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View Full Version : Dunn, should he stay or go?



David Cubbedge
06-25-2008, 12:54 AM
I have to admit, I am starting to get a bit nervous. Jocketty has openly admitted that extension talks have not happened for Adam Dunn. He has used the normal excuse that many players don't like to talk contracts during the season, but this is the single most important decision on Jocketty's plate right now. If he wanted to resign Dunn he would have at least talked with him to see if he wanted to stay and get a feel for how much money he would be looking for.

All you hear lately is that this team is in a culture change. I think that directly targets Dunn and Griffey. Perhaps they are not of the culture that the Reds front office is looking for. It's no secret that Griffey will not be resigned. But Dunn is a colossal trivial subject all on it's own.

The dude is consistent year in and year out. He may not be what the fans want him to be, but he is what he is. Lets look at the logic; he is a 1-tool player. But is it that simple? If baseball were to improve it's thinking, perhaps another tool would be added to the mix. That tool would be the ability to take a walk. The single most celebrated stat in baseball today is OPS which is derived from OBP and SLG. Dunn has that stat nailed down. But how can we celebrate that stat without recognizing the ability to take a walk as a tool? I think far too many fans have lost sight of how big that part of the game is.

So, if we add that tool, Dunn is a 2-tool player. Is that worth $13 million per year? Well if he is in the top 5% in the league in OPS which is the most telling stat in the game, then he absolutely is.

Let's go beyond that. If Dunn were traded, who would replace him? Of course we know that nobody could bring the same production. But where does Jocketty go? Does he give Votto the shot? Does he let Dunn go to free agency and take the two draft picks then use would-be Dunn money on free agency? Does he go with a Hopper/Freel combination and wait until Frazier is ready? Perhaps he moves Encarnacion to LF and puts Keppinger at 3B and Gonzo/Hairston at SS?

Lets consider the free agents for LF:

Garrett Anderson
Larry Bigbie
Emil Brown
Patt Burrell
Carl Crawford
Jose Cruz Jr.
Cliff Floyd
Luis Gonzalez
Raul Ibanez
Jason Michaels
Craig Monroe
Jay Payton
Wily Mo Pena
Timo Perez
Scott Podsednik
Manny Ramirez
Shannon Stewart
Jose Valentin
Brad Wilkerson


Keep in mind, many of these players will resign with their current clubs. I highlighted the player that could really help this team and he is just as easily said to have a snowball's chance in hell in signing with the Reds. Then again, if Dunn and Griffey's salaries are off the books, we may be able to... oh wait, nevermind, Harang and Arroyo will be getting that money and I don't see them being moved anytime soon. Any other LF on that list look intriguing? I can guarantee you they all likely have at least one more tool than Dunn, but can any of them really bring you the same production?

Blue
06-25-2008, 01:14 AM
Keppinger to LF, Phillips to SS, sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B. That would improve the defense quite a bit. No idea how they'll score runs, but the other team won't score many as long as the ball isn't flying over the fence.

JayBruce4HOF
06-25-2008, 01:24 AM
We should definitely strive to keep our most valuable offensive player.

ChatterRed
06-25-2008, 07:58 AM
We're losing with Dunn.........we can lose without him.

When things are bad, you need to try something new. Sometimes, just keeping all the same guys around propagates a losing mentality.

Jefferson24
06-25-2008, 09:19 AM
If you cheap and young, you stay. If your really good and signed to a reasonable deal, you stay. Everyone else should go. There needs to be some big time changes in order for this team to do anything but lose. There are a handful of young talented players that can help be the future of this organization. Everyone else is just hurting this team either with the money their salary eats up or their play or both.

This team needs to be better at getting on base, hitting with RISP, and defense. This team also needs to sure up the starting pitching. So no, we should not keep Dunn.

ChatterRed
06-25-2008, 09:30 AM
I agree. I'd invest all the money saved from Dunn and Griffey into starting pitching. Let Arroyo go to triple A and dominate and unload him for nothing when a trade offer comes around. Spread some rumor that his arm was tired.

Volquez, Cueto, Harang, FA, FA

We can dominate teams with good pitching. Eventually this young offense will come around.

Ghosts of 1990
06-25-2008, 09:43 AM
We're losing with Dunn.........we can lose without him.

When things are bad, you need to try something new. Sometimes, just keeping all the same guys around propagates a losing mentality.

Yeah but it hasn't been 'the same guys'. It's been dunn and a bunch of fringe players that never amounted to much anywhere else. Doesn't mean dunn is the reason we're losing

Orodle
06-25-2008, 09:57 AM
If we can move Dunn for something that can help us win then I would want whats better for the team. Keppinger moving to the outfield wouldn't be a bad idea but moving Phillips back to SS is harder than it sounds. I know Phillips has played SS in the past but after playing 2B for a period of time its hard to move back. Everything developes quicker at the SS position. Of those leftfielders I would prefer Crawford and wouldnt mind Stewart or Wilkerson if they signed cheaply.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 10:03 AM
get carl crawford.. at all costs.. he is worth at least 10-12 mil on this team.. huge defensive upgrade, and another speedy guy in the lineup with some pop in his bat..

Gary Redus
06-25-2008, 10:12 AM
It is time for Dunn to go. In GABP lots of guys can go yard. Move Dunn and get a more complete ball player.

Ghosts of 1990
06-25-2008, 10:23 AM
get carl crawford.. at all costs.. he is worth at least 10-12 mil on this team.. huge defensive upgrade, and another speedy guy in the lineup with some pop in his bat..

another lefthander that isolates us against LH.

If dunn's out the door, we NEED another RH OF

fadetoblack2880
06-25-2008, 10:43 AM
Ya know, it's weird, doesn't Castellini want to keep Dunn? This team is too mum on what's going on in the front office. You hear the the owner wants to keep him then you hear the the GM hasn't had any talks of an extension. The GM says it's time for a change in the clubhouse yet he doesn't speculate as to what changes will be made. Therefore, it's left up to us and the media to make speculations on the meaning of this statement. I, for one, would like to see Dunn's contract extended and he be able to stay with the Reds. I really don't see how he alone can be this teams downfall. I have no problems with Griffey being dealt. I would hate to see him go, but he's 38 years old and it's fairly obvious he's not the offensive threat that he once was or Dunn is. Forty homeruns consistantly will be difficult for this team to replace, especially on a restricted budget. I hope there was some truth to the statement that Castellini wants to keep Dunn. Also, with Dunn's current hitting woes, how can anyone with any knowledge expect to receive anything of value in return? I say keep him. He's 28 and durable. He has a few years left.

44Magnum
06-25-2008, 10:44 AM
Get rid of Dunn and Jr. at any cost! That would help out the Reds culture a lot!

Sign Carl Crawford.

fadetoblack2880
06-25-2008, 10:49 AM
One other thing, if Dunn is dealt, imagine all the playing time Corey Patterson will be getting.

markymark69
06-25-2008, 10:52 AM
Keppinger to LF, Phillips to SS, sign Orlando Hudson to play 2B. That would improve the defense quite a bit. No idea how they'll score runs, but the other team won't score many as long as the ball isn't flying over the fence.


Please, STOP!!!! with the Phillips to shortstop move. Why would the Reds move him to shortstop? He is an established, Gold Glove caliber second baseman, leave him there and let him continue to blossom, instead of going back and having to adjust to playing shortstop again. Other than a couple games two years ago, in which he looked very uncomfortable, he hasn't shortstop in quite some time.

Besides, I thought I heard one of the beat writers talking the other day, when the shortstop position was being talked about, that Phillips did not want to go to shortstop.

As far as your comment about improving the defense, Janish can do the job defensively. He can't hit at the big league level yet (and he may never), but strictly on defense, he is fine.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 11:08 AM
if janish is batting 8th or so he is a sufficient piece to a good team..

Jack Burton
06-25-2008, 12:02 PM
He should go, easy deciscion.

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 01:20 PM
unfortunately like most decisions people make.. they are too stubborn to realize they are wrong and by getting on his wagon they are wrong.. soo they will ride him out til he is gone.. and when he is gone and we still arent winning they will claim it is because we dont have him.. not remembering we didnt win with him either..

BurgervilleBuck
06-25-2008, 02:23 PM
If the decision was made to let Dunn go, maybe you move Kepp to LF, put EE at first... and that allows the Herr Ultimatum to be put into effect. Muwahahahahaha...

I don't know what to do about Dunn. He's a liability in the OF but his at bats are consideration for keeping him. Maybe we can morph him with Corey Patterson -- a good bat and a good fielder.

Here's a plan... move Patterson to left field but have Dunn DH for him.

Problem solved.

Fullboat
06-25-2008, 02:29 PM
unfortunately like most decisions people make.. they are too stubborn to realize they are wrong and by getting on his wagon they are wrong.. soo they will ride him out til he is gone.. and when he is gone and we still arent winning they will claim it is because we dont have him.. not remembering we didnt win with him either..

Just like Hamilton and his 79 RBI's. Does anybody here think that Hamilton would have 79 RBI's with this squad?

Ahhhorsepoo
06-25-2008, 04:59 PM
Just like Hamilton and his 79 RBI's. Does anybody here think that Hamilton would have 79 RBI's with this squad?

no but he would have more than Dunn, and be a HUGE UPGRADE at defense over almost anyone else we run out there..

captainmorgan07
06-25-2008, 05:47 PM
Dunn and Griffey need to go. Both are sub par defensively which costs are pitching staff runs. Their complete lack of contact continues to baffle this team with runners in scoring position.

Lockdwn11
06-25-2008, 06:28 PM
If we could get him to stay cheap and by cheap I mean 8-10 mill over 3 years but thats not going to happen so let him go.

BLEEDS
06-25-2008, 10:13 PM
From the ORG:

Summary of this thread and 99% of the other 5000 Dunn threads:

1. Someone mentions Adam Dunn in any respect.

2. Someone posts that Dunn sucks because he has a low batting average and strikes out often.

3. Other people post that the important metrics prove Dunn is a very valuable run producer despite his flaws.

4. Someone posts that even though Dunn is the best Reds hitter of the past decade he is overpaid.

5. Someone posts that his market value is $15-17 million per year as compared to similar players.

6. Someone posts that he may be worth that much money but the Reds can't afford it because Cincinnati is just a poor, run-down little village with no money.

7. Someone posts that the Reds have plenty of money to spend and they make a big profit every year.

8. Someone says "Yeah, but he can't play defense" and concocts a stat showing Dunn is the worst left fielder in major league history.


It has gotten so predictable that we can even tell exactly which posters will perform each step of the process.



PEACE

-BLEEDS

Ahhhorsepoo
06-26-2008, 12:26 AM
wheres the ignoring stats that show that dunn is bad??

Blue
06-26-2008, 12:29 AM
wheres the ignoring stats that show that dunn is bad??

#2, appropriately.

bounty37h
06-26-2008, 01:57 PM
From the ORG:

Summary of this thread and 99% of the other 5000 Dunn threads:

1. Someone mentions Adam Dunn in any respect.

2. Someone posts that Dunn sucks because he has a low batting average and strikes out often.

3. Other people post that the important metrics prove Dunn is a very valuable run producer despite his flaws.

4. Someone posts that even though Dunn is the best Reds hitter of the past decade he is overpaid.

5. Someone posts that his market value is $15-17 million per year as compared to similar players.

6. Someone posts that he may be worth that much money but the Reds can't afford it because Cincinnati is just a poor, run-down little village with no money.

7. Someone posts that the Reds have plenty of money to spend and they make a big profit every year.

8. Someone says "Yeah, but he can't play defense" and concocts a stat showing Dunn is the worst left fielder in major league history.


It has gotten so predictable that we can even tell exactly which posters will perform each step of the process.



PEACE

-BLEEDS


Yes Bleeds, you have become quite predictable ;)

Hondo
06-26-2008, 04:25 PM
Yes Bleeds, you have become quite predictable ;)

BLEEDS breaks out Stats for the STAT guys that say Dunn needs to go, and the STAT guys ignore the Stats, and say his D sucks. OR he K's too much...

Adam Dunn is the only Reds organization product drafted and Groomed that has become an Impact player in the last 20 years and some people want him gone? That was in a paper article somewhere, like Paul Doherty or whaterver his name is...

Lockdwn11
06-26-2008, 05:08 PM
I don't want Dunn gone. I just don't want the Reds to pay him as if he is a elite player. I would go as high as 4 years at 12-13 mill. with a club option for a 5th

BLEEDS
06-26-2008, 05:50 PM
I don't want Dunn gone. I just don't want the Reds to pay him as if he is a elite player. I would go as high as 4 years at 12-13 mill. with a club option for a 5th


I think we could all (save for a few nut jobs) live with that. However, $15M is more likely to "Git er Dunn!" pun intended...

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Lockdwn11
06-26-2008, 06:04 PM
I would also go as far as to say that I would want him to move to first and play Voto in left I mean lets face it Dunn isn't getting any younger and he is a BIG guy his knees are taking a pounding in the outfield. I would want to protect my investment by removing him from LF.

Trace's Daddy
06-26-2008, 06:19 PM
I agree, I would like him to go to first and move Votto to left. They should re-sign Dunn and try to sign Carl Crawford to play center.

Lockdwn11
06-26-2008, 07:17 PM
From the ORG:

Summary of this thread and 99% of the other 5000 Dunn threads:

1. Someone mentions Adam Dunn in any respect.

2. Someone posts that Dunn sucks because he has a low batting average and strikes out often.

3. Other people post that the important metrics prove Dunn is a very valuable run producer despite his flaws.

4. Someone posts that even though Dunn is the best Reds hitter of the past decade he is overpaid.

5. Someone posts that his market value is $15-17 million per year as compared to similar players.

6. Someone posts that he may be worth that much money but the Reds can't afford it because Cincinnati is just a poor, run-down little village with no money.

7. Someone posts that the Reds have plenty of money to spend and they make a big profit every year.

8. Someone says "Yeah, but he can't play defense" and concocts a stat showing Dunn is the worst left fielder in major league history.


It has gotten so predictable that we can even tell exactly which posters will perform each step of the process.



PEACE

-BLEEDS

From IslandRed in the same thread on ORG very interesting read:






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Yes, another Adam Dunn thread. And this post is long. Sorry.)

First, the disclaimer: All of the following is predicated on the assumption Dunn will shoot for a major free-agent contract (think 4/$60 million or bigger). If he's willing to come back on more agreeable terms, then the calculus changes. On to it:

I recently read Moneyball again, and after pondering for awhile, I have gone from thinking the Reds probably should give Dunn a long-term contract to thinking they probably shouldn't.

It is not because of the kind of junk Daugherty wrote today, or a lack of appreciation for Dunn's skill set. I've written plenty in support of him over the years. I've eaten a full helping of the new-school metrics that show Dunn to be an extremely productive player over his Reds career. It's precisely because I've defended Dunn that this is a difficult conclusion to draw. Dunn has been a cause célèbre among the stat-minded here for a long time. Just like Bill James once wrote about Phil Rizzutto that an appreciation of all the little things Rizzutto did was an unspoken way of saying, hey, I'm an enlightened fan that can see beyond the box score, championing Dunn has been a way for people to show that we're hip with the new school, that we Get It.

But the so-called Moneyball thinking isn't just about evaluating players. It also teaches that managing a major-league roster is about managing assets, and a player's true value to the team cannot be separated from his salary, contract status and future performance projection. And that's where my own analysis points toward "don't."

The Reds are not the Marlins. For the Marlins, "pay the man" is always seemingly the wrong answer. Nor are we the Yankees, where it's always the right answer. We are in the majority, the in-betweens, and we have to pick our spots. For me, the general rule is simple to say if not to figure: we should be willing to pay market rate to keep guys who will earn their money and cannot be easily replaced; we should avoid handing out those contracts if the tilt is toward probably not earning the money, particularly if the numbers are large enough to have a boat-anchor effect on future payrolls.

Dunn has been so remarkably consistent that it's easy to say he's going to keep doing it several more years. So what is that production worth today? Trotting out one metric, Baseball Prospectus' MORP (Marginal Value over Replacement Player), Dunn is actually being slightly overpaid today -- his projected stat line would be worth nearly $11 million. (That sounds on the low side, but that projection factors in defense and position; any metric involving replacement level is going to apply a discount to a player simply for being a left fielder.) He's making $13 million now. But even if the $11 million is an accurate number, I don't mind paying a slight premium for a guy who's as reliable as it gets in baseball.

The problem for me comes in the future projection. Dunn is 28, heading toward the far side of the typical player's career peak. It has been theorized that youngish players who have so-called old player skills and an old player body hit earlier and steeper declines than their more athletic peers. In fact, BP's PECOTA seems to be factoring in some of that. Dunn's MORP predictions for the next four years -- and keep in mind that he is slightly underperforming his 50th-percentile for this year so far, and if he finishes that way these numbers will go down a little:

2009: $8,825,000 (4.1 WARP)
2010: $7,725,000 (3.5 WARP)
2011: $6,975,000 (3.0 WARP)
2012: $6,325,000 (2.8 WARP)

(If you're wondering why the salary isn't going down proportionally to the WARP, it's because MORP factors in the inflationary nature of baseball salaries. A win in 2012 will cost more than it does today.)

That projection, which fits with my eyeball test, doesn't make him a useless player by any stretch. But it argues against giving him a Carlos Lee-type deal or anything remotely close to it. Again, we can pay for production, but it's difficult to justify over-paying for it, particularly for a guy at the crowded end of the defensive spectrum. But there's certainly a lot of room to debate Dunn's future projection, and to make a case that his dropoff won't come for a few years yet. If you disagree with my overall conclusion, that's probably why.

OK, so I've come around to the notion of not re-signing him to a long, expensive deal. Even with a pessimistic projection, though, he has a good chance to keep putting up 40-100 with strong on-base skills for the next year or two. How do we replace that?

Back to another concept from Moneyball: replace the aggregate.

We can't expect to simply snap in another left fielder who gives us the same power and OBP as Dunn. But the aggregate of the resulting moves could well meet or even exceed Dunn's overall value to the team. Dunn's PECOTA projection calls for him to be a 4.1 WARP (win over replacement player) guy next year. Instead of spending $15 million for that, suppose Jocketty finds an inexpensive or in-house solution to man left field, someone worth a win or two, and then spends the bulk of the money to fix one of our black-hole positions like center field or catcher? It can work. In fact, you can argue it should work if Jocketty intelligently chooses his targets.

And finally, the acid test for guys like me: What would Beane do? There's no way to know for sure. We know Beane likes Dunn's type of player; we also know he can make the tough call. Given the choice between "Beane would be attempting to sign Dunn to a major extension" and "Beane would have traded him 18 months ago," I'm leaning strongly towards the latter.

OK guys, have at it.

BLEEDS
06-26-2008, 07:29 PM
heck, why stop there, why not cut and paste the whole thread?!?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Lockdwn11
06-26-2008, 07:32 PM
heck, why stop there, why not cut and paste the whole thread?!?!?

PEACE

-BLEEDS

Why would you say that? That was a very interesting and informative post that adds a great deal to this topic/thread.

REDblooded
06-26-2008, 09:32 PM
I would give my left arm for Carl Crawford........ He would dominate in the NL, and finally give us a prototypical lead-off hitter..... see ya Dunn. You're barely worth the comp picks we would receive for you.

kpresidente
06-26-2008, 10:50 PM
One solution is to move him to 1B, then sign him long term with the intention of trading him as soon as Yonder Alanso is ready. That could end up being as early as 2010. It would be like signing Dunn to a 2-year deal.

REDblooded
06-26-2008, 11:29 PM
i hate dunn. so should you.

/thread

Ahhhorsepoo
06-27-2008, 12:09 AM
i have said how much i hate him.. but it is ALWAYS very clear that it is because of how much he makes.. at 6-8 mil a year he is a legit player.. and a welcome addition to a team..

REDblooded
06-27-2008, 12:11 AM
i agree... but anything over 10? You're paying diamond prices for cubic.......... Fortunately for Dunn, there are enough Cinci fans easily fooled to make a public push for garbage.

bounty37h
06-27-2008, 09:07 AM
BLEEDS breaks out Stats for the STAT guys that say Dunn needs to go, and the STAT guys ignore the Stats, and say his D sucks. OR he K's too much...

Adam Dunn is the only Reds organization product drafted and Groomed that has become an Impact player in the last 20 years and some people want him gone? That was in a paper article somewhere, like Paul Doherty or whaterver his name is...

Good point, shows that many in the front office need to go too then :)

bounty37h
06-27-2008, 09:12 AM
One solution is to move him to 1B, then sign him long term with the intention of trading him as soon as Yonder Alanso is ready. That could end up being as early as 2010. It would be like signing Dunn to a 2-year deal.

Might be even harder to move him if he is long term, but move him only 2 years later-his game is likely to go own by that poiint, age is def up, teams might not be interested in that then. His value is as high now as it is going to get, take that as good or bad. I know I joke a lot about him, and prob lean more towards getting rid of him, but only cause I fear the contract he will likely want, if he woudl resign reasonably, I am all for it.

kpresidente
06-28-2008, 11:40 AM
The most convincing argument why Dunn should go is his park-adjusted stats.

Adam Dunn:

STAT PARK ADJUSTED
OBP .343
SLG .435
OPS .778

$15-$18 million/season for a .778 OPS hitter? I don't think so.



Somebody brought up Juan Pierre...

STAT PARK ADJUSTED
OBP .347
SLG .443
OPS .790



I don't know about everybody else, but I see a higher OBP and SLG from Pierre....not to mention all the speed and range in CF.

OUReds
06-28-2008, 04:25 PM
The most convincing argument why Dunn should go is his park-adjusted stats.

Source?

Dunn's career OPS+ is 130 (with 100 being average), and that is a park adjusted stat. Pierre's OPS+ is 84.

Dunn's career road OPS is .862

Dunn doesn't strike me as a player that greatly benefits from GAB. His power comes from homers that would be out of any ballpark. His OBP is walk driven, and patience doesn't care what park you are in.

As far as the topic, it's pretty clear Jocketty doesn't intend to resign him. I just hope he has a plan to replace our best offensive player.