Olney says Reds firesale is ready to begin

[OnBaseMachine]

Buster Olney just said on Baseball Tonight that Walt Jocketty is ready to have a firesale and has told other teams he's ready to deal. Olney mentioned Arroyo, Dunn, and Griffey as the main three on the block. It's obvious this team is going no where this season so why not start dealing. The Reds have a good young nucleus of talent and hopefully Jocketty can add to it with some nice trades. Shortstop, catcher, and a center fielder should be targeted return right now IMO.

[Highlifeman21]

Kurkjean mentioned something similar on Mike & Mike this morning.

Said the Reds are big time sellers and to expect them to start selling soon.

Griffey was the only name mentioned, and he talked about the Rays as the leading target, but added that Griffey is marginally better than Hinske, Floyd or Gomes, and why would the Rays want to spend so much money for a marginal upgrade.

And then Kurkjean went on to wax about the Randolph firing.

[VR]

http://sctv.org/characters/farmfilmreport/farmfilmreport.gif

Blow it up real good.

[Spring~Fields]

Buster Olney just said on Baseball Tonight that Walt Jocketty is ready to have a firesale and has told other teams he's ready to deal. Olney mentioned Arroyo, Dunn, and Griffey as the main three on the block. It's obvious this team is going no where this season so why not start dealing. The Reds have a good young nucleus of talent and hopefully Jocketty can add to it with some nice trades. Shortstop, catcher, and a center fielder should be targeted return right now IMO.

If true, he is looking to free up some payroll just like the majority thought he would.

How accurate is Olney on these types of remarks?

[Kc61]

Sounds like the Reds want to sell unwanted contracts and free agents. Don't expect Josh Beckett in return.

[IslandRed]

Kurkjean mentioned something similar on Mike & Mike this morning.

Said the Reds are big time sellers and to expect them to start selling soon.

Frankly, I think we're already selling; we're just waiting on buyers who are ready to do more than kick the tires.

[WVRedsFan]

Mixed signals. Jocketty says he's still analyzing talent and not considering any firesale and then Olney and others come out with this. Which is it?

I'd have to believe any competent GM who has watched this team for the last two months would surmise that a complete overhaul is needed, and yet Walt says we're still in the central race?

I don't much about Jocketty except his success at St. Louis, but both the owner and the GM say they want to win now and the grapevine says firesale. I don't get it.

(BTW, I'm hoping for firesale. I've had enough of this dog and pony show the last 7+ years.)

[Spring~Fields]

Frankly, I think we're already selling; we're just waiting on buyers who are ready to do more than kick the tires.

What happens if the buyers don't want outfielders, and want young pitching with an upside instead, that has some promise for a future at lower cost?

[HokieRed]

I don't think there's much doubt that Walt is selling and that he knows we're more likely to lose 100 games than contend in the Central. Let the sales begin.

[reds44]

What happens if the buyers don't want outfielders, and want young pitching with an upside instead, that has some promise for a future at lower cost?
You don't firesale your young pitchers, that's what you are looking for in return. Volquez, Cueto, and Thompson aren't going anywhere.

Bailey I could see being dealt.

[Degenerate39]

About the only players I hope that aren't in this firesale are: Phillips, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, Burton. And Keppinger and Votto could be on that list.

Start building for the future Jock

[Spring~Fields]

You don't firesale your young pitchers, that's what you are looking for in return. Volquez, Cueto, and Thompson aren't going anywhere.

Bailey I could see being dealt.

I know the first part, but what if the market wants young pitching and not expensive outfielders or questionable infielders that make a lot errors? Just saying, seems like the other GM's are looking for the same type of help with pitching at a premium as it has been.

[Unassisted]

What happens if the buyers don't want outfielders, and want young pitching with an upside instead, that has some promise for a future at lower cost?They're selling down to the bare walls! I think firesale means "touchable" Harang goes with Griffey to make the deal palatable for whoever takes Jr. :(

[Spring~Fields]

About the only players I hope that aren't in this firesale are: Phillips, Bruce, Volquez, Cueto, Burton. And Keppinger and Votto could be on that list.

Start building for the future Jock

I am like each of you hoping that Jocketty can keep the most hopeful younger players, the ones that bring some excitement and energy to the team and to the fan base.

[RedlegJake]

Jocketty doesn't like the term firesale I'd imagine. That implies to fans selling/trading off players without thought of return, just to save payroll, without any other plan or purpose. And coming right out and saying "we're giving up on this season" wouldn't be very smart marketing wise.

First I'd imagine Walt wants to move Arroyo for payroll reasons going forward. Junior for both payroll and because it opens Bruce's natural spot. Dunn for future payroll, too. Jocketty wants room to move, to build his own team on the core he's pretty much identified. The difference with Walt is that I trust him to have a clue on how to best allocate dollars that are freed up by moves. The only question for me is whether Castellini stays the heck out of it and lets Walt do his job. Whatever Jocketty says I think the trade furor is coming and between that and promotions from the minors we won;t recognize much of the team come next spring...or maybe come August.

[fearofpopvol1]

I've found Olney to be pretty reliable, so I'm betting there is some truth to this.

However, BCast has openly said he thinks this team will compete this year (which would obviously conflict with Walt's view). None of us really know what is going to happen.

I'm guessing the real answer lies somewhere in the middle. I think the Reds will be sellers, but they'll continue to hope for improvement and wait for another month before actually doing it. I'd be shocked if any of those names were dealt before the All Star Break.

[klw]

Arroyo a Phillies target?

• Phretting in Philly: With the help of a number of clubs that have spoken with the Phillies, we've assembled this shopping list of starting pitchers it appears they've at least kicked tires on: Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo and (surprisingly) Jarrod Washburn. Bedard just hit the market, so you can add his name any minute now. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3451863&type=story

[Degenerate39]

Arroyo a Phillies target?
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3451863&type=story

Maybe the Phillies and Yankees can start a bidding war for Arroyo. Get as many good prospects as possible if this is the case.

[Spring~Fields]

The difference with Walt is that I trust him to have a clue on how to best allocate dollars that are freed up by moves.

Yes, a big difference and with the ownership support within their financial parameters.

[Caveat Emperor]

I'm honestly OK with trading anyone other than Volquez and Bruce, provided the return is right.

This is the time of year where the internal scouting really earns their paychecks. Right now, they have to be ready to make a call on whether Cueto is going to take the next step and become a reliable starter. If that answer is no, he gets dealt now while his value is perceived to be on the rise. Right now is the time to make a call on whether Edwin is going to turn a corner. If the answer is no, the time to deal is now.

Etc.

[GAC]

The problem with this team is we have been in perpetual motion trying to get from point A to point B. It's like being trapped in Groundhog Day.

[fearofpopvol1]

Jocketty is not scared to make deals. Krivsky wasn't scared I don't think, but he was pretty damn cautious, for better or worse.

I've heard the Yanks want to try to pursue Bedard.

[Caveat Emperor]

The problem with this team is we have been in perpetual motion trying to get from point A to point B. It's like being trapped in Groundhog Day.

Really, that has more to do with failure to face reality. Everyone knows point A sucks. Everyone wants to be at point B. Nobody wanted to do the things necessary to get to that point.

Jocketty knows what it takes to build a winner, and I have to imagine that he has the complete confidence of Casty due to their previous working relationship. He won't be afraid to make waves, sell off talent, and do an outright rebuild in HIS model of success because he knows that was what he was brought in to do.

Shockingly, I also wouldn't be surprised to see Dusty be given his walking papers at the end of the year and replaced with a Jocketty guy.

This is Jocketty's team, and he's in the process now of making the on field product reflect his vision.

[guttle11]

Firesale overload.

But this one might be different. Jocketty may have always played the buyer in these moves, but I believe he knows the dance well. I think he'll get some value in any future trades.

And for once, the Reds have quality prospects to add to the mix over the next year or two.

[SMcGavin]

Isn't the firesale something you do when your team is old and you want to acquire a new nucleus of young guys? We've already got the young nucleus. We should be adding the complimentary parts to go around them, not trading those types of guys away.

[Spring~Fields]

The problem with this team is we have been in perpetual motion trying to get from point A to point B. It's like being trapped in Groundhog Day.

That is very true, I think the past front office and current has tried to tell us, but, we did not want to hear that the economics and finance of the game has passed smaller cities and their baseball teams up. Kind of like when the new interstate goes in, and some towns either adapt or fade away in being viable, they still exist, but viable no. I think that the team did tell the fans that the money to do the big city deals are just not there for this franchise, perhaps that is why it stays "Groundhog Day"

I thought that was why Krivsky and Castellini at one time appeared to be trying to build the pitching up through trades and the minors, but that was not the case I guess.,

[kaldaniels]

Isn't the firesale something you do when your team is old and you want to acquire a new nucleus of young guys? We've already got the young nucleus. We should be adding the complimentary parts to go around them, not trading those types of guys away.

Last I saw the Reds are one of the oldest clubs in baseball.

[marcshoe]

Last I saw the Reds are one of the oldest clubs in baseball.


And yet as Scooter said, they already have the young nucleus. I'm not sure that what's about to happen will be a real firesale. More of a pruning, maybe. Trimming back some of the older branches and letting the young take shape.

Personally, I'm ready to accept anything. The frustration has finally got to me to the point that I've hardly even watched the games since Griffey hit #600.

[vaticanplum]

It's time for me to re-evaluate where my stock in this team lies. Seriously.

[Caveat Emperor]

It's time for me to re-evaluate where my stock in this team lies. Seriously.

FWIW, I swore that I'd never go to another game again when they traded Aaron Boone.

;)

[SMcGavin]

Last I saw the Reds are one of the oldest clubs in baseball.

And what old players play an important role on this team? Which would bring back any kind of value in a trade? It'll be a short list. You might get a B prospect for Griffey, Weathers, or Affeldt. That's hardly a firesale.

Firesale means the core is being changed... that's Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Edwin, Phillips, etc. You want to flip the old chaff like Griffey/Weathers for a fringe prospect, go for it. That's what all teams who are out of contention do. I'm not ready to go trade guys who can help this team win over the next few years for more prospects.

[vaticanplum]

FWIW, I swore that I'd never go to another game again when they traded Aaron Boone.

;)

You'd have been better off. So I'll keep that in mind when they trade Dunn...

I am genuinely not prepared for the hatred I'm going to feel for this team when they trade Dunn for a bag of baseballs and a cell phone plan. It kinda scares me. But I am starting to think I need to prepare myself.

[vaticanplum]

And what old players play an important role on this team? Which would bring back any kind of value in a trade? It'll be a short list. You might get a B prospect for Griffey, Weathers, or Affeldt. That's hardly a firesale.

Firesale means the core is being changed... that's Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Edwin, Phillips, etc. You want to flip the old chaff like Griffey/Weathers for a fringe prospect, go for it. That's what all teams who are out of contention do. I'm not ready to go trade guys who can help this team win over the next few years for more prospects.

Yes, bingo.

[kaldaniels]

And what old players play an important role on this team? Which would bring back any kind of value in a trade? It'll be a short list. You might get a B prospect for Griffey, Weathers, or Affeldt. That's hardly a firesale.

Firesale means the core is being changed... that's Dunn, Harang, Arroyo, Edwin, Phillips, etc. You want to flip the old chaff like Griffey/Weathers for a fringe prospect, go for it. That's what all teams who are out of contention do. I'm not ready to go trade guys who can help this team win over the next few years for more prospects.

The core you have listed has been here the last 3 years...something isn't working. I'm not advocating getting rid of all of them, but I am not content with the status quo.

[Caveat Emperor]

You'd have been better off. So I'll keep that in mind when they trade Dunn...

I am genuinely not prepared for the hatred I'm going to feel for this team when they trade Dunn for a bag of baseballs and a cell phone plan. It kinda scares me. But I am starting to think I need to prepare myself.

In the Reds defense, the new iPhone does look pretttty sweet.

I'm not worried about Dunn going anywhere unless the deal is beyond right (read: at least TWO bags of baseballs). Remember, Walt Jocketty gave a regular job to Chris Duncan -- who is kinda like a less powerful and less intelligent looking version of Adam Dunn. So, it's pretty obvious that Jocketty doesn't harbor any real animus towards the type of player Adam Dunn is. I don't know that the team is going to be in a hurry to run Dunn out of town when they're already looking at holes to fill in CF, C, SS/3B, and possibly 2 SP.

That's an awful lot of talent to go shopping for.

[vaticanplum]

The core you have listed has been here the last 3 years...something isn't working. I'm not advocating getting rid of all of them, but I am not content with the status quo.

The team isn't winning, so blame the best players?

[Spring~Fields]

You'd have been better off. So I'll keep that in mind when they trade Dunn...

I am genuinely not prepared for the hatred I'm going to feel for this team when they trade Dunn for a bag of baseballs and a cell phone plan. It kinda scares me. But I am starting to think I need to prepare myself.

You’ve been very reserved and conservative lately on the board, while in the past we have read your writings and can see that your are perceptive and have vision. I wish you would share with us your ponderings of late on this team, and what you think that you might see with it. I just get the feeling that your objective thoughts toward this business called the Reds will be within reality as it manifests itself in the time window.

[kaldaniels]

The team isn't winning, so blame the best players?

The best pitcher was not in that core, nor was the best hitter in my opinion. With those 5 guys listed leading the pack, this team has gone nowhere. Moves need to be made, and I'm not talking a Lohse for Malonely deal.

[toledodan]

if we have a firesale it will be hard to convince free agents to come here unless we really overpay.

[SMcGavin]

In the Reds defense, the new iPhone does look pretttty sweet.

I'm not worried about Dunn going anywhere unless the deal is beyond right (read: at least TWO bags of baseballs). Remember, Walt Jocketty gave a regular job to Chris Duncan -- who is kinda like a less powerful and less intelligent looking version of Adam Dunn. So, it's pretty obvious that Jocketty doesn't harbor any real animus towards the type of player Adam Dunn is. I don't know that the team is going to be in a hurry to run Dunn out of town when they're already looking at holes to fill in CF, C, SS/3B, and possibly 2 SP.

That's an awful lot of talent to go shopping for.

They don't need to fill in all those holes. They don't even need to find average guys at CF and C... just guys who aren't terrible. Combine that with a SP who can put up a 5.00 ERA and a couple of useful bullpen arms, and I am confident the 2009 Reds can win.

[kaldaniels]

I'm honestly OK with trading anyone other than Volquez and Bruce, provided the return is right.

This is the time of year where the internal scouting really earns their paychecks. Right now, they have to be ready to make a call on whether Cueto is going to take the next step and become a reliable starter. If that answer is no, he gets dealt now while his value is perceived to be on the rise. Right now is the time to make a call on whether Edwin is going to turn a corner. If the answer is no, the time to deal is now.

Etc.

Fair enough to say then, that assuming moves are made...we need to let time be the judge before shouting that Walt needs to be fired. I'm with you...the scouts need to step it up and deliver over the next 6 weeks.

[Degenerate39]

You'd have been better off. So I'll keep that in mind when they trade Dunn...

I am genuinely not prepared for the hatred I'm going to feel for this team when they trade Dunn for a bag of baseballs and a cell phone plan. It kinda scares me. But I am starting to think I need to prepare myself.

Agree with all of this. I've been one of the biggest Dunn supporter's on this board. I'd personally love to see him be a career Red but right now I'm not opposed to seeing something done with the team. If the return is good then I'll say trade him :( but only if the return is good. If he does indeed get traded for a bag of baseballs then I'll probably be banned from the site for a while.

[reds44]

Walt names his five untouchables, and we have multiple reports of a pending sale.

This one isn't too hard to figure out.

[SMcGavin]

The best pitcher was not in that core, nor was the best hitter in my opinion. With those 5 guys listed leading the pack, this team has gone nowhere. Moves need to be made, and I'm not talking a Lohse for Malonely deal.

Go ahead and trade all the guys I listed. Then after four years of losing, the prospects you gleaned from those trades will be ready for the bigs. At that point you'll say something like "Volquez/Bruce/Votto/Cueto have been the core for three years of losing... something's not working". And then you'll trade those four for more prospects, and go through the same song and dance four years later.

[Caveat Emperor]

They don't need to fill in all those holes. They don't even need to find average guys at CF and C... just guys who aren't terrible. Combine that with a SP who can put up a 5.00 ERA and a couple of useful bullpen arms, and I am confident the 2009 Reds can win.

1.) The Reds have been looking for "a couple of useful bullpen arms" for the past 5 years. They find one here, two there, but never enough useful ones at the same time to put together anything resembling a competent bullpen.

2.) The problem with baseball talent is that there is a HUGE dropoff from average to the next level down. Plus, going out and looking for low-ceiling guys in the name of filling a roster spot is a terrible way to build a ballclub -- they're the kinds of guys like Corey Patterson who murder your roster with their basements.

3.) Replace Matt Belisle / Homer Bailey / Josh Fogg with a 5.00ERA pitcher THIS year, and the Reds would still be having starting pitching problems.

[kaldaniels]

I'll go on record...

Untouchables - Votto,Philips,Kepp,Bruce,Cueto,EV

Everyone else is dangled. I'm not going to make a stupid trade or give a guy away...but I put their names out there and listen.

Wildcard - Aaron Harang...if the Red's scouts sense he is on the decline, move him and move him now. If they sense he is just going through a tough/unlucky stretch move him up to the untouchables list.

[vaticanplum]

The best pitcher was not in that core, nor was the best hitter in my opinion. With those 5 guys listed leading the pack, this team has gone nowhere. Moves need to be made, and I'm not talking a Lohse for Malonely deal.

You're going to have to name those guys then. Volquez is the best pitcher right now, but there's no question that Harang has been the most valuable pitcher for the Reds the last few years, and he was named. Likewise, Dunn has been the most valuable hitter for this team the last few years by any measurable standard.

If they truly want to blow it up, then yes, it means getting rid of those guys. Fine. If you want to look at what's truly wrong with this team -- money being spent on poor players, bullpen spots being wasted on drivel, a failure to develop an offensive strategy, blowing off starting pitching spots, and talking up defense while addressing it not at all -- then I think it's worth reconsidering getting rid of the few guys who've done their jobs well.

If a firesale is what this teams wants and if it can actually do it right, I'm all for it. That really does mean getting rid of all players who have decent salary, though, and it means sitting tight for 3-4 years...during which time we really don't know what will happen to Bruce or Volquez or Votto or Cueto et al. That doesn't seem to be a reflection of what Castellini wants.

I question the balls (and the wisdom) of Castellini and this organization to have a true fire sale. And a half-flipped fire sale will only put this team further in the hole than it already is.

[kaldaniels]

Go ahead and trade all the guys I listed. Then after four years of losing, the prospects you gleaned from those trades will be ready for the bigs. At that point you'll say something like "Volquez/Bruce/Votto/Cueto have been the core for three years of losing... something's not working". And then you'll trade those four for more prospects, and go through the same song and dance four years later.

I even said...I'm not advocating trading all of them so don't twist my words...but if you want to maintain the status quo core, thats your opinion and I can't change it.

[Caveat Emperor]

Go ahead and trade all the guys I listed. Then after four years of losing, the prospects you gleaned from those trades will be ready for the bigs. At that point you'll say something like "Volquez/Bruce/Votto/Cueto have been the core for three years of losing... something's not working". And then you'll trade those four for more prospects, and go through the same song and dance four years later.

It'd help matters if the Reds hadn't punted so many draft picks in the past few years.

Drew Stubbs looks, for all the world, like the second coming of Chris Dickerson. Homer Bailey would rather be hunting. Ryan Wagner is still trying to figure out how to throw a second pitch for a strike. Chris Gruler's can't give friends and colleagues hi-5 in his new profession without wincing in pain.

With free agency being so thin, you've gotta have a constant pipeline of talent. The Reds drained the top off the system by bringing Cueto, Bruce and Votto to the show. Now, it's a whole lotta nothing at the high minors.

Gaps in the system kill franchises.

[Spring~Fields]

You're going to have to name those guys then. Volquez is the best pitcher right now, but there's no question that Harang has been the most valuable pitcher for the Reds the last few years, and he was named. Likewise, Dunn has been the most valuable hitter for this team the last few years by any measurable standard.

If they truly want to blow it up, then yes, it means getting rid of those guys. Fine. If you want to look at what's truly wrong with this team -- money being spent on poor players, bullpen spots being wasted on drivel, a failure to develop an offensive strategy, blowing off starting pitching spots, and talking up defense while addressing it not at all -- then I think it's worth reconsidering getting rid of the few guys who've done their jobs well.

If a firesale is what this teams wants and if it can actually do it right, I'm all for it. That really does mean getting rid of all players who have decent salary, though, and it means sitting tight for 3-4 years...during which time we really don't know what will happen to Bruce or Volquez or Votto or Cueto et al. That doesn't seem to be a reflection of what Castellini wants.

I question the balls (and the wisdom) of Castellini and this organization to have a true fire sale. And a half-flipped fire sale will only put this team further in the hole than it already is.

:clap::clap:

[kaldaniels]

You're going to have to name those guys then. Volquez is the best pitcher right now, but there's no question that Harang has been the most valuable pitcher for the Reds the last few years, and he was named. Likewise, Dunn has been the most valuable hitter for this team the last few years by any measurable standard.

If they truly want to blow it up, then yes, it means getting rid of those guys. Fine. If you want to look at what's truly wrong with this team -- money being spent on poor players, bullpen spots being wasted on drivel, a failure to develop an offensive strategy, blowing off starting pitching spots, and talking up defense while addressing it not at all -- then I think it's worth reconsidering getting rid of the few guys who've done their jobs well.

If a firesale is what this teams wants and if it can actually do it right, I'm all for it. That really does mean getting rid of all players who have decent salary, though, and it means sitting tight for 3-4 years...during which time we really don't know what will happen to Bruce or Volquez or Votto or Cueto et al. That doesn't seem to be a reflection of what Castellini wants.

I question the balls (and the wisdom) of Castellini and this organization to have a true fire sale. And a half-flipped fire sale will only put this team further in the hole than it already is.

EV and Kepp

[SMcGavin]

I even said...I'm not advocating trading all of them so don't twist my words...but if you want to maintain the status quo core, thats your opinion and I can't change it.

I don't care about "status quo" or changing the culture or any of that junk... what I want is to win. The Reds have had some good players the last few years, but not enough to win. Now those good players are being joined by more good players from the farm system. I think the Reds are a lot closer to winning than the 2008 record indicates.

What I can say with confidence, is that if/when we start trading important pieces like Dunn and Arroyo for next to nothing, I will probably need to take a little break from Redszone.

[WVRedsFan]

My best guess is you're going to see changes in places you do not expect. I imagine Ross, Valentin, and Bako will be traded or DFA's. I can see Freel, Hopper, and spare parts like Hariston, Andy Phillips, Patterson, and LIncoln jettisoned out of here. Outside of Lincoln, I fully expect we'll see Coffey, Weathers, Majewski. and Afeldt either let go or traded. That's a loss of 12 players already.

Shock of shocks, I do not expect Dunn or Griffey will be moved, at least before the end of the season. Dunn is not valued among other teams and Griffey is owed so much by this team in deferred money that no one will take him unless we take a bath. If Dunn refuses to re-sign and if Griffey cannot be moved, Dunn will go FA, but they will not embarrass Griffey by DFA-ing him or not exercising their option. If that's the case Junior will see a reduced role.

Who will replace Freel, Hopper, Ross, Valentin, Bako, Hariston, Patterson and A. Phillips? Other, younger players in time. Until then, some veterans who will be given low-cost contracts. Of that list, only Freel has any trade value, so expect DFA's and the worldwide search for a catcher. If anyone sticks, it ight be Bako, who appears to be less awful than the other two. And there won't be three catchers on this team.

Alex Gonzalez may be back, but he'll be gone as soon as they find a suitor.

I imagine they'll package Coffey, Lincoln, Majewski and Weathers in deals that would include the Freels and Pattersons of the world. Affeldt is a FA after this year. Fogg is a prime DFA condidate and Belisle is a candidate for a package, as is Homer.

Don't discount the fact that Encarnacion could be traded as could Arroyo and even Harang for the right deal, but this is the problem. For too long, we've signed or extended so many who didn't have the ability to really make a difference. We gave extended, big money contracts to Hatteberg (not that much, but you notice he isn't playing anywhere--at least I don't think so), Alex Gonzalez, Ryan Freel, Mike Stanton, Juan Castro (once again, not so big but stupid), and Josh Fogg ($1 million wasted), while we put our bullpen pitching hopes on Weathers (another signing I didn't like), Coffey, and Lincoln (among others--the list is too long). I hope those days are gone and I think they are.

[Wheelhouse]

You'd have been better off. So I'll keep that in mind when they trade Dunn...

I am genuinely not prepared for the hatred I'm going to feel for this team when they trade Dunn for a bag of baseballs and a cell phone plan. It kinda scares me. But I am starting to think I need to prepare myself.

I don't think the return they can get for him is better than the two picks they'd get if they wait and let him walk as a FA. The Reds have 6 players who will leave as FAs after this year--plus it looks like they will find a buyer for Arroyo and Freel, two players with multi year deals. This means: 1) Jocketty is going to have a ton of $$ to spend and 2) the Reds are going to have a MONSTER '09 draft.

[kaldaniels]

It'd help matters if the Reds hadn't punted so many draft picks in the past few years.

Drew Stubbs looks, for all the world, like the second coming of Chris Dickerson. Homer Bailey would rather be hunting. Ryan Wagner is still trying to figure out how to throw a second pitch for a strike. Chris Gruler's can't give friends and colleagues hi-5 in his new profession without wincing in pain.

With free agency being so thin, you've gotta have a constant pipeline of talent. The Reds drained the top off the system by bringing Cueto, Bruce and Votto to the show. Now, it's a whole lotta nothing at the high minors.

Gaps in the system kill franchises.

I agree on 2 things...yes draft picks have been punted. And yes there is a gap in the system.

But is the gap due to negilgence from the Reds...or just a coincidence that those 3 were ready right around the same time. If the average team had Votto,Bruce,then Cueto come up in 3 consecutive years individually...that team probably would be feeling pretty good about themselves. (I'm feeling good about those guys, but I do realize the cupboard is now pretty bare)

[Chip R]

Personally, I think this story is a lot of hooey. We hear the same story every year when the Reds fall on their face early, the national sportswriters start hollering, "Fire sale in Cincinnati!" but it never really happens. Someone like Arroyo may get traded but I'd hardly call that a fire sale.

The Reds have too much money tied up in mediocrity. They are paying Stanton to sit at home and Castro to play in AAA for the Rockies. They have 3 catchers who are making about $6M between them and not a one of them are good enough to be a major league starting catcher. They are paying Patterson $3M and enough has been written about his woes to make a book that would rival War and Peace in length. Hatteberg's making $1.5M to stay at home. Freel is making $3-4M and can't say off the DL. Weathers is making whatever he's making to be a glorified bullpen coach and our other glorified bullpen coach is on the DL. I liked Wayne but those contracts were on his head. But I'm not sure he could even help it. It just seems that whoever is in charge here puts too high a price on mediocrity. I'm not only talking about the GM but ownership, coaches, managers and the media all seem to revel in this mediocrity. I'm not saying these guys aren't useful but this organization - and those who follow it - seems to believe that these guys should be rewarded handsomely for their little spurts of good play and eventually they end up on the bench or down in the minors or on the DL or sitting at home. It's just frustrating to me to see this happen time and again. I just hope Walt hasn't drank enough of the water to do more of the same.

[WVRedsFan]

Personally, I think this story is a lot of hooey. We hear the same story every year when the Reds fall on their face early, the national sportswriters start hollering, "Fire sale in Cincinnati!" but it never really happens. Someone like Arroyo may get traded but I'd hardly call that a fire sale.

The Reds have too much money tied up in mediocrity. They are paying Stanton to sit at home and Castro to play in AAA for the Rockies. They have 3 catchers who are making about $6M between them and not a one of them are good enough to be a major league starting catcher. They are paying Patterson $3M and enough has been written about his woes to make a book that would rival War and Peace in length. Hatteberg's making $1.5M to stay at home. Freel is making $3-4M and can't say off the DL. Weathers is making whatever he's making to be a glorified bullpen coach and our other glorified bullpen coach is on the DL. I liked Wayne but those contracts were on his head. But I'm not sure he could even help it. It just seems that whoever is in charge here puts too high a price on mediocrity. I'm not only talking about the GM but ownership, coaches, managers and the media all seem to revel in this mediocrity. I'm not saying these guys aren't useful but this organization - and those who follow it - seems to believe that these guys should be rewarded handsomely for their little spurts of good play and eventually they end up on the bench or down in the minors or on the DL or sitting at home. It's just frustrating to me to see this happen time and again. I just hope Walt hasn't drank enough of the water to do more of the same.

:clap:

Bravo!

My hope is also in a change for the better with Jocketty and I really expect it. Thre is no way he do worse with his track record. For the record, the problem is not the Dunns and Griffeys right now, it's the other mediocre parts that find their way into the daily lineup because there is no one else to put in.

I have faith. Please, let's never give a $4.6 million contract to another player who wouldn't even fit on a last place club. Let's never sign a Josh Fogg because he's avaliable or give a lucrative contract to a super sub who gets hurt for 75 games a year. Please.

[mth123]

Isn't the firesale something you do when your team is old and you want to acquire a new nucleus of young guys? We've already got the young nucleus. We should be adding the complimentary parts to go around them, not trading those types of guys away.

Agreed. I'm not convinced that the talk of a fire sale is more than a dumping of some pricey players who aren't really important to this team's present. If the Reds are going to market with Freel, Patterson, Weathers and Fogg, no one thinks much of it. Add Griffey's name and it gets called a fire sale. Dumping all these guys for nothing really doesn't change the current team's ability to compete (though turning the page on JR provides an oppportunity for immedieate improvement on offense, defense and through improved defense, pitching).

I'm not convinced that "fire sale" is the right term. I'll believe Arroyo and Dunn are traded when I see it. Jocketty's history is dealing for guys like that as opposed to trading them away.

[Ron Madden]

Personally, I think this story is a lot of hooey. We hear the same story every year when the Reds fall on their face early, the national sportswriters start hollering, "Fire sale in Cincinnati!" but it never really happens. Someone like Arroyo may get traded but I'd hardly call that a fire sale.

The Reds have too much money tied up in mediocrity. They are paying Stanton to sit at home and Castro to play in AAA for the Rockies. They have 3 catchers who are making about $6M between them and not a one of them are good enough to be a major league starting catcher. They are paying Patterson $3M and enough has been written about his woes to make a book that would rival War and Peace in length. Hatteberg's making $1.5M to stay at home. Freel is making $3-4M and can't say off the DL. Weathers is making whatever he's making to be a glorified bullpen coach and our other glorified bullpen coach is on the DL. I liked Wayne but those contracts were on his head. But I'm not sure he could even help it. It just seems that whoever is in charge here puts too high a price on mediocrity. I'm not only talking about the GM but ownership, coaches, managers and the media all seem to revel in this mediocrity. I'm not saying these guys aren't useful but this organization - and those who follow it - seems to believe that these guys should be rewarded handsomely for their little spurts of good play and eventually they end up on the bench or down in the minors or on the DL or sitting at home. It's just frustrating to me to see this happen time and again. I just hope Walt hasn't drank enough of the water to do more of the same.

:beerme: Very true and very well said.

Every time we get a good back up player to come off the bench Marty, Hal, radio sportstalk host and callers want them to play everyday.

These guys get in the everyday line up play good for a few weeks and boom they are signed to over priced long term contracts. Then we realize just why they were "bench players" to begin with.

[Ltlabner]

Every time we get a good back up player to come off the bench Marty, Hal, radio sportstalk host and callers want them to play everyday..

I'll say this, your skill at working a Marty rip into threads that have nothing to do with him is pretty impressive.


Firesale?

Bleech.

Either they will atempt a middling half-hearted firesale which woln't acomplish much and doom us to even more years of misery.

Or they will burn it to the ground just when there was a nice kernal of tallent starting to give me hope. Serriously, if you can't build a winning team around Dunn, Phillips, Votto, Harang, Bruce, EE, Burton, Volquez and Cordero then I'm not really sure why you'd call yourself an MLB GM.

I read "burn it to the ground" to read everybody of any importance is sent packing. Why you'd do that now, when we are finally on the cusp of being able to do something is beyond me.

So we can "be ready to compete in 2012". Yawn.

EDIT: This assumes Busters rumor report is true. As someone else mentioned, we hear someone yell "FIRE!" in the Reds movie theater quite often.

[GAC]

Jocketty knows what it takes to build a winner, and I have to imagine that he has the complete confidence of Casty due to their previous working relationship. He won't be afraid to make waves, sell off talent, and do an outright rebuild in HIS model of success because he knows that was what he was brought in to do.

I hope you're right Caveat. I know that is what most are counting on... Jocketty's track record and experience. That he will FINALLY be the guy to put it ALL together.

Each of our previous GMs had added some quality players to this current team. Of course we've also had three of them over the course of the last few years too. But each has failed to take what we have and build on it to take us to that next level.

The difference NOW is we're counting on a guy who has sound, previous GM experience.

I'm fully behind Jocketty. What have we really got to lose at this point?

But I have some "questions" (apprehension) about the guy in the back of my mind that I am, for now, basically putting on hold until I see what the guy starts to do and what direction he begins to take.

He deserves that much from the fans.

But my apprehension comes from why a very successful organization (St Louis), that he helped to restore/build, basically parted ways with the guy two short years after winning the WS?

I've read numerous reasoning's... the Cards are moving more in the direction of sabermetrics/stat analysis, and that tensions arose between DeWitt and Jocketty since Jeff Luhnow was promoted to vice president of amateur scouting and player development, placing him in charge of the draft and supervision of the farm system. And the feeling was that Jocketty's "old school" approach sooner or later will catch up to an organization, and maybe had....

Regardless of his past "successes".... McGwire, Edmonds, Rolens, and Wainwright, among others. And his ability to temporarily grab a "piece" to help them... Clark in 2000, Walker in 2004, and even marginal Jeff Weaver, who proved invaluable in the post-season a couple years ago..... he hadn't made any major acquisitions for the Cards over the last two years.

I'm no expert on Jocketty. I've read where many say his "weak point" is his drafting, farm system, and player development. But that may not be true at all. Check out this article which states that since 1995 the Cards have been among the best....

http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/569616.html

But with me you come to the other main issue.... Bob Castellini.

He came from the Card's organization. And while many Red fans hate the Cards as far as being a division rival, we have to respect their organization (they way it's ran/structured) and their fanbase.

Some like him because of his public, expressed desire to win and that he hates losing. I read an article last month that referred to him as a "little Steinbrenner" as far as their similar dispositions (impatience and temperment).

Steinbrenner (Yanks) took advantage of their market strength and popularity of their team to negotiate really nice cable/TV deals that brought in huge amounts of revenue, and enabled them to have a 200+ mil yearly payroll.

Castellini is not in the same position. So if really believes in this "win now", and looking at the current situation with this team and what is needed, it's going to take a far greater monetary investment/ yearly payroll increase then simply adding a closer. That's a solid first step. But more of that is going to be needed if he seriously wants to WIN NOW.

And one way of achieving that is by clearing out alot of the current payroll and freeing up Walt's ability to enter the market and spend.

Walt can either..... allow a alot of these current players on this roster to play out the '08 season when their contracts expire and walk (take draft picks) OR look to trade away some of them where there is interest expressed and try to get a quality return.

Or a mixture of both.

It's just going to be interesting to see what he starts to do as the trading deadline rapidly approaches.

Some may state that there are certain players on this team that are "untouchables". And in Walt's mind there probably are some. I personally could care what he does as long as he can get us to point B. I'm not going to tie a GM's hands because I somehow think this or that player is too invaluable or untouchable.

[GAC]

Personally, I think this story is a lot of hooey. We hear the same story every year when the Reds fall on their face early, the national sportswriters start hollering, "Fire sale in Cincinnati!" but it never really happens. Someone like Arroyo may get traded but I'd hardly call that a fire sale.

The Reds have too much money tied up in mediocrity. They are paying Stanton to sit at home and Castro to play in AAA for the Rockies. They have 3 catchers who are making about $6M between them and not a one of them are good enough to be a major league starting catcher. They are paying Patterson $3M and enough has been written about his woes to make a book that would rival War and Peace in length. Hatteberg's making $1.5M to stay at home. Freel is making $3-4M and can't say off the DL. Weathers is making whatever he's making to be a glorified bullpen coach and our other glorified bullpen coach is on the DL. I liked Wayne but those contracts were on his head.

And all of those players, to the best of my recollection, have their contracts expire at season's end. As well as several others.

You add it all up, as well as if they let Dunn and Jr walk at season's end, and you can free up a lot of payroll.

Of course you also have to figure in those players that may be due up for arbitration going into next season; but the list can't be too big when you can let half the roster walk! :lol:

Walt is going to be in a very unique position IMHO.

[edabbs44]

If done correctly, a "fire sale" doesn't have to knock this team back 4-5 years. Look at Florida. Cincy enough younger players in place to keep the team where it is and only improve from there.

I think that, if true, Walt is doing what this team should have done 3 years ago. Identifying the strong nucleus and building with an eye to when that nucleus hits its prime. If the FO believes this nucleus is 3 years away, then there is little point in carrying Harang, Arroyo, Dunn and Griffey for the next few years or until their contracts run out. Get as much as you can for them, bank the money and spend it when the core is ready. Don't break the bank on a closer for a last place team. Don't extend pitchers when they have no business being extended. Don't pay real money to FAs if you don't expect them to be here when the winning begins.

Most importantly, get upper level prospects in return in trade. Don't get A ball players unless they are top flight guys...get people who are ready to contribute in the next couple of years. The Marlins had a "fire sale" a couple of years ago and got guys like Hanley in return. That's the return you need. Not guys who are years away.

And when you draft, draft guys who are close to the majors, not HS catchers and project outfielders. I took a lot of garbage on this board over the past few years when I would bash every little stupid transaction they made, but add up the money that Wayne spent on this team in FA acquisitions and extensions and you could probably draft the BPA in every round for a couple of drafts in a row without materially impacting the final performance of the major league ballclub. Think about that statement and tell me it isn't true.

Walt needs to pick a year and stick to it...if that year is 2010, 2011 or whenever, he needs to make every move with that point in time in mind.

I've been saying this for a while now. Nothing has changed.

[MikeS21]

In reading through this thread, I think we need to be reminded of a few facts:

1) If you trade junk, you will get junk in return. You are not going to trade folks like Patterson, Griffey, Freel, Weathers, Fogg, or Valentin and get back major league ready young studs.

2) I wouldn't worry about the Reds trading Adam Dunn. No one is going to give up any value for him when they can wait about six months and then sign him as a FA. And I believe Dunn's greatest value to this team is the couple of draft picks he will net us in the '09 draft (provided my next point gets addressed ASAP).

3) Jocketty needs to investigate the scouting/development/coaching issues that surround Homer Bailey. Because you have to wonder if some of those same issues aren't affecting Johnny Cueto. Until this hole gets plugged, I'm not sure this organization is capable of producing major league talent out of its farm system.

[Matt700wlw]

Mixed signals. Jocketty says he's still analyzing talent and not considering any firesale and then Olney and others come out with this. Which is it?



Jocketty, like most GMs isn't going to show his hand....

[mth123]

I'm not in favor of a fire sale. I'd plan on keeping Arroyo and Dunn. Same for Harang and Cordero. Now if an offer I can't refuse came along, sure trade them or anyone, but the team simply does not need to be burnt to the ground. Add Bruce, Cueto, Volquez, Burton, Bray and Phillips to those guys and its a nice core. I'd probably be willing to shop Votto or EdE (but not both) since Alonso and Frazier look like possible replacements, but the return would need to fix some problems. I'd deal Bailey if he still has 2006 level value in return (doubtful). Otherwise, I keep him and let him grow up. A good dose of maturity and a pitching coach who really understands how to get his mechanics starightened out and I still think he can be a good pitcher down the line. I'd keep Keppinger and Hairston and maybe even Hopper to fill a spot for cheap.

I'd be looking to clear dead wood as opposed to a fire sale. Priority number one is to deal Griffey. Forget talent in return. Try to recoup as much of that buy-out price off the budget for 2009. Trade him for some other bad contract that expires after 2008 without a buyout attached. The board revolted against Jo Jo's Richie Sexson idea, but it could possibly have accomplished that 2009 savings. Next, I'd deal Weathers. If they can get them back and in the line-up to show some health, I'd be marketing Freel and Gonzalez real hard. Gonzalez, Freel and Griffey's buyout equate to $14 Million already committed to the 2009 budget. That should just about pay for retaining Adam Dunn. Griffey's salary should cover the raises due Harang and Arroyo. The dollars the team has already eaten in Stanton, Castro, and Hatteberg should finance Phillips raise. Trimming Patterson, Coffey, Weathers, Ross, Valentin, Bako, and Mercker frees up about $12 Million. That should pay a few other raises and give Walt a little room to make moves. Failed number 5's, Josh Fogg and Matt Belisle, account for another $2 Million plus.

With a little money in his pocket, Walt should do what he does best and go shopping for guys to fill his specifc needs. In addition to either EdE or Votto, a limited sell-off of the minor leaguers would be appropriate. I'd probably shop Stubbs, Valaika, Maloney and Francisco in order to acquire some major league talent. Some combination of that group packaged with say EdE ought to be able to net a decent veteran starter, maybe a catcher who is better than a black hole on offense and defense or a solid but not spectacular OF. I'd still be looking to SF. Kevin Correia in the rotation and Bengie Molina behind the plate would improve the picture for this team a lot. Maybe Randy Winn would be a decent OF to put out there with Dunn and Bruce in 2009.

This team is fixable without burning it to the ground. A lot of the chaff on the roster is taking up a lot of the 2009 payroll but the core appears solid IMO.

[jojo]

And what old players play an important role on this team? Which would bring back any kind of value in a trade? It'll be a short list. You might get a B prospect for Griffey, Weathers, or Affeldt. That's hardly a firesale

Getting a B prospect for any of those guys might be optimistic.

[CrackerJack]

I miss Uncle Carl!

[Chip R]

And all of those players, to the best of my recollection, have their contracts expire at season's end. As well as several others.

You add it all up, as well as if they let Dunn and Jr walk at season's end, and you can free up a lot of payroll.

Of course you also have to figure in those players that may be due up for arbitration going into next season; but the list can't be too big when you can let half the roster walk! :lol:

Walt is going to be in a very unique position IMHO.


Freel's contract is at least through next year. As for the others, my fear is that the Reds re-sign them. I'm not opposed to keeping one of the three catchers around as a backup but not all three at $6-8M per year for all of them. The Reds don't need several Ryan Freel/Jerry Hariston, Jr./Norris Hopper players. One would suffice. I'm all for veteran leadership from the older players - especially in the bullpen but there comes a time when the young guys have to sink or swim on their own. A guy like Burton has had the wisdom of David Weathers for 2 years after this season. Does he really need another one? I'm sure he's an expert at giving a hotfoot by now. I know even the best teams have mediocre players on it but it seems like the Reds have too many and I'm tired of it.

[REDREAD]

First I'd imagine Walt wants to move Arroyo for payroll reasons going forward. .


I think Arroyo is one of the few trading chips that the Reds are willing to part with that will actually bring back something good in return.

Let's be realistic. If we find a taker for Dunn, Jr, or Freel, they aren't going to bring back something that it going to get us excited. ( Dunn may net us an ok return, but it's going to be disappointing considering how highly valued he is here).

Also, when you look at the team's strengths, starting pitching is looking good with Harang, Volquez, Cueto, and some prospects. The position players are not looking good (particularly after this year) .. It makes sense to trade Arroyo for position player help, and he's likely to be in high demand.

[REDREAD]

3.) Replace Matt Belisle / Homer Bailey / Josh Fogg with a 5.00ERA pitcher THIS year, and the Reds would still be having starting pitching problems.

Heck, if you somehow found another Harang or Volquez for that slot, the team would still be bad. The position players are a mess. The offense just doesn't work. (11th in the league in runs scored, despite playing in a bandbox).

I agree that pitching is also a mess (12th in the league in team ERA), but I think that's been inflated by a few bad apples (largely the 5th starter and bullpen).

[REDREAD]

I question the balls (and the wisdom) of Castellini and this organization to have a true fire sale. And a half-flipped fire sale will only put this team further in the hole than it already is.

Not sure I agree with this. There is a perception that an "all out, balls to the wall" fire sale will produce better results. I think this is partly due to the human belief that short term suffering will pay off in the long run.

I think Walt needs to trade the guys that he gets a good return on. Good players that don't have a market right now can be retained. It does no good to trade for Tim Hummels. For example, Arroyo is a logical guy to trade, but if the market doesn't give us good value, it makes sense to keep him, even if Dunn, Jr, EdE and Harang are sent to other clubs (or not retained).

Even though I'm not a huge fan of David Weathers, I will say it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to give him up for nothing either. If nothing else, he serves as a buffer to eat innings and prevent young kids from being rushed.
If we are only offered chaffe for him, might as well keep him. Now, obviously, if we are offered potential ML talent for him, Walt needs to jump on it...

[GAC]

If done correctly, a "fire sale" doesn't have to knock this team back 4-5 years. Look at Florida. Cincy has enough younger players in place to keep the team where it is and only improve from there.

I think that, if true, Walt is doing what this team should have done 3 years ago. Identifying the strong nucleus and building with an eye to when that nucleus hits its prime. If the FO believes this nucleus is 3 years away, then there is little point in carrying Harang, Arroyo, Dunn and Griffey for the next few years or until their contracts run out. Get as much as you can for them, bank the money and spend it when the core is ready.

I agree. But the question is identifying WHO that core is. Our opinions as to who that is doesn't really matter. Only Walt's does. But looking at this current roster, how many would we identify as that nucleus to build around?

Volquez, Cueto, Phillips, Votto, Bruce, Burton, Bray, Cordero, Keppinger. I'll add Encarnacion too; but I have been thoroughly disappointed in his erratic play so far this year.

So there are probably 10 players there. But again, Walt may even decide to trade some of those if the deal is right for this organization. Who is to say he won't?

But still - with only those 10 players that still leaves a pretty hefty void in this 25/40 man roster to fill in the next 2-3 years.

There are two sources to fill those needs.....

farm system and the market.

I am no expert by any means on our farm system. So anyone feel free to chime in and correct me; but when when I look at what position players that may hold promise in this system, I don't see much. That's not saying there aren't some there; but nothing really stands out to me.

Pitchers? We have Maloney, Thompson, and possibly Bailey (if he gets his act together).

I've been following Devin Mesoraco, the catcher drafted by Krivsky, who is currently at Dayton, and he seems to be progressing well. But the article I read on him the other day says they are really taking their time with this kid, due to the critical position of catching, and he could be 3-4 years away. Baseball America ranked him as the 8th best prospect in the organization and the 11th-best prospect in the Gulf Coast League.

I've also read some reports on 19 yr old Neftali Soto, a SS taken as a supplemental third-round Draft pick last June. Baseball America ranked him the 8th best GCL prospect.

You’ll know there’s a change in direction when Louisville has more prospects than career minor leaguers and organizational players on its roster.

The other route... and again, this depends on the direction Jocketty takes.... is going after some established players in the market via FA signings or making trades.

Again, I may be wrong, but I don't see Jocketty as the type of GM who guts a team and goes for a youth movement (aka a Marlins/Tampa Bay).

But more importantly.... what is Walt saying that will appease the impetuousness (impatience) of this owner and gets him to buy into such a plan (whatever it is)? ;)

Wouldn't that mean a complete turn around of Castellini's position, and somewhat of an acknowledgement that he was wrong when he says he wants to win now?

I agree with what you're stating edabbs. And my position has not changed either. Even when Krivsky was hired, and I looked at what was in our system, what needed to be done/accomplished, I saw 2009-10 as the dates when we should see fruit. And until then we were going to take our lumps as we give younger players playing time and watch them develop, and wait out certain bad contracts.

[IslandRed]

I'm not convinced that "fire sale" is the right term.

Agreed. I think people in this thread are having a severe allergic reaction to the phrase. In truth, there's a general consensus of what the Reds are about to do and it doesn't fit the notion of slashing payroll for the sake of slashing payroll.

[Spring~Fields]

I agree. But the question is identifying WHO that core is. Our opinions as to who that is doesn't really matter. Only Walt's does.


A question keeps coming back to my mind, if run differential matters, how much will the payroll differential matter between what Jocketty is use to working with at St. Louis vs the -20 - -25 million differential in payroll in Cincinnati? and will that alter Jocketty's plans?

How will he deal with a FA market that just doesn't have quality even at a price when he might have the money? So if he is left to trading what the Reds might have that other teams want, how will that shake out or balance out?

On top of all that, if his manager does not utilize the players correctly that Jocketty obtains, then where will the gain come from for the team and fans?

[HokieRed]

I think the will is finally there for a true fire sale, house cleaning, culture change, whatever you want to call it. I don't think anybody needs to fear that any of the current three catchers will be resigned; Patterson, Griffey, and Weathers will be gone; I doubt it will be possible to get more for Dunn than we can get in draft picks. Trading Arroyo makes a lot of sense primarily because his contract is large enough that it can be rolled over for a free agent pitcher of at least the same caliber (who wouldn't rather have Lohse?) while we may be able to get a starting prospect who is more on the same time frame as our other young starters. I would not be at all surprised to see Harang go as well, though I think Jocketty will be reluctant to trade both Harang and Arroyo. Freel has some value and I suspect will be traded. Affeldt may be dealt down the stretch to somebody looking for a bullpen arm. If you think, as I do, that Burton can probably close, then Cordero is definitely available. His very large contract could be defended marginally if you thought the team was a contender. It obviously is nowhere near that and so now reinvesting 11.5 in another way makes perfect sense. I expect Walt to be very active and for the team to look very different, which is good since the team can hardly get much worse.

[GAC]

A question keeps coming back to my mind, if run differential matters, how much will the payroll differential matter between what Jocketty is use to working with at St. Louis vs the -20 - -25 million differential in payroll in Cincinnati? and will that alter Jocketty's plans?

It would alter any GM's plans IMHO.

If Castellini, and the other owners, don't OK further payroll increases, then Walt has to clean out payroll under that umbrella they set. And that opportunity does present itself at season's end.


On top of all that, if his manager does not utilize the players correctly that Jocketty obtains, then where will the gain come from for the team and fans?

In his firing. :D

But lets see what he does first with a revamped Jocketty team. What has been currently going on with this team as far as performance-wise cannot be laid solely at the feet of Baker.

A driver can't be expected to compete at Indy with a Yugo. :p:

[RedsManRick]

I think we need to be a little more clear with our terms:

1. Fire-sale: Getting rid of damaged goods at a significantly reduced cost.

2. Rebuilding: Essentially, starting over from scratch, utilizing existing assets to create a new base from which to build.

Often, 2 implies 1. But 1 does not imply 2. The Reds have all or most of their foundation in house already. Unfortunately that young foundation is not surrounded by enough veteran talent to be competitive. Most of the older talent (not "old" necessarily, but post-arb) has significant warts.

The fire-sale the Reds need to go through is not about rebuilding. It's about getting rid of the over-priced filler. Think of the Reds roster as a house in need of renovation. The foundation is solid, but the walls are cracked, the furniture is old and smells, and the ceiling needs replaced. No amount of replacing the appliances and fixtures or repainting the walls will suffice.

[GAC]

Freel's contract is at least through next year.

You're right on Freel.


As for the others, my fear is that the Reds re-sign them.

NOW JUST STOP IT WITH THAT KIND OF TALK! :cool:

Players who contracts are up at season's end.....

The DFAs, such as Stanton, Hatteberg, and Castro. Am I missing someone else?

Guys like Weathers, Belisle, Fogg, Burton, Majewski, Affeldt, Mercker, Lincoln, Coffey, Livingston, Ross, Valentin, Bako, Patterson, Encarnacion, Hairston, Cabrera, Phillips, Hopper, Keppinger all have their contracts up at season's end.

As well as Jr and Dunn.

Obviously some will be resigned.

Thankm God I don't get to make that choice of who stays and who goes. :beerme:

[REDREAD]

Again, I may be wrong, but I don't see Jocketty as the type of GM who guts a team and goes for a youth movement (aka a Marlins/Tampa Bay).
.

I think we're much more likely to see a trade such as this:

Arroyo is traded for a ML corner OF and a AAA 3b with an ETA of 2009.

I really don't expect to see a trade like when we sent Neagle to the Yanks for prospects that weren't expected to be ready for 2-3 years..

Of course, there might be some dead wood that is dealt for prospects simply to clear out space, but I think the more marketable players will be dealt for players that are either currently in the majors or really close.

Cast asked Wayne to build a contender, and 3 years later got a last place team. The fan base is understandably apathetic right now. I think Cast is smart enough to realize that he can't sell the fanbase on the 4th or 5th "rebuilding" process since 2000.

[OldXOhio]

So how many firesales will we have endured this decade once this one's complete?

[reds44]

So how many firesales will we have endured this decade once this one's complete?
This will be the second at the most.

[GAC]

Of course, there might be some dead wood that is dealt for prospects simply to clear out space

I don't know of too many teams that will give up prospects - at least any with any type of promise - for our dead wood. Would you?


Cast asked Wayne to build a contender, and 3 years later got a last place team.

Actually, it was only 2 years ago. He was hired in February of 2006 after a 2 week search by Castellini.

Wanna reminiscence?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2323116

Minnesota's Wayne Krivsky overwhelmed the Cincinnati Red's new owner during an interview Wednesday, then got the job as their next general manager.

Krivsky's hiring ended a two-week search that involved eight candidates and ultimately came down to two -- him and Reds special adviser Jim Beattie. Krivsky's second interview went so well that owner Bob Castellini didn't need any more time to think it over.


"He was totally prepared," Castellini said. "He blew us away."



The fan base is understandably apathetic right now. I think Cast is smart enough to realize that he can't sell the fanbase on the 4th or 5th "rebuilding" process since 2000.

No. But Walt says it's going to take time and patience. So maybe he better tell his good friend Bob to stay the hell away from behind a mike for the next 2-3 years! :D

[REDREAD]

I don't know of too many teams that will give up prospects - at least any with any type of promise - for our dead wood. Would you?


That's what I'm saying.. dead wood might get moved for marginal prospects, not great ones.. just to clear off.. I know I didn't include the word "marginal" but that's what I intended.



Actually, it was only 2 years ago. He was hired in February of 2006 after a 2 week search by Castellini.


But it's been 3 seasons, that's what I meant.. 2006, 2007, 2008..



No. But Walt says it's going to take time and patience. So maybe he better tell his good friend Bob to stay the hell away from behind a mike for the next 2-3 years! :D

I don't know about that. What harm has Bob done behind the mike, other than to tell people he wants to win, and he wants it now..
It's a welcome change from the Lindner admin that had Allen as a bumbling mouthpiece.

I expect Walt to try to improve the W-L record for next year, and the moves will reflect that.. Walt will not try to collect prospects and hope things come together in 3 years.. And Thank God for that. I've had enough of that.

I see Walt attempting to shore up the bullpen and position players. If a few core players need to go, so be it. If that means Dunn is not resigned, I don't care. What we have is clearly not working. I just want to see some W-L improvement next year.

[Spring~Fields]

A driver can't be expected to compete at Indy with a Yugo. :p:

So you're saying that Patterson is a yugo? :D

[LoganBuck]

Firesale? I don't think you can have a fire sale with some of the horrible roster filler on this team. Dunn, Arroyo, and maybe Affeldt and Freel are the only players that hold any sort of value, that can be moved. I don't think they can get enough back for Dunn to justify trading him, but sure move the others.

Walt Jocketty is used to having Dave Duncan as a pitching coach. I can't imagine Dick Pole is too much to his liking.

I think a shakeup is coming. It has to, public pressure will force it. This team needs something to keep the interest of the fans. I am not sure how deep the cuts, but some blood needs to be spilled.

[LoganBuck]

How much interest would Tampa Bay have in Adam Dunn as a rental?

[Scrap Irony]

Can't afford it, according to the Baseball Tonight triumverate.

[Krusty]

Personally, I think this story is a lot of hooey. We hear the same story every year when the Reds fall on their face early, the national sportswriters start hollering, "Fire sale in Cincinnati!" but it never really happens. Someone like Arroyo may get traded but I'd hardly call that a fire sale.

The Reds have too much money tied up in mediocrity. They are paying Stanton to sit at home and Castro to play in AAA for the Rockies. They have 3 catchers who are making about $6M between them and not a one of them are good enough to be a major league starting catcher. They are paying Patterson $3M and enough has been written about his woes to make a book that would rival War and Peace in length. Hatteberg's making $1.5M to stay at home. Freel is making $3-4M and can't say off the DL. Weathers is making whatever he's making to be a glorified bullpen coach and our other glorified bullpen coach is on the DL. I liked Wayne but those contracts were on his head. But I'm not sure he could even help it. It just seems that whoever is in charge here puts too high a price on mediocrity. I'm not only talking about the GM but ownership, coaches, managers and the media all seem to revel in this mediocrity. I'm not saying these guys aren't useful but this organization - and those who follow it - seems to believe that these guys should be rewarded handsomely for their little spurts of good play and eventually they end up on the bench or down in the minors or on the DL or sitting at home. It's just frustrating to me to see this happen time and again. I just hope Walt hasn't drank enough of the water to do more of the same.

Good points Chip. Alot of money tied up in the payroll is dead money. Either they are paying for players who aren't here or players that have very little impact on the team.

If I'm Walt, I move these guys first either via trades or letting them go as free agents. Second would be ridding myself of Dunn and Griffey. Now if Walt has around 30 million freed up for retooling purposes this offseason, it will be interesting to see how he plays free agency. Look at his track record in St. Louis and the acquisitions he has made and that is what we should expect from him this offseason.

[Krusty]

One more note.....this roster has the makings from five GMs (Bowden, Kullman, O'Brien, Krivsky and now Jockerty). It is a roster that has been slapped together with no chemistry and design. Until Jockerty overhauls at least two thirds of the roster and designs it the way he envisions it, it will continue to struggle. At least being friends with the owner buys Jockerty sometime to retool the roster. Hopefully Jockerty has convinced Bob C. that winning won't happen overnight.

[cincyinco]

So you're saying we should expect a team with David eckstein acquisitions?

Also, I love how you call him jockerty. :)

[RedlegJake]

One more note.....this roster has the makings from five GMs (Bowden, Kullman, O'Brien, Krivsky and now Jockerty). It is a roster that has been slapped together with no chemistry and design. Until Jockerty overhauls at least two thirds of the roster and designs it the way he envisions it, it will continue to struggle. At least being friends with the owner buys Jockerty sometime to retool the roster. Hopefully Jockerty has convinced Bob C. that winning won't happen overnight.

This is a really important point. The lack of continuity is maddening. And each "plan" lies incomplete with leftover pieces stuck here and there throughout the system. The Reds aren't cohesive, have talent but don't seem to "fit" together well, the parts don't complement one another. Much of that is the constant changing at the top. 3 owners, 5 GMs, how many managers? Different scouting directors and directors of development, minor league coaching turnover. Give Jocketty the reigns for 5 years. Let him build his team, and hopefully, hire his manager along the way and get the FO and organization's staff set up to his liking. Then, if Walt wants out, hire a successor from his staff who has the same vision to keep it moving the same way.

[*BaseClogger*]

Trade Harang!

[jojo]

I wouldn't be shocked to see Jocketty put Harang on the market.

[Jpup]

Trade Harang!

yeah, that would be a great idea. He's the best pitcher on the club and has been one of the 5 best in the NL for the past 3 years. He's had a few rough starts and even less run support. Trade him, that's an idea.
:thumbdown

[guttle11]

yeah, that would be a great idea. He's the best pitcher on the club and has been one of the 5 best in the NL for the past 3 years. He's had a few rough starts and even less run support. Trade him, that's an idea.
:thumbdown

I don't agree with trading Harang (except in return for a monster, Haren like package), but to be fair, trading him is not about last year or today. It's about tomorrow.

[Raisor]

yeah, that would be a great idea. He's the best pitcher on the club and has been one of the 5 best in the NL for the past 3 years. He's had a few rough starts and even less run support. Trade him, that's an idea.
:thumbdown

You at least take offers for him. There's no need to move him, which means he COULD have a monster return.

[*BaseClogger*]

I think trading Harang is the easiest and best way to fill this teams' many gaping holes. Starting pitching is actually the least of its worries...

[fearofpopvol1]

It would be pretty risky to trade Harang. He's a proven commodity that is signed for reasonable money for several years. I think to make a run, Harang is needed. If you can get some huge haul for him though, then maybe you do it.

Now Arroyo OTOH is someone who should (and probably will be) shopped. Some of the other plays (that are unproven but seem to be promising) in the minors may be the best way to improve this team.

[reds44]

I'm okay with trading Arroyo at his lowest value, but not Harang. Granted, I don't know what the market is for him.

[WVPacman]

Trade Arroyo to Pittsburg for Nady?? Pitt needs pitching bigtime and we need hitting.Does Nady play right field?? if so then he could take Griffry's place next year.Nady can flat out hit and there are rumors that he is on the trading block but I don't know if Pitt would take Arroyo again.They might

[*BaseClogger*]

Trading Arroyo will fill one hole (of C, CF/RF, SS, arms) at best IMO. Trading Harang could potentially fill two or even three of those holes. Here is the rotation as I see it:

Volquez~3.50 FIP
Harang~3.85 FIP
Cueto~4.50 FIP
Arroyo~4.70 FIP
Thompson~???
Bailey~???

Those FIP numbers are the ERA's I would expect from these starting pitchers with a neutral defense in a neutral park. Obviously, the Reds fielders and environment are not conducive to optimal results. We have our ace, and it is Edinson Volquez. It's likely that Cueto, Thompson, and Bailey are likely to improve. I wouldn't mind throwing the money saved on Harang at Derek Lowe, which basically fills the opening created...

[*BaseClogger*]

Trade Arroyo to Pittsburg for Nady?? Pitt needs pitching bigtime and we need hitting.Does Nady play right field?? if so then he could take Griffry's place next year.Nady can flat out hit and there are rumors that he is on the trading block but I don't know if Pitt would take Arroyo again.They might

I doubt the Pirates are interested in Arroyo's contract and IF we are going to acquire a RF instead of a CF and play Jay Bruce in CF the outfielder acquired is going to have to be better than a career .277/.334/.450 hitter, whose contracts runs up at the end of the season, and whose slugging drops by 70 points (!) in the second half over his career...

[WVPacman]

I doubt the Pirates are interested in Arroyo's contract and IF we are going to acquire a RF instead of a CF and play Jay Bruce in CF the outfielder acquired is going to have to be better than a career .277/.334/.450 hitter, whose contracts runs up at the end of the season, and whose slugging drops by 70 points (!) in the second half over his career...

Your right my mistake!! I keep forgetting Bruce is a right fielder.

[HokieRed]

Trading Arroyo can fill two holes if you get the right player, somebody--pitcher, catcher, outfielder--just ready to break in or in the first couple years. Then you get the second player with the rest of Arroyo's salary. My guess is that Jocketty is good enough at this game to get us two for Arroyo.

[GAC]

You at least take offers for him. There's no need to move him, which means he COULD have a monster return.

And that is right up Jocketty's alley.

Never say never. You listen to offers and see what you can get in return.

I personally would rather see Arroyo traded then Harang; but it's not about what we the fans want; but what those other GMs want. I guarantee you they'd want Aaron over Bronson. Better financial contract, better overall performance.

I guarantee that Walt will be listening to offers on both.

It's a daring move I admit. But if it were possible, would anyone trade Harang straight up for Pitt's Jason Bay? He's your RH'd power hitter AND LFer. Next year is his last with Pitt, and I doubt they are going to be able to afford to retain him. The guy is having one heck of an '08 season to boot...

.283 BA 15 Hrs 40 RBIs .393 OB% .524 SLG% .917 OPS

[HokieRed]

I'd be wary of sending anyone to Pittsburgh. They're starting to figure it out and get better. I'd love to have anyone in their outfield.

[Highlifeman21]

I'd be wary of sending anyone to Pittsburgh. They're starting to figure it out and get better. I'd love to have anyone in their outfield.

IMO, they have one of the best producing OFs in all of MLB.

I hope McLouth continues to rake. He could really turn out to be the best of the 3.

[WVPacman]

Trading Harang to Pitt for Bay would be a steal for the Pirates in my opinion.Harang isn't pitching that bad really its the ofense that is costing him the games.Bay on the other hand has been a bust with the exception of that one year.Pitt would jump all over that trade if the Reds would offer it.I would keep Harang anyday over Bay but thats just my opinion.

[WVRedsFan]

Trading Harang to Pitt for Bay would be a steal for the Pirates in my opinion.Harang isn't pitching that bad really its the ofense that is costing him the games.Bay on the other hand has been a bust with the exception of that one year.Pitt would jump all over that trade if the Reds would offer it.I would keep Harang anyday over Bay but thats just my opinion.


Hey Pac, I don't like trading a stud pitcher in my own division, so I wouldn't trade Aaron to Chicago, St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh or anyone in the Central Division. Certainly not the Pirates who seem to own us anyway. That said, we need a bat, but not that bad.

BTW, I guess you'd better change your name or Adam's coming after you. You heard he doesn't want to be called "Pacman" anymore? :)

[OnBaseMachine]

I wouldn't trade Harang for Bay. If the Reds deal Harang it needs to be for a package of two or three studs like Matt Kemp + Chad Billingsley or Charlie Morton + Tommy Hanson + Jason Heyward. I would need a huge return like that for an established top-of-rotation starter like Harang who is signed pretty cheaply for the next three or four years.

[WVPacman]

Hey Pac, I don't like trading a stud pitcher in my own division, so I wouldn't trade Aaron to Chicago, St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh or anyone in the Central Division. Certainly not the Pirates who seem to own us anyway. That said, we need a bat, but not that bad.

BTW, I guess you'd better change your name or Adam's coming after you. You heard he doesn't want to be called "Pacman" anymore? :)

LOL I an't no Adam Pacman Jones fan! I just thought of the word Pacman for some reason when I was signing on this site. If I was a Adam Jones fan then my name would have been Adam the jailbird.;)

[WVPacman]

I wouldn't trade Harang for Bay. If the Reds deal Harang it needs to be for a package of two or three studs like Matt Kemp + Chad Billingsley or Charlie Morton + Tommy Hanson + Jason Heyward. I would need a huge return like that for an established top-of-rotation starter like Harang who is signed pretty cheaply for the next three or four years.


I agree with WVRed,I don't like trading with teams that are in our division b/c that would blow up in our face big time if we would.I also agree with OBM,If we would happen to trade Harang then I want some quality players in return that are ready to play and help this team win.

[Will M]

agree with no harang for bay.

if the pirates trade bay it would likely be for young cheap players - say one A and three B prospects

[HokieRed]

Very serious setback to the organization tonight. Not the score, the fact that Bronson Arroyo now has no trade value whatever and a huge contract that we will not be able to get from under. Devastating contract by Krivsky, justification in itself for his firing.

[MartyFan]

Very serious setback to the organization tonight. Not the score, the fact that Bronson Arroyo now has no trade value whatever and a huge contract that we will not be able to get from under. Devastating contract by Krivsky, justification in itself for his firing.

I loved Krivsky but never, not once did I understand this contract...this is the one that baffles me beyond Stanton and the others...I would hope he had been under pressure to make such a deal from ownership...but I am not so sure.

[HokieRed]

I actually liked much of what Wayne did also, but I think it's hard to overstate how bad tonight is for the future. Arroyo should have been one of Walt's main chips in getting a player and then using the salary to get a second. Now we get nothing. Only thing that makes the night a little brighter is the really good start Maloney had at L'ville.

[Krusty]

There was no reason to sign Arroyo to a longterm contract when he wasn't eligible for free agency at the end of the season.

The Arroyo contract ranks right up there with signing Cormier, Stanton, Castro and signing every journeyman catcher to fill the spot.

[edabbs44]

There was no reason to sign Arroyo to a longterm contract when he wasn't eligible for free agency at the end of the season.

The Arroyo contract ranks right up there with signing Cormier, Stanton, Castro and signing every journeyman catcher to fill the spot.

Yeah, just a pretty bad decision all around.

Except on Bronson's part.

[flyer85]

During his tenure WK did some really good things and some others that just left me scratching my head.

Finding a taker for Bronson is one of the more important tasks that Jocketty has to accomplish.

[HokieRed]

There is now next to no chance to find a taker for Arroyo. It would take half a season of effectiveness from him to even begin to entice a GM to think about taking on that salary. Virtually ensures Adam Dunn is gone as Walt has so few chips with which to deal otherwise.

[REDREAD]

I loved Krivsky but never, not once did I understand this contract...this is the one that baffles me beyond Stanton and the others...I would hope he had been under pressure to make such a deal from ownership...but I am not so sure.

I doubt it. More than like it was 100% Wayne's call. It's time to stop blaming Cast for Wayne's bad moves (not saying that you are).

One of Wayne's weaknesses was that he appeared to indiscriminately extend everyone. Picking up Hat's option when we had Votto in tow and Valentine as a backup made zero sense at all. I don't buy the notion that Hat was signed to trade. Hat was making about 2 million. That's enough money to buy some serious talent in the draft or international market. If that money was spent wisely, it would net better talent than we could ever dream of getting by trading Hat. Wayne loved Hat, Castro, Freel and some others. I don't know why, but he did.

As an example of Cast unfairly getting blame, Wayne himself said that Dusty was "his man", yet some Wayne apologists still insist it was probably Cast's call and Wayne was "forced" to do it.. Despite Wayne trying to rationalize away every mistake he made on the way out.

If DanO or Bowden handed out the Arroyo contract, they'd be raked over the coals (and justifiably so).

[Spring~Fields]

I doubt it. More than like it was 100% Wayne's call. It's time to stop blaming Cast for Wayne's bad moves (not saying that you are).

One of Wayne's weaknesses was that he appeared to indiscriminately extend everyone. Picking up Hat's option when we had Votto in tow and Valentine as a backup made zero sense at all. I don't buy the notion that Hat was signed to trade. Hat was making about 2 million. That's enough money to buy some serious talent in the draft or international market. If that money was spent wisely, it would net better talent than we could ever dream of getting by trading Hat. Wayne loved Hat, Castro, Freel and some others. I don't know why, but he did.

As an example of Cast unfairly getting blame, Wayne himself said that Dusty was "his man", yet some Wayne apologists still insist it was probably Cast's call and Wayne was "forced" to do it.. Despite Wayne trying to rationalize away every mistake he made on the way out.

If DanO or Bowden handed out the Arroyo contract, they'd be raked over the coals (and justifiably so).

Krivsky threads :sleep: