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nate
07-09-2008, 07:53 AM
Check (http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog/2008/07/08/think_macro_not_micro) it:


Think macro, not micro
Tuesday, July 8, 2008, 07:24 PM EST [Reds]

For good or bad, Bob Castellini listens to the fans of the Cincinnati Reds.

You wanted a ďbig name managerĒ -- hello Dusty Baker.

You were frustrated at a slow start -- goodbye Wayne Krivsky.

And the complaint heís probably heard the most -- itís the one Iíve heard the most -- is that this team hasnít had a winning season since 2000.

Castellini wants that to change. You want that to change.

But youíre wrong.

Youíre not wrong because losing is good or noble or anything else, but youíre wrong because 82 wins is no different than 70 wins. ďWait til next yearĒ may not be as hollow when you win 82 games, but itís still the wrong goal.

The Reds need to build for the future, and that begins now -- no matter how many games the 2008 Reds win, be it 85 or 75. Youíre not letting that happen, though.

The cry of ďseven straight losing seasonsĒ is why you say you donít go to games, itís why you say you boo young players like Jay Bruce, itís why you boo older players like Ken Griffey Jr. and itís why you boo players in their prime like Adam Dunn. You say itís why you want the team ďblown upĒ and you say itís why you donít want to wait for the minor leagues to bear fruit. You say itís why you scream ďWho DeyĒ and why you show up for Game 7 of the Kelly Cup Finals.

But itís the wrong cry. Missing the playoffs for every year since 1995 Ė thatís what you should be complaining about. In the years since it has become even easier to make the postseason than it has been since the Redstockings were born in 1869, the Reds have made the expanded postseason but once.

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Florida Marlins, two teams that didnít exist when the 1990 Reds went wire-to-wire have each won a World Series title, the Marlins have done so twice. Last season the Colorado Rockies Ė whose ballpark made Neifi Perez a commodity was so unfair that physicists had to be called in to help Ė defied the odds and made the World Series last season. Even the Tampa Bay (no longer Devil) Rays are making a serious run at winning the toughest division in baseball.

Why are the Rays winning now? Not because they planned on simply winning, but because they planned on building into a consistent winner, a team that could make the playoffs, where anything can happen (again, ask the Rockies).

The Kansas City Royals had a winning record in 2003. In the next three seasons, they lost a combined 310 games.

The Rays had a Major League-worst 66-96 record, the 10th consecutive losing season in franchise history, but since Stuart Sternberg took over control of the franchise following the 2005 season, the Rays have had a plan. Andrew Friedman has been able to execute that plan without meddling from above or listening to the outside world that told them they had to sign Barry Bonds or couldnít trade away former No. 1 pick Delmon Young. The Rays stuck to that plan.

That kind of approach is what is needed in Cincinnati.

Although Castellini made a mistake by firing Krivsky (the team hadnít spent a day in sixth place under Krivsky and immediately moved into sixth place and spent roughly two-thirds of the days since alone in last place), but he was smart enough to place a proven winner in his place in Walt Jocketty. Jocketty needs his time to make this franchise a winner (just as Krivsky and Dan OíBrien before him did, but were allowed that luxury).

The fact that Jim Bowden is still employed and the Reds have had three different general managers since his departure tells you what kind of wavering there has been in the organization and youíve seen the results (although nobody's seen results from Bowden's Nationals). Quick fixes can only get you winning (as in 82 wins) but they donít build long-term success.

Today the Reds start a road trip that some have pinned the hopes of a winning season upon -- a decent road trip and the Reds could be within 10 games of first place at the All-Star Break. A road trip like, well, most of them in the last three years, and the fans will be screaming again. In the end, whatís the difference? Very little. Either way, the goal isnít to be .500, itís to win titles. Those take time and patience. But thatís something you are apparently running out of. But be careful what you wish for, 82 wins is just mediocrity, not the goal.

camisadelgolf
07-09-2008, 08:08 AM
My thoughts exactly. We've waited over 10 years, so what's the big deal if we have to wait one or two more if it means consistent winning for a long time?

edabbs44
07-09-2008, 08:26 AM
My thoughts exactly. We've waited over 10 years, so what's the big deal if we have to wait one or two more if it means consistent winning for a long time?

Many on this board went right along with the FO...they couldn't deal with another rebuilding plan.

jojo
07-09-2008, 09:18 AM
The Rays had a Major League-worst 66-96 record, the 10th consecutive losing season in franchise history, but since Stuart Sternberg took over control of the franchise following the 2005 season, the Rays have had a plan. Andrew Friedman has been able to execute that plan without meddling from above or listening to the outside world that told them they had to sign Barry Bonds or couldnít trade away former No. 1 pick Delmon Young. The Rays stuck to that plan.

Yep and i'd add a little further caveat that this is why results-based analysis falls so flat too. During the last several years despite the big change in the Ray's FO, any suggestion that the Rays are doing things correctly was most often met with something like "ya right, that's why they're losing 95 games huh?"

A FO deserves patience when it earns it and while I agree with CTR's stance that a "winning season" shouldn't be the bar that fans settle for, in general, fans need to dig a little deeper before they default to a "no playoffs, no right to ask for patience" stance.

That said, I have yet to see a plan from the Reds "new" ownership.

RedsManRick
07-09-2008, 11:59 AM
Yep and i'd add a little further caveat that this is why results-based analysis falls so flat too. During the last several years despite the big change in the Ray's FO, any suggestion that the Rays are doing things correctly was most often met with something like "ya right, that's why they're losing 95 games huh?"

A FO deserves patience when it earns it and while I agree with CTR's stance that a "winning season" shouldn't be the bar that fans settle for, in general, fans need to dig a little deeper before they default to a "no playoffs, no right to ask for patience" stance.

That said, I have yet to see a plan from the Reds "new" ownership.

:beerme:

Losing is much easier to accept when there's a clear plan being executed beneath the surface. But when the plan is "win now", losing now is pretty hard to excuse.

We've now seen both the Brewers and Rays announce formal rebuilding plans and execute them. The Rays are almost certainly playoff bound and the Brewers are probably WC favorites. Meanwhile, the Reds are sort of moving in a good direction, but not with enough purpose or coordination to get over the hump.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 12:07 PM
Losing is much easier to accept when there's a clear plan being executed beneath the surface. But when the plan is "win now", losing now is pretty hard to excuse.

We've now seen both the Brewers and Rays announce formal rebuilding plans and execute them. Meanwhile, the Reds are still trying to "win now".

What are the possible "plans"?

1. Win now.
2. Rebuild.
3. Compete and build.

Any others?

It's obvious which of these plans is in place at any time. (Reds have already shifted from win now to compete and build.) The team is not going to announce how various players fit into any of the plans -- that would sharply compromise their ability to move players who didn't fit the plan or sign players who do fit at a team-friendly price. So.... not sure exactly what kind of "announcement" people are looking for.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 12:28 PM
Although Castellini made a mistake by firing Krivsky (the team hadn’t spent a day in sixth place under Krivsky and immediately moved into sixth place and spent roughly two-thirds of the days since alone in last place), but he was smart enough to place a proven winner in his place in Walt Jocketty. Jocketty needs his time to make this franchise a winner (just as Krivsky and Dan O’Brien before him did, but were allowed that luxury).:


I don't get it.. It was a mistake to fire Wayne because the team hadn't yet reached sixth place while he was here, but have since he was fired? This is still largely his team. If the team pulled a miracle and made it into first place, I'm sure Trent would use that to support his argument that Wayne's firing was premature (and he'd have a great arguement).

Then he says that DanO and Wayne were allowed the luxury of time, and Jocketty should have that luxury too?? Is this just sloppy writing? Did he intend to say that DanO and Wayne were not given enough time.

Aside from that Trent is missing the entire point. Fans want to see progress. Moving from 75 wins to 82 wins is progress. Reshuffling the talent into different players while the net total talent deterioates isn't really progress.
Bringing in a lot of bad players with bad contracts can offset bringing in good players.

Jpup
07-09-2008, 12:30 PM
I don't get it.. It was a mistake to fire Wayne because the team hadn't yet reached sixth place while he was here, but have since he was fired? This is still largely his team. If the team pulled a miracle and made it into first place, I'm sure Trent would use that to support his argument that Wayne's firing was premature (and he'd have a great arguement).

Then he says that DanO and Wayne were allowed the luxury of time, and Jocketty should have that luxury too?? Is this just sloppy writing? Did he intend to say that DanO and Wayne were not given enough time.

Aside from that Trent is missing the entire point. Fans want to see progress. Moving from 75 wins to 82 wins is progress. Reshuffling the talent into different players while the net total talent deterioates isn't really progress.
Bringing in a lot of bad players with bad contracts can offset bringing in good players.

If Wayne were still the GM, you can bet he would be doing something. Walt Jocketty has done more of nothing than any GM in baseball since he has been hired. He hasn't tried to improve the team at all. He hasn't tried to build for the future.

Show us something. Show us a plan.

flyer85
07-09-2008, 12:31 PM
the problem is still they same one ... the Reds have never went into a rebuilding mode. Instead they try to maximize the numbers of wins in the current season with an eye toward the future. Instead they end up losing now and building little to nothing for the future. The Reds not being a playoff type team stretches are far out as I can see.

edabbs44
07-09-2008, 12:53 PM
If Wayne were still the GM, you can bet he would be doing something. Walt Jocketty has done more of nothing than any GM in baseball since he has been hired. He hasn't tried to improve the team at all. He hasn't tried to build for the future.

Show us something. Show us a plan.

Wayne was lauded for not "exposing his hand" for 2 years. The guy had zero plan and everyone claimed he had one, he was just a secretive guy.

Jocketty takes over a team 2 months before the deadline and he is supposed to design and execute an "Extreme Makeover" type project?

Start the critique at the trade deadline. Let's be at least somewhat fair.

Jpup
07-09-2008, 12:55 PM
Wayne was lauded for not "exposing his hand" for 2 years. The guy had zero plan and everyone claimed he had one, he was just a secretive guy.

Jocketty takes over a team 2 months before the deadline and he is supposed to design and execute an "Extreme Makeover" type project?

Start the critique at the trade deadline. Let's be at least somewhat fair.

He's been in the organization long enough to tell what he has. He also wasn't far away from it being in St. Louis. He knows what these guys are.

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 01:01 PM
Wayne had a plan.... he was just handcuffed by Castellini to 'win now' which made his plan all the more difficult to execute. Argue that he sucked at his getting his plan completed or not, it was there, just tough to make happen when your plan isn't what the owner wants.

Mario-Rijo
07-09-2008, 01:04 PM
I think it's pretty ludicrous to expect anything of significance whatsoever in any direction from Jocketty at this point. He has a owner and a fan base that want to win now and a team that obviously cannot. So instead of being hasty he's letting things play out until Castellini recognizes what everybody else already knows, we ain't winning right now nor any time real soon.

nate
07-09-2008, 01:16 PM
I think it's pretty hard to dramatically re-shape an organization's look from February to July.

jojo
07-09-2008, 01:17 PM
I think it's still an open question as to whether Jocketty will even be in the FO long enough to execute any kind of plan.

durl
07-09-2008, 01:22 PM
I think it's pretty hard to dramatically re-shape an organization's look from February to July.

I think it's dramatically hard to re-shape a team in less than 2 years...which was all Krivsky was given.

nate
07-09-2008, 01:25 PM
I think it's still an open question as to whether Jocketty will even be in the FO long enough to execute any kind of plan.

Interesting and terrifying all at once. Do you think Bob will "Wayne" him or do you think Walt has maybe had enough GM-ing for now?

I wonder about the latter point quite often.

edabbs44
07-09-2008, 01:27 PM
He's been in the organization long enough to tell what he has. He also wasn't far away from it being in St. Louis. He knows what these guys are.

Unless you want him to trade guys like Harang and Dunn to the first team who makes an offer, he needs to let it play out.

If he holds too long, then that's his problem.

OnBaseMachine
07-09-2008, 01:27 PM
More from Trent:

Thinking out loud 7.9

Wednesday, July 9, 2008, 10:23 AM EST

Could the key to Edinson Volquez's season be that gopher ball he served up to Adrian Gonzalez in the 18th inning of the game against the Padres on May 25?

Volquez gave up that homer after an inning-and-two-thirds and the Reds lost the game. Volquez threw 39 pitches -- and he was done just in time.

Aaron Harang threw four shutout innings, 63 pitches and has not been the same since.

Since that day, Harang has made eight starts, is 1-5 with a 7.31 ERA. He's given up just more than two home runs per nine innings, he's walking one batter for every 2.4 strikeouts (as opposed to a walk per 4.01 strikeout in 2006 and 07 combined).

Harang says he's OK, everything else said he's not.

With just one start before the All-Star break, Harang shouldn't pitch again until at the very least Thursday, July 17 at home against the Mets. Bring up Homer Bailey or Matt Maloney (or Daryl Thompson if someone goes on the DL) for that start on Sunday. Bailey and Thompson still have options, so they may be better than Maloney, who hasn't used an option this season. Just make sure it's anyone by Aaron Harang.

Harang is signed through 2010 (with a club option that can become mutual in 2011). He is a huge part of this team's future. There's no reason to have him hurt himself. The Reds need to do what Dusty Baker didn't do on May 25 -- give up the battle to win the war.

http://www.thelotd.com/ctrent/blog

edabbs44
07-09-2008, 01:29 PM
I think it's dramatically hard to re-shape a team in less than 2 years...which was all Krivsky was given.

I don't think it is difficult to show improvement in 2 seasons. And by improvement I mean the team as a whole, not a player by player comparison exercise. Wayne's "success" has largely been measured on a player by player basis, not on the part that counts. Ws.

I think it is even easier to not get worse when you increase payroll and not be forced to trade your better players due to monetary concerns.

_Sir_Charles_
07-09-2008, 01:34 PM
C-Trent is certainly on the right track. Nice to see a writer who's seeing the team for what it is and not looking through rose-colored glasses. Shut him down...for the season in the bigs. Some minor league stints would be fine occasionally. Let some other pitching coaches (power comes to mind) see if they can fix mechanical problems, let him get his confidence back by pummeling some minor league kids. Let him throw without the pressure for a while, without all the scrutiny.

lollipopcurve
07-09-2008, 01:36 PM
With just one start before the All-Star break, Harang shouldn't pitch again until at the very least Thursday, July 17 at home against the Mets. Bring up Homer Bailey or Matt Maloney (or Daryl Thompson if someone goes on the DL) for that start on Sunday. Bailey and Thompson still have options, so they may be better than Maloney, who hasn't used an option this season. Just make sure it's anyone by Aaron Harang.

Harang is signed through 2010 (with a club option that can become mutual in 2011). He is a huge part of this team's future. There's no reason to have him hurt himself. The Reds need to do what Dusty Baker didn't do on May 25 -- give up the battle to win the war.

CTrent is absolutely right, in my opinion.

Baker's failure to use his long man correctly on May 25, and the team's hamhanded handling of the rotation in the days afterward, should be grounds for re-evaluating the field staff very closely. I wonder how much input Dick Pole has? Seems to me these kinds of decisions should have the fingerprints of the pitching coach on them somewhere.

Now is just another opportunity to do the right thing by Harang. I'd be surprised if they see it, though.

membengal
07-09-2008, 01:37 PM
CTrent has captured what a bunch of us on here certainly have been saying with regard to the May 25th debacle. The piper is STILL being paid with regard to that day.

hebroncougar
07-09-2008, 01:53 PM
I'd love to have seen a poll as to anyone who wanted Dusty Baker as the Reds "big name" manager. And I said it in the game thread last night, no way, no how should Harang pitch on Sunday. That he was left on the mound for as long as he was last night is a joke. You don't do that to the guy who you have $40 million + invested in over the next three years. That is what guys like Affeldt are signed for.

jojo
07-09-2008, 01:54 PM
Interesting and terrifying all at once. Do you think Bob will "Wayne" him or do you think Walt has maybe had enough GM-ing for now?

I wonder about the latter point quite often.

My guess is that Jocketty has no worries about being fired. It all boils down to whether he wants to be a GM.

CrackerJack
07-09-2008, 01:55 PM
the problem is still they same one ... the Reds have never went into a rebuilding mode. Instead they try to maximize the numbers of wins in the current season with an eye toward the future. Instead they end up losing now and building little to nothing for the future. The Reds not being a playoff type team stretches are far out as I can see.

The Reds run their sports team like an Amusement park these days.

This year it was Dusty Baker (oh boy) Jr. and his #600 chase (whooo) and then "the next big thing" Jay Bruce (who can't hit a thing for the last month) when things went really sour.

And if that isn't enough, you get fireworks (FIREWORKS!!) after each HR, lots of thingie mijiggie hand-outs before games, a singing pitcher with funny facial hair and a mullet, and again, Dusty Baker!!!

The Bengals' operate in similiar fashion - duping the casual fans with promotional campaigns centered on an individual star player, their coach being some sort of savior, and using the local sports talk goons, who bounce up and down like school girls over every signing, move or home winning streak vs. a bad team etc..., just looking for anything positive to talk about each year.

Pro sports in Cincinnati are in a bad, bad state still - frankly it's depressing to think about too much. This city sorely needs something to come together and cheer and have fun with in the worst way possible. I get angry just thinking about how bad our owners are for both teams and how miserably they've treated the fans and community as a whole.

redsmetz
07-09-2008, 01:55 PM
I don't think it is difficult to show improvement in 2 seasons. And by improvement I mean the team as a whole, not a player by player comparison exercise. Wayne's "success" has largely been measured on a player by player basis, not on the part that counts. Ws.

I think it is even easier to not get worse when you increase payroll and not be forced to trade your better players due to monetary concerns.

And yet when someone mentioned that the Brewers and the Rays went with rebuilding (and I'm not sure how you "rebuild" the Rays when they've never had a winning season) under new ownership, it's overlooked that they had worse records than the Reds for the first three years under new ownership (Brewers finished 6th three years straight after ownership changed in 2002; the Rays have been last their entire life, I think, and have had new ownership since 2004/05. I don't want to rehash the WK was working towards it, but the foundation has been laid, this bad start notwithstanding, and it's not unlike the direction of many other clubs who have "rebuilt".

Simply because the words were never spoken, didn't mean it was not happening. And when you have a fan base who's sick and tired of it (having been both Bengals and Reds fans), you're not about to stand up and say we're going to suck for a few years. You have to be able to sell the product regardless.

nate
07-09-2008, 01:57 PM
I think it's dramatically hard to re-shape a team in less than 2 years...which was all Krivsky was given.

I agree with that too.

hebroncougar
07-09-2008, 02:00 PM
The Reds run their sports team like an Amusement park these days.

This year it was Dusty Baker (oh boy) Jr. and his #600 chase (whooo) and then "the next big thing" Jay Bruce (who can't hit a thing for the last month) when things went really sour.

And if that isn't enough, you get fireworks (FIREWORKS!!) after each HR, lots of thingie mijiggie hand-outs before games, a singing pitcher with funny facial hair and a mullet, and again, Dusty Baker!!!


You forgot the cheerleaders. :rolleyes: When I was coaching High School baseball, the cheerleading coach asked me if I wanted them to cheer a game, and I asked her if she was joking. :D

jojo
07-09-2008, 02:02 PM
You forgot the cheerleaders. :rolleyes: When I was coaching High School baseball, the cheerleading coach asked me if I wanted them to cheer a game, and I asked her if she was joking. :D

It turns out that she was ahead of her time..

CrackerJack
07-09-2008, 02:10 PM
And yet when someone mentioned that the Brewers and the Rays went with rebuilding (and I'm not sure how you "rebuild" the Rays when they've never had a winning season) under new ownership, it's overlooked that they had worse records than the Reds for the first three years under new ownership (Brewers finished 6th three years straight after ownership changed in 2002; the Rays have been last their entire life, I think, and have had new ownership since 2004/05. I don't want to rehash the WK was working towards it, but the foundation has been laid, this bad start notwithstanding, and it's not unlike the direction of many other clubs who have "rebuilt".

Simply because the words were never spoken, didn't mean it was not happening. And when you have a fan base who's sick and tired of it (having been both Bengals and Reds fans), you're not about to stand up and say we're going to suck for a few years. You have to be able to sell the product regardless.

I worry that the Reds haven't drafted well enough and have still been unable to develop any pitching at all beyond Cueto, and only hitters in Votto and Bruce (one of whom is not ready to contribute yet). EE is just an average player at best - a stop gap it seems unless he turns it around.

Not nearly enough, and I don't see much else behind them for a few years at least.

I think the Reds, like the Bengals', struggle with major league personnel and tough decisions that are critical - something that separates the annual loser and mediocre team from the ones who can peak and thrive for a consistent period of time. They just don't have good personnel people and haven't for a long time here - lots of cheapness and corner cutting from both franchises - very similar.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:13 PM
If Wayne were still the GM, you can bet he would be doing something. Walt Jocketty has done more of nothing than any GM in baseball since he has been hired. He hasn't tried to improve the team at all. He hasn't tried to build for the future.

Show us something. Show us a plan.

Let's see, what Walt has done:

Sent Coffey down, brought Bray up.. good move

Sent Patterson down, and only recalled him when forced to by injuries.
good move..

Gave Homer and Thompson chances, as many wanted him to (not sure I agree this was a good move, but many wanted to do that).

Gave Hat the boot. Good move.

Most of his other moves were do to injury management.

Granted, he has yet to do any trades, but what other teams have done trades since Apr 23 (When Wayne was fired?) Other than CC and Harden,
I can't think of any other trades.

Let's at least wait until the end of July to complain about lack of activity. Wayne doesn't exactly have a crown jewel like Harden or CC to trade. Even Harang and Arroyo are considered fallback options by contenders at this point (if they are considered options at all). Dunn and Jr are going to be very difficult to trade due to their salary and trade restrictions.

What exactly should Walt being doing that Wayne would've done? Wayne may have signed another Joe Mays by now or traded for another Cormier, but I really doubt Wayne would've done any productive moves since Apr 23. Heck, he may still have had Coffey up and Bruce down.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:21 PM
the problem is still they same one ... the Reds have never went into a rebuilding mode. Instead they try to maximize the numbers of wins in the current season with an eye toward the future. .

I have no clue what the plan was under Wayne's reign. A few of his moves were so puzzling that I didn't know if he was trying to win now, or simply to plug holes with stopgaps until his grand future plan happened.

If I had to say anything, Wayne's plan was to accumulate as much pitching as possible, and he didn't care as much about the starting 8 position players.
The problem was that he had a hard time seperating good pitching from bad. Sure, he hit on a few, but he also had some pretty bad whiffs.. Also, the offense/defense now is not good, and barring any moves looks worse for the future.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:25 PM
Wayne had a plan.... he was just handcuffed by Castellini to 'win now' which made his plan all the more difficult to execute. Argue that he sucked at his getting his plan completed or not, it was there, just tough to make happen when your plan isn't what the owner wants.

I don't see how Cast interfered with Wayne's plan.

Again, did Cast force Wayne to sign Agon, Stanton, extend Freel, trade for Maj and Cormier, etc.. Wayne said he wanted Dusty. It seems to me Cast let Wayne get virtually any player he wanted.. Wayne just chose unwisely.

In 2006, when the team was in pseduo-contention, it's perfectly reasonable for the owner to tell his GM to shoot for the postseason. Then when the W-L record deterioated, it's reasonable for the owner to be disappointed.

If Wayne was not on board with Cast's plan, why did he accept the job? It seems like Wayne promised Cast the moon to get the job and then went off on his own, doing whatever he felt like. And then, to compound the problem, he kept Walt and others out of the loop. I'm amazed Wayne was given as much rope as he was given.

redsmetz
07-09-2008, 02:26 PM
Let's see, what Walt has done:

Sent Coffey down, brought Bray up.. good move

Sent Patterson down, and only recalled him when forced to by injuries.
good move..

Gave Homer and Thompson chances, as many wanted him to (not sure I agree this was a good move, but many wanted to do that).

Gave Hat the boot. Good move.

Most of his other moves were do to injury management.

Granted, he has yet to do any trades, but what other teams have done trades since Apr 23 (When Wayne was fired?) Other than CC and Harden,
I can't think of any other trades.

Let's at least wait until the end of July to complain about lack of activity. Wayne doesn't exactly have a crown jewel like Harden or CC to trade. Even Harang and Arroyo are considered fallback options by contenders at this point (if they are considered options at all). Dunn and Jr are going to be very difficult to trade due to their salary and trade restrictions.

What exactly should Walt being doing that Wayne would've done? Wayne may have signed another Joe Mays by now or traded for another Cormier, but I really doubt Wayne would've done any productive moves since Apr 23. Heck, he may still have had Coffey up and Bruce down.

Frankly every move that Jocketty made above were ones that Krivsky in all likelihood would have made at some point. You're complete disdain of Wayne Krivsky continues to peak out. Jocketty's the GM now, no getting around that, but lets not pretend like he's been capable of doing anything more than WK could have done. Wake me when the losing stops, would you?

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:29 PM
I think it's dramatically hard to re-shape a team in less than 2 years...which was all Krivsky was given.


But Wayne did dramatically reshape the team. Who is left on the ML roster from when Wayne arrived? Dunn, Jr, Harang, and Freel. Perhaps Weathers too. Wayne chose to retain Weathers and Freel. Wayne chose to extend Harang and Dunn. Other than Jr, Wayne pretty much chose everyone on the current roster. Yes, you can make the argument that Wayne had his hand tied with Jr, but he chose the other 24 guys on the 2008 opening day roster.

reds44
07-09-2008, 02:29 PM
Youíre not wrong because losing is good or noble or anything else, but youíre wrong because 82 wins is no different than 70 wins. ďWait til next yearĒ may not be as hollow when you win 82 games, but itís still the wrong goal.
While I agree with the point of the entire article, this is just false. The difference between 82 wins and 70 is, 12 more wins. If you win 12 more games, it means you are a better team. I don't want the idea of having a winning season stop us from trading Griffey, Dunn, Weathers, etc, but there is no doubt there is a difference.

All reports indicated there is little to no market for Griffey and Dunn. While Griffey should and will be gone, if the Reds can sign Dunn for under market price I would be all for it. He's go for 40/95-100 every year, and it's one less OF hole we would have to fill.

dougdirt
07-09-2008, 02:29 PM
I don't see how Cast interfered with Wayne's plan.

Again, did Cast force Wayne to sign Agon, Stanton, extend Freel, trade for Maj and Cormier, etc.. Wayne said he wanted Dusty. It seems to me Cast let Wayne get virtually any player he wanted.. Wayne just chose unwisely.

In 2006, when the team was in pseduo-contention, it's perfectly reasonable for the owner to tell his GM to shoot for the postseason. Then when the W-L record deterioated, it's reasonable for the owner to be disappointed.

If Wayne was not on board with Cast's plan, why did he accept the job? It seems like Wayne promised Cast the moon to get the job and then went off on his own, doing whatever he felt like. And then, to compound the problem, he kept Walt and others out of the loop. I'm amazed Wayne was given as much rope as he was given.

When Cast was first coming in as owner he was on board with Krivsky's long term approach of building from within. Within 2 years Cast was all over the 'win now' thing and Krivsky was gone. We have an owner that is reactionary to a fault and its going to hurt this team unless his reaction is to really open up his wallet.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:34 PM
CTrent has captured what a bunch of us on here certainly have been saying with regard to the May 25th debacle. The piper is STILL being paid with regard to that day.


Harang struggled prior to that relief appearance. I doubt it has anything to do with it. We are saying a relief appearance 6 weeks ago is still affecting Harang? Harang probably throws between starts anyhow. Something like this once a year is no big deal.

Now I agree that after that extra inning game, they should've called up someone from the minors to give everyone an extra day of rest, but I doubt that one relief appearance is the cause of Harang's troubles. He's not that fragile.

Throughout baseball history, starters have sometimes been used on an emergency basis in extra innings like that. Heck, it happens every year at the allstar game.. A starting pitcher will pitch on 2 days rest in an allstar game.. Yet, I can't recall anyone else that was ruined by it. Harang says he's fine.
More than likely, he needs to make some adjustments, just like Arroyo needs to work on his mechanics. I only heard part of the game last night, but it seemed like Harang was walking a bunch of people..

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:40 PM
Frankly every move that Jocketty made above were ones that Krivsky in all likelihood would have made at some point. You're complete disdain of Wayne Krivsky continues to peak out. Jocketty's the GM now, no getting around that, but lets not pretend like he's been capable of doing anything more than WK could have done. Wake me when the losing stops, would you?

No.. the premise was that Wayne would've done better than Walt since the changing of the guard. I doubt it. As I said, there's not a whole lot of options out there right now. The Reds aren't exactly loaded with players that contenders want (and the Reds are willing to trade).

If Walt does nothing at the trade deadline, that's grounds for criticism. If he just spins the wheels of this team over the winter, then I'll be angry with him as well.

Jpup
07-09-2008, 02:43 PM
No.. the premise was that Wayne would've done better than Walt since the changing of the guard. I doubt it. As I said, there's not a whole lot of options out there right now. The Reds aren't exactly loaded with players that contenders want (and the Reds are willing to trade).

If Walt does nothing at the trade deadline, that's grounds for criticism. If he just spins the wheels of this team over the winter, then I'll be angry with him as well.

anybody could have done better than Walt. He has not done anything. Wayne was a lot of things but he was never immobile.

edabbs44
07-09-2008, 02:43 PM
And yet when someone mentioned that the Brewers and the Rays went with rebuilding (and I'm not sure how you "rebuild" the Rays when they've never had a winning season) under new ownership, it's overlooked that they had worse records than the Reds for the first three years under new ownership (Brewers finished 6th three years straight after ownership changed in 2002; the Rays have been last their entire life, I think, and have had new ownership since 2004/05. I don't want to rehash the WK was working towards it, but the foundation has been laid, this bad start notwithstanding, and it's not unlike the direction of many other clubs who have "rebuilt".

Simply because the words were never spoken, didn't mean it was not happening. And when you have a fan base who's sick and tired of it (having been both Bengals and Reds fans), you're not about to stand up and say we're going to suck for a few years. You have to be able to sell the product regardless.

Wayne would have been cut more slack if they really were rebuilding. While they may have been "paying attention to the future", they weren't rebuilding in the true sense of the word.

Rojo
07-09-2008, 02:47 PM
Krivksy extended Dunn to the end of Jr's. contract and then didn't talk to him (I don't think) this offseason.

During that time he picked up a bunch of vets - many of whom didn't work out -- to play until the end of 2008.

He also injected the org with some young players -- Bray, Phillips, Volquez, Burton, Thompson, Cumberland, Henry, Herrara, Manuel, Maloney and others .

I think he was lining up for the post-Jr era while trying to keep the team from falling down in 2006-2008, costing him his job.

REDREAD
07-09-2008, 02:48 PM
When Cast was first coming in as owner he was on board with Krivsky's long term approach of building from within. Within 2 years Cast was all over the 'win now' thing and Krivsky was gone. We have an owner that is reactionary to a fault and its going to hurt this team unless his reaction is to really open up his wallet.


How do you know that Wayne sold Cast on a 5 year rebulding plan (or whatever Wayne's plan was). I have never seen this published.

It could've been just the opposite. Cast could've told Wayne in the interview that he wanted to win now, and Wayne said "I'm your man". Wayne could've believed that all he had to do was bring in Joe Mays, Cormier, Maj, Stanton, etc in here and the team would be a winner.

I'm purely speculating, but Cast seems on board with the longterm approach. He's spending a boatload of money on the draft and international signings. However, Cast also spent a lot of money on FAs, under the belief it would help the current W-L record as well. A lot of money spent by Wayne on the ML roster was wasted.

People think that building for the future and improving the ML team simultanously is not possible. It is possible.

Anyhow, show me where Cast said he was onboard with a few fifth or sixth place finishes while the team rebuilt. If Cast was on board with that plan, then why spend all that money on FAs? It makes no sense to load up on 3-4 million dollar middle relievers (Stanton/Weathers) if you plan on finishing in 5th place..

reds44
07-09-2008, 03:01 PM
When Cast was first coming in as owner he was on board with Krivsky's long term approach of building from within. Within 2 years Cast was all over the 'win now' thing and Krivsky was gone. We have an owner that is reactionary to a fault and its going to hurt this team unless his reaction is to really open up his wallet.
The worst thing that happend to Wayne Krivsky was "contending" in the 2005 season. If they Reds win 72 games that year he still has his job, IMO. Once Cast got a sniff of the playoffs, he had to get there now.

Rojo
07-09-2008, 03:14 PM
The worst thing that happend to Wayne Krivsky was "contending" in the 2005 season. If they Reds win 72 games that year he still has his job, IMO. Once Cast got a sniff of the playoffs, he had to get there now.

Yes. In retrospect that 2005/2006 team was a mirage - Lopez was an all-star, Kearns was going to be the next Ralph Kiner, Dunn was entering prime years, Jr was back, Encarnacion was an RBI-machine, Coffee was a closer-in-training and some guy named Elizardo was doing an impersonation of a big-league pitcher. But most of it evaporated.

Spring~Fields
07-09-2008, 05:11 PM
When Cast was first coming in as owner he was on board with Krivsky's long term approach of building from within. Within 2 years Cast was all over the 'win now' thing and Krivsky was gone. We have an owner that is reactionary to a fault and its going to hurt this team unless his reaction is to really open up his wallet.


I agree, that is my interpretation and understanding also.

Spring~Fields
07-09-2008, 05:11 PM
Yes. In retrospect that 2005/2006 team was a mirage - Lopez was an all-star, Kearns was going to be the next Ralph Kiner, Dunn was entering prime years, Jr was back, Encarnacion was an RBI-machine, Coffee was a closer-in-training and some guy named Elizardo was doing an impersonation of a big-league pitcher. But most of it evaporated.

That is a nice way of describing what can or often occurs.

membengal
07-09-2008, 05:43 PM
Harang struggled prior to that relief appearance. I doubt it has anything to do with it. We are saying a relief appearance 6 weeks ago is still affecting Harang? Harang probably throws between starts anyhow. Something like this once a year is no big deal.

Now I agree that after that extra inning game, they should've called up someone from the minors to give everyone an extra day of rest, but I doubt that one relief appearance is the cause of Harang's troubles. He's not that fragile.

Throughout baseball history, starters have sometimes been used on an emergency basis in extra innings like that. Heck, it happens every year at the allstar game.. A starting pitcher will pitch on 2 days rest in an allstar game.. Yet, I can't recall anyone else that was ruined by it. Harang says he's fine.

More than likely, he needs to make some adjustments, just like Arroyo needs to work on his mechanics. I only heard part of the game last night, but it seemed like Harang was walking a bunch of people..

Yes. That's what I am saying. I am saying that using Harang like they did was an insane, unnecessary, pyrrhic, risk. There was no defensible reason for it in the short or long term.

Whatever else we can glean, we can know that putting THAT kind of unusual workload on a valuable arm was ill-advised, to put it mildly. No, he had not been great before that, but he had not been tragic either. His K:BB has cratered since then, his overall BB rate is way up, and his command has been absent. Do I KNOW that is directly related to his crazy outing on May 25? No. But is it a REASONABLE guess? Yes. Yes it is.

Put it this way. There is ZERO chance that an organization with its head not stuffed in an unfortunate place risks an asset like Harang in that situation. Certainly Boston, Arizona, Oakland, Atlanta, and any of a number of other not stupid organizations would not have done what the Reds did there.

That Harang is faltering now? Color me unsurprised. Between the waaaaaaaaayyyyyy too heavy workload he took under Narron, which made him worrisome heading into this year as was, and that silly usage in May, none of this is surprising.

mth123
07-10-2008, 04:20 AM
Here's the thing about Harang and his relief outing. Harang volunteers and goes 4+ effective innings an a game that the Reds were trying to win. I really see no problem with that. He was cruising and seemed fine. I think the team should try to win that game.

The real issue was that the team should have added a couple of bodies the next day to give everyone some rest and pushed them all back a day or two. I thought that these situations that leave the team short on arms after a rough stretch is the exact reason you sign a bunch of AAAA arms and stash them in AAA. Not sure if the team still had Shearn, Lehr or Brower at that point, but Pettyjohn and Adkins are still around. They should have got them up for a week while Harang and Volquez took a couple of extra days off. If not them, then Maloney et al would have done. Its called a spot start. Dick Pole should know, that was basically his lot in life as a big leaguer.

Spring~Fields
07-10-2008, 08:30 AM
Here's the thing about Harang and his relief outing. Harang volunteers and goes 4+ effective innings an a game that the Reds were trying to win. I really see no problem with that. He was cruising and seemed fine. I think the team should try to win that game.

The real issue was that the team should have added a couple of bodies the next day to give everyone some rest and pushed them all back a day or two. I thought that these situations that leave the team short on arms after a rough stretch is the exact reason you sign a bunch of AAAA arms and stash them in AAA. Not sure if the team still had Shearn, Lehr or Brower at that point, but Pettyjohn and Adkins are still around. They should have got them up for a week while Harang and Volquez took a couple of extra days off. If not them, then Maloney et al would have done. Its called a spot start. Dick Pole should know, that was basically his lot in life as a big leaguer.

I think that they might have still had them. They were probably trying to save a buck $

jojo
07-10-2008, 08:54 AM
I think that they might have still had them. They were probably trying to save a buck $

I doubt the pittance associated with calling up an AAAA arm factored into the decision. I think they thought they had a better chance of winning by doing what they ended up doing.

Rather than pinching pennies I think their "sin" would more likely be a a lack of seeing past their noses (i.e. looking past the upcoming week)....

lollipopcurve
07-10-2008, 09:03 AM
If not them, then Maloney et al would have done. Its called a spot start.

Fogg was on the roster, and he was certainly well-rested after having gone all of 3-4 hitters in the 18 inning marathon. That's part of the function of the "long man." Take a spot start when it's needed. The team needs a guy like that in the pen, for insurance.

Falls City Beer
07-10-2008, 09:05 AM
Notice it only took Sternberg's Rays' team two years to turn it into a contender. Not Wayne's 5 year plan.

Spring~Fields
07-10-2008, 09:09 AM
Notice it only took Sternberg's Rays' team two years to turn it into a contender. Not Wayne's 5 year plan.

They're doing good work.

The Reds have been on an eight year plan, how are we looking. :)

OnBaseMachine
07-10-2008, 10:53 AM
Notice it only took Sternberg's Rays' team two years to turn it into a contender. Not Wayne's 5 year plan.

Because the Rays were loaded with talent whereas the Reds weren't when Krivsky took over.

Big Klu
07-10-2008, 10:54 AM
Fogg was on the roster, and he was certainly well-rested after having gone all of 3-4 hitters in the 18 inning marathon. That's part of the function of the "long man." Take a spot start when it's needed. The team needs a guy like that in the pen, for insurance.

That's what Davey Johnson used to call, "the sixth starter".

WebScorpion
07-11-2008, 11:22 AM
Finishing last is PART of a rebuilding plan. You can rebuild better with the first pick in every round each year than with the 10th. The first thing you've got to do is get your draft and development teams down right. If you can't pick talent and then develop that talent then you'll have to buy a team through Free Agency and that's not happening in Cincy's budget. In the first year you go heavy into high school picks, then the second you go with approximately a 50/50 mix, and the third and subsequent years you lean more toward college players and you trade everything you've got that can get any part that will mature at the same time as your young glut of highly touted players. That's rebuilding. Finishing in the middle of the pack actually HURTS the rebuilding effort. If my team isn't in the playoffs, I want one of the first three picks. Trade away anything that might cause us to win a game if you want to rebuild. Don't sign Alonso and take a #7a pick next year along with our top 3 pick too. Oh yeah...and in your glut of young players, it might be a good idea to not pick ALL left-handed batters and ALL right-handed pitchers. Like Miagi said, "BALANCE!!!"

RedsManRick
07-11-2008, 12:07 PM
Interesting point WebScorpion. Even if we tone down the concept of wanting to lose, we're still left the with point being that if you aren't pushing for the playoffs, then stop wasting resources and efforts on wins for the current season. Every thing you do should be about building out that foundation.

The only flip side of this I can see is alienating a fan base, but frankly, I don't think fans are particularly more turned off from a 68 win team than they are by a 78 win team.