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View Full Version : Am I the only one that sees what's happening to Daryl Thompson?



Kingspoint
06-21-2008, 12:12 PM
2003.....Age 17.....46 IP added to the innings he pitched that year in High School.

2004.....Age 18.....103 IP.

2005.....Age 19.....54 IP. Major Arm Surgery.

2006.....Age 20.....21 IP.

2007.....Age 21.....133 IP.


In order to prevent damaging a pitcher's arm during his developmental years, it's been proven that an appropriate increase in a pitcher's total number of innings pitched from one year to the next remain around 20%...25% tops. After that, it's time to shut him down.

This doesn't even take into account Major Arm Surgery. The 133 IP Thompson threw last year was probably the maximum number of innings that he should have thrown. But, only 2 years removed from the surgery, Thompson's on pace for throwing around 190 Innings. That is way too many innings for this young and inexperienced pitcher. When Thompson gets to 170 Innings pitched this year he should be shut down for the year and his arm be given the chance to recover the rest of the off-season for what it's gone through not only for the 300 Innings pitched over the last two years, but for the amount of pitching that his arm has never done before in a single season.

By the REDS starting Thompson at the Major League Level this early in the season, all indications are is that they intend to use him through the end of September with no inclination to shutting him down. If they do that, then he'll surely reach 190+ innings. You just can't do that and not see bad results down the line, whether it's in 2 years or 4 years, but bad results will surely happen.

Harang was used more than any pitcher in the Majors each of the last 3 years and it's finally caught up with him. He's getting pounded so hard that the only answer to why is because his arm is tired, and the only solution is it needs to be shut down.

Many of you don't know it, but most of you do. Bronson Arroyo has always had below average stamina for a starter. He's always been a 6 or 7 Inning pitcher (90 pitches actually). No amount of stretching out was ever going to make him anything more than that. The last two years he was used too often on the season for too many innings and each start he was used for too long. The damage has been done and Arroyo is also getting pounded because of a tired arm. His only solution is to be shut down also.

Harang would have been fine with 210 Innings each year, but those extra 20 innings were too much. Arroyo would have been fine with 190 Innings each year, but the extra innings by him were too much. Now, the REDS are going to use Thompson for too many innings this year, and probably next year, too. Dick Pole doesn't take care of his pitchers properly. We've all seen it. It's time to get a better pitching coach in here at the Major League level or it doesn't matter how many prospects we have. All of them will be worthless after three years in the Majors.

James B.
06-21-2008, 06:19 PM
If the Reds shut down Thompson, Harang, and Arroyo who is going to be in their rotation?

gedred69
06-21-2008, 07:37 PM
Thompson started today because there was no other real option, period. Anybody got any better ideas? Fogg? Homer? Affeldt for 2-3 innings maybe? Maloney? C'mon, Thompson was the best option, and he appointed himself Okay. A little luck, yeah, but it ended with a win! He may well head back to Louisville, but he will always be able to tell his offspring, "I shut out the mighty Yankees in my MLB debut!!

Old NDN
06-21-2008, 10:42 PM
If he turns out to be a viable solution to the #5 spot, maybe the Reds could monitor him a lttle more closely. ie. skippng his turn when off days allow, using somebody else occasionally, or controlling the number of pitches in a game. It's not like we are in the hunt for anything but battling to stay out of last place. We don't seem to have too many other options at this point.

OUReds
06-21-2008, 10:47 PM
There will be pitchers that the Reds will want to evaluate in September (Bailey, possibly Jukich and Maloney). There will be an opportunity to shut Thompson down should the Reds choose to do so.

There will be plenty of time to complain about overuse if it actually happens.

NarrowStairs
06-21-2008, 10:55 PM
Thompson's arm will be fine

LouisvilleCARDS
06-21-2008, 11:05 PM
Some guys work longer than others. I don't see how its "proven" that someone needs to be shut down. Go tell Nolan Ryan that. He was throwing heat and an iron man for 20 plus years. It's a catch 22, anyone who ever works a lot of innings and is successful, when they eventually have a down year, which usually happens unless you're a Hall of Fame pitcher - its blamed on pitch count.

Va Red Fan
06-21-2008, 11:13 PM
Now some are finding ways to complain about problems that might occur? Give me a break and celebrate that this young pitcher, who seemed to be a toss in for a deal that most of the people on this board hated, pitched five nice innings today. How can you assume that they are going to abuse his arm? How do you know how many innings are ideal? Are you in the training room? Are you his doctor? Pitiful.

TDHND
06-21-2008, 11:34 PM
he did a great job especially against that lineup

demas863
06-22-2008, 02:11 PM
You are 100% correct but you will only get agreement (and griping about management. by the way) when the likely forecast comes to pass. It's an age old conflict - optimism versus prudence and baseball fans are always optimists. Risk/reward analysis goes down the toilet. Great job!

Kingspoint
06-23-2008, 03:02 AM
I'm sorry it came out sounding like a complaint. It wasn't meant to be that way.

I just wanted to put the numbers out there so people are aware that if and/or when Thompson struggles in 2009, 2010, or 2011, you can look back at this season's inning total as a major factor to why his arm wasn't prepared for a long season properly.

Did you notice this weekend that the last fastball he threw to the batter before Arod (his last batter of the day), was only 88 MPH, when he had been 94-95 throughout the first 3-4 innings? That pitch got the Coach to come out of the dugout...not because Arod was up next, but because the velocity of his fastball was gone. It had been decreasing before that where it was down to 91-92 MPH the previous couple of batters. He was only in the 80's in his pitch count when he threw the 88-mph fastball. Daryl Thompson's arm isn't strong enough to throw 190 Innings this year without it being a risk upon the overall conditioning of his arm. Somewhere in the 160's would be just right. I hope that's where he ends up.

And, even then, we don't know for sure what his limit will be as far as a pitch count goes for the future, but we won't know until 2009 is over with.

I followed Bronson Arroyo ever since he was first drafted, and by the time he finished his first year in the Majors it was clearly established that his arm maxed out at 90 pitches. No kind of conditioning was going to change that. It's just what it was. The REDS went beyond that the last two years and it's my guess that his arm is now tired. Poor understanding of Arroyo on the part of REDS' management to allow it to happen. All pitchers are unique and need to be treated accordingly.

Some General Managers and Managers could care less. The Dodgers were always of that thinking....they'd just grab another minor leaguer out of their rich system after they had abused the one before him. Dusty comes from the same mindset. Blue is in his blood. Jockety could care less, also. Look at the major injuries Cardinals pitchers have had over the years. They couldn't keep anybody healthy for three years in a row at the Major league level. By the time one of their minor league pitchers reached the Majors (starters, I'm talking about), they couldn't last 3 years under Duncan/LaRussa and Jockety. Jockety just kept trying to buy new pitchers every year.

The REDS have been set up well by Krivsky/O'Brien with Volquez/Thompson/Cueto/Harang/Arroyo/Bailey, and I would have liked to have seen it all pay off from 2009 through 2012, but it won't happen if they get treated the way Harang has been the last 3 years and Arroyo the last 2 years.

They really need to get a new pitching coach to replace Dick Pole.

Kingspoint
06-23-2008, 03:06 AM
Some guys work longer than others. I don't see how its "proven" that someone needs to be shut down. Go tell Nolan Ryan that. He was throwing heat and an iron man for 20 plus years. It's a catch 22, anyone who ever works a lot of innings and is successful, when they eventually have a down year, which usually happens unless you're a Hall of Fame pitcher - its blamed on pitch count.

Louisville, you couldn't be more right about pitchers working longer or shorter than others. Every one of them are different.

44Magnum
06-23-2008, 10:53 AM
I disagree about being overused.
If a pitcher wants to improve stamina, they need to throw more. Why do more and more pitchers break down now compared to years past? I believe it's because they are coddled too much!

In what other sports do athletes not push themselves harder in training/practice than they do in the competitions? Why should baseball be any different? Have you ever seen an Olympic 100m sprinter train? They don't run 25m and stop. They sprint 200m, 400m and 100m, etc daily. They push their bodies to get stronger!

Kingspoint
06-23-2008, 03:30 PM
Why do more and more pitchers break down now compared to years past?


Quote:
Originally Posted by dougdirt
That medical technology tells us that kids shouldn't be throwing as much as people did back in the 50s-90's. Due to that fact kids aren't building up the arm endurance they once did (at least the ones that survived it). Little Timmy's arm hurt back in the 70s? Deal with it kid. Little Timmy's arm hurts now days? Take him to the MRI machine and see that his elbow has a snapped tendon in it, he gets surgery and doesn't play baseball for a year.

The 50's to 90's? You're talking about pretty modern times there. There wasn't any stamina from baseball pitchers past the 60's, except for a few.

And the reason they shouldn't throw is because kids have been wimps for many a decade now. As a whole they're a shadow of the toughness that kids were from the 60's, and the kids from the 60's are a shadow of the toughness of what kids were in the 20's and 30's. Medical technology has nothing to do with it.

In the 50's and 60's as kids (ages 8-15) we got our butts out of bed at 4:00 a.m. 5 or 6 days every week during the summer and were at the busstop at 4:20 to go pick strawberries in June, Loganberries and raspberries in July, and Beans in August. Then we played baseball in the afternoon mostly every day after we got home about 2:30 from picking. Then, if we played baseball, we went to our practices after that around 5:00, and depending on our ages played for different amounts outside after dinner. Ask a kid to do that today and he'd be crying. In the wintertime everyone learned how to box at the local boxing gym. And my generation were wimps compared to my father's.

Don't forget to consider that there were four times as many professional teams back then then there are now. There just weren't as many teams in the National League and American League. The Pacific Coast League in the 20's, 30's, 40's, and 50's and the Negro Leagues were every bit as good as half of the teams in the Majors right now. Players in those leagues would pitch regularly over a dozen complete games a year and do it for many years in a row, never reaching the Majors.

I do think it's more like what Doug says. I know when I was a kid, we played baseball all the time as a pickup game with the neighborhood kids or with my friends. We probably played it a hundred days a year unorganized, and that was the 60's, using my Dad's bats from the 30's. Those bats were as hard as a rock. If you didn't grip the bat with all your might, your hand would sting terribly from the contact with the ball.

Men were just tougher in the past then they are now because they were tougher as kids.

Kids for a long time have been wimps.

Mom's drive them to their practices. Are you kidding me? In the 60's (and we were wimps compared to the kids before me), there wasn't any parent driving their child to practice. The last thing you wanted was to have your mom be at a practice unless you wanted to be a mama's boy. You walked or you rode your bike.

It's my guess that kids from poorer neighborhoods around the world would have a better chance of being able to throw for longer innings as they probably grew up in neighborhoods where the kids are a lot tougher.

Handofdeath
06-23-2008, 07:21 PM
If he turns out to be a viable solution to the #5 spot, maybe the Reds could monitor him a lttle more closely. ie. skippng his turn when off days allow, using somebody else occasionally, or controlling the number of pitches in a game. It's not like we are in the hunt for anything but battling to stay out of last place. We don't seem to have too many other options at this point.

Exactly. Thompson, if he continues to be a SP, is going to be a bottom of the rotation guy. Players like that do not usually get 200 IP in a season.