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kfm
06-22-2008, 03:04 PM
Did anyone hear Ted Power on Sunday sportstalk today. He said that Homer and Dick Pole worked on some things that the reds wanted Homer to work on in triple a. Power said that despite losing last night Homer sat between 93-95 and even hit 97 a few times. Most importantly, he said Homer threw strikes as he went 8ip and only threw 99 pitches. Did anyone watch this game last night or know if this is accurate about Homer's pitch speed?

NorrisHopper30
06-22-2008, 03:05 PM
The most important stat to me about him last night was he had 7 strikeouts, which definitely means that he's gotten his strikeout pitch back. Keep him in AAA for at least a month - I need to see a few more starts like this and show that he has a finishing pitch.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 03:06 PM
Did anyone hear Ted Power on Sunday sportstalk today. He said that Homer and Dick Pole worked on some things that the reds wanted Homer to work on in triple a. Power said that despite losing last night Homer sat between 93-95 and even hit 97 a few times. Most importantly, he said Homer threw strikes as he went 8ip and only threw 99 pitches. Did anyone watch this game last night or know if this is accurate about Homer's pitch speed?

Why would Ted Power lie about Bailey's pitch speed?

Blue
06-22-2008, 03:11 PM
Why would Ted Power lie about Bailey's pitch speed?

It could always be a juiced stadium radar gun.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 03:12 PM
It could always be a juiced stadium radar gun.

They don't go by those. Teams chart their own pitchers and run their own guns.

icehole3
06-22-2008, 03:17 PM
I feel and I dont have any info or did I see him pitch, I think Pole told him to scratch the shortening of his delivery and just throw as hard as you can.

Grande Donkey
06-22-2008, 03:19 PM
I feel and I dont have any info or did I see him pitch, I think Pole told him to scratch the shortening of his delivery and just throw as hard as you can.That wouldn't really explain his increased command last night though (something like 71 strikes on 89 pitches). I think they found a pretty serious flaw in his delivery and have it corrected.

reds44
06-22-2008, 03:20 PM
I'll believe it when I see it.

AmarilloRed
06-22-2008, 03:24 PM
I'll believe it when I see it.

Can't you get the Louisville games on MILB.com? I think you can watch all the minor league games if you pay the $30 fee.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 03:26 PM
Can't you get the Louisville games on MILB.com? I think you can watch all the minor league games if you pay the $30 fee.

Not quite all of them, but probably about 70% of all the AAA games. I have the package and watch a bunch of games. Didn't watch last night though. Even still, there is no radar gun for the broadcasts.

LoganBuck
06-22-2008, 03:31 PM
Can we all agree to stop bashing Homer. It really does the Reds no good, for him to suck. I am rooting for him for two reasons:
1. He develops and matures and the Reds have another good young arm.
2. He shows enough that he can be traded for a quality player.

Right now so many people are so down on him. Can we declare a moratorium on the negativity towards Homer Bailey?

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 03:32 PM
Can we all agree to stop bashing Homer. It really does the Reds no good, for him to suck. I am rooting for him for two reasons:
1. He develops and matures and the Reds have another good young arm.
2. He shows enough that he can be traded for a quality player.

Right now so many people are so down on him. Can we declare a moratorium on the negativity towards Homer Bailey?

Its Redszone, you have better chances of winning the lottery than people to not bash prospects (fairly or unfairly).

TRF
06-22-2008, 03:40 PM
or unfairly praise them.

camisadelgolf
06-22-2008, 03:44 PM
Sometimes, I defend players who I have almost no hope in, just to help balance out all the negativity in the forums. There's no way I think Szymanski will be much help for the Reds or any team in MLB, but it's not outside the realm of possibility that he becomes a useful backup. I'd be nearly shocked if Ty Pelland ever became an effective reliever for the Reds, but it's not unrealistic to see him have a decent career as a LOOGY. I can go on and on. I think Luis Bolivar is one of the biggest wastes of roster space in the Reds' minor league organization, but I hope like hell he makes a positive impact for the Reds. I don't understand how people can be so negative. I guess it's just not my thing.

Homer Bailey
06-22-2008, 04:26 PM
Can we all agree to stop bashing Homer. It really does the Reds no good, for him to suck. I am rooting for him for two reasons:
1. He develops and matures and the Reds have another good young arm.
2. He shows enough that he can be traded for a quality player.

Right now so many people are so down on him. Can we declare a moratorium on the negativity towards Homer Bailey?

Yeah the hate on me has been disheartening. I've even been very hard on myself. :confused:

Kc61
06-22-2008, 04:30 PM
The most important stat to me about him last night was he had 7 strikeouts, which definitely means that he's gotten his strikeout pitch back. Keep him in AAA for at least a month - I need to see a few more starts like this and show that he has a finishing pitch.

Sorry to be negative Norris, but 7 strikeouts in 8 AAA innings just isn't that stupendous. Bailey has averaged about 7 per nine. The zero walks are a good sign, but since he gave up 10 hits Bailey might have been "pitching to contact" to avoid walks.

The positive from last night, frankly, is that Homer didn't get bombed after his experience with the Reds which shows that he's hanging tough and trying to work things out. But I wouldn't get overly excited about last night's numbers.

Still wonder what the problem is. Is he hurt or overrated or is he just not ready and still learning. We all hope it is number three.

kfm
06-22-2008, 05:13 PM
Why would Ted Power lie about Bailey's pitch speed?

I am not saying that he would lie about his pitch speed, but sometimes these guys memories are not the best, and I was hoping that someone on the board could have seen him pitch and expand on Powrer's comments. I just wanted some confirmation before getting too giddy about Homer's velocity coming back at the same time that he has command of his pitches. I know many posters on this board just love to attack people but the last thing I was doing was calling Ted Power a liar.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 05:26 PM
I think Ted Power is a liar, no way Bailey was hitting 97 on the gun. I've heard about all the BS over Bailey hitting 97-98 with his fastball that I can take. I don't believe he's ever hit that, he hasn't hit it in Cincy (and hasn't come closer then 94) since his first start against cleveland. I'd like to know what magic beans Pole gave to bailey to get him throwing consistantly 95-96 and occasionally 97, when just last week he was throwing 89-91 straight as an arrow.

From the time he was drafted I think we've been lied to about Bailey by people in this organization.


My theory on the real story is this, Bailey was drafted right out of high school throwing 91-93. He came into the system throwing that, the reds projected as he got older and stronger he'd pick up a few mph on his fastball, and when he eventually debuted he would be throwing 95 consistantly, hitting 97 occasionally. So all that talk a few years ago about him throwing 97 was actually just to build him up for his debut, when they felt he could actually hit that number. Unfortunately, he hasn't picked up anything yet. I think that 97 mph fastball was all projection, and was never real.

LoganBuck
06-22-2008, 05:34 PM
I think Ted Power is a liar, no way Bailey was hitting 97 on the gun. I've heard about all the BS over Bailey hitting 97-98 with his fastball that I can take. I don't believe he's ever hit that, he hasn't hit it in Cincy (and hasn't come closer then 94) since his first start against cleveland. I'd like to know what magic beans Pole gave to bailey to get him throwing consistantly 95-96 and occasionally 97, when just last week he was throwing 89-91 straight as an arrow.

From the time he was drafted I think we've been lied to about Bailey by people in this organization.


My theory on the real story is this, Bailey was drafted right out of high school throwing 91-93. He came into the system throwing that, the reds projected as he got older and stronger he'd pick up a few mph on his fastball, and when he eventually debuted he would be throwing 95 consistantly, hitting 97 occasionally. So all that talk a few years ago about him throwing 97 was actually just to build him up for his debut, when they felt he could actually hit that number. Unfortunately, he hasn't picked up anything yet. I think that 97 mph fastball was all projection, and was never real.

Nope. We saw him doing it last year.

Put your tinfoil cap back on.

kfm
06-22-2008, 05:34 PM
I think Ted Power is a liar, no way Bailey was hitting 97 on the gun. I've heard about all the BS over Bailey hitting 97-98 with his fastball that I can take. I don't believe he's ever hit that, he hasn't hit it in Cincy (and hasn't come closer then 94) since his first start against cleveland. I'd like to know what magic beans Pole gave to bailey to get him throwing consistantly 95-96 and occasionally 97, when just last week he was throwing 89-91 straight as an arrow.

From the time he was drafted I think we've been lied to about Bailey by people in this organization.


My theory on the real story is this, Bailey was drafted right out of high school throwing 91-93. He came into the system throwing that, the reds projected as he got older and stronger he'd pick up a few mph on his fastball, and when he eventually debuted he would be throwing 95 consistantly, hitting 97 occasionally. So all that talk a few years ago about him throwing 97 was actually just to build him up for his debut, when they felt he could actually hit that number. Unfortunately, he hasn't picked up anything yet. I think that 97 mph fastball was all projection, and was never real.

My memory is not the best, but I am pretty certain that last year against the A's he was 94 to 96 consistently. Anyone else remember that. BTW, I just find it hard to believe that an entire organization would just decide to say that a kid was throwing harder than he was capable of. I mean it's not like they play games where no one can watch or there are no reports.

guttle11
06-22-2008, 05:41 PM
What would be to gain by lying about a kid's velocity? It's not like people wouldn't figure it out in short order once attention was paid.

From my untrained eye, Homer's stride looks a lot longer than it did when he pitched at Dayton. He's throwing flat instead of with a downward motion. That can cost you a MPH or 2 instantly. Maybe that is what they're working on?

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 05:45 PM
I'll believe it when I see it. And, I just think they were building him up from the start, thinking by the time he got here he'd be throwing harder.

As for what's to gain by lying. Well, every organization builds up their upcoming prospects (and probably tells a few fibs) to build fan interest and hope. I really don't think that's a big secret, you could probably call it the Jim "willie greene" Bowden effect.

guttle11
06-22-2008, 05:55 PM
As for what's to gain by lying. Well, every organization builds up their upcoming prospects (and probably tells a few fibs) to build fan interest and hope. I really don't think that's a big secret, you could probably call it the Jim "willie greene" Bowden effect.

That's something people with no business acumen do as a short term facade. The Reds FO since Bailey has been a pro has many, many faults. Lack of business acumen is not something I'd put on that list.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 06:03 PM
Ugh, they still are full of hype. Annointing Jay Bruce as the greatest player that we'll ever see come from the farm system is funny to me (who said that, i think it was sabo). I have no doubt he'll be a fine or great player, but I'm extremely cynical when it comes to what I hear about organizations prospects.

I still think every organization hypes their prospects so much that I don't believe anything until I see it.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2008, 06:07 PM
I'll believe it when I see it. And, I just think they were building him up from the start, thinking by the time he got here he'd be throwing harder.

As for what's to gain by lying. Well, every organization builds up their upcoming prospects (and probably tells a few fibs) to build fan interest and hope. I really don't think that's a big secret, you could probably call it the Jim "willie greene" Bowden effect.

Not true NH, I don't blame you for being skeptical if you haven't seen it. However I did see him throwing 96-98 consistently in the futures game he was in back in '07. I bumped the thread up so people could read it from front to back, there was plenty of us who saw it.

guttle11
06-22-2008, 06:09 PM
Ugh, they still are full of hype. Annointing Jay Bruce as the greatest player that we'll ever see come from the farm system is funny to me (who said that, i think it was sabo). I have no doubt he'll be a fine or great player, but I'm extremely cynical when it comes to what I hear about organizations prospects.

I still think every organization hypes their prospects so much that I don't believe anything until I see it.

Hyping someone and lying are two different animals.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 06:15 PM
Not true NH, I don't blame you for being skeptical if you haven't seen it. However I did see him throwing 96-98 consistently in the futures game he was in back in '07. I bumped the thread up so people could read it from front to back, there was plenty of us who saw it.

If he was throwing that according to major league guns it boggles the mind how you could take a 20-year-old throwing 98 and turn him into a 22-year-old throwing 90. He's had no major arm troubles, and outside of the groin I don't think has had any major injuries. He should be getting stronger and in theory working with better pitching coaches and baseball people every step of the way. I mean who do we have in our system training people? Are there just trained monkey's down there? If true it's just disgraceful what our coaches and the people in the reds system are doing.

kfm
06-22-2008, 06:17 PM
I'll believe it when I see it. And, I just think they were building him up from the start, thinking by the time he got here he'd be throwing harder.

As for what's to gain by lying. Well, every organization builds up their upcoming prospects (and probably tells a few fibs) to build fan interest and hope. I really don't think that's a big secret, you could probably call it the Jim "willie greene" Bowden effect.

There is a huge difference in talking about what you think a guy will be able to do when he reaches his potential which is what every organization does and just flat lying about what a guy is doing right now. I don't ever want to be put in a position to defend leatherpants and I am mad at you for doing this to me. However, Bowden was wrong about his projections of Willie Greene as he was wrong on his projections of many other players. What you are arguing is like a team saying a guy has 10 homeruns when he only has 5. I don't think that is very common. ALso, consider the fact that it is not just the REds organaization who has reports on guys.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2008, 06:19 PM
If he was throwing that according to major league guns it boggles the mind how you could take a 20-year-old throwing 98 and turn him into a 22-year-old throwing 90. He's had no major arm troubles, and outside of the groin I don't think has had any major injuries. He should be getting stronger and in theory working with better pitching coaches and baseball people every step of the way. I mean who do we have in our system training people? Are there just trained monkey's down there? If true it's just disgraceful what our coaches and the people in the reds system are doing.

Well I won't debate the coaching issue, I have my own issues trusting them myself. I ain't saying they suck because I couldn't prove it, but I wouldn't be the one to grade them high.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 06:25 PM
There is a huge difference in talking about what you think a guy will be able to do when he reaches his potential which is what every organization does and just flat lying about what a guy is doing right now. I don't ever want to be put in a position to defend leatherpants and I am mad at you for doing this to me. However, Bowden was wrong about his projections of Willie Greene as he was wrong on his projections of many other players. What you are arguing is like a team saying a guy has 10 homeruns when he only has 5. I don't think that is very common. ALso, consider the fact that it is not just the REds organaization who has reports on guys.

So you're saying a team doesn't add a few mph's to add some excitement if they think he'll reach it soon? MPH on a fastball isn't like K's or wins, it's tough in the minors with guns and all, and it really depends on whether a pitcher has his good stuff. I'm not sure if Bowden lied when he said Willie Greene had badspeed like Bonds or was it Sheffield, because like MPH, it's tougher to determine on a consistent basis.

All of this said, if you guys saw him in the futures game throwing 98 consistantly I believe that (I believe it more than if a reds scout said it after watching him pitch in AA). That is why I'm skeptical of Ted Power, I'd be more likely to believe someone posting on this board with a jugs gun then ted power or rick sweet or anyone affliated with cincy.

Blue
06-22-2008, 06:26 PM
I'll believe it when I see it. And, I just think they were building him up from the start, thinking by the time he got here he'd be throwing harder.

As for what's to gain by lying. Well, every organization builds up their upcoming prospects (and probably tells a few fibs) to build fan interest and hope. I really don't think that's a big secret, you could probably call it the Jim "willie greene" Bowden effect.

You should have paid closer attention when he was with the club last year after his groin injury and before his mechanical changes.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 06:32 PM
Neilhamburger.... frankly put, you don't know what you are talking about. The Reds aren't and weren't the only people claiming Bailey threw that hard. Many people saw it on hundreds of different radar guns. The Reds have tinkered with his mechanics more times than I can count over the last year and a half and it has resulted in a whole bunch of ineffectiveness.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 06:39 PM
Neilhamburger.... frankly put, you don't know what you are talking about. The Reds aren't and weren't the only people claiming Bailey threw that hard. Many people saw it on hundreds of different radar guns. The Reds have tinkered with his mechanics more times than I can count over the last year and a half and it has resulted in a whole bunch of ineffectiveness.

That's fine, there is another possibility I should have mentioned, the people in the reds system are complete morons who took a 19-year-old dominating people with an exposive 98 mph fastball and turned him into a 22 year old with a 90 mph fastball who gets hit around. Makes you feel real good about the people in the reds system. Reds pitching drafting moto: If the injuries don't get you, the coaches and trainers will.


Thank god that Volquez was traded for and not developed here, he'd probably be throwing in the mid-80s by now. Also, I guess Cueto should praise the lord that Soto is helping him this year, as whenever Soto leaves and Pole and the rest of the reds pitching geniuses take over he starts taking a dive.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 06:42 PM
That's fine, there is another possibility I should have mentioned, the people in the reds system are complete morons who took a 19-year-old dominating people with an exposive 98 mph fastball and turned him into a 22 year old with a 90 mph fastball who gets hit around. Makes you feel real good about the people in the reds system. Reds pitching drafting moto: If the injuries don't get you, the coaches and trainers will.

Well while I think they have messed him up, he still was throwing 94 in the majors at times this year.

kfm
06-22-2008, 06:44 PM
That's fine, there is another possibility I should have mentioned, the people in the reds system are complete morons who took a 19-year-old dominating people with an exposive 98 mph fastball and turned him into a 22 year old with a 90 mph fastball who gets hit around. Makes you feel real good about the people in the reds system. Reds pitching drafting moto: If the injuries don't get you, the coaches and trainers will.

I think as Doug mentioned, they have changed his mechanics countless number of times in order to improve his command, and so far what he has turned into is not what any of us would have liked. Having said that, if they finally have a way to improve his command and not sacrifice his velocity I think we would all be happy. Having said that, it was one start but it is better than nothing.

Mario-Rijo
06-22-2008, 06:56 PM
I think as Doug mentioned, they have changed his mechanics countless number of times in order to improve his command, and so far what he has turned into is not what any of us would have liked. Having said that, if they finally have a way to improve his command and not sacrifice his velocity I think we would all be happy. Having said that, it was one start but it is better than nothing.

I agree, but if he cannot improve his command well enough to get big league hitters out w/o losing velocity then I would rather him throw low 90's with good command than the alternative. I also won't blame it all on the staff(s), some of it is likely Homer and also some could just be what it is a guy who needs to bring down the velocity to be a real pitcher.

dougdirt
06-22-2008, 06:57 PM
I just went back and watched 2 innings of Bailey's start yesterday. His fastball had some decent tailing action to it.... something I haven't seen from him in about 2 years. I don't have the time to watch the entire game right now, but it was promising to see that.

NeilHamburger
06-22-2008, 06:57 PM
I think as Doug mentioned, they have changed his mechanics countless number of times in order to improve his command, and so far what he has turned into is not what any of us would have liked. Having said that, if they finally have a way to improve his command and not sacrifice his velocity I think we would all be happy. Having said that, it was one start but it is better than nothing.

My thing is this, he really needs high velocity on his fastball as everytime he pitches Welsh points out how straight his ball is, how it is like an arrow. Shouldn't someone in the organization realize that after a few starts with decreased velocity and a straight fastball that maybe they're not really doing things correctly. I just wonder if he had been drafted by say the Diamondbacks, if he would be pitching in the bigs right now with a 97 mph fastball and a tighter curve due to the coaching he received in the minors.

Instead, his motion apparantly gets changed every year, his value as a commodity is decreased, and there are serious questions now whether or not he'll be able to live up to the hype.

ChatterRed
06-22-2008, 08:02 PM
or unfairly praise them.

:beerme:

PuffyPig
06-22-2008, 08:12 PM
Sorry to be negative Norris, but 7 strikeouts in 8 AAA innings just isn't that stupendous. Bailey has averaged about 7 per nine. The zero walks are a good sign, but since he gave up 10 hits Bailey might have been "pitching to contact" to avoid walks.



If he was indeed "pitching to contact" to avoid walks, he wouldn't have 7 K's in 8 innings.

mth123
06-22-2008, 08:31 PM
Ugh, they still are full of hype. Annointing Jay Bruce as the greatest player that we'll ever see come from the farm system is funny to me (who said that, i think it was sabo). I have no doubt he'll be a fine or great player, but I'm extremely cynical when it comes to what I hear about organizations prospects.

I still think every organization hypes their prospects so much that I don't believe anything until I see it.

This may be the most crazy thing I've ever read on this board. So the Reds lied about his velocity when fans in parks all over the minor leagues were watching him pitch, the futures games, the all star games, opposing scouts all watching and no one caught on. Yeah, that's realistic.

mth123
06-22-2008, 08:36 PM
That's fine, there is another possibility I should have mentioned, the people in the reds system are complete morons who took a 19-year-old dominating people with an exposive 98 mph fastball and turned him into a 22 year old with a 90 mph fastball who gets hit around. Makes you feel real good about the people in the reds system. Reds pitching drafting moto: If the injuries don't get you, the coaches and trainers will.

Now this I believe. Lets hope from last night's report that they have undone some of the damage they caused.

22 is still pretty young. Homer will still be a good pitcher in the future IMO. Right now was not the time. If he hasn't found it by 2010, then worry.

Chip R
06-22-2008, 08:58 PM
So you're saying a team doesn't add a few mph's to add some excitement if they think he'll reach it soon? MPH on a fastball isn't like K's or wins, it's tough in the minors with guns and all, and it really depends on whether a pitcher has his good stuff. I'm not sure if Bowden lied when he said Willie Greene had badspeed like Bonds or was it Sheffield, because like MPH, it's tougher to determine on a consistent basis.

All of this said, if you guys saw him in the futures game throwing 98 consistantly I believe that (I believe it more than if a reds scout said it after watching him pitch in AA). That is why I'm skeptical of Ted Power, I'd be more likely to believe someone posting on this board with a jugs gun then ted power or rick sweet or anyone affliated with cincy.


That would be a really good way to get fired if the minor league folk did what you accused them of. The people in Cincinnati can't be at those games so they have to trust their people in the minors to give them accurate reports. What good does it do Power and Sweet to report to the Reds that Homer's throwing 97 when he's barely cracking 90? Eventally they are going to find out he's not throwing as hard as they said he was and they are going to demand an explanation. Then they are going to have to find different jobs because if they did that, no one in baseball would hire them.

Do teams hype their prospects? Of course they do. You know who would hype young players almost to a fault? None other than HOF manager Sparky Anderson. Some kid would make a terrific play or have a great hitting day and Sparky would say this kid's the Second Coming and compare him to some past or present great player. He may have erred in his evaluation but that's far from lying.