him, and I have now came to appreciate and realize the good he brings to the team. You just have to look in deeper places than the surface.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 03:27 PM
Gut feelings tell you the sun revolves around the earth. Mathematical analysis tells you you're wrong.

That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.

44Magnum
06-13-2008, 03:32 PM
How many runs does he give up each season with his 8 errors per season average over the past 6 years or so? And what is the scoring impact on the W/L record over 162 games with those 8 errors?

Errors are not the only way to hurt your team on defense. What about all the balls he doesn't get to or his weak arm?

44Magnum
06-13-2008, 03:34 PM
I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts. He's just another one of our inconsistent all-or-nothing unintelligent players who disappear for weeks at a time and is shaky in the field. That's not a winning combination. The game of baseball is more nuanced than simply turning to OPS and sabermetrics. You win consistently by playing consistently and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

A truly wonderful post! I could not agree more.

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:39 PM
Nobody is basing Adam Dunn solely off of OBP here, but because of the way he is pitched too, his OBP is a very valuable stat because he shows the patience to take the walk when it is what is given to him. Many hitters lack this. I am pretty sure we all know baseball is not simply numbers, but it is a mix of many things. Dusty is old school and ignores numbers, speed in the leadoff spot, weak contact in the 2 spot, Dunn down lower cuz of Avg., Phillips at 4 to split up righty lefty. These strategies also have faults.

I've watched Adam Dunn play since he broke into the league, I know his defense is questionable, it is getting better, but still average at best. Nobody is saying because he gets on base he plays good defense and is great. It is one of his valuable skills, along with his power, pitcher's being afraid of him, there are also things like his character in the clubhouse that all partake in winning. How about him and Griffey laughing and joking with Jay Bruce, I bet that is a big reason Bruce is hitting .380 because those guys made him feel welcome.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 03:40 PM
Yeah, lets take Dunn out, Griffey out, and go with Bruce-Phillips-Edwin as out 3-4-5 hitters and see Bruce not stand a chance cause he will get nothing to hit...

Is this the Lineup you want?

Kepp
CF - Janish, Dickerson?
Bruce
Phillips
Edwin
Votto
LF - Hopper?
C - Bako?
P

I mean, lose Adam Dunn and whats your answer?

redhawk61
06-13-2008, 03:48 PM
Yeah, lets take Dunn out, Griffey out, and go with Bruce-Phillips-Edwin as out 3-4-5 hitters and see Bruce not stand a chance cause he will get nothing to hit...

Is this the Lineup you want?

Kepp
CF - Janish, Dickerson?
Bruce
Phillips
Edwin
Votto
LF - Hopper?
C - Bako?
P

I mean, lose Adam Dunn and whats your answer?

If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.:beerme:

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:51 PM
What if Adam Dunn were right handed? how would all these perceptions change?

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 04:09 PM
If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.:beerme:

I doubt whatever we get for those two will be ready to be in our lineup this year, especially if its just a two month rental of Dunn. We're looking at just getting some B level prospects.

dsmith421
06-13-2008, 04:15 PM
If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.


And once again, remind me what teams in the Major Leagues are going to give us major league ready talent for Griffey and Dunn?

Hondo
06-13-2008, 04:15 PM
If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.:beerme:

I am just telling you, Walt probably resigns Adam Dunn for 5 years/70 Million...

Then I hope swings some prospects for a Bonafide Right Handed Power Hitter that plays RF, 3B, or SS...

Ya know what else. Here is a Pipe Dream. I want this team to sign Francisco Rodriguez to a 4 year deal, and front Load it with the Salary being cheaper the last year...

That would be one Badd A Bullpen that would shut people down...

OUReds
06-13-2008, 04:24 PM
I disagree with much of that. Dunn is a perfect example where sabermetrics and fantasy baseball statistics fail. Sometimes you simply have to watch the player and use your gut instincts.

The Stephen Colbert method of baseball management.

Well played sir. If it works for the Sault Sainte Marie Greyhounds, it will certainly work for us.

Coming soon to GAB Steagle Colbeagle the Eagle, all american mascot.

OUReds
06-13-2008, 04:31 PM
That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.

Wait, do you really think Dunn supporters simply don't watch the games? And that's the reason they disagree with you?

We're all too busy playing with our slide rules to be bothered with being a fan?

levydl
06-13-2008, 04:33 PM
That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.

You don't think I actually watch him play? I've already been to about 15 games (went last night, going tomorrow), and my girlfriend hates me because all we ever watch are the Reds.

There are situational numbers. Over the course of an entire season, in almost every case, they'll be very close to one's overall numbers. That's what the numbers say.

But the real point is, there is simply no way you can just watch Dunn and comprehend what he has done over 162 games and 650 times at bat. It's simply not possible. There's just too much information over too long a period of time for the human mind to get an accurate picture. You bring your biases with you, whatever they are. Statistics sweep them away (at least offensively they do - defensive more difficult). You can't say, "Oh, Dunn hits only meaningless HRs - either they're with no one on or they're when we're up a bunch or down a bunch, when the statistics prove otherwise. They are unbiased.

Then, you can analyze statistics and determine what are the most important - that is, what led to winning games. As it turns out, hits aren't as important as not making outs. People didn't figure that out when they were just watching the game - it's not conducive to observation. Not making an out is the thing most likely to create a run. That's what studying statistics has shown - the more times players come up to bat without making an out, the more runs a team scores. The more runs a team scores, the more likely they are to win (with good pitching, they're very likely to win). That's not my opinion from watching a bunch of games, that's a statistical fact. No bias. No preconceptions brought in. Just data and analysis.

Thus, OBP is a much more telling stat than people typically realize. BA, on the other hand, is highly overrated, since it only tells part of the picture.

And on and on. Statistics won't be 100% accurate in determining winning - for instance, the Diamondbacks allowed more runs than they scored last year, so statistically speaking they should not have won a lot of games, yet they did - but they are generally accurate, and much more accurate than anything else. They are by far the best device we have.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 04:47 PM
Wait, do you really think Dunn supporters simply don't watch the games? And that's the reason they disagree with you?

No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 05:08 PM
No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.

I've seen Dunn hit 7 career walk off homers (I think the number is 7) and numerous game tying home runs and those can't be included in the OBP and OPS categories.

It's a double edged sword you are swinging, and that sword is missing its target more often than Adam Dunn does.

OUReds
06-13-2008, 05:25 PM
No, I think you're putting too much faith in limited and flawed metrics. A cursory glance can tell you how problematic applying OBP and OPS to Dunn is as an end-all, which is precisely why at times you have to actually watch the games, pay attention, especially situationally speaking, and use your gut extincts. Statistics can and do lie when they are imperfect metrics. With OBP and OPS, you're taking 2nd grade addition formulas and attempting to explain away a complex game. It's not that simple.

2nd grade addition formulas? Explain away a complex game? Really?

OPS is used to judge overall offensive production because it is a relatively simple and easy to grasp stat that correlates extremely well to actual runs scored, much better then traditional metrics such as BA and the like.

Are we trying to use stats and other OBJECTIVE analysis to rationalize Dunn's poor performance? Or are you trying to "explain away" the objective analysis because it doesn't fit with what you see, your SUBJECTIVE analysis? With respect, if you think it's the former, you are deluding yourself.

I've watched Dunn since he came up, I watch nearly every game. My "gut" tells me he is the Red's best offensive player. Yours tells you he isn't. These are both subjective points of view. The difference is that the OBJECTIVE data says that I am right. Goodness knows everyone is welcome to their opinion, but recognize it as such. Without anything to back it up, your arguement is essentially Dunn is not very good because I say so.

steig
06-14-2008, 09:34 AM
If we lose both of Dunn and Griff what we get in return we fill some of those voids.

Regardless, not posting pro of non Dunn, but I have a feeling that by Aug. 1st Walt will have a new impact bat in the lineup, cause thats the kinda GM he is.:beerme:

If we get an impact bat through trade then we can get rid of Dunn. I read that the Tigers might be looking to implode the team and trade off Magglio Ordonez. I would jump all over that possibility.

Still, I would consider resigning Dunn to a ltc despite his batting average this month and to date this season. I would offer a ltc to Ryan Howard if the chance was available and his batting average is worse than Dunn's.

improbus
06-16-2008, 10:16 AM
I think we have to look at what other contenders in similar financial situations do. Minnesota and Oakland, who have been consistently strong teams, have been willing to let some of their better players go because they knew that they could replace some of that production with young guys and they could reallocate the money saved on the single player. Look at the names they have released or traded: Tejada, Giambi, Hunter, Zito, Mulder, Hudson, Santana, and Haren. They were able to replace those guys and are still fighting for a playoff spot. Reds fans freaked out when we shipped out Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. It's the game we need to play, and we are simply unwilling to play it. The idea that "Dunn and Griffey fill the seats" is the dumbest, weakest, and most Bengal-like logic I've ever heard. Who cares? I want to win, and I almost guarantee that if the Reds sign Dunn to $15 mil a year, that they will not win.

I'm not saying all of this as an indictment of Dunn. In a way, this has nothing to do with Dunn himself. This is philosophy and business. In fact, I think the Reds should be taking offers on anyone not named Cueto, Volquez, Votto, and Bruce. They are the foundation. Sell high on Dunn, sell high on Harang, sell high on Phillips. Reds fan are too sentimental and rate our own players too highly.

durl
06-16-2008, 11:35 AM
I don't believe signing Dunn to a LTC would be the death knell for the Reds. Reds pitching has been one of the worst (and often THE worst) in the NL for 6-7 years. You can't give up more runs than any other team in the NL and expect to compete. So do the Reds let Dunn go and spend $7-8 million/year on a couple of good pitchers? Perhaps..I don't know. Still, how many of those 100 RBIs he's averaged each year for 4 years would the Reds be willing to let go?

Pitching, pitching, pitching...

Hondo
06-16-2008, 01:43 PM
I don't believe signing Dunn to a LTC would be the death knell for the Reds. Reds pitching has been one of the worst (and often THE worst) in the NL for 6-7 years. You can't give up more runs than any other team in the NL and expect to compete. So do the Reds let Dunn go and spend $7-8 million/year on a couple of good pitchers? Perhaps..I don't know. Still, how many of those 100 RBIs he's averaged each year for 4 years would the Reds be willing to let go?

Pitching, pitching, pitching...

In this day and age, what "good" pitcher is available for 7-8 Million a year?

Seriously? I like the idea of keeping Arroyo and Harang... Got a Future Ace in Volquez ( I know somebody is going to say, he is our ace now, but zip it- I know this), and Great Promise in Cueto... I know Bailey has had some bad outings but he has went against the Phillies and Red Sox... Hamels and Beckett... And hell it didn't matter if he gave up 3 runs over 6 IP in both those games... The Offense stopped. But anyhow, with Thompson pitching darn good, and this Maloney guy, who I personally think is Belisle II coming...

Anyhow... Whether Thompson or Bailey turn into Studs, it doesn't matter... Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Thompson or Bailey...

That has the makings of a great Rotation...

But back to this Thread. I have wasted countless Hours talking about Dunn's value to the team... I can't do anything until this teams leading Homerun Hitter is hitting 18 a year, then I can finnaly say "I told ya so" to all of you who think this Losing is Dunns fault...

Get rid of Dunn? How about getting rid of the Players that don't perform at all...

Patterson, Valentin, Ross, Bako, Lincoln, Weathers, Fogg, Belisle...

Freel isn't Worth 3 Million... Hmmm.... I posted together a Salary thread not too long ago, and all you Dunn Haters failed to address what you would sugest doing with all the before mentioned Money Savings...

Including Stantons 3.5 Million, and Griffeys 8.3 Million, and then Dunns 13 Million...

Somedays it sounds to me if the Reds 86 Adam Dunn and do nothing else, then you will move to another guy under performimg...

Look out Votto... If you slump... Redszone Dunn hates will have you in their Bullseyez....

Nice...

Cicero
06-16-2008, 02:00 PM
I never understood why fans always pick certain players to hate and constantly post tirades on an issue that quite frankly has been beaten to death.

The fact is Dunn provides run production and a lot of it. Unfortunately for some he is an AVERAGE defensive ball player. Not terrible or even bad, just average. Add in a few talking heads on radio/television and you have a bunch of dimple heads posting numerous neverending tirades about him.

The same has happened to Griffey, Casey, Phillips to an extent and Bailey. I am sure within a few weeks it will be Bruce or Votto.

If you feel the need to rant about this player or that player that "needs to be moved" please add it to one of the hundreds of other threads on the subject and save us all from having to dig through 4-5 pages of this crap to look for the threads that actually do offer something to read about and discuss.

durl
06-16-2008, 02:17 PM
+1, Cicero.

People call for players to be moved that may be the highest ranking Red in an offensive category, blaming them for the Reds' losing record, meanwhile the Reds pitching staff gives up more runs than any other NL team.

Most players have hot and cold streaks but the Reds pitching staff has had a cold streak lasting 7 years. People can blame Dunn's 8 errors a season and .230 BA on why the Reds haven't made the playoffs for years but that's ignoring the true problem. The Reds pitching staff has GOT to stop leading the league in runs allowed if this team is ever going to compete.

Fullboat
06-16-2008, 05:01 PM
I got no problem with Dunn other than he is going to be very
expensive for the Reds to keep.I don't want another Griffey
situation(a broken down and old OF who can't be traded because of salary and 10/5 rights)yes Dunn is a lot younger than
Griffey but he is not in the best of shape and if his legs go well...For those who say If Dunn goes so do the Reds I say hogwash.In 1971 the Reds traded Lee May to the Stros for
Joe Morgan,César Gerónimo and Jack Billingham all that gave
us was 2 World Championships.

JayBruce4HOF
06-16-2008, 05:04 PM
Dunn is far and away the best offensive player on the Reds. Letting him go will leave a huge black hole of offense that will be nearly impossible to replace.

OBP never sleeps.

Griffey012
06-16-2008, 08:05 PM
Would some of the anti Dunn crowd be fine with Pat Burrell in left field for the same price as Dunn? I'd like to hear reasons why too.

Slyder
06-16-2008, 08:41 PM
I got no problem with Dunn other than he is going to be very
expensive for the Reds to keep.I don't want another Griffey
situation(a broken down and old OF who can't be traded because of salary and 10/5 rights)yes Dunn is a lot younger than
Griffey but he is not in the best of shape and if his legs go well...For those who say If Dunn goes so do the Reds I say hogwash.In 1971 the Reds traded Lee May to the Stros for
Joe Morgan,César Gerónimo and Jack Billingham all that gave
us was 2 World Championships.

Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.

Hondo
06-16-2008, 08:55 PM
Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.

Roberto Kelly, and that was a Whim-Dinger!

Yeah, look... I cannot believe Dunn gets the Brunt of this when there are soooo Many players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot...

Fullboat
06-16-2008, 09:51 PM
Dunn's 28 years old even an Alfonso Soriano lengthed contract puts him at 36 years old. Plus he has only had one year that he played less than 150 games (not including 2001 part year). And the Reds also traded a "wash up" 3b to Baltimore howd that work out? Or how about Paul O'Neill to The Yanks for Who? The Reds record has been far from perfect when it comes to those type of deals.

There is always a danger of a bad trade(Robinson for Pappas was the
worst of all)but you have to take a chance.Dunn is not helping the Reds
right now(and believe me he is the least of there problems)and he is
an established talent that we can get something for him and his 13mill can be used elsewhere like pitching.

Fullboat
06-16-2008, 09:54 PM
Roberto Kelly, and that was a Whim-Dinger!

Yeah, look... I cannot believe Dunn gets the Brunt of this when there are soooo Many players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot...

Those players getting paid on this team that are not even worthy of a major league Roster Spot will be jettisoned at the end of the season
and quite easily at that.

improbus
06-16-2008, 10:06 PM
Here's my final take on Dunn from the Reds perspective. When I see Dunn's contributions offensively, I see him as the ideal "second banana". He's a guy that works counts, gets on base, and hits home runs. He is a very good RBI man, but not an elite, mostly because of his BA. He will knock in 90-100 per year, but I can't see him ever getting to that 120-130 range that the all-timers get to. The Reds need to place him in front of someone who can take full advantage of his .380 -.390 OBP. Unfortunately because of age and injuries, Junior has not been that guy. Phillips isn't really either. Maybe Bruce or Votto can be that guy. But they need someone who can capitolize on Dunn's strengths. If they can't fins that guy, then they might think about moving him. It's kind of like matching a fly ball pitcher with Dodger stadium or Petco Park in San Diego. You need the right fit. Right now, the Reds are wasting Dunn by hitting him 5th with no one who can really knock him in.

FlightRick
06-16-2008, 10:17 PM
That's funny because the mathematcal formulas you worship are flawed. Completely flawed. You cannot take a complex game and boil it down to OPS(there is no situational component), which is precisely why you must at times actually watch the baseball games. Baseball is too complex and nuanced to say total number of bases is the end-all. Dunn is the perfect example where these flawed metrics fail. If you actually watch him play over the course of several years and pay attention situationally speaking, you tend to form a completely different opinion.

OK, so I'm not a Stat Wanker. I don't even really like Stat Wankers (there is something off-putting about watching baseball, and trying to train myself to see a run as a by-product of the lone Truly Desirable Outcome, which is "Not Making An Out"; I don't know about you, but if "Not Making An Out" doesn't put a run on the board, it's hard for me to get up off my couch and appreciate the beauty and nuance of the formulas behind the game with a hearty whoop and cheer).

But at the same time, I am not intellectually incurious, and can't quite go along with the Colbert-esque "gut" argument, either. There must be some middle ground.

For instance: don't like the current formulae? Propose some new ones. To wit: here's an idea I had, and it relates specifically to Dunn...

A while back (I don't remember if it was in here or on the ORG), somebody did a cool little statistical analysis that showed that just because your team averages 4.5 runs scored per game doesn't mean you'll win the same number of games per year. The main thrust of the analysis was that you'll win more games the smaller the standard deviation of your run scoring.

So just because you score more runs than most teams over the course of 162 games doesn't mean you'll win more games. Your team is hurt if you "score in bunches" (i.e. you score 8, 1, 7, 0, 2, 8, 6, 11, 1, 1 over the course of 10 games for a total of 45 runs); your team is better off if you perform consistantly (i.e. you score 4, 5, 6, 2, 5, 4, 5, 4, 4, 6, also for a total of 45 runs in 10 games).

I can't help but wonder if the same exact thing would hold true if you applied that concept to each individual at-bat, instead of to a game as a whole.

The Stat Wankers have their formulae for "Runs Created." From there, one should be able to calculate an individual batter's "Expected Runs Created Per Plate Appearance." Then, each Actual Outcome also has a "Runs Created" value. Calculate the difference between the expected and the actual, and keep track over the course of the year: it's a zero sum game, of course, but in doing this, you get each batter's standard deviation RC per at bat, and you can start to determine how that player's THEORETICAL production actually ties into the whole line-up's EFFECTIVE production.

I think that'd be an interesting line of study. Does the RC standard deviation mean anything? How about if you consider it not just for a single player, but amplified over the course of 9 batters? If it does matter, how much does it matter? My "gut" says that it's better to have consecutive hitters who are more likely to put up numbers like "2-4, w/ single, double, SAC" than to have consecutive hitters with lines like "1-4, w/ HR, 1 BB, 2 K's, 1 GiDP."

"Runs Created" might tell us the second player is more valuable. But when placed within a line-up, does the idea of consistency and standard deviation from expected values cause that value to degrade? Could there be a multiplicative effect on team production caused by lower standard deviations among batters, and/or a divisive one caused by higher deviations?

I dunno, I'm far to lazy to work up a spreadsheet. But the little analysis I'm remembering about consistency of runs scored is suggestive enough. Somebody feel free to get on this, chop chop.


Rick

Fullboat
06-16-2008, 10:24 PM
When selling a house one tries to increase its value so the Reds if there thinking
of trading Dunn bat him 5th or lower Brilliant!!!

Oxilon
06-16-2008, 10:29 PM
I know this won't be happening necessarily next season, but resigning key coponents to our future long term success must be addressed. Affordable yet relatively lengthy LTC should be handed out to Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto in the upcoming two years (ala the Indians of the 90's). Tying up $15MM a season to Dunn for the next 5 years won't allow us to do so, which would be a horrible mistake.

BLEEDS
06-16-2008, 10:31 PM
Yeah, pick ONE MONTH where the most productive Offensive guy is toughing it out, "playing hurt" as has been reported, and use that as an argument.

What a joke.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
06-16-2008, 10:38 PM
I know this won't be happening necessarily next season, but resigning key coponents to our future long term success must be addressed. Affordable yet relatively lengthy LTC should be handed out to Bruce, Votto, Volquez, and Cueto in the upcoming two years (ala the Indians of the 90's). Tying up $15MM a season to Dunn for the next 5 years won't allow us to do so, which would be a horrible mistake.

:deadhorse

:nono::lindner::obrien:

:sleep:


:castellini::thumbup:


PEACE

- BLEEDS

Slyder
06-16-2008, 10:40 PM
There is always a danger of a bad trade(Robinson for Pappas was the
worst of all)but you have to take a chance.Dunn is not helping the Reds
right now(and believe me he is the least of there problems)and he is
an established talent that we can get something for him and his 13mill can be used elsewhere like pitching.

For what 2 Eric Milton's? The pitching market MOST years is barren unless you want to throw more than Dunn money at. With Harang and the Kids we shouldnt be that worried about the rotation. Granted you can never have enough pitching. Dunn type money shouldnt be needed to fix the flaws in the pen and on the bench just smarter investments.

If Cast is being honest about opening the checkbook there should be 0 problems resigning Dunn and growing the finances for the team. Just find someone who manages to get his best bats up the most rather than plays to keep LH Specialist from being effective for 1 inning and costing the team outs, "Respect", and I think you'd see a pretty good response from this young team.

BurgervilleBuck
06-17-2008, 10:38 AM
Also, Griffey won't be eating 8.3 Million, so his Salary is off the Books...
Griffey won't be off the books until 2024.

BLEEDS
06-17-2008, 10:45 AM
Griffey won't be off the books until 2024.

Incorrect. He will no longer be on the Payroll. His Deferred money was considered as part of his annual salary.

00-08:$12.5M/year, 09:$16.5M club option ($4M buyout)
$57.5M in salary deferred at 4% interest, to be paid 2009-2024, reducing contract's present-day value at time of signing to between $9.2M and $9.3M annually, according to Reds management sources
$5.5M of 2000 salary deferred
$6.5M/year of 2001-2008 salaries deferred
signed 2/2000, replacing final year of previous contract

That bolded part is what they "book" for salary as far as payroll is concerned.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

durl
06-17-2008, 11:40 AM
I don't think I follow. If money is deferred but accounted for in the annual salary, wouldn't that mean that the annual salary would be increased rather than lowered?

I'm not well versed in the finer details of MLB contracts...which are only a tad simpler than the IRS tax codes...

BLEEDS
06-17-2008, 12:58 PM
I don't think I follow. If money is deferred but accounted for in the annual salary, wouldn't that mean that the annual salary would be increased rather than lowered?

I'm not well versed in the finer details of MLB contracts...which are only a tad simpler than the IRS tax codes...


His CONTRACT reads as $12.5M per year.
In 2001 to 2008, $6.5M is Deferred.
That leaves $6.0M.
However, they calculate a cost of the deferred money in today's dollars.
That increases the value of the annual salary that they budget for in the payroll.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

LouisvilleCARDS
06-17-2008, 08:24 PM
I know OBP and SLUG and all that is the popular way of doing things and it makes SENSE that walks should be included in the stats since it's essentially a single, so call me old school, but I think batting average is becoming an overlooked indicator nowadays to all the stats out there.

How can you tell how many of Dunn's walks were due to just pitchers pitching around him? What's the percentage of those walks that he scored a run on versus those he scored a run on with a hit? It's a big difference getting on base by hit than by walk if the pitcher is just pitching around the guy because he thinks its pretty meaningless. Or the opposing pitcher could jsut be throwing wild and walknig several guys. Who knows? Not that OBP isn't a good indicator and its important that guys get a walk, but it really doesn't put in context how or why the walk was issued. Putting the bat on the ball and getting a hit is pretty much a standard plus for your team no matter what you do. So, in other words, when a pitcher pitches strikes or Dunn swings the bat, Adam Dunn gets on base about 1/4th of the time.

I think something needs to be said about the fact we've essentially only had ONE full time player batting over .300 at one time - be it Keppinger or Hairston - and right now our best hitter for average that is healthy is Votto at .275. Bruce has been doing well but hasn't played only a couple weeks. Then you go look at the league leading club in the Cubs and they have a TON of guys up there around .290-.300. I remember a few weeks ago I was counting their lineup that played and they had SEVEN guys in their lineup batting .300. Right now I count NINE players with significant playing time that are above .280 in average. And even then, literally Soriano is at about .283, the rest are basically .290 or above. We have had NO HEALTHY FULL TIME PLAYERS that are on that level and they have EIGHT.

That should sum up the difference right there. OBP and SLUG and all that is nice and all, but there is something more fearful when you go up against a lineup where basically any guy can put the bat on the ballat any time on you because they're running out .290 batters at every spot in the lineup. Our 1999 team was a lot like that too if anyone remembers. We really need to change the makeup of the team and get more guys who can put the bat on the ball on the squad.

BLEEDS
06-18-2008, 11:40 AM
I know OBP and SLUG and all that is the popular way of doing things and it makes SENSE that walks should be included in the stats since it's essentially a single, so call me old school, but I think batting average is becoming an overlooked indicator nowadays to all the stats out there.

As it should be.

You can say the same thing about hits - when did they occur, with noone on base, in the 8th inning of a blow-out, etc, etc, etc... that's why you look at Stats over a LARGE sample size to determine their Significance, and stop yourself from making ridiculous statements, such as, oh I don't know, "we can't sign this guy to a LTC because of how he's batting in June"...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
06-18-2008, 11:52 AM
How many runs does he give up each season with his 8 errors per season average over the past 6 years or so? And what is the scoring impact on the W/L record over 162 games with those 8 errors?

I mean, if we're going to give up one of the top RBI, HR, and Runs Scored men in all of baseball over the past 4-5 years, I would think that 8 errors a year isn't much of a justification. We should accurately quantify how many runs he allows versus what he scores. A large chunk of offense is at stake.

Just because he doesnt get an error doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs.. last night when he dove for the ball he should have either A) taken a better line or B) laid up and got the ball off the bounce.. then he would have saved that run..

then later he gave up another run when he took a terrible angle it went past him and got to the wall, russel martin should have scored but he fell down rounding 3rd.. and then on the play down the line.. he jogged to it, and then took a while to throw it and made the play at home way closer than it should have been.. i know bako dropped the ball but had dunn had any notion of getting it quick and getting it in the runner either would have been out by 4 or 5 steps or held at third..

by no means am i saying he caused all 3 runs.. but playing those 3 balls better he could have at least saved a run, maybe 2.. no erros, but still potentially made the game out of reach by his lack of good defense..

he did do one think well last night.. he is actually trying to go with the pitch including oppage.. which is something he has never done..

bounty37h
06-18-2008, 12:25 PM
Not to mention that he gives up numerous run per year with his horrible defense!

The Reds must let Dunn walk or trade him this year. How can anyone believe he deserves a mega-deal?

What about the same player hitting .152 for June now??

durl
06-18-2008, 12:42 PM
Just because he doesnt get an error doesnt mean he doesnt cost runs.. last night when he dove for the ball he should have either A) taken a better line or B) laid up and got the ball off the bounce.. then he would have saved that run..

then later he gave up another run when he took a terrible angle it went past him and got to the wall, russel martin should have scored but he fell down rounding 3rd.. and then on the play down the line.. he jogged to it, and then took a while to throw it and made the play at home way closer than it should have been.. i know bako dropped the ball but had dunn had any notion of getting it quick and getting it in the runner either would have been out by 4 or 5 steps or held at third..

by no means am i saying he caused all 3 runs.. but playing those 3 balls better he could have at least saved a run, maybe 2.. no erros, but still potentially made the game out of reach by his lack of good defense..

he did do one think well last night.. he is actually trying to go with the pitch including oppage.. which is something he has never done..

Good points. Still, those plays by Dunn didn't cost the Reds the game. They only needed to score 3 runs which should not be an unsurmountable task for an MLB team playing at home.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-18-2008, 01:13 PM
Good points. Still, those plays by Dunn didn't cost the Reds the game. They only needed to score 3 runs which should not be an unsurmountable task for an MLB team playing at home.

I agree.. but just was pointing out a few examples of not getting an error but still costing runs..

I dont understand how a major league ball club can have 6 strikeouts while watching.. not even an attempt to swing.. that is inexcusable..

btw his average for june is down to .132...
and he only has 2 non homerun hits.. 6 hits 4 of which were homers..

durl
06-18-2008, 01:46 PM
If we're dumping players because of their poor BA in June, the entire team would be cut.