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View Full Version : If you really want to get a measure of Adam Dunn.....



demas863
06-23-2008, 03:51 PM
watch how he does in the Toronto series. He's been bashed and applauded by every one of us at one time or another. The real Adam Dunn will be determined by how he reacts on the field in response to the uncalled for comments by the Toronto GM. I'm sure it's on his mind even though if asked he'd probably give some "I don't really care what other people say" malarky. If he does comes through (fully healthy or not) mark me down as a Dunn supporter. If he doesn't, he is the lackadaisical, doesn't give a crap, leadershipless, numb-nut that so many of you claim he is.

"These are the times that try men's souls." My bet is he's going to come through big time and turn this team's season around.

mound_patrol
06-23-2008, 04:00 PM
Are you really going to base your entire opinion on Dunn on one series?

JayBruce4HOF
06-23-2008, 04:21 PM
Ummmm... NO.

lidspinner
06-23-2008, 04:37 PM
I am not going to base my opinion on this series alone...BUT, I do wan tto see some fire in AD this week. I dont care if its hustle a little harder to first or stretch a single to a double, or dive for a ball.....or hit a HR and look up at the box as he crosses home plate....I want to see FIRE in him...The Blue Jays Gm said what we all think day in and day out....I only wish it was Bob C. or Walt that made those comments. I tell myself every offseason that AD will show up to spring training in tip top shape and be ready to play, yet he always shows up and never looks as if he worked at anything........its starting to catch up to him and we reds fans are turning on him.....This series I want to see AD get mad, put up some stats, and push this team. I will still support him even if he goes o-fer the series but his tenure as a fun loving leader in Ctown is comming to an end unless he changes something.

Fullboat
06-23-2008, 05:11 PM
My opinion of Dunn won't change for this series.In fact most of us can predict what will happen he will
hit 1 or 2 HR's most likely solo shots because no can get on before him and he will walk 6 times because no one can hit behind him.

durl
06-23-2008, 05:16 PM
I wish players could flip a switch and have a good series. There are just too many variables. But trust me, I would LOVE for him to hit 3 HR and bat .375 for the series.

I'm pretty much with Fullboat. He may hit a HR or 2 but he'll draw a lot of walks.

aerontg
06-23-2008, 05:35 PM
My opinion of Dunn won't change for this series.In fact most of us can predict what will happen he will
hit 1 or 2 HR's most likely solo shots because no can get on before him and he will walk 6 times because no one can hit behind him.

Did you mean that no one can get on FIRST BASE ONLY before him? Because last time I checked AD was hitting a robust .200 or so with RISP. It's getting to the point (no numbers in front of me) where he's not even walking that much anymore, because as we all know pitchers that give up solo shots are still "effective" :D

I(heart)Freel
06-23-2008, 05:38 PM
Two on in the ninth yesterday and he looked at a close called third strike.

That summed up why the man drives me to drink.

REDblooded
06-23-2008, 07:09 PM
how do you spell D U N N A P O L O G I S T ? redszone.

Blue
06-23-2008, 07:21 PM
how do you spell D U N N A P O L O G I S T ? redszone.

SABR?

Blue
06-23-2008, 07:23 PM
He's got a pretty long track record to go on. No need to have his abilities boil down to one series. He is a good, above average player, but not someone who you can build a team around.

redsfanmia
06-23-2008, 07:50 PM
He's got a pretty long track record to go on. No need to have his abilities boil down to one series. He is a good, above average player, but not someone who you can build a team around.

He is an elite offensive player :rolleyes:

Hondo
06-23-2008, 08:01 PM
I would Defend Adam Dunn, but I probably would just be told than anyone can Hit 40 Home Runs, Drive in 100 RBI, oh, and Score 100 Runs, and that Walks (100 + of them) only clog bases...

But hey, that singles Hitter Kepp is Awesome isn't he... And singles don't Clogg, Walks Do!!!!

Yeah Right...

Besides Vaughn in like 1999 and Griffey in 2000... Who was the last player before that to Drive in 100 runs... So look at that stat then tell me how unvaluable Adam Dunn is...

FlightRick
06-23-2008, 08:24 PM
I don't think anybody's suggesting that we distill Adam Dunn's value down to how he plays in Toronto. But I think there's something to be said for observing how he comports himself given last week's dust-up.

Maybe it translates into numbers, and maybe it doesn't, but it'd sure be nice to see Dunn giving off a little "Eff You" vibe. A little more aggressiveness. A little Eye of the Tiger. Or at least some seriously snarky interviews. If he doesn't want to shove it in their stupid Canuck faces a little bit more firmly than he does against any other random opponent, I actually would be a bit put out and disappointed.

Blame Canada, Adam. Blame Canada.


Rick


PS: Canadian bacon is HAM! FOOLS!!!

REDblooded
06-23-2008, 08:28 PM
sometimes I wish this wasn't a family site..... i have the perfect adam dunn metaphor, but it'd be my last post.

REDblooded
06-23-2008, 08:29 PM
but don't take my word for it......... people here sure do love him, but for some crazy reason, there's pretty much no market for him.

Root Down
06-23-2008, 08:34 PM
Looks to me like the Reds are the market for Dunn.

Blue
06-23-2008, 09:05 PM
but don't take my word for it......... people here sure do love him, but for some crazy reason, there's pretty much no market for him.

I can't take your word for it. You have no basis whatsoever for saying that.

I(heart)Freel
06-23-2008, 11:56 PM
I can't take your word for it. You have no basis whatsoever for saying that.

You mean, besides the Reds trying to trade him last year during a great year and there was no market for him?

Blue
06-24-2008, 12:17 AM
You mean, besides the Reds trying to trade him last year during a great year and there was no market for him?

DARN! I keep forgetting how you all are privy to the goings on in the Reds front office, and every front office in baseball. If they wanted to trade him for jack crap he would have been gone yesterday. Just because they don't like the haul offered doesn't mean that no one wanted him. Ever think of that? Ever think that there is another possibility? Of course not. You people are too unreasonable to consider a contrary idea.

mound_patrol
06-24-2008, 12:55 AM
You mean, besides the Reds trying to trade him last year during a great year and there was no market for him?

It's not that he's not wanted. Its more a case of no one offering a package worth more to the Reds than just keeping him.

levydl
06-24-2008, 11:58 AM
but don't take my word for it......... people here sure do love him, but for some crazy reason, there's pretty much no market for him.

Dunn's contract terminates at the end of this year.

A team doesn't want to give up a great prospect for 1/2 a season of Adam Dunn.

The Reds don't want to give up Dunn unless they get a great prospect.

Thus, Adam Dunn essentially has to approve a trade to a team and then sign a long term deal with them. Or he could just say screw it and wait until free agency.

Perhaps when he gets a 5 year $70-million contract, you'll acknowledge there's a little bit of a market for him?

levydl
06-24-2008, 12:00 PM
Did you mean that no one can get on FIRST BASE ONLY before him? Because last time I checked AD was hitting a robust .200 or so with RISP. It's getting to the point (no numbers in front of me) where he's not even walking that much anymore, because as we all know pitchers that give up solo shots are still "effective" :D

Yes, he's not even walking that much anymore. He's only leading the major leagues in that category. Please continue.

And by the way, ONE of the reasons (just one of them, mind you) Dunn is so bad with RISP is that 1st base is often open. Pitchers pitch around him and he's so disciplined that he just takes the walk.

44Magnum
06-24-2008, 12:03 PM
If the Reds kept Dunn due to poor offers from other teams, then that means there was a very weak market for him.

He's looking at around a 3yr./24 million contract after this season on the open market.

levydl
06-24-2008, 12:31 PM
If the Reds kept Dunn due to poor offers from other teams, then that means there was a very weak market for him.

He's looking at around a 3yr./24 million contract after this season on the open market.

Which has to do with the length of his contract.

You're way too low. But believe what you will.

REDblooded
06-24-2008, 12:39 PM
I'm sorry, but when the reds were shopping him last season with 1 1/2 years on his contract, there was still no market for him...

As for him being worth more to the team than what kind of "decent" return there would be for him.......... please explain what the value is of a player that a team doesn't really believe they'll resign when they have no legitimate shot at playing in the postseason (talking about 07 season).

levydl
06-24-2008, 12:53 PM
I'm sorry, but when the reds were shopping him last season with 1 1/2 years on his contract, there was still no market for him...

As for him being worth more to the team than what kind of "decent" return there would be for him.......... please explain what the value is of a player that a team doesn't really believe they'll resign when they have no legitimate shot at playing in the postseason (talking about 07 season).

Of course there was a market for him, Krivsky just didn't want to do the deal, for whatever reason.

I think the Reds don't want to just give him away for a decent return with a month left until the trade deadline. Perhaps things will heat up and a team will want a rent-a-player to try to put them over the top, in return for a highly rated prospect. Also, if the return in a trade isn't good enough, we get 2 supplemental first round draft picks if he walks for free agency.

JayBruce4HOF
06-24-2008, 02:00 PM
I'm amazed we have so many MLB Insiders on this board taking time out of their busy schedules to tell us what trades were offered for Adam Dunn, what the Reds were requiring in return, and who the opposing clubs were willing to part with in return.

YOU DON'T TRADE YOUR MOST VALUABLE OFFENSIVE PLAYER UNLESS THE RETURN IS HUGE. Thank God the Reds are smart enough to realize that. At least Krivsky was.

durl
06-24-2008, 02:24 PM
It seems to me (and correct me if I'm wrong) but what other teams have been clamoring for over the past few years has been pitching...especially starters.

Just because Dunn didn't end up with another team last year doesn't mean teams didn't see him as valuable. Perhaps the Reds wanted a top-notch starter and other teams weren't willing to give them up. Just a thought.

REDblooded
06-24-2008, 02:28 PM
I think Dunn's plate music should be UNK - "Walk It Out"

BLEEDS
06-24-2008, 02:55 PM
I'm amazed we have so many MLB Insiders on this board taking time out of their busy schedules to tell us what trades were offered for Adam Dunn, what the Reds were requiring in return, and who the opposing clubs were willing to part with in return.

YOU DON'T TRADE YOUR MOST VALUABLE OFFENSIVE PLAYER UNLESS THE RETURN IS HUGE. Thank God the Reds are smart enough to realize that. At least Krivsky was.


That's why there's a SunDeck, for these "insiders" and for guys like me who get dinged for being pissed off all the time at them.

I'll never get into the Hallowed Grounds of the ORG by reading and responding to this nonsense.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

bounty37h
06-24-2008, 03:32 PM
Dunn's contract terminates at the end of this year.

A team doesn't want to give up a great prospect for 1/2 a season of Adam Dunn.

The Reds don't want to give up Dunn unless they get a great prospect.

Thus, Adam Dunn essentially has to approve a trade to a team and then sign a long term deal with them. Or he could just say screw it and wait until free agency.

Perhaps when he gets a 5 year $70-million contract, you'll acknowledge there's a little bit of a market for him?

Not when its the Reds who give it to him :)

bounty37h
06-24-2008, 03:36 PM
I'm amazed we have so many MLB Insiders on this board taking time out of their busy schedules to tell us what trades were offered for Adam Dunn, what the Reds were requiring in return, and who the opposing clubs were willing to part with in return.

YOU DON'T TRADE YOUR MOST VALUABLE OFFENSIVE PLAYER UNLESS THE RETURN IS HUGE. Thank God the Reds are smart enough to realize that. At least Krivsky was.

And you dont try to trade a huge return unless the player really is that valubale-and we havent seen that either. It is funny to watch both sides spinning this thing to fit their agenda, pro or con Dunn, and having no understanding or acceptance of the other sides view.

levydl
06-24-2008, 03:58 PM
And you dont try to trade a huge return unless the player really is that valubale-and we havent seen that either. It is funny to watch both sides spinning this thing to fit their agenda, pro or con Dunn, and having no understanding or acceptance of the other sides view.

When the other side's view is that no one wants a guy that goes 40 HRs, 100RBIs, 100 runs, 100 BBs, with a .380 OBP and .900 OPS and hits a HR every 14 AB (that's 5th all time behind McGwire, Ruth, Bonds, and Thome - though, granted, he's young and hasn't hit his decline years yet to pull that number down), I'm sorry, it's difficult to understand or accept that view.

mound_patrol
06-24-2008, 04:09 PM
I'm sorry, but when the reds were shopping him last season with 1 1/2 years on his contract, there was still no market for him...

As for him being worth more to the team than what kind of "decent" return there would be for him.......... please explain what the value is of a player that a team doesn't really believe they'll resign when they have no legitimate shot at playing in the postseason (talking about 07 season).

First off, last year they were still shopping him with only a 1/2 year contract. His option was voided if he was traded.

Secondly, if Dunn can't be traded for a good return you keep him bc you can either resign him or you get two high draft picks as compensation. That's why he has value staying with us.

BLEEDS
06-24-2008, 04:15 PM
First off, last year they were still shopping him with only a 1/2 year contract. His option was voided if he was traded.

Secondly, if Dunn can't be traded for a good return you keep him bc you can either resign him or you get two high draft picks as compensation. That's why he has value staying with us.

Logic, SunDeck, No Match.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
06-24-2008, 04:44 PM
Dunn is garbage.. his 40/100/100 are replaceable especially is votto, phillips, edwin, bruce, each can hit 25 to 30 homers.. like we know they can.. and with whoever you bring in.. when they hit in GABP you add like 20% onto their usually homer run output..

Dunns stats this year..

Dunns B.A. is soo bad(.219) it is the LOWEST in MLB for all players who have started at least 70 games..
Dunn is supposed to be a HR hitter? one of the most feared in the game.. number 7 in the NL..
He drives in runs we hear? he is tied at 24th with a teammate who must clear the bases for him.. Brandon Phillips..
He scores soo many runs.. EE and BPhill are both in the top 40 runs scored.. Dunn is not.. (don't say you have to have guys hit behind you to score, because Votto, and EE both have scored 34 or more runs.. and they have batted behind dunn most of the year) so people behind him can bat.
He is such a HIGH OBP guy? he is number 15 in the league..

Sorry but he is not worth his contract.. and this weekend if he does play well it will be solely to prove that he can do something different than the status quo he has been getting paid to do for years.. which will upset me even more..

44Magnum
06-24-2008, 04:54 PM
That's why there's a SunDeck, for these "insiders" and for guys like me who get dinged for being pissed off all the time at them.

I'll never get into the Hallowed Grounds of the ORG by reading and responding to this nonsense.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Being kept out of the ORG is not a bad thing. The people there take themselves way too seriously.

JayBruce4HOF
06-24-2008, 05:36 PM
Great posts, Levy and mound_patrol. :clap:

Dunnateher
06-24-2008, 06:28 PM
I think alot of people are intimidated by Dunn's size. They expect heroic outcomes daily and mythical stat lines. I don't think Adam is legend material, but rather a truly consistant run producer. I agree that he should be in the 2 hole and left there. He will never be a headline grabber or a behavioral disappointment to his team. I feel somewhat embarrassed that the Red's front office didn't stand up for the remarks made last week concerning his passion and desire. First and foremost baseball is a business, but a little loyalty for player who has given the Red's 7+ years of a star player shouldn't be asking too much. I would like to see the Reds offer a 4-5 deal in the 62-75 million range but that may be out of the plan. The core of youngsters is very solid and give a lifelong fan some hope going forward. If we are seeing the last of his Redleg days, then I for one would like to thank him for his contributions.

levydl
06-24-2008, 06:38 PM
Dunn is garbage.. his 40/100/100 are replaceable especially is votto, phillips, edwin, bruce, each can hit 25 to 30 homers.. like we know they can.. and with whoever you bring in.. when they hit in GABP you add like 20% onto their usually homer run output..

Dunns stats this year..

Dunns B.A. is soo bad(.219) it is the LOWEST in MLB for all players who have started at least 70 games..
Dunn is supposed to be a HR hitter? one of the most feared in the game.. number 7 in the NL..
He drives in runs we hear? he is tied at 24th with a teammate who must clear the bases for him.. Brandon Phillips..
He scores soo many runs.. EE and BPhill are both in the top 40 runs scored.. Dunn is not.. (don't say you have to have guys hit behind you to score, because Votto, and EE both have scored 34 or more runs.. and they have batted behind dunn most of the year) so people behind him can bat.
He is such a HIGH OBP guy? he is number 15 in the league..

Sorry but he is not worth his contract.. and this weekend if he does play well it will be solely to prove that he can do something different than the status quo he has been getting paid to do for years.. which will upset me even more..

I realize you don't know what you're talking about, and that you're blind hatred of Dunn precludes you from absorbing rational arguments about the player, but here goes:

If he does play well this weekend it will probably signify he's coming out of his slump.

You're looking at his stats while he's in a big slump. His stats when he was on fire were much better, and his stats at the end of the year will be somewhere between those 2 poles - around 40, 100, 100, 100, .240/.380/.520/.900.

He leads the majors in walks, which you forgot to mention.

7th in the league in HRs (when he's been slumping) is bad, or, excuse me, garbage?

15th in the league in OBP (when he's been slumping) is bad?

RBIs are largely a product of the people who hit in front of you. For one, he leads the major leagues in walks for a reason (well, many reasons) - when someone's on, people pitch around him. Virtually all of his OBP stats go up when runners are on, in scoring position, late in games with runners on, etc. You can't knock people in if pitchers aren't pitching to you.

Runs scored are largely a product of the people who hit behind you. Let's break down your statistical argument:

Dunn has 18 HRs, so he's responsible for 18 of the 38 runs he's scored. He's been on base 93 times excluding HRs (his 111 times on base overall, of course, leads the team). So guys behind him have driven him in 20 times out of the 93 times he's been on base. Votto's done it 8 times, Encarnacion 5, then Hatteberg with 2, and several guys did it 1 time.

Phillips has 13 HRs and 42 runs scored. He's been on base 88 times excluding HRs (101 overall - 10 times less than Dunn). So guys behind him have driven him in 29 times of the 88 times he's been on base. Dunn, Votto, and Encarnacion have each done it 7 times a piece, Kepp 2 times, and a bunch of guys 1 time.

Encarnacion has 12 HRs and 42 runs scored. He's been on base 79 times excluding HRs (91 overall - 20 times less than Dunn). So players behind him have driven him in 30 times out of the 79 times he's been on base. Bako's done it 6 times, Votto 5, Dunn 4, Hairston and Hatte 3, Javy 2, and a bunch of others 1 time.

Votto has 12 HRs and 34 runs scored. He's been on base 84 times excluding HRs (96 overall - 15 fewer than Dunn). So guys behind him have knocked him in 22 times out of 84 times on base. Patterson and Hairston have done it 4 times a piece, Kepp and Dunn 3, Ross, Bako, and Freel 2 and a couple guys 1 time.

Phillips has 15 doubles and 5 triples. Encarncion has 15 doubles and 1 triple. Votto has 15 doubles. Dunn only has 8 doubles. Perhaps they're in scoring position more often (though I'm not sure that's actually true), and that's what accounts for their higher runs scored (though the number of outs is more determinative of runs scored than the base one's on - and Votto's scored fewer runs than Dunn).

But both BP and EE have 4 more runs than Dunn. Dunn drove in Phillips 7 times, EE 4 times, and Votto 3. Perhaps having a good hitter like Dunn batting behind them helped their runs scored stats out a little bit. It also could simply be luck. But one thing's for sure, Dunn gets on more but has fewer runs, which points to guys behind him being sub-par, not Dunn himself.

I(heart)Freel
06-24-2008, 09:50 PM
When the other side's view is that no one wants a guy that goes 40 HRs, 100RBIs, 100 runs, 100 BBs, with a .380 OBP and .900 OPS and hits a HR every 14 AB (that's 5th all time behind McGwire, Ruth, Bonds, and Thome - though, granted, he's young and hasn't hit his decline years yet to pull that number down), I'm sorry, it's difficult to understand or accept that view.


The initial comment was that there is a market for him right now.

I stand by my comment that if Dunn were as valued by working baseball GMs as he is here, surely there would have been a trade last year. By all accounts, the Reds were shopping him. Actively. And nothing happened. So maybe there wasn't a market for him. Market... as in commerce... as in someone pays you what you're asking for the thing you're selling.

You can get snarky all you want about how we all must be baseball insiders blahblahblah... but the facts are what they are.

If two comp draft picks are better than what the Reds are offered for Dunn... can you call that a market?

Blue
06-24-2008, 10:09 PM
The initial comment was that there is a market for him right now.

I stand by my comment that if Dunn were as valued by working baseball GMs as he is here, surely there would have been a trade last year. By all accounts, the Reds were shopping him. Actively. And nothing happened. So maybe there wasn't a market for him. Market... as in commerce... as in someone pays you what you're asking for the thing you're selling.

You can get snarky all you want about how we all must be baseball insiders blahblahblah... but the facts are what they are.

If two comp draft picks are better than what the Reds are offered for Dunn... can you call that a market?

I guess there is also no market for Manny Ramirez every offseason.

levydl
06-25-2008, 10:53 AM
The initial comment was that there is a market for him right now.

I stand by my comment that if Dunn were as valued by working baseball GMs as he is here, surely there would have been a trade last year. By all accounts, the Reds were shopping him. Actively. And nothing happened. So maybe there wasn't a market for him. Market... as in commerce... as in someone pays you what you're asking for the thing you're selling.

You can get snarky all you want about how we all must be baseball insiders blahblahblah... but the facts are what they are.

If two comp draft picks are better than what the Reds are offered for Dunn... can you call that a market?

You're framing the question incorrectly. You're saying, look, the Reds shopped him, he wasn't traded, so other GMs must not think he's very good.

But, as has been pointed out over and over, he'd only be a rent-a-player if traded. The Reds want top talent for him in return. That means someone would have to give up a top prospect (at least) to get Dunn for 1/2 a year. That makes it very difficult.

Who knows what was offered or what was asked for. There's still a month left until the trade deadline, so there's no rush to ship him off. We'll see what the market is then, and if not at the trade deadline, then in free agency when he signs a big deal.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 10:57 AM
I realize you don't know what you're talking about, and that you're blind hatred of Dunn precludes you from absorbing rational arguments about the player, but here goes:

If he does play well this weekend it will probably signify he's coming out of his slump.

You're looking at his stats while he's in a big slump. His stats when he was on fire were much better, and his stats at the end of the year will be somewhere between those 2 poles - around 40, 100, 100, 100, .240/.380/.520/.900.

He leads the majors in walks, which you forgot to mention.

7th in the league in HRs (when he's been slumping) is bad, or, excuse me, garbage?

15th in the league in OBP (when he's been slumping) is bad?

RBIs are largely a product of the people who hit in front of you. For one, he leads the major leagues in walks for a reason (well, many reasons) - when someone's on, people pitch around him. Virtually all of his OBP stats go up when runners are on, in scoring position, late in games with runners on, etc. You can't knock people in if pitchers aren't pitching to you.

Runs scored are largely a product of the people who hit behind you. Let's break down your statistical argument:

Dunn has 18 HRs, so he's responsible for 18 of the 38 runs he's scored. He's been on base 93 times excluding HRs (his 111 times on base overall, of course, leads the team). So guys behind him have driven him in 20 times out of the 93 times he's been on base. Votto's done it 8 times, Encarnacion 5, then Hatteberg with 2, and several guys did it 1 time.

Phillips has 13 HRs and 42 runs scored. He's been on base 88 times excluding HRs (101 overall - 10 times less than Dunn). So guys behind him have driven him in 29 times of the 88 times he's been on base. Dunn, Votto, and Encarnacion have each done it 7 times a piece, Kepp 2 times, and a bunch of guys 1 time.

Encarnacion has 12 HRs and 42 runs scored. He's been on base 79 times excluding HRs (91 overall - 20 times less than Dunn). So players behind him have driven him in 30 times out of the 79 times he's been on base. Bako's done it 6 times, Votto 5, Dunn 4, Hairston and Hatte 3, Javy 2, and a bunch of others 1 time.

Votto has 12 HRs and 34 runs scored. He's been on base 84 times excluding HRs (96 overall - 15 fewer than Dunn). So guys behind him have knocked him in 22 times out of 84 times on base. Patterson and Hairston have done it 4 times a piece, Kepp and Dunn 3, Ross, Bako, and Freel 2 and a couple guys 1 time.

Phillips has 15 doubles and 5 triples. Encarncion has 15 doubles and 1 triple. Votto has 15 doubles. Dunn only has 8 doubles. Perhaps they're in scoring position more often (though I'm not sure that's actually true), and that's what accounts for their higher runs scored (though the number of outs is more determinative of runs scored than the base one's on - and Votto's scored fewer runs than Dunn).

But both BP and EE have 4 more runs than Dunn. Dunn drove in Phillips 7 times, EE 4 times, and Votto 3. Perhaps having a good hitter like Dunn batting behind them helped their runs scored stats out a little bit. It also could simply be luck. But one thing's for sure, Dunn gets on more but has fewer runs, which points to guys behind him being sub-par, not Dunn himself.


in a slump? besides the two weeks of may 14-may 29th.. which is the only time this year he has hit well at all.. AT ALL.. so in the other 10 weeks he has been in a slump?! you take that 2 week period out and he is batting... his 8 homers those 2 weeks are the only way he is even in the top 8 for homers..

a great B.A. of .175
OBP of .344
only has 25 Runs
10 Homers and 26 rbis..

please dont tell me he is in a slump and then when he was in that hot streak tell me that is how he plays.. he has been in a slump all year except those 2 weeks then..

BLEEDS
06-25-2008, 11:44 AM
Being kept out of the ORG is not a bad thing. The people there take themselves way too seriously.

Maybe if some of "us" would take it a LITTLE More seriously, they wouldn't post half the turd-infested posts we have on here.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
06-25-2008, 11:51 AM
I realize you don't know what you're talking about, and that you're blind hatred of Dunn precludes you from absorbing rational arguments about the player, but here goes:

Great Post, but you should have just stopped here. After this point, all HorseyPooPoo digests is a loud white noise...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 12:05 PM
Bleeds if there was any rational thought then it would digest.. instead i actually look at numbers and can understand them so once they are proven wrong they immediately make the point whatever it is.. have no basis for fact..

mound_patrol
06-25-2008, 12:49 PM
Bleeds if there was any rational thought then it would digest.. instead i actually look at numbers and can understand them so once they are proven wrong they immediately make the point whatever it is.. have no basis for fact..

You look at numbers that support your hatred for Dunn. Things like batting avg and avg with RISP. You refuse to objectively look at the stats like OBP, OPS, and RBI's.

I think alot of people expected too much from Dunn when he first came up from the minors, and that's why he's so scrutinized. Bruce, while more talented, is cut from the same mold when it comes to their hitting. I think people will turn on him in a few years and I'll be stuck argueing for him all the time.

BLEEDS
06-25-2008, 12:49 PM
Bleeds if there was any rational thought then it would digest.. instead i actually look at numbers and can understand them so once they are proven wrong they immediately make the point whatever it is.. have no basis for fact..

The FACT that you couldn't "digest" the fact that levydl totally blew away EVERY SINGLE one of your points, by using REAL numbers, makes that point drastically laughable...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

BLEEDS
06-25-2008, 12:51 PM
You look at numbers that support your hatred for Dunn. Things like batting avg and avg with RISP. You refuse to objectively look at the stats like OBP, OPS, and RBI's.

I think alot of people expected too much from Dunn when he first came up from the minors, and that's why he's so scrutinized. Bruce, while more talented, is cut from the same mold when it comes to their hitting. I think people will turn on him in a few years and I'll be stuck argueing for him all the time.

Yeah, you don't want to look at his June numbers, or the last few weeks in particular. His OBP in particular is very Corey Patterson-esque...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Jack Burton
06-25-2008, 01:00 PM
How do you explain dunn's laughable attempt to play LF, what is your excuse for him on that? He's had his time in Cincy and it hasn't worked out, move him if possible.

levydl
06-25-2008, 01:08 PM
in a slump? besides the two weeks of may 14-may 29th.. which is the only time this year he has hit well at all.. AT ALL.. so in the other 10 weeks he has been in a slump?! you take that 2 week period out and he is batting... his 8 homers those 2 weeks are the only way he is even in the top 8 for homers..

a great B.A. of .175
OBP of .344
only has 25 Runs
10 Homers and 26 rbis..

please dont tell me he is in a slump and then when he was in that hot streak tell me that is how he plays.. he has been in a slump all year except those 2 weeks then..

My point about him slumping was, you can take his numbers now, and they will give you a skewed picture, just as I could take his numbers at the end of his hot streak and give you a skewed picture. I never said he was what his numbers were when he was streaking. I said what he is is what his numbers are at the end of the year - and they've been the same for 4 years in a row.

Now, go ahead telling yourself 7th in the league in HRs is garbage, 15th in the league in OBP is garbage, leading the majors in walks is garbage, 40 HRs, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, 100 walks, .900 OPS every year is garbage.

mound_patrol
06-25-2008, 01:34 PM
How do you explain dunn's laughable attempt to play LF, what is your excuse for him on that? He's had his time in Cincy and it hasn't worked out, move him if possible.

His Defense isn't laughable. Dunn doesn't make light of it, and no one else is calling him a gold glover. Dunn works hard and he has improved his defense slightly. And it's been shown again and again that offense more than makes up for his defense.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 02:17 PM
i can think of a game last week that he cost the reds at least 1 run, and maybe up to 3.. we talked about it here.. and he didn't get any errors for it.. but his poor play cost the reds.. if he has even 8 games like that in a year multiply that by 2 runs and you would need to take away 16 runs out of his 160 that he is actually producing.. (100 runs + 100 rbis - 40 homers).. and he is losing 10% of his offense to his lack of defense.. telling me that ignoring his defense is a good idea.. come on.. a guy with 85 runs and 85 rbis then can fill his role quite well and ole those guys are even easier to find............................

Jay bruces defense isn't god awful(or for adam dunn in this his "improving" year, below mediocre) so i will never be on him like I am adam dunn..

mound_patrol
06-25-2008, 02:20 PM
i can think of a game last week that he cost the reds at least 1 run, and maybe up to 3.. we talked about it here.. and he didn't get any errors for it.. but his poor play cost the reds.. if he has even 8 games like that in a year multiply that by 2 runs and you would need to take away 16 runs out of his 160 that he is actually producing.. (100 runs + 100 rbis - 40 homers).. and he is losing 10% of his offense to his lack of defense.. telling me that ignoring his defense is a good idea.. come on.. a guy with 85 runs and 85 rbis then can fill his role quite well and ole those guys are even easier to find............................

Jay bruces defense isn't god awful(or for adam dunn in this his "improving" year, below mediocre) so i will never be on him like I am adam dunn..

Win shares say that Adam Dunn more than makes up for his defense. I trust the people that do those stats alot more than your process of throwing numbers at the wall. We all know that 43% of all stats are made up on the spot.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 02:39 PM
Win shares say that Adam Dunn more than makes up for his defense. I trust the people that do those stats alot more than your process of throwing numbers at the wall. We all know that 43% of all stats are made up on the spot.

Win shares....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&season_filter%5B0%5D=2008&team_filter%5B0%5D=CIN&pos_filter%5B0%5D=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&page=1

win shares? come on people.. these same people tell us that dunn is a better fielder (his WS fielding value is 1.0) than votto, griffey, hairston, keppinger, bruce, freel, juan castro(who only was good at fielding), janish.. i mean come on.. you trust THAT?

I hope you don't trust those people.. because if you do i have a beach front home in kansas to sell you..


fortunately none of my stats were made up..

levydl
06-25-2008, 03:28 PM
i can think of a game last week that he cost the reds at least 1 run, and maybe up to 3.. we talked about it here.. and he didn't get any errors for it.. but his poor play cost the reds.. if he has even 8 games like that in a year multiply that by 2 runs and you would need to take away 16 runs out of his 160 that he is actually producing.. (100 runs + 100 rbis - 40 homers).. and he is losing 10% of his offense to his lack of defense.. telling me that ignoring his defense is a good idea.. come on.. a guy with 85 runs and 85 rbis then can fill his role quite well and ole those guys are even easier to find............................

Jay bruces defense isn't god awful(or for adam dunn in this his "improving" year, below mediocre) so i will never be on him like I am adam dunn..

Do you remember when he caught that ball and slammed into the stands a little ways back? How many runs did that save? He threw a guy out at home a few weeks back - there's another run, heck, maybe 2, since it ended the inning.

This is fun! Completely cherry pick a few instances out of 80 games played (and don't even describe them), multiply it by a given number you pull out of nowhere, and voila: Dunn's production becomes pedestrian!

It really is a wonder that some of us turn to statistics to help determine a player's ability, rather than doing it your old fashioned way.

redsfanmia
06-25-2008, 04:51 PM
Maybe if some of "us" would take it a LITTLE More seriously, they wouldn't post half the turd-infested posts we have on here.

PEACE

-BLEEDS

I have to agree with you on this. Some of the posts in the Sun Deck are laughable at best.

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 05:22 PM
Win shares....
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&season_filter%5B0%5D=2008&team_filter%5B0%5D=CIN&pos_filter%5B0%5D=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=total&direction=DESC&page=1

win shares? come on people.. these same people tell us that dunn is a better fielder (his WS fielding value is 1.0) than votto, griffey, hairston, keppinger, bruce, freel, juan castro(who only was good at fielding), janish.. i mean come on.. you trust THAT?

I hope you don't trust those people.. because if you do i have a beach front home in kansas to sell you..


fortunately none of my stats were made up..

Anybody care to coment? He makes a pretty good point.

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 05:45 PM
Dunn has a very good eye at the plate and that is his value but he isn't a very good hitter. Dunn doesn't have slumps. He just has hot streaks where he looks like the player many of you think he is and then goes back to being a well...a bad hitter. He hits for power when he make contact but he doesn't make much contact until he goes into one of the hot spells that he goes into 3-4 times a year when he make more consistant contact.

The power numbers are there at the end of the year because of these white hot stretches he goes into . The walks are always there because he does have a very good eye at the plate. It is really a strange thing to watch how he can look so good even great for a week or two hell sometimes a month and then look so bad the rest of the time.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 05:56 PM
lckdown.. unfortunately all of these people will tell you he is the "most" consistant hitter for the reds because of his yearly output.. but wont actually look that that all relies on having 3 or 4 streaks a year..

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 05:57 PM
Do you remember when he caught that ball and slammed into the stands a little ways back? How many runs did that save? He threw a guy out at home a few weeks back - there's another run, heck, maybe 2, since it ended the inning.

This is fun! Completely cherry pick a few instances out of 80 games played (and don't even describe them), multiply it by a given number you pull out of nowhere, and voila: Dunn's production becomes pedestrian!

It really is a wonder that some of us turn to statistics to help determine a player's ability, rather than doing it your old fashioned way.

Cherry Pick? those plays are supposed to be made.. any good fielder could have made those plays.. soo you are just telling me he sometimes does what good players do often..

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 06:20 PM
Adam Dunn has 18HRs sofar this year exactly 1/3 of them came in just 9 games and almost 1/2 (8) came in a two week span.

StreakStart Streak End Games AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SO BB SB CS BA OBP SLG OPS Teams
+-----------+-----------+-----+------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
2008-05-14 2008-05-23 9 27 9 12 1 0 6 11 5 8 0 0 .444 .583 1.148 1.731 CIN

levydl
06-25-2008, 06:36 PM
Anybody care to coment? He makes a pretty good point.

I don't fully understand the statistics that go into Win Shares. But what's his point? That Keppinger, Hairston, Votto, Griffey, Bruce, Freel, Castro, and Janish appear to be better defenders than Dunn, so the stats are therefore wrong?

For one, Castro, Freel, and Janish haven't played much, so the small sample size will skew their stats. And while they may subjectively seem like much better defenders than Dunn (I would agree that they do), I would certainly believe that the objective stats so far this year could say otherwise - Janish has made some poor plays, Freel is always too aggressive, and Castro just doesn't have it anymore, which is why he's out of the league.

As for Keppinger and Hairston, I would say they are about as to SS what Dunn is to LF. They don't have good range or good arms. Griffey is on one leg in RF. Votto's getting better at 1st but has butchered plenty of plays and I think leads 1st basemen in errors. And Bruce is 21 and has been playing CF when he should be playing RF. If they're better than Dunn right now, it ain't by much.

So, yeah, I don't really think that the fact that Win Shares has Dunn as a better defender than those mentioned somehow impugns its worthiness as a measure. None of those guys are exactly gold glove caliber.

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 06:50 PM
I don't fully understand the statistics that go into Win Shares. But what's his point? That Keppinger, Hairston, Votto, Griffey, Bruce, Freel, Castro, and Janish appear to be better defenders than Dunn, so the stats are therefore wrong?

For one, Castro, Freel, and Janish haven't played much, so the small sample size will skew their stats. And while they may subjectively seem like much better defenders than Dunn (I would agree that they do), I would certainly believe that the objective stats so far this year could say otherwise - Janish has made some poor plays, Freel is always too aggressive, and Castro just doesn't have it anymore, which is why he's out of the league.

As for Keppinger and Hairston, I would say they are about as to SS what Dunn is to LF. They don't have good range or good arms. Griffey is on one leg in RF. Votto's getting better at 1st but has butchered plenty of plays and I think leads 1st basemen in errors. And Bruce is 21 and has been playing CF when he should be playing RF. If they're better than Dunn right now, it ain't by much.

So, yeah, I don't really think that the fact that Win Shares has Dunn as a better defender than those mentioned somehow impugns its worthiness as a measure. None of those guys are exactly gold glove caliber.

So are you saying that some stats people use (win shares)are subjective and may not tell the whole truth do to underlying factors? I agree those players listed are not gold glovers but to say Dunn is a better defender is just as wrong as calling them just that.

muethibp
06-25-2008, 07:24 PM
So are you saying that some stats people use (win shares)are subjective and may not tell the whole truth do to underlying factors? I agree those players listed are not gold glovers but to say Dunn is a better defender is just as wrong as calling them just that.

I think it is perfectly reasonable to think that Dunn is a better defender than Keppinger, Hairston, Jr., Castro, or Votto. Keppinger, Castro, and Hairston can't get to anything, Castro has no arm, Jr. can't get to anything and has no arm, and Votto is horrible at 1B right now.

In my opinion, people that just can't believe that Dunn might be a better defender than these other players mentioned are focusing on the fact that Adam has made a few bad looking plays and have in their head that he is a bad defender. On the other hand, people that criticize Dunn excuse the defense of Votto/Jr. et al because their defense (with the exception of Votto) hasn't resulted in many cringe-worthy plays, but instead just a lot of balls rolling past them.

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 07:34 PM
I think it is perfectly reasonable to think that Dunn is a better defender than Keppinger, Hairston, Jr., Castro, or Votto. Keppinger, Castro, and Hairston can't get to anything, Castro has no arm, Jr. can't get to anything and has no arm, and Votto is horrible at 1B right now.

In my opinion, people that just can't believe that Dunn might be a better defender than these other players mentioned are focusing on the fact that Adam has made a few bad looking plays and have in their head that he is a bad defender. On the other hand, people that criticize Dunn excuse the defense of Votto/Jr. et al because their defense (with the exception of Votto) hasn't resulted in many cringe-worthy plays, but instead just a lot of balls rolling past them.

In my head it not so much the cringe-worthy plays as you put it but the plays he doesn't even get to. You seam to have left Bruce out of your last post but it states he is better then Bruce in the OF as well. Your assesment of Griffey sounds alot like Dunn to me. Junior has twice the arm Dunner has but his range is limited

levydl
06-26-2008, 11:08 AM
So are you saying that some stats people use (win shares)are subjective and may not tell the whole truth do to underlying factors? I agree those players listed are not gold glovers but to say Dunn is a better defender is just as wrong as calling them just that.

Statisticians could do that, I guess. But no, I don't think Bill James created the Win Shares statistic to try to fool people into thinking some player was better than another.

I just meant that I don't really understand the formula that James created for Win Shares. There's about an 90 page explanation of it in his book of the same title. It's too complicated for me, and I tend not to quote the stat, since I don't understand it. But if you told me that it says Dunn is a better LF than Kepp is a SS or Votto is a 1B, well, that doesn't strike me as a very bold claim.

mound_patrol
06-27-2008, 03:55 PM
Well Dunn went 4-12 with 2 runs scored and a RBI. Does that makes Demas a supporter or hater?

demas863
06-28-2008, 09:39 AM
Well Dunn went 4-12 with 2 runs scored and a RBI. Does that makes Demas a supporter or hater?

Get your point. I should have started a thread saying how the rehiring of Cito Gaston would turn the Bluejay's franchise around. That's fairly clear. :)

Big Hurt
06-28-2008, 02:26 PM
In my head it not so much the cringe-worthy plays as you put it but the plays he doesn't even get to. You seam to have left Bruce out of your last post but it states he is better then Bruce in the OF as well. Your assesment of Griffey sounds alot like Dunn to me. Junior has twice the arm Dunner has but his range is limited

Defensively, that is my critique of Dunn. It has been mentioned in other threads as well. It seems that he cannot get to many balls in the time it requires to hold extra base hits to a minimum. This view is not supported by errors, as he is not fumbling the ball, but is surely observable by anyone who watches. Balls hit to his area seem to be parlayed into extra base hits often, thus becoming RISP. I saw one just last night and commented to those around me, "Dunn just turned an Indian single into a double". Bruce will not be villified, as Dunn is, as he will play good defense some time in the future. Most fans will be supportive if you can play either offense or defense well and make some strides in your weak areas.

demas863
06-29-2008, 04:19 PM
Well Dunn went 4-12 with 2 runs scored and a RBI. Does that makes Demas a supporter or hater?

The Bluejays GM woke the "sleeping giant". Good in Toronto but magnificent in Cleveland - in the field, on the bases and at bat. He was hustling big time. I'm now a Dunn fan as long as he continues giving it his best effort regardless of the results. Now if Griffey would only try hitting opposite field (he can no longer catch up with a good fastball) rather than trying to pull everything, this team could get back to par offensively so we might see an interesting second half.

Blue
06-29-2008, 05:50 PM
Defensively, that is my critique of Dunn. It has been mentioned in other threads as well. It seems that he cannot get to many balls in the time it requires to hold extra base hits to a minimum. This view is not supported by errors, as he is not fumbling the ball, but is surely observable by anyone who watches. Balls hit to his area seem to be parlayed into extra base hits often, thus becoming RISP. I saw one just last night and commented to those around me, "Dunn just turned an Indian single into a double". Bruce will not be villified, as Dunn is, as he will play good defense some time in the future. Most fans will be supportive if you can play either offense or defense well and make some strides in your weak areas.

I think he does well as far as getting to balls in the air. Once the ball is on the ground he is a little slow in his pursuit.

gedred69
06-29-2008, 06:11 PM
Oh my God. What does it take for Dunn's fans to realize he is nothing more than the re-incarnaction of Dave Kingman. Shame is, it didn't have to be this way. As he climbed through the ranks, he was a hitter, who happened to hit HRs, plain and simple. I have seen it suggested that some idiotic and evil Hitting coach told him, "somebody your size should hit HRs", and he fell in love with the HR. If this is fact, that coach should be drawn and quartered, as that mentality ruined what should have been a storied career. Now, he sadly isn't worth much. (It shoulda' been different).