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View Full Version : That Trio of Outfielders in Chattanooga....



Kingspoint
07-05-2008, 09:55 PM
Unfortunately, none of them are Centerfielders, but that's OK. You can't have enough good hitters.

LH Shaun Cumberland Age 23; 251 AB's .303/.393/.474/.867

LH Daniel Dorn Age 23; 152 AB's .263/.365/.487/.852

RH Sean Henry Age 22; 222 AB's .306/.380/.477/.857


And don't forget that 1B Yonder Alonso should catch these guys by the end of next year in AAA, making the REDS having to make a decision on whether to play him in the Outfield for Joey Votto in the Outfield.

Kingspoint
07-05-2008, 10:35 PM
We have way too many quality players to take Adam Dunn's place to even consider keeping Adam Dunn around. He needs to be traded for whatever the team can get for him.

It makes no sense to pay Dunn $15M per year when he'll likely have seasons that are worse than the best of the Outfielders that will potentially replace him at 1/20th the cost.

Baseball Tonight just said that there aren't likely too many teams interested in Adam Dunn as there are Major League scouts that think that Dunn's bat speed is getting worse.

Dunn's trade value is not likely to be any better than it is now, but because he's going to be a free-agent anyway at the end of the year, maybe we should just keep Dunn, let him walk and get the draft picks. Personally, I'd rather trade for a AA or AAA Centerfielder or Catcher.

JaxRed
07-05-2008, 10:37 PM
Cumberland is a CF

Kingspoint
07-05-2008, 10:41 PM
Cumberland is a CF

But, that's not where they've been playing him this year the most.

That's good, though, as it's nice to have guys who may not be pure Centerfielders, but can play it decently enough.


Here's Cumberland's games:

RF-44, CF-28, LF-4

Kingspoint
07-05-2008, 10:43 PM
Cody Strait....CF-31, LF-23, RF-15, DH-1

B. J. Sysmanski....CF-32, RF-14

crazyredfan40
07-05-2008, 10:56 PM
Dorn has been struggling so far this year...Would like to see him get hot...

BEETTLEBUG
07-05-2008, 11:15 PM
Cody Strait is a Royal now.

Kingspoint
07-05-2008, 11:24 PM
Cody Strait is a Royal now.

So, then I assume that Cumberland is getting his starts in CF?

Spring~Fields
07-05-2008, 11:53 PM
Unfortunately, none of them are Centerfielders, but that's OK. You can't have enough good hitters.

LH Shaun Cumberland Age 23; 251 AB's .303/.393/.474/.867

LH Daniel Dorn Age 23; 152 AB's .263/.365/.487/.852

RH Sean Henry Age 22; 222 AB's .306/.380/.477/.857


And don't forget that 1B Yonder Alonso should catch these guys by the end of next year in AAA, making the REDS having to make a decision on whether to play him in the Outfield for Joey Votto in the Outfield.

I was reviewing the AA players also today, and I was rather impressed with the number of players and what seems to be very good progress in them.

dougdirt
07-06-2008, 11:30 AM
Dorn has been struggling so far this year...Would like to see him get hot...

Thats not even close to true. Dorn struggled in April, went on the DL with a cut when he needed 18 stitches in his leg. Since he came back in mid May he has an OPS over .880. He has 20 XBH in his last 135 at bats.

Screwball
07-06-2008, 11:43 AM
We have way too many quality players to take Adam Dunn's place to even consider keeping Adam Dunn around. He needs to be traded for whatever the team can get for him.

It makes no sense to pay Dunn $15M per year when he'll likely have seasons that are worse than the best of the Outfielders that will potentially replace him at 1/20th the cost.


So these players you speak of can't even OPS above .870 against AA pitching, yet will somehow replace Dunn's .900+ OPS once they reach the Majors? Right.

It makes plenty of sense to pay Dunn market value (or a tad more) when he's probably the best offensive player on the team. I guess it's gonna take Dunn being in another city getting on base 40% of the time and slugging about .550 against the Reds before fans realize how much production he actually brings to this offense.

You think the Reds have trouble scoring runs now? Just try and replace Dunn with Sean Henry and see where it gets you.

dougdirt
07-06-2008, 11:45 AM
So these players you speak of can't even OPS above .870 against AA pitching, yet will somehow replace Dunn's .900+ OPS once they reach the Majors? Right.

It makes plenty of sense to pay Dunn market value (or a tad more) when he's probably the best offensive player on the team. I guess it's gonna take Dunn being in another city getting on base 40% of the time and slugging about .550 against the Reds before fans realize how much production he actually brings to this offense.

You think the Reds have trouble scoring runs now? Just try and replace Dunn with Sean Henry and see where it gets you.

They don't have to replace Dunn's .900 OPS, they have to replace some of it, then replace his defense and use the 15 million they will save on not having Dunn and spend it elsewhere to help make the team better as well.

Screwball
07-06-2008, 11:51 AM
They don't have to replace Dunn's .900 OPS, they have to replace some of it, then replace his defense and use the 15 million they will save on not having Dunn and spend it elsewhere to help make the team better as well.

They better be chasing down every fly ball that goes to left to even the gap between their offensive productions.

Although you do have a point with the $15 million being spent elsewhere. However, unless we were to land Mark Teixeira or somebody of that caliber, then the team would almost certainly regress.

dougdirt
07-06-2008, 11:57 AM
They better be chasing down every fly ball that goes to left to even the gap between their offensive productions.

Although you do have a point with the $15 million being spent elsewhere. However, unless we were to land Mark Teixeira or somebody of that caliber, then the team would almost certainly regress.

I don't think they will 'even the gap' with their defense, but with the extra money they would save if they go that route would be something that could indeed make the team better overall if they chose to go that route.

_Sir_Charles_
07-06-2008, 11:59 AM
They better be chasing down every fly ball that goes to left to even the gap between their offensive productions.

Although you do have a point with the $15 million being spent elsewhere. However, unless we were to land Mark Teixeira or somebody of that caliber, then the team would almost certainly regress.

I'm not so sure about that. Remember that we'd also have one more year under the belts of both Votto and Bruce. Junior's black hole in the lineup will also most likely be gone. Thier replacements don't have to duplicate their power numbers. They just have to get on base at a nice clip. Hitters who hit for average are what we should be looking for. In our ballpark you don't have to hit the ball a country mile like Dunn does. Average power is enough...as long as that's coupled with some solid contact.

crazyredfan40
07-06-2008, 12:00 PM
Thats not even close to true. Dorn struggled in April, went on the DL with a cut when he needed 18 stitches in his leg. Since he came back in mid May he has an OPS over .880. He has 20 XBH in his last 135 at bats.

I guess it was his bad performance of 0-6 last night and the night before 0-4 that got me thinking that way...I had just thought that he had been struggling this year...I guess I should of looked farther into the stats than his .253 batting average...

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 02:04 PM
I'm not so sure about that. Remember that we'd also have one more year under the belts of both Votto and Bruce. Junior's black hole in the lineup will also most likely be gone. Thier replacements don't have to duplicate their power numbers. They just have to get on base at a nice clip. Hitters who hit for average are what we should be looking for. In our ballpark you don't have to hit the ball a country mile like Dunn does. Average power is enough...as long as that's coupled with some solid contact.

And hit with RISP. Dunn's career mark of .212 is atrociously bad. The reason the Twins are winning this year is because the entire team hits .316 w/ RISP. Do they have a Dunn on their squad? No, they have players that play good defense and get a hit when it counts.

And, let's not forget about Drew Stubbs, who's 3 years away from playing Centerfield for the REDS. So, right there, that's 6 young outfielders who'll all need a place to play in 2 and 3 years, and the thought of what Dunn will be like 3 years from now is frightening. Will he be struggling to hit .200 then and hitting .180 w/ RISP, while striking out 250 times? The only times he'll hit homeruns then will be when the REDS are either down by 5 or up by 5 when it doesn't matter.

With "at least" 6 solid replacements available in the next 2 and 3 years, it just doesn't make any sense to offer Dunn a contract. He's not signing a 1-year deal, so trade him as soon as possible.

icehole3
07-06-2008, 02:25 PM
I agree Dunn just isnt worth 15 million a year, only a handful of guys are worth that type of money.

Screwball
07-06-2008, 02:31 PM
Batting average with RISP? Really??

I'm gonna go ahead and step out of the discussion. I've seen this dead horse beaten too many times.

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 02:36 PM
....and no, I'm not bashing Dunn, as I praise him as much as anyone. But, reality is reality, Screwball, whether you want to admit it or not. When runners are in scoring position, Dunn has been Dave Kingman's clone his entire career.

All 6 of these up-and-coming Outfielders will do better in that position, and if the ones that make it to the Majors bat 4th or 5th like Dunn has most of the time, then they'll have no problem producing the same 100 RBI's every season. Their defense will be much better, and the team will win more games because of their payroll cost that's saved that can be used on someone else, and because of their overall production on gamedays.

lollipopcurve
07-06-2008, 02:42 PM
All 6 of these up-and-coming Outfielders will do better in that position, and if the ones that make it to the Majors bat 4th or 5th like Dunn has most of the time, then they'll have no problem producing the same 100 RBI's every season.

Years from now you may look back on this infatuation like you look back on your first relationship in middle school.

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 03:08 PM
Years from now you may look back on this infatuation like you look back on your first relationship in middle school.

R U Kidding me? Do you know how easy it is to hit better than .212 w/ RISP. It's almost impossible to do that poorly over an entire career. Usually your career comes to a screeching halt.

All 6 of those will have no problem hitting above .212 w/ RISP for their careers.

Maybe you thought I meant that all six of them would be better than Dunn. If so, that's not what I was saying. I was just saying that all 6 would be better w/ RISP over their careers, which probably has a 98% chance of being correct.

As far as how many of the six will have as good of careers as Dunn, I think that at two of them will. Yonder Alonso is one, and among Joey Votto, Dorn, Henry, Cumberland, and Stubbs, that one of them will do as well when it's all said and done.

And, who knows what other Outfielders the REDS will have come up 3 years from now that a "signed Dunn" would prevent from joining the team.

crazyredfan40
07-06-2008, 03:31 PM
I am going to piggyback on the idea where this thread is going a little bit with the depth so to speak of guys that have a chance to make the club in the outfield...

You also have the guys that right now are getting time at 3rd and 1st thru out the system who could be corner outfielders as well...

So lets throw out there that you probably have Dickerson, Stubbs, Cumberland, and Henry that can hold down CF...

After that you have Bruce, Votto, EE, Dorn, Frazier, Waring, Francisco, Alonso, Soto as guys that project to the 1B, 3B, LF, RF...

Bruce has RF locked down for 10+ years so we have 3 spots for 8 guys + 3 of the others that don't hold down CF...

You have to think that Alonso will be a for sure guy to make the majors and probably by 2010...Assuming he take 1st and Votto moves to LF, and EE is still here, that looks like the 4 right now...Then put Dickerson/Stubbs/Cumberland in CF in 2010 or a trade, free agent...

Where does that leave guys like Dorn, Frazier, Waring, Francisco, Soto...

I would assume that maybe we move a guy like EE and bring up Frazier when he is ready, and the others are not for sure major league guys, other than Soto who is probably looking at 2011...

Either way it is a great problem to have with depth at these positions...If only we had some depth at SS, 2B, and C...

Those guys will provide cheap bats off the bench as well, which is always a good thing to have...

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 03:42 PM
I am going to piggyback on the idea where this thread is going a little bit with the depth so to speak of guys that have a chance to make the club in the outfield...

You also have the guys that right now are getting time at 3rd and 1st thru out the system who could be corner outfielders as well...

So lets throw out there that you probably have Dickerson, Stubbs, Cumberland, and Henry that can hold down CF...

After that you have Bruce, Votto, EE, Dorn, Frazier, Waring, Francisco, Alonso, Soto as guys that project to the 1B, 3B, LF, RF...

Bruce has RF locked down for 10+ years so we have 3 spots for 8 guys + 3 of the others that don't hold down CF...

You have to think that Alonso will be a for sure guy to make the majors and probably by 2010...Assuming he take 1st and Votto moves to LF, and EE is still here, that looks like the 4 right now...Then put Dickerson/Stubbs/Cumberland in CF in 2010 or a trade, free agent...

Where does that leave guys like Dorn, Frazier, Waring, Francisco, Soto...

I would assume that maybe we move a guy like EE and bring up Frazier when he is ready, and the others are not for sure major league guys, other than Soto who is probably looking at 2011...

Either way it is a great problem to have with depth at these positions...If only we had some depth at SS, 2B, and C...

Those guys will provide cheap bats off the bench as well, which is always a good thing to have...

That's it in a nutshell.

...in addition, it was suggested that .850 OPS' in AA aren't good enough to be a suitable replacement for Dunn.

So, what is an .850 OPS worth in the Southern League (Chattanooga's league)? There are 10 teams in the league, so average would be one guy in the TOP-10, and 2 in the TOP-20.

Currently, Sean Henry's .867 OPS is ranked 10th, and Shaun Cumberland's .866 is ranked 11th. So, as a whole they are where they should be if they didn't have anyone else in the TOP-20. Daniel Dorn's .821 would be ranked 20th if he had enough at-bats, but he only has 158 AB's. Dorn's .468 SLG would rank 13th. And, since Dorn started out so slowly in April (along with an injury), his totals since then would compare against the TOP-10 in the League.

So, clearly is some great potential among the quantity of possibilities.

Screwball
07-06-2008, 04:21 PM
I know I said I'd step out of the discussion, but I wanted to point out that, at age 21, Adam Dunn had a 1.103 OPS in AA, and then a 1.107 OPS in AAA. His best OPS in the majors was .957 in '04.

BTW, please, please don't use BA as a reliable metric to evaluate a player. If you only look at one stat (in a cherrypicked situation no less), use OPS.

Okay, I'm really done this time.

Kingspoint
07-06-2008, 06:26 PM
I know I said I'd step out of the discussion, but I wanted to point that, at age 21, Adam Dunn had a 1.103 OPS in AA, and then a 1.107 OPS in AAA. His best OPS in the majors was .957 in '04.

BTW, please, please don't use BA as a reliable metric to evaluate a player. If you only look at one stat (in a cherrypicked situation no less), use OPS.

Okay, I'm really done this time.

With numbers like that, what has been his problem then? Anyone else with numbers like that would have done a lot better than Dunn has. He can't even make the All-Star game when he's supposed to be at his prime age of 28. Doubt that will be Alonzo or Bruce's problem when they are 28. Dunn isn't as good of a Major Leaguer as he was a Minor Leaguer. That's obvious.

Spring~Fields
07-06-2008, 08:46 PM
I will ask the questions here since Kingspoint already has a thread started regarding some of the same players.


Name POS G AB OBP SLG AVG OPS
Tonys Gutierrez 1B 80 254 .420 .382 .291 .802
Michael DeJesus 2B 28 87 .417 .402 .310 .820
Shaun Cumberland RF 78 256 .393 .473 .305 .866
Sean Henry LF 67 226 .384 .482 .310 .867
Justin Turner 2B 37 128 .381 .445 .289 .826
Daniel Dorn OF 50 158 .353 .468 .253 .822
Chris Valaika SS 54 210 .345 .438 .281 .783
Eric Eymann SS 78 277 .331 .444 .300 .775

Are any of these players getting near to being promoted to AAA Louisville or will they more likely spend the rest of the season getting experience at AA Chattanooga ?

Is there some kind of standard that teams would like to see a player reach, such as games played, at bats, while putting up good numbers before promotions? What are those amount of games and numbers for AA players, approximately, since it would vary?

These players look encouraging to me. I don’t know every facet about them though, as those of you who follow the minors would know them much deeper than I do, is why I am asking.

crazyredfan40
07-06-2008, 09:15 PM
I would say that Henry and Cumberland are the only one of the list looking at a promotion right now...I put them too, because right now I kinda think they are the same type of player and are putting up the same type numbers...From Jax when he saw them live he said they were basically interchangeable...

Valaika and Turner haven't been there that long...

Dorn has put up some solid numbers after struggling early as Doug pointed out to me today...He could be a guy that gets a promotion later in the season...

gedred69
07-07-2008, 07:11 PM
Since someone mentioned Dunn,s Minors OPS, what happened to the "Hitter" he was all through the system, only to become so Kingmanesque in the Majors? I heard it said that whoever the Hitting Coach was when Dunn came up convinced him a big guy like him should hit HRs. I think that was before Chambliss, don't remember, but love of the longball de-railed him IMO. He swings from the heels, instead of just hitting. Too bad, he coulda' been somebody.

nate
07-07-2008, 07:52 PM
With numbers like that, what has been his problem then? Anyone else with numbers like that would have done a lot better than Dunn has. He can't even make the All-Star game when he's supposed to be at his prime age of 28. Doubt that will be Alonzo or Bruce's problem when they are 28. Dunn isn't as good of a Major Leaguer as he was a Minor Leaguer. That's obvious.

No wonder Gary Redus isn't in Cooperstown!

dougdirt
07-07-2008, 07:54 PM
No wonder Gary Redus isn't in Cooperstown!

Nice reference there that might go over a lot of heads.

nate
07-07-2008, 07:56 PM
Nice reference there that might go over a lot of heads.

I can make a Powerpoint presentation if that'll help!

lollipopcurve
07-07-2008, 08:58 PM
No wonder Gary Redus isn't in Cooperstown!

.462

Blitz Dorsey
07-07-2008, 09:42 PM
At my first-ever Reds game in 1983, I saw Gary Redus beat Dale Murphy in a pre-game home run derby.

Redus led the Reds with 17 HRs that year. Oh yeah, that's right.

VR
07-08-2008, 01:13 AM
I dug Gary Redus.

there, I said it.

I think Alan Knicely would have been a good reference as well.

camisadelgolf
07-08-2008, 05:21 AM
I can make a Powerpoint presentation if that'll help!

I got the reference, but I'd love to see the Powerpoint anyway.

Spring~Fields
07-08-2008, 07:28 AM
I would say that Henry and Cumberland are the only one of the list looking at a promotion right now...I put them too, because right now I kinda think they are the same type of player and are putting up the same type numbers...From Jax when he saw them live he said they were basically interchangeable...

Valaika and Turner haven't been there that long...

Dorn has put up some solid numbers after struggling early as Doug pointed out to me today...He could be a guy that gets a promotion later in the season...

Thank you.

I am just so hopeful of these guys, as I wrote, I find them encouraging.

AmarilloRed
07-10-2008, 01:55 AM
Sean Henry really seems to be turning it on now. He went 1 for 5 tonight with a HR, which dropped his BA to .324. Here are his updated numbers: 71 games, 244 AB, 46 runs, 79 hits, 15 doubles, 4 triples, 7 hr, 46 RBI, 123 total bases, 24 walks, 48 strikeouts, 11 stolen bases, a .394 OBP, and a .504 SLG. I think those are pretty impressive numbers for half a season, and I want to see what he can do the rest of the year in Louisville.

Spring~Fields
07-10-2008, 08:58 AM
Sean Henry really seems to be turning it on now. He went 1 for 5 tonight with a HR, which dropped his BA to .324. Here are his updated numbers: 71 games, 244 AB, 46 runs, 79 hits, 15 doubles, 4 triples, 7 hr, 46 RBI, 123 total bases, 24 walks, 48 strikeouts, 11 stolen bases, a .394 OBP, and a .504 SLG. I think those are pretty impressive numbers for half a season, and I want to see what he can do the rest of the year in Louisville.

Wow another bright spot......

camisadelgolf
07-10-2008, 09:07 AM
And everyone criticized the Jeff Conine acquisition . . .

nate
07-10-2008, 10:46 AM
I got the reference, but I'd love to see the Powerpoint anyway.

OK, the Powerpoint is done. Send me a PM if you want to see it!

camisadelgolf
07-10-2008, 11:10 AM
OK, the Powerpoint is done. Send me a PM if you want to see it!

The Powerpoint is brilliant. I just wish there were more people around to get the joke.

If you want to see it, I'll send you a PM. The file's kind of big, so I won't put a direct link here.