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redhawk61
06-13-2008, 02:18 PM
I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:25 PM
I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....


I seriously can't believe Reds' fans attempts to analyze Dunn's statistics. You can't take out someone's hot streak, it's that simple. Hey take out Bruce's first week and he's just an average player. You can't pick and choose which statistics to use. He currently has an OPS over .900. Anybody else on this team have that? No. He's streaky, I get it, but his production numbers do not lie. If Dusty knew how to use him in a lineup, he would be an incredible asset to this team, but that is another story. Batting him 2 or 3 would give him better pitches to hit, and help utilize his high walk rate.

Care to calculate his OBP even during his "slumping?" Batting average is not a telling stat. Please don't use selective statistics when making a case. It leads to extremely inaccurate and misleading information.

Ohioballplayer
06-13-2008, 02:36 PM
Yeah what he said...........

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 02:42 PM
I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....

Thank you. This is precisely what I was saying in another thread. This is not a winning formula.

durl
06-13-2008, 02:42 PM
Every other major leaguer falls under the 162 game rule to accumulate statistics. Dunn happens to score more Runs and drive in more Runs than most other players within those 162 games. All players have up periods and down periods.

I might be the odd man here, but I view production as Runs Scored and RBIs. In the end, Runs Scored is the only thing that affects the W/L record. Dunn can bat .220 for a season and I'll be genuinely disappointed with that, but if he drives in 90-100 runs and scores 100 times (as his recent history proves), I don't believe that I could say that he's an unproductive player.

Over the past several years the Reds have ranked among the most potent offenses in the majors, but their pitching has ranked at or near the bottom in most pitching categories. The Reds lack of wins over the past several years can be laid directly at the hands of the pitching staff, not Dunn's Batting Average.

levydl
06-13-2008, 02:53 PM
I found this else where and don't claim it to be mine:

Thru Dunn's last AB he is now hitting .230 for the season. Recall Dunn had a 14 game hot streak from May 14-May 29 where he went 18 for 43 for a verrrrry nice .418 BA with 8 homeruns. However, what was the price you paid for that 2 week hot streak?? Alas.....

In the other 50 games Dunn has appeared in this year (prior to and directly subsequent to his hot streak) dunn is 28 for 157 for a .178 BA with 6 homeruns. For 78% Dunn's games the Reds have had a .178 BA hitter starting in LF and hitting 4/5/6 in the batting order.

Now here it gets really alarming. For those of you who hang your hat on Dunn's 40/100/100 benchmarks and contend "he is the most productive hitter" and that "you can't replace his 40/100/100"... well you all will be happy to know that DUNN IS STILL ON PACE FOR HIS 40/100/100. AS AWFUL as he has been this season game to game this year he is STILL on pace overall for his 40/100/100.

If he continues at his current pace he'll end up with ~38 HRs and 98 RBIs. And this all without being on pace to play his usual 160+ games..........

The FACT is 40/100/100 is not what it might seem on the surface. The fact that Dunn can still be on pace for those numbers while being a .178 hitter for ~80% of the season this year speaks to how the nature of a 162 game season allows players to accumulate season totals which are not necessarily reflective of a player's game to game productivity. Game to game Dunn has been arguably along with Corey Patterson the least productive hitter in the lineup.

Baseball history hasn't seen many players like Dunn (thankfully). And if anything positive comes out of the "Dunn era" maybe the baseball stat experts will recognize that new statistical measures are in fact required to more accurately capture the contributions (lack thereof) of a player like Dunn.

You don't win pennants for "accumulating bases". You win pennants by winning "games" day in day out - as many as possible. Building around a hot/cold streaky guy like Dunn perpetuates the inconsistency which has plagued this team for years. As has been the case for 5+ years now, the first step to the Reds having a chance to become a winning team is to send the donkey packing....

Is it that the 40/100/100 (100 walks, .380 OBP, .900 OPS) are not what they may seem, or that the batting average numbers aren't meaningful?

You don't win pennants by accumulating bases, no. On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.

Hitting .300 is not the most important end all be all. That's been proven so.

levydl
06-13-2008, 02:55 PM
Thank you. This is precisely what I was saying in another thread. This is not a winning formula.

Please don't use the word forumla. It has statistical overtones, and what he just wrote and what you just thanked him for would get an F in Baseball Statistics 101: These Ones Actually Matter.

redhawk61
06-13-2008, 02:55 PM
Is it that the 40/100/100 (100 walks, .380 OBP, .900 OPS) are not what they may seem, or that the batting average numbers you trot out as meaningful aren't? Hmmm.

You don't win pennants by accumulating bases, no. You win them, first, with pitching. Dunn is, admittedly, not very good at that, so I'll give you that one. On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.

But believe what you want. Believe that hitting .300 is the most important end all be all, despite what all the numbers and studies say. Ignorance is bliss, I guess.

It would be nice if you would not personally attack me when I said that this is not my work, I just thought it was an interesting perspective and something fellow RZ'ers would like to read

Homer Bailey
06-13-2008, 02:55 PM
Every other major leaguer falls under the 162 game rule to accumulate statistics. Dunn happens to score more Runs and drive in more Runs than most other players within those 162 games. All players have up periods and down periods.

I might be the odd man here, but I view production as Runs Scored and RBIs. In the end, Runs Scored the only thing that affects the W/L record. Dunn can bat .220 for a season and I'll be genuinely disappointed with that, but if he drives in 90-100 runs and scores 100 times (as his recent history proves), I don't believe that I could say that he's an unproductive player.

Over the past several years the Reds have ranked among the most potent offenses in the majors, but their pitching has ranked at or near the bottom in most pitching categories. The Reds lack of wins over the past several years can be laid directly at the hands of the pitching staff, not Dunn's Batting Average.


Agree 100%. I also love your sig. I'm not many other people on this board get that one, but that is a funny one.

And how is a career .382 OBP and a .900 OPS with 100 Runs and 100 RBI'S not a winning formula? Do you expect him to post a 2.00 ERA as well? Do you honestly think if we had a team full of Dunn's in our lineup that we wouldn't be the best team in the league?

levydl
06-13-2008, 03:09 PM
It would be nice if you would not personally attack me when I said that this is not my work, I just thought it was an interesting perspective and something fellow RZ'ers would like to read

I'm sorry, I didn't mean to personally attack you. I was attacking your opinion. No offense. I'll take out the personal stuff.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 03:09 PM
On offense, you win them by not making outs - that is, getting on base. Not making an out is the thing that most contributes to scoring runs. That's an objective fact. Dunn accomplishes that 2 times every 5 times he comes to the plate, which is among the best in baseball.

Baseball is a bit more complex and nuanced than that.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 03:34 PM
What are you talking about, that is still 2 HR and 2 RBI off the 40-100, so what are you doing or thinking? If it was like 31-79.... Go on with your bad self...

But that point was ridiculous... He will probably get to 40-100-100-100 anyway...

Griffey012
06-13-2008, 03:57 PM
Nuxhall 41, what is your winning formula, I would like to hear your insights on how to become a winning team and win a baseball game/

gilpdawg
06-13-2008, 04:20 PM
This thread is dumb. Every player has hot and cold streaks. You could do the same thing you just did for every player in baseball. It's the nature of the game.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 04:26 PM
Nuxhall 41, what is your winning formula, I would like to hear your insights on how to become a winning team and win a baseball game/

You need consistency. You need consistent players. We have a roster full of inconsistent players. We have hackers who get hot for a week or two, but then disappear for a month. We have pitchers who are up-and-down and you never know what you're going to get. We have players who make spectacular plays but then boot routine ones. As counterintuitive as it may sound, 1 run does not necessarily equal 1 run in baseball. You can score 12 runs over three games winning 9-1 while losing 3-2 & 3-1, or you can score 12 runs and win all three 4-1, 4-2 & 4-3.

Nuxhall41
06-13-2008, 04:28 PM
This thread is dumb. Every player has hot and cold streaks. You could do the same thing you just did for every player in baseball. It's the nature of the game.

Unfortunately on this team, it is ultra-pronounced.

thorn
06-13-2008, 04:36 PM
Maybe someone can help me out here, what have the Reds won these past 10 years and where has our offense ranked during that time? I think the original observation is dead on.

durl
06-13-2008, 04:53 PM
Maybe someone can help me out here, what have the Reds won these past 10 years and where has our offense ranked during that time? I think the original observation is dead on.

Let's look at Reds pitching over the past 10 years. That's where the attention needs to be.

Of the 16 teams in the NL, the Reds ERA rank over the past 10 years has been:
2007: 15th (only 1 team was worse)
2006: 7th (middle of the pack)
2005: 16th (worst)
2004: 15th
2003: 15th
2002: 11th
2001: 14th
2000: 5th
1999: 4th
1998: 10th

How about HR allowed ranking:
2007: 14th
2006: 16 (worst)
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 16 (worst)
2003: 14
2002: 13
2001: 13
2000: 9
1999: 9
1998: 9

Runs allowed rank?
2007: 15th
2006: 10
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 15
2003: 15
2002: 13
2001: 14
2000: 6
1999: 4
1998: 8

Hits per game allowed?
2007: 14th
2006: 16 (worst)
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 15
2003: 14
2002: 14
2001: 16 (worst)
2000: 5
1999: 1
1998: 5

Seriously, now. Can anyone look at pitching stats that show the Reds to be near or AT the bottom when it comes to these pitching stats and blame the Reds' losses on Adam Dunn's Batting Average? Dunn raising his Batting Average 30 points or making 4 fewer errors during the season ain't gonna make up for the LOUSY PITCHING the Reds have put on the field for almost 10 years.

levydl
06-13-2008, 05:00 PM
You need consistency. You need consistent players. We have a roster full of inconsistent players. We have hackers who get hot for a week or two, but then disappear for a month. We have pitchers who are up-and-down and you never know what you're going to get. We have players who make spectacular plays but then boot routine ones. As counterintuitive as it may sound, 1 run does not necessarily equal 1 run in baseball. You can score 12 runs over three games winning 9-1 while losing 3-2 & 3-1, or you can score 12 runs and win all three 4-1, 4-2 & 4-3.

Dunn has the same numbers every year!

If you score 12 runs every 3 games and your opponent scores 7, you'll make the playoffs every year. But yes, you will also lose 2 of 3 games every now and then. That variation only proves the rule. Over 162 games and 31 teams, those aberrations are shown to be just that.

thorn
06-13-2008, 05:19 PM
Let's look at Reds pitching over the past 10 years. That's where the attention needs to be.

Of the 16 teams in the NL, the Reds ERA rank over the past 10 years has been:
2007: 15th (only 1 team was worse)
2006: 7th (middle of the pack)
2005: 16th (worst)
2004: 15th
2003: 15th
2002: 11th
2001: 14th
2000: 5th
1999: 4th
1998: 10th

How about HR allowed ranking:
2007: 14th
2006: 16 (worst)
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 16 (worst)
2003: 14
2002: 13
2001: 13
2000: 9
1999: 9
1998: 9

Runs allowed rank?
2007: 15th
2006: 10
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 15
2003: 15
2002: 13
2001: 14
2000: 6
1999: 4
1998: 8

Hits per game allowed?
2007: 14th
2006: 16 (worst)
2005: 16 (worst)
2004: 15
2003: 14
2002: 14
2001: 16 (worst)
2000: 5
1999: 1
1998: 5

Seriously, now. Can anyone look at pitching stats that show the Reds to be near or AT the bottom when it comes to these pitching stats and blame the Reds' losses on Adam Dunn's Batting Average? Dunn raising his Batting Average 30 points or making 4 fewer errors during the season ain't gonna make up for the LOUSY PITCHING the Reds have put on the field for almost 10 years.

LOL, thats the point, you can't win without pitching, no matter how good Dunn does, or Griffey or how many runs this team scores. And this team can't afford both a great offense and great pitching, it's either or, and so far they have choosen the wrong one, offense. Nobody is blaming the looses on Dunn's BA, where did you get that from? Their saying the priority needs to change, or at least that's what I'm trying to say. And errors are the most useless stat in existance, even more so than BA.

Blue
06-13-2008, 06:30 PM
I'd like to think that when Dunn goes away because this town has forced him out, the mindless criticism our the team's best player will come to an end. Unfortunately, I suspect everyone will just find another scapegoat.

You people are unbelievable. You're talking about a guy who has been year in and year out the best and most consistent player on this team since Barry Larkin's prime. He's the second best thing this team has going for it, and has carried the offense on the season, in spite of the fact that he has not been utilized properly. You watch the game, but don't care to think about and analyze what you see in a meaningful way. You just pass on local rabid media drivel. Reading this nonsense is disgusting due to its lack of objectivity.

Hondo
06-13-2008, 06:58 PM
I'd like to think that when Dunn goes away because this town has forced him out, the mindless criticism our the team's best player will come to an end. Unfortunately, I suspect everyone will just find another scapegoat.

You people are unbelievable. You're talking about a guy who has been year in and year out the best and most consistent player on this team since Barry Larkin's prime. He's the second best thing this team has going for it, and has carried the offense on the season, in spite of the fact that he has not been utilized properly. You watch the game, but don't care to think about and analyze what you see in a meaningful way. You just pass on local rabid media drivel. Reading this nonsense is disgusting due to its lack of objectivity.

Well said my friend, well said...

improbus
06-13-2008, 07:20 PM
So, I guess everyone has forgotten September of '06 when Dunn went on a two month cold streak. The Reds were 5 games out on Sept. 1st and their pitchers posted a 3.64 ERA in September. Dunn had a "typical" Dunn season in '06: .855 OPS, 40 HR's, 92 RBI's, 99 Runs scored. But, look at his September/Oct. numbers (over 28 games): .595 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI's, and 11 Runs scored. I would say that Dunn's cold streaks can have a dramatic effect.

Now, I'm not blaming only Dunn. Phillips went just as cold. But, there is a larger point to be made. The numbers that show up on the back of a baseball card are great for fantasy sports and contracts, but they can be somewhat deceptive. If Dunn gets 1/2 of his stats in 40 games, what does that say for the other 120 games?

levydl
06-13-2008, 09:26 PM
So, I guess everyone has forgotten September of '06 when Dunn went on a two month cold streak. The Reds were 5 games out on Sept. 1st and their pitchers posted a 3.64 ERA in September. Dunn had a "typical" Dunn season in '06: .855 OPS, 40 HR's, 92 RBI's, 99 Runs scored. But, look at his September/Oct. numbers (over 28 games): .595 OPS, 2 HR, 5 RBI's, and 11 Runs scored. I would say that Dunn's cold streaks can have a dramatic effect.

Now, I'm not blaming only Dunn. Phillips went just as cold. But, there is a larger point to be made. The numbers that show up on the back of a baseball card are great for fantasy sports and contracts, but they can be somewhat deceptive. If Dunn gets 1/2 of his stats in 40 games, what does that say for the other 120 games?

That was by far Dunn's worst year, and yes, he was awful in Sept. Does that take away from everything else he's done?

Show me he gets 1/2 his stats in 40 games and I'll submit. But that's the point, over 162 games, much less 7 years of 162 games, it all evens out. He doesn't get all his stats in 40 games, and that's the point about the "back of the baseball card" - you don't have to just have an opinion ON that, you can look it up and see if it's objectively true. When you do, you'll see its certainly not the case.

improbus
06-14-2008, 08:57 AM
I don't have the time or desire to go too deep into the numbers. But, here is a small tidbit of what I see based on OPS, RBI's, and HR's in back to back months
2008:
April/March: .791 OPS, 11 RBI's, 4 HR's
May: 1.120 OPS, 25 RBI's, 10 HR's

2007: Dunn was remarkably consistent for him
July: .831 OPS, 13 RBI's, 4 HR's
August: 1.064 OPS, 25 RBI's, 9 HR's


2006: Already Mentioned horrendous months...

2005:
July: 1.092 OPS, 31 RBI's, 11 HR's
August: .795 OPS, 15 RBI's, 4 HR's

gilpdawg
06-14-2008, 11:52 AM
I don't have the time or desire to go too deep into the numbers.
That's because you can't back your point up well.

mroby85
06-14-2008, 12:46 PM
quite frankly this is the best post i've ever seen! I've always felt this way, but this has the stats to back it up! props to you RedHawk!

Dunnateher
06-14-2008, 01:06 PM
Is it suppose to be blank? Hot and cold streaks are baseball. I wish Dunner could hit .300 but if he did there is no way the reds could afford him. He would be hitting clean-up for the yankees and raking. :D

Ghosts of 1990
06-14-2008, 01:11 PM
Dunn's a valuable player whose production equals wins. how many of his hits this season have been of the game-winning variety? Come on people.

JayBruce4HOF
06-14-2008, 01:16 PM
I seriously can't believe Reds' fans attempts to analyze Dunn's statistics. You can't take out someone's hot streak, it's that simple. Hey take out Bruce's first week and he's just an average player. You can't pick and choose which statistics to use. He currently has an OPS over .900. Anybody else on this team have that? No. He's streaky, I get it, but his production numbers do not lie. If Dusty knew how to use him in a lineup, he would be an incredible asset to this team, but that is another story. Batting him 2 or 3 would give him better pitches to hit, and help utilize his high walk rate.

Care to calculate his OBP even during his "slumping?" Batting average is not a telling stat. Please don't use selective statistics when making a case. It leads to extremely inaccurate and misleading information.

Come back Homer! :lol:

JayBruce4HOF
06-14-2008, 01:17 PM
Dunn is what he is. Appreciate him for his amazing OBP abilities and stop trying to make him into a Chipper Jones type hitter.

roby
06-14-2008, 01:18 PM
I guess I come down somewhere in the middle of this whole argument. The reds DO have too many streaky hitters who seem to go into a corporate funk. I have never seen a team group-slump the way they do. If you keep an Adam Dunn long-term (and I am certainly not advocating that), you have to have several hitters like Jay Bruce, Jeff Keppinger to keep things consistent. That is why Adam Dunn, Edwin Encarnacion, David Ross, Corey Patterson, and even Brandon Phillips (who I love as a player), stand out as being inconsistent...there are too many of them in one line-up. While the Reds do need to fix their pitching (and they are in the middle of successfully doing just that), they are going to have to acquire a couple more starters who don't run so hot and cold. It's a tall order, but the Reds need to replace two slump-prone regulars with guys who can really hit consistently...one being a good right handed bat with some power. I know that's easier said than done...but, who wants to win?

Blue
06-14-2008, 02:06 PM
quite frankly this is the best post i've ever seen! I've always felt this way, but this has the stats to back it up! props to you RedHawk!

Quite frankly you still don't have the stats to back it up. Even during his April "slump" his OBP was .396. Props to you for having no objectivity.

757690
06-16-2008, 02:40 AM
Please don't use the word forumla. It has statistical overtones, and what he just wrote and what you just thanked him for would get an F in Baseball Statistics 101: These Ones Actually Matter.

Actually, he makes a good point and uses meaningful stats to back it up. However, his argument gets at the heart of one of the problems with Sabermetrics, so I can understand why a fan of stats might reject them.

Basically Sabermetrics works on the assumption that all stats are equal, that is, a walk is worth so many runs, a double is worth so many runs, etc, no matter the context. There is good logic behind that. The season is so long that stats tend to average out over the course of the season. A player walks say 50 times in a season, and those 50 walks usually occur in many different contexts that average themselves out. Therefore, a player who walks 50 times will usually generate X amount of runs, and a player who walks 100 times will usually generate twice that number of runs.

But generating the most number of runs over the season is not the purpose of the game. The purpose of the game is to score more runs than your opponent in every game. Over the course of the season, you want to score at least one more run than your opponent in as many games as possible. Therefore, it is just as important when you score your runs as how many.

For example, if the Reds score 800 runs a year, they will likely win more games if they score 5 runs in each 162 game than if they score 14 runs in fifty games and 1 run in 112 games. When the team score their runs is just as important as how many. Generally run production does seem to average out, but it is not necessary that it does. The 2007 D-Backs are a perfect example. A team that goes on offensive streaks of scoring tons of runs, then has long dry spells will not win as many games as a team that consistently scores runs.

Therefore, players who are consistent are more valuable than those that are streaky, everything else being equal. A player who generates 200 runs, generating 5 runs every week, will help his team win more games than a player who generates 200 runs, 10 in some weeks and zero in others.

So Dunn would be more valuable and help the Reds win more games if he did not go into the long extended slumps that he normally does. And just for the record, Dunn is one of the streakiest power hitters in the game. In his 40 months as a Red, he has 11 months of a 1.000 OPS, 11 months of a .500-.700 OPS, 10 months of a .800 OPS, and 8 months of a .900 OPS. Also, in 5 out of his six full seasons, he has two slumping months where his OPS has dropped at least 200 points, some times close to 500 points.

So the stats that RedHawk presented are meaningful.

That all said, I still think that Dunn is the most productive hitter on the Reds and very valuable. But these stats show that he is not as valuable as his 40 homers and 100 RBI's suggest, and possibly not worth the huge contract it most likely will take to sign him. He still is one of my favorite players, though.

Slyder
06-16-2008, 03:33 AM
He is what he is
and thats all that he is.

He's Adam "Bleepin" Dunn

Thats all.

improbus
06-16-2008, 08:01 AM
We can look at Dunn's 2008 season already and get a good snapshot of Dunn. He was cold to start the season.
April/March (27 games): .791 OPS, 4 HR, 11 RBI's.

But then he was hot in May: 1.120 OPS, 10 HR's, 25 RBI's

Now he is Ice Cold in June: .870 OPS, 4 HR's, 7 RBI's (.150 average)

Now, let's cross reference that with the Reds win loss record.

April/March: 12-17 (outscored by 15 runs)
May: 15-12 (outscored by 4 runs)
June: 6-9 (outscored by 16 runs so far)

Now, I'm not naive enough to believe that Dunn is the only reason for this inconsistency. But, Dunn's numbers do not happen in a vacuum. If Dunn is your offensive key, you have to understand that your offense is going to be up and down in extreme ways and that that will have a dramatic effect on the team.

Also, I constantly hear the complaint that Dusty doesn't know where to put Dunn. Well, neither did MacKanin, nor Narron, nor Miley, nor Boone. That seems a little telling.

mroby85
06-16-2008, 11:16 AM
Quite frankly you still don't have the stats to back it up. Even during his April "slump" his OBP was .396. Props to you for having no objectivity.

Why doesn't it surprise me that your signature says "fire dusty" lets not blame are high profile players like adam dunn, lets blame it on the guy in the dugout. You can say what you want but those statistics are extreme and you can't do that with every player in baseball like people are saying. I think it would be hard to find a 50 game stretch for most productive hitters where they're batting 176. how do you consistently win games when you're terrible 50/80 games? Signing Adam Dunn long term would be one of the worst moves this team could make if you ask me.

Hondo
06-16-2008, 03:46 PM
Wow, considering the oposing team chooses when and how they pitch to Dunn, because of the people batting in front and behind him... For the LAST 7 years...

Put Manny or Alex behind him and see what Happens...

He is basically the Only hitter the oposing team has to Pitch around... I wonder if you Stats lovers can figure out how many actual pitches he gets to hit a year, or per game, or per At Bat...

Lockdwn11
06-16-2008, 04:51 PM
I have thought for a long time that Adam Dunn doesn't goes into slumps he just goes into really hot spells and then goes back to normal but that just how I see it.

JayBruce4HOF
06-16-2008, 04:54 PM
OBP never sleeps.

Lockdwn11
06-16-2008, 05:05 PM
OBP never sleeps.

I agree, Thats why I said what I said above . Dunn has a very good eye at the plate and that is his value but he isn't a very good hitter he hits for power when he make contact but he doesn't make much contact until he goes into one of the hot spells that he goes into 3-4 times a year when he make more consistant contact and that is why he Ks so much but the numbers are there at the end. It is really a strange thing to watch how he can look so good even great for a week or two hell sometimes a month and then look so bad the rest of the time.

JayBruce4HOF
06-16-2008, 05:07 PM
That's why Dunn REALLY should be in the two-hole. Look at his career offensive numbers in the two-hole compared to everywhere else.

Putting him in the two-hole takes the best advantage of his ability to get on base rather than asking him to become a Vlad Guerrero type hitter which he simply is not.