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BuckeyeRedleg
07-03-2008, 10:32 AM
Last 1+ years in Louisville:

583 AB
153 H
18 2B
13 3B (!)
18 HR
78 RBI
87 BB
195 K (ouch!)
40/51 SB's
.795 OPS

Ok, what am I missing here? Other than the K's, he looks pretty solid.

-Just turned 26. Check.
-Already on the 40-man roster. Check.
-Would make major league minimum. Check.
-Way better than Norris Hopper, Corey Patterson and a healthy Ryan Freel. Check.
-Better bat off the bench than Javy fricking Valentin. Check.
-If promoted to the big club, it makes room for Cumberland to be promoted to AAA, setting off domino effect of past due OF promotions throughout the system. Check.

Is this organization really this stupid?

I think so.

Joseph
07-03-2008, 11:27 AM
Someone has decided that Dickerson doesn't have a future and he's stuck there as AAA fodder.

OesterPoster
07-03-2008, 11:31 AM
Someone has decided that Dickerson doesn't have a future and he's stuck there as AAA fodder.

I'm hoping that "someone" is now employed by the Mets.

M2
07-03-2008, 11:34 AM
Dickerson had a very good June. If he keeps it going through July and the Reds continue to sag in the standings, the Reds would be well-advised to try him in CF for the last two months of the season.

I don't expect him to be starting CF in the majors for any major stretch of time, but getting some steady exposure to the bigs over the last two months of the year would help in determining if he's a viable bench option for 2009. And if he goes all Shane Victorino on us, that would be a nice bonus.

OnBaseMachine
07-03-2008, 11:42 AM
I too would like to see him in Cincy before long. At worst I think he should take the role of Corey Patterson and be the 5th outfielder next season. He's a plus-plus defender in center field, can steal a base and is willing to take a walk. I always hoped he would develop into a poor mans Curtis Granderson but that never happened, but I'd still take a Shane Victorino like M2 said or just a solid 5th outfielder.

Cyclone792
07-03-2008, 11:44 AM
I think Dickerson has an excellent chance to be an asset to the club as a reserve outfielder. Unfortunately, I do think Dickerson walks too much and strikes out too much for the toothpick and that may hold him back even further.

lollipopcurve
07-03-2008, 11:46 AM
Dickerson with a .599 OPS against lefties. One day, maybe we'll see a Dickerson-Stubbs platoon.

Cooper
07-03-2008, 11:57 AM
What's his OPS against righties?

lollipopcurve
07-03-2008, 11:58 AM
What's his OPS against righties?

High 860s I think.

OnBaseMachine
07-03-2008, 12:01 PM
What's his OPS against righties?

.287/.380/.488 - .868.

M2
07-03-2008, 12:25 PM
Dickerson with a .599 OPS against lefties. One day, maybe we'll see a Dickerson-Stubbs platoon.

Maybe, but the notion of Stubbs as platoon CF against LHPs just depresses me.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-03-2008, 12:29 PM
Dickerson with a .599 OPS against lefties. One day, maybe we'll see a Dickerson-Stubbs platoon.

That would just make too much sense.

RedsManRick
07-03-2008, 01:36 PM
See Clark, Brady.

Some teams would rather go with the replacement level player they know over the possible AAAA fodder they don't. Good teams cycle through these sorts of guys, figuring out who can contribute at the major league level and who's mere organizational filler. In doing this, they increase the odds that one their guys becomes an actual contributor and are able to plan for the future more appropriately. Bad teams give that "known" player a permanent spot on the 25 man roster, if not a multi-year deal, and lock themselves in to the mediocrity they're currently getting -- with no upside.

OnBaseMachine
07-03-2008, 01:56 PM
Maybe, but the notion of Stubbs as platoon CF against LHPs just depresses me.

Same here.

However, it could possibly work. Stubbs is hitting .318/.430/.424 - .855 OPS vs LHP. That would be pretty depressing though if that's all Stubbs ever develops into.

kpresidente
07-03-2008, 01:58 PM
Why not a Dickerson / Hopper platoon right now?

Hopper vs. LHP....

BA/OBP/SLG - .367 / .406 / .456
OPS - .862


Wouldn't mind having that combo at the top of the order.

PuffyPig
07-03-2008, 02:05 PM
Why not a Dickerson / Hopper platoon right now?

Hopper vs. LHP....

BA/OBP/SLG - .367 / .406 / .456
OPS - .862


Wouldn't mind having that combo at the top of the order.

I'd rather see Bruce in CF right now.

reds44
07-03-2008, 02:06 PM
Why not a Dickerson / Hopper platoon right now?

Hopper vs. LHP....

BA/OBP/SLG - .367 / .406 / .456
OPS - .862


Wouldn't mind having that combo at the top of the order.
You have to get rid of Griffey first. I have no faith in Dusty to know how a platoon works. A Dickerson/Stubbs platoon would just up proving the notion that Drew Stubbs is the right handed version of Dickerson.

Will M
07-03-2008, 02:30 PM
Release Patterson and call up Dickerson. Patterson has no future with the Reds whereas Dickerson might. If he can hit ML RHP then he is fine as a reserve OF. The time to find out is now.

M2
07-03-2008, 04:21 PM
However, it could possibly work. Stubbs is hitting .318/.430/.424 - .855 OPS vs LHP.

I agree. Stubbs has big problems with RHPs and platoon against southpaws might be his major league future ... even if the idea of it bums me out.

Side question to the gallery: Is there an advancement path for a platoon vs. LH kid? I'm thinking you might have to hit RHPs well enough to get to the majors before anyone hands you a platoon role. You don't often hear of a kid in AAA who platoons against LHPs getting a promotion to do the same thing. It's usually a guy with good overall performance and a more regular gig who gets the nod.

OnBaseMachine
07-03-2008, 04:32 PM
Danny Dorn also seems like a future platoon hitter. He crushed RHP last year and failed miserably against lefties. This year he's hitting .302/.403/.547 against RHP and a lowly .162/.289/.351 against lefties. If anything it looks like the Reds could finally have a decent bench within a couple years with the likes of Danny Dorn, Chris Dickerson, Sean Henry, and Cumberland. Cumberland is a kid who could completely eliminate the idea of a platoon and overtake the center field job all by himself if he continues to hit like he is now in Chattanooga.

ochre
07-03-2008, 07:04 PM
Release Patterson and call up Dickerson. Patterson has no future with the Reds whereas Dickerson might. If he can hit ML RHP then he is fine as a reserve OF. The time to find out is now.
give Dickerson the same Number and we can all just change our replica jerseys to XXXXerson.

RedsManRick
07-03-2008, 07:18 PM
I was just running through a list of possible nicknames for Dickerson and just gave him the ARod style one. I think it could catch on.

dougdirt
07-03-2008, 07:26 PM
I was just running through a list of possible nicknames for Dickerson and just gave him the ARod style one. I think it could catch on.

LMAO... I don't think it would catch on much.

OesterPoster
07-03-2008, 10:13 PM
LMAO... I don't think it would catch on much.

Yeah, but he'd pull in the sponsor money from the "See Jane, See Spot, See ----" books.

:)

Blitz Dorsey
07-03-2008, 10:26 PM
You guys are killing me. Good stuff.

But is C-Dick any worse than Dick Pole???

camisadelgolf
07-04-2008, 09:04 AM
What about The ChriDick?

http://critic.nohomers.net/Requests/Jay_Posing.jpg

It stinks!

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 03:28 PM
Not everyone has a 20 year career. Some are 15, some are 10, some are 7, 5, and 3. Dickerson is one that could give the team somewhere between 3 and 5. You need as many of those types of players as you do any of the others.

I love the fact that a light went on in his head the day Bruce got called up. Since then he's been OPS-ing around .950 with a bucket full of stolen bases. Rarely since then is there a game where he doesn't do something offensively, whether it's a walk and a SB, a single, RBI, SB, and a run, or whatever, and then the Defense he gives is that of a legitimate Center Fielder. I'm hoping he starts in CenterField next year for the REDS.

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 03:55 PM
I've seen guys like Dickerson "turn on a light" like he did when Bruce was called up. Then the big league club calls them up and the light is quickly turned off. It would be best for Dickerson to allow him to finish out the season at AAA with the "lights turned on", so he gets to develop some good habits and has some time under his belt with this new situation that he's in right now.

crazyredfan40
07-06-2008, 04:08 PM
I think that Dickerson can provide the things that Corey Patterson can and at a younger age and cheaper price...

Right now the big league club has an abundance of guys to play everyday...We have a solid 10...We are constantly leaving someone out of the lineup that one would want in the lineup...Like today it is Bruce...

Right now you really want Hairston in the lineup...So if you want Kepp as well you gotta put Hairston in CF and Kepp at SS...So then Bruce is out unless you move Griffey out of the lineup...

So what I am getting at that right now Patterson is probably the better option, just for the sake that Dickerson wouldn't be getting many at-bats up here and would be just a late inning defensive replacement and a pinch runner...

So as you said let Dickerson get some atbats...If someone goes down he would be next in line probably, but right now he is better off where he is...

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2008, 10:57 AM
OK, this is getting ridiculous. Chris Dickerson is on fire. If he were a year or two younger, he'd be considered a big time prospect by all the "experts". But no, he's 26. Oh my, how can you be any good, if you are 26 in AAA? Give me a break. I don't care about age and the stupid lables anymore. I've seen can't miss prospects within the Reds organization come up and struggle time and time again. Just this year for example - the super four. Bailey is awful. Votto is average. Bruce is struggling. Cueto is coming around, but he's struggled.

Maybe Dickerson isn't considered a "prospect", but what he's done the past season plus in Louisville convinces me. Besides, everybody's all-american and arguably the most overrated player in this organization, Jeff Keppinger, was older and had not accomplished much if anything more than Dickerson has at the minor league level and he has been given 600 plate appearances and worshipped all the while we watch Corey Patterson stink up the joint and Griffey sulk his way towards the end of his stay here.

Dickerson's last 1+ years in Louisville:

652 AB
174 H
22 2B
14 3B (!)
23 HR
89 RBI
97 BB
215 K (ouch!)
44/56 SB's
.816 OPS

If we are now going to watch this team smell it up from here on out, I'd rather it be with the future. Give this kid a chance. He's only 26 and he's already better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, and of course, Corey Patterson. Oh yes, I'd also wager that he's better than one Mr. Jerry Hairston as well.

Kc61
07-28-2008, 11:11 AM
Dickerson's last 1+ years in Louisville:

652 AB
174 H
22 2B
14 3B (!)
23 HR
89 RBI
97 BB
215 K (ouch!)
44/56 SB's
.816 OPS

If we are now going to watch this team smell it up from here on out, I'd rather it be with the future. Give this kid a chance. He's only 26 and he's already better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, and of course, Corey Patterson. Oh yes, I'd also wager that he's better than one Mr. Jerry Hairston as well.


I think at some point the next wave of AAA guys will come up for a look see. But you are equating minor league numbers with major league performance.

Isn't it an exaggeration to say that Dickerson is better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, Patterson and Hairston? Based on an .816 minor league OPS in his good period? (Overall Dickerson's minor league OPS is .767.)

Yes, I'm in favor of giving Dickerson a shot. I thought he might even be a fourth or fifth outfielder all season.

But let's keep some perspective about him and the other minor league guys. They may be able to contribute some day, but very, very few are destined to be good players on a winning team.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2008, 11:33 AM
But you are equating minor league numbers with major league performance.

No, I am not. If Dickerson could go .750 (with potential to get better), I'd be fine. And I think .750 right now is very realistic. It would be equal to Griffey and better than Hopper, Patterson, Freel, and Hairston and would come at a fraction of the price (with better or equal defense).


Isn't it an exaggeration to say that Dickerson is better than Junior, Hopper, Freel, Patterson and Hairston? Based on an .816 minor league OPS in his good period? (Overall Dickerson's minor league OPS is .767.)

I don't think it is. My opinion is that he'd be more productive offensively than Hopper, Freel, Patterson, and Hairston. I also think he'd be close to Junior offensively, but not be a statue in RF.

Kepp's minor league numbers are not much better, but all we've ever heard of is how he's always hit wherever he's been.

OnBaseMachine
07-28-2008, 11:35 AM
I'd love to see Griffey traded and Bruce moved back to right field with Chris Dickerson implemented as the starting center fielder against RHP. Dickerson is crushing right handers to the tune of .294/.388/.523 in 218 AAA atbats this season. Start him against RHP and find someone to platoon with him against left handers. Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF gives the Reds a very good outfield defense, something we Reds fans aren't used to seeing.

SMcGavin
07-28-2008, 11:47 AM
No, I am not. If Dickerson could go .750 (with potential to get better), I'd be fine. And I think .750 right now is very realistic.

That's his point... Dickerson's AAA numbers don't translate to a .750 guy in the majors. His major league equivalency, based on the numbers you gave:

.228/.312/.369

That's a .681 OPS. Sure it's possible he outperforms that, and since he's a good defender I wouldn't have a problem with giving him a trial if we could trade Griffey. But from a objective view, it's pretty unlikely Chris Dickerson will ever be an acceptable MLB starter.

I don't mean to call you out, because it's not just you and it's not just Dickerson. People on this forum almost always overrate the eventual ML impact of our prospects. That's the nature of being a fan, and it makes this a fun board, but it's not realistic.

flyer85
07-28-2008, 11:50 AM
as Bruce has shown, that AAA to MLB transition can be hard on the OPS ... as it is with most all players. It takes a year or two to figure it out, if they ever do. The rarity is the player that makes a seamless transition from minors to majors.

RedsManRick
07-28-2008, 12:06 PM
I think Dickerson is likely no more than a 4th OF. But the fact that he hasn't gotten the opportunity yet bugs me. At some point, you've got to let a guy like this have his shot. Either let him be an asset to the organization or use him in a trade. Letting him waste away in Louisville just doesn't help anybody.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2008, 12:21 PM
That's his point... Dickerson's AAA numbers don't translate to a .750 guy in the majors. His major league equivalency, based on the numbers you gave:

.228/.312/.369

That's a .681 OPS. .

So, .816 goes to .681? Wow, I guess you have to go crazy and OPS .900 to 1.000 in AAA to project as a productive hitter in the bigs. Personally, I'd rather watch and find out before I write him off.

Regardless, you won't know if he doesn't get a shot. And I'm not calling Dickerson the second coming. Actually my point was that I'm also sick and tired of prospects being overrated and I'd like to see a "non-prospect" (Dickerson) get a chance.

This team sucks and is not going anywhere. No point in not seeing what you have in AAA. And it's not like you have to mess with the 40-man as he's already on the roster.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2008, 12:27 PM
And even if he's at .681, it would be better than Patterson and not much worse than Freel, Hopper, and Hairston.

Also, it wouldn't mean he's .681 for life. It's not like the Reds are in a pennant race and can't afford someone coming up and going .681 in thier first look.

Griffey, Freel, Hopper, and Hairston are not part of the future of this team. We may need a guy like Dickerson to come up and platoon with a Stubbs and I can guarantee he won't be going .681, if it's in a platoon role.

kpresidente
07-28-2008, 12:32 PM
For the record, his OPS equivalency vs. RH is .724.

SMcGavin
07-28-2008, 12:38 PM
So, .816 goes to .681? Wow, I guess you have to go crazy and OPS .900 to 1.000 in AAA to project as a productive hitter in the bigs. Personally, I'd rather watch and find out before I write him off.


To quote myself: "Sure it's possible he outperforms that, and since he's a good defender I wouldn't have a problem with giving him a trial if we could trade Griffey." If that is writing him off... OK.

The most likely scenario is that Dickerson comes up here, plays good defense, and can't hit enough to become anything better than a reserve outfielder. That's fine, and it doesn't mean we shouldn't give him a shot in a lost season, but I wouldn't get my hopes too high.

And to address your first point, that is correct, guys who become capable MLB hitters are usually ones who mashed minor league pitching. Or alternatively, guys who held their own against minor league pitching at very young age, and were then allowed to do most of their improving in the majors.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-28-2008, 12:50 PM
I never said the guy would be a star.

I think we basically are in agreement.

His numbers in AAA warrant a call-up, regardless of their projected regression.

mace
07-31-2008, 08:46 PM
Was interested in Jocketty's comment that they want to see how the OF of Dunn, Hairston and Bruce plays out. Judging by that, my guess is they'll go with that for a month, then make Dickerson a September call-up and dabble in that little experiment. Dickerson-Hairston seems like a pretty fair platoon to me, and when Dickerson plays Hairston would be available for SS.

Spring~Fields
07-31-2008, 09:10 PM
I'd love to see Griffey traded and Bruce moved back to right field with Chris Dickerson implemented as the starting center fielder against RHP. Dickerson is crushing right handers to the tune of .294/.388/.523 in 218 AAA atbats this season. Start him against RHP and find someone to platoon with him against left handers. Dickerson in CF and Bruce in RF gives the Reds a very good outfield defense, something we Reds fans aren't used to seeing.

Are they holding him back because he bats left ? Doesn't seem like a good reason to me if it is.

Kingspoint
07-31-2008, 10:28 PM
They're not holding him back. They're letting him continue his growth. He hasn't ever hit like this before. It's best to let him continue doing it so that it becomes a habit.

AmarilloRed
08-01-2008, 01:11 AM
It may be that they are simply letting him get regular ABs in Louisville until September, then call him up when the rosters expand.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 12:07 PM
He should be playing everyday from here on out in Cincy.

Why do we need to see a full season of Jerry Hairston to get an idea of what he can do? He's already given us ten years of data.

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2008, 12:25 PM
I've already posted this in the Stubbs thread by accident, but Dickerson is no longer listed on the Louisville roster which could be an indication that he's getting the call to Cincy.

BRM
08-01-2008, 01:15 PM
Dickerson is back on the Bats roster now.

OnBaseMachine
08-01-2008, 01:33 PM
Dickerson is back on the Bats roster now.

Well aren't you just a little bearer of bad news today.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 01:38 PM
It was too good to be true.

I guess it was too much to expect from this clueless orgnanization.

BRM
08-01-2008, 01:39 PM
Hairston is still listed on the Bats roster too, FWIW.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-01-2008, 01:48 PM
Hairston is still listed on the Bats roster too, FWIW.

So that means......

Corey Patterson in CF.

Yippie.

Kingspoint
08-01-2008, 05:07 PM
It may be that they are simply letting him get regular ABs in Louisville until September, then call him up when the rosters expand.

That would be the best thing to do because there isn't any way that Dusty would pencil him in as the starter every single day if he was recalled.

mth123
08-03-2008, 11:32 AM
Up to 801 PA in AAA, with an OBP over .360 and a SLG over .450. He's 26, runs like the wind, and is a plus plus defender in CF. The Reds will control him throughout his prime and he'll come cheaply on a team that needs to save on its role players to be able to afford its main men.

He projects to .780 plus OPS during his peak seasons (starting in 2009 BTW) with an OBP in the .340s and a slugging % in the .430s. This seems like a no brainer for a shot at CF batting in the 7th spot. You'd think a team with the awful defensive issues would take a look at a top defender who would cost nothing and who is putting up those types of numbers only a level down. If he struggles, he's still a decent reserve OF option that saves some cash for other needs.

He's past the point of needing to prove anything else or even play every day at AAA. I'm not completely sold that he'll meet those projections, but he's worth a look if you ask me.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2008, 11:58 AM
Up to 801 PA in AAA, with an OBP over .360 and a SLG over .450. He's 26, runs like the wind, and is a plus plus defender in CF. The Reds will control him throughout his prime and he'll come cheaply on a team that needs to save on its role players to be able to afford its main men.

He projects to .780 plus OPS during his peak seasons (starting in 2009 BTW) with an OBP in the .340s and a slugging % in the .430s. This seems like a no brainer for a shot at CF batting in the 7th spot. You'd think a team with the awful defensive issues would take a look at a top defender who would cost nothing and who is putting up those types of numbers only a level down. If he struggles, he's still a decent reserve OF option that saves some cash for other needs.

He's past the point of needing to prove anything else or even play every day at AAA. I'm not completely sold that he'll meet those projections, but he's worth a look if you ask me.

Amen.

Joey Votto puts up an .859 OPS in 500+ plate apearances in AAA (as a 1st baseman) and he's Mr. ALL-WORLD super-duper prospect.

Chris Dickerson has managed to put up an .820+ OPS in 800+ AAA plate appearances (at a defensive-oriented position no less) with tons of speed (46/58 SB's) and he's Mr. chopped liver.

Seriously, I don't get it. Sometimes I think the "brain-trust" makes things way more difficult than necessary. This isn't rocket science for crying out loud.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 12:27 PM
Up to 801 PA in AAA, with an OBP over .360 and a SLG over .450. He's 26, runs like the wind, and is a plus plus defender in CF. The Reds will control him throughout his prime and he'll come cheaply on a team that needs to save on its role players to be able to afford its main men.

He projects to .780 plus OPS during his peak seasons (starting in 2009 BTW) with an OBP in the .340s and a slugging % in the .430s. This seems like a no brainer for a shot at CF batting in the 7th spot. You'd think a team with the awful defensive issues would take a look at a top defender who would cost nothing and who is putting up those types of numbers only a level down. If he struggles, he's still a decent reserve OF option that saves some cash for other needs.

He's past the point of needing to prove anything else or even play every day at AAA. I'm not completely sold that he'll meet those projections, but he's worth a look if you ask me.

Good post. Dickerson should have been up here yesterday.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 12:29 PM
Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.

LoganBuck
08-03-2008, 12:33 PM
Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.

It certainly would improve draft position.

nate
08-03-2008, 12:34 PM
Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.

Yes, please.

Kc61
08-03-2008, 12:37 PM
Amen.

Joey Votto puts up an .859 OPS in 500+ plate apearances in AAA (as a 1st baseman) and he's Mr. ALL-WORLD super-duper prospect.

Chris Dickerson has managed to put up an .820+ OPS in 800+ AAA plate appearances (at a defensive-oriented position no less) with tons of speed (46/58 SB's) and he's Mr. chopped liver.

Seriously, I don't get it. Sometimes I think the "brain-trust" makes things way more difficult than necessary. This isn't rocket science for crying out loud.

It's not rocket science but fans might want to consider the whole record before forming these kinds of absolute conclusions.

Dickerson has this year done well at AAA. But his overall AAA numbers coming into this year were weaker. In 2007 his OPS at AAA was below .800 and at AA was below .700 in 114 AA at bats.

Dickerson's lifetime minor league OPS is .772.

Dickerson has fanned 682 times in just over 2171 minor league at bats, which is a lot for a guy who has slugged .413.

The issue with Dickerson is whether he has finally overcome his offensive issues, or whether he is another 26 year old player who has figured out AAA. I'm sure he will be up with the Reds by September, at the latest, and I'd favor bringing him up. I wouldn't have minded him on the roster as a defensive guy much sooner, in fact.

But to compare Dickerson's offense to Votto -- who succeeded at AAA as a 23 year old hitter -- is not a particularly good comparison.

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 12:45 PM
It's not rocket science but fans might want to consider the whole record before forming these kinds of absolute conclusions.

Dickerson has this year done well at AAA. But his overall AAA numbers coming into this year were weaker. In 2007 his OPS at AAA was below .800 and at AA was below .700 in 114 AA at bats.

Dickerson's lifetime minor league OPS is .772.

Dickerson has fanned 682 times in just over 2171 minor league at bats, which is a lot for a guy who has slugged .413.

The issue with Dickerson is whether he has finally overcome his offensive issues, or whether he is another 26 year old player who has figured out AAA. I'm sure he will be up with the Reds by September, at the latest, but to compare his offense to Votto -- who succeeded at AAA as a 23 year old hitter -- is not a particularly good comparison.

Dickerson was always a toolsy guy with good potential but was still somewhat raw. Many of us on here have been predicting him to breakout for the past two or three seasons now, and while he showed glimpses of brilliance at times, he never quite put it together until this season. I think he's got a chance to develop into a poor man's Curtis Granderson, who like Dickerson is a speedy LH hitting center fielder who K's a lot and walks a lot. Dickerson also struggles mightily against LH pitchers much like Granderson. I'm not saying he's going to be develop into that type of player but I think he can be an average to be above average hitter for a center fielder.

RedlegJake
08-03-2008, 12:52 PM
Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.

Why would the offense be worse? Dickerson will be better than Patterson. How could you lose a bet like that? His defense would be night and day over Hairston. Better speed than even CPatt. Hanigan has always had a good OBP, his one brief stint in the majors was the same, very small sample but non-BA driven OBP translates better than BA or Slg. Hanigan should certainly hit better than Bako. The only place the offense would take a real hit with those 3 up is at SS. My guess is that the offense would suffer only slightly but the defense with Janish, Hanigan and Dickerson would improve tremendously. Combined with Phillips, the Reds up the middle defense would be very very good. Having Kepp coming off the bench would strengthen the reserves, too. And if Bako and Patterson went bye bye as a result so much the better. Hairston could still play CF against lefties which would help, and be available as a reserve the rest of the time.

redhawk61
08-03-2008, 01:02 PM
Hell, I wouldn't mind seeing the Reds callup Chris Dickerson, Paul Janish, and Ryan Hanigan and playing them everyday in September. The offense would be awful but it would be nice to see some actual defense at key positions.
Acctually the offense wouldn't change much. As Dickerson could do no worse than Patterson and Hanigan would probably be a big upgrade offensively to the other catchers, then you have Janish who wouldn't start but.

So really the offense would improve along with the defense hmmmm....;)

OnBaseMachine
08-03-2008, 01:07 PM
Why would the offense be worse? Dickerson will be better than Patterson. How could you lose a bet like that? His defense would be night and day over Hairston. Better speed than even CPatt. Hanigan has always had a good OBP, his one brief stint in the majors was the same, very small sample but non-BA driven OBP translates better than BA or Slg. Hanigan should certainly hit better than Bako. The only place the offense would take a real hit with those 3 up is at SS. My guess is that the offense would suffer only slightly but the defense with Janish, Hanigan and Dickerson would improve tremendously. Combined with Phillips, the Reds up the middle defense would be very very good. Having Kepp coming off the bench would strengthen the reserves, too. And if Bako and Patterson went bye bye as a result so much the better. Hairston could still play CF against lefties which would help, and be available as a reserve the rest of the time.

Good point. Now that I think of it, even the drop offensively from Keppinger to Janish wouldn't be all that drastic with the way Kepp has hit lately.

Kc61
08-03-2008, 01:18 PM
Dickerson was always a toolsy guy with good potential but was still somewhat raw. Many of us on here have been predicting him to breakout for the past two or three seasons now, and while he showed glimpses of brilliance at times, he never quite put it together until this season. I think he's got a chance to develop into a poor man's Curtis Granderson, who like Dickerson is a speedy LH hitting center fielder who K's a lot and walks a lot. Dickerson also struggles mightily against LH pitchers much like Granderson. I'm not saying he's going to be develop into that type of player but I think he can be an average to be above average hitter for a center fielder.

I don't disagree with the possibility he may be a decent platoon centerfielder. I do disagree with people calling the Reds incompetent because Dickerson is still in the minor leagues.

For whatever people expected might happen previously, this is the first good offensive showing for this player and it is entirely reasonable for the Reds to let him play out the string with the Bats this year. Bring him up for a September call up. Let him experience a successful AAA season before throwing him to the major leageue wolves.

Personally, I would move him up more aggressively, but I understand what the Reds are doing.

I also opposed sending Janish down. I don't think he's going to improve much in AAA and I think his defense brings some stability to the Reds when he's in there. And, at this point, I'd have Hanigan up and certainly Roenicke.

But I understand the Reds' approach. There are a lot of kids on the team already and I understand them going more slowly before the next batch arrives. And Dickerson probably will benefit (at least in his confidence) by the success he's having at AAA.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2008, 01:21 PM
It's not rocket science but fans might want to consider the whole record before forming these kinds of absolute conclusions.

What absolute conclusion? That Dickerson should be called up and playing over Corey Patterson? Umm, okay.


Dickerson has this year done well at AAA. But his overall AAA numbers coming into this year were weaker.

That's why I averaged his OPS over the two seasons. Last year .796. This year .841. It's .820 over two years. And look at that. Improvement.



In 2007 his OPS at AAA was below .800 and at AA was below .700 in 114 AA at bats.

His 2007 OPS in AAA was .796 and I could care less about 114 AB's in AA, when he's had 800+ plate appearances, since then, at AAA.


Dickerson's lifetime minor league OPS is .772.

And getting better everyday. Is it not possible to start slowly and then improve? Take a look at Grady Sizemore's minor league numbers (.788 career minor league OPS) and how they've improved each step of the way. Look at Jeff Keppinger. I just don't understand why some guys are written off just because they might develop their game later on his life. If we can give the second coming, Jeff Keppinger, nearly 600 plate appearances in little over a year, the least we can do his give Dickerson a shot, especially considering the alternative is now currently ranked 906 out of 912 hitters in VORP.


Dickerson has fanned 682 times in just over 2171 minor league at bats, which is a lot for a guy who has slugged .413.

Two words. Corey Patterson. That's your alternative. And he's 29 and sucks pretty bad.



But to compare Dickerson's offense to Votto -- who succeeded at AAA as a 23 year old hitter -- is not a particularly good comparison.

I think you know I wasn't comparing him to Votto in that sense. And frankly, I don't care if one is 23 and the other is 26. Jeff Keppinger was 27 when he was called up and although his career minor league OPS was under .800 all we ever heard was how he could hit, hit, hit. Hogwash.

BuckeyeRedleg
08-03-2008, 01:33 PM
KC, one other thing. If I remember correctly, last year you were leading 26-year old Phil Dumatrait's bandwagon even though his numbers in AAA were nothing special. You kept saying that he deserved a chance. After each pummeling, you would continue to defend him saying he was decent and that he should be given another chance.

Eventually after getting lit up like Homer Bailey (on his worst night) for the 6th straight start, you conceded that he was a bust and were wrong about him.

I guess I just don't understand why you were so adament about Phil Dumtrait getting a chance at 26 and so hesitent to give Dickerson one. At least Dickerson is shining in AAA, unlike Dumatrait's 213 IP in 2006 and 2007.

OnBaseMachine
08-05-2008, 12:42 PM
• Reds left fielder Danny Dorn stumbled toward the end of July with an 0-for-9 skid, but his 10 homers in the month brought him to 15 with Double-A Chattanooga and a .533 slugging percentage in 72 games for the Lookouts. Another Reds outfielder who thrived in July, 26-year-old Chris Dickerson, hit eight of his 11 home runs in July while batting .326/.422/.717 for the month. He’s one triple short of reaching double figures in doubles, triples, home runs and stolen bases. The only other minor leaguers to have done that this year are Twins outfielder Jason Pridie (Triple-A Rochester) and Red Sox outfielder Josh Riddick (high Class A Lancaster, Double-A Portland). U.S. Olympian Nate Schierholtz (Giants) is one stolen base short of the distinction.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1480#more-1480

OnBaseMachine
08-05-2008, 12:48 PM
Another update on Dickerson:

He went 3-for-5 last night with a double and 4 RBI and has two straight 3-hit games bringing his 2008 season totals to .284/.383/.482 - .865 OPS with 25 stolen bases in 32 attempts. He's got 14 doubles, 9 triples, and 11 homeruns in 328 atbats. He's hitting .295/.394/.529 - .922 against RHP and .250/.354/.345 - .699 against LHP. Even the .354 OBP against LHP isn't bad at all. Seriously, this guy can't help the Reds right now? What are you waiting on Walt?

RedsManRick
08-05-2008, 12:51 PM
You have to imagine Dickerson will get a cup of coffee in September if he's not here sooner. Even if he's only a platoon CF, it's hard to deny that the guy deserves a chance. Bring him up and give up 200 PA against major league pitching starting tomorrow. Andy Phillips or Valentin can hit the road.

camisadelgolf
08-05-2008, 01:34 PM
With Dickerson's speed and defense, he'd be worth more than Phillips' and Valentin's spots on the roster combined. I'd rather carry a 24-man roster with Dickerson than having those two guys on board.

kpresidente
08-05-2008, 02:29 PM
Acctually the offense wouldn't change much. As Dickerson could do no worse than Patterson and Hanigan would probably be a big upgrade offensively to the other catchers, then you have Janish who wouldn't start but.

I don't see Hanigan as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Ross has a 3-year .767 OPS, whereas Hanigan's ML equivalency is .615.

Kc61
08-05-2008, 04:20 PM
KC, one other thing. If I remember correctly, last year you were leading 26-year old Phil Dumatrait's bandwagon even though his numbers in AAA were nothing special. You kept saying that he deserved a chance. After each pummeling, you would continue to defend him saying he was decent and that he should be given another chance.

Eventually after getting lit up like Homer Bailey (on his worst night) for the 6th straight start, you conceded that he was a bust and were wrong about him.

I guess I just don't understand why you were so adament about Phil Dumtrait getting a chance at 26 and so hesitent to give Dickerson one. At least Dickerson is shining in AAA, unlike Dumatrait's 213 IP in 2006 and 2007.

I don't think you are accurately setting out my view on Dickerson. I've said consistently that I would bring him up with the Reds. Last off-season, I started a thread suggesting that he should be a backup on the team this year.

Where I disagree is all the nasty comments about the Reds' competence because Dickerson is at AAA. I don't think it's unreasonable to let him finish the AAA season, his first real good offensive year, and then bring him up in September. It's not my approach, but it's reasonable and understandable.

The Reds have a number of young players and I fully understand the team waiting for September before promoting the next batch. Likely, Dickerson, Hanigan, Janish (again), Roenicke, and Herrera. Possibly Pelland if he gets healthy enough.

If you look at Dickerson's minor league progression, it is perfectly reasonable to let him build confidence at AAA now that he's having some offensive success. I think either approach -- promotion now or in September -- is fair.

If I recall correctly, my main point with Dumatrait was that he had success at various levels after a break in period. Many RedsZoners wanted him out after only a few major league starts. I thought he deserved some time to get comfortable and then might well succeed. His performance ultimately required his return to the minor leagues.

I will similarly support Dickerson when he comes up. He's a great athlete and I hope he does great. But it's not terrible that his call up will likely be in September.

Kc61
08-05-2008, 04:22 PM
Delete. Extra post.

AmarilloRed
08-06-2008, 01:09 AM
I don't see Hanigan as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Ross has a 3-year .767 OPS, whereas Hanigan's ML equivalency is .615.

I do see him as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Hanigan is currently hitting .310 at Louisville, which is much better than our best hitting catcher, Valentin at .247. There will be a dropoff when Hanigan reaches the major leagues, but I wouldn't think he will hit less than .270. Ross will certainly hit you a number of HRs, but he doesn't hit well enough the rest of the time to be starting over Hanigan.

kpresidente
08-06-2008, 04:04 AM
I do see him as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Hanigan is currently hitting .310 at Louisville, which is much better than our best hitting catcher, Valentin at .247. There will be a dropoff when Hanigan reaches the major leagues, but I wouldn't think he will hit less than .270. Ross will certainly hit you a number of HRs, but he doesn't hit well enough the rest of the time to be starting over Hanigan.

I guess it comes down to whether you want a .270/.350/.350 line or a .230/.310/.450 line.

mth123
08-06-2008, 04:34 AM
I guess it comes down to whether you want a .270/.350/.350 line or a .230/.310/.450 line.

I want the one who can actually catch the ball. Not sure if its Hanigan. Pretty sure its not Ross.

AmarilloRed
08-06-2008, 02:38 PM
I guess it comes down to whether you want a .270/.350/.350 line or a .230/.310/.450 line.

As long as Hanigan plays good defense and can hit for a high average, I would see him as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Catcher is not a position where it is as important for you to be a slugger. You count it as a bonus if the player is, but it is more important that your catcher can hit, play good defense, and handle a pitching staff.

kpresidente
08-06-2008, 03:04 PM
I want the one who can actually catch the ball. Not sure if its Hanigan. Pretty sure its not Ross.

50% of playing catcher is calling the game. 30% is managing the relays, 20% is throwing out baserunners, and maybe 10% is receiving/blocking pitches.

Knowing who are the good defensive catchers is, unfortunately, not accessible to the average fan. There's very little in the way of stats showing how a guy manages his staff, and the TV feeds don't give a good enough angle to judge the defensive calls.

You can look at his CS%, but half of that is on the pitcher. You can look at PB, but they don't matter that much in the long run.

I know Ross has a reputation as a pretty good defensive catcher, so I'll go along with that.

kpresidente
08-06-2008, 03:06 PM
As long as Hanigan plays good defense and can hit for a high average, I would see him as an offensive upgrade over Ross. Catcher is not a position where it is as important for you to be a slugger. You count it as a bonus if the player is, but it is more important that your catcher can hit, play good defense, and handle a pitching staff.

I'll go by RC.

dougdirt
08-06-2008, 03:08 PM
I'll go by RC.

Thats offense only and at catcher, there is so much more to the position than offense.

kpresidente
08-06-2008, 03:11 PM
Thats offense only and at catcher, there is so much more to the position than offense.

Yes, I know. I played catcher from the time I was 6 until I was 25. But we were focusing on offense.

Danny Serafini
08-06-2008, 03:31 PM
50% of playing catcher is calling the game. 30% is managing the relays, 20% is throwing out baserunners, and maybe 10% is receiving/blocking pitches.

So that's what they mean when someone says he has to give 110%. ;)

kpresidente
08-06-2008, 03:48 PM
So that's what they mean when someone says he has to give 110%. ;)

HA! Well then, just drop the part about blocking pitches all the way down to zero. Blocking pitches isn't a realistic part of the major-league game. There's a certain point where it becomes humanly impossible. If a 90-95 MPH fastball is in the dirt and off the plate, you're just not going to block it. Nobody can move that fast. Maybe if you were expecting it, but even then, it's unrealistic. The only pitches that get blocked in the bigs are the ones that are right down the middle. The catcher only has to drop to his knees. And those are just as easy to scoop unless its junk (but don't tell the kids that). Anything off the plate means you're going to kick your leg out and rotate about 25 degrees toward 1st or 3rd base. If you don't rotate, the ball will bounce away from you and the runners will get their bases anyway. There just isn't enough time to react.

mth123
08-06-2008, 08:42 PM
50% of playing catcher is calling the game. 30% is managing the relays, 20% is throwing out baserunners, and maybe 10% is receiving/blocking pitches.

Knowing who are the good defensive catchers is, unfortunately, not accessible to the average fan. There's very little in the way of stats showing how a guy manages his staff, and the TV feeds don't give a good enough angle to judge the defensive calls.

You can look at his CS%, but half of that is on the pitcher. You can look at PB, but they don't matter that much in the long run.

I know Ross has a reputation as a pretty good defensive catcher, so I'll go along with that.


Managing a staff and managing relays is part of what I was talking about when I say "catching the ball." It does also include receiving, which a catcher does on every single play and is not a minor part of a catcher's job. IMO 75% of a catcher's worth is in that entire area, about 15% is hitting, the rest is fairly minor (including the "vastly over rated because its the only thing with a stat" throwing out baserunners) and comprises the final 10%.

For the record, throwing out runners was much more important in the stolen base era. In today's game, it seems like a misguided criteria in evaluating a catcher.

Oh and BTW, I think Ross is terrible. Actually, now that Ken Griffey Jr. is in the AL, he may be the single worst defender in the National League at any position.

Kingspoint
08-06-2008, 11:29 PM
Not sure what you guys are talking about, but I'm assuming it's related to Dickerson.

Glad to see Dickerson continuing to smash the ball.

I didn't know if it was just going to be for a couple of weeks after Bruce was recalled and then he'd come back to earth, but then he kept it up for a whole month. He kept it up for another 10 days before they had their All-Star break. When he came back from that, he kept it up. Then he got hurt and he came back from that and he kept it up.

He's now nearing the end of 10 weeks of maintaining this hitting prowess that certainly no one saw coming. The REDS have handled it great by not taking him out of the environment that's been so good to him.

The key to Dickerson was to see if he could maintain it over the course of 2 or 3 months. So far, so good. When this test is over at the end of August, he'll be ready as he could ever be for the next test in September.

If he could get 75 at-bats with Cincinnati in September, that's more than anyone ever gets in Spring Training for the REDS, and it will come against teams fighting for a playoff spot in Chicago, Milwaukie, St. Louis, etc.

BTW, while DH'ing tonight, he was pinch-hit for....odd for a guy who's as hot as he is.

OnBaseMachine
08-07-2008, 12:01 AM
BTW, while DH'ing tonight, he was pinch-hit for....odd for a guy who's as hot as he is.

I noticed that too. I'm hoping it means he's getting called up...

kpresidente
08-07-2008, 06:34 PM
Oh and BTW, I think Ross is terrible. Actually, now that Ken Griffey Jr. is in the AL, he may be the single worst defender in the National League at any position.

Don't tell that to Prince Fielder.

kpresidente
08-07-2008, 06:59 PM
Oh and BTW, I think Ross is terrible. Actually, now that Ken Griffey Jr. is in the AL, he may be the single worst defender in the National League at any position.

Here's what Lindy's says about David Ross:
David Ross hit .203 last season, but still contributed with good power and excellent defense, hitting 17 home runs and throwing out 41 percent of base stealers. Ross is also regarded as a fine handler of pitchers.

mth123
08-07-2008, 07:53 PM
Here's what Lindy's says about David Ross:
David Ross hit .203 last season, but still contributed with good power and excellent defense, hitting 17 home runs and throwing out 41 percent of base stealers. Ross is also regarded as a fine handler of pitchers.

I don't consider Lindy's or any of those preseason magazines (fantasy or otherwise) a credible source on these types of topics. Most comments about a catcher's defense are uninformed opinions that some one assumed based on the only stat available - the CS%. I just don't give that one much weight.

camisadelgolf
08-08-2008, 12:47 AM
Personally, I consider Ross to be, at worst, average, defensively, as an MLB catcher.

mth123
08-10-2008, 07:27 AM
Watching the Cards-Cubs game yesterday, the parallels between Chris Dickerson and Skip Schumaker struck me. Schumaker, until this season, was a 27 year old seemingly career minor leaguer whose offensive game came together gradually until he finally put up a pretty decent year in AAA last season. Schumaker is also a competent, fairly rangey defender who got his chance when his team cut loose its decllining star (Edmonds) and let go of his overpriced journeyman caddy (Taguchi).

I could easily see this happening with the Reds and Dickerson. Dickerson is breaking out offensively in AAA this year, the Reds just let go of their declining star (Griffey), and I have to believe that the overpriced caddy (Patterson) is gone after this year. Schumaker made his improvements by increasing his batting average. Improved BA for Dickerson in AAA has had an even greater effect as he has more power and better OBP skills than Schumaker. Add that Dickerson is faster, even more rangy and is breaking out a year sooner, and it just makes the thought of Dickerson becoming the useful role player that Schumaker has proven to be even more possible (not guaranteed by any stretch). If Dickerson could do what Schumaker has, the team would solve a bunch of problems, not the least of which is fixing the OF defense with he and hopefully a better Bruce than we have seen so far out there.

Here is a closer look at the parallels between the two:




Name AB BB H 2B 3B HR BA OBP SLG OPS SB CS Range
Schumaker 2615 250 769 134 20 25 0.29 0.353 0.385 0.738 89 48 2.14
Dickerson 2193 328 570 91 27 58 0.26 0.36 0.415 0.775 135 42 2.22



The OPS progression by age is even more interesting:




Age SS CD
21 0.693 0.770
22 0.693 0.775
23 0.670 0.708
24 0.806 0.779
25 0.732 0.768
26 0.730 0.864
27 0.848 N/A



Tony Larussa found a way to utilize his lefty hitting defensive player with great results. Can Dusty do the same?

RedsManRick
08-10-2008, 10:11 AM
Tony Larussa found a way to utilize his lefty hitting defensive player with great results. Can Dusty do the same?

Let's remember that Dusty can only do with what's on his 25 roster. Until and unless Dickerson gets promoted, the question is whether or not Jocketty will give Dusty the chance to utilize him.

kpresidente
08-10-2008, 12:09 PM
I don't consider Lindy's or any of those preseason magazines (fantasy or otherwise) a credible source on these types of topics. Most comments about a catcher's defense are uninformed opinions that some one assumed based on the only stat available - the CS%. I just don't give that one much weight.
Well, they're not getting the part about him managing pitchers well from any stat that I know of. It's probably based on reputation but might possibly come from an inside source or a scouting report that they got ahold of.

But that's fine. I don't necessarily give them a whole lot of credibility either. I just wanted to note the sharp contrast between that and "the worst defensive player in the NL", as you termed it.

Guess it won't matter much anyway, Ross got DFA'd and we can get back to Chris Dickerson.

mth123
08-10-2008, 12:17 PM
Well, they're not getting the part about him managing pitchers well from any stat that I know of. It's probably based on reputation but might possibly come from an inside source or a scouting report that they got ahold of.



Or they saw the CS% and assumed the rest. Those mags aren't that good for that level of detail. They are good for informing the average fan of the obvious stuff that people who follow closely already know. The Red Sox are good. Albert Pujols can hit. Stuff like that.

OnBaseMachine
08-10-2008, 09:39 PM
Is there more to come? Somebody asked manager Dusty Baker about outfielder Chris Dickerson.

“Dickerson has had one of his better offensive years and is getting better offensively. What’s he hitting, about .280?” said Baker. “He still has some things to learn and work to do, but I have my eye on him. I go through the reports.”

http://www.daytondailynews.com/blogs/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Redman15
08-11-2008, 03:22 PM
With Dunn gone, is Chris headed to Cincy? I hope so, he would be a upgrade over Patterson. I would bump Dorn to Louisville when Chris gets the call.

OnBaseMachine
08-11-2008, 04:38 PM
The Reds haven’t replaced Dunn on the 40-man roster and it is a sound bet that outfielder Chris Dickerson will be called up from Class AAA Louisville.

http://www.daytondailynews.com/o/content/shared-gen/blogs/dayton/cincinnatireds/

Kingspoint
08-12-2008, 02:31 AM
I don't consider Lindy's or any of those preseason magazines (fantasy or otherwise) a credible source on these types of topics. Most comments about a catcher's defense are uninformed opinions that some one assumed based on the only stat available - the CS%. I just don't give that one much weight.


Agree....I'd rather speak to the 75-year old ex-Major League Ballplayer that hangs out at the stadium whether it be a minor league one or major league one. The conversations you can get with these guys are priceless. You just need to search them out as they are out there everywhere. It's hard to get away from the game you love so much that's treated you so well.