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Kc61
06-15-2008, 12:04 PM
Top ten prospects lists mix too many things. Long term upside guys, close to the majors guys, 18 year olds, 26 year olds.

Try this. Who are the five prospects with the best chance of becoming good Reds players?

Emphasize near certainty of becoming good major leaguers. If there's a high degree of uncertainty that's a big negative (even if the upside is high). But an expected good player, not a scrub. Obviously, higher level or more established prospects benefit from this formula.

Mine are:

Alonso, Frazier, Roenicke, Thompson, Valaika.

JaxRed
06-15-2008, 12:07 PM
Given the parameters.... hard to argue that 5

RedlegJake
06-15-2008, 12:37 PM
You named the "first" five for me, too, but I think you can tab 5 more that are close to that level and could fight to be squarely in that mix by season's end:

Jukich, Mesaraco, Francisco, Cumberland, Lotzkar

OnBaseMachine
06-15-2008, 12:44 PM
Like Kc, I also think Alonso, Frazier, Roenicke, Thompson, and Valaika are the safest bets to become good major leaguers. Alonso and Frazier are exactly what this team needs - good power and ability to take walks and get on base. Roenicke profiles as a shut down setup guy/closer. Thompson looks like a future #2/3 starter and Valaika as a guy who can play three or four different positions and just flat out hit.

lollipopcurve
06-15-2008, 01:06 PM
Alonso, Frazier, Roenicke, Thompson, Valaika.

The only one I really question here is Thompson. Not sure who I'd put in his place -- probably Stubbs (because I think his defense and OBP are safe bets). For me, Thompson's injury history is significant, he's more a pitchability than stuff guy (hard to get real optimistic about those guys doing well in Cincy), and he's never put together a full season of well above average performance. I hope I'm wrong, but he's still got a ways to go to make a true believer of me.

Blue
06-15-2008, 01:07 PM
Interesting concept. I think you pretty well nailed it.

Kc61
06-15-2008, 03:07 PM
The only one I really question here is Thompson. Not sure who I'd put in his place -- probably Stubbs (because I think his defense and OBP are safe bets). For me, Thompson's injury history is significant, he's more a pitchability than stuff guy (hard to get real optimistic about those guys doing well in Cincy), and he's never put together a full season of well above average performance. I hope I'm wrong, but he's still got a ways to go to make a true believer of me.


I agree, Thompson was the hardest one for me to pick, perhaps I was moved a bit by last night's outing (always dangerous, I know). But I'd have to assume that, even if he slides back a bit, he could be a good reliever in some role. So I think he makes the top five.

After that five, I have trouble coming up with many who fit this particular description. I think Mesoraco is sufficiently highly touted to be next, even at this youthful age. I think Sean Watson is another who would make the top ten here.

Guys like Francisco and Lotzkar have very high upsides, but too much bust potential for this particular list. If one were to have an "upside" list, they would be make the top ten for sure.

Mario-Rijo
06-15-2008, 03:28 PM
I definitely think Cumberland is starting to look the part, I would consider him for the next 5. But again I think you're 5 is as good as any.

Kc61
06-15-2008, 09:56 PM
I definitely think Cumberland is starting to look the part, I would consider him for the next 5. But again I think you're 5 is as good as any.

I agree on Cumberland for the top ten. Possibly Herrera too, he could be a "good" major leaguer if used correctly.