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View Full Version : BP on Mesoraco



chicoruiz
07-09-2008, 01:08 PM
In today's BP, Kevin Goldstein has some disheartening things to say about Mesoraco. It's premium content so I won't quote it, but the gist of it is that he looks heavy ("puffy" is the word used, I believe), and that he's lost his bat speed, which used to be a key strength of his.

Reaction from those who've seen him?

medford
07-09-2008, 01:22 PM
I haven't seen him play, but my reaction to seeing pictures of him recently was "wow, he's sure toned up since I last saw high school pictures of him". Anyhoo, all I care about is production, I'm guessing w/ his bonus money and new found freedom away from mom & dad, it would be easy for him to get into bad eating habits (ie the freshman 15). If he has any sense of awareness as he matures, he'll develop into solid eating/conditioning habits to benefit his career for the long term.

Steve4192
07-09-2008, 01:59 PM
the gist of it is that he looks heavy ("puffy" is the word used, I believe)

I haven't seen him play, but my reaction to seeing pictures of him recently was "wow, he's sure toned up since I last saw high school pictures of him".

I would like to make it very clear that I am not making any accusations, but as an avid gym rat and weightlifter, my alarm bells go off whenever I hear about a guy who has gained muscle tone/mass described as 'puffy'. In weightlifting parlance, that is code for 'I think that guy is on the juice'.

Having seen pictures of Goldstein, I don't think he has ever seen the inside of a gym, so I am hoping this was just an unfortunate turn of a phrase rather than a thinly veiled accusation.

IslandRed
07-09-2008, 06:44 PM
Having seen pictures of Goldstein, I don't think he has ever seen the inside of a gym, so I am hoping this was just an unfortunate turn of a phrase rather than a thinly veiled accusation.

For what it's worth, he was directly quoting an unnamed scout.

medford
07-09-2008, 11:51 PM
steve, my observation is actually the opposite, again based only on the 2 pictures I've seen of Mes. One was at his draft party, where my first thought was "wow, this kid has some work to do on his body, he's definently "Puffy"", then sometime recently, when I thought he had lost a lot of that chunkiness I saw in HS. Perhaps the original picture was just a bad photo, don't really know. That is all I can offer short of an actual eye witness account of Mes.

Blitz Dorsey
07-10-2008, 02:46 AM
I love how some writer from BP quotes an unnamed source and we're suppose to take it as gospel. How many times did this guy watch Mesoraco play? Once? Twice? 10 times? Of course that important bit of information was left out of the "story."

And then we have Reds fans who actually watch the Dragons play live who say that Mesoraco has actually "toned up" his body if anything, a direct contradiction to the BS in BP.

IslandRed
07-10-2008, 10:37 AM
I love how some writer from BP quotes an unnamed source and we're supposed to take it as gospel.

So don't. :p: I actually like his "scout scoop" columns, you just have to take them for what they are, kind of like the trade-deadline rumor mills. Some good stuff and some BS and no one's pretending to know which is which.

redsof72
07-10-2008, 05:46 PM
There have been several scouts this year who have commented that Mesoraco looks a bit chubby. He will have a much better idea of how to train for a full season by the time this season ends and he has the work ethic to address this. I don't see it as a big issue. He has much bigger issues than that. There is too much focus on Mesoraco to begin with. Despite his decent offensive numbers, he should have stayed in Sarasota all year so they could work hard on his defense daily and then played for the GCL club. In the long run, that would have been what would have benefited him the most. Mesoraco's defense is the issue, not his bat or his conditioning. But when you talk to scouts about how bad he is defensively, they point out that he came from a weak baseball state and is one year out of high school.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 06:07 PM
I'm not sure how big of a deal this is, but the thing about Mesoraco is that although he was taken out of HS, he is old for his class.

He turned 19 the same month he graduated HS, so he we are now barely a year into his pro career and he's already 20 years old. The complete opposite was the case for a guy like Grady Sizemore who wasn't even 18 when he graduated HS.

When you consider he's probably going to be on the slow track (as a catcher) and the fact that he's struggled offensively so far (sub .650 OPS in 340+ PA's), he may be an old man before he ever helps out the big club. Unless, of course, he's lights out defensively, in which case, his bat won't matter.

At this point in time, it's hard for me to consider him a top 10 prospect in this system. I think the only reason he will still be considered one by the likes of BA (probably around 8th, 9th, or 10th) is because they rated him high out of HS and he was a 1st-rounder.

dougdirt
07-10-2008, 06:17 PM
Or he will be rated that high because of his tools and projection. Which is the same reason he was drafted where he was drafted at.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 06:21 PM
Or he will be rated that high because of his tools and projection. Which is the same reason he was drafted where he was drafted at.

Yes, but the point is that unless he's Johnny Bench defensively, he's many years away. So, at what point will he slide out of the top prospect lists.

I think next year will be his last year for making the Reds top 10. I hope I'm wrong.

dougdirt
07-10-2008, 06:22 PM
Yes, but the point is that unless he's Johnny Bench defensively, he's many years away. So, at what point will he slide out of the top prospect lists.

I think next year will be his last year for making the Reds top 10. I hope I'm wrong.

Doesn't really matter if he is many years away. The whole term prospect means what are the prospective chances he has to be a productive major leaguer. Unless that changes, how long it takes him to get there means nothing as long as he projects to be good when he does get there.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 06:43 PM
Doesn't really matter if he is many years away. The whole term prospect means what are the prospective chances he has to be a productive major leaguer. Unless that changes, how long it takes him to get there means nothing as long as he projects to be good when he does get there.

It does matter when he is not hitting.

Due to his struggles with the bat, his prospect status has changed since he was drafted.

dougdirt
07-10-2008, 06:49 PM
It does matter when he is not hitting.

Due to his struggles with the bat, his prospect status has changed since he was drafted.

Not so long as he projects to hit one day.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-10-2008, 07:00 PM
Not so long as he projects to hit one day.

When he's an old man.

dougdirt
07-10-2008, 07:04 PM
When he's an old man.

Eh, depends on your definition for 'old man'. If he is in the majors at 25, its plenty fine given he was a catcher.

Eric Davis
07-10-2008, 07:57 PM
I saw Mesoraco play up in Dayton about a month and a half ago and I saw nothing about the guy that struck me as chubby. Not in the least as a matter of a fact. He's not skinny by any means but has the typical body of a catcher and struck me as a very good athlete for the position.

cincyinco
07-10-2008, 09:32 PM
Sigh... The kid is 20? Big deal he's not an all world hitter yet. We got years to go with this kid. Its the same thing over and over. Please. Just because a catcher isn't hitting in a ball at the age of 20, in his first full professional year does not mean he now projects to hit "when he's an old man". Preposterous.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-11-2008, 01:25 AM
Sigh... The kid is 20? Big deal he's not an all world hitter yet. We got years to go with this kid. Its the same thing over and over. Please. Just because a catcher isn't hitting in a ball at the age of 20, in his first full professional year does not mean he now projects to hit "when he's an old man". Preposterous.

Sigh.

Nobody said he should be an all-world hitter yet.

The point was, that very soon he won't be considered a big deal of a prospect. He's struggled for a year and he's already a year ahead (age-wise) as every other high school kid taken in 2007. It's nothing to get upset over. It is what it is.

And 24-26 is considered "old man" as far as prospects go and it's especially considered "old man" for a first round pick.

Relax.

SteelSD
07-11-2008, 02:18 AM
Eh, depends on your definition for 'old man'. If he is in the majors at 25, its plenty fine given he was a catcher.

If you're a team that's fine waiting for six years for a top-20 First Round draft pick to make the Show, then you've pretty much screwed up that draft pick.

Unless, of course, the pick in question is a Catcher who might just have turf-thumb-pitchers-league-toe.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:25 AM
If you're a team that's fine waiting for six years for a top-20 First Round draft pick to make the Show, then you've pretty much screwed up that draft pick.

Unless, of course, the pick in question is a Catcher who might just have turf-thumb-pitchers-league-toe.

Well thats certainly one mans opinion. I will take Mesoraco being a starting catcher in the big leagues by the time his age 25 season rolls around, which would have him starting the season at age 24 in the majors and holding that job down. If he played another position, I would probably be along that ride with you.... but at catcher, thats not really that old at all.

11larkin11
07-11-2008, 12:19 PM
Geovany Soto was OPSing .629 when he was 20 in High A Ball, in his 3rd year in pro ball. He is now 25 and in his first full Major League season. He OPSed .734 in AAA in his 6th year of pro ball and had to go back for the whole next year until September callups. That .629 OPS year in A+ he had 7 passed balls and 9 errors total. Mes is currently OPSing .675 in his second pro season in A-. Sure, Soto was an 11th round pick, but I'm just pointing out some facts...

HokieRed
07-11-2008, 12:38 PM
Jeff Clement is 25 and now beginning to find himself in the major leagues. He put up over a 900 OPS in the Midwest League at 21 but he had played three years at USC prior to that. They pushed him up the next year to AAA and his OPS fell off almost 300 points. He'd gotten up to the level he hadn't seen yet. More important than Mes's being 20 is the fact he's only one year out of high school. I'd say he's holding his own and right on course for a big league arrival at 23 or 24. If he's to make it, I don't think he'll need to be 25. I think we'll know about him before that age and, to me, everything to date looks positive. High school baseball to the Midwest League is a huge jump.

11larkin11
07-11-2008, 12:49 PM
Jeff Clement is 25 and now beginning to find himself in the major leagues. He put up over a 900 OPS in the Midwest League at 21 but he had played three years at USC prior to that. They pushed him up the next year to AAA and his OPS fell off almost 300 points. He'd gotten up to the level he hadn't seen yet. More important than Mes's being 20 is the fact he's only one year out of high school. I'd say he's holding his own and right on course for a big league arrival at 23 or 24. If he's to make it, I don't think he'll need to be 25. I think we'll know about him before that age and, to me, everything to date looks positive. High school baseball to the Midwest League is a huge jump.

I don't mind him being in the Majors at 25 if he takes that long to refine his game like Soto did. I will wait an extra year or two if Mes is going to be like Soto.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-11-2008, 01:04 PM
Geovany Soto was OPSing .629 when he was 20 in High A Ball, in his 3rd year in pro ball. He is now 25 and in his first full Major League season. He OPSed .734 in AAA in his 6th year of pro ball and had to go back for the whole next year until September callups. That .629 OPS year in A+ he had 7 passed balls and 9 errors total. Mes is currently OPSing .675 in his second pro season in A-. Sure, Soto was an 11th round pick, but I'm just pointing out some facts...

Honestly, Soto's story is very interesting. Looking at his numbers all through the minors and them "BAM!" he's Mike Piazza.

Something doesn't add up. If you know what I mean.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 01:06 PM
Honestly, Soto's story is very interesting. Looking at his numbers all through the minors and them "BAM!" he's Mike Piazza.

Something doesn't add up.

He never worked on hitting really. He spent most of his time working on being a catcher and not a hitter. Thats how most catchers do it and why most catchers don't hit.

11larkin11
07-11-2008, 01:10 PM
Honestly, Soto's story is very interesting. Looking at his numbers all through the minors and them "BAM!" he's Mike Piazza.

Something doesn't add up. If you know what I mean.

Oh believe me, when I saw his HR totals throughout his career as 1-3-2-9-4-6 to 29 in 2007, I thought the same thing. But I'm not one to accuse everyone just because of the era.

SteelSD
07-11-2008, 01:33 PM
Well thats certainly one mans opinion. I will take Mesoraco being a starting catcher in the big leagues by the time his age 25 season rolls around, which would have him starting the season at age 24 in the majors and holding that job down. If he played another position, I would probably be along that ride with you.... but at catcher, thats not really that old at all.

So, apparently, "In the majors at age 25" now includes beginning his age-24 season in the majors. And I'm sure somewhere along the line, that'll end up involving Mesoraco spending at least some time as a backup at age 23, which will surely include at least a cup o' coffee in the Show at age 22.

I guess if we just keep whittling down his time in the minors like that, we'll somehow eventually get to a respectable timetable for a top 20 amateur draft pick.

Now I'm just waiting for someone to utter the tremendous phrase, "If he hits..."

11larkin11
07-11-2008, 01:35 PM
So, apparently, "In the majors at age 25" now includes beginning his age-24 season in the majors. And I'm sure somewhere along the line, that'll end up involving Mesoraco spending at least some time as a backup at age 23, which will surely include at least a cup o' coffee in the Show at age 22.

I guess if we just keep whittling down his time in the minors like that, we'll somehow eventually get to a respectable timetable for a top 20 amateur draft pick.

Now I'm just waiting for someone to utter the tremendous phrase, "If he hits..."

Just gonna keep going back to him, Soto got two cups of coffee before finally getting the starting spot this year at 25 years old. Raise your hand if you wouldn't like Geovany Soto on this team as a 25 year old rookie right now.

princeton
07-11-2008, 01:47 PM
slow bat, fast fork?

I can relate.

BuckeyeRedleg
07-11-2008, 01:51 PM
Just gonna keep going back to him, Soto got two cups of coffee before finally getting the starting spot this year at 25 years old. Raise your hand if you wouldn't like Geovany Soto on this team as a 25 year old rookie right now.

Stories like Soto's are pretty rare. He is a freak.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:04 PM
So, apparently, "In the majors at age 25" now includes beginning his age-24 season in the majors. And I'm sure somewhere along the line, that'll end up involving Mesoraco spending at least some time as a backup at age 23, which will surely include at least a cup o' coffee in the Show at age 22.

I guess if we just keep whittling down his time in the minors like that, we'll somehow eventually get to a respectable timetable for a top 20 amateur draft pick.

Now I'm just waiting for someone to utter the tremendous phrase, "If he hits..."

Well, Mesoraco's age 25 season, he will begin it at age 24 and turn 25 in June. Since its before July 1st, its counted as his age 25 season.

dougdirt
07-11-2008, 02:07 PM
Stories like Soto's are pretty rare. He is a freak.

Yes and no. Catchers that don't hit for a while in the minors then something clicks at an older age happens. Not too often does it happen at the rate that Soto's did, but before last season in AAA the guy looked like nothing special at all, slugging over .405 0 times once he left rookie ball.

princeton
07-11-2008, 02:13 PM
slow bat fast fork.

the scout who sent in the "Good field no hit" report really should have sent this one too.

he could have done an entire collection of four word assessments:



"runs fast thinks slow"

"not worth gas money"

"throws like a girl"

and my two favorites: "worse than Juan Castro" or "pitches like a Red"

redsmetz
07-11-2008, 03:41 PM
the scout who sent in the "Good field no hit" report really should have sent this one too.

he could have done an entire collection of four word assessments:



"runs fast thinks slow"

"not worth gas money"

"throws like a girl"

and my two favorites: "worse than Juan Castro" or "pitches like a Red"

My friend who pitched in the minors for the Reds in the 1950's, was a teammate of Dave Bristol's. Bristol would fill out the manager's reports to send back to Cincy and told Don that the manager had written that Don had a major league arm and a minor league head.

SteelSD
07-12-2008, 12:17 AM
Well, Mesoraco's age 25 season, he will begin it at age 24 and turn 25 in June. Since its before July 1st, its counted as his age 25 season.

I'm waiting for you to begin giving out prospect ages in months rather than years. 'Kinda like how parents do it with their toddlers.

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 12:23 AM
I'm waiting for you to begin giving out prospect ages in months rather than years. 'Kinda like how parents do it with their toddlers.

Talk to major league baseball about that one. When someone has a season at 'age 26' its because they turned 26 before July 1st of that season. So while someone may be the only 26 year old to hit 45 HR and 50 doubles in a season, they easily could have hit 20 of those HR as a 25 year old before turning 26 on June 19th and hitting the rest after that. So if you don't like how its classified, feel free to get in contact with major league baseball and see if they will change it.

SteelSD
07-12-2008, 12:32 AM
Just gonna keep going back to him, Soto got two cups of coffee before finally getting the starting spot this year at 25 years old. Raise your hand if you wouldn't like Geovany Soto on this team as a 25 year old rookie right now.

You can keep going back to Soto all you like. But then, as you noted, Soto was also an 11th round pick and then an outlier to boot. Basically, you've found one guy you hope Mesoraco can be like, but when trying to reasonably project a player, picking an outlier as your best example of what you expect a player to turn into simply isn't a good idea.

In fact, it's simply a really long version of "If he hits..."

SteelSD
07-12-2008, 12:52 AM
Talk to major league baseball about that one. When someone has a season at 'age 26' its because they turned 26 before July 1st of that season. So while someone may be the only 26 year old to hit 45 HR and 50 doubles in a season, they easily could have hit 20 of those HR as a 25 year old before turning 26 on June 19th and hitting the rest after that. So if you don't like how its classified, feel free to get in contact with major league baseball and see if they will change it.

There's no significance in Mesoraco being 24 years old and 9 months versus being 25 years old and zero months. I understand how it's "classified" by MLB, but your attempt to frame Mesoraco as a 24-year-old reaching the Show after 6 minor league can be equally met with criteria that involves him being 25 years old at the beginning of his age-26 season (7 years after he was drafted). Your original comment:


If he is in the majors at 25, its plenty fine given he was a catcher.

I gave you a year break on that 7th year, so you've been attempting to split hairs exactly why?

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 01:03 AM
Whats it matter? I think if he makes it to the show by June 2013 when he turns 25 years old it will be fine so long as he sticks at catcher.

SteelSD
07-12-2008, 01:30 AM
Whats it matter? I think if he makes it to the show by June 2013 when he turns 25 years old it will be fine so long as he sticks at catcher.

Again, if your top-20 draft pick includes a six-year developmental timeline and also includes the idea of "If he hits" and "If he sticks at catcher", you've pretty much blown the pick.

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 03:38 AM
Again, if your top-20 draft pick includes a six-year developmental timeline and also includes the idea of "If he hits" and "If he sticks at catcher", you've pretty much blown the pick.

Not if he sticks at catcher. Blowing the pick is getting nothing, ever from the pick. Blowing it is getting a 2008 version of Juan Castro. Blowing it isn't waiting a while to get a full time catcher. I know you are going to disagree, so lets just agree to disagree.

lollipopcurve
07-12-2008, 06:00 AM
Again, if your top-20 draft pick includes a six-year developmental timeline and also includes the idea of "If he hits" and "If he sticks at catcher", you've pretty much blown the pick.

What? Who establishes these absolutes about developmental timelines, top 20, etc., that declare picks to be losers before most of the development can take place? Far more arbitrary than it is authoritative.

nate
07-12-2008, 08:24 AM
Questions about all this:

1. On average, how many first round picks make the big leagues?

2. On average, how long does it take them to do it?

SoTxRedsFan
07-12-2008, 01:13 PM
Again, if your top-20 draft pick includes a six-year developmental timeline and also includes the idea of "If he hits" and "If he sticks at catcher", you've pretty much blown the pick.

That's just dumb. How can you blow a pick if they come up and produce at a premium position? I don't care how long it takes.

Patrick Bateman
07-12-2008, 01:55 PM
Because hindsight analysis is not the end all be all.

You make picks based on probabilities, and if Mes was truly a lottery ticket in all facets of the game, your odds of getting anything suck. It might work once, but in this scenario, your likely to find 10 Sardhina's.

dougdirt
07-12-2008, 02:23 PM
But I don't think anyone believes he is a 'lottery ticket'.

Steve4192
07-12-2008, 02:57 PM
1. On average, how many first round picks make the big leagues?


About 1/3 make it to the majors and carve out a decent career, another 1/3 make it to the majors for a few seasons as a bench warmer before washing out, and the final 1/3 never make the show.

Those percentages are for first rounders as a whole. The percentages for top 10 picks are significantly better than that, which means that guys taken after #10 tend to fall short of the 33%-33%-33% distribution. The odds of a #20 pick making a legitimate impact in the majors is somewhere in the realm of 20% to 25%.

Net, if Mesoraco can carve out an unspectacular Dan Wilson type of career, he will have been a successful pick.