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BigRed07
07-08-2008, 11:18 PM
Drew Stubbs is headed to Chattanooga. He should be there tomorrow.

Joseph
07-08-2008, 11:23 PM
Very interesting news indeed.

SMcGavin
07-08-2008, 11:28 PM
Looking forward to seeing what he can do. Thanks for the update.

Blitz Dorsey
07-09-2008, 12:07 AM
Good to hear. Will be very interesting to see how he finishes up the season.

mbgrayson
07-09-2008, 12:46 AM
I wish Drew all the luck in the world in AA.

His final High A stat line (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%20Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211)at Sarasota is fairly close to his final line at Dayton last year:

1. 2006 Billings: .252/.368/.400 for an OPS of .768 w/ 6 HR and 19 SB in 210 ABs
2. 2007 Dayton: .270/.364/.421 for an OPS of .785 w/ 12 HR and 23 SB in 497 ABs
3. 2008 Sarasota: .261/.366/.406 for an OPS of .772 w/ 5 HRs and 27 SB in 202 ABs

This is amazing consistency really. I previously wonderd about his home/road splits. Those have moved fairly close together in the last month, and there is only a 34 point differential in batting avarerage now.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2008, 12:48 AM
That's good to hear. Hopefully he can hit better and show more power.

HokieRed
07-09-2008, 12:51 AM
Glad to see it. Hope it means Henry to Louisville.

AmarilloRed
07-09-2008, 12:56 AM
The rest of the year in Chattanooga, most of 2009 in Louisville, and a September 2009 callup to the Reds. It is a tall order, but I hope Stubbs is up to the challenge.

mth123
07-09-2008, 03:10 AM
Good news. Success at Chatt will drive his value up. If not, well at least we can stop waiting I guess. I wonder if another move is on the way. Dorn, Henry, Cumberland and Stubbs make quite a crowd. Dorn could play 1B, but Gutierrez needs to play. Henry is hot. Dickerson is kind of hot. Maybe a move on the major league team (Corey????) and a series of promotions.

crazyredfan40
07-09-2008, 05:37 AM
Now it is time to see how much the FSL was holding his power numbers down...

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 08:41 AM
Could be a showcase.

princeton
07-09-2008, 08:50 AM
Could be a showcase.

that's ridiculous, of course.

if Stubbs plays well enough to interest a team in need of a young RHHing CFer, then we'll keep him because that team is us.

Grande Donkey
07-09-2008, 09:44 AM
I'm surprised that they promoted Cumberland before he got to play in the AA All-Star game. I was told that was the plan a week or two ago.

TRF
07-09-2008, 10:03 AM
I agree with princeton's premise of challenge thy hitters, but he was pretty damn challenged in Sarasota and came up wanting.

A needed promotion based on who he is and not what he's done.

TRF
07-09-2008, 10:06 AM
I wish Drew all the luck in the world in AA.

His final High A stat line (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Drew%20Stubbs&pos=OF&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453211)at Sarasota is fairly close to his final line at Dayton last year:

1. 2006 Billings: .252/.368/.400 for an OPS of .768 w/ 6 HR and 19 SB in 210 ABs
2. 2007 Dayton: .270/.364/.421 for an OPS of .785 w/ 12 HR and 23 SB in 497 ABs
3. 2008 Sarasota: .261/.366/.406 for an OPS of .772 w/ 5 HRs and 27 SB in 202 ABs

This is amazing consistency really. I previously wonderd about his home/road splits. Those have moved fairly close together in the last month, and there is only a 34 point differential in batting avarerage now.

Past April of this year, his OPS is anemic, below .700. His primary weapon, OBP was merely adequate. He had a hot 5 days in July, just like he did in June.

He's been awful for over 2 months now.

Grande Donkey
07-09-2008, 10:12 AM
Didn't see this posted anywhere. Stubbs was named FSL player of the week last week.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 10:16 AM
May have been the plan all along -- promote to Chattanooga midyear if head is above water in Sarasota.

Biggest challenge for Stubbs so far, and it should give some good insight into his true status as a prospect.

SMcGavin
07-09-2008, 10:34 AM
Past April of this year, his OPS is anemic, below .700. His primary weapon, OBP was merely adequate. He had a hot 5 days in July, just like he did in June.

He's been awful for over 2 months now.

So if you take out his good months, and then his good weeks, he's awful. OK. His 2008 OPS is .772, that's not good and it's not awful, it's mediocre.

And princeton is right, why in the world would we trade Stubbs if he shows anything at all in AA. People were thrilled last week when it was rumored that the Reds would acquire a good defensive CF with a career .733 OPS.

TheBigLebowski
07-09-2008, 10:35 AM
I think this is a bit of a crap-or-get-off-the-pot move for Drew. If he flubs around at Chattanooga we'll know we've got nothing. If, miraculously, he answers the bell and hits, maybe we can expect something out of Drew.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2008, 10:38 AM
I'm surprised that they promoted Cumberland before he got to play in the AA All-Star game. I was told that was the plan a week or two ago.

Cumberland has a been in a big slump so far in July which has dropped his OPS from over .900 to .836. Hopefully he can bounce back and hit well in Louisville.

RedsManRick
07-09-2008, 10:38 AM
I'm not thrilled with his performance, but a .772 OPS from a CF in a tough park isn't horrible. Frankly, I'm glad he's out of there either way. We need to see what he can do against more advanced pitching in a more neutral environment. It should be interesting.

Kc61
07-09-2008, 12:23 PM
Guessing that we'll see Dickerson either with the Reds or in a trade very soon.
Dickerson has been hitting better at AAA and it's time for him to try his hand at the major leagues. Don't see much more reason for him to stay in the minor leagues.

I'm inferring this from the advancement of Cumberland. Sean Henry seems readier for AAA at bat, he's much hotter, 60 points higher in OPS, Cumberland has slumped of late. I think, perhaps, Cumberland's ability to play centerfield (Dickerson's position) is the reason he was promoted.

All this is speculation on my part.

Superdude
07-09-2008, 12:34 PM
This should be interesting. His prospect status could shoot all over the place depending on what he does in Chattanooga.

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 12:43 PM
Just keep doing what you were doing Drew and things will be fine.

14.2% walk rate
22.8% strikeout rate
27% line drive rate

Do those in AA, and your numbers will pile up.

TRF
07-09-2008, 01:02 PM
So if you take out his good months, and then his good weeks, he's awful. OK. His 2008 OPS is .772, that's not good and it's not awful, it's mediocre.

And princeton is right, why in the world would we trade Stubbs if he shows anything at all in AA. People were thrilled last week when it was rumored that the Reds would acquire a good defensive CF with a career .733 OPS.

you are looking at a number and not the context. He's sucked since the beginning of May, with one good week in June and 5 days in July. His overall numbers are skewed by a torrid April. Pitchers adjusted, he didn't.

TRF
07-09-2008, 01:02 PM
Just keep doing what you were doing Drew and things will be fine.

14.2% walk rate
22.8% strikeout rate
27% line drive rate

Do those in AA, and your numbers will pile up.

funny, they didn't "pile up" at Sarasota.

RedsManRick
07-09-2008, 01:03 PM
Past April of this year, his OPS is anemic, below .700. His primary weapon, OBP was merely adequate. He had a hot 5 days in July, just like he did in June.

He's been awful for over 2 months now.

Monthly splits are pretty much meaningless as indicators of talent level -- aka predictors of future performance. It's as true in the minors as it is in the majors. If they've raised some specific concern due to a change in his swing mechanics or the like, that's certainly valid, but they aren't meaningful in and of themselves.

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 01:04 PM
you are looking at a number and not the context. He's sucked since the beginning of May, with one good week in June and 5 days in July. His overall numbers are skewed by a torrid April. Pitchers adjusted, he didn't.

Yeah, his walk rate being over 16% says pitchers adjusted and he didn't.... He has struck out less and walked more since May began while keeping up strong line drive rates. His April was very good, but since then he hasn't changed up of his game (improving walk rates, lowering strikeout rates and maintaining a line drive rate that would still be in the top 4 of the league since May began), the numbers just don't bear it out.

TRF
07-09-2008, 01:04 PM
Monthly splits are pretty much meaningless as indicators of talent level -- aka predictors of future performance. It's as true in the minors as it is in the majors. If they've raised some specific concern due to a change in his swing mechanics or the like, that's certainly valid, but they aren't meaningful in and of themselves.

they aren't meaningless if it is 2 months in a row. that's the formation of a trend. added to his overall body of work, it's a profile.

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 01:06 PM
funny, they didn't "pile up" at Sarasota.

Neither did a lot of guys in the FSL.... but once they left the numbers seemed to show up for a lot of guys who didn't OPS .800 there.

M2
07-09-2008, 01:06 PM
I'd have promoted Stubbs because why not?

He's not impressing anyone where he is. If he can put up the same numbers he has through A ball in AA, then someone might get enthusiastic about his minimalist production. If AA pitchers eat him alive, then the Reds can always claim it was an aggressive promotion and they expected that he'd be in for a rough transition.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 01:10 PM
For the record, I'm predicting his numbers decline.

Hope I'm wrong!

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 01:12 PM
lollipopcurve, great idea for a new thread!

RedsManRick
07-09-2008, 01:19 PM
they aren't meaningless if it is 2 months in a row. that's the formation of a trend. added to his overall body of work, it's a profile.

I'm sorry TRF, but in isolation, two months in a row is still meaningless. The more data we have the better. If it's 3 months in a row, it starts to reach the level of meaningful. And if it's 4 or 5, now you're talking. But 2 is not the point at which we can start to infer meaning. The sample size is still too small.

I agree with your second point though. Add it to your overall body of knowledge. Selectively choosing end points to establish a new baseline is folly. It is extremely unlikely that Stubbs' true ability has changed for the worse over the course of the year. Stubbs isn't the .900+ OPS guy he was in April and he's not the sub .700 OPS guy he was in June. He's the guy who did both and as he accrues at bats is most likely to produce something closer to his season-to-date numbers than any of his monthly breakouts or grouping thereof.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2008, 01:57 PM
A needed promotion based on who he is and not what he's done.

Are you saying he doesn't deserve the promotion, or are you saying others deserved it more? I agree with the latter, but based on his age and what he has done, I feel like he's worthy of a promotion (but wouldn't have been an obvious choice if he were, hypothetically, a 30th round draft choice).

BigRed07
07-09-2008, 02:28 PM
It will nice to see Stubby roming around CF. He will help the Lookouts quite a bit with just his defense alone. The OF was not very good last night and cost them the"W".

camisadelgolf
07-09-2008, 02:39 PM
The question for me becomes, who replaces Stubbs at Sarasota? I like having Perales and Heisey playing every day, but I hate to see Carson Kainer and Yuber Rodriguez get so many at-bats.

My guess is that Todd Frazier becomes the left fielder, with Chris Heisey getting most of the playing time in center. Juan Francisco already has all the playing time at third base, and Logan Parker will be 24 years old soon and should be the every-day first baseman at Sarasota by now.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 02:56 PM
My guess is that Todd Frazier becomes the left fielder, with Chris Heisey getting most of the playing time in center. Juan Francisco already has all the playing time at third base, and Logan Parker will be 24 years old soon and should be the every-day first baseman at Sarasota by now.

Yeah...

Frazier -- LF
Heisey -- CF
Perales -- RF
Francisco -- 3B
Alonso -- 1B

11larkin11
07-09-2008, 03:01 PM
Yeah...

Frazier -- LF
Heisey -- CF
Perales -- RF
Francisco -- 3B
Alonso -- 1B

That would be a pretty fun team to watch. Right now I'm going to focus on the AA team, with Valaika, Henry, Stubbs, Dorn, Turner, Gutierrez, Eymann, Wood, Watson, Manuel, LeCure, Jukich, Fisher, Viola, and Smith. That SHOULD be a good team.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-09-2008, 04:49 PM
Stubbs will put up better numbers.

Henry went from .784 in the FSL to .896 in Chattanooga.
Turner went from .774 to .806
DeJesus has gone from .635 to .829
Eymann has gone from .652 to .771
Gutierrez has gone from .778 to .798

Valaika and Tatum are the only two that have decreased from the FSL (Hi-A) to AA.

Degenerate39
07-09-2008, 05:03 PM
I hope he can make it to Louisville by the end of they year. Start next year out there and get called up to Cincy some time in the middle of the season or in September.

Kc61
07-09-2008, 05:04 PM
I hope he can make it to Louisville by the end of they year. Start next year out there and get called up to Cincy some time in the middle of the season or in September.


Yeah, Reds need some more sub-.800 OPS hitters.

Degenerate39
07-09-2008, 05:06 PM
Yeah, Reds need some more sub-.800 OPS hitters.

I would much rather have Stubbs with the Reds than Corey Patterson. Chances are C.Patt won't be with the Reds next year so they can spend that 3 million else where while Stubbs gets about 300,000.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2008, 05:43 PM
Yeah, Reds need some more sub-.800 OPS hitters.

If Stubbs puts up an OPS of .750 as a center fielder, he'll be above average. If he puts up an .800 OPS with 'gold glove' defense, he'll be All-Star caliber.

RED VAN HOT
07-09-2008, 05:59 PM
CF is a critical need for the Reds. It is also a position in which defensive ability is relatively more important. Looks to me that in the spring, the Reds did not see making a run this year with Freel as everyday CF'er. I think the Reds signed Corey, believing they could get good 'D' and a .260 avg. Yes, they overpaid, but there was reason to expect they could those numbers. To date, Bruce has proved he is a better RF than CF.

I think they drafted Stubbs as a potential gold glove CF. My guess is that the Reds would happily settle for offensive numbers at the ML level consistent with what Stubbs has put up in the minors. I don't see any other true CF'ers in the system. They need to push Stubbs so they can determine if Drew is their guy. Another possibility is a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon with Chris getting the call against tough right handers. If not Dickerson, is he worth protecting on the 40 man roster at all? Also, they have to make a decision on Hairston for next year...CF? SS? Where does he fit in, if at all? The first step in sorting this out seems to be to challenge Stubbs and Dickerson with promotions. I expect to see Dickerson to Reds and a Lookouts outfielder to Bats soon.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2008, 06:49 PM
I expect to see Dickerson to Reds and a Lookouts outfielder to Bats soon.

Shaun Cumberland was sent to Louisville the same day Stubbs was sent to Chattanooga. I don't know what the plan for replacing Stubbs in Sarasota is, though.

TRF
07-09-2008, 07:08 PM
I'm sorry TRF, but in isolation, two months in a row is still meaningless. The more data we have the better. If it's 3 months in a row, it starts to reach the level of meaningful. And if it's 4 or 5, now you're talking. But 2 is not the point at which we can start to infer meaning. The sample size is still too small.

I agree with your second point though. Add it to your overall body of knowledge. Selectively choosing end points to establish a new baseline is folly. It is extremely unlikely that Stubbs' true ability has changed for the worse over the course of the year. Stubbs isn't the .900+ OPS guy he was in April and he's not the sub .700 OPS guy he was in June. He's the guy who did both and as he accrues at bats is most likely to produce something closer to his season-to-date numbers than any of his monthly breakouts or grouping thereof.

He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2008, 12:10 PM
Reds Promote Stubbs To Double-A

Posted Jul. 9, 2008 7:43 pm by Nathan Rode
Filed under: Daily Dish, Promotions

Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs, the organization’s No. 5 prospect entering the season has been promoted to Double-A Chattanooga. The eighth overall pick in 2006, Stubbs hit .261/.366/.406 in 303 at-bats with 27 stolen bases for high Class A Sarasota.

Stubbs is a supremely athletic outfielder with above-average speed, defense and raw power. If his hitting comes around he could be a star with three above-average tools, although he has to stay healthy to reach that potential. A turf-toe injury in 2007 hampered Stubbs, leading to the belief that his career stolen base count should be higher than the current mark of 69.

The strikeouts have piled up with Stubbs, but last year with Daytona, he followed along with the team "choke up" policy that was implemented by coaches. Stubbs benefited the most, hitting .366 after the change and showing more bat control, striking out just twice in the ensuing 42 at-bats.

Stubbs was also named to this year’s Florida State League all-star game in which he hit a home run and took home the MVP honors.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/

redhawk61
07-10-2008, 03:54 PM
does he still choke up...cause he should, don't know why the organization would see him make contact consistently and K a great deal less, making him the perfect leadoff hitter, yet allow him to go make to the way it was before. Who cares about the power if he could choke up and hit .285+ with a .380 OBP and a .390-.410 SLG with GG defense and 45+ stolen bases a year, I am pretty sure everyone would be just fine with him.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 05:12 PM
Another possibility is a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon with Chris getting the call against tough right handers.

I think a Stubbs/Dickerson platoon is an excellent idea.

It only makes sense until one of them separates themselves from the other.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 05:17 PM
He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

I guarantee Stubbs goes .800+ at Chattanooga from here on out.

I also think he gets a shot to make the 25-man next spring.

I would take a .700+ OPS from him or Dickerson, right now, and tell Corey Patterson to take a hike.

RedsManRick
07-10-2008, 05:22 PM
He didn't hit at Billings
He didn't hit at Dayton until the final 2 months
He hasn't hit at Sarasota except for April.

That's not a very good profile so far. I hope he rakes at Chattanooga. I really, really do.

But I'm not buying so far.

Billings: 210 AB, .252/.368/.400, .768
Dayton: 497 AB, .270/.364/.421, .785
Sarasota: 300 AB, .263/.367/.410, .777

Now, I'm in no way a Stubbs defender, but when within those seasons he surged and struggled is really irrelevant. Each year, he's progressed to the next level and maintained his level of performance.

Monthly splits simply aren't valid samples and you should really get past that. Every player has good and bad months, often back to back. On balance, Stubbs has hit. Not incredibly well given his age perhaps, but pretty darn consistently once you look at appropriately sized samples.

If you asked me, a pretty good projection for how he's going to hit in Sarasota would be in the ball park of a .750-.800 OPS. I've actually projected a bit lower than that because of his specific problem making contact. But you can't cherry pick months as a justification.

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2008, 11:08 PM
Great debut tonight for Stubbs. He went 4-for-5 with a double and stolen base in his AA debut. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come for him.

Kingspoint
07-12-2008, 11:50 PM
After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

pahster
07-12-2008, 11:51 PM
After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

He hurt his wrist running into the wall.

tbball10
07-12-2008, 11:52 PM
After a 4-5 opening night, he hasn't played the last two games.

Why not?

i believe he injured his wrist... possibly in batting practice according to some others on here

Kingspoint
07-12-2008, 11:53 PM
Tx.

I remember Junior losing 1/2 a season when he did it.

757690
07-13-2008, 12:49 AM
I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

fearofpopvol1
07-13-2008, 02:23 AM
I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

I think projecting a .360-370 OBP is probably a bit generous. I mean, he may reach that (and I hope he does), but I'm not sure how realistic that is.

redhawk61
07-13-2008, 11:43 AM
I think a few people are upset that Stubbs has not been another Bruce, or another Bailey the first few years after he was drafted. Being drafted one spot ahead of Lincecum doesn't help either.

But Stubbs is on track to becoming a very valuable everyday player for the Reds. If he can play plus defense in CF, and leadoff with a .360-370 OBP with 20-30 steals every year, he will be one of the teams most valuable players. Who cares what his SLG is if he is leading off?

Hairston has shown us how important a leadoff hitter is, and his OBP is just a bit better than Stubbs. And this team needs defense, badly. Solid defensive CF who can leadoff and steal bases are pretty rare these days, and to have one that is young and under team control for 5 years is a huge advantage.

Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.
agreed, though he is capable of stealing way more than 20-30 a year, more like 40-50

SteelSD
07-14-2008, 12:36 AM
Now, Stubbs may not be able to continue what he is doing, but if he does, he could be very similar to DeJesus in KC. Just think how good the Reds would be if they had him right now.

Yeah, if the Reds had a CF prospect who projected a whole lot better than Drew Stubbs, then they'd be better off. And that's pretty much the description of David DeJesus.

Certainly, things look a lot better when we find someone a prospect isn't like and then wonder how excellent things would be if said prospect was actually like the better player.

RedlegJake
07-14-2008, 01:43 AM
Yeah, if the Reds had a CF prospect who projected a whole lot better than Drew Stubbs, then they'd be better off. And that's pretty much the description of David DeJesus.

Certainly, things look a lot better when we find someone a prospect isn't like and then wonder how excellent things would be if said prospect was actually like the better player.

I'm glad you said that because I don't see any resemblance to David DeJesus in Drew Stubbs.

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 02:09 AM
I'll take a .350 OBP w/ 45 Steals and A-level Centerfield Defense any day of the week for a starter.

bucksfan2
07-14-2008, 08:36 AM
I think projecting a .360-370 OBP is probably a bit generous. I mean, he may reach that (and I hope he does), but I'm not sure how realistic that is.

As Stubbs has increased his statline has basically remained the same. He basically put up the same numbers in Sarasota that he did in Dayton which bodes pretty well for him in the future.

I have said this before but I think Stubbs will be a similar player to Dunn. Dunn's HR's will be Stubbs doubles but at the same time he will bring speed to both the base paths and in CF.

I also find irony in Stubbs BA. Most people on this board continue to mention how BA is just a poor stat to use as analysis. However Stubbs continues to be railed because of his low BA. IMO OBP is the best statistical analysis for Stubbs. His value is being able to get on base and make things happen when he does.

Griffey012
07-14-2008, 09:09 AM
I'll take a .350 OBP w/ 45 Steals and A-level Centerfield Defense any day of the week for a starter.

I'd be willing to pay quite a bit of money for it.

Steve4192
07-14-2008, 09:11 AM
I have said this before but I think Stubbs will be a similar player to Dunn.

I really don't get this at all.

As hitters, they have two things in common (inability to make consistent contact, solid ability to get on base in spite of that). Other than that, I can't think of two ballplayers who are more different than Dunn and Stubbs.

Defense - Stubbs is an outstanding defender who makes great reads off the bat, has excellent range, tracks the ball well and takes good angles, and has a strong accurate arm. Dunn is pretty much terrible at all of those things.

Baserunning - Stubbs runs like a deer and by all accounts is a very smart baserunner. Dunn runs like a John Deere and is prone to baserunning blunders.

Hitting for power - Stubbs has the ability to drive the ball into gaps and use his speed to acquire extra bases. Dunn has the ability to hit the ball into the river and walk around the bases.

Even their similarities aren't all that similar, as Dunn showed more ability to make contact and MUCH more ability to get on base as a minor leaguer than Stubbs has shown.

Team Clark
07-14-2008, 10:22 AM
Just keep doing what you were doing Drew and things will be fine.

14.2% walk rate
22.8% strikeout rate
27% line drive rate

Do those in AA, and your numbers will pile up.

Agreed. Especially since you will be seeing more quality strikes. You put a good swing on a good pitch and you are going to have some succes.

princeton
07-14-2008, 10:47 AM
put a good swing...

there's the rub

UK Reds Fan
07-14-2008, 11:31 AM
Dunn was OPSing over 1000 in AA and AAA...Stubbs is OPSing 750ish in A and A+...there is huge likelihood that Stubbs will struggle to maintain a 750 OPS in AAA let alone in the majors.

Oxilon
07-14-2008, 11:39 AM
Dunn and Stubbs are completely opposite types of players...it'd be like comparing apples and oranges.

Screwball
07-14-2008, 12:03 PM
Dunn was OPSing over 1000 in AA and AAA...Stubbs is OPSing 750ish in A and A+...there is huge likelihood that Stubbs will struggle to maintain a 750 OPS in AAA let alone in the majors.

Stubbs OPS these past two seasons in A ball:

2007: .785
2008: .772

So, it's more like .780ish. Not a huge difference, but there's no need to make him look worse than he really is.

flyer85
07-14-2008, 12:04 PM
also find irony in Stubbs BA. Most people on this board continue to mention how BA is just a poor stat to use as analysis. However Stubbs continues to be railed because of his low BA. His problem is a low SLG%. If that remains true the BBs are going to dry up(which means the OBP will plummet) when he reaches the majors.

RedsManRick
07-14-2008, 12:05 PM
As Stubbs has increased his statline has basically remained the same. He basically put up the same numbers in Sarasota that he did in Dayton which bodes pretty well for him in the future.

Yes, generally speaking this is good news. But let's remember that Stubbs is old for his level or at minimum, not young. I like to think of the analogy of a big construction project that is on schedule for completion in 2 years. It's great that it's on schedule today, but any setbacks in that timeline could be quite expensive/damaging.



I have said this before but I think Stubbs will be a similar player to Dunn. Dunn's HR's will be Stubbs doubles but at the same time he will bring speed to both the base paths and in CF.

The #1 defining trait about Adam Dunn is his power. Stubbs does not have Dunn's power. Stubbs #1 defining trait is his defense in CF. Dunn does not have Stubbs defensive ability. Yes, the both walk a lot and strikeout a lot, but they are hardly similar.



I also find irony in Stubbs BA. Most people on this board continue to mention how BA is just a poor stat to use as analysis. However Stubbs continues to be railed because of his low BA. IMO OBP is the best statistical analysis for Stubbs. His value is being able to get on base and make things happen when he does.

When people are critical of Stubbs' low batting average, it's not part of an analysis of his level of production. From a production measurement angle, a low BA is not a problem when offset by high OBP and SLG.

The problem of Stubbs' low batting average in the minors is that it is indicative of a skill deficiency that may torpedo his career. Batting average tends to decline as player's move up in to the upper minors. Stubbs is already walking as much as he can and has yet to display anything more than 10-15 HR power. If his batting average dips any further, there's not much he can do to offset it and remain a productive offensive player.

Adam Dunn was a .304 career minor league hitter because even though he struck out a lot, when he did put the ball in play he often hit it to a place where it could not be fielded. His power and HOF level plate discipline served as a counter balance to a clear contact problem which became more evident as he reached the majors. Stubbs does not have that luxury.

You know how in some video games, like old-school Mario, the screen would automatically scroll left-to-right and the character had to keep moving or he'd die? The progression of a minor leaguer is sort of like that. Stubbs is staying ahead of the moving screen of death, but he's hardly running ahead or scoring a ton of points along the way.

I'm hopeful that he'll keep it up and perhaps even pick up the pace a bit. But I'm fearful that as he moves in to the upper minors, he's going to run in to an obstacle and the screen is going to catch up to him. Time will tell.

flyer85
07-14-2008, 12:05 PM
Dunn showed more ability to make contact and MUCH more ability to get on base as a minor leaguer than Stubbs has shown.... yet somehow Stubbs is magically going to hit when he reaches the majors.

Joseph
07-14-2008, 12:17 PM
Dunn and Stubbs are completely opposite types of players...it'd be like comparing apples and oranges.

More like comparing apples and tacos :)

M2
07-14-2008, 01:41 PM
He hurt his wrist running into the wall.

Fantastic. I can't wait to read about how Stubbs was an .800 hitter until he injured his wrist or that the wrist injury deprived him of the power that he's never shown before but surely has.

camisadelgolf
07-14-2008, 01:45 PM
Fantastic. I can't wait to read about how Stubbs was an .800 hitter until he injured his wrist or that the wrist injury deprived him of the power that he's never shown before but surely has.

Sometimes your negativity (not you, personally) annoys me, but I just had to laugh at this.

:lol:

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 02:48 PM
Dunn was OPSing over 1000 in AA and AAA...Stubbs is OPSing 750ish in A and A+...there is huge likelihood that Stubbs will struggle to maintain a 750 OPS in AAA let alone in the majors.

Dunn is a "guess" hitter. In the minors it's a lot easier to "guess" what the pitch is going to be as there are fewer pitches to "guess" from. In the Majors, he's overmatched at "guessing" the pitch. That's why it's all or nothing for him all the time and why he's such a poor hitter with RISP.

When Dunn leaves the team will be better by subtraction.

Guess hitters are a dime a dozen.

This is Dunn's peak year at the age of 28 and now's the time to sell.

Management knows what they're doing. Dunn will be gone.

As far as Stubbs is concerned, his OPS is irrelevant. His job is to get to 2nd Base abd put himself in scoring position, so the only stats that matter are OBP, SB's, and Doubles. He plays A-level CF Defense. He's projecting to be a player that helps win games for the REDS at a level equal to that of Dunn. He will do it differently.

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 02:52 PM
... yet somehow Stubbs is magically going to hit when he reaches the majors.

Didn't you say at the time of the Thompson trade that Thompson wouldn't be able to pitch in the Majors?

http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=50040&highlight=thompson&page=5

"Those two players were traded for what to this point is almost nothing in return, as Majewski was worse than awful and Bray has been decidedly mediocre at best.

The question what could those two likely been flipped for at the deadline or in the off season? Without a doubt the answer is a lot more than Bray and Majewski because Clayton, Harris and likely Thompson will never have any value."

With that in mind, what the REDS are hoping to develop out of Stubbs is a player that can reach base at a .350 clip. When that is combined with his ability to steal bases and his excellent defense in Centerfield, it doesn't matter what his slugging percentage is. It's not his job to score runs. His job will be to save runs from being scored and when on Offense, to get himself to secondbase via a single or walk + stolen base, or by a double, or by a triple.

princeton
07-14-2008, 03:03 PM
Dunn is a "guess" hitter.

Stubbs isn't a guess hitter?

is that because he's a guess out-er?

Fil3232
07-14-2008, 03:14 PM
Dunn is a "guess" hitter. In the minors it's a lot easier to "guess" what the pitch is going to be as there are fewer pitches to "guess" from. In the Majors, he's overmatched at "guessing" the pitch. That's why it's all or nothing for him all the time and why he's such a poor hitter with RISP.

When Dunn leaves the team will be better by subtraction.

Guess hitters are a dime a dozen.

There's just so much wrong packed into that it's incredible.

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 03:16 PM
Like others have made reference to, the only reason I hope Dunn leaves is so we won't be subjected to stuff like this. :rolleyes:

Stuff like what?

Kingspoint
07-14-2008, 03:17 PM
I'm looking forward to the players that are lined up to replace Dunn. There's half a dozen already....and at 1/20th the cost.

Like it or not, the money should be spent intelligently.

joshnky
07-14-2008, 03:54 PM
I'm looking forward to the players that are lined up to replace Dunn. There's half a dozen already....and at 1/20th the cost.

Like it or not, the money should be spent intelligently.

How does a thread bashing Stubbs get turned into a thread bashing Dunn? It doesn't seem possible to have a single thread on this forum that doesn't turn into a Dunn fight.

RedEye
07-14-2008, 03:59 PM
Dunn is a "guess" hitter. In the minors it's a lot easier to "guess" what the pitch is going to be as there are fewer pitches to "guess" from. In the Majors, he's overmatched at "guessing" the pitch. That's why it's all or nothing for him all the time and why he's such a poor hitter with RISP.

When Dunn leaves the team will be better by subtraction.

Guess hitters are a dime a dozen.

This is Dunn's peak year at the age of 28 and now's the time to sell.

Management knows what they're doing. Dunn will be gone.

As far as Stubbs is concerned, his OPS is irrelevant. His job is to get to 2nd Base abd put himself in scoring position, so the only stats that matter are OBP, SB's, and Doubles. He plays A-level CF Defense. He's projecting to be a player that helps win games for the REDS at a level equal to that of Dunn. He will do it differently.

You write with a lot of certainty that Dunn is a "guess" hitter. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be a major league caliber player if that were actually the case. If you said that about Corey Patterson, I might be more sympathetic to the claim...

OPS is a relevant statistic for any player who is supposed to have offensive value.

Joseph
07-14-2008, 04:35 PM
Gang, lets take the Dunn talk to the majors forums, back on the Stubbs topic or we'll close the thread.

dougdirt
07-14-2008, 04:41 PM
Gang, lets take the Dunn talk to the majors forums, back on the Stubbs topic or we'll close the thread.

Drew Stubbs rules. :thumbup:

Falls City Beer
07-14-2008, 05:20 PM
I prefer Lincecum. The Reds could have had the market cornered on short righties who K the universe.

camisadelgolf
07-14-2008, 05:27 PM
I prefer Lincecum. The Reds could have had the market cornered on short righties who K the universe.

Me, too. But at the time of the draft, I would've picked Stubbs, too.

Joseph
07-14-2008, 06:51 PM
Drew Stubbs rules. :thumbup:

Let's hope.

Oxilon
07-15-2008, 04:42 PM
With that in mind, what the REDS are hoping to develop out of Stubbs is a player that can reach base at a .350 clip. When that is combined with his ability to steal bases and his excellent defense in Centerfield, it doesn't matter what his slugging percentage is. It's not his job to score runs. His job will be to save runs from being scored and when on Offense, to get himself to secondbase via a single or walk + stolen base, or by a double, or by a triple.

It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

RedsManRick
07-15-2008, 06:31 PM
It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

I would say that the job of every player on the offensive end is to create runs. In order to create runs, avoiding outs is priority #1. That said, there are many skills which can be used in scoring runs. A smart manager utilizes his players in such a way as to maximize the value of the things at which they excel and minimize the detriment of their weaknesses.

Stubbs' job, like Dunn's, is to create runs. Given the type of player he is, Stubb's will most likely produce runs most efficiently by leading off, just as Dunn would do it by batting somewhere 2-4.

crazyredfan40
07-15-2008, 06:43 PM
It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?

Well obviously an OBP of .350 would mean he is doing a great job of not making an out...

Also a Drew Stubbs with bad defense isn't getting talked about...But his speed and defense, and his high OBP are getting him talked about...

Different guys have different roles on the team...IF you have a guy like Stubbs you need guys like Dunn, Bruce, Votto to bring them around the bases...

mth123
07-15-2008, 08:34 PM
I think that there is a difference that can't be stated enough and it concerns how that OBP is obtained. In Stubbs case you have a kid with a good eye and the restraint not to swing when the young and many times wild pitchers at those low levels are throwing to him. As he moves up the ladder, the control is going to be better and that OBP will probably come down unless....

...he finds the piece of the puzzle that Dunn has in spades and that is the ability to punish the pitcher for coming right at him. Plate discipline is important of course, but overlooking the role that power and slugging ability has in sustaining a high OBP is a big mistake. Forcing pitchers to work carefully and nibble around the strike zone is what allows the plate discipline to come into play in the first place. IMO, Stubbs will need to develop some consistent slugging ability in order to maintain that high OBP as he moves up the ladder. Otherwise, pitchers will come right at him because they don't fear him and his plate discipline will largely be a skill that doesn't come into play much. Its not impossible as there are many guys who weren't known as big sluggers that had a high OBP, but most were known as good hitters who could hit for a high average and usually didn't have the contact issues that Stubbs has. If he's going to continue to be a high K, mediocre average hitter, he'll need some pop to keep up that OBP IMO. I think he "could" do it, but we haven't seen anything yet to make me think carrying that OBP up to higher levels is the given that many think it is.

lollipopcurve
07-15-2008, 08:57 PM
In Stubbs case you have a kid with a good eye and the restraint not to swing when the young and many times wild pitchers at those low levels are throwing to him. As he moves up the ladder, the control is going to be better and that OBP will probably come down unless....

There's truth to this. But it's also true that lighting is better in major league parks and the strike zone is smaller. It's a hitters game these days.

OnBaseMachine
07-16-2008, 02:49 AM
Chattanooga: Stubbs has noteworthy debut with Lookouts

By: David Paschall
(Contact)

As far as debuts go, Drew Stubbs assembled a pretty good one last Thursday night at AT&T Field.

In his first Double-A game and his first as a member of the Chattanooga Lookouts, the center fielder raced to the gap in left-center to rob Huntsville of an extra-base hit in the first inning. He singled in his first at-bat during the second inning and added three more hits for a 4-for-5 opening at the plate.

So what did he enjoy most?

“If you can make a play in the field to really help during a tough spot in an inning, making a catch like that can really take the wind out of the other team,” Stubbs said. “In that situation, the catch is better. Otherwise, you always like to get four hits in a game.”

While maintaining his .800 average may be a bit of a task, Stubbs is hoping there will be plenty of Lookouts games in which he can provide productivity with his bat and glove.

Stubbs was the first-round pick of the Cincinnati Reds two years ago out of the University of Texas and signed for $2 million. He hit .270 with 12 home runs and 43 RBIs last season at Single-A Dayton and was hitting .261 with five homers and 38 RBIs in 86 games at high Single-A Sarasota before his promotion last Wednesday.

Cincinnati farm director Terry Reynolds said the promotion of Stubbs was due partly to an injury to Aaron Herr at Triple-A, which sent Shaun Cumberland up from Chattanooga.

“Two things have to happen for a guy to get promoted — a guy has to perform, and there has to be an opportunity,” Reynolds said. “There is an opportunity now for Stubbs, and he’s played well enough to earn it. He’s a guy who’s going to eat up ground in the outfield. He has raw power, and he swung the bat exceptionally well the last month in Sarasota.

“Now that he’s there, he’s got to play well to stay there, but I think he’ll be an exciting guy for the fans there to watch.”

Stubbs began this season rated by Baseball America as the No. 5 prospect in Cincinnati’s organization and the No. 100 prospect overall. By coming to Chattanooga, he rejoined a slew of players he started the season with in the Florida State League, including infielders Chris Valaika, Michael DeJesus and Justin Turner and outfielder Sean Henry.

One factor that hindered Stubbs from arriving earlier was a disappointing late-spring stretch.

“It’s one of those things I guess everybody goes through, so you just try to limit your slumps to a minimal amount of games as possible,” Stubbs said. “It just kind of drug on and ended up being a bad month instead of a bad week. That’s the thing I continue to strive toward, limiting those bad times when you’re not feeling as good at the plate.”

The 23-year-old did not play last Friday or Saturday because of a strained wrist he suffered when his running catch took him up against the wall. He didn’t notice the injury until halfway through the game because of the adrenaline that was accompanying his debut.

Stubbs should return to the lineup tonight when the Lookouts resume play in Mobile, and manager Mike Goff can’t wait.

“We really haven’t had a true center fielder here the entire year,” Goff said. “A lot of guys have been playing center, but here is a guy who’s been playing center his whole life. The Shaun Cumberlands, B.J. Szymanskis and Cody Straits have all pretty much been corner guys who were playing center field because we had no true center fielder at that time. They did a good job, but seeing a guy like Stubbs go get that ball the other night was pretty impressive.

“That’s what you expect to see at this level and above playing center field.”

http://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2008/jul/16/chattanooga-stubbs-has-noteworthy-debut-lookouts/?sports

lollipopcurve
07-16-2008, 07:56 AM
“We really haven’t had a true center fielder here the entire year,” Goff said. “A lot of guys have been playing center, but here is a guy who’s been playing center his whole life. The Shaun Cumberlands, B.J. Szymanskis and Cody Straits have all pretty much been corner guys who were playing center field because we had no true center fielder at that time. They did a good job, but seeing a guy like Stubbs go get that ball the other night was pretty impressive.

“That’s what you expect to see at this level and above playing center field.”

With all the blather about Stubbs' offense, it's important to remember what he brings as an outstanding defensive CF. Interesting to see that Cumberland's (and Henry, apparently) more of a corner guy.

ochre
07-16-2008, 11:47 AM
It's this argument displayed here that really almost contradicts all of the Dunn arguments. The argument against Dunn has always been, he's not hitting like a cleanup hitter should, in that, he's BA is too low or he's not getting hits with RISP with which than the counter-argument says Dunn's job, as is everybody else's job for that matter, is to not get an out and keep the inning alive (which he does as evident in his OB clip). Now, in this case, should that not be the same case for Stubbs or is his role completely different?
The concern isn't his OBP. The concern is whether, or not, that OBP projects as he advances due to pitchers figuring out he's not a threat to (damagingly) hit the ball. The markers for the damagingly component being BA and SLG.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 07:49 PM
Dunn is a "guess" hitter. In the minors it's a lot easier to "guess" what the pitch is going to be as there are fewer pitches to "guess" from. In the Majors, he's overmatched at "guessing" the pitch. That's why it's all or nothing for him all the time and why he's such a poor hitter with RISP.

When Dunn leaves the team will be better by subtraction.

Guess hitters are a dime a dozen.

This is Dunn's peak year at the age of 28 and now's the time to sell.

Management knows what they're doing. Dunn will be gone.

As far as Stubbs is concerned, his OPS is irrelevant. His job is to get to 2nd Base abd put himself in scoring position, so the only stats that matter are OBP, SB's, and Doubles. He plays A-level CF Defense. He's projecting to be a player that helps win games for the REDS at a level equal to that of Dunn. He will do it differently.

Ok, I'll bite.... how will the Reds be better when Dunn leaves the team?



As for Stubbs, he'll certainly help defensively (something the Reds deeply need), but offensively we'll be wishing for Corey Patterson.

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 07:51 PM
As for Stubbs, he'll certainly help defensively (something the Reds deeply need), but offensively we'll be wishing for Corey Patterson.
I will bite and say, no way on earth will Stubbs be close to as bad as Corey Patterson. Patterson has a .562 OPS this year.... while playing in GABP.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 07:52 PM
I'm looking forward to the players that are lined up to replace Dunn. There's half a dozen already....and at 1/20th the cost.

Like it or not, the money should be spent intelligently.

So who are these 6 guys lined up to replace Dunn? And by replace Dunn, I mean equal his offensive production. I'm sure there's plenty of guys that can replace Dunn, but no one in the pipelines that will duplicate what he does with the stick.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 07:53 PM
Me, too. But at the time of the draft, I would've picked Stubbs, too.

What did you like about Stubbs at the time of the draft that edged him over Lincecum?

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 07:55 PM
So who are these 6 guys lined up to replace Dunn? And by replace Dunn, I mean equal his offensive production. I'm sure there's plenty of guys that can replace Dunn, but no one in the pipelines that will duplicate what he does with the stick.

Not that they have to duplicate what he does with the stick because they will likely be a defensive upgrade and also about 13 million dollars cheaper which will allow the Reds to improve the club elsewhere. I would take my chances with Danny Dorn/RH platoon guy out there next year unless Dunn is willing to sign for 3 years.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 07:59 PM
I will bite and say, no way on earth will Stubbs be close to as bad as Corey Patterson. Patterson has a .562 OPS this year.... while playing in GABP.

I honestly believe Stubbs would be worse offensively than Patterson if he were on the Reds right now. Give Stubbs the 2+ more years he needs to develop, and he'll be better than Patterson offensively.

But right now? Him being challenged to make consistent contact, the only way he'd get on base is via the free pass. And given that Stubbs doesn't sport a high SLG, that only leads me to believe his OPS would be low low low. Like Patterson low.

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 08:04 PM
I honestly believe Stubbs would be worse offensively than Patterson if he were on the Reds right now. Give Stubbs the 2+ more years he needs to develop, and he'll be better than Patterson offensively.

But right now? Him being challenged to make consistent contact, the only way he'd get on base is via the free pass. And given that Stubbs doesn't sport a high SLG, that only leads me to believe his OPS would be low low low. Like Patterson low.

While I don't think Stubbs would be worse than Patterson right now on the Reds, I don't think he would be too much better offensively, but still a little better. But Stubbs doesn't have to be in Cincinnati right now, and by the time he gets to Cincinnati (and he will get there) he will be a better offensive player than Patterson and I don't think it will be close (not that its hard to not be close to as bad as a .562 OPS). While Stubbs has his contact issue, I don't think he is a slap hitter and put in a ballpark like GABP I don't think he will have problems hitting for average to slightly above average power for a centerfielder.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 08:04 PM
Not that they have to duplicate what he does with the stick because they will likely be a defensive upgrade and also about 13 million dollars cheaper which will allow the Reds to improve the club elsewhere. I would take my chances with Danny Dorn/RH platoon guy out there next year unless Dunn is willing to sign for 3 years.

Ok, so Dorn's 1.

5 more?

And, the hot question about Mr. Stubbs, when will we see him up in Cincy to stay?

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 08:09 PM
Ok, so Dorn's 1.

5 more?

And, the hot question about Mr. Stubbs, when will we see him up in Cincy to stay?

I never made the statement about the 6 guys... I know I don't have that many in mind.

As for Stubbs, I honestly believe he will be in Cincinnati to stay sometime next year, post June.

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:01 PM
You write with a lot of certainty that Dunn is a "guess" hitter. I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be a major league caliber player if that were actually the case. If you said that about Corey Patterson, I might be more sympathetic to the claim...

OPS is a relevant statistic for any player who is supposed to have offensive value.

A lot of players have had good careers being "guess hitters". Dunn is one of them that's had an excellent career at being a "guess hitter".

RedEye
07-16-2008, 10:04 PM
A lot of players have had good careers being "guess hitters". Dunn is one of them that's had an excellent career at being a "guess hitter".

Still see no evidence for your claim...

Sorry mods, I know this is a Stubbs thread. :rolleyes:

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:10 PM
So who are these 6 guys lined up to replace Dunn? And by replace Dunn, I mean equal his offensive production. I'm sure there's plenty of guys that can replace Dunn, but no one in the pipelines that will duplicate what he does with the stick.

This is a thread on Stubbs, so I'll state that Stubbs raised his average to .833 tonight with a 2nd-inning Single.

Only 2 of the 6 need to develop towards 80% of Dunn's Offensive capacity to be a "replacement" for him. It's likely that they save runs defensively and contribute better to the team in critical situations. There's a lot of difference between the RBI's that come from a 9-5 loss than the ones that come from a 3-2 win.

The "Group" of 6 are Votto (if Alonzo plays 1st Base), Henry, Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson, Stubbs, and I'm sure I'm missing one. Bruce has Right Field. Dickerson or Stubbs has CenterField. It's likely that Votto will be the Left Fielder, unless Alonzo becomes the Left-Fielder, but I doubt it. And there's still guys like Hairston and Cabrera that can play the Outfield. Gonzalez is supposed to be back for next season, so Keppinger can also play Left Field. The options for replacing Dunn are endless. He's having his best year in the Majors so now is a time to trade him away. I'll not talk about Dunn anymore on this thread as I was mentioning it because his leaving can open things up for Stubbs to get to Cincinnati sooner. Dickerson and Hairston would have to move out of CenterField.

And, whoever doesn't play SS between Valaika and Frazier in 2010 will need a place to play. With Alonzo at 1st, Phillips at 2nd, EE at 3rd, Bruce in RF, Votto in LF and Stubbs in CF, Frazier will be a Utility Player until an injury occurs.

And, in 2011 Neftali Soto's knocking on the door at SS.

There's been a nice run of talent entering the REDS' Major League roster each of the last two seasons and for the next 3 seasons to come. It'd be a nice time to be getting into some season-ticket package.

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:11 PM
Still see no evidence for your claim...

Sorry mods, I know this is a Stubbs thread. :rolleyes:

It's common knowledge that Dunn is a "guess" hitter. No evidence is needed. Ask anyone who plays in the Majors and they'll tell you that he is.

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:25 PM
Plus, what's great about Stubbs is he bats Right-Handed. The REDS are loaded with Left-Handers in Bruce, Votto, Alonzo, Dorn, Cumberland and Dickerson.

Highlifeman21
07-16-2008, 10:39 PM
This is a thread on Stubbs, so I'll state that Stubbs raised his average to .833 tonight with a 2nd-inning Single.

Only 2 of the 6 need to develop towards 80% of Dunn's Offensive capacity to be a "replacement" for him. It's likely that they save runs defensively and contribute better to the team in critical situations. There's a lot of difference between the RBI's that come from a 9-5 loss than the ones that come from a 3-2 win.

The "Group" of 6 are Votto (if Alonzo plays 1st Base), Henry, Cumberland, Dorn, Dickerson, Stubbs, and I'm sure I'm missing one. Bruce has Right Field. Dickerson or Stubbs has CenterField. It's likely that Votto will be the Left Fielder, unless Alonzo becomes the Left-Fielder, but I doubt it. And there's still guys like Hairston and Cabrera that can play the Outfield. Gonzalez is supposed to be back for next season, so Keppinger can also play Left Field. The options for replacing Dunn are endless. He's having his best year in the Majors so now is a time to trade him away. I'll not talk about Dunn anymore on this thread as I was mentioning it because his leaving can open things up for Stubbs to get to Cincinnati sooner. Dickerson and Hairston would have to move out of CenterField.

And, whoever doesn't play SS between Valaika and Frazier in 2010 will need a place to play. With Alonzo at 1st, Phillips at 2nd, EE at 3rd, Bruce in RF, Votto in LF and Stubbs in CF, Frazier will be a Utility Player until an injury occurs.

If Stubbs, Cumberland or Dickerson are long-term solutions to replacing Adam Dunn, then the Reds' woes will continue for eternity.

Stubbs projects at best to be a 4th OF. Dickerson about the same, maybe slightly less. Cumberland may never make it to the show for an extended cup of coffee.

I understand trying to rally the troops and trumpet the kids on the horizon, but it's hard to get behind Drew Stubbs as a positive solution to anything involving the Reds.

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 10:44 PM
Stubbs projects at best to be a 4th OF.

Thats a downright poor assumption. At BEST, he is a 4th outfielder? You have to be kidding me.

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:53 PM
Highlife, I agree with you on Dickerson as I see him only contibuting as a starter one year, next year, and then Stubbs takes over for him in CF in 2010 while Votto takes over LF in 2010. Wouldn't you agree that Votto would be a good replacement for Dunn? Alonzo will be playing 1B in 2010 for the REDS. Dorn and/or Cumberland will be Utility Outfielders in 2010 w/ Cumberland a Utility OF in 2009.

Next year, Keppinger can play LF, and that would be a more than adequate replacement for Dunn. EE will play 3rd next year again and Gonzo will be back to play SS before giving way to Valaika and Frazier in 2010 and Neftali Soto will be up in 2011.

There's no room for Dunn, so trade him at his highest value right now for some starting pitching, which you can never have enough of.

dougdirt
07-16-2008, 10:55 PM
There's no room for Dunn, so trade him at his highest value right now for some starting pitching, which you can never have enough of.

I wish we could trade Dunn for starting pitching, but we can't because no one values him that much with his current contract status.

Yay Drew Stubbs!

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:56 PM
I never made the statement about the 6 guys... I know I don't have that many in mind.

As for Stubbs, I honestly believe he will be in Cincinnati to stay sometime next year, post June.

It's makes me giddy looking at what's coming through the REDS' system. It's harvest time every year for about 4 years in a row beginning this season with Votto, Bruce, and Cueto.

Kingspoint
07-16-2008, 10:59 PM
I wish we could trade Dunn for starting pitching, but we can't because no one values him that much with his current contract status.

Yay Drew Stubbs!

Another nice night for Stubbs, tonight. So, far...4 AB's with 2 BB's and a Single.

lollipopcurve
07-17-2008, 07:37 AM
but it's hard to get behind Drew Stubbs as a positive solution to anything involving the Reds.

Yeah, because the Reds have been awash in great defense up the middle for years now with no end in sight.

Come on. The player's got a good chance to help the major league team in one important respect, at least. Try to be objective.

GoReds
07-17-2008, 08:01 AM
So, is Stubbs potential to be a left-handed version of Cesar Geronimo? If so, sign me up already.

Grande Donkey
07-17-2008, 09:02 AM
So, is Stubbs potential to be a left-handed version of Cesar Geronimo? If so, sign me up already.Stubbs is right-handed. I don't think anyone would turn away another Cesar Geronimo.

Team Clark
07-17-2008, 10:49 AM
there's the rub

He has the swing. IMO. His pitch selection and realizing what he can drive bothered me a bit from time to time. Not all that uncommon in the minor leagues. Zeroing in on your zone is one of your primary development skills. I know he's raking right now but I'd like to see what has transpired after 40-50 AB's. Take a snapshot so to speak of what he is trying to do with the baseball. Time will tell.

camisadelgolf
07-17-2008, 12:27 PM
What did you like about Stubbs at the time of the draft that edged him over Lincecum?

It had more to do with what I didn't like about Lincecum. Lincecum was under-sized, had unique mechanics, and his control needed improvement.

With Stubbs, he played superb defense at an important position, had excellent speed, and could possibly develop 20-30 homeruns-per-year power. Granted, he struck out a lot, and it was assumed that he always would, but his strikeouts weren't a result of lack of speed like we saw with, for example, Stephen Smitherman.

Highlifeman21
07-17-2008, 04:56 PM
Thats a downright poor assumption. At BEST, he is a 4th outfielder? You have to be kidding me.

What about Stubbs projects him any better than a 4th OF?

He won't have enough stick to be an everyday CF in the NL, but if he ended up in the AL, then he could be an everyday CF due to the fact there would be a DH to offset his lack of stick.

As a NL OF, he's a 4th OF at best.

dougdirt
07-17-2008, 05:00 PM
What about Stubbs projects him any better than a 4th OF?

He won't have enough stick to be an everyday CF in the NL, but if he ended up in the AL, then he could be an everyday CF due to the fact there would be a DH to offset his lack of stick.

As a NL OF, he's a 4th OF at best.

Your assumption is that he won't have the stick to be a CF in the NL. Well, his OPS has been ~.775 at every level. Until he shows somewhere along the lines that his production is going to fall off, and it hasn't yet, then I would say he statistically projects to be an average major league CF hitter. That doesn't take into account anything scouting wise where the scouts nearly universally like him more than the stat crowd.

redhawk61
07-17-2008, 05:34 PM
At best Stubbs projects to a starting CF playing 150+ games a year

At worst he is a 4th outfielder.

M2
07-17-2008, 05:45 PM
At best Stubbs projects to a starting CF playing 150+ games a year

At worst he is a 4th outfielder.

No, at worst he's a washout in the upper minors, the new Alejandro Diaz if you will (.779 OPS in A ball at age 23).

Kc61
07-17-2008, 05:58 PM
Your assumption is that he won't have the stick to be a CF in the NL. Well, his OPS has been ~.775 at every level. Until he shows somewhere along the lines that his production is going to fall off, and it hasn't yet, then I would say he statistically projects to be an average major league CF hitter. That doesn't take into account anything scouting wise where the scouts nearly universally like him more than the stat crowd.


A bit of a leap there, I'd say. Production of many, many AA and AAA players fall off when they hit the major leagues. I don't think you can so easily translate a .775 OPS in the minors -- at any level -- to a major league .775.

Chris Dickerson, probably Stubbs' equal as a defender, has a .796 OPS this year and last year had a .767 at two levels. 2006, was .779. Somehow, I don't think the Reds expect him to repeat those numbers in the NL without fall off. Same with Stubbs.

If Stubbs is a .775 OPS guy in the National League, given his defense I'd think that's acceptable. The problem is if it is a .735 OPS in the National League.

Kc61
07-17-2008, 06:01 PM
Sorry, delete. Duplicate post.

dougdirt
07-17-2008, 06:57 PM
A bit of a leap there, I'd say. Production of many, many AA and AAA players fall off when they hit the major leagues. I don't think you can so easily translate a .775 OPS in the minors -- at any level -- to a major league .775. While I wouldn't say a .775 OPS in the minors = a .775 OPS in the majors, until he shows that he hits a level where his production drops off, I think he is full capable of it. I have also been arguing all year that his production has been very good this year, but Sarasota and the FSL has been masking it. He is in AA now, time will tell.



Chris Dickerson, probably Stubbs' equal as a defender, has a .796 OPS this year and last year had a .767 at two levels. 2006, was .779. Somehow, I don't think the Reds expect him to repeat those numbers in the NL without fall off. Same with Stubbs.
Dickerson is a little older and has a slower bat. Numbers only mean so much to projection like previously noted.



If Stubbs is a .775 OPS guy in the National League, given his defense I'd think that's acceptable. The problem is if it is a .735 OPS in the National League.
If Stubbs is a .735 OPS guy, he will be an average CF overall given his defense. Easily.

RedLegsToday
07-18-2008, 01:20 PM
according to baseballprospectus, the average NL centerfielder is hitting:

.259 .327 .414, .741ops

dougdirt
07-18-2008, 01:33 PM
according to baseballprospectus, the average NL centerfielder is hitting:

.259 .327 .414, .741ops

I have plenty of faith Stubbs can put up that line in the majors when he gets here.

Kc61
07-18-2008, 01:40 PM
I have plenty of faith Stubbs can put up that line in the majors when he gets here.


That means you have faith that Stubbs can be average. When he was drafted among the top picks in baseball, some of us had hopes that he would be better. If he winds up as a .741 OPS guy, I wonder if he's much better than a Dickerson, who might possibly put up that number.

In the next 18 months, we will see what the Reds have in Stubbs. Right now, I'm expecting a good fielding starting centerfielder who bats seventh in the Reds order. I can live with that because it is an important defensive position. I hope he is able to achieve that much, and I'll be satisfied that it was a pretty good pick. A solid seventh place hitter, in the higher .700s OPS range (maybe .760-780 OPS).

If he can't hold down the seventh spot in the Reds order with reasonable offensive success, I won't be as happy. Although after last night's Reds/Mets game, it's hard to envision a Reds team that would be satisfying. Still annoyed.

dougdirt
07-18-2008, 01:48 PM
That means you have faith that Stubbs can be average. When he was drafted among the top picks in baseball, some of us had hopes that he would be better. If he winds up as a .741 OPS guy, I wonder if he's much better than a Dickerson, who might possibly put up that number.
I have hopes he will put up a better line than that, but I feel pretty certain he can put up a .741 OPS next year as a rookie.

princeton
07-18-2008, 02:09 PM
When he was drafted among the top picks in baseball, some of us had hopes that he would be better.


I've been hoping hard for average.

OnBaseMachine
07-18-2008, 02:32 PM
I'm holding out hope that Stubbs can develop into a .370 OBP/.400 SLG type of player. It's asking for a lot but I'm holding out hope. If he could do that, it would fill quite a few holes for the Reds: A lead off hitter who can actually get on base and steal bases and a gold glove caliber center fielder that we haven't had since the days of Mike Cameron or the 2000 version of Griffey. Stubbs in CF and Phillips at second base would go a long way in helping the Reds shore up the middle of the diamond defensively.

kaldaniels
07-18-2008, 02:40 PM
I've been hoping hard for average.

I have too, and I don't mean that in a bad way. In retrospect if you look at the #7 slot in the draft the past 10 years it pretty much produces an "average" MLB player at best. (on average)

I'd rather at this point the Reds had picked Lincecum. At the time I did not want them to, so I am not MMQB'ing. However it is done and I have no choice to root for Stubbs. And I will.

Drafting busts in the draft in the 90's set this franchise back. If you can just consistently draft solid players, that is all you need. Give me an average MLB centerfielder bat with GG defense and baserunning speed and I give this draft an A.

The fact that Lincecum was passed up does not raise my bar for Stubbs...maybe it does for others, but not me.

lollipopcurve
07-18-2008, 02:57 PM
I have too, and I don't mean that in a bad way. In retrospect if you look at the #7 slot in the draft the past 10 years it pretty much produces an "average" MLB player at best. (on average)

I'd rather at this point the Reds had picked Lincecum. At the time I did not want them to, so I am not MMQB'ing. However it is done and I have no choice to root for Stubbs. And I will.

Drafting busts in the draft in the 90's set this franchise back. If you can just consistently draft solid players, that is all you need. Give me an average MLB centerfielder bat with GG defense and baserunning speed and I give this draft an A.

The fact that Lincecum was passed up does not raise my bar for Stubbs...maybe it does for others, but not me.

Agree 100% -- well said.

mth123
07-18-2008, 03:05 PM
I have too, and I don't mean that in a bad way. In retrospect if you look at the #7 slot in the draft the past 10 years it pretty much produces an "average" MLB player at best. (on average)

I'd rather at this point the Reds had picked Lincecum. At the time I did not want them to, so I am not MMQB'ing. However it is done and I have no choice to root for Stubbs. And I will.

Drafting busts in the draft in the 90's set this franchise back. If you can just consistently draft solid players, that is all you need. Give me an average MLB centerfielder bat with GG defense and baserunning speed and I give this draft an A.

The fact that Lincecum was passed up does not raise my bar for Stubbs...maybe it does for others, but not me.

Good post

redsmetz
07-18-2008, 03:44 PM
I have too, and I don't mean that in a bad way. In retrospect if you look at the #7 slot in the draft the past 10 years it pretty much produces an "average" MLB player at best. (on average)

I'd rather at this point the Reds had picked Lincecum. At the time I did not want them to, so I am not MMQB'ing. However it is done and I have no choice to root for Stubbs. And I will.

Drafting busts in the draft in the 90's set this franchise back. If you can just consistently draft solid players, that is all you need. Give me an average MLB centerfielder bat with GG defense and baserunning speed and I give this draft an A.

The fact that Lincecum was passed up does not raise my bar for Stubbs...maybe it does for others, but not me.

You got me curious about the #7 slot, so I went back and looked at 20 years of the draft from 1984 through 2003 and it's been hit and miss. Here's the players who've been regular players, including one probably HOFer:

1989 Frank Thomas
1990 Dan Wilson (Reds)
1993 Trot Nixon
1998 Austin Kearns (Reds)
2002 Prince Fielder
2003 Nick Markakis

Of the pitchers, most were of no consequence and none, thus far, pitched in over 100 games:

1984 Mike Dunne
1999 Kyle Snyder

Six never sniffed the major leagues

1987 Chris Myers
1988 Willie Ansley
1994 Doug Million
1996 Matt White
2000 Matt Harrington
2001 Chris Smith

The rest were: Mike Campbell, 1985; Brad Brink, 1986; Joe Vitiello, 1991; Calvin Murray, 1992; Jonathan Johnson, 1995; and Dan Reichert, 1997;
2001 Chris Smith

So that's 20 years worth of picks.

Edit: Of course, while the #7 slot was mentioned, I see now that Drew Stubbs was taken in the #8 slot, so I'm not sure how the 7th slot came up.

By the way, the last several years, the #7 slot has been a decent pick:

2004 Homer Bailey (Reds)
2005 Troy Tulowitzky
2006 Clayton Kershaw
2007 Matt LaPorta

Kingspoint
07-18-2008, 03:52 PM
I have hopes he will put up a better line than that, but I feel pretty certain he can put up a .741 OPS next year as a rookie.

If his career numbers are that, it will be OK, because he's above average defensively as a Center Fielder, and above average in the Stolen Base Department. The REDS also, are not the Yankees. They can't afford to pay for All-Stars at every position. They need players that are above average for their position, which Stubbs would end up being.

kaldaniels
07-18-2008, 04:17 PM
You got me curious about the #7 slot, so I went back and looked at 20 years of the draft from 1984 through 2003 and it's been hit and miss. Here's the players who've been regular players, including one probably HOFer:

1989 Frank Thomas
1990 Dan Wilson (Reds)
1993 Trot Nixon
1998 Austin Kearns (Reds)
2002 Prince Fielder
2003 Nick Markakis

Of the pitchers, most were of no consequence and none, thus far, pitched in over 100 games:

1984 Mike Dunne
1999 Kyle Snyder

Six never sniffed the major leagues

1987 Chris Myers
1988 Willie Ansley
1994 Doug Million
1996 Matt White
2000 Matt Harrington
2001 Chris Smith

The rest were: Mike Campbell, 1985; Brad Brink, 1986; Joe Vitiello, 1991; Calvin Murray, 1992; Jonathan Johnson, 1995; and Dan Reichert, 1997;
2001 Chris Smith

So that's 20 years worth of picks.

Edit: Of course, while the #7 slot was mentioned, I see now that Drew Stubbs was taken in the #8 slot, so I'm not sure how the 7th slot came up.

By the way, the last several years, the #7 slot has been a decent pick:

2004 Homer Bailey (Reds)
2005 Troy Tulowitzky
2006 Clayton Kershaw
2007 Matt LaPorta

Yeah I botched that up. Sorry you went to the trouble. Regardless the sum of my post stays the same. Average at best comes out of the #8 spot on a year to year basis.

redsmetz
07-18-2008, 04:23 PM
Yeah I botched that up. Sorry you went to the trouble. Regardless the sum of my post stays the same. Average at best comes out of the #8 spot on a year to year basis.

Actually only 30% have amounted to much, with one future HOF'er out of that particular slot. The fact, is 30% were total busts, never even seeing the majors. The remaining 40% weren't much to write home about, although Mike Dunne had a good rookie season, but that's about it. Of course, Fielder and Markakis have a lot of career to play out yet, but thus far, not bad choices.

redsmetz
07-18-2008, 04:29 PM
Here's the list for the #8 slot since 1979.


2008 1 FrRnd 8 WhiteSox Gordon Beckham SS | | |University of Georgia (GA)
2007 1 FrRnd 8 Rockies Casey Weathers RHP| | |Vanderbilt University (TN)
2006 1 FrRnd 8 Reds Robert Stubbs OF | | |University of Texas (TX)
2005 1 FrRnd 8 Rays Wade Townsend RHP| | |Rice University (TX)
2004 1 FrRnd 8 Orioles Wade Townsend RHP| | |Rice University (TX)
2003 1 FrRnd 8 Pirates Paul Maholm LHP| 168 0 .340 0| 27-32 4.48 1.43 |Mississippi State University (MS)
2002 1 FrRnd 8 Tigers Scott Moore SS | 98 4 .665 0| |Cypress HS (Cypress, CA)
2001 1 FrRnd 8 Pirates John Van Benschoten RHP| 20 1 .482 0| 2-12 8.96 2.08 |Kent State University (OH)
2000 1 FrRnd 8 Tigers Matthew Wheatland RHP| | |Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego, CA)
1999 1 FrRnd 8 Pirates Bobby Bradley RHP| | |Wellington Community HS (Wellington Community, FL)
1998 1 FrRnd 8 Blue Jays Felipe Lopez SS |3012 67 .714 105| |Lake Brantley HS (Altamonte Springs, FL)
1997 1 FrRnd 8 Pirates J.J. Davis 1B | 106 1 .465 3| |Baldwin Park HS (Baldwin Park, CA)
1996 1 FrRnd 8 Brewers Chad Green OF | | |University of Kentucky (KY)
1995 1 FrRnd 8 Rockies Todd Helton 1B |5960 310 1.002 36| |University of Tennessee (TN)
1994 1 FrRnd 8 Twins Todd Walker 2B |4554 107 .783 66| |Louisiana State University (LA)
1993 1 FrRnd 8 Mets Kirk Presley RHP| | |Tupelo HS (Tupero, MS)
1992 1 FrRnd 8 Angels Pete Janicki RHP| | |UCLA (CA)
1991 1 FrRnd 8 Padres Joey Hamilton RHP| 339 4 .337 0| 74-73 4.44 1.42 1 |Georgia Southern University (GA)
1990 1 FrRnd 8 Indians Tim Costo SS | 134 3 .610 0| |University of Iowa (IA)
1989 1 FrRnd 8 Cubs Earl Cunningham OF | | |Lancaster HS (Lancaster, SC)
1988 1 FrRnd 8 Angels Jim Abbott LHP| 21 0 .190 0| 87-108 4.25 1.43 |University of Michigan (MI)
1987 1 FrRnd 8 Dodgers Dan Opperman RHP| | |Valley HS (Las Vegas, NV)
1986 1 FrRnd 8 Mariners Patrick Lennon SS | 189 2 .740 0| |Whiteville HS (Whiteville, NC)
1985 1 FrRnd 8 Nationals Pete Incaviglia 3B |4233 206 .758 33| |Oklahoma State University (OK)
1984 1 FrRnd 8 Twins Jay Bell SS |7398 195 .759 91| |Gonzalez Tate HS (Pensacola, FL)
1983 1 FrRnd 8 Astros Robbie Wine C | 41 0 .381 0| |Oklahoma State University (OK)
1982 1 FrRnd 8 Angels Bob Kipper LHP| 95 0 .321 0| 27-37 4.34 1.32 11 |Aurora Central Catholic HS (Aurora, IL)
1981 1 FrRnd 8 Cardinals Bob Meacham SS |1371 8 .621 58| |San Diego State University (CA)
1980 1 FrRnd 8 WhiteSox Cecil Espy OF |1248 7 .622 103| |Point Loma HS (San Diego, CA)
1979 1 FrRnd 8 Astros John Mizerock

AWA85
07-18-2008, 05:24 PM
Question for you guys, I follow Drew Stubbs numbers online but have not seen him play in person. There is a lot of talk about no power, what kind of comparisons are we talking about. Norris Hopper power, Ryan Freel Power, or what? Really hope we aren't talking Norris Hopper type hitter. Thanks in advance.

dougdirt
07-18-2008, 06:20 PM
Question for you guys, I follow Drew Stubbs numbers online but have not seen him play in person. There is a lot of talk about no power, what kind of comparisons are we talking about. Norris Hopper power, Ryan Freel Power, or what? Really hope we aren't talking Norris Hopper type hitter. Thanks in advance.

Drew has power potential. He has more than Hopper or Freel power right now. His power has been masked some by the FSL this year. I figure he is a .150-.180 isolated power type of guy in the majors for the most part, with a better peek than that.

RedEye
07-18-2008, 10:04 PM
Thanks, redsmetz. Looks like the #7 picks team pretty much blows the #8 picks team out of the water. Looks like Todd Helton is pretty much the class of the #8 team, although Jim Abbott, Jay Bell, and Todd Walker aren't bad players at all. Always kind of liked Pete Incaviglia and Cecil Espy too, but I think that's more because I have fond memories of collecting the 1987 Topps set than anything they did on the field.

redsmetz
07-19-2008, 07:19 AM
Thanks, redsmetz. Looks like the #7 picks team pretty much blows the #8 picks team out of the water. Looks like Todd Helton is pretty much the class of the #8 team, although Jim Abbott, Jay Bell, and Todd Walker aren't bad players at all. Always kind of liked Pete Incaviglia and Cecil Espy too, but I think that's more because I have fond memories of collecting the 1987 Topps set than anything they did on the field.

I think it's interesting to see the roller coaster ride drafting and developing is. It makes you realize what a crapshoot it is at times. Espy, for instance, surprised me because I'd heard of him and thought there's a good one too, but then I saw he only played eight years and had one decent season. And just now I looked at his entry on baseball-reference.com and he's another one of those shocking "he played for the Reds?" guys - his final season in 1993.

One could suggest that all of this is not a very efficient system, but the purpose all along is to find talent and then winnow it all out until you have the best. And then the best is often just a brief moment in many cases (with a broad definition of brief - tempest fuget and all that).

Highlifeman21
07-19-2008, 12:06 PM
I've been hoping hard for average.

Still waiting for anything that projects to "average".

Sub .800 OPS in AA and lower doesn't magically project to .750 OPS or better in the majors.

If Stubbs OPS's North of .700 in his rookie year (whenever that may be... probably 2011), I'll be shocked.

redhawk61
07-19-2008, 12:38 PM
Still waiting for anything that projects to "average".

Sub .800 OPS in AA and lower doesn't magically project to .750 OPS or better in the majors.

If Stubbs OPS's North of .700 in his rookie year (whenever that may be... probably 2011), I'll be shocked.
Stubbs will more than likely be up mid next year, if he continues the consistant pace he is on, 2010 at the latest.

crazyredfan40
07-19-2008, 02:18 PM
2011 sounds pretty crazy for a timeline...I think that mid next year is not out of the question but to think that he won't get the call in 2010 at all is kinda crazy...

Highlifeman21
07-20-2008, 08:25 AM
Stubbs will more than likely be up mid next year, if he continues the consistant pace he is on, 2010 at the latest.

1/2 season at AA, and then 1/2 season at AAA?

Oh yeah, that screams "ready" to me.

And I wouldn't say that he's been on a consistent pace, but rather the FO promoted him without just cause to AA to see how he would fare. None of his A numbers suggested AA was for him. I'm sure doug will cherrypick something to attempt to prove me wrong.

lollipopcurve
07-20-2008, 08:50 AM
None of his A numbers suggested AA was for him.

Really? What are the cut offs?

Or are you suggesting there may have been other criteria that would have got him promoted justifiably?

Grande Donkey
07-20-2008, 10:05 AM
Stubbs now has an .800 OPS through 91 games so far this year.

puca
07-20-2008, 10:56 AM
some will never forgive him for not being named Tim Lincecum

I wonder how many more would see value in Drew Stubbs if he were in another organization

Kingspoint
07-20-2008, 11:42 AM
1/2 season at AA, and then 1/2 season at AAA?

Oh yeah, that screams "ready" to me.

And I wouldn't say that he's been on a consistent pace, but rather the FO promoted him without just cause to AA to see how he would fare. None of his A numbers suggested AA was for him. I'm sure doug will cherrypick something to attempt to prove me wrong.

I agree with ya'. The pace he's shown throughout his minor league career shows that he still needs all of next season in the minors. And, he may spend two more years going up and down from the Majors to the Minors after that. ....and I'm one of the ones that have the most faith in Stubbs. He's the perfect type of player that would be ruined by being brought up too fast.

It seems to me that numbers are pretty inflated at Chattanooga for anyone that goes there. Let him finish the rest of the season there, and then if he doesn't falter, then start him and leave him at AAA next season all season. If he falters, then start him next year at AA.

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 12:25 PM
Highlife,
I don't need to 'cherry pick' any stats. Stats only mean so much in the minor leagues. The minor leagues are about learning and developing, not acquiring stats. The minor leagues are to get you ready for the major leagues, not so you can pile up stats if you aren't learning things. I could go through and give out stats that would tell you why Stubbs was ready for AA, but you don't really care because you don't agree so I am not going to waste the time.

princeton
07-20-2008, 01:30 PM
I wonder how many more would see value in Drew Stubbs if he were in another organization

he's not a guy that you trade for given slow career progression and uncertain offense.

but I wouldn't trade him away. first, because he gets you little, but second because this team needs a CFer to step up, and should keep several guys around in hopes that one of them does.

Highlifeman21
07-20-2008, 08:46 PM
Highlife,
I don't need to 'cherry pick' any stats. Stats only mean so much in the minor leagues. The minor leagues are about learning and developing, not acquiring stats. The minor leagues are to get you ready for the major leagues, not so you can pile up stats if you aren't learning things. I could go through and give out stats that would tell you why Stubbs was ready for AA, but you don't really care because you don't agree so I am not going to waste the time.

Actually, I'm interested as to why you think Stubbs was ready for AA when he wasn't setting the world on fire in High A.

The promotion to AA seemed to me to be one not of desperation, but rather testing the kid to see what he's made of, and to reevaluate his time table to the show.

Given Stubbs being a Top 10 1st Round Draft Pick, it's important to the Reds that he actually turns out to be something serviceable. I hope he does, but so far he's shown to be contact impaired, slightly fragile, with his only saving grace being his superior defense. Drew Stubbs is a great example why the NCAA should ban the metal bat and make them all use wood. College programs can afford the lumber, and in the process we'd get a better barometer of the player, since the college stats wouldn't be inflated b/c of the metal.

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 08:54 PM
Actually, I'm interested as to why you think Stubbs was ready for AA when he wasn't setting the world on fire in High A.
He was hitting fine. He had a strikeout rate that wasn't bad (and actually improved from his previous season), he had a walk rate that was the second best in the league and his line drive rate was best in the league. His steals were at over 75% and he was playing great defense. Yeah, his stat line didn't scream promotion, but stat lines in the minors aren't the be all end all of things. You are in the minors to learn and improve your game. Drew took his game at the plate and improved EVERYTHING from the year before fairly significanlty. His walk rate went up, strikeout rate down and line drive rate way, way up. He had shown that he had made the adjustments to that level and while the stat line didn't exactly show it, when you looked deeper at it, it was there.


College programs can afford the lumber, and in the process we'd get a better barometer of the player, since the college stats wouldn't be inflated b/c of the metal.

I think you are severely overestimating the money college baseball brings in at schools that aren't cream of the crop. I have heard the argument made that MLB should purchase the bats though in the efforts to give people in the organizations a better idea of what these guys will do with wooden bats.

SteelSD
07-20-2008, 10:16 PM
He was hitting fine. He had a strikeout rate that wasn't bad (and actually improved from his previous season), he had a walk rate that was the second best in the league and his line drive rate was best in the league. His steals were at over 75% and he was playing great defense. Yeah, his stat line didn't scream promotion, but stat lines in the minors aren't the be all end all of things. You are in the minors to learn and improve your game. Drew took his game at the plate and improved EVERYTHING from the year before fairly significanlty. His walk rate went up, strikeout rate down and line drive rate way, way up. He had shown that he had made the adjustments to that level and while the stat line didn't exactly show it, when you looked deeper at it, it was there.

You do understand that Stubbs' Line Drive rate isn't really sustainable for him, right? Last season, no qualified hitter in the National League produced a LD% higher than 24.5%. Only two MLB hitters produced a LD% higher than 26% (Michael Young, Chone Figgins) last season. The scary thing is that even with an unsustainable LD% driving an unsustainable BABIP, Stubbs' IsoP actually went down from the season prior as did his BABIP.

Here's what you really get when you really look "deeper"...

The Drew Stubbs we saw in Dayton was driven by a BABIP (.356) that was random-butt-lucky freakish when coupled with his 13% Line Drive rate. That guy was lucky to not post a sub-.700 OPS given that LD rate and his lack of true HR power. Flash forward to Sarasota and the guy saw his LD% double but his BABIP actually drops to a still-unsustainable level. When his LD% normalizes and combines itself with a non-freakish BABIP, you know what we're likely to get given Stubbs' age? A Center Field version of Rickie Weeks with a lower ceiling and floor.

Blue
07-20-2008, 10:37 PM
You do understand that Stubbs' Line Drive rate isn't really sustainable for him, right? Last season, no qualified hitter in the National League produced a LD% higher than 24.5%. Only two MLB hitters produced a LD% higher than 26% (Michael Young, Chone Figgins) last season. The scary thing is that even with an unsustainable LD% driving an unsustainable BABIP, Stubbs' IsoP actually went down from the season prior as did his BABIP.

Here's what you really get when you really look "deeper"...

The Drew Stubbs we saw in Dayton was driven by a BABIP (.356) that was random-butt-lucky freakish when coupled with his 13% Line Drive rate. That guy was lucky to not post a sub-.700 OPS given that LD rate and his lack of true HR power. Flash forward to Sarasota and the guy saw his LD% double but his BABIP actually drops to a still-unsustainable level. When his LD% normalizes and combines itself with a non-freakish BABIP, you know what we're likely to get given Stubbs' age? A Center Field version of Rickie Weeks with a lower ceiling and floor.

You're a lot smarter about this stuff than I am, but I'm not sure you can do what you've done here. How can you say that only two MLB players have that kind of LD rate, and then use that to say that Stubbs' LD rate is unsustainable at its current level in A+/AA? I'm sure there are plenty of major leaguers who would put up LD rates over 26% in A+/AA.

I'm sure I'm going wrong here somewhere. Where?

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 10:42 PM
You do understand that Stubbs' Line Drive rate isn't really sustainable for him, right? Last season, no qualified hitter in the National League produced a LD% higher than 24.5%. Only two MLB hitters produced a LD% higher than 26% (Michael Young, Chone Figgins) last season. The scary thing is that even with an unsustainable LD% driving an unsustainable BABIP, Stubbs' IsoP actually went down from the season prior as did his BABIP.

Here's what you really get when you really look "deeper"...

The Drew Stubbs we saw in Dayton was driven by a BABIP (.356) that was random-butt-lucky freakish when coupled with his 13% Line Drive rate. That guy was lucky to not post a sub-.700 OPS given that LD rate and his lack of true HR power. Flash forward to Sarasota and the guy saw his LD% double but his BABIP actually drops to a still-unsustainable level. When his LD% normalizes and combines itself with a non-freakish BABIP, you know what we're likely to get given Stubbs' age? A Center Field version of Rickie Weeks with a lower ceiling and floor.

Steel, its not that anyone expects Stubbs to maintain a 26% line drive rate. Its a simple example of the improvements he has made to his game and a reason why he can continue to improve. As for his BABIP, he is obviously going to be helped by his speed as he is likely to leg out a few extra infield hits than other guys.

As for his isolated power going down.... Florida State League.

He asked why I felt Stubbs deserved a promotion and I told him why. He had shown improvements to his game that warranted a promotion. He improved the amount of times he walked, the amount of times he struck out and the amount of times he hit the ball hard. If he continues to walk/strikeout at similar rates to what he does now and keep a strong line drive rate (even though he won't have a 26% rate, something still strong ~20% or so) he will be just fine.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 10:44 PM
You're a lot smarter about this stuff than I am, but I'm not sure you can do what you've done here. How can you say that only two MLB players have that kind of LD rate, and then use that to say that Stubbs' LD rate is unsustainable at its current level in A+/AA? I'm sure there are plenty of major leaguers who would put up LD rates over 26% in A+/AA.

I'm sure I'm going wrong here somewhere. Where?

That's sort of Steel's point. In order for him to produce as well as he has, he'd need to maintain that LD% as he advanced. It's safe to say that his LD% will drop as he moves up the levels. Where will that leave him.

I'm not ready to draw any conclusions about his power given that he was in the FSL, but it's a warning flag. The problem is not necessarily in the lack of power itself but what it portends for his plate discipline. It's a pretty rare player who can maintain a big IsoD while not hitting for any power and striking out a lot. Without power, you have to make a lot of contact or else major league pitchers will eat you alive within the strike zone.

As Stubbs starts facing pitches who can throw stuff other than fastballs in the zone, he's going to have to make a huge adjustment. As Doug has said, he's in the process of the developing, so you have to be careful not to read to much in to the stats. But the jury is still very much out.

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 10:56 PM
That's sort of Steel's point. In order for him to produce as well as he has, he'd need to maintain that LD% as he advanced. It's safe to say that his LD% will drop as he moves up the levels. Where will that leave him.
Thats not entirely accurate at all. If we assume that BABIP = LD% +.120 then he doesn't really need to keep a 26% line drive rate to produce at the same level he has this season consider his BABIP was .343 in Sarasota while his BABIP should have been ~.380, which would have pushed his OPS up (given all singles were attained in the boost on the BIP) from .774 in Sarasota to .820 if his line drive rate would have reflected normalcy to BABIP there (it would have added 8 singles). That doesn't even count for anything he may have gotten extra given his speed.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 10:59 PM
Thats not entirely accurate at all. If we assume that BABIP = LD% +.120 then he doesn't really need to keep a 26% line drive rate to produce at the same level he has this season consider his BABIP was .343 in Sarasota while his BABIP should have been ~.380, which would have pushed his OPS up (given all singles were attained in the boost on the BIP) from .774 in Sarasota to .820 if his line drive rate would have reflected normalcy to BABIP there (it would have added 8 singles). That doesn't even count for anything he may have gotten extra given his speed.

Fair enough, but on the topic of BABIP, what is the effect of league on BABIP. We know that in the majors, BABIP floats around the .290-.300. However, I imagine that due to subpar fielding and field quality, among other reasons, the average BABIP in the minors is a fair bit higher. Could we perhaps BABIP regression due simply to league advancement?

Blue
07-20-2008, 11:00 PM
Thats not entirely accurate at all. If we assume that BABIP = LD% +.120 then he doesn't really need to keep a 26% line drive rate to produce at the same level he has this season consider his BABIP was .343 in Sarasota while his BABIP should have been ~.380, which would have pushed his OPS up (given all singles were attained in the boost on the BIP) from .774 in Sarasota to .820 if his line drive rate would have reflected normalcy to BABIP there (it would have added 8 singles). That doesn't even count for anything he may have gotten extra given his speed.

Now I'm really confused. If BABIP = LD% + .120, and a player can control their LD%, doesn't that suggest that a player can control his BABIP, which runs counter to the notion that BABIP is a product of luck, the basic reason behind looking at BABIP?

dougdirt
07-20-2008, 11:10 PM
Now I'm really confused. If BABIP = LD% + .120, and a player can control their LD%, doesn't that suggest that a player can control his BABIP, which runs counter to the notion that BABIP is a product of luck, the basic reason behind looking at BABIP?

Hitters seem to be able to control it more than pitchers. While luck is always a factor, a line drive goes for a hit 72% of the time in the major leagues. Hit more line drives, your BABIP is more likely to be high. Hit like Corey Patterson and well, you see the results.

RedsManRick
07-20-2008, 11:13 PM
Hitters seem to be able to control it more than pitchers. While luck is always a factor, a line drive goes for a hit 72% of the time in the major leagues. Hit more line drives, your BABIP is more likely to be high. Hit like Corey Patterson and well, you see the results.

Doug, have you seen any career numbers on LD%? What's the distribution look like?

Blue
07-20-2008, 11:15 PM
Hitters seem to be able to control it more than pitchers. While luck is always a factor, a line drive goes for a hit 72% of the time in the major leagues. Hit more line drives, your BABIP is more likely to be high. Hit like Corey Patterson and well, you see the results.

That makes sense.

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 12:37 AM
Thats not entirely accurate at all. If we assume that BABIP = LD% +.120 then he doesn't really need to keep a 26% line drive rate to produce at the same level he has this season consider his BABIP was .343 in Sarasota while his BABIP should have been ~.380, which would have pushed his OPS up (given all singles were attained in the boost on the BIP) from .774 in Sarasota to .820 if his line drive rate would have reflected normalcy to BABIP there (it would have added 8 singles). That doesn't even count for anything he may have gotten extra given his speed.

Yeah, the problem is your assumptions. You're working backwards. Had BABIP actually been LD% + .120, then Stubbs' 2007 BABIP should have been .250.

Even using your specious methodology, Stubbs' 2007 BABIP is unsupportable. And the LD% at Sarasota is also unsupportable over time.

But do feel free to continue to produce excuses and poor analytics to support a Reds' prospect. Not like I can stop you...

Kingspoint
07-21-2008, 01:14 AM
And they are all guestimates based on a player's ability to continue working at the same pace and getting the type and quantity of instruction he's been getting over the years. but, since these factors are dynamic in and of themselves, the potential for varied results is highly probable.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 01:33 AM
Yeah, the problem is your assumptions. You're working backwards. Had BABIP actually been LD% + .120, then Stubbs' 2007 BABIP should have been .250.

Even using your specious methodology, Stubbs' 2007 BABIP is unsupportable. And the LD% at Sarasota is also unsupportable over time.

But do feel free to continue to produce excuses and poor analytics to support a Reds' prospect. Not like I can stop you...

Firstly, who said anything about 2007 BABIP other than you?

Secondly, how am I working backwards. BABIP=LD%+.120 isn't my theory or idea. Its actually widely accepted that to estimated BABIP you take LD% and add .120 to it. It doesn't always work, but its generally pretty accurate.

Thirdly, for Stubbs line drive rate of 26% to be sustainable isn't really a question. No one is suggesting it is. However you made the comment that he needed to maintain such a high LD rate to put up those numbers. I argued that it wasn't true and showed how.

Fourthly, where was anything I typed poorly analytical?

Fifthly, what does 'Not like I can stop you....' supposed to entail? Step down off your high horse. You aren't better than anyone else around here so please stop acting like you are the be all end all and if someone disagree's with you they are throwing out specious data or even false data.

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 10:40 AM
Firstly, who said anything about 2007 BABIP other than you?

If you're truly "digging deeper", when demanding that a player improved every aspect of his game versus the previous season, then the previous season needs to be reviewed.


Secondly, how am I working backwards. BABIP=LD%+.120 isn't my theory or idea. Its actually widely accepted that to estimated BABIP you take LD% and add .120 to it. It doesn't always work, but its generally pretty accurate.

BABIP may equal LD% plus anywhere between .100 to .120. Even when he first posted the idea in 2004 that LD% + .120 "generally" equalled BABIP, Dave Studeman at thehardballtimes.com could not account for league differences in any kind of reasonable way. Knowing that the actual average BABIP minus LD% range may be as low as .100 doesn't position Stubbs' 2008 as being anything resembling "unlucky" while we know for a fact that he was incredibly BABIP "lucky" in 2007.

So let's summarize again:

1. Drew Stubbs' BABIP in 2007 is unsupportable given the low LD%.
2. Drew Stubbs' BABIP in 2008 is the product of an unsupportable LD%.

Neither of those items support a contention that Drew Stubbs has somehow improved every facet of his offensive game. They're huge red flags that the lords of randomness may just be masking some serious deficiencies.


Thirdly, for Stubbs line drive rate of 26% to be sustainable isn't really a question. No one is suggesting it is. However you made the comment that he needed to maintain such a high LD rate to put up those numbers. I argued that it wasn't true and showed how.

Should Stubbs' Line Drive rate drop to normal (@18%), that puts his projected BABIP anywhere between .280 and .300. Given the same K rate as he's put up this season at Sarasota (even "improved" as it is), that leaves us with a shorthand projection of a likely Batting Average of somewhere between .218 and .234 when we add on his current HR rate. This gives us a jumping off point to produce a likely OBP using his current IsoD and the range is .322 to .339. Even giving Stubbs the benefit of the doubt by factoring in his IsoP, which is likely positively affected by an inflated LD% this season, and you have the following lines:

.218 BA/.323 OBP/.363 SLG (.686 OPS)
.234 BA/.339 OBP/.379 SLG (.719 OPS)

Not pretty. Randomly, you might get a season a bit better (especially if Stubbs can use his speed to beat out some IF hits) and, randomly, you might get a season a bit worse. And that's assuming Stubbs can hold his K rate constant while stepping up to the Show and that's a pretty big assumption.


Fourthly, where was anything I typed poorly analytical?

I think I just showed you.

HokieRed
07-21-2008, 10:58 AM
Instead of always using statistics to correct variations to the norm (an admittedly important procedure), sometimes it's interesting to consider what is going on in an individual's case when we get such widely varying--nearly inconceivable--results as the changes in Stubbs' LD rate--from 13 to 26. My conclusion from this is that we don't really know Stubbs' projectable LD rate with any precision--precisely because the variation is so wide that it suggests both ends are out of kilter. If we just halve the difference and put him at 19.5, we get a very nice player indeed (+.1 to .12=.295 to .315) But there's really not a good reason to do that. We simply need to watch him longer to see what a reasonable level is for a finally healthy, perhaps rapidly learning, somewhat contact-and-power-challenged Drew Stubbs.

lollipopcurve
07-21-2008, 11:06 AM
Somebody's going to have their assumptions punctured, however Stubbs turns out.

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 11:22 AM
If we just halve the difference and put him at 19.5, we get a very nice player indeed (+.1 to .12=.295 to .315)

Even at a BABIP of .315, the projected line would be about...

.244 BA
.349 OBP
.389 SLG

Unless Stubbs starts actually hitting the home runs I keep hearing he's supposed to hit, He'd need to hold his K rate constant while transitioning to MLB (a daunting task) and he'd need to produce yearly Line Drive rates well in excess of 20% just to project out at an OPS a smidge higher than .750.

RedsManRick
07-21-2008, 12:18 PM
For the sake of the conversation, here are the basic descriptive stats for both LD% and BABIP for all 162 qualified batters in 2007. Both distributions are roughly normal with a slight positive skew (rounded binning obscures normalcy a little bit but is necessary for graphing). The skew is expected as I'll explain below.

These are single season values. Career values would show significantly less variation and would give us a better sense of actual skill. My gut says that the single year 1 SD range is probably similar to the career 2 SD range. Suffice it to say that anybody outside of the 2 SD range is due for a regression.

Also, these are unweighted means of a cherry picked sample. The "qualified" cutoff was necessary to remove small sample size outliers. However, it also has the affect of eliminating people who stink too badly to get enough PA to qualify, which is especially evident in BABIP.

(If you are fighting for a job and get lucky and post an unusually high LD or BABIP (Jerry Hairston), you may get lots of PA and get included in the sample. If you get unlucky and post an usually low LD or BABIP ('07 Dave Ross), you likely won't get enough PA and thus aren't around to influence the mean. This means the "real" distribution is probably a bit lower, something we'd see looking at the career stats instead of single season.)

Keep in mind that these are MLB specific. Given worse defense, crappier fields, and more scrub pitchers getting lit up, it's likely that these are both higher in the minor leagues.

LD%
Mean: 18.9%
Median: 18.8%
Standard Deviation: 2.3%

We expect 68% of LD% to be in the 16.6-21.2 range and 95% in the 14.3 and 23.5. Frequency distribution in blue below.

BABIP
Mean: .316
Median: .312
Standard Deviation: .032

We expect 68% of BABIP to in the .284-.348 range and 95% in the .252-.380 range. Frequency distribution in red below.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 01:03 PM
So let's summarize again:

1. Drew Stubbs' BABIP in 2007 is unsupportable given the low LD%.
2. Drew Stubbs' BABIP in 2008 is the product of an unsupportable LD%.

Neither of those items support a contention that Drew Stubbs has somehow improved every facet of his offensive game. They're huge red flags that the lords of randomness may just be masking some serious deficiencies.
It doesn't show that at all. Again, given Stubbs line drive rate this year, his statline has actually been rather unlucky. Therefore his BABIP in 2008 isn't the product of an unsupportable LD%. 2007, the guy was really lucky. This year, not so much.




I think I just showed you.
No, you really didn't.

Also, you seem to be factoring in absolutely no improvements to his game. As if he is a finished product at the age of 23. While we can't calculate the improvements, we have certainly seen that he has made them this year and can't just figure he won't make anymore.

I still stand by what I have been saying all year. Keep up a high walk rate, a similar strikeout rate (21-24%) and a strong line drive rate (~20%) and he will be fine. The power will show up (not talking Dunn power, but .150-.175 isop).

RedsManRick
07-21-2008, 01:31 PM
So if Stubbs holds the course with slightly above average BABIP and keeps his SO rate steady as he moves up the ladder, we're looking at something a .250/.350/.400 line. You two seem to agree on that conclusion based on those assumptions.

So the question becomes whether or not we think he can keep hitting LD and keep his SO rate in the acceptable range. That .150 IsoP would mean something like 40 2B, 5 3B, and 10 HR over 600 PA.

So the question goes back to the assumptions.
- Can Stubbs maintain his SO rate?
- Can Stubbs sustain a league average or better LD%?
- Can Stubbs sustain an IsoP of .150 or greater?

An inflated BABIP due to his speed as opposed due to a strong LD% won't show up in his power, so it's likely that those two are related. And if he's not hitting a lot of LD, it's likely due to a contact issue which will show up in his SO. His speed may help him keep his batting average out of the toilet thanks to a higher average on grounders, but he's going to need to keep that LD% north of 20% if he wants a shot at an OPS in the .750 range.

camisadelgolf
07-21-2008, 01:52 PM
Some guys strike out a lot because they're not good hitters, and other guys strike out a lot, to over-simplify it, because they just do. Both Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce have struck out between 23-25% of their minor league at-bats. I'm not saying Drew Stubbs will be as productive as Jay Bruce, but at least Stubbs compensates for most of his lack of power with a high OBP and superb defense at a defense-first position.

So anyway, what's the argument about? If Stubbs sucks? If he's a bust? If the Reds are stupid? If dougdirt is stupid for thinking Stubbs might not be a bust? I ask because it seems like people are arguing just for the sake of arguing.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 01:54 PM
So anyway, what's the argument about? If Stubbs sucks? If he's a bust? If the Reds are stupid? If dougdirt is stupid for thinking Stubbs might not be a bust? I ask because it seems like people are arguing just for the sake of arguing.

I think its all of the above for the most part with a little bit in there of trying to figure out what Stubbs is.

Kingspoint
07-21-2008, 04:33 PM
Instead of always using statistics to correct variations to the norm (an admittedly important procedure), sometimes it's interesting to consider what is going on in an individual's case when we get such widely varying--nearly inconceivable--results as the changes in Stubbs' LD rate--from 13 to 26. My conclusion from this is that we don't really know Stubbs' projectable LD rate with any precision--precisely because the variation is so wide that it suggests both ends are out of kilter. If we just halve the difference and put him at 19.5, we get a very nice player indeed (+.1 to .12=.295 to .315) But there's really not a good reason to do that. We simply need to watch him longer to see what a reasonable level is for a finally healthy, perhaps rapidly learning, somewhat contact-and-power-challenged Drew Stubbs.


Different coaching with different students breeds different results.

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 07:27 PM
It doesn't show that at all. Again, given Stubbs line drive rate this year, his statline has actually been rather unlucky. Therefore his BABIP in 2008 isn't the product of an unsupportable LD%. 2007, the guy was really lucky. This year, not so much.

No, Stubbs' stat line hasn't been "rather unlucky" when we remember that normal variances aren't necessarily in line with your high-side estimation of a .120 LD%/BABIP differential.


No, you really didn't.

Also, you seem to be factoring in absolutely no improvements to his game. As if he is a finished product at the age of 23. While we can't calculate the improvements, we have certainly seen that he has made them this year and can't just figure he won't make anymore.

I still stand by what I have been saying all year. Keep up a high walk rate, a similar strikeout rate (21-24%) and a strong line drive rate (~20%) and he will be fine. The power will show up (not talking Dunn power, but .150-.175 isop).

2007 NL average IsoP was .157. 2007 AL average IsoP was .152. When your projection range puts Stubbs right about MLB average, that's not true "power". It's nothing of the sort and Stubbs has already been in the .150 range. You're projecting "improvements" that'll leave him pretty much where he has been. And you really do need to take a look at the MLB Line Drive rate leaderboards over the last few seasons. It's foolish to project a long-term LD rate of 20% for anyone. It means that you're projecting based on the idea that Stubbs will be an outlier. Not good.

You're projecting a likely ceiling that smells a whole lot like a .750 OPS. That's fine. But you don't seem to understand where the floor (and basement) of a player like that actually sits.

dougdirt
07-21-2008, 07:32 PM
How about this Steel....

You think I am wrong.

I think you are wrong.

Neither of us is going to convince the other to change their mind, just like every other time we disagree on something.

SteelSD
07-21-2008, 11:53 PM
How about this Steel....

You think I am wrong.

I think you are wrong.

Neither of us is going to convince the other to change their mind, just like every other time we disagree on something.

doug, maybe I missed something, but I didn't see anything from you last season, or after, about Stubbs' 2007 Line Drive rate either being abnormally low. I don't remember you framing that 13% LD rate as being something under Stubbs' control even though you appear to feel that Stubbs' LD rate this season is an improvement in his offensive game that can be attributed to Stubbs himself.

In fact, had I read a post with you positioning Stubbs' LD rate last season as being an outlier to the low side, I may have still mentioned that his 2007 BABIP was still abnormally high but at least I would have agreed that he projected to produce a higher LD rate going forward. Not 26%, but at least something more reasonable than 13%. Again, maybe you did point that out and I lost it in the soap opera that has become the "Drew Stubbs Watch" but LD rate normalization would have been something I'd have been 100% on board with.

And you need to remember that I'm one of only a handful of folks who still thinks that Drew Stubbs has a chance to maintain a high IsoD even though he doesn't project a high IsoP. And I don't find that your assertion of a potential MLB .150 to .175 IsoP to be unreasonable although I see the .150 IsoP as a bit higher than his likely midpoint with .175 being pretty aggressive for a hitter who's never presented himself as a power threat at any MiLB level. At some point, Stubbs has to hit some HR to push his IsoP. He hasn't and that does matter given his age and progression.

As Rick aptly noted, we actually DO agree on some things. It's just that you're comfortable working outside the realm of normalcy and it's why you've consistently over-projected many Reds prospects thus far.

osuceltic
07-22-2008, 09:19 AM
In my opinion, OPS is the wrong stat to use with a guy like Stubbs. If he can get on base at a .350ish clip, I don't care if he doesn't show any power and his slugging is low. A gold glove defensive center fielder who can lead off with a .350 OBP and steal 50 bases can play for my team anytime.

I have no idea if he can OBP .350 in the big leagues and neither does anyone else, although there are some here who would never admit that.

membengal
07-22-2008, 10:15 AM
I don't know what Drew Stubbs might be. I do know that if he is to have value, he has to find a way to keep his OBP at .350 or better. I also know that a high OBP low power CF who can defend has enormous value in the bigs. Not everything is defined by a high slugging % (although clearly it would be nice to have that too). But for Stubbs to work, and I am rooting like heck for that to happen for Cincy's sake, his OBP must remain at least .350 as he transitions to AA, AAA, and the bigs. If he can do that, then who knows what he can become.

For funsies, I looked up Brett Butler's career stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/butlebr01.shtml

He didn't break into the bigs in a regular way until he was 26, when he put up a .281/.344/.393 line. Decent steals. He had value. He careened along at those kinds of lines through age 29.

Then, at age 30, something really clicked with him, and his OBPs jumped to the .390 or better area for the most part and stayed there the remainder of his career. Obviously, Butler never hit for power, all things considered. Just as obviously, he also had enormous value in his career, even rising as high as 7th in the voting for NL MVP in 1991.

I don't mention any of that in a prediction that Stubbs will have a career even 1/100th as successful as Butler's was, just note that Butler's career is a nice reminder that IF Stubbs can continue to show a good batting eye, and find his way on base to a .350 or better clip, that he will have real value as a major leaguer. I still think he has a real chance to hold his OBPs at those levels as he moves up.

As usual, with this discussion, we shall see as it plays out.

mace
07-22-2008, 11:01 AM
Gary Pettis was a big-league regular for seven years (out of an 11-year career), during which time he played a great center field (five Gold Gloves), averaged over 40 stolen bases and batted about .240 with a .335 OBP. He never hit more than five home runs in a season.

Garry Maddox was a career .285 hitter but with only a .320 OBP. Twice, he had OBPs of .350 or more. He never hit more than 14 home runs. In his best years he averaged about 25 stolen bases. He played 15 seasons and won eight Gold Gloves.

I was thinking those might be useful comparables.

Joseph
07-22-2008, 11:13 AM
The Reds just elected some guy named Geronimo to their HoF. He had a career OPB of .325, never hit more than 10 HRs in a season and averaged about 3 per year. He didn't steal the bases that Stubbs seems like he can, but then I don't really know how Stubbs D compares to Geronimos either.

All I'm saying is that really good D can overcome being a career 258 hitter.

camisadelgolf
07-22-2008, 11:17 AM
To be fair, I don't think Geronimo makes it without being a part of the BRM.

Joseph
07-22-2008, 11:20 AM
To be fair, I don't think Geronimo makes it without being a part of the BRM.

No question at all Cam. Though it just shows that IF the Reds are smart in other areas building this team, Stubbs doesn't have to be the 'man' for them.

I know that leads right back into the argument of is he worth a top 10 pick to be a defensive specialist who might not embarrass at the plate and thats not my intention, but hopefully Stubbs will pan out and we won't have to argue this for the next decade. :)

camisadelgolf
07-22-2008, 11:46 AM
No question at all Cam. Though it just shows that IF the Reds are smart in other areas building this team, Stubbs doesn't have to be the 'man' for them.

I know that leads right back into the argument of is he worth a top 10 pick to be a defensive specialist who might not embarrass at the plate and thats not my intention, but hopefully Stubbs will pan out and we won't have to argue this for the next decade. :)

I think that's where a lot of the disagreement comes from. Consider where Stubbs was drafted, a lot of people are expecting him to be the 'man'. Personally, it's not how I choose to look at it, but it'd be nice if those who do choose to see it that way at least gave it some time to see if Stubbs can justify the Reds' decision.

Puffy
07-22-2008, 11:55 AM
It is a different game from when Geronimo, Maddox, Paul Blair and even Gary Pettis played.

lollipopcurve
07-22-2008, 11:56 AM
Consider where Stubbs was drafted, a lot of people are expecting him to be the 'man'.

I think it's been well established that expecting someone to be the man simply because he was the eighth player taken in a draft is folly. If he becomes a solid contributor it's a good pick.

kpresidente
07-22-2008, 12:09 PM
It is a different game from when Geronimo, Maddox, Paul Blair and even Gary Pettis played.

Yeah, but a leadoff hitter still bats behind the pitcher and the rest of the hapless bottom of the order, meaning SLG% still isn't very important at that spot.

That being said, didn't I read somewhere that Stubbs has traditionally struggled when batting first?

camisadelgolf
07-22-2008, 12:30 PM
That being said, didn't I read somewhere that Stubbs has traditionally struggled when batting first?

Yeah, that's true, and it's most likely not a case of small sample size.

SteelSD
07-23-2008, 12:10 AM
In my opinion, OPS is the wrong stat to use with a guy like Stubbs. If he can get on base at a .350ish clip, I don't care if he doesn't show any power and his slugging is low. A gold glove defensive center fielder who can lead off with a .350 OBP and steal 50 bases can play for my team anytime.

I have no idea if he can OBP .350 in the big leagues and neither does anyone else, although there are some here who would never admit that.

There's a good deal of irony associated with you post. First, you claim you have no idea whether or not Stubbs might produce a .350 MLB OBP, but you seem sure that he'll play "Gold Glove" defense, which is something also outside your ability to project.

And you hate Adam Dunn's offensive game. Drew Stubbs has produced a solid BB rate and you sure don't like a BB-heavy OBP. Yet, apparently you like the fact that Stubbs can steal a base while producing a potentially lower OBP than Dunn and with a whole lot lower SLG. But if you don't like Walks, which aren't as good as Hits, why would you possibly appreciate Stolen Bases when we know that a base acquired via SB isn't nearly the same value as a base acquired via a Hit?

You're contradicting yourself many times over.

SteelSD
07-23-2008, 12:13 AM
Yeah, but a leadoff hitter still bats behind the pitcher and the rest of the hapless bottom of the order, meaning SLG% still isn't very important at that spot.

That being said, didn't I read somewhere that Stubbs has traditionally struggled when batting first?

SLG is important at every slot. It's one of the reasons Rickey Henderson was one of the best leadoff hitters of all time. Bases acquired without risking an Out are geometrically more valuable than bases acquired while risking an Out.

kaldaniels
07-23-2008, 01:03 AM
There's a good deal of irony associated with you post. First, you claim you have no idea whether or not Stubbs might produce a .350 MLB OBP, but you seem sure that he'll play "Gold Glove" defense, which is something also outside your ability to project.

And you hate Adam Dunn's offensive game. Drew Stubbs has produced a solid BB rate and you sure don't like a BB-heavy OBP. Yet, apparently you like the fact that Stubbs can steal a base while producing a potentially lower OBP than Dunn and with a whole lot lower SLG. But if you don't like Walks, which aren't as good as Hits, why would you possibly appreciate Stolen Bases when we know that a base acquired via SB isn't nearly the same value as a base acquired via a Hit?

You're contradicting yourself many times over.

Just playing devil's advocate here, but isn't defensive skills just something you have or you don't. Its not like the balls hit in the bigs (harder and farther, no doubt) are as proportionally different as the increase in pitching skills once you get to the show.

I'd just argue defensive skills would be easier to project than offensive stats.

757690
07-23-2008, 01:11 AM
SLG is important at every slot. It's one of the reasons Rickey Henderson was one of the best leadoff hitters of all time. Bases acquired without risking an Out are geometrically more valuable than bases acquired while risking an Out.

Slugging is important in every slot, just as OBP is important in every spot, just as speed is important in every spot, just as bat control is important in every spot...

But at some slots some stats are more important than others. In the leadoff position, OBP is more important than SLG. Are you saying that Pete Rose, Maury Wills, Brett Butler, Otis Nixon, Willie Wilson, Vince Coleman, and Davey Lopes were bad leadoff hitters because they had low SLG? (Okay, some were bad leadoff hitters because they couldn't get on base, but that is beside the point.) Of course they weren't as good as Henderson, and of course they would be better if they did have higher SLG., but they didn't need to have a high SLG in order to be productive. If Stubbs could post a .350 OBP, he will be a solid major league leadoff hitter, even if he SLG .350. If he SLG .450 even better, but he does not need to in order to be a productive leadoff hitter.

As to your second point about bases and risking outs. Except for home runs, extending a hit into a double or triple is risking an out. Every time a runner goes from one base to another, he is risking an out. The same risk applies if the runner is extending his own hit, or trying to reach another base due to a hit from another batter. I am not sure what your point is in this matter. If your point is that hitting a home run is better than any other hit, I will grant you that point, but I am not sure what it has to do with Stubbs and leading off, especially since most leadoff hitters get most of their SLG from doubles and triples. And if a leadoff hitter is hitting a lot of home runs, shouldn't he be batting 3rd or 4th?

Highlifeman21
07-23-2008, 06:01 AM
If Stubbs were playing for the Reds right now, he should bat anywhere between 7th and 9th.

His ability to draw the free pass is his only saving grace to combat his contact issues.

Dan
07-23-2008, 08:15 AM
Here's the thing about Stubbs, and why I think he'll either very likely not make the majors, or if he does he won't be more than a role player. If you look at his overall stats, you don't see one of two things: domination at any level, or improvement from one level to the next. His stats are remarkably similar.

Contrast that to someone like Todd Frazier who dominated low-A and has improved and is starting to dominate hi-A. Same thing with Soto, but one level lower, and same thing with Valaika, but one level higher. We also saw the same thing from players like Bruce and Encarnacion.

Stubbs isn't getting better, and when/if he reaches the majors he's going to be eaten alive. I wish it wasn't the case, and I hope he does find success, but I most definitely wouldn't count on it.

fearofpopvol1
07-23-2008, 09:50 AM
Here's the thing about Stubbs, and why I think he'll either very likely not make the majors, or if he does he won't be more than a role player. If you look at his overall stats, you don't see one of two things: domination at any level, or improvement from one level to the next. His stats are remarkably similar.

Contrast that to someone like Todd Frazier who dominated low-A and has improved and is starting to dominate hi-A. Same thing with Soto, but one level lower, and same thing with Valaika, but one level higher. We also saw the same thing from players like Bruce and Encarnacion.

Stubbs isn't getting better, and when/if he reaches the majors he's going to be eaten alive. I wish it wasn't the case, and I hope he does find success, but I most definitely wouldn't count on it.

You don't think moving up each level and putting up the same (or slightly better) numbers means you're improving? This would imply that you think each level in the minors is equal.

osuceltic
07-23-2008, 10:04 AM
There's a good deal of irony associated with you post. First, you claim you have no idea whether or not Stubbs might produce a .350 MLB OBP, but you seem sure that he'll play "Gold Glove" defense, which is something also outside your ability to project.

And you hate Adam Dunn's offensive game. Drew Stubbs has produced a solid BB rate and you sure don't like a BB-heavy OBP. Yet, apparently you like the fact that Stubbs can steal a base while producing a potentially lower OBP than Dunn and with a whole lot lower SLG. But if you don't like Walks, which aren't as good as Hits, why would you possibly appreciate Stolen Bases when we know that a base acquired via SB isn't nearly the same value as a base acquired via a Hit?

You're contradicting yourself many times over.

I'm not sure about anything with Stubbs. But IF he can produce a .350 OBP, steal 50 bases and play great defense in CF, then he'll be a hell of an asset. I don't know if he can do those things and neither do you. But you don't know that he can't do those things either.

I don't hate Adam Dunn's game. I don't have a problem with a BB-heavy OBP for a guy at the top of the order who can run the bases, steal a base, and spark the offense after drawing a walk. The thing that gets lost when you dismiss those 50 steals is all the other extra bases a guy with that kind of speed collects. How many times does he go first-to-third? How many times does he score from first on a double? How many DPs does he avoid? How many times does he score from third on a shallow sac fly?

I'm not wild about a BB-heavy OBP for a guy in the middle of the order, and I'm not wild about moving that guy to the top of the order when he's a station-to-station baserunner.

This isn't rocket science and it's not reinventing the wheel. I believe there are job descriptions for each spot in the order. BB-driven OBP coupled with speed/baserunning at the top of the order is more valuable than BB-driven OBP in the middle of the order. For middle of the order hitters I look at useless, old, outdated batting average coupled with slugging. If they also draw a lot of walks, great. But that's true of any spot. In some spots it's a necessity (tablesetters), and in others it's a nice complement to other, more important skills (slugging, BA for 3-5 hitters). A BB-driven OBP loses value the further down the order it goes, especially if the guy is a station-to-station baserunner.

Now, in this perfect, theoretical world stacked with .400 OBP hitters 1-9 where baserunning and defense don't matter, I'm sure you're right. A guy like Stubbs (who may or may not be what we're discussing) has little value. But in a real baseball game, a slap-hitting, high-OBP center fielder with great speed is a pretty good weapon.

mace
07-23-2008, 10:30 AM
I'm not sure about anything with Stubbs. But IF he can produce a .350 OBP, steal 50 bases and play great defense in CF, then he'll be a hell of an asset. I don't know if he can do those things and neither do you. But you don't know that he can't do those things either.

I don't hate Adam Dunn's game. I don't have a problem with a BB-heavy OBP for a guy at the top of the order who can run the bases, steal a base, and spark the offense after drawing a walk. The thing that gets lost when you dismiss those 50 steals is all the other extra bases a guy with that kind of speed collects. How many times does he go first-to-third? How many times does he score from first on a double? How many DPs does he avoid? How many times does he score from third on a shallow sac fly?

I'm not wild about a BB-heavy OBP for a guy in the middle of the order, and I'm not wild about moving that guy to the top of the order when he's a station-to-station baserunner.

This isn't rocket science and it's not reinventing the wheel. I believe there are job descriptions for each spot in the order. BB-driven OBP coupled with speed/baserunning at the top of the order is more valuable than BB-driven OBP in the middle of the order. For middle of the order hitters I look at useless, old, outdated batting average coupled with slugging. If they also draw a lot of walks, great. But that's true of any spot. In some spots it's a necessity (tablesetters), and in others it's a nice complement to other, more important skills (slugging, BA for 3-5 hitters). A BB-driven OBP loses value the further down the order it goes, especially if the guy is a station-to-station baserunner.

Now, in this perfect, theoretical world stacked with .400 OBP hitters 1-9 where baserunning and defense don't matter, I'm sure you're right. A guy like Stubbs (who may or may not be what we're discussing) has little value. But in a real baseball game, a slap-hitting, high-OBP center fielder with great speed is a pretty good weapon.

Bravo. I love baseball metrics, and have for a long time. I was a proponent of OBP long before it became the rage. But it seems lately that OBP has become a caricature of itself. Celtic says it well. It has its place at the top of the order and, when based on walks, lessens in value as you get into the RBI slots. I'd disagree slightly in that I think it may regain some usefulness at the bottom of the order, when, say, the No. 8 hitter reaches first and allows the pitcher to sacrifice. As all of that applies to Dunn, I'm in accord with the above. I like Dunn. I just get frustrated when he's continually asked to drive in a runner from second or third, because that's not his thing and he shouldn't be placed in a position where it's at a premium. (I'd like him No. 3, but that's another and too-familiar discussion.) But yes, walks are very good when they put a guy like Stubbs on base, with his speed, in front of . . . well, that's a spot where I ultimately see Jay Bruce, Joey Votto, perhaps Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, Juan Francisco, Neftali Soto . . .

flyer85
07-23-2008, 10:50 AM
Stubbs walks will dry up if he can't hit for power when he gets to the majors. Man is a walking red flag.

dougdirt
07-23-2008, 10:56 AM
Stubbs will be fine. He is still developing his game and continues to make dramatic improvements to his overall game.

TheBigLebowski
07-23-2008, 11:08 AM
Stubbs will be fine. He is still developing his game and continues to make dramatic improvements to his overall game.

Probably the most succinct rebuttal in this entire debate.

flyer85
07-23-2008, 11:09 AM
Looking back at a couple of current Reds OFs and their move to the majors(Dunn, Bruce) ... both guys with far more impressive minor league numbers(better average, much better slugging, lower Ks) at a younger age than Stubbs.

What happens when you get to the majors is you find that pitchers do three things much much better ... command the fastball, throw offspeed pitches for strikes and change speeds. Thus they have the ability to exploit issues that hitters may have.

Both Dunn and Bruce experienced a sizable drop over minor league performance when they reached the majors(nothing surprising there, most do).

With Dunn pitchers found he had contact issues and prodigious power, the fact that pitchers have a reason not to challenge him is what accounts for his high walk total.

Bruce came up and immediately got challenged with fastballs to all quadrants, pitchers have discovered that Bruce can handle fastballs anywhere in the strike zone. Since then they have adjusted and discovered that he is a sucker for off speed pitches down and out of the strike zone(breaking balls down and in and changeups away). He has really struggled the past month and has a K rate(K/PA) basically the same as Dunn.

With Stubbs, he obviously has issues, middling BA, low SLG, high K rate are indicators that there are problems with his swing. This from a guy who has been old for his level at every stage. Unless he greatly improves as a hitter(while possible it isn't very likely) and gets rid of his problems he is going to be eaten alive by major league pitchers. The Ks will skyrocket and the walks will disappear.

flyer85
07-23-2008, 11:10 AM
Probably the most succinct rebuttal in this entire debate.it was hyperbole at its finest.

Dan
07-23-2008, 11:18 AM
You don't think moving up each level and putting up the same (or slightly better) numbers means you're improving? This would imply that you think each level in the minors is equal.

I'm saying that the upper echelon players, which people are claiming Stubbs will be, DO improve as they move up, and eventually come to dominate the level they're at. Stubbs just hasn't shown that 'something extra', that ability to get that gork, that "groundball with ahheeyyyeezzzz" and dominate. And isn't that what you want out of a first round pick, for him to dominate? Bailey's done it to an extent; Bruce was destroying AAA when he was called up and is actually holding his own in the majors.

SteelSD
07-23-2008, 11:23 AM
But at some slots some stats are more important than others. In the leadoff position, OBP is more important than SLG.

OBP is more important than SLG in any lineup position if we're simply comparing the value of those. However, SLG is not somehow less important in the leadoff slot than it is in another lineup slot. Secondary base acquisition via a Stolen Base is thoroughly trumped by secondary bases acquired via Base Hit in every lineup slot. While speed is a nice supplemental talent, it simply can't come close to replicating the value of real SLG.

Kc61
07-23-2008, 11:27 AM
With Stubbs, he obviously has issues, middling BA, low SLG, high K rate are indicators that there are problems with his swing. This from a guy who has been old for his level at every stage. Unless he greatly improves as a hitter(while possible it isn't very likely) and gets rid of his problems he is going to be eaten alive by major league pitchers. The Ks will skyrocket and the walks will disappear.

It is rather amazing how much credit some hitters get for taking walks. Traditionally, a batter walks when the pitcher has no control. Now, today, taking walks has been elevated to high art. I think the truth is somewhere in between.

Adam Dunn is a home run hitter who also walks. That's fine. He has a key offensive skill and, secondarily, has a good batting eye and gets walks. Since he isn't a contact hitter, his walks essentially replace base hits for him and results in a good combination of long balls and BBs.

But if the ability to walk is a hitter's principal offensive attribute, then major league pitchers will catch up to it. Eventually, the guy won't walk because pitchers will challenge him.

For Stubbs to keep up his good OBP in the major leagues, he will have to show himself to have a potent bat, either hitting for power or hitting for average. If he does, then his batting eye will result in walks and a good OBP. If he has the eye, but not doesn't frighten anybody with his bat, he likely won't succeed.

So I wouldn't put too much stock in Stubbs' minor league OBP. It's a good thing, but it doesn't replace hitting the ball. And it doesn't necessarily translate to the major leagues.

Scrap Irony
07-23-2008, 11:31 AM
By Steel SD
While speed is a nice supplemental talent, it simply can't come close to replicating the value of real SLG.


Why not? If Stubbs steals 50 bases a year, that's 50 extra bases you could add on top of his SLG and OPS. Assuming an 80% success rate, wouldn't Stubbs' speed correlate to a higher SLG. In short, does it matter how a player acquires bases or that he does?

RedsManRick
07-23-2008, 12:03 PM
Why not? If Stubbs steals 50 bases a year, that's 50 extra bases you could add on top of his SLG and OPS. Assuming an 80% success rate, wouldn't Stubbs' speed correlate to a higher SLG. In short, does it matter how a player acquires bases or that he does?

But you can't ignore those 10 outs due to caught stealing. You need to subtract that right out of his OBP and SLG. All told, each CS erases the value of about 3 stolen bases. So in that scenario, you're left with 10 net extra bases, none of which advanced anybody else besides the runner (as opposed to SLG which advances all base runners).

Sure, those 10 net extra bases add a bit to his value, as do other extra bases acquired (e.g. first to third). But as Steel points out, the value of those additional bases pales in comparison to OBP or SLG itself. If you could change 5 doubles for homers, you've added more value than stealing 50 bases at an 80% clip.

SB can be the cherry on top, but in terms of actual run production, they are just a small piece of the picture.

flyer85
07-23-2008, 12:09 PM
Why not? If Stubbs steals 50 bases a year, that's 50 extra bases you could add on top of his SLG and OPS. Assuming an 80% success rate, wouldn't Stubbs' speed correlate to a higher SLG. In short, does it matter how a player acquires bases or that he does?because a 70-75% success rate is the break even point. If he steals at 80% clip, meaning 50SB 12CS and using 70 as a break even it means that those steals are worth about a total of 6 bases over not running at all.

flyer85
07-23-2008, 12:11 PM
But if the ability to walk is a hitter's principal offensive attribute, then major league pitchers will catch up to it. all depends on why the hitter is walking ... is a hitter walking because the pitchers can't throw strikes (likely the case of High A pitchers) or don't want to throw strikes(likely the case of Dunn in the majors).


For Stubbs to keep up his good OBP in the major leagues, he will have to show himself to have a potent bat, either hitting for power or hitting for average... it's hitting for power, if your only a singles hitter the pitcher has no reason not to challenge the hitter.

Highlifeman21
07-23-2008, 12:40 PM
Stubbs will be fine. He is still developing his game and continues to make dramatic improvements to his overall game.

doug, what is your definition of "dramatic improvements"?

While we're at it, what is your definition of "developing"?

And lastly, how are you defining "fine"?

medford
07-23-2008, 12:57 PM
I find it interesting that 2-3 pages ago, Doug basically said "lets agree to disagree", but apparently was the only one willing to do so. Ironically, my thought just prior to getting to that thread was "why don't each side just agree to disagree, and move on". I guess the gravitional pull b/w Stubbs has real value, and Stubbs was a stupid pick is too great to allow either side to look the other way.

Personally, I see valid points on both sides. In a peferct world, Stubbs would be a potential middle of the order hitter w/ GG defense, a strong sense of civic duty and a true humanitarian. Short of that, all I really care is if Stubbs can help the Reds organization win baseball games while keeping his nose relatively clean.

Stubbs has 1 skill that is sorely missing from this organization, and has been missing for years. Speed (and hopefully smart speed). The Reds haven't had a real speedster in the regular starting lineup since when? Dieon? (Freel was never a regular in my mind, so doesn't count). The Reds haven't had a "smart" basestealer since when? Barry Larkin? In the meantime, we've seen the likes of guys who were either poor at running the bases, or too slow to effectively run the bases in instill much fear into the opposing teams. Griffey, Kearns, Dunn, Casey, Wily Mo, Edwin, Dimitri, etc... The only regular I can think of that comes remotely close to a solid combination of speed and "smarts" on the basebaths was Felipe. Felipe definently had the speed, but he often lacked the smarts.

To me, this has been a great contributer to the Reds offense continually underperforming each season. Its easy to win when you hit 4+ homeruns a game like the Reds are capable of hitting, its much tougher when the long balls aren't travelling quite long enough. If Stubbs could obp at .350, play GG defense and provide a true threat on the basepaths, I think that would go a looooonnnng way towards boosting this offense. There is not a single current Red that would give me much pause if I was an opposing pitcher when they were on the basepaths. I'll say this, I think you'd stand a better shot at winning w/ a lineup full of a Bill Butler/Pete Rose type player, than you would w/ a lineup filled w/ an Adam Dunn type player. The combination of both types of players in the right spot in the lineup is what makes an offense truely special.

Stubbs may not be the player many of us hoped to draft that season, but I still think he has real value and a shot to help the major league club one day. So he's not Tim Lincecum, I get that, I'm over that. There is nothing the Reds can do about that today, lets see how they can develop stubbs.

flyer85
07-23-2008, 01:03 PM
Drew Stubbs MLEs for his stay in Sarasota are

.212BA .306OBP .356SLG for a 662 OPS

757690
07-23-2008, 01:39 PM
OBP is more important than SLG in any lineup position if we're simply comparing the value of those. However, SLG is not somehow less important in the leadoff slot than it is in another lineup slot. Secondary base acquisition via a Stolen Base is thoroughly trumped by secondary bases acquired via Base Hit in every lineup slot. While speed is a nice supplemental talent, it simply can't come close to replicating the value of real SLG.

So you are saying that Pete Rose is overrated because he did not have a good SLG? I am sorry, but SLG is less important in the leadoff spot, just as it is more important in the cleanup spot. They both are important, but you want a balanced lineup. You want high OBP guys at the top, and high SLG in the middle of the lineup.

Are you saying that it is just as good to bat Longoria first and Iwamura cleanup as the other way around?

And stolen bases have nothing to do with this argument.

dougdirt
07-23-2008, 02:08 PM
Drew Stubbs MLEs for his stay in Sarasota are

.212BA .306OBP .356SLG for a 662 OPS

Sure, but he didn't step into GABP the day he left Sarasota so the relevance of that is about 0. No one in this thread is suggesting Stubbs is ready today to step onto the major league field and produce at an acceptable rate.

RedsManRick
07-23-2008, 02:12 PM
Stubbs has 1 skill that is sorely missing from this organization, and has been missing for years. Speed (and hopefully smart speed). The Reds haven't had a real speedster in the regular starting lineup since when? Dieon? (Freel was never a regular in my mind, so doesn't count). The Reds haven't had a "smart" basestealer since when? Barry Larkin? In the meantime, we've seen the likes of guys who were either poor at running the bases, or too slow to effectively run the bases in instill much fear into the opposing teams. Griffey, Kearns, Dunn, Casey, Wily Mo, Edwin, Dimitri, etc... The only regular I can think of that comes remotely close to a solid combination of speed and "smarts" on the basebaths was Felipe. Felipe definitely had the speed, but he often lacked the smarts.

To me, this has been a great contribute to the Reds offense continually underperforming each season. Its easy to win when you hit 4+ homeruns a game like the Reds are capable of hitting, its much tougher when the long balls aren't travelling quite long enough. If Stubbs could obp at .350, play GG defense and provide a true threat on the basepaths, I think that would go a looooonnnng way towards boosting this offense. There is not a single current Red that would give me much pause if I was an opposing pitcher when they were on the basepaths. I'll say this, I think you'd stand a better shot at winning w/ a lineup full of a Bill Butler/Pete Rose type player, than you would w/ a lineup filled w/ an Adam Dunn type player. The combination of both types of players in the right spot in the lineup is what makes an offense truely special.



Runs SB 20+ SB
00 5th 7th Reese 27
01 12th 4th Reese 25
02 9th 3rd Boone 32
03 13th 6th
04 10th 10th Freel 37
05 1st 10th Freel 36
06 9th 3rd Freel 37, Phillips 25, Lopez 23
07 7th 8th Phillips 32
08 9th 8th Phillips 20 (Hairston 15)

I'm sorry, but there's just not much correlation between speed and run scoring at the team level. This decade, our best offense, in 2004, was 10th in the league in SB. Our best SB seasons, '01, '02, and '06, were paired with 2 9th places and a 12th in run scoring. Stealing lots of bases doesn't mean scoring lots more runs.

As for not having a "real speedster", other than for aesthetics, who cares? Deion had a career .319 OBP - no amount of SB can offset that. As for smart, BP has a career 79% sucess rate. Larkin was at 83% for his career. That's what, 1 CS difference per year? Good base running certainly helps, and Larkin was among the best, but you don't need to steal bags to add value on the bases.

Fear and speed don't score runs. Guys on base and guys knocking 'em around the bases do.

Stubbs OBPing .350: helps the offense a lot.
Stubbs playing GG defense in CF: no impact on the offense.
Stubbs being a "true threat" on the basepaths: helps the offense a tiny bit.

This isn't really a matter of opinion. The nature of run scoring has been analyzed to death and the reality is that while good base running helps, it's a pretty minor factor in the big picture. No amount of good base running can offset a lack of OBP or SLG.

Offensively speaking, a team full of Adam Dunn's would outscore a team full of Pete Rose's pretty handedly. However, because both Dunns and Roses are pretty rare, it's not an either or decision. It's not Dunn or Stubbs -- it's Stubbs or Patterson. A .350 OBP, gold glove defender who could steal a bunch of bases at a high percentage would be an extremely valuable and welcomed addition

Whether or not that's the player Stubbs becomes is still an open question.

medford
07-23-2008, 02:54 PM
Rick, I forgot about Phillips, and would definently put him into the smart basestealer catagory. However, I threw Freel out as a Non-regular, and neither Boone nor Reese struck me as big time base stealing threats. I'm thinking more along the lines of 40+ SB.

I agree that a team full of Dunns would score more, I think they'd win a lot of 12-6 games, but I think they'd lose a lot of games 3-1, while a team full of Pete Roses would never win a 12-11 type game, but would win more than their share of 3-1 type games. Either way, I don't think either approach would give you a division championship, I just like the consistancy that I'd expect out of an all pete rose type lineup. But the point I was trying to make, which you alluded to as well, is that it takes both types of players w/n an offense to make that offense truely special. Guys that can slober the ball out of the park, and guys that can generate some runs by stealing bases or taking the extra base on a single. It appears that Stubbs will have to be the later part if he wants to succeed on the MLB level, and if he does, then I think he has a ton of value. To me, it just seems that too many people focus on what Stubbs can't or hasen't done to date, and don't appreciate the skills that he may one day brings to the Reds lineup.

PS I'll take a lineup of all JR Griffey in their prime types and run away the division each year :)

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2008, 03:20 PM
Doug or anyone else who has physically watched him play since he left Dayton, has he continued to choke up on the bat?

dougdirt
07-23-2008, 03:26 PM
Doug or anyone else who has physically watched him play since he left Dayton, has he continued to choke up on the bat?

He might have for a little bit of time, but he is not doing it anymore. With that said, there might be a slew of reasons he isn't doing it anymore.

Nugget
07-23-2008, 03:30 PM
[/QUOTE] Offensively speaking, a team full of Adam Dunn's would outscore a team full of Pete Rose's pretty handedly.
[/QUOTE]

Depends on what kind of day you caught the Adam Dunn's. I think you said it all you need all types to build a winning team and over a 162 game year you might find that it evens itself out.

RedsManRick
07-23-2008, 03:47 PM
The thing is medford, you can score a lot runs without running the bases very well if you get on base and slug. If you run like the wind but don't get on base and/or don't slug, you aren't going to score many runs.

Pete Rose is an interesting example because he got on base 38% of the time and put up some very good SLG% during his peak. He actually cost the Reds runs on bases thanks to all of his caught stealings. The hustle looked good, but it didn't generate very much offense compared to what he did with a bat in his hands. But even looking at guys who legitimately added runs on the bases, it's important not to lump Rose, or guys like Morgan or Larkin in with guys Deion Sanders, Juan Pierre, Willy Tavares, and Michael Bourne. That latter group of guys simply don't help an offense. Juan Pierre has been the best baserunner in the game over the last 5 years and that only boosts his run production by about 10 runs year -- bringing his overall run production to below average, just up from barely above replacement.

The very elite offenses do everything well, including running the bases. But we shouldn't pretend like an offense is a three legged stool of on base, power, and speed. Having speed is better than not having it. Being able to run the bases well will add runs to your offense. However, there's virtually no time in which you gain runs by trading away on base percentage or slugging for it.

Running the bases particularly well as a team might add 25-30 runs to an offense that scores around 750-800 runs, a 4% boost. Helpful? Most certainly. Crucial? No.

Grande Donkey
07-23-2008, 03:56 PM
Stubbs has been looking great. Hitting the ball hard, playing as good or better than advertised defensively and has been great running the bases. A guy that watches him play everyday thinks he is going to be a starter in the majors and I will take his word for it.

fearofpopvol1
07-23-2008, 06:19 PM
I'm saying that the upper echelon players, which people are claiming Stubbs will be, DO improve as they move up, and eventually come to dominate the level they're at. Stubbs just hasn't shown that 'something extra', that ability to get that gork, that "groundball with ahheeyyyeezzzz" and dominate. And isn't that what you want out of a first round pick, for him to dominate? Bailey's done it to an extent; Bruce was destroying AAA when he was called up and is actually holding his own in the majors.

I actually don't think anyone was claiming he'll be an upper-echelon player. In fact, I think very few people think that realistically. The big argument is whether he'll be a bust or not and whether he'll maintain similar stats in the majors that he has accomplished in the minors.

Make no doubt about it, Stubbs is the biggest lightening rod I've ever seen on this board. If you count up all the views on Stubbs' threads, it by far exceeds any other topic in this form.

SteelSD
07-23-2008, 06:36 PM
So you are saying that Pete Rose is overrated because he did not have a good SLG? I am sorry, but SLG is less important in the leadoff spot, just as it is more important in the cleanup spot. They both are important, but you want a balanced lineup. You want high OBP guys at the top, and high SLG in the middle of the lineup.

Are you saying that it is just as good to bat Longoria first and Iwamura cleanup as the other way around?

There isn't a single lineup slot where Slugging Percentage becomes less important than another lineup slot. Using your Rays' example, Evan Longoria would be the best leadoff hitter on that team. He'd also be the best #2, #3, #4, so on and so forth. The fact that Iwamura is leading off is due to a deficiency in Iwamura's game- not the fact that he's capable of performing some kind of special duty required to fit only the leadoff slot. There's simply no additional value that can be assigned to Iwamura's game because he happens to take the first PA of each game. Ditto Drew Stubbs should he continue along the path he's been walking.

BTW, two things. First, repeatedly asking "Are you saying..." isn't a viable debate tactic. What I'm saying is what I've said and I've been clear. Secondly, where did you get the idea that Pete Rose didn't post solid SLG numbers? From age 24 through age 38, Rose's Slugging Percentage was below league average exactly ZERO times and while age-prime, Rose finished 8th and 9th in the NL in SLG. To use Rose as your prime example of a high-OBP/low-SLG hitter isn't at all appropriate given Rose's actual performance.


And stolen bases have nothing to do with this argument.

Sure they do. When we're talking about speed players, Stolen Bases will always factor in because they'll always be asked to steal bases. That impacts value. Going back to your Pete Rose example, Rick has already aptly noted that Rose's value was actually somewhat suppressed because he was a poor base stealer. While other functional speed behavior (going first-to-third on a single for example) is nice, but the value of that behavior is still firmly throttled by the value of base acquisition via true SLG.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2008, 06:56 PM
He might have for a little bit of time, but he is not doing it anymore. With that said, there might be a slew of reasons he isn't doing it anymore.

That right there says alot to me. The only time as a pro he has had sustained above avg performance he was choking up. That's a shame he quit doing it. The good news though is that he could go back to that once he realizes he has to (IMO). The bad news is that we have yet another ballplayer who doesn't want to do what's necc. to be as good as he can be. He was bullheaded about the change in the 1st place even though it mad him better and apparently he would much rather feel comfortable than be good.

dougdirt
07-23-2008, 07:13 PM
That right there says alot to me. The only time as a pro he has had sustained above avg performance he was choking up. That's a shame he quit doing it. The good news though is that he could go back to that once he realizes he has to (IMO). The bad news is that we have yet another ballplayer who doesn't want to do what's necc. to be as good as he can be. He was bullheaded about the change in the 1st place even though it mad him better and apparently he would much rather feel comfortable than be good.

Except thats not even close to being accurate. Last season before he began choking up, he had 2 months of an .850 OPS of better, including his best month of the year where he posted a .925 OPS (he posted a .905 OPS the month he choked up). Then this year in April when he posted a .944 OPS in Sarasota and July so far between Sarasota and Chattanooga he has posted a .377/.463/.604 line so far for a 1.067 OPS this month. He had 1 good month while choking up and then the season ended. It wasn't his best month of the year and it wasn't close to being better than 2 different months he has put up this year. So lets stop with the 'it made him better' stuff. The month before he started it was his best month of the year last year and he has since had 2 better months this year.

757690
07-23-2008, 07:29 PM
There isn't a single lineup slot where Slugging Percentage becomes less important than another lineup slot. Using your Rays' example, Evan Longoria would be the best leadoff hitter on that team. He'd also be the best #2, #3, #4, so on and so forth. The fact that Iwamura is leading off is due to a deficiency in Iwamura's game- not the fact that he's capable of performing some kind of special duty required to fit only the leadoff slot. There's simply no additional value that can be assigned to Iwamura's game because he happens to take the first PA of each game. Ditto Drew Stubbs should he continue along the path he's been walking.

I agree with you that Langoria makes the best leadoff hitter. However, the fact that Iwamura has little value outside the leadoff slot does not address whether or not he needs a high SLG to be a good leadoff hitter. I agree it is better for a leadoff hitter to have a high SLG, but is it necessary for him to be a productive leadoff hitter? That is the question that is relevant to Stubbs. And if it is not necessary, than it is less important in the lead off slot.


BTW, two things. First, repeatedly asking "Are you saying..." isn't a viable debate tactic.

Actually, it is a very viable debate tactic, used all the time in formal debates. It makes the other person defend something that is implied in their argument, or a logical conclusion that can be derived from their argument that they did not think of. That is the essence of debating, going over the other person's argument and finding potential weaknesses in it.

To reply with "What I'm saying is what I've said and I've been clear. " is averting the question, and would result in points being deducted. But we are not in debate class, so it doesn't really matter, especially since the Pete Rose question, as you pointed out, was factually wrong on my part. ;)



Secondly, where did you get the idea that Pete Rose didn't post solid SLG numbers? From age 24 through age 38, Rose's Slugging Percentage was below league average exactly ZERO times and while age-prime, Rose finished 8th and 9th in the NL in SLG. To use Rose as your prime example of a high-OBP/low-SLG hitter isn't at all appropriate given Rose's actual performance.

Thank you for correcting my mistake. I just glanced at his career number and saw that it was low. My bad.

But let me use another example. Do you think that Maury Wills was an unproductive leadoff hitter? Or Davey Lopes? Or a better question, if Drew Stubbs has a career like Maury Wills or Davey Lopes, would you be disappointed?



Sure they do. When we're talking about speed players, Stolen Bases will always factor in because they'll always be asked to steal bases. That impacts value. Going back to your Pete Rose example, Rick has already aptly noted that Rose's value was actually somewhat suppressed because he was a poor base stealer. While other functional speed behavior (going first-to-third on a single for example) is nice, but the value of that behavior is still firmly throttled by the value of base acquisition via true SLG.

I was referring to the argument over whether SLG is necessary in order to be a good leadoff hitter. I am arguing that even if the player has no speed, if he has a high OBP, he is a productive leadoff hitter, even if he has a low SLG. I am not arguing that speed makes up for lost SLG, some others on this thread may be, but I am not. Saying stolen bases are relevant because players are asked to steal bases is like saying that sac. bunting is relevant because players will be asked to do it. It does affect the players value, but that is irrelevant to whether a high SLG is necessary for a leadoff hitter to be productive.

Mario-Rijo
07-23-2008, 09:07 PM
Except thats not even close to being accurate. Last season before he began choking up, he had 2 months of an .850 OPS of better, including his best month of the year where he posted a .925 OPS (he posted a .905 OPS the month he choked up). Then this year in April when he posted a .944 OPS in Sarasota and July so far between Sarasota and Chattanooga he has posted a .377/.463/.604 line so far for a 1.067 OPS this month. He had 1 good month while choking up and then the season ended. It wasn't his best month of the year and it wasn't close to being better than 2 different months he has put up this year. So lets stop with the 'it made him better' stuff. The month before he started it was his best month of the year last year and he has since had 2 better months this year.

With all due respect Doug, you already have an opinion and that has never changed. Fair enough but I have an opinion of my own and although small sample IMO he is more productive when he's choking up. I am pretty sure that as well as he done the month before it had as much to do with luck (A robust .439 BABIP) as it did with skill. But his skill showed up a lot more when he choked up. Bottom line is that he rarely has shown the ability to get on base w/o the help of a high BB driven OBP. Now most would certainly rather have him BB more to get on base but frankly the issue is if he can hit well enough to avoid pitchers taking advantage of him by pitching to his weaknesses at higher levels, thus dramatically taking away from his ability to work a walk.

His best 3 months of '07

May - 139 PA's -114 AB's - .175 ISOP - 16.5 BB% - 23.0 K% - .272/.402/.447

July - 113 PA's - 92 AB's - .207 ISOP - 17.7 BB% - 29.2 K% - .293/.425/.500

Aug - 121 PA's -109 AB's - .211 ISOP - 7.4 BB% - 19.8 K% - .321/.372/.532

His worst 3 months of '07

Take a look at the extended statistics halfway down the page.
http://firstinning.com/players/Drew-Stubbs-a/?s_y=2007&s_t=Dayton&s_ll=A

With the exception of July when I think he was as lucky as he was good his K% is higher in bad months and lower in the better months. When he was at his best IMO is when he was choking up with a high but still more normalized BABIP (.383) a much higher avg, higher Slg% and his OBP% is still very respectable. IMO when he wasn't striking out he was far more productive. Call it small sample size if you wish but I still maintain that he's a better offensive player in every way when he chokes up.

BTW Here's the original story:


Choking Up For Big Hits
Posted Aug. 21, 2007 8:58 am by J.J. Cooper
Filed under: Daily Dish

A little over a week ago, Dayton manager Donnie Scott and hitting coach Darren Bragg told their team that everyone was going to choke up on the bat. Tired of seeing inopportune strikeouts and looking for a way to speed up bats that were dragging in the August heat, the coaches thought choking up could help fix some bad habits.

Drew Stubbs and Juan Francisco can be thankful for the switch.

The turnaround has been remarkable for Stubbs. The scouting report on the former Texas center fielder has been consistent for years–he has all the tools to be an above-average center fielder with above-average power and above-average speed, but his struggles with strikeouts could limit his potential.

A year and a half into his pro career nothing had changed; Stubbs had struck out 190 times in 161 games. But since choking up a week and a half ago, Stubbs has struck out twice in 42 at-bats. He had a stretch of seven consecutive games without a strikeout–before that he had never gone more than four games in a row without a strikeout as a pro and had only had three streaks of more than two games without a whiff (two streaks of three games and one of four games).

As simple as it may sound, choking up seems to have helped Stubbs gain the bat control that he’s lacked. It’s only a 10-game stretch, so it’s too early to declare Stubbs cured, but his .524 average (22 for 42) with eight extra-base hits in his past 10 games makes it clear that something is going right for the center fielder.

“He’s getting a piece of things, fouling off tough pitches,” Scott said. “He’s shortened his swing and using his hands better. It’s only been a matter of an inch, but he’s only struck out twice since we started this . . . He’s driving the ball. It’s working.”

After a few games the Dayton coaching staff let Dragons hitters go back to their normal grip, but Stubbs stuck with choking up. When you’re hitting like this, you don’t mess with success.

While Stubbs is still choking up, Francisco is back at the bottom of the bat. But the emphasis on bat control seems to have paid off for him as well. He’s hit .351 over the past eight games and cranked three home runs on Sunday. As a 20-year-old, Francisco now leads the Midwest League in home runs (21) and is second in RBIs (82).

“He hasn’t been scuffling bad, but he slowed down a little bit over the last couple of weeks,” Scott said. “It’s nice to see him get back on track and it’s a nice time to get hot.”

Francisco’s three home runs all came on the first pitch he saw–two fastballs and a breaking ball. That sums up the biggest task on Francisco’s to-do list. He has the bat speed to hit bad pitches, but he gets too much practice at it because of his habit of swinging at pitches out of the zone–he has 22 walks and a league-leading 138 strikeouts in 120 games.

“There’s no question he’s a free swinger,” Scott said. “He’ll swing from the top of head to his toes. He’s really improved in that area, but he has to get better.”

dougdirt
07-23-2008, 09:16 PM
I know the story behind it, but I will continue to argue its not the reason for his success. This year his strikeout % is pretty close to the month he was choking up. Except he is doing it against much better pitchers now. The article mentions that choking up shortened his swing a little bit. Perhaps he is now using the same principles he used while choking up while not choking up now, shortening his swing and using his hands more. Fact is, you are basing a whole lot of opinion on 50 at bats of choking up on a guy being bullheaded without having even the slightest knowledge of how he is going about his plate appearances and swings today other than he simply isn't choking up. I think that is very unfair to Drew.

M2
07-23-2008, 09:20 PM
I don't want a guy who goes 6'4", 200 lbs. choking up. That's for the John Cangelosi's of the world.

SteelSD
07-23-2008, 10:57 PM
I agree with you that Langoria makes the best leadoff hitter. However, the fact that Iwamura has little value outside the leadoff slot does not address whether or not he needs a high SLG to be a good leadoff hitter. I agree it is better for a leadoff hitter to have a high SLG, but is it necessary for him to be a productive leadoff hitter? That is the question that is relevant to Stubbs. And if it is not necessary, than it is less important in the lead off slot.

There are levels of "productive", of course. A lower-SLG hitter can certainly be productive given a high enough OBP, but hitters need to be compared to hitters rather than positions in lineups.

Really, while the notion of a "leadoff hitter" is romantic and all, there's really no such thing. The traditional SLG bell curve we generally see when lineup cards are filled out is a creation of necessity rather than lineup slot "importance" or "job" (for lack of better terms). There simply aren't enough high-OBP/high SLG hitters to go around. Lacking equally good hitters for each slot, we end up with lineups that look to minimize hitter deficiencies.

So what we end up with is a hitter guaranteed to take the first PA of an Inning only once per game called a "leadoff hitter".


But let me use another example. Do you think that Maury Wills was an unproductive leadoff hitter? Or Davey Lopes? Or a better question, if Drew Stubbs has a career like Maury Wills or Davey Lopes, would you be disappointed?

Again, there's no such thing as a "leadoff hitter" and neither Wills or Lopes are Stubbs' comps. Find actual comps based on a comparison of Stubbs' peripherals to theirs and I'll be happy to discuss.


I was referring to the argument over whether SLG is necessary in order to be a good leadoff hitter. I am arguing that even if the player has no speed, if he has a high OBP, he is a productive leadoff hitter, even if he has a low SLG. I am not arguing that speed makes up for lost SLG, some others on this thread may be, but I am not. Saying stolen bases are relevant because players are asked to steal bases is like saying that sac. bunting is relevant because players will be asked to do it. It does affect the players value, but that is irrelevant to whether a high SLG is necessary for a leadoff hitter to be productive.

Please put down the concept of "leadoff hitter" and back away slowly.

Kingspoint
07-24-2008, 12:37 AM
OBP is more important than SLG in any lineup position if we're simply comparing the value of those. However, SLG is not somehow less important in the leadoff slot than it is in another lineup slot. Secondary base acquisition via a Stolen Base is thoroughly trumped by secondary bases acquired via Base Hit in every lineup slot. While speed is a nice supplemental talent, it simply can't come close to replicating the value of real SLG.


You brought up a good point.

I've always considered that the most important responsibility of the Top-2 hitters in an order is to be able to get themselves to 2nd Base as much as possible, even more important than getting to 1st Base. The reason is that because your typical #2 and #3 hitters are .300+ hitters and can score them with a single if they can get to 2nd Base.

Pete Rose and Joe Morgan were the perfect examples of this. Rose would hit 40+ Doubles a season along with on average 5 Triples, and about 7 Stolen Bases. That's 52+ times of getting to 2nd Base by himself. When it's combined with a high OBP, then he becomes a perfect leadoff hitter. Many times that 52+ reached 60+, so beyond the times he got himself to 1st Base by himself, he was also able to get himself to 2nd Base and into scoring position a high number of times. This way, you don't need to waste an out in order to bunt him to 2nd Base, and for 52+ times you don't have to have 2 hits in order to get him in.

The same held true for Morgan. Morgan would get 35+ Doubles every year along with about 4 Triples and 30+ stolen bases, so Morgan's 69+ times of getting himself to 2nd Base was better than Rose, and that was important because there could already be one out if Rose didn't get on. A pitcher often ends an inning with the last out, or when the #8 hitter does increasing the need for the #1 and/or #2 hitter to get themselves to 2nd Base by themselves. Morgan was an ideal #2 hitter.

From these two models you try to find players that are as close to it as possible.

Good OBP with Good Doubles/Triples/Stolen Base (SB% must be at least 70% or it's ineffective as they're wiping out a runner and creating an out when they get caught....the double-whammy) makes for great #1 and #2 hitters. Dunn may hit well in the #2 spot, but he's not a good #2 hitter.

Of the probable roster for 2009, the best #1 and #2 hitters should be....

Jerry Hairston, Jr. who has 25 Doubles, 16 SB (4 CS), and 4 Triples with a .409 OBP. That's 45 times that he's gotten himself to 2nd in 73 games. That's on par with one of Morgan's best seasons, and beats all of Rose's best seasons. If Hairston can do 70% of that next season than he'd still end up with 60+ times of getting himself to 2nd Base and if he could hold a .350 OBP, then that would be tremendous for a #1 or #2 hitter. Hairston can play SS or RF or LF or CF.

Chris Dickerson has an OPS of .1000+ over his last 8 weeks of play. He's finally found his stroke at the plate and hopefully stays down at AAA to continue to work with it while it's working well and he gets to see other pitchers he's seen before the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th times on the season. While Dickerson had an extremely slow April and May, his numbers over the last 8 weeks give him some decent totals for the season. I would expect that since he's much older than Bruce that he won't have the struggles going from AAA to the Majors. His transition will be less painful because of his age of 26. I would expect no more of a dropoff of 25% for the totals.

So far this year, Dickerson has put up 8 Triples, 10 Doubles and 21 SB's (7 CS) in 82 games. Over a season that's 78 times he's gotten himself to 2nd Base, an outstanding number and his OBP is currently at .374. Dickerson can play CF next year allowing for Bruce to move over to RF while Hairston plays LF. Even with a 25% drop in totals, Dickerson would still be getting himself to 2nd Base 59 times. His OBP over the last 8 weeks has been .424! w/ a SLG of .580! But, again, if he can come up with an OBP of .350 then those 59 times he's getting himself to 2nd Base by himself makes him an outstanding #1 or #2 hitter.

In 2010 we're going to be talking about Drew Stubbs, but I'd rather wait to see what his 1st half numbers are next year rather than using the numbers he has this year, though they are very good. In 92 games, he's gotten himself to 2nd Base by himself 55 times already: 23 Doubles, 4 Triples, 28 SB's (8 CS) w/ a .382 OBP.

Then there's this kid, 3B Michael Griffin. Griffin is 24. Here's what he did last season:

Batted a combined .310 with 10 HR, 66 RBI and 17 steals with Class A Advanced Sarasota and Double-A Chattanooga...with 171 hits ranked T3rd in all of minor league baseball...began the season with Sarasota where he batted .303 with24 doubles in 90 games...was named a Florida State League All-Star...recorded 4-hit games on 5/9 vs. Jupiter and 6/25 at Vero Beach...transferred to Chattanooga on 7/12...enjoyed a 12-game hitting streak as a Lookout from 8/1-8/16 (20-49, .408)...following the season played for North Shore in the Hawaiian League.
Played with Class A Dayton, where he placed second in the Midwest League in at-bats (548), third in games (131), and fifth in doubles (33)...hit .263 with 71 runs scored and 52 RBIs...hit safely in 20 of his first 22 games of the season...received a call-up to Triple-A Louisville on the last day of the season, where he went hitless in three at-bats.
Appeared in 13 games with Rookie-level Billings, where he hit .263 (10-for-38) with 12 runs scored.

What Michael Griffin is doing this year so far in 91 games between Chattanooga and Louisville is get himself to 2nd Base 41 times or about a pace of 65+. He has an OBP on the year of only .317, but has done much better the last month, batting .325 with and OBP of .350. He has 25 Doubles, 4 Triples, and 12 SB's (6 CS's). He's probably not going to be a starter, but could help at the top of the lineup if an injury occurs. The next couple of years, he's someone that could assist in this area.

We shouldn't have to see Corey Patterson ever again.

Mario-Rijo
07-24-2008, 12:40 AM
I don't want a guy who goes 6'4", 200 lbs. choking up. That's for the John Cangelosi's of the world.

If it improves his production I could care less how it looks. His bat control is below avg and if that's what it takes to improve it what's the problem with it?

Kingspoint
07-24-2008, 12:48 AM
All told, each CS erases the value of about 3 stolen bases.

I've thought hard about this for 30 years and I firmly believe that it takes away a little less than 2.

You lose the 1 Total Base from home plate to 1st Base. You would lose 2 Total Bases if you were already on 2nd when you got caught stealing or picked off, but that's only about 10% of the caught stealings. You also lose an out, which is probably equal to about 2/3rds of a Total Base as a typical game gives a team about 40 plate appearances where they get about 26 Total Bases including the walks (say about 10 hits of which 3 are Doubles and 2 are homeruns plus 4 walks for a total of 26).

So, someone with a 67% ratio is a positive for the team in my opinion as the havoc they create on the basepaths for the pitcher creates a lot more positives for the team than the negatives of being caught stealing and losing momentum.

Bill James thinks it's a bit higher, closer to maybe 75%, but I don't believe that.

Kingspoint
07-24-2008, 12:55 AM
Good thread.

757690
07-24-2008, 01:06 AM
There are levels of "productive", of course. A lower-SLG hitter can certainly be productive given a high enough OBP, but hitters need to be compared to hitters rather than positions in lineups.

Really, while the notion of a "leadoff hitter" is romantic and all, there's really no such thing. The traditional SLG bell curve we generally see when lineup cards are filled out is a creation of necessity rather than lineup slot "importance" or "job" (for lack of better terms). There simply aren't enough high-OBP/high SLG hitters to go around. Lacking equally good hitters for each slot, we end up with lineups that look to minimize hitter deficiencies.

So you have just made my point. You claim that managers put low SLG hitters in the leadoff spot, to minimize their deficiencies. That means that SLG is less important in the leadoff slot than the cleanup slot, because
having the low SLG guy at the top, minimizes his weakness, because having a low SLG at the top hurts the team less than having him in the cleanup spot.
If what you say is true, that putting a low SLG hitter in the leadoff spot minimizes his weakness (low SLG), then you are admitting that SLG is less important in the leadoff spot than in the middle.

Naturally, if the manager had 5 guys with both high OBP and high SLG, he would put all 5 at the top of the llneup. But as you stated few, if any managers have that situation. They have maybe two high OBP, high SLG hitters, and they put them in the middle of the lineup. If SLG was as important at the top of the lineup as it is in the middle, managers would put those high OBP and high SLG guys at the top of the lineup. But they don't and they shouldn't. Because SLG is more important in the middle of the lineup than at the top.


So what we end up with is a hitter guaranteed to take the first PA of an Inning only once per game called a "leadoff hitter. Again, there's no such thing as a "leadoff hitter"

Yes there is, he's the guy who bats first for the team in every game. :p:

But seriously, a leadoff hitter is defined by more than just his one at bat leading off the game. In the NL, he will leadoff more time during the season, the first ab of the game excluded, due to the fact that teams regularly walk the 8 hitter with two outs to get to the pitcher. I have no idea what the numbers are but it seems like it happens around once a game, probably a little less. Say it happens 100 times a season, which is conservative, that means that a leadoff hitter gets around 250 PA a year leading off an inning (assuming the pitcher gets hit in arond 10 of those situations). That is around a third of his PA's. That's a lot.
And since the leadoff hitter hits behind the 7, 8, and 9 hitters who have much lower OBP and SLG than the rest of the lineup, especially in the NL, he will have less baserunners to drive in than the middle of the lineup guys. That means that his SLG is less important than if he hit in the middle.


and neither Wills or Lopes are Stubbs' comps. Find actual comps based on a comparison of Stubbs' peripherals to theirs and I'll be happy to discuss.

Well, no one knows what Stubbs will be in the majors, so it is silly to compare him to major leaguers. But that is not what I was asking you to do. I was giving you a hypothetical. What if Stubbs put up the same numbers as those two? I am not saying he will, heck, he might not ever make the majors. But as a pure hypothetical, would you be disappointed with his career if Stubbs put up similar numbers as Lopes and Wills? My point has less to do with defending Stubbs as it does with arguing that SLG is less important for guys at the top of the lineup than it is for guys in the middle. I picked those two, since they have such poor SLG numbers, but were considered to be very successful players. I was just trying to see if you you agree with that.

Kingspoint
07-24-2008, 03:45 AM
The team that scores first wins most of the ballgames, so it's important to set up that first inning the best way that you can to maximize the number of runs you can score in the 1st inning.

Kingspoint
07-24-2008, 03:54 AM
Offensively speaking, a team full of Adam Dunn's would outscore a team full of Pete Rose's pretty handedly.

I know you said, Offensively speaking, but you can't remove Dunn's and Rose's defense and then try to compare them. Rose's Defense is one of the reasons his teams won games and Dunn's Defense is one of the reasons his teams lose games.

Not even close. A team full of Pete Rose's would have Gold Glove defense at every position except Catcher, and I'm not too sure about that.

A team full of Adam Dunn's could never get anyboy out and would give up over 20 runs per game.

Imagine Dunn playing 2nd Base or SS or CenterField? You could sell tickets to that and call it the Comedy Club.

Give me 8 Pete Rose's any day of the week over 8 Adam Dunn's. Heck, give me 8 Brandon Phillips, or 8 Joey Vottos, or 8 Edwin Encarnacions, or 8 Jeff Keppingers over 8 Adam Dunn's. Keppinger's hitting .450 w/ RISP, and he'll always hit above .330 w/ RISP.

I'm assuming that neither one of them pitches.

We're witnessing Dunn's best year in baseball. Enjoy it. It's fun to watch. From here it all goes downhill (except for one more year 5 years from now when he has a spike and he does the same thing he did either last year or next year. Guys who don't do steroids are easily predictable.

princeton
07-24-2008, 07:28 AM
I figure that the 9 Roses beat the 9 Dunns 7 out of 10 times, which is outstanding.

that said, in those other three games, the Roses get absolutely wiped out.

puca
07-24-2008, 08:00 AM
I figure that the 9 Roses beat the 9 Dunns 7 out of 10 times, which is outstanding.

that said, in those other three games, the Roses get absolutely wiped out.

So I assume the Dunns pythag record is better than 3-7.

If 5 Dunns are switched out for 5 Pattersons in late close games, that might be the reason.

Or maybe its the Dunns KRISPY rate.

princeton
07-24-2008, 08:10 AM
So I assume the Dunns pythag record is better than 3-7.

Rose is small, consistent offense even against good pitching. Dunn is big, inconsistent offense.

not only that, but also Rose would run out of the baseline and knock Pythagarus into the box seats. the man has a hate for Greek mathemeticians.

gonelong
07-24-2008, 09:18 AM
I figure that the 9 Roses beat the 9 Dunns 7 out of 10 times, which is outstanding.

that said, in those other three games, the Roses get absolutely wiped out.

Pete would have a large defensive advantage at all 8 spots, no doubt. On the other hand Dunn would probably be seeing middle relief by the 5th inning and might score 10 runs a game or more in that scenario.

Given Dunn's defense and his bat, I'd think you'd see all sorts of 12-10 games.

I'd give Pete 6 out of 10, mostly based on his Defense.

I think Dunn would handily outscore him (offensively) as it would only take 1 or two of the 8 Dunn's to be hot to score about 8 runs a game. The other 6 or 7 would be on base via walks so you'd see all sorts of 3 run homers and Grand slams.

The tipping point is that Pete would have an enormous advantage at 3B, SS, 2B, and CF ... and I suspect at C ... not too many really tall catchers, plenty of sawed of pug types.

It'd be interesting to see someone run a computer simulation for this scenario though I don't know how one would adequately peg the defensive abilities of either at SS or C.

If all 8 Rose's and Dunn's played LF only and had league average defenses and pitching, that outcome would be much closer IMO.

GL