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crazyredfan40
07-06-2008, 10:49 PM
Right now we have quite a bit of guys that look like they are going to make the majors...Walt is going to be busy promoting guys, and probably trading some guys for parts that we need at the major league level...Right now at the major league level there is a lot of youth...

So here is what you do...How do you guys see guys moving up through the system...When do you see them at each level...You don't have to do all the guys I did, and you can add some guys that I forgot if you want to as well...Just trying to get an idea on how some feel the movement thru the system might be...



C

Hanigan - See him as the starter or backup catcher at the major league level next year

Mes - Think he will be in the majors maybe late 2010 early 2011...See him at Dayton to start next year, and then to Sarasota late in the season...

1B

Alonso - We haven't got him signed yet, but I think that he could be ready by late next season if he hits well with wooden bats or up in 2010 to start the season...

2B

Turner - He is a guy that continues to put up numbers along with Valaika but doesn't really get all the notice...Probably a bench utility guy in maybe 2010...

SS

Janish - He could make the team out of spring training next year, but he is really nothing more than a defensive replacement and if we have Kepp and Hairston on the team there is no need for Janish...I see him as a guy in AAA that we call up if a guy gets injured.

Valaika - Some don't see him staying at SS, but I think that maybe by the end of 2009 he could see some time, but more than likely he will be up at the beginning of 2010...I think at some point he will man the starting SS, or he could play 2B if the club parts ways with Phillips at all...Really he could probably play anywhere and be a good utility man and bench player, until he finds a position...

Cozart - a guy that has been hitting the ball well...He can stick with his D for sure...How will his bat progress is the question...Maybe a late 2010 guy...

3B

Rosales - I think that if he can finish the season off good he could be up with the team as a RH bat off the bench next season.

Frazier - Really like his game, he can be the RH power bat that we need in the outfield if they see him as a LF...He could also play 3B, 1B as well...I see Chatanooga later in the season maybe...Start there next season and up in Louisville late in the season...Starter in 2010 somewhere...

Francisco/Waring - These are two guys that have trouble at the plate with k's, Francisco struggles with plate discipline...Both have big time power if they can ever get their plate problems taken care of...Not sure when they project...

Soto - He is looking like a stud...Dayton the rest of this year...maybe ready by 2010 late in the season?

OF

Dickerson - I think that right now he is better off getting at bats in AAA, Patterson is filling the role I see Dickerson filling if he were to come up...Maybe sometime this year or early next year...

Dorn - He is probably relegated to LF or 1B...Doesn't play great defense, but he has put up good numbers as a hitter...Maybe a bat off the bench...Not sure if I see him as a guy that will be a starter for the Reds...Probably late 2009 for a callup if they need a bat...

Cumberland/Henry - These guys seem to be the same type player...putting up good numbers...I think cumberland is more athletic and could man CF...I see one of them in Louisville in a couple weeks...Not sure if either of these guys see the majors in a starting role...

Drew Stubbs - I continue to be very high on him...He has had a great last week...Putting up power numbers...He has the defense you want from you CF, he can make things happen on the basepaths...I see a call up to Chatanooga later in the season...Then a start either there or in Louisville next season depending on how he does...I think late 2009 or early 2010, and I see him starting in CF for a couple years of his career...

Heisey - Just continues to put up numbers...No idea where he fits in tho...

SP

Bailey - I hope that he can work things out...I see him in AAA the rest of the way, maybe a start or two late in the season depending on how we are doing in the race...See him as making the team out ST next season as the 4 or 5 man...

Thompson - I see the same thing as I see for Bailey for Thompson

Maloney - Really not sure where he fits in...Maybe he gets the next chance if they need a call-up as the two above him have already got their chance...Maybe a guy they try to move in a trade for someone...

Livingston - I think he could see time at the majors if Arroyo is dealt...

Jukich - He continues to get guys out, put up k numbers...Another not sure where he fits...

Hillenbrant/Lotzkar - Are guys that are young, but big time stuff...They will factor in probably 2011 or so...

RP

Belisle/Coffey - Not sure where to put these two...If they feel that Roenicke, McBeth, Herrera, and Fisher will be ok at the major league level maybe they cut ties with these 2...

Roenicke - later this year...I think he will be there to stay...

McBeth - Putting up great numbers as of late...Didn't throw horrible last season, maybe late this season, but I have him behind Roenicke...

Herrera - Could be called up at some point again this season...

Fisher - Maybe early next season or late next season...

Manuel - Not real sure, but his numbers are very hard to ignore...

Watson - Struggled this season in Chattanooga...If he turns it around he might get a look late next season or early 2010...

Viola - Struggled this season, but he has some good stuff...Maybe next year at some point...

Stewart - Could be ready early next season or late next season...Great stuff...

TRF
07-06-2008, 11:35 PM
SS at the major league level needs to be addressed. The person for the job is Phillips. He'd be a plus defender there. Let Kepp and Rosales fight for the 2B job. Janish likely at AAA unless AGon can't go next year either. 1B is Votto's IMO. Alonso MAY become the better hitter, but he isn't signed yet.

IF Dunn leaves, and If this is Jr.'s last year as a Red, we better hope someone at AAA/AA is ready (Dorn, Cumberland, Henry Rosales or even Frazier) or it will be a loooong year. And I haven't forgotten 3B. that belongs to EE. He's more than fine there.

I worry a bit about the rotation. Harang may finally be showing signs of overwork. Arroyo was never more than a good #3 and seems to be a #4 now. Volquez/Cueto are a good young tandem. Who will step up and be the 5th starter? The Reds need their #5 guy to pitch like a #3. Bailey, Thompson, Jukich and LeCure seem to be the top 4, but watch out for Travis Wood.

As for the catching situation, I think Mes is the real deal, but he's at least 3 years away. Help is needed sooner than that.

Mario-Rijo
07-07-2008, 02:37 AM
It's really too hard to tell for many reasons. But i'd guess you are fairly close with most of your predictions. One thing I might disagree with is that you said Cumberland was more athletic than Henry but I don't think so. Henry is probably more likely a CF than Cumberland based solely on speed/quickness. Cumberland I think may have the better arm and can play CF but wouldn't be above avg.

mth123
07-07-2008, 05:41 AM
The Major league team has to decide some things first IMO. IMO you build a contender with a front, middle, back theory. The front of the rotation, the middle of the line-up and the back of the bullpen. If this team keeps Dunn and Arroyo around, it seems to have set its course for all the major pieces. This is a little lengthy, but here goes:

Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo are pretty effective and promising as a front of the rotation, I'd say. The team needs a number 5 starter (Fogg should be dealt as soon as a decent offer comes and I think one will as teams look to fill holes for the 2nd half) and, IMO, no internal candidates will be ready for opening day 2009. If Arroyo goes, I hope the team gets a candidate or two back because I think the options are thin as far as 2009 goes and getting two guys from the current group is not realistic. Thompson and Bailey are keepers (but obtainable at the right price) IMO and could arrive at some point but the team should assume neither will be ready in 2009 and go get a vet. Jukich has been my sleeper but he's starting to struggle and could wind-up as this year's Carlos Fisher. I wouldn't even entertain the thought of him helping in 2009. If he does its a nice problem to have. Maloney is kind of a wild card. He and Livingston are probably the next two in line, but I'm not high on either one. Maloney would be the first name I mention in a deal to other teams looking for nearly ready starting pitching. Wood is a little far away and unless some team is enamored with him and willing to give the Reds a nice return, he's strictly a future guy. Lecure should probably be moved to AAA soon to try and get a better read on him. He could be a dark horse for a regular spot in 2009, but the team needs to find out more IMO by having him face more experienced AAA types. He'd certainly be available, but I'm not sure he has the market value to consider him as trade bait.

The middle of the line-up looks pretty solid as well with Bruce, Dunn, Votto, Phillips and EdE. The team needs help at catcher, another option at SS and a legtimate alternative in CF. I like Hairston and Keppinger ok, but really don't think the Reds should go into 2009 with both guys penciled in as every day players, maybe one is ok but I'd be looking for help at SS and CF anyway. Gonzalez may be the SS alternative simply because the Reds can't move him until he's been on the field for a while. Cumberland has an outside shot at being ready, but I still would like to see success at AAA before thinking so. He could simply be this year's Rosales. Henry is in the same boat as Cumberland, but with less ability to play CF is less attractive IMO. Frazier is a wildcard who may be a 3B or a LF in the big leagues depending on what the team does with Dunn. If the team keeps Dunn, I stick Frazier on 3B the rest of the year and look to move EdE to bring back some help. IF Dunn is as good as gone, then Frazier should probably start playing LF on a daily basis. Either way Frazier is a keeper (and the team's new reigning number 1 prospect IMO) and should only be dealt in a deal that solves some problems long-term. Alonso should be signed and started directly in AA with any success at all warranting a September look in the big leagues. If the Votto to LF, Alonso to 1B idea is a real option, then the team needs to find out if Alonso can be an option as soon as next season. Dickerson looks like another Patterson to me. If the team can find a taker for Corey, Dickerson can get a look, but I wouldn't include him in any plans. Freel should be shopped as soon as he's healthy with salary relief for 2009 the primary goal. Hopper should be shopped in spring, but is ok as a 25th man spare part (though I'm not sure Dusty wouldn't expand his role more than is warranted). Dorn, Janish, Valaika, Turner, Castro, Heisey and Guttierrez are all guys to move for major league help. I'd probably try to keep Soto and Cozart but would deal them if teams insist on them in order to get the right piece. Stubbs is a guy who could probably help down the road, but he'd definitely be some one I'd dangle on the market. I'd probably resist any offers for Mesoraco at this point unless a young major league ready catcher is obtained to make him expendable.

The Back of the Bullpen looks like its in pretty good shape with Cordero, Burton and even Bray as pieces to build around. I think Roenicke is a legit arm that should be able to help later this year and next year. Herrera could be a change of pace, extra lefty staff filler, but I'm not high on him as a main man. Weathers and Affeldt should be aggressively marketed on the trade front and Majewski should probably be shopped as well. I wouldn't mind seeing Mike Lincoln brought back in 2009. Coffey and Belisle need to be moved to different organizations. Belisle is arb eligible and making $1.2 Million in 2008. He'll surely be non-tendered if the Reds don't deal him. Fisher, Viola, and McBeth all look like arms for the mix but none are to be counted on. McBeth should probably get a look this year after the major league purge. Tyler Pelland and Ramon Ramirez have probably fallen too far from grace and realistically should no longer be taking up spots on the 40 man roster. I doubt they'll be back in the organization in 2009 so they can be added as filler in any deal. Robert Manual might be a sleeper for the pen. Stewart, Watson. Lutz, Young, etc. are all guys for the future. Stewart might be a quick mover that can help in 2009 and as a draftee can't be traded until after next year's draft. The others should all be available though I can't imagine a scenario where their inclusion gets the Reds much value back.

camisadelgolf
07-07-2008, 06:44 AM
Here's how I project the squads to look through 2012. This is without re-signing free agents, waivers, trades, free agents, etc. As you'll see, I've decided to pay the buyouts for Bronson Arroyo, Francisco Cordero, and Brandon Phillips. In all reality, before paying their buyouts, I would trade them to strengthen positions of higher need. What are those positions of need?

HIGH PRIORITY
1. a starting catcher until Devin Mesoraco is ready

2. outfield depth, particularly center field, until Drew Stubbs, Todd Frazier, and/or Yonder Alonso are ready

MEDIUM PRIORITY
3. bench depth: Rosales, although improving, may not be able to handle MLB pitching; Janish is all glove and no bat; Hopper can make good contact but not much else; Cumberland hasn't even been to AAA yet; Dickerson is projected to have big troubles against more advanced pitching; etc.

4. another starting pitcher as insurance for Homer Bailey and Daryl Thompson

LOW PRIORITY
5. another reliever through 2010 as insurance for Marcus McBeth, Matt Belisle, and Todd Coffey, who can't be counted on


Pos 2009 2010 2011 2012
C 3.500 Dave Ross 0.400 Ryan Hanigan 0.400 Ryan Hanigan 0.400 Devin Mesoraco
1B 0.400 Joey Votto 0.400 Joey Votto 7.000 Joey Votto 0.400 Yonder Alonso
2B 4.750 Brandon Phillips 6.750 Brandon Phillips 11.000 Brandon Phillips 0.400 Chris Valaika
3B 0.400 Jeff Keppinger 3.900 Edwin Encarnacion 6.000 Edwin Encarnacion 0.400 Todd Frazier
SS 5.375 Alex Gonzalez 2.750 Jeff Keppinger 4.050 Jeff Keppinger 5.000 Jeff Keppinger
LF 2.000 Edwin Encarnacion 0.400 Danny Dorn 0.400 Todd Frazier 9.000 Joey Votto
CF 4.000 Ryan Freel 0.400 Shaun Cumberland 0.400 Drew Stubbs 0.400 Drew Stubbs
RF 0.400 Jay Bruce 0.400 Jay Bruce 0.400 Jay Bruce 9.000 Jay Bruce
C 0.400 Craig Tatum 0.400 Craig Tatum 0.400 Craig Tatum 1.300 Craig Tatum
IF 0.400 Adam Rosales 0.400 Adam Rosales 0.400 Adam Rosales 0.400 Justin Turner
IF 0.400 Paul Janish 0.400 Paul Janish 0.400 Paul Janish 0.400 Zack Cozart
OF 0.400 Norris Hopper 0.800 Norris Hopper 0.400 Chris Heisey 0.400 Chris Heisey
OF 0.400 Shaun Cumberland 0.400 Chris Dickerson 0.400 Danny Dorn 0.400 Danny Dorn
SP 0.400 Edinson Volquez 0.400 Edinson Volquez 8.000 Edinson Volquez 11.000 Edinson Volquez
SP 11.000 Aaron Harang 12.500 Aaron Harang 13.000 Aaron Harang 7.000 Johnny Cueto
SP 0.400 Johnny Cueto 0.400 Johnny Cueto 5.000 Johnny Cueto 4.000 Homer Bailey
SP 9.500 Bronson Arroyo 11.000 Bronson Arroyo 0.400 Daryl Thompson 0.400 Daryl Thompson
SP 0.400 Homer Bailey 0.400 Homer Bailey 0.400 Homer Bailey 0.400 Matt Maloney
RP 12.000 Francisco Cordero 12.000 Francisco Cordero 12.000 Francisco Cordero 0.400 Josh Roenicke
RP 0.400 Jared Burton 3.000 Jared Burton 3.500 Jared Burton 4.000 Jared Burton
RP 0.400 Bill Bray 2.000 Bill Bray 2.500 Bill Bray 3.000 Bill Bray
RP 0.400 Marcus McBeth 0.400 Marcus McBeth 0.400 Sean Watson 0.400 Zach Stewart
RP 0.800 Todd Coffey 0.400 Danny Herrera 0.400 Danny Herrera 2.000 Danny Herrera
RP 0.975 Gary Majewski 0.400 Josh Roenicke 0.400 Josh Roenicke 0.400 Sean Watson
RP 1.100 Matt Belisle 0.400 Daryl Thompson 0.400 Matt Maloney 0.400 Kyle Lotzkar
60.600 61.100 78.050 61.300
BO 0.100 Juan Castro 2.000 Bronson Arroyo 1.000 Francisco Cordero
BO 4.000 Ken Griffey, Jr. 1.000 Brandon Phillips
BO 0.500 Mike Stanton
65.200 61.100 80.050 63.300

Kc61
07-07-2008, 10:44 AM
The Reds have a lot of quantity in the minor leagues, but few potential star players. It's time for them to package a number of prospects and make some trades for better veterans.

The major league team is 12th in runs scored and 12th in ERA. The Reds need to add major players, not just fringe moves around the edges.

The Reds starting lineup has four players with sub-.250 batting averages and while Dunn may compensate with his power, the others don't. The only three major league position starters who look like long-term keepers to me are Votto, Bruce and Phillips. The pitching is in better shape right now with a few good, young arms but pitching is inherently fragile and teams always need to bolster it.

If I were GM I would spend big bucks and trade packages of players to add a couple of key veteran position players. I'd look for a top righty hitter for the middle of the lineup. And I'd look for a top notch catcher, if one is around. That doesn't fill all the holes but it's a good start.

Expecting Cumberland or Thompson or Valaika to change the fortunes of this team is to forget that the team is below average in every major department, hitting, pitching, defense. Bold action would be nice.

UK Reds Fan
07-07-2008, 12:02 PM
Catcher
Hannigan as backup is fine and we need to package Ross/Valentin money to pay 2-3 years for a legit starter

1B
I'm happy with just keeping Votto there till we figure out how long Alonso is going to take.

2B
I'm fine with Phillips there

SS
I guess we'll go with Kepp/AGon for 1 more year. I can't get final thought as to whether Valiaka can be a solid defensive player or not at SS. Janish...AAAA...but not a MLB SS at all.

3B
1 more year of EdE and let him go. Too many soild prospects in Frazier, Soto and Waring/Francisco to tie up any money in EdE.

CF
I'm fine with Freel/Cumberland platoon for 1 more year and then hopefully Stubbs can be ready in 2010 for platoon duty if not take the spot.

RF
Bruce..forget about the rest

LF
Here is the debate. I'm fine with letting Dunn walk if the money is over 10Mil. But if he walks, is it Votto to LF with Alonso at 1B? Is it Frazier moving to the outfield? I don't think anyone knows.

SP
I'd hope to deal Arroyo as he is averagish, but salary is going to trend towards greater than average down the road.

Harang
Volquez
Cueto
Pay for #4 spot or #3 spot
Thompson/Bailey/Maloney

BP
Cordero
Burton
Bray

Those 3 are very good

After that we have options to look at or can pay.

All in all, we have some payflex with depth coming from our minor league kids and hopefully the GM will stop paying more for same/worse performance from guys like Stanton/Patterson/Freel/Ross/Valentin/Castro/etc... Down the road as a guy like EdE, Keppinger, Bray, etc.start getting more expensive, instead of keeping them, we just move to a cheaper in house option.

Degenerate39
07-07-2008, 12:13 PM
Catcher
Hannigan as backup is fine and we need to package Ross/Valentin money to pay 2-3 years for a legit starter

1B
I'm happy with just keeping Votto there till we figure out how long Alonso is going to take.

2B
I'm fine with Phillips there

SS
I guess we'll go with Kepp/AGon for 1 more year. I can't get final thought as to whether Valiaka can be a solid defensive player or not at SS. Janish...AAAA...but not a MLB SS at all.

3B
1 more year of EdE and let him go. Too many soild prospects in Frazier, Soto and Waring/Francisco to tie up any money in EdE.

CF
I'm fine with Freel/Cumberland platoon for 1 more year and then hopefully Stubbs can be ready in 2010 for platoon duty if not take the spot.

RF
Stubbs..forget about the rest

LF
Here is the debate. I'm fine with letting Dunn walk if the money is over 10Mil. But if he walks, is it Votto to LF with Alonso at 1B? Is it Frazier moving to the outfield? I don't think anyone knows.

SP
I'd hope to deal Arroyo as he is averagish, but salary is going to trend towards greater than average down the road.

Harang
Volquez
Cueto
Pay for #4 spot or #3 spot
Thompson/Bailey/Maloney

BP
Cordero
Burton
Bray

Those 3 are very good

After that we have options to look at or can pay.

All in all, we have some payflex with depth coming from our minor league kids and hopefully the GM will stop paying more for same/worse performance from guys like Stanton/Patterson/Freel/Ross/Valentin/Castro/etc... Down the road as a guy like EdE, Keppinger, Bray, etc.start getting more expensive, instead of keeping them, we just move to a cheaper in house option.

What happened to Bruce?

UK Reds Fan
07-07-2008, 12:15 PM
Put the wrong 1st round draft pick in RF...Bruce has been edited back into RF.

RED VAN HOT
07-07-2008, 06:43 PM
As a west coast guy I only know what I can conclude from the statistics and the board. That said, I think Heisey tends to be under valued in most discussions. 17 steals in 18 attempts is impressive. Also, he has 11 outfield assists. I suspect he would have seen more CF if he hadn't spent most of his career on the same teams as Stubbs. He has leaned to hit at every stop. This year, walks up and K's down, also a good sign. He hits LH very well. I see him as a 4th OF getting starts against LHP, pinch hitting and running, and providing a defensive replacement....sorta like a Ryan Freel with good judgment.

We also need to mention Ramon Geronimo. I can't figure out what this guy has to do to see the next level.

Will M
07-07-2008, 09:43 PM
The Major league team has to decide some things first IMO. IMO you build a contender with a front, middle, back theory. The front of the rotation, the middle of the line-up and the back of the bullpen. If this team keeps Dunn and Arroyo around, it seems to have set its course for all the major pieces. This is a little lengthy, but here goes:

Harang, Volquez, Cueto, Arroyo are pretty effective and promising as a front of the rotation, I'd say. The team needs a number 5 starter (Fogg should be dealt as soon as a decent offer comes and I think one will as teams look to fill holes for the 2nd half) and, IMO, no internal candidates will be ready for opening day 2009. If Arroyo goes, I hope the team gets a candidate or two back because I think the options are thin as far as 2009 goes and getting two guys from the current group is not realistic. Thompson and Bailey are keepers (but obtainable at the right price) IMO and could arrive at some point but the team should assume neither will be ready in 2009 and go get a vet. Jukich has been my sleeper but he's starting to struggle and could wind-up as this year's Carlos Fisher. I wouldn't even entertain the thought of him helping in 2009. If he does its a nice problem to have. Maloney is kind of a wild card. He and Livingston are probably the next two in line, but I'm not high on either one. Maloney would be the first name I mention in a deal to other teams looking for nearly ready starting pitching. Wood is a little far away and unless some team is enamored with him and willing to give the Reds a nice return, he's strictly a future guy. Lecure should probably be moved to AAA soon to try and get a better read on him. He could be a dark horse for a regular spot in 2009, but the team needs to find out more IMO by having him face more experienced AAA types. He'd certainly be available, but I'm not sure he has the market value to consider him as trade bait.

The middle of the line-up looks pretty solid as well with Bruce, Dunn, Votto, Phillips and EdE. The team needs help at catcher, another option at SS and a legtimate alternative in CF. I like Hairston and Keppinger ok, but really don't think the Reds should go into 2009 with both guys penciled in as every day players, maybe one is ok but I'd be looking for help at SS and CF anyway. Gonzalez may be the SS alternative simply because the Reds can't move him until he's been on the field for a while. Cumberland has an outside shot at being ready, but I still would like to see success at AAA before thinking so. He could simply be this year's Rosales. Henry is in the same boat as Cumberland, but with less ability to play CF is less attractive IMO. Frazier is a wildcard who may be a 3B or a LF in the big leagues depending on what the team does with Dunn. If the team keeps Dunn, I stick Frazier on 3B the rest of the year and look to move EdE to bring back some help. IF Dunn is as good as gone, then Frazier should probably start playing LF on a daily basis. Either way Frazier is a keeper (and the team's new reigning number 1 prospect IMO) and should only be dealt in a deal that solves some problems long-term. Alonso should be signed and started directly in AA with any success at all warranting a September look in the big leagues. If the Votto to LF, Alonso to 1B idea is a real option, then the team needs to find out if Alonso can be an option as soon as next season. Dickerson looks like another Patterson to me. If the team can find a taker for Corey, Dickerson can get a look, but I wouldn't include him in any plans. Freel should be shopped as soon as he's healthy with salary relief for 2009 the primary goal. Hopper should be shopped in spring, but is ok as a 25th man spare part (though I'm not sure Dusty wouldn't expand his role more than is warranted). Dorn, Janish, Valaika, Turner, Castro, Heisey and Guttierrez are all guys to move for major league help. I'd probably try to keep Soto and Cozart but would deal them if teams insist on them in order to get the right piece. Stubbs is a guy who could probably help down the road, but he'd definitely be some one I'd dangle on the market. I'd probably resist any offers for Mesoraco at this point unless a young major league ready catcher is obtained to make him expendable.

The Back of the Bullpen looks like its in pretty good shape with Cordero, Burton and even Bray as pieces to build around. I think Roenicke is a legit arm that should be able to help later this year and next year. Herrera could be a change of pace, extra lefty staff filler, but I'm not high on him as a main man. Weathers and Affeldt should be aggressively marketed on the trade front and Majewski should probably be shopped as well. I wouldn't mind seeing Mike Lincoln brought back in 2009. Coffey and Belisle need to be moved to different organizations. Belisle is arb eligible and making $1.2 Million in 2008. He'll surely be non-tendered if the Reds don't deal him. Fisher, Viola, and McBeth all look like arms for the mix but none are to be counted on. McBeth should probably get a look this year after the major league purge. Tyler Pelland and Ramon Ramirez have probably fallen too far from grace and realistically should no longer be taking up spots on the 40 man roster. I doubt they'll be back in the organization in 2009 so they can be added as filler in any deal. Robert Manual might be a sleeper for the pen. Stewart, Watson. Lutz, Young, etc. are all guys for the future. Stewart might be a quick mover that can help in 2009 and as a draftee can't be traded until after next year's draft. The others should all be available though I can't imagine a scenario where their inclusion gets the Reds much value back.


1. Dunn HAS to stay or the team may have to be rebuilt

2. I agree with you on Harang, Volquez, Cueto & Arroyo.
Arroyo has been an enigma this year but if he can give us 200 IP and a sub 4.5 ERA he would be the best 4th starter in the league.
This is the best 1-2-3-4 SP the Reds have had in a long long time.

3. You say that you think no internal candidates will be ready for opening day 2009. I suspect for the 2009 team to be good one of them is going to have to be. I would think the Reds would get a guy like Fogg to compete in spring training with Thompson, Bailey & Maloney for the 5th spot.
Since we have black holes at catcher and CF the 5th starter slot may take a back seat to these issues.

4. I agree that the team needs help at catcher and a legtimate alternative in CF. I also like Hairston and Keppinger but agree that the Reds should not go into 2009 with both guys penciled in as every day players.
Kep could be the SS with Gonzo as the backup.
Hairston ( if he keeps playing well ) could be resigned and play CF vs LHP and fill in as a utility guy vs RHP.
Neither needs to play 162 games. Little guys wear down.

5. "Gonzalez may be the SS alternative simply because the Reds can't move him until he's been on the field for a while." yep. pretty untradable right now

6. I suspect Dickerson is a decent 4th/5th OF but not a starter

&. "Freel should be shopped as soon as he's healthy with salary relief for 2009 the primary goal." yep. Hairston >>> Freel

7. I would like to see Weathers traded and Majik dumped. Roenicke & Herrera take their places. Lets see what they can do this year vs big league hiiters so we have some idea what to expect in 2009.

8. Affeldt could come back for a one year deal at the right price.
I also wouldn't mind seeing Mike Lincoln brought back in 2009.

9. "Coffey and Belisle need to be moved to different organizations." yep.

10. IMO the Reds have big holes at catcher & centerfield. They have no immediate help here in AA/AAA. Most of the talent we do have is below AAA so counting on them for April 2009 is a stretch.

11. I'd move anyone in the minors in the right deal. We have no more 'untouchables'.

Benihana
07-10-2008, 09:14 PM
As someone else pointed out, it's really hard to project a path for a lot of these guys without planning the major league roster first. However, I will attempt to project the path for those that I feel have more than a decent chance to be impact major leaguers as if I were the director of player development.

First, as I mentioned in another thread, I'd be targeting a couple guys at the major league level including Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, Taylor Teagarden, and a young SS (Lu, Brignac, Aybar to name a few). In order to obtain some/any of these guys, I would dangle some of the following players as bait: Bailey, Valaika, Stubbs, Maloney, and Francisco. I chose these players because while they do have value as prospects, they have questions surrounding their ability to contribute to the Reds at the major league level for a variety of reasons. Furthermore, it would allow the Reds to hang on to their top three prospects (Alonso, Thompson, and Frazier.) That said, I will include them in my projections just in case.

Without further ado, here would be projection path for the Reds' top minor leaguers through the 2010 season:


C

Devin Mesoraco is the only player in the system that is relevant at this point. I would like to see Devin finish out the year in Dayton, and begin next season in Sarasota. With a young catcher being one of the major league team's major needs, I see no reason to rush Mesoraco's development. I don't forsee him contributing to the major league team until 2011 at the earliest.

1B

Assuming he is signed by the end of the month, I would let Alonso play out the last month of the season in Sarasota. Assuming he holds his own there, I would start him in Chattanooga next year, and hope that he can force his way to Louisville by midsummer. If all goes as planned, he could be ready to suit up in Cincy by Opening Day 2010. I also wouldn't be surprised, particularly if the Reds acquire an OF like Kemp, Bay, or even re-sign Dunn, to see Alonso as a centerpiece for a trade a la Matt LaPorta for Milwaukee.

Adam Rosales, who's bat has reawakened in the last month, should take Javy Valentin's place on the Reds as soon as possible, as the RH-hitting option off the bench that can play several infield positions.

2B/SS

Paul Janish should be with the big club as a defensive replacement as soon as a corresponding move allows. He plays great defense, and is a nice insurance policy to have in an organization devoid of true shortstops.

If he's not traded, Chris Valaika should begin next season in Louisville, and hopefully play his way to Cincinnati by the beginning of the Summer. He could fill a nice utility role with the big club, particularly if Hairston or Keppinger is no longer with the team. If he proves he can hit at the big league level, that might allow the Reds to revisit their thinking on switching Brandon Phillips to SS, and playing Valaika at 2B. Furthermore, Valaika may even be able to stick at SS, depending on how much he can hit.

Justin Turner should also begin next season in Louisville, and may be looking at a September '09 callup to the big club if he can continue to perform the way he has his entire minor league career. However, he doesn't project to be anything more than a big league backup at 2B, or a slightly better hitting, lesser fielding Janish.

Zach Cozart has impressed with the bat in Dayton, and his fielding has never been in question. Hopefully he can continue to hit in Sarasota and maybe even Chattanooga next year. Expect him in Louisville in 2010, and a midseason callup at that point may not be out of the question (like Janish this year.)

3B

Juan Francisco has done nothing but hit and hit for power his entire professional career. However his plate discipline remains quite worrisome. I would like to see the Reds try him in RF, especially with his cannon arm and suspect fielding. That way, he could serve as an insurance policy in case the Reds don't acquire a CF and decide to leave Bruce there for the forseeable future. I would be offering him in most packages right now, yet if the trade deadline passes and he's still in Chattanooga, I would begin giving him some starts in RF. He should start next year in Louisville, and assuming his fielding develops, might also be looking at a September '09 callup.

Todd Frazier remains the Reds best hitting prospect, but it would also be nice to find him a permanent position. I would continue playing him at 3B in Sarasota, but promote him to Chattanooga August 1, corresponding with Francisco's move to RF. As I said in another thread, I think decision time on Encarnaicon will be this time next season, and at that point, it will be time to decide whether Frazier is a 3B, LF, or 1B. Depending on what happens with the major league moves, Frazier should end up at one of those three positions, playing full time in Cincinnati by Opening Day 2010. In the meantime he should start next year at Chattanooga, but look for a quick promotion to Louisville if he continues to mash.

Brandon Waring may be the odd man out here, but he needs to develop his game if he is going to factor into any kind of long term plans. While he has shown some great power, there isn't much else in his game to get terribly excited about. I would make a decision on what's best for Neftali Soto before deciding what to do with Waring. Either way, he should start next year in Sarasota.

Neftali Soto is a wildcard here, as he's done nothing but rake since being drafted in the third round last year. I would like to see if he could play 2B or CF, but I'm not sure if he could handle it. Regardless, the Reds need to determine his future position (most likely 3B or LF) and entrench him there, because I think that he is going to be a special player to watch over the next few years. Look for Soto to play out the rest of this season in Dayton, and begin next year in Sarasota. I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish out 2009 in Chattanooga, however, and begin 2010 in Louisville.

OF

While any combination of Soto, Frazier, Francisco, and even Joey Votto could end up in the OF along with Jay Bruce, let's look at the natural outfielders in the system worth watching.

I would immediately promote all three of the AA outfielders to AAA, (Cumberland has already been promoted) and work a four man rotation along with Chris Dickerson. Unfortunately, I don't think there is much of a future for Chris Dickerson despite his fielding prowess, and I'm afraid the Reds agree. His bat is just too weak- I think at best we'd be looking at another Corey Patterson. I'd let these outfielders play out the rest of the year in Louisville, and let them compete for Corey Patterson's roster spot (as the 5th OF) come next year. The other three can remain in Louisville for 2009, and be called upon as neccessary.

Drew Stubbs should play out the remainder of the year in Chattanooga. I would like to see him packaged in a trade, but unfortunately don't know how much value he really has. I'd start him in Chattanooga next year, which will serve as his make or break season. Regardless, I wouldn't count on him to be a huge factor in the Reds' plans unless he really starts to turn it around, and even then you're looking at mid-2010.

Juan Duran and (hopefully) Yorman Roderiguez should finish the year in the DSL and VSL respectively. Hopefully we'll see them in Billings next season, and maybe they can even push their way to Dayton by the end of 2009. Regardless, it goes without saying that neither can be counted on to contribute to the big club until after the 2010 season.

SP

Daryl Thompson should most likely pitch out the rest of this season in Louisville, and work on getting ready to compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training. Whether Arroyo stays or someone like Derek Lowe is brought in to be the #4, my money is on Daryl Thompson holding down the #5 spot in the rotation for next year, with Harang, Volquez and Cueto as the three big guns.

We'll see how Homer Bailey does in his next two spot starts with the big club, but I won't be holding my breath. He is another player who could benefit greatly from a change of scenery, and I would be shopping him heavily (particularly for guys like Jason Bay, Matt Kemp, and/or Taylor Teagarden.) Regardless, I don't think you can rely on Bailey to hold down a rotation spot anytime in the near future. Hopefully he can change that.

I also wouldn't mind including Matt Maloney in a trade package in order tSmio benefit the big club. Assuming he stays, I would give Maloney a shot with the big club, particularly if Harang will be out for any extended period of time. However I don't forsee him as a big piece of the future rotation due to projectability concerns.

I would promote Ben Jukich to AAA immediately, and let him pitch out the remainder of the season there. He would be a good candidate for a spot starter for next season, particularly if Maloney is traded (and Fogg is gone.)

I would let LeCure continue to rebound in Chattanooga, and start him in Louisville next year. However it's doubtful that he'll ever be a serious factor at the major league level.

Travis Wood has struggled recently in Chattanooga, but I would let him pitch through it. Leave him in Chattanooga for the rest of the season, and probably start him there next year as well. He should start gaining major league relevancy sometime in 2010, as he is the best lefthanded arm currently in the minor league system.

I would start Jordan Smith in Chattanooga next year along with Travis Wood, and see how he responds. However he's probably not looking at a major league callup until late in the 2010 season as well, barring a sudden surge.

Finally, Kyle Lotzkar and Josh Ravin are the prize arms in Dayton, and I'd start both of them in Sarasota next season, and hopefully one (or both) of them can push their way to Chattanooga by midseason '09. Scott Carroll could also be in the mix there.

Evan Hildenbrant and Clayton Shunick should battle for the title of ace in Dayton next season.

That would leave the top guys beginning next season at each level as follows:
Louisville: Maloney/Jukich, LeCure
Chattanooga: Wood, Smith
Sarasota: Lotzkar, Ravin, Carroll
Dayton: Hildenbrant, Shunick

RP

Josh Roenicke should be called up to the big club immediately. Trade Weathers, DFA Majewski, or take your pick with the others. After Coco, Burton and Bray, Roenicke might be the best reliever in the system right now.

Robert Manuel could benefit from an immediate promotion to Louisville, as well. He should compete for a bullpen position with the big club in Spring Training.

Zach Stewart should be in Sarasota by next week. Assuming he continues to dazzle, he should start next year in Chattanooga, and may even be in Cincinnati before the end of the '09 season.